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Mena clean energy pipeline climbs to 246GW

14 February 2025

 

Some 47.4GW of clean and renewable energy power generation plants are under construction across 15 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region.

Based on the latest available data from MEED and MEED Projects, a further 199GW are in the study, design, prequalification and bid stages.

The total pipeline of 246GW is close to half of renewable energy capacity additions globally, which stood at 510GW in 2023.

Saudi Arabia leads with some 17.7GW of renewable energy capacity under construction, mainly comprising an estimated 16.5GW of capacity from solar power plants, which were procured under a public tendering process as well as direct negotiations. Wind power accounts for the rest.

Egypt is the second-largest market, with under-construction projects including the first two units of the El-Dabaa nuclear power plant in Matrouh and some 3GW of solar and 3.8GW of wind power plants.

Iran has the third-largest clean energy capacity under construction, including over 3.4GW of hydropower and 2.4GW of nuclear power. 

The UAE ranks fourth, with a total of 3.7GW of capacity under execution. These projects include the 1.5GW Al-Ajban solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in Abu Dhabi, the 1.8GW phase 6 of Dubai’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park project, the 250MW hydropower plant in Dubai and a waste-to-energy project in Abu Dhabi.

Morocco’s capacity under construction is estimated at around 3.6GW, dominated by solar power plants, which have a cumulative capacity of roughly 2.8GW.

Overall, solar PV projects – some in combination with battery energy storage system plants – account for 32GW or close to 68% of the capacity under construction across the Mena region.

Wind and nuclear account for 14% and 10% of the total, respectively, with hydropower plants accounting for 8.4%.

An estimated 9.4GW of the projects under execution, mostly solar, are due to be completed this year. A further 11.9GW are set to be delivered in 2026, and 23GW by 2027. The rest, including the first reactors of the El-Dabaa nuclear power plant in Egypt, are expected to be completed in 2028 or beyond.

This implies that electricity from clean and renewable power sources is set to become a substantial part of the region’s energy mix, particularly in the states that have been cited.

The known solar PV installed capacity in the Middle East, for instance, is estimated to be around merely 18GW as of 2023. 

It could also imply that the targets for clean and renewable sources to account for 50% or more of the electricity production mix in certain Mena countries may be achievable, with the region’s largest economy, Saudi Arabia, aiming to procure 20GW of renewable energy annually until it reaches the new target of up to 130GW by 2030 “subject to demand growth”.

Pre-execution

The pipeline of pre-execution projects is equally impressive, potentially yielding an electricity production capacity of close to 200GW, if all these planned projects are implemented.

Most of these projects are envisaged to be grid-connected and exclude captive renewable energy plants catering to industries or enterprises, or those announced as part of integrated green hydrogen and ammonia production facilities.

Saudi Arabia has the largest pre-execution pipeline of over 83GW. This includes around 55GW of capacity in the conceptual stage, catering to the Neom gigaproject, the $500bn masterplan northwest of the kingdom that aims to be powered 100% by renewable energy.

Saudi Arabia’s clean and renewable energy pipeline, inclusive of the Duwaiheen nuclear plant project, is larger than the planned capacity across the next four largest markets: Egypt, Morocco, the UAE and Iraq.

Notably, roughly a quarter of the pre-execution projects in Saudi Arabia are in the prequalification and bidding stages, whereas a mere 3.2% of the planned projects in Egypt have so far reached these stages.

In Morocco, a project called Xlinks, which aims to deliver clean energy to the UK, accounts for about half of the renewable energy capacity being planned.

In the UAE, some 19% of the $16.4bn pre-execution projects are in the prequalification and bid stages. The bulk of capacity in the design stage includes the next phase of the Barakah nuclear power plant as well as the round-the-clock solar PV and battery energy storage system (bess) plant facility in Abu Dhabi.

The 5.2GW solar /19GWh bess project in Abu Dhabi, estimated to require an investment of $6bn, is expected to reach financial close in Q2, which means it will rapidly move from design to execution. Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), the project’s main developer, has already selected the engineering, procurement and construction and other sub-contractors for the project.

Risks and opportunities

The massive renewable capacity buildout across the major Mena region is expediting the procurement of bess plants, whether independently by the transmission and distribution (T&D) entities – as exemplified by recent projects in Saudi Arabia – or in combination with a solar PV project, such as the UAE’s 1GW round-the-clock solar project.

Batteries will help boost the flexibility of the electricity grids as more intermittent renewable power is added and overall demand increases.

The rapid decline in battery unit prices has helped bring several bess projects with substantial capacities to the market over the past 12 to 18 months, and this pace is expected to further accelerate in the future.

Yet, batteries alone will not be sufficient to address the peak electricity demand, particularly across the GCC states, which some experts say falls between 6:00 pm and 6:00 am, especially in the summer months, coinciding with a period when solar PV plants do not produce power and where only a very limited wind capacity may be available.

“There is no doubt batteries can help address that gap, but maybe not to the extent some may envisage,” notes a Dubai-based industry source.

“The issue is not the unit price of batteries, but the volume that you need to address that gap and how much it would cost. Depending on the configuration and the volume of batteries installed, you have bess systems that can provide five to six hours of storage today,” he explains. “The big question is how will the grid cope with the surge in electricity demand at 6 am?”

Given that the cost of lithium-ion batteries was considered highly prohibitive as recently as a year ago, the expectation is that the scale of new projects and demand will continue to drive rapid innovations to enable more flexible grids during the energy transition.

READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW

Trump unleashes tech opportunities; Doha achieves diplomatic prowess and economic resilience; GCC water developers eye uptick in award activity in 2025.

Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:

> WATER & WASTEWATER: Water projects require innovation
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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    On 21 April, as a fragile ceasefire held between the US and Iran, the Trump administration halted a $500m shipment in cash headed for Iraq, as it sought to clamp down on Iranian-backed Shia militias in the country. 

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    In July 2023, the CBI banned 14 banks from conducting dollar transactions in a crackdown on dollar smuggling. In February 2024, it banned a further eight banks from dollar transactions as part of a crackdown on fraud and money laundering.

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    The recent halt in US dollar cash shipments has nevertheless added pressure to Iraq’s parallel currency market gap, says Lucila Bonilla, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.  

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    Ratings agencies see the US move on Iraqi dollar use as a challenge, but one that might not prove too onerous.

    “Iraq can overcome a short-term war as it has $100bn of reserves and its debt profile is bearable,” says Gilbert Hobeika, a director at Fitch Ratings.

    “But a longer-term conflict will hurt Iraq as the economy is reliant on oil revenues and government involvement, while facing at the same time risk from the US stopping delivery of US dollars.”

    How persistent the pressure proves will depend largely on the duration of the Hormuz shock and how the relationship with the US evolves.

    “Forming a new government that is palatable to the US could ease the pressure, though Iraq’s protracted government formation process adds uncertainty to that timeline,” says Bonilla.

    The US-Iran war is putting even more pressure on banks.

    “There are uncertainties with regard to depositors,” says Hobeika. “The public sector banks have weak management and governance structures. Financial reporting is weak, and that puts pressure on asset quality and capitalisation.”

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    State-heavy system

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    “Private banks have struggled to compete in a market with limited opportunities, small deposit bases and a narrow range of products, often focusing on very basic activities,” says Lea Hanna, an analyst at Moody’s.

    “In 2019, we had a wave of Islamic banks getting bans on dealing with US dollars – reducing what had been a primary source of business.”

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    Financial reform

    The CBI has attempted to introduce reforms to the banking system, as part of a wider effort to enable it to channel funding to the private sector.

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    However, of Fitch’s rated banks, just two – state-owned Trade Bank of Iraq and Mansour Bank, a subsidiary of Qatar National Bank – met the full capital requirement.

    “While a lot of banks managed to increase their capital, a number of them didn’t and have been struggling to improve their systems and compliance with anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering regulations,” says Hobeika.

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    But the harder work remains, argues Bonilla: state-owned banks still carry high levels of non-performing loans, weak governance and a history of politically directed lending, while private sector credit remains among the lowest in the region.

    “The stakes are high as the IMF estimates that a comprehensive reform of the financial sector, alongside broader governance and regulatory changes, could double Iraq’s non-oil growth potential over the medium term, adding around 4 percentage points to GDP,” says Bonilla.

    “For now, the reforms address the plumbing. The structural transformation of a banking system to serve the private sector is still largely ahead.”

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    Any deposit withdrawals seem to be more related to the introduction of a digital custom system ASYCUDA (Automated System for Customs Data) aimed at helping the government collect revenues, which saw a lot of traders trying to bypass the custom charges.

    “This drove some exporters or traders to source US dollars outside the banking system, in the parallel market, to avoid stricter requirements and up-front payment of customs duties. That has now eased,” says Hanna.

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    Algeria’s state-owned oil and gas company, Sonatrach, is taking advantage of concerns about global gas and crude supplies to sign deals and push ahead with major upstream projects.

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    Last month, Libya’s rival legislative bodies approved a unified state budget for the first time in more than 13 years. The Central Bank of Libya confirmed on 11 April that both chambers had endorsed the budget, calling it a key step towards restoring financial stability after prolonged division.

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    Libya’s downstream sector was also disrupted this month by a fresh outbreak of violence. On 8 May, military clashes damaged buildings and vehicles, and forced the country’s largest operating refinery and a nearby oil port to shut for two days. On 10 May, Azzawiya Oil Refining Company, operator of the Zawiya facility, said it had lifted the state of emergency, allowing work to resume.

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    While Libya has struggled to capitalise on the current period of higher oil and gas prices, Algeria has significantly increased activity across its hydrocarbons sector.

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    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
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    Saudi Arabia-based industrial investment company Rawas and China’s Zhejiang Hailiang Company have signed a joint-venture agreement to establish a copper products manufacturing plant in the kingdom.

    The joint venture, in which Zhejiang Hailiang will hold 51% and Rawas 49%, plans to invest about $566m in the facility, which will be built near Dammam port in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

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    Shenzhen Stock Exchange-listed Zhejiang Hailiang is a subsidiary of Hailiang Group, one of the world’s largest copper pipe manufacturers and exporters.

    Rawas is based in Riyadh. Obeikan Investment Group and Al-Khorayef Group are among its founding shareholders, while other investors include Al-Muhaidib Group and Mohammed Abunayyan Investment Group.

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