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  Geopolitics tests Dubai property with hotels hardest hit

  28 July 2026

  Dubai’s residential market cooled sharply in the second quarter of 2026, and the hospitality sector recorded its steepest downturn in years, according to US-based real estate research firm CBRE’s latest UAE market review. Office and industrial real estate, however, continued to defy a weaker macroeconomic backdrop, the report said.

  The figures, published on 28 July, mark a turning point for a residential sector that has driven much of Dubai’s post-pandemic growth story.

  Transaction volumes fell 29% year-on-year to just under 37,000 sales in the second quarter, down from more than 51,000 in the same period last year.

  Total transaction values dropped even further, to AED88bn ($24bn) from close to AED154bn ($42bn) in the second quarter of 2025.

  Rents have moved into negative territory faster than prices. While sales values were still up 1.9% year-on-year, average residential rents fell 2.6% annually and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter.

  About 18,000 new units were completed in the first half of the year, adding to supply just as demand and transaction activity were softening.

  The contrast with Abu Dhabi is stark. The capital’s residential values rose 21.6% year-on-year, powered by 24.4% growth in apartment prices, while rents climbed a further 3.6%.

  Sales values reached AED32bn ($8.7bn), up 150% on the same quarter last year, with transaction volumes up around 80%.

  Off-plan sales accounted for roughly 83% of deals and 85% of value, underscoring investor appetite for new launches even as Dubai’s own off-plan pipeline slows.

  Hospitality bears the brunt

  The hospitality sector recorded the most pronounced downturn of any asset class tracked in the review. Regional geopolitical disruption weighed heavily on international travel demand and airline operations through the first half of the year, with UAE-wide hotel occupancy down 27.7 percentage points year-on-year to June and revenue per available room (RevPAR) down 31.8%, according to CoStar data cited in the report.

  Dubai absorbed the sharpest declines, reflecting its greater reliance on international visitor flows, while Abu Dhabi held up comparatively better on the strength of domestic demand and events-led tourism.

  Operators have responded with staycation packages, domestic tourism campaigns and refurbishment programmes aimed at protecting market positioning ahead of an anticipated recovery in international arrivals.

  Office and industrial hold strong

  Away from housing and hotels, the picture is markedly different. Dubai office rents rose 13% year-on-year, with prime rents up 16% and occupancy at about 94%, as demand concentrated in DIFC, Tecom and DMCC continues to outpace the delivery of new Grade A stock.

  Abu Dhabi’s office market performed even more strongly, with rents up nearly 16% and occupancy at 96%, driven by ADGM-based financial services firms including hedge funds.

  With less than 300,000 square metres (sq m) of new office space due between 2026 and 2027, both emirates face a supply squeeze that is likely to sustain rental growth into next year.

  Retail occupancy remained resilient at about 98% in Dubai and 95% in Abu Dhabi despite softer tourism flows and shifting consumer spending, with Dubai rents up around 3% year-on-year.

  A new wave of retail supply is in the pipeline, led by Al-Khail Avenue in Dubai and the first phase of Saadiyat Grove in Abu Dhabi.

  Industrial and logistics stand out

  Underpinned by government-led localisation programmes, the UAE industrial exports reached AED262bn ($71bn) in 2025, with Operation300bn and Make it in the Emirates (MIITE) continuing to draw manufacturing and logistics investment.

  Abu Dhabi secured AED48.5bn ($13.2bn) in commitments through MIITE alongside new logistics agreements at Kezad. At the same time, Dubai recorded strong rental growth across Dubai Industrial City, Dubai Investments Park and National Industries Park.

  CBRE now forecasts a marginal UAE GDP contraction of 0.04% for 2026, reflecting disruption to trade, tourism and aviation, though it expects a strong rebound in 2027 as regional conditions normalise.

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  READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

  Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

  Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

  > AGENDA: Gulf aviation ambitions face uncertain future > AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions > MARKET FOCUS: Levant recovers in three speeds  > INDUSTRY REPORT: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery > INTERVIEW: EtihadWE prepares roadmap for future projects  > PROJECTS MARKET: Mena project momentum holds despite conflict  > DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise > SAVINGS: Retirement creates multibillion-dollar opportunity for region   > LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital change

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  Ashghal tenders northern Smaisma infrastructure consultancy

  28 July 2026

  

   

  Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has issued a tender for consultancy services related to infrastructure development in the northern Smaisma area.

  The tender was issued on 19 July, with a bid submission deadline of 8 September.

  The scope covers construction supervision consultancy services for package seven (A and B).

  According to local media reports, the scope of package seven A includes the airstrip road, the coastal road and connections to the existing Al-Khor Expressway, spanning an area of about 18.5 kilometres.

  Ashghal floated the main contract tender for this package in March, as MEED reported.

  The contract duration is four years from the start of construction.

  Package seven B includes foul sewer infrastructure, drainage networks and road development works spanning more than 1.3km.

  The latest tender follows Ashghal’s announcement of contract awards for 12 new projects, with a total value exceeding QR4.5bn ($1.2bn).

  According to a notice published on its website, these include six building projects, most notably the redevelopment of Hamad General Hospital, with a contract value of about QR1.1bn ($301m).

  Other projects awarded include the construction of a post office building in Al-Thumama; renovation works at the Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club and the Qatar Equestrian Federation; and the implementation of Phase 4 of the Al-Uqda Equestrian Complex development.

  In the roads and infrastructure sector, four projects have been awarded, led by packages one and two of the road and infrastructure development works in Izghawa and Al-Thumaid.

  The awards also include a landscaping project and an air-conditioned walkway at Qatar University, as part of broader public-facilities improvement initiatives.

  UK analytics firm GlobalData forecasts that Qatar’s construction industry will expand by 4.3% in 2026, supported by investments in renewable energy and transportation infrastructure.

  Meanwhile, the Planning & Statistics Authority reports that Qatar’s construction value-added grew by 6.6% year on year in the first half of 2025.

  GlobalData also expects the industry to grow at an average annual rate of 4.6% in 2027-29, supported by investment in construction, energy and infrastructure projects.

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  Contractor wins Emaar Oasis The Address villas deal

  28 July 2026

  

   

  Dubai-based Dutco Construction has won a contract to build the third phase of Emaar’s Address Villas Tierra at The Oasis development.

  The contract was awarded by Dubai-based real estate developer Emaar Properties.

  The scope comprises the construction of 199 Address-branded four-, five- and six-bedroom villas.

  Local firm Mirage is the project consultant. Barajeel Engineering Consultants is the architect of record.

  Site preparatory works are under way, and the project is slated for completion in 2028.

  Dutco is already active at The Oasis. In April last year, Emaar Properties appointed Dutco Construction for the main works on the Mirage package of The Oasis development.

  The Mirage package involves the construction of about 202 residential villas and is expected to be completed by the end of 2027.

  Local firm X Architects is the project consultant, and Kristina Zanic is the sub-consultant.

  Emaar announced The Oasis project in June 2023. The estimated $20bn development will comprise 7,000 residential units, including mansions and villas.

  The overall development will cover more than 9.4 million square metres. The developer has said that more than 25% of the land will be dedicated to lakes, canals, parks, jogging tracks, green spaces and other amenities.

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  Kuwait signs $16bn oil pipeline infrastructure deal

  27 July 2026

  Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

  Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has signed a $16bn infrastructure agreement with a consortium comprising Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR to establish a joint venture covering the country’s domestic and export crude oil pipeline network.

  Structured as a 20.5-year lease-and-leaseback transaction, the deal covers all 13 of KOC’s crude oil pipelines, spanning about 320 kilometres.

  Known as Project Peregrine, the transaction is set to become Kuwait’s largest energy infrastructure partnership and the largest foreign direct investment in the country’s history.

  Under the agreement, KOC will retain a 51% ownership stake in the newly formed joint venture, while Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR will collectively own the remaining 49%, with each investor holding an equal share. KOC will maintain full ownership, operation and maintenance of the pipeline system.

  The joint venture will lease the pipeline usage rights from KOC and grant the company exclusive rights to operate the network in exchange for a volume-based tariff. The agreement does not affect Kuwait’s authority over crude production or refinery throughput.

  The transaction is expected to generate $7.85bn in upfront proceeds for KOC, supporting Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s capital investment programme, including its goal of increasing crude oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day by 2035.

  KPC deputy chairman and CEO Shaikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said the agreement marks a milestone for Kuwait’s energy sector while preserving state control of critical infrastructure.

  “Project Peregrine represents the largest foreign direct investment in Kuwait’s history while preserving full national ownership and operational control,” Al-Sabah said.

  The agreement also marks the first time major global institutional investors have committed long-term capital to Kuwait’s midstream infrastructure.

  Representatives of Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR said the investment reflects confidence in Kuwait’s energy sector and long-term infrastructure strategy.

  The transaction remains subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions.

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  Indrajit Sen
• 
  GCC banks prove resilient amid turmoil

  27 July 2026

  

   

  Gulf banks are proving adept at navigating the economic and geopolitical turbulence that comes with operating in the region. These skills have come to the fore this year, as regional lenders draw on stable funding profiles and ample capital and liquidity buffers that protect them from near-term credit risks. 

  GCC banks’ fundamentals have proved remarkably resilient to the Iran-related turmoil, assuming the intensity of the February-April stage of the military conflict does not resume.

  There have not been any significant outflows of external funding. While anecdotal evidence suggests some depositors briefly moved funds out of the region at the start of the war, ratings agency S&P Global notes that their return reflects confidence that the war will prove short-lived.

  Funding strength

  Metrics for the early part of the year revealed a robust picture. Domestic deposits held up strongly in the first quarter of 2026, total GCC domestic deposits rising by 16.9% in year-on-year terms, compensating for the decline in interbank funding. 

  State-linked deposits grew at a particularly rapid pace, led by the UAE and Kuwait, which offset decelerating private-sector deposit growth in those countries. 

  Domestic deposits accelerated in April, a pointer to GCC governments’ proactive stances in shielding their banking systems from undue stress. The inflow of public deposits accelerated quite significantly in this period, although that pace will likely subside as conditions gradually normalise. 

  Such deposits continue to underpin GCC banks’ wider performances. “Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region. Government deposits typically make up 20%-30% of the banking sector deposits. That is really important as these are sticky deposits,” says Redmond Ramsdale, head of Middle East ratings at Fitch Ratings.

  Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region

  Gulf states’ heavy reliance on public sector and government-related deposits has proved valuable in the current environment, anchoring banks’ funding profiles and helping reduce potential risks.

  Fund outflows have not materialised to any significant degree. “We had some anecdotal evidence of funds being withdrawn, but they returned in the following weeks,” says Ramsdale.

  Solid fundamentals

  GCC banks entered the conflict period in strong shape. According to S&P, domestic private sector credit growth in the region remained robust in the first quarter – the annualised growth rate was 8% at the end of March. 

  Core capital buffers are about 15%-16% – higher still for the top lenders – ensuring total loss-absorbing capacity stays below 9% of equity. Regulatory ratios exceed relevant thresholds, providing a significant buffer, according to ratings agency Moody’s.

  “If you look at the whole region, the proportion of the lending book that is non-performing, on a weighted average basis, sits around 2%,” says Badis Shubailat, a senior analyst at Moody’s. 

  “Against this solid level of asset quality, you have a cushion of provisions for expected losses that more than covers the existing stock of problem loans, which provides a strong first line of defence.”

  Then, as a second line of defence, are core capital buffers that remain high by global standards, with levels around 15%-16%. Put together, this explains why the banks are sitting on comfortable positions in terms of loss-absorption capacity.

  At the end of Q1 2025, the top 45 GCC banks reported an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 17%, with coverage ratios of 155.8%, according to S&P. 

  “Credit losses are at historical lows of 50 basis points (bps) for the region, and there are very good provisioning buffers – all of which helps to mitigate the negative consequences of the expected asset quality deterioration,” says Tatjana Lescova, director and lead analyst at S&P.

  According to Shubailat, the fact that the conflict impact on GCC banks has not been as pronounced as on other sectors reflects that over the past three years – and until right before the conflict started – the region as a whole, and its banking systems, had demonstrated remarkable resilience. In contrast, major advanced economies were struggling with inflationary pressures and subdued economic growth. 

  “This was visible in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two largest economic diversification engines in the region, which happen to also represent more than two-thirds of total banking system assets,” says Shubailat.

  Limited exposure

  Gulf banks have also been helped by the fact that those economic sectors most impacted by conflict – tourism, hospitality, energy – do not generally form a large part of their collective loans books. 

  “There will be weaker performance of borrowers in the most obvious affected sectors like infrastructure, tourism, logistics, transport and real estate, but tourism is actually a pretty small exposure for the banks – less than 3% of loan books,” says Ramsdale. “There might be a bit of pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are less able to cope with the pressures than the larger corporates, but again, for banks, SME lending is not very big.” 

  Banks’ exposure to the real estate and construction sectors is highest in Qatar – 31% of total credit at the end of March – while the exposure in Kuwait stands at 25%, with Saudi Arabia at 16% and Bahrain at 12%, notes S&P. UAE banks have been consistently reducing their exposure to these sectors, down to 13% at the end of March, compared to 21% at year-end 2020. 

  Moody’s Shubailat says that developers in the UAE sit on solid balance sheets and strong revenue backlogs, while banks’ exposure to the construction sector has declined. “So the quantum is lower, the credit quality of the exposure is better, and the banks are sitting on higher capital and provisioning buffers,” he notes.

  Gulf bankers are not resting on their laurels. They know that even if bad loans have been limited, they cannot forestall the possibility of problem exposures further down the road. 

  “Asset quality deterioration is a risk that we expect to materialise later in the year. This is because of weaker macro expectations, and negative impact on some of the corporate sectors, albeit varying across different GCC countries,” says Lescova.

  On average, for the region, S&P expects 20 bps of increases in credit losses for this year. When it comes to asset quality, the regulatory forbearance measures announced by three central banks will help alleviate the impact.

  Policy support

  Central bank moves have added another layer of support. Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom.

  For example, in mid-March, the Central Bank of the UAE launched a five-pillar resilience package that relaxed capital buffer stipulations, representing more than $272bn in support. 

  Kuwait eased liquidity requirements, raised maximum lending limits and released a portion of the capital conservation buffer to expand refinancing and credit quality absorption capacity. Qatar, meanwhile, has cut the reserve requirement from 4.5% to 3.5% for deposits.

  Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom

  Such measures were not a response to a banking crisis, says Ramsdale. “Some of the support packages that we have seen coming out of the central banks, in the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, were preventative support measures,” he says.

  “They were designed to boost confidence and limit that pass through from temporary deposit volatility. It was not to do with acute banking stress.”

  Market confidence

  Larger banks are better positioned to cope with straitened economic times. They are generally more geographically diversified beyond their domestic markets, and international operations have historically been a growth driver for them. 

  “When there is increased market uncertainty, larger banks may benefit from a flight-to-quality movement, with deposits moved away from smaller banks. Based on Q1 results, only a few smaller banks have reported a contraction in the customer deposits,” says Lescova.

  The GCC’s largest banks, including Al-Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation, Saudi National Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Qatar National Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirates NBD, remain highly profitable, although they may not perform as strongly as they would have had the conflict not occurred.

  “We already expected some softening in profitability before the conflict, because of the normalisation of the cost of risk upwards from incredibly low levels over the last three years, [which] were driven by a very strong recovery performance from the banks,” says Shubailat. 

  “In turn, this current situation adds a layer of pressure to the normalising profitability story by increasing provisioning needs in light of the recent economic shocks,” he adds.  

  Confidence in GCC banks was evident from the outset of the conflict. In early April, Emirates NBD priced a $750m AT1 capital issuance, the first international debt capital markets transaction by a GCC issuer since late February.

  “The first ceasefire saw things like private placements start happening again, and that slowly translated into the opening up of public markets. 

  “Emirates NBD was one of the first banks to open up that market, and we are seeing the largest banks issuing again,” says Ramsdale.

  The operating environment for Saudi Arabia is ranked BBB+ – a strong position, all things considered. Ramsdale notes that Riyadh’s reprioritisation of large projects associated with Vision 2030 “means growth will probably be slightly slower in Saudi Arabia”, but adds: “That is actually a good thing, because growth was so strong it was beginning to pressure funding, liquidity and capitalisation. 

  “Taking off some of that pressure is a positive for banks.”

  Growth prospects

  Stronger earnings performances will allow banks to bankroll mergers and acquisitions (M&A), building on inorganic routes to growth. Within the past year, the National Bank of Bahrain and Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait (BBK) have agreed to explore a merger, while BBK has also absorbed HSBC’s retail banking business.

  Emirates NBD is reported to be looking to acquire HSBC’s business in Turkiye, a country where the Dubai bank already has a presence through its takeover of DenizBank in 2019. It also grew its stake in India’s RBL Bank this year to 60%. 

  “Certainly the big banks will remain opportunistic over M&A – where the value comes at the right price, then they are interested. And if the big international banks are going to pull out, they tend to have some of the best-quality assets, so you can understand why regional players might be interested in them,” says Ramsdale.

  Such moves should provide reassurance that, despite recent challenges, GCC banks are well placed to ride out the remainder of 2026 and resume the positive trajectory  that was evident before the Iran war shook the region. 

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  James Gavin