meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Local contractor wins $143m Jeddah sewage contracts

    19 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) has awarded two sewage network contracts worth a combined SR536.3m ($143m) to local contractor Civil Works Company.

    The projects will be implemented over 32 months from site handover and will serve northern Jeddah districts.

    The first contract, valued at SR278.5m ($74.3m), covers incomplete main lines and secondary sewage networks serving parts of the Al-Bashair, Al-Asala and Al-Falah neighbourhoods.

    The scope includes pipelines ranging from 200mm to 800mm in diameter with a total length of about 54.8 kilometres (km).

    The package also includes sewage tunnels with diameters ranging from 600mm to 1,800mm and a total length of approximately 6.5km. Works will also serve the Taybah, Abhar Al-Shamaliyah and Al-Hamdaniyah districts.

    The second contract is valued at SR257.8m ($68.8m). It covers the implementation of main lines and sub-networks to serve part of the Al-Hamdaniya neighbourhood.

    The works include pipelines ranging from 200mm to 1,500mm in diameter with a total length of about 78.5km. The scope also includes horizontal drilling works for sewage tunnels with diameters from 1,200mm to 1,400mm and a total length of approximately 205 metres.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15699620/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia prequalifies firms for gas transmission grids

    19 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry has prequalified companies to develop natural gas distribution networks in five industrial cities in the kingdom on a build-own-operate (BOO) basis.

    The industrial zones earmarked are Al-Kharj Industrial City; Sudair City for Industry and Business; and the First, Second and Third Industrial Cities in Jeddah, the Energy Ministry said in a statement.

    The contractors prequalified to bid for the natural gas transmission grids BOO scheme include eight standalone firms and seven consortiums:

    • East Gas (Egypt)
    • Natural Gas Distribution Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Egyptian Kuwaiti Advanced Operation and Maintenance (Saudi Arabia)
    • Modern Gas (Egypt)
    • Saab Energy Solutions (Saudi Arabia)
    • Sergas Contracting (Saudi Arabia)
    • Bharat Petroleum Corporation (India)
    • UniGas Arabia (Saudi Arabia)
    • Best Gas Carrier / Khazeen / Mubadra (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al Sharif Contracting (Saudi Arabia) / Anton Oilfield Services Group (China) China Oil and Gas Group
    • Hulul (owned by Saudi Arabia’s National Gas and Industrialization Company) /Al-Fanar Gas Group (UAE)
    • Indraprastha Gas (India) / Masah Contracting (Saudi Arabia)
    • Expertise Contracting / PGL Pipelines (UK)
    • National Gas Company (Egypt) / Egypt Gas (Egypt)
    • Taqa Arabia (Egypt) / Taqa Group (UAE)

    The Energy Ministry has set a deadline of 23 April for these prequalified contractors to submit technical bids.

    The ministry added in its statement that it has identified a total of 36 industrial cities in Saudi Arabia for gas infrastructure development.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15699582/main0334.png
    Indrajit Sen
  • Veolia wins Jordan water services contract

    18 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    France's Veolia has signed a four-year performance-based management contract with the Water Authority of Jordan to support water and wastewater services in the country’s northern governorates.

    Under the contract, Veolia will provide operations, maintenance and management services to Yarmouk Water Company, the public utility responsible for water supply and wastewater services in the region.

    The agreement covers Irbid, Jerash, Ajloun and Mafraq, an area spanning nearly 30,000 square kilometres and covering about 3 million people.

    The scope includes water and wastewater operations, maintenance, billing and collection, and customer service.

    According to the firm, the performance-based structure prioritises measurable improvements, including service delivery, cost efficiency and revenue management.

    The company said it will deploy technical and management specialists to support operations, rehabilitation works and investment initiatives.

    The contract builds on Veolia’s existing operational role in Jordan’s water sector. The company operates the Disi-Amman scheme, which supplies about 100 million cubic metres of drinking water a year, under an operations and maintenance contract.

    It also operates the Al-Samra wastewater treatment plant, which produces about 133 million cubic metres of treated wastewater annually for agricultural reuse.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15684109/main0535.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • SAR tenders phosphate rail project management deal

    18 February 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) has floated another tender inviting firms to bid for a contract covering the project management consultancy services for its Phosphate 3 rail programme.

    The tender was issued on 15 February with a bid submission deadline of 5 April.

    The contract duration is 54 months.

    The latest tender follows SAR floating a multibillion-riyal tender to double the tracks on the existing phosphate transport railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The tender – covering the second section of the track-doubling works, spanning more than 150 kilometres (km) – was issued on 9 February. The bid submission deadline is 15 April.

    Earlier this month, MEED reported that SAR received bids from contractors on 1 February for the project’s first phase, which spans about 100km from the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, new utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track.

    The scope also covers support for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The tender notice was issued in late November with a bid submission deadline of 20 January.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    MEED understands that SAR is expected to tender a total of four packages for the phosphate railway line.

    The other packages expected to be tendered shortly include the depot and the systems package.

    In 2023, MEED reported that SAR was planning two projects to increase its freight capacity, including an estimated SR4.2bn ($1.1bn) project to install a second track along the North Train freight line and construct three new freight yards.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km-long freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. There, it diverges into a line southwards to Riyadh and a second line running east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and the freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and facilitate increased industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including the construction of a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15684025/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • PIF-backed firm signs worker accommodation deal

    17 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia's Smart Accommodation for Residential Complexes Company (Sarcc) has signed an agreement with Riyadh-based Mawref Company to develop a 12,000-bed worker accommodation project in North Riyadh.

    The project will cover about 120,000 square metres (sq m), with a total built-up area of 150,000 sq m.

    The development is expected to cost over SR669m ($178m), with the first phase slated for completion in 2029.

    Sarcc is backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle.

    The agreement follows Sarcc signing another agreement in September last year with privately-owned local firm Tamimi Global Company to explore collaboration in developing worker accommodation facilities in the kingdom.

    The PIF launched Sarcc in October 2024 with the aim of developing and operating staff housing and accommodation assets in the kingdom.

    Sarcc will develop and operate the staff accommodation facilities at major construction projects in Saudi Arabia.

    The company will seek opportunities to invest in the sector to strengthen staff housing standards. Sarcc will also look to engage the private sector by enabling investment and partnership opportunities in sectors including construction, catering, transportation and retail.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15672262/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal