meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Morocco to invest $300m in Casablanca port expansion

    9 July 2026

    Marsa Maroc, Morocco’s biggest port operator, has announced that it will invest MD3bn ($300m) to expand container-handling capacity at the Port of Casablanca, following the grant of a 20-year extension to its concession for operating Container Terminal 3 (TC3).

    The concession extension will be undertaken through Marsa Maroc's subsidiary, TC3PC.

    Marsa Maroc will increase TC3’s capacity from 600,000 to 900,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by 2030.

    The wider programme is expected to lift the Port of Casablanca’s overall container capacity to more than 2 million TEUs.

    Planned works include extending quay infrastructure, modernising cargo-handling equipment and reconfiguring storage areas at the two container terminals operated by Marsa Maroc at the port.

    The company said that these upgrades are intended to improve operational efficiency and enhance cargo throughput.

    The latest announcement follows Marsa Maroc's unveiling of a MD21bn ($2.1bn) investment programme in March, as it looks to reinforce its position as a leading regional ports player through to the end of this decade.

    Marsa Maroc reported consolidated revenue of MD5.7bn ($578m) in 2025, a 16% rise from MD5.8bn ($500m) a year earlier.

    The company attributed the growth to increased volumes handled at its terminals, as well as a broader range of logistics services.

    Operationally, cargo throughput climbed to more than 67 million tonnes, up 6% year-on-year, and a record for the group.

    Container volumes also hit a new milestone, topping 3 million TEUs for the first time, consolidating Marsa Maroc’s standing as Africa’s fourth-largest container operator.

    Marsa Maroc is the fourth-largest listed firm in Morocco by market capitalisation, according to UK-based Drewry Maritime Research.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588652/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Riyadh tenders Quality Valley mixed-use PPP project

    9 July 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, has tendered a contract to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology & Quality Organisation's headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The firms have been allowed until 8 October to submit their proposals.

    Known as the Quality Valley Riyadh project, the public-private partnership (PPP) scheme will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    In May, MEED reported that 59 firms had expressed interest in the contract to develop the project.

    Unless otherwise stated, the interested companies are local. They now include:

    Developers / real estate developers:

    • Abdulrahman Saad Alrashid & Sons (Artar)
    • Ajdan Real Estate Development Company
    • AlBawani
    • Al-Gihaz Holding
    • Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting
    • Alameriah Development
    • Alargan Projects Company
    • Al-Fahd Company
    • Alkhorayef Investment & Development
    • Al-Soliman Real Estate
    • Al-Saedan Real Estate
    • Asyad Holding Company
    • Arabian Construction Company (UAE)
    • Business Deal Company
    • Ezdihar Real Estate Company
    • Hay Developments
    • Heyazah Real Estate Development
    • Kinan International 
    • Ladun Investment Company
    • Lamar Holding (Bahrain)
    • Ledar Investment
    • Liwan Real Estate Development
    • Mada International
    • Naif Alrajhi Investment
    • Pan Kingdom Real Estate
    • Refad Investment & Real Estate Development
    • Retal Urban Development Company
    • Al-Mozaini Real Estate
    • Safari Group
    • SkyBridge (US)
    • Sumou Real Estate
    • Tatweer
    • Technical Development Company
    • Telad Real Estate
    • Zamil Group
    • Zeoof Real Estate Investment & Development

    Contractors:

    • Al-Kifah Holding Company
    • BEC Arabia
    • Buna Al-Khaleej Contracting Company
    • Saudi Binladin Group
    • Fanar Arabian International
    • International Hospitals Construction Company
    • Mohammed Ali Al-Swailem Trading & Contracting (Masco)
    • Mobco Civil Construction
    • Shar Company
    • Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting Company
    • Urbas Middle East (Spain)

    Consultants:

    • Alteraz Design Architectural & Engineering Consultant
    • Dar Al-Riyadh
    • Meinhardt Group (Singapore)
    • Equity Investors
    • Ahmed Al-Thunayan Investment Group
    • Aldrees Industrial and Trading Company
    • Tanami Holding
    • Own United
    • SAH First Investment Company  
    • ​Sumou Global Investment / Poly Manners Architecture
    • Financial Services Providers​​
    • GIB Capital
    • Mefic Capital
    • SNB Capital

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities. The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period. The site covers about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers, US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are advising on the project.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17603519/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt gold project to start commercial production next year

    9 July 2026

    Egypt’s Abu Marawat gold project is on track to begin commercial production in 2027, according to a statement by the North African country’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry.

    This target was highlighted during a meeting with Abu Marawat Gold Mines Company to review and discuss the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment study for the gold mining and extraction project in the Abu Marwat area of ​​the Eastern Desert.

    Abu Marawat Gold Mines Company is the Egyptian joint-venture company set up to develop and run the Abu Marawat gold project.

    It is owned by Canada’s Aton Resources and Egypt’s Mineral Resources & Mining Industries Authority (MRMIA).

    During the meeting, Yasser Ramadan, chairman of the MRMIA, said that the Marawat project serves as a practical model for the Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry’s strategy to establish modern mining operations.

    The Abu Marwat project is located in the Arabian-Nubian Shield region of the Eastern Desert.

    The concession covers an area of more than 57 square kilometres.

    Aton Resources has been advancing the exploration and development of the Abu Marawat concession since its award in 2007, with active exploration starting on the ground in 2009.

    The meeting with Abu Marawat Gold Mines Company was attended by executives from the Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry, the MRMIA and the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, as well as representatives from the Red Sea and Qena governorates, members of the House of Representatives and local community leaders.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17603106/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Firms submit King Salman airport project prequalifications

    8 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) received prequalification statements on 1 July from contractors for two new packages at King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.

    These include the construction of a permanent East-West corridor and landside access roads serving the North and South terminals.

    The scope covers the construction of roads, bridges and tunnels.

    The client is expected to float the tenders soon.

    The latest development follows KSIADC's selection of three groups to deliver the Terminal 6 apron, taxiways and other airfield infrastructure at KSIA.

    KSIADC, which is backed by Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, will initially deliver the project on an early contractor involvement basis.

    In March, MEED exclusively reported that KSIADC had selected three groups for the construction of Terminal 6.

    In November last year, MEED reported that KSIADC was targeting mid-2026 to award the contract for the construction of Terminal 6.

    MEED reported in May 2025 that US firm Bechtel Corporation had been appointed as the delivery partner for the terminals at KSIA.

    According to local media reports, KSIADC’s acting CEO, Marco Mejia, said the project developer has completed the project’s masterplan.

    The reports added that Terminal 6 will boost the airport’s capacity by 40 million passengers.

    The project is expected to be delivered before the start of Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588533/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • WEBINAR: Saudi Giga Projects: Market Update for Q3 2026

    8 July 2026

    Webinar: Saudi Giga Projects: Market Update for Q3 2026 
    Tuesday 21 July 2026 | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Saudi projects market outlook and giga projects update
    • 2026 contract awards, project activity and market performance
    • Giga project reprioritisation, funding allocation and delivery progress
    • Key project announcements, milestones and market developments to watch
    • Major contracts awarded across construction, infrastructure and utilities
    • Upcoming tenders and contract award opportunities over the next 6–12 months
    • Geopolitical risks and their impact on project execution and investment
    • Progress across NEOM, The Red Sea, Diriyah, Qiddiya and New Murabba
    • Major non-giga project opportunities and growth sectors across Saudi Arabia
    • Short-, medium- and long-term outlook for the Saudi projects market
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Yasir Iqbal, MEED's construction editor

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588750/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal