meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Populous wins Bahrain Sports City contract

    21 April 2026

     

    US-based engineering firm Populous has won a BD5m ($13.5m) contract for the Sports City development at Sakhir in Bahrain.

    The contract was awarded by Bahrain’s Ministry of Works, Municipalities Affairs & Urban Planning.

    The scope covers pre-contract consultancy services, including finalising the masterplan and internal infrastructure, completing phase 1A design works and preparing tender documents.

    Populous is a specialist sports venue designer that formerly operated as part of HOK Group.

    The contract was first tendered in 2021, when Populous emerged as the sole bidder.

    At the time, it was reported that Sports City would include Bahrain’s largest sports stadium and a multi-purpose indoor sports arena.

    The project is expected to provide renewed impetus to Bahrain’s construction and transport sector, which has struggled in recent years, with the total value of awarded contracts falling for a third consecutive year.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, about $400m-worth of contracts had been awarded in Bahrain by the end of October last year – less than half the $1.2bn recorded during the same period the previous year.

    The sector has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Before 2020, Bahrain consistently awarded more than $2bn in contracts annually, peaking at nearly $4bn in 2016.

    Bahrain’s construction industry is forecast to record average annual growth of 4.9% in 2026-29, supported by investments in transport infrastructure and renewable energy projects aligned with Bahrain’s Economic Vision 2030.

    Vision 2030 includes the BD11.3bn ($30bn) Strategic Projects Plan, unveiled in October 2021, encompassing 22 national infrastructure projects. It also includes plans to create five new cities by 2030: Fasht Al-Jarm, Suhaila Island, Fasht Al-Azem, Bahrain Bay and the Hawar Islands.

    Growth over the forecast period is also expected to be driven by investments under the National Renewable Energy Action Plan, which targets a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035, compared to 2015 levels, and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16487784/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Entries now open for MEED Projects Awards 2026

    21 April 2026

    Enter the awards

    The MEED Projects Awards in association with Mashreq 2026 have officially opened for entries, inviting companies, developers, contractors and project teams to submit their projects for the region’s most prestigious construction awards.

    For over 15 years, the MEED Projects Awards have celebrated the Middle East and North Africa’s most ambitious and transformative projects, recognising technical excellence, innovation, sustainability and delivery impact. Past editions have highlighted landmark developments that set new benchmarks for the region’s built environment, including internationally recognised projects such as Burj Khalifa and Louvre Abu Dhabi.

    “The MEED Projects Awards are the gold standard for recognising outstanding achievements in construction across Mena, showcasing the region’s technical and design excellence while bringing the industry together to celebrate and connect over the very best projects of the year,” said Ed James, head of content and research at MEED.

    “As a long-standing partner of the MEED Projects Awards, Mashreq is proud to support a programme that is recognised for its independence, credibility and industry impact. These awards celebrate projects that set benchmarks for excellence and contribute meaningfully to the region’s development,” said Arun Mathur, executive vice-president and global head of contracting finance at Mashreq.

    Winners are chosen through a rigorous, independent judging process, led by a panel of more than 50 senior industry experts representing developers, contractors, engineers and project specialists. The awards celebrate projects across a wide range of sectors, including Building, Transport, Energy, Water, Healthcare, Education, Hospitality, Culture, Industrial, Power, Small Projects and Developments.

    Being shortlisted or winning a MEED Projects Award places a project among the region’s elite, offering regional recognition, global exposure and industry credibility.

    Submissions are now open, with full category details and entry guidelines available on the official entry platform.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16487756/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Work advances on Saudi Maaden mine renewables project

    21 April 2026

     

    Local contractor Arabian Qudra Company is advancing construction works on an integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (bess) project at the Al-Baitha bauxite mine in Saudi Arabia.

    The off-grid facility will integrate an 8MWp solar PV array with a 30MWh bess, allowing the mine to operate almost entirely on renewable energy.

    Emerge, a joint venture of Masdar and EDF Power Solutions, is developing the project, including managing financing, design, procurement, construction, operation and maintenance.

    Last August, MEED reported that Maaden Bauxite & Alumina Company (MBAC), a subsidiary of Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden), had signed a 30-year power purchase agreement with Emerge to supply its Al-Baitha bauxite mine with renewable energy.

    Arabian Qudra Company was subsequently appointed as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor, with works beginning at the start of 2026.

    The firm is a subsidiary of Abunayyan Holding Company, a privately owned Saudi industrial group.

    The project is expected to generate around 17,300MWh of electricity annually and provide a continuous 24/7 power supply. It will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 13,800 tonnes a year.

    According to projects tracker MEED Projects, construction is expected to be completed in early 2028.

    Maaden Solar 1

    Maaden is also in the early stages of developing Maaden Solar 1, potentially the world’s largest solar process heat plant. 

    MEED previously reported that US-based GlassPoint had partnered with Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment as a first step towards construction of the planned $1.5bn project.

    In 2025, Spain-headquartered Cox Energy signed a collaboration agreement with the client to participate in the project. The client had been expected to invest approximately $31.1m in the first phase of the project.

    Once complete, Maaden Solar 1 will be a 1,500 megawatt-thermal (MWth) facility. A timeline for the project remains unclear, with construction not expected to begin until at least 2027.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16487404/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Egypt to build Olympic Village project on Red Sea

    21 April 2026

    Egypt has moved to back a major new sports development on the Red Sea coast, officially assigning a 225-acre plot for a planned Olympic Village in the Red Sea Governorate.

    The site is located opposite the resort destination of El-Gouna, giving the project access to an established tourism corridor.

    The development is intended to strengthen Egypt’s ambition to become a hub for international sports tourism, with facilities designed to support large-scale regional and global championships.

    Plans include stadiums and purpose-built arenas designed to meet Olympic-level requirements, enabling the complex to accommodate multiple sports and event formats.

    To support visiting delegations and spectators, the Olympic Village is expected to include on-site hospitality facilities, including a hotel.

    The project is intended to operate as an integrated, self-contained destination capable of staging regional and international tournaments, while also leveraging the Red Sea’s year-round appeal for camps, friendlies and seasonal training programmes.

    According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, Egypt’s residential construction sector is expected to grow by 8.3% from 2026 to 2029, supported by investments in the housing sector and the government’s focus on addressing the country’s growing housing deficit amid a rising population.

    The commercial construction sector is expected to register real-term growth of 6.6% in 2026-29, supported by a rebound in the tourism and hospitality markets and an improvement in investment in office buildings and wholesale and retail trade activities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16485900/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Algeria launches oil and gas licensing round

    21 April 2026

    Algeria has launched a new bid round offering seven exploration blocks to international companies.

    The round was launched by the National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (Alnaft), which manages and regulates the upstream oil and gas sector in the country.

    The blocks are located in the regions of Ouargla, Illizi, Touggourt and El-Bayadh. Both oil and gas assets are included.

    The blocks on offer are:

    • Est Bordj Omar Driss 1
    • Illizi Centre 1
    • El-M’Zaid Nord
    • El-Borma 2
    • El-Hadjira 3
    • El-Benoud Est
    • Touggourt Sud

    Technical evaluation of bids will cover exploration, development and production optimisation plans.

    All bids – except those for Est Bordj Omar Driss 1– will also be assessed against financial criteria, including the bidder’s participation rate in financing upstream operations.

    Successful bidders will access the assets through contracts with Sonatrach, either via production service agreements or participation agreements, depending on the block.

    Algeria is currently seeing an uptick in demand for its gas exports due to the disruption to exports from Qatar and the UAE in the wake of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16478927/main.png
    Wil Crisp