Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index
31 January 2023

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.
The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.
High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.
Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.
Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.
There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector
Project potential
Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years.
The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market.
There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.
Mixed performances
The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards.
The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.
Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off.
Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.
Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.
The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge.
Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.
Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.
Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.
Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.
Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses
Facing challenges
Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-
digit fiscal deficit.
Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.
Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.
Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.
About the indexMEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets. |
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Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook11 September 2026

Saudi Arabia may not have suffered as many Iranian missile and drone strikes as some of its neighbours – Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait have all had to contend with many more during this year’s conflict – but it still feels exposed. Like other Gulf countries, Riyadh has learnt that its deep defence and economic ties to the US, which were meant to provide security and deter aggressors, have in some ways merely made it a target for Tehran.
The threats are not just from direct Iranian strikes, though. In late July, Saudi Arabia joined with the US to attack Iraqi militia groups alleged to have targeted Saudi energy sites in the preceding days.
Yemen’s Houthis are also re-emerging as a serious threat. After several years in which the conflict in Yemen was largely in abeyance, the Yemeni group has in recent months repeatedly launched attacks on Saudi airports and refineries, as well as on ships passing through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait.
From mid-July to mid-August, the Houthis carried out 16 attacks against Saudi assets, including seven oil facilities and six oil tankers, according to the conflict monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Riyadh responded with hits on Houthi targets; most notably on weapons depots and other infrastructure in the port city of Hodeidah on 24 July.
The Houthis stepped up their attacks on 8 August, firing dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Abha, Jaqzam, Khamis Mushait and Najran. The Saudi authorities said 73 civilians were injured. Major General Turki Al-Malki, a spokesman for the Saudi-dominated Coalition to Support Legitimacy in Yemen, described the Houthi attacks as “a dangerous escalation” and said Riyadh would take “all necessary operational measures” to deter further attacks.
So far, a return to a full-scale war in Yemen has been avoided, but ACLED’s Middle East analyst Sherwan Hindreen Ali warned in a report in August that, if both sides continue to escalate, the “chances for renewed full-scale war increase exponentially”.
New partnerships
The increasingly volatile nature of the region has prompted Riyadh to reevaluate its approach to security and to develop new defence partnerships with allies.
The first major step came in late July, when Saudi Arabia launched the Multinational Maritime Defence Coalition with an initial band of 13 other countries; more are expected to sign up in the coming months. The group is designed to protect shipping in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and nearby waters, with Saudi Arabia’s Rear Admiral Abdullah Bin Salem Al-Shehri as its commander.
That was followed by a trilateral mutual defence pact with Pakistan and Turkiye signed in Mecca on 7 August. Their joint defence agreement includes a provision that an attack on any one of them will be considered an attack on all three. At a meeting in Istanbul on 31 August, the partners agreed to set up a secretariat in Riyadh.
There have been other, smaller steps too. In late August, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to expand defence co-operation with France, during a visit by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al-Saud to Paris (pictured). And on 1 September, Saudi Arabia’s National Cybersecurity Authority signed a memorandum of understanding with Pakistan to strengthen cybersecurity cooperation.
Diplomatic tracks
For Riyadh, enhancing its security capabilities to deter Iran and the Islamic Republic’s allies in Yemen and Iraq is a critical issue. However, the Iran war looks unlikely to be resolved by military means alone. Indeed, Saudi officials have repeatedly emphasised their preference for a negotiated, diplomatic solution to the conflict.
The regional diplomatic efforts have been spearheaded by Pakistan, Oman and Qatar, but Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Bin Abdullah Al-Saud has also spoken on several occasions to his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi – most recently on 6 September.
One issue where Riyadh is less keen to publicly engage is in relation to Israel. When Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with the US in July covering the development of a civil nuclear power programme, the deal made no mention of Riyadh having to normalise links with Israel – a condition that previous US administrations had insisted on. That was a notable win for Saudi Arabia, although it was thrown into doubt when US President Donald Trump insisted in the following days that the deal would only proceed if Riyadh signed up to the Abraham Accords.
Trump sent the proposed nuclear deal to the US Congress for approval in late August, but administration officials reiterated at the time that the pact would only go into effect if Riyadh normalised relations with Israel – something that, in the current environment, looks extremely unlikely.
Alliance strains
Saudi Arabia’s close ties with the US have been a central element in the kingdom’s regional positioning for decades – but the combination of the Iran war and the volatile nature of the Trump administration means the strength and direction of those ties are now a matter of speculation.
The situation is made more complex by the rivalry between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, with their differing approaches to regional conflicts and diplomatic initiatives creating a strain within the GCC bloc.
Both sides have tried to change the narrative. In July, Saudi Media Minister Salman Al-Dosary and the UAE’s National Media Authority (NMA) chairman Abdulla Bin Mohammed Al-Hamed issued similar statements on social media denying any rupture between the two governments, with Al-Dosary writing that the countries were “united by a shared history and heritage, and wise leadership”.
On the broader regional stage, Saudi Arabia remains unable to fully insulate itself against the Iran war. On 31 August, the Saudi oil tanker SIDR was hit by Iranian projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the death of two crew members. On the same day, another Saudi oil tanker, the Amzan, was hit by Yemen’s Houthis off the coast of Yanbu, in the Red Sea.
Coupled with the wave of Houthi attacks on 8 September, it suggests that Saudi Arabia’s efforts to create new layers of deterrence have yet to make their mark.
Photo credit: SPA
MEED’s October special report on Saudi Arabia also includes:
> ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
> BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
> POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
> WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
> CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
> TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflicthttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19583845/main.gif -
Consultant wins Dubai Al-Maktoum airport metro link11 September 2026

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US-based engineering firm Aecom has won a design contract for the Route 2020 extension, which will start from the Expo 2020 metro station and connect with Al-Maktoum International airport’s West Terminal.
Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) awarded the contract.
The extension will run about 3 kilometres (km) and include two stations.
MEED understands the invitation to bid was issued in January, with a submission deadline in mid-March.
The existing Route 2020 metro link is a 15km-long line that branches off the Red Line at Jebel Ali metro station. The line comprises 11.8km of elevated tracks and 3.2km of tunnels, and has five elevated stations and two underground stations.
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The Gold Line will start at Al-Ghubaiba in Bur Dubai. It will run parallel to – and alleviate pressure on – the existing Red Line, before heading inland to Business Bay, Meydan, Global Village and residential developments in Dubailand.
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Saudi Arabia sets October deadline for Mecca metro design11 September 2026

The Royal Commission for Makkah City & Holy Sites (RCMC) has set a deadline of 14 October for a contract covering the initial design studies for its long-planned metro network in the holy city.
The scope includes reviewing existing studies, preparing a concept design, conducting land acquisition studies, developing an integration concept for future phases and other related studies.
The notice was issued in May, with an initial submission deadline of 5 August, as MEED reported.
In September last year, RCMC invited contractors to attend an early market engagement meeting for the project.
In an explanatory document inviting companies to attend the event, the RCMC’s General Transport Centre said it was seeking to gauge market interest in the multibillion-dollar project and obtain feedback on its proposed procurement approach.
MEED exclusively reported in June last year that the project was restarting. Current plans envisage a four-line network, named lines A-D, with 89 stations and three depots, to be implemented over three phases between 2032 and 2045.
Project scope
Stage 1 focuses on lines B and C, involving 2.4 kilometres of tunnelling under the Masar project and integration with the existing Mashaer line.
The network will run just over 62km and comprise 31 stations, 21 of which will be underground, including three iconic stations. A total of 19.5km will run through tunnels, while 41.2km will be elevated, with the remainder at grade.
The 66 required trainsets are projected to provide a daily passenger capacity of about 450,000, equating to annual ridership of 171 million.
The 84.7km-long second phase, due to be operational by 2038, will extend the two lines towards the outskirts of Mecca and includes construction of the initial inner and central segments of lines A and D.
Comprising 61.1km elevated and 18.6km underground, Phase 2 is planned to add 45 stations serving the two new lines, as well as two depots and a potential interconnection with the planned Saudi Landbridge. The 59 trainsets for Phase 2 will increase the network’s projected total annual passenger capacity to more than 500 million.
Phase 3 covers the elevated 36km extension of lines A and D and involves procurement of a further 72 trainsets, increasing the network’s ultimate passenger capacity to 1.2 million daily and 642 million annually by completion in 2045.
Associated development
The metro plan also envisages several transit-oriented developments (TODs) at different points on the route. These will typically comprise commercial, residential and retail elements to maximise the investment case.
The client’s proposed procurement approach involves three distinct packages: civil and systems works, TODs, and operations and maintenance.
The initial concept calls for some of the project to be delivered on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis, wherein the private sector, through special purpose vehicles, will part-finance, build, operate and then transfer commercially viable elements of the scheme.
The then-called Mecca Mass Rail Transit Company (MMRTC) first launched the metro project in 2013; however, the scheme has faltered for more than a decade due to funding issues, land acquisition challenges and scope changes.
The relaunch of the procurement process raises hopes that the project will now come to fruition, although it is likely to be at least 18 months before any definitive works start.
Mecca is home to Saudi Arabia’s first metro, the nine-station, 18km-long Mashaer line, which opened in 2010. It operates only seven days a year during Hajj, but carries more than 2 million pilgrims during that time.
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Consortiums submit bids for Sadara cogeneration plant11 September 2026

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At least three consortiums have submitted bids for the contract to develop and operate a cogeneration steam and power plant catering to the Sadara petrochemicals complex in Saudi Arabia.
The planned independent steam and power plant (ISPP) project will have a capacity for 400MW-450MW of combined-cycle electricity generation and 550-700 tonnes an hour of steam.
According to sources, bids were submitted for the contract at the end of August.
The consortium bidders include:
- Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) / Samsung C&T (South Korea)
- Al-Jomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia) / Albawani (Saudi Arabia) / Sepco 3 (China)
- Acwa (Saudi Arabia), Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) / Doosan Enerbility (South Korea)
Sadara Chemical Company (Sadara) is the project client. It is the downstream joint venture of Saudi Aramco and US-headquartered Dow Chemical.
The estimated $500m project includes construction of a power plant, substations, a seawater intake system and associated switchyards and switchgear.
The project will also include gas turbines and a back-pressure steam turbine, as well as facilities for steam production.
In 2024, MEED exclusively reported that Sadara had prequalified potential bidders for the project. It is understood that the request for proposals was issued towards the end of last year.
The first units at the $20bn Sadara petrochemicals complex in Jubail began production in 2016, and the complex became operational in 2017.
The Sadara complex is designed to produce more than 3 million tonnes a year (t/y) of chemicals and performance plastics, including polyurethanes, propylene oxide, propylene glycol, elastomers, polyethylene, glycol ethers and amines.
Construction is also continuing on the Najim cogeneration facility, which will supply the Amiral petrochemicals complex with up to 475MW of power and approximately 452 tonnes an hour of steam.
Previously known as the Amiral cogeneration independent steam and power plant, the project is being developed by a team comprising Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and Japanese power generation company Jera.
South Korean contractor Samsung C&T is the engineering, procurement and construction contractor for the project.
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UAE plans 150km Boring Company tunnel network11 September 2026
The UAE plans to build more than 150 kilometres of underground tunnel with US tunnelling firm The Boring Company, in a programme backed by a $3bn funding round the UAE led.
The Series D round values the Boring Company at $23bn, about four times the $5.7bn it was worth after a 2022 funding round. The UAE and affiliated investment entities led the round, which will accelerate a partnership to deploy underground infrastructure across the UAE, the firm said.
The 150km target marks a substantial expansion of the company’s footprint in the country, extending work already committed through the Dubai Loop project. It contrasts sharply with what has been contracted so far. The Boring Company has signed a construction contract with Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) for the pilot phase of Dubai Loop, covering a 6.4km route and four stations linking Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Dubai Mall. The pilot is expected to cost about AED565m ($154m), with tunnelling due to begin in the second half of this year.
The 150km figure therefore represents an ambition for the wider partnership rather than a contracted volume, with the bulk of the network yet to be tendered, designed or awarded. No timeframe has been attached to the target.
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Other investors in the round include Human Capital, Vy Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Temasek, Shamal Holding and Baron Capital. The proceeds will also fund hiring, the scaling of the company’s Loop transit systems in the US cities of Las Vegas and Nashville, and further development of its Prufrock tunnel-boring machines, which it says can operate in both soft ground and hard rock.
The RTA and the Boring Company signed a memorandum of understanding in February last year to explore developing the Dubai Loop, and the construction contract followed in February this year. In May, US engineering firm Parsons was appointed as programme manager for the pilot phase, with a scope covering independent design verification, permitting and multidisciplinary design reviews.
The appointment comes amid a broader shift towards underground construction across the Gulf, as metro, sewerage and highway works in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar increasingly default to tunnelling.
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