meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Abu Dhabi extends battery storage bid deadline

    14 March 2025

    Prequalified bidders were given a three-week extension to submit their proposals for a contract to develop and operate a battery energy storage system (bess) plant project in Abu Dhabi.

    The project client, Abu Dhabi-based utility offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec), expects to receive bids by 24 March, three weeks from the previous tender closing date, according to a source familiar with the project.

    Called Bess 1, the 400MW project will closely follow the model of Abu Dhabi’s independent power project (IPP) programme, in which developers enter into a long-term energy storage agreement (ESA) with Ewec as the sole procurer.

    The first plant will be in Al-Bihouth, about 45 kilometres (km) southwest of Abu Dhabi, and the second plant will be in Madinat Zayed, about 160km southwest of the city.

    Ewec issued the request for proposals to prequalified companies in July last year and initially set 30 November 2024 as the last day to submit proposals. 

    MEED previously reported that up to four consortiums comprising infrastructure investors, developers and contractors have been formed and are preparing to submit their proposals for the contract.

    Ewec prequalified 11 managing partners that can bid either individually or as part of a consortium with other prequalified bidders. These are:

    • Acwa Power (Saudi Arabia)
    • China Electrical Equipment International (China)
    • EDF (France)
    • International Power (Engie)
    • Jera (Japan)
    • Jinko Power (China)
    • Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco, South Korea)
    • Marubeni (Japan)
    • Sembcorp Utilities (Singapore)
    • SPIC Huanghe Hydropower Development Company (China) 
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    Ewec prequalified 18 other companies that can bid as part of a consortium. These are:

    • Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Investments Manager (UK)
    • AGP Capital (US)
    • Al-Masaood (UAE)
    • Al-Fanar Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alghanim International (Kuwait)
    • Aljomaih Energy & Water Company (Jenwa, Saudi Arabia)
    • Amplex-Emirates (local)
    • ATGC Transport & General Trading (local)
    • Amea Power (local)
    • China Electric Power Equipment & Technology (China)
    • China Machinery Engineering Corporation (China)
    • GE Capital EFS Financing (US)
    • Itochu (Japan)
    • Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo, South Korea)
    • Pacific Green (US)
    • Samsung C&T (South Korea)
    • Swift Energy (Malaysia)
    • X-Noor Energy Equipment Trading  (UAE)

    The planned facility is expected to provide up to 800 megawatt-hours (MWh) of storage capacity.

    The ESA will be for 15 years, commencing on the project’s commercial operation date, which falls in the third quarter of 2026. 

    According to Ewec, the bess project will provide additional flexibility to the system and ancillary services such as frequency response and voltage regulation.

    Global bess market

    The overall capacity of deployed bess globally is expected to reach 127GW by 2027, up from an estimated cumulative deployment of 36.7GW at the end of 2023, according to a recent GlobalData report.

    The report named Chinese companies BYD and CATL and South Korean companies LG Energy Solutions and Samsung SDI among the top battery technology providers globally.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13484751/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Indian and Spanish team wins Ras Mohaisen EPC package

    13 March 2025

    A team of India's Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Madrid-headquartered Lantania has won the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Ras Mohaisen independent water project (IWP) in Saudi Arabia.

    State utility offtaker Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) signed the water-purchase agreement contract for the project with a consortium comprising Riyadh-headquartered utility developer Acwa Power, Hajj Abdullah Ali Reza & Partners and Al-Kifah Holding Company in February. 

    According to L&T,  its Water and Effluent Treatment business division will execute the EPC contract for the desalination facility.

    The state water offtaker received two bids for the contract in April last year. The other bidder was Spain’s Acciona.

    The Ras Mohaisen IWP will be able to treat 300,000 cubic metres of seawater a day (cm/d) using reverse osmosis technology.

    It will also include storage tanks with a capacity of 600,000 cubic metres, equivalent to two operating days, intake and outfall facilities, process units and pumping stations.

    The build, own and operate project will also include electrical, automation and instrumentation systems and a solar photovoltaic plant. 

    The project is expected to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2028.

    The plant will be located in Al-Qunfudhah Governorate, about 300 kilometres south of Mecca, on the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia’s Western Region.

    The project is expected to enhance water supply chains and is intended to serve the Mecca and Al-Baha regions.

    Netherlands-headquartered KPMG acted as SWPC’s financial adviser, with UK-based Eversheds Sutherland acting as the legal adviser for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13485233/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Egypt faces complex economic reality

    13 March 2025

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13483136/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • LIVE WEBINAR: GCC Projects Market 2025

    13 March 2025

    Register now

    Topic: GCC Projects Market 2025

    Date & time: 11:00 AM GST, 20 March 2025

    Agenda:

    • Introduction and overview of the GCC projects market
    • Data-driven historical and current performance
    • Top clients and contractors
    • Assessment of main market drivers
    • Summary of the Saudi gigaprojects programme
    • Market overview by country and sector
    • Market pipeline and outlook for 2025 and beyond
    • Key trends, opportunities and challenges
    • Selected major projects to watch
    • Q&A session

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13483162/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Dubai property market rebounds in February

    13 March 2025

    Property prices in Dubai rebounded in February following a decline in January. Average property prices hit a record high of AED1,505 ($410) per square foot, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.41% or a rise of AED20.94 compared to January 2025, according to a statement from property agent Better Homes.

    The report also said there was a 17% increase in sales volume, reaching AED41bn across 14,929 transactions, marking a 15% month-on-month rise. This resurgence underscores Dubai's resilience and enduring appeal as a global property investment hub.

    The rebound comes just a month after a slight decline in property prices, which had marked the first decrease in over two years.

    In January, average prices fell by 0.57% to AED1,484 per square foot, raising concerns about market stabilisation. The February figures indicate that the market has quickly regained its momentum, driven primarily by a surge in off-plan properties, which accounted for 59% of all sales.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13483150/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman