meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Gas-fired projects drive resilience in UAE power sector

    14 October 2026

     

    The $3bn Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) project has been the UAE power sector’s standout contract award this year, accounting for the majority of the $4.17bn in awards as of early September.

    The total is well below the record $12.02bn awarded in 2025, when Abu Dhabi’s $6bn round-the-clock solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (bess) project lifted the market to record levels. However, 2026 remains broadly consistent with recent years, compared with $5.93bn in 2024 and $3.05bn in 2023.

    According to MEED Projects, generation accounted for $3.06bn across three awards, while transmission contracts totalled $1.11bn.

    Gas-fired focus

    Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) signed the power-purchase agreement (PPA) for Taweelah C in June with a consortium comprising Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), Saudi Arabia’s Al-Jomaih Energy & Water Company and Singapore’s Sembcorp Industries.

    The scale of the 2.5GW independent power producer (IPP) provides a useful lens through which to view the wider market. Although the UAE continues to expand solar generation and battery storage, it is still investing heavily in flexible thermal capacity to support rising electricity demand and a grid with significant renewable generation.

    Major gas-fired opportunities are also moving into the Northern Emirates, with state utility Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) preparing to receive offers from five contractor groups for the 2.6GW Al-Zawra CCGT project in Ajman.

    The project follows the retirement of EtihadWE’s older 200MW Al-Zawra gas plant in 2023. With Ewec acting as offtaker, the scheme also points to a wider role for EtihadWE in developing large-scale generation.

    It is understood that the Ajman project will be the first of at least three planned power plant projects procured by the utility under a new long-term roadmap for future projects across both power and water.

    Abu Dhabi’s 3.3GW Al-Nouf IPP is another major gas-fired plant moving towards execution. Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation is expected to formally sign the PPA by the end of the year, while the joint venture of Spain’s Tecnicas Reunidas and Egypt’s Orascom Construction is also set to be confirmed as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor.

    To put this into context, the deal would make 2026 the second most valuable year for power sector investment on record, eclipsing both 2017 and 2018, when contract awards in the UAE reached $7.39bn and $7.27bn, respectively.

    Solar and storage

    The UAE’s renewable procurement is increasingly combining solar generation with storage to provide electricity beyond daylight hours.

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) is preparing to award the seventh phase of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park, with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) submitting the lowest tariff for the project in July.

    China’s BYD will act as a bess supplier for the project, which combines 2,000MW of PV capacity with a 1,400MW bess designed to discharge for six hours, equivalent to 8,400MWh of stored energy.

    The storage component will allow Dewa to use more solar power after sunset, reducing the gap between daytime generation and the evening demand peak.

    The 1,800MW sixth phase is also nearing completion, with Larsen & Toubro delivering the estimated $1.5bn project for Shuaa Energy 4, the project company formed by Dewa and Masdar.

    Dewa has increased the planned capacity of the solar park to 7,260MW by 2030, from its earlier target of 5,000MW.

    Furthermore, Ewec is advancing its 1.5GW Al-Zarraf solar PV plant, with EDF and Korea Western Power Company selected as the consortium to develop the project.

    Grid expansion

    Multibillion-dollar IPP schemes have driven annual award values in recent years, while transmission work continues to provide a steadier flow of opportunities for contractors and equipment suppliers.

    Transmission awards fell to $1.11bn across 22 packages in 2026, from $2.98bn in 2025, reflecting the absence of a comparable large-scale package rather than a halt in network investment.

    Ewec and Taqa are expanding 400kV and 132kV networks across Abu Dhabi and the Northern Emirates, while Dewa continues to reinforce its cable and substation systems in Dubai.

    In September, EtihadWE received bids for a contract to carry out a techno-economic feasibility study for a proposed 2GW subsea electricity interconnector with India.

    The proposed 1,400-kilometre link would be the UAE’s first direct subsea cross-border electricity interconnector, illustrating a potential longer-term ambition to connect the UAE to wider regional and international power markets.

    Earlier this year, the GCC Interconnection Authority awarded Omexom, part of France’s Vinci Group, a contract to build a 400kV overhead transmission line between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

    In October, the UAE and Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding to advance cross-border electricity interconnection, paving the way for feasibility studies on power exchange, commercial electricity trading and the expansion of the wider GCC interconnection grid.

    Waste-to-energy

    Waste-to-energy continues to become an increasingly important part of the UAE’s infrastructure pipeline as the country seeks to reduce landfill dependence and diversify its power mix through alternative generation sources.

    Dubai Municipality recently invited developers to submit expressions of interest for its planned Jebel Ali waste-to-energy public-private partnership, a greenfield facility designed to treat up to 6,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste a day.

    According to a source, the municipality plans to prequalify developers later this year, then issue a request for proposals in the first quarter of 2027.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20582379/main.gif
    Mark Dowdall
  • Riyadh awards $1.5bn metro rolling stock contracts

    14 October 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has signed contracts worth about SR5.5bn ($1.5bn) to procure 94 additional trains for the Riyadh Metro network.

    Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom have been awarded the contracts. They cover rolling stock manufacture, onboard systems, equipment and related services.

    The procurement will increase the metro fleet from 183 to 277 trains. Deliveries are due to begin in phases in 2028, with the additional units subject to testing and operational trials before entering service.

    RCRC expects the programme to increase the network’s passenger capacity by 60%.

    The additional trains will be distributed across the six metro lines based on current demand and projected ridership.

    The Red Line will receive the largest capacity increase, at 142%, followed by the Yellow Line at 116% and the Blue Line at 60%. Capacity on the Orange and Purple lines will increase by 27% and 16%, respectively.

    Daily capacity on the Blue Line is set to increase from about 340,000 to 533,000 passengers. Capacity on the Red Line will rise from 154,000 to 370,000 passengers a day, while the Yellow Line will increase from 133,000 to more than 288,000.

    The expansion is intended to meet rising demand for public transport as Riyadh prepares to host Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup, alongside continued growth in residential, commercial and entertainment developments.

    Speaking at the 37th government press conference, RCRC chief executive Ibrahim Al-Sultan said the metro has carried more than 300 million passengers since it began operating.

    Average metro ridership rose by about 25% in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, he added.

    The wider Riyadh public transport system, including buses and the metro, is approaching 500 million passenger journeys.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20582763/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Jeddah extends bid deadline for drainage scheme

    14 October 2026

     

    Jeddah Municipality has extended the deadline for contractors to submit bids for the construction of a rainwater drainage network for the Prince Fawaz neighbourhood.

    The new deadline is 15 November. The original deadline was 12 October.

    The project aims to collect and convey rainwater away from residential streets and low-lying areas. It is valued at $60m and is intended to reduce flood risk during heavy rainfall.

    The scope includes manholes, stormwater catch basins and connections to existing manholes, as well as the restoration of road surfaces.

    Prince Fawaz is a residential district in southern Jeddah, divided into northern and southern sections.

    It is connected to the Mecca-Jeddah Expressway and Al-Harmain Road, with road improvements in the southern section designed to improve access for residents and neighbouring districts

    The municipality is also advancing a second stormwater drainage project for the first package of Zone (BC), Old Zahraa, in Jeddah Governorate. The project is valued at about $30m.

    According to a source, bids were submitted for the project on 16 September.

    The two projects are part of the municipality’s wider drainage programme, which includes the flagship King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road tunnel project.

    MEED previously reported that Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company had been selected for phases one and two of the project, each valued at about $175m, covering the construction of large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels. As of August, an official agreement had yet to be signed.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20580980/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • US initiates procurement for Expo 2030 Riyadh pavilion

    14 October 2026

     

    The US Department of State has initiated market research to procure a design-and-build contract for the US Pavilion at Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    According to procurement documents released through the US federal contracting portal, the project covers the full design, construction, exhibition fit-out, maintenance, and eventual decommissioning and removal of the national pavilion.

    The total cost for the design, construction and decommissioning packages is estimated at $55m to $65m.

    The request for information notice was issued on 9 October.

    The pavilion will be developed on plot P5.N1.B03.01 within the Expo 2030 masterplan’s Technology district, fronting the Loop of Nations corridor.

    It spans 5,368 square metres (sq m), with a maximum permitted gross floor area (GFA) of 8,052 sq m and an overall building height limit of 20 metres.

    The planned temporary structure will rise approximately three storeys and house between 5,000 and 6,000 sq m of exhibition space. The brief requires the facility to accommodate at least 23,000 visitors a day over the event’s six-month duration.

    Additional programme elements include:

    • A rooftop garden and restaurant
    • Two commercial kitchens
    • A VIP reception suite
    • Dedicated retail and administrative office space
    • Back-of-house operational areas and exterior shaded public landscaping

    Interested contractors and joint ventures have been invited to submit capability statements by 11 November. Bidders must demonstrate prior experience delivering major pavilions or large-scale immersive exhibition spaces completed within the past 15 years, alongside international logistics and regional project delivery capabilities.

    UK-based engineering consultancy Buro Happold prepared the plot masterplanning and development guidelines for the zone.

    Another UK-headquartered firm, Trivandi, was selected in April as the operations partner for the US Pavilion at Riyadh Expo.

    Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from October 2030 to March 2031 under the theme Foresight for Tomorrow, with host authorities projecting roughly 42 million visits.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event.

    Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site will be near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20580855/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Oman invites bids for geothermal plant study

    14 October 2026

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP) has issued a tender for techno-economic consultancy services for phases two and three of the sultanate’s first planned geothermal power plant project.

    Known as the Hot Springs Geothermal Project, the tender covers geological, geochemical and deep geophysical investigations, geothermal resource assessment and three-dimensional conceptual modelling.

    It also includes site selection, a preliminary techno-economic assessment and preparation of a temperature-gradient drilling programme.

    The scope includes an optional phase three covering drilling tender support and supervision, post-drilling resource assessment, and detailed feasibility and development studies.

    Bid submissions are due by 30 November.

    The tender supports Oman’s efforts to assess geothermal energy’s potential as an additional source of renewable electricity. The country is seeking to diversify its energy mix as it expands its renewable energy programme under Oman Vision 2040 and works towards its net-zero emissions target for 2050.

    Nama PWP previously tendered the first phase of the project in April 2025, with the initial consultancy scope covering selected locations between Wilayat Fanja and Al-Ansab in Muscat Governorate. 

    Unlike solar and wind power, geothermal energy is seen as a way to provide a consistent source of energy regardless of weather conditions. However, the commercial viability of Oman’s geothermal resources remains to be established.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20578284/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall