meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Kuwait tenders two Al-Mutlaa City construction packages

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has tendered two contracts covering the construction of public buildings across five districts at its Al-Mutlaa City residential project.

    The first tender covers construction in the N5 and N6 districts, while the second covers N1, N3 and N4.

    The tenders were issued on 30 August, with a bid submission deadline of 30 September.

    The project is a housing scheme located 38.3 kilometres northwest of the Kuwait metropolitan area.

    It covers approximately 104 square kilometres and is expected to house up to 400,000 people.

    The mixed-use development will include residential, social, commercial and light industrial areas.

    In March 2023, MEED reported that PAHW had appointed France-based Egis as a project management consultant for the Al-Mutlaa City development.

    Under the agreement, Egis is providing programme-level service management, construction logistics and interface management services.

    The scope of work also includes cost management, a digital programme management system and a project management information system for the scheme.

    Al-Mutlaa City is one of the largest housing infrastructure projects being developed by the government as part of Kuwait’s Vision 2035.

    UK analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to grow at an average annual rate of 7.1% in 2025-28, supported by investment in renewable energy, transport and oil and gas projects, as well as spending under the New Kuwait 2035 National Development Plan.

    Under this strategy, the government plans to invest KD350m ($1.1bn) to develop several sports projects in the country.

    The residential construction sector is expected to register average annual growth of 3.8% in 2025-28, supported by the government’s plan to build 65,500 housing units by 2029 through five projects.

    MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait includes:

    > COMMENT: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire
    > GOVERNMENT: Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development
    > BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
    > OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
    > POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities investment shifts towards water
    > CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife
    > MARKET TALK: Kuwait stands resilient amid regional tensions

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19245517/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Preferred bidders emerge for Zatca residential PPP

    2 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca), through the National Centre for Privatisation and PPP (NCP), has selected preferred bidders to develop residential buildings at various land ports across the kingdom.

    The project covers developments across nine land ports, separated into two packages.

    Local firm Saudi Arabian Trading & Construction Company has been selected as the preferred bidder for the first package, which includes the Al-Batha, Salwa, Al-Raqi, Jadidat Arar, Al-Wadiah and Empty Quarter sites.

    Bahrain-headquartered Lamar Holding is the preferred bidder for the second package, which includes land ports at Al-Hadithah, Halat Ammar and Al-Durrah.

    The project will be implemented as a public-private partnership (PPP) on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis, with a contract duration of 23 years, including the construction period.

    The contract covers the construction and management of new residential buildings and associated facilities at the land ports, as well as the rehabilitation of existing facilities.

    The project is the latest scheme in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline. In January, Saudi Arabia launched a national privatisation strategy aimed at mobilising $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    Building on the privatisation programme first introduced in 2018, the strategy focuses on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    In a statement, NCP said the strategy comprises 147 opportunities drawn from a broader pipeline of more than 500 projects across 18 sectors.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19244076/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt signs PPA for 1GW Ras Shokeir wind farm

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A joint venture of the local Hassan Allam Utilities Energy and Infinity Power has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) for the development of the 1GW Ras Shokeir wind project in Egypt.

    The project is located in Egypt’s Red Sea Governorate, within the Gulf of Suez wind corridor. It will cover approximately 143 square kilometres.

    The PPA has a 25-year term. The project will supply electricity to Egypt’s national grid.

    Ras Shokeir is expected to generate enough electricity to power more than 1.2 million Egyptian homes. It is also expected to avoid more than 1.36 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

    The PPA was signed by EETC chairperson Mona Rizk and Infinity Power co-founder and CEO Nayer Fouad, representing the Infinity Power-Hassan Allam consortium.

    The signing brings the project closer to development as Egypt seeks to expand its renewable energy capacity. Egypt has set a target for renewable energy to make up 42% of the electricity mix by 2030 and 65% by 2040.

    This includes the 500MW Amunet 2 wind project, which is being developed by UAE-headquartered Amea Power following the commissioning of the first Amunet wind project in June 2025.

    Hassan Allam Utilities Energy and Infinity Power are also developing Egypt’s $560m West Minya solar plant, which will combine 1,000MWac of solar photovoltaic capacity with a 600MWh battery energy storage system.

    In June, MEED reported that a joint venture of Hassan Allam Construction and India’s Sterling & Wilson Renewable Energy had won the engineering, procurement and construction contract for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19242701/main1603.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • NWC confirms $347m Saudi sewage treatment plant deal

    2 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) has signed a contract worth more than SR1.3bn ($347m) with a Saudi-Chinese consortium to rehabilitate, operate and maintain nine sewage treatment plants (STPs).

    The 15-year contract covers plants located across the Hail, Qassim, Al-Jouf and Northern Borders provinces. The plants have a combined treatment design capacity of more than 337,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    MEED exclusively reported in January that the consortium comprising China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology and Saudi-based Armada Holding had won the contract for the project.

    The contract is for the Northern Cluster Sewage Treatment Plants Package 10 (LTOM10) and includes an initial three-year period for rehabilitation and upgrade works, followed by long-term operation and maintenance.

    NWC said the contract was signed with a tariff of SR0.69 ($0.18) a cubic meter.

    As MEED understands, United Water will be responsible for design, financing, operation and part of the construction works. Saudi Arabia’s Armada Holding will handle construction, equipment import customs clearance and local business communications. UAE-registered Prosus Holding will act as the financial investor.

    LTOM packages

    The same consortium is also expected to sign a contract for Package 11 of the LTOM programme in the coming months.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that the consortium won the contract for this project, which will have a combined capacity of about 440,000 cm/d.

    Bids for North Western B Cluster (LTOM12) remain under evaluation. The contract covers the construction and upgrade of seven STPs with a combined capacity of about 162,000 cm/d.

    NWC also tendered the Eastern A Cluster (LTOM14) package in April, covering the upgrade of six existing STPs with a capacity expansion of 30,000 cm/d at the Al-Jarodia STP.

    This will increase total treatment capacity from about 263,000 cm/d to approximately 293,000 cm/d, with an estimated cost of $180m.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 September.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19242964/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Iraq looks to accelerate oil pipeline projects

    2 September 2026

    Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has held talks with a delegation from Qatari company UCC on accelerating the progress of two major pipeline projects, according to a statement from Iraq’s Office of Media and Government Communication.

    The first proposed pipeline route extends from Basra, in southern Iraq, to Haditha, located about 200 kilometres northwest of Baghdad, then on to Faysh Khabur, which lies on the border with Syria and near the border with Turkiye.

    The second pipeline extends from Haditha to Syria’s coastal city of Baniyas.

    Discussions covered the contract type, implementation timeline and “other technical matters”, according to the statement released by the Iraqi government.

    During the meeting, Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Basem Mohammed Khudair Al-Abadi, emphasised the need to expedite the tendering process for the project contracts.

    He said all obstacles to progress on the projects needed to be eliminated.

    He also said weekly meetings will be held between relevant parties to reach agreements on the economic models for the pipelines and their routes.

    The Ministry of Oil said UCC is leading a consortium of companies developing the projects.

    It added that the consortium includes US-based Chevron, the investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.

    In July, Iraq’s cabinet approved Basra Oil Company signing a ​heads of agreement and a non-disclosure agreement with the consortium to explore possible future oil pipeline projects.

    Under the terms of the agreement, the consortium will prepare technical and financial feasibility studies for strategic export pipeline projects.

    Also in July, US-based KBR was awarded a consultancy contract for the section of pipeline due to extend from Basra to Haditha.

    In April, Iraq announced the allocation of $1.5bn for the Basra-Haditha route, while the larger scheme is estimated at around $5bn.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19241649/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp