meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia gauges interest for Al-Ula wastewater expansion

    27 October 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Al-Ula (RCU) is conducting market sounding for the first phase of the Mughayra wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) expansion before formally starting its tendering process, according to industry sources.

    The project is valued at SR400m ($107m) and is intended to increase the Mughayra plant’s wastewater treatment capacity to 62,000 cubic metres a day.

    RCU is gauging interest from potential contractors and has not yet issued a prequalification questionnaire, a source said.

    The scheme forms part of Saudi Arabia’s broader investment drive to develop its cultural and tourism offering across Al-Ula.

    The commission launched its Journey Through Time Masterplan in April 2021, with implementation scheduled in three phases through 2035. The masterplan covers infrastructure development, water management and irrigation, alongside the regeneration of a 9-kilometre cultural oasis.

    French engineering firm Artelia previously noted in its 2025 annual corporate report that it is involved in the design phase of the Mughayra WWTP.

    RCU is also developing strategic potable-water storage infrastructure in Al-Ula, including a design-and-build project covering a 50,000-cubic-metre reservoir at Hub 06 and a 15,000-cubic-metre reservoir at Hub 08.

    Local contractor Bin Omairah previously confirmed that it is serving as the engineering, procurement and construction contractor for the storage facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20950333/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qatari firm wins $147m Syria road deal

    27 October 2026

    Qatari contractor Al-Mohannadi for Roads, Trading & Contracting has signed a $147m contract with Syria’s General Directorate of Roads to rehabilitate and expand a 215-kilometre (km) highway corridor connecting to the Iraqi border.

    The project covers the rehabilitation and dualisation of a 170km section linking the Al-Busairi junction to the Al-Tanf border crossing, alongside the construction of a 45km link between the Al-Sabaa Biyar junction and Al-Busairi. Work is scheduled for completion within 900 days.

    The agreement was signed in Damascus by Moaz Najjar, director-general of the General Directorate of Roads, and Abdullah Adnan Al-Zattam, chief executive of Al-Mohannadi, in the presence of Syrian Transport Minister Yarob Badr and Finance Minister Mohammad Yusr Barnieh.

    The upgrade is intended to restore and expand one of Syria’s primary overland arteries to Iraq, which has suffered significant deterioration and capacity bottlenecks following years of conflict. The Al-Tanf corridor represents the most direct overland link between Damascus, central Syrian industrial centres and Baghdad.

    The project is designed to accommodate heavier commercial freight vehicles and reduce transit times between the two countries.

    The investment also forms part of broader efforts to re-establish Syria’s role as a regional transit corridor connecting Mediterranean ports with landlocked trade routes into Iraq and the wider region.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20950332/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Riyadh selects contractor for $534m road works

    27 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has selected Riyadh-based contractor Saudi Pan Kingdom (Sapac) for an estimated SR2bn ($534m) contract to carry out road construction works in the capital.

    The scope of work covers the construction of 6 kilometres (km) of new road infrastructure, including interchanges 9, 10 and 11 on King Salman Road.

    The contract includes road and bridge works; earthworks; stormwater drainage systems; road lighting; intelligent transportation systems; irrigation pumping stations; landscaping; utility diversions; and associated civil, structural, electrical and infrastructure works.

    The award follows RCRC’s selection of local firm Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company for an estimated SR1.13bn ($301m) contract to upgrade a section of Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Road in eastern Riyadh. 

    That project involves constructing an urban road corridor about 3km long with a right-of-way width of about 120 metres. The package includes three interchanges featuring post-tensioned, voided-slab concrete bridges; a cut-and-cover tunnel; and three box culverts designated IC02, IC03 and IC04.

    It also encompasses stormwater drainage, pumping and lifting stations, irrigation networks, mechanically stabilised earth retaining walls, roadway lighting and power distribution systems.

    RCRC’s roads development programme is upgrading Riyadh’s arterial network through new road corridors, interchanges, bridges, tunnels and supporting utility infrastructure.

    The programme is intended to address congestion, improve connections between key areas and expand the capital’s transport capacity ahead of Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup. Recent awards to Sapac and Alomaier form part of this wider investment.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20942374/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia raises electricity tariffs

    26 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company, has announced revised electricity tariffs, which will take effect on 1 January 2027. 

    The revised tariff schedule, published on the company’s official website, covers residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, charitable and government customers.

    The largest percentage increase in consumption rates is 16.7%, for residential customers using up to 6,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) a month. Residential customers will pay 21 halalas/kWh for monthly consumption of up to 6,000kWh, up from 18 halalas. For consumption above 6,000kWh, the rate will rise from 30 to 33 halalas/kWh, a 10% increase.

    The industrial tariff will increase by 15%, from 20 to 23 halalas/kWh. Commercial customers, private healthcare facilities and private educational facilities will pay 25 halalas/kWh, up from 22 halalas, for consumption up to 6,000kWh a month, and 35 halalas/kWh above that level, up from 32 halalas.

    Tariffs for charities and government customers will also increase. In addition to consumption-based charges, customers will pay a fixed monthly fee based on the capacity of their electricity meter. This replaces the previous separate charge for meter reading, maintenance and billing, with VAT applied to the revised tariffs. 

    Electricity investment

    The new tariffs coincide with changes to water consumption tariffs announced by the National Water Company, also effective from 1 January 2027.

    King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud directed support measures following a proposal presented by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud.

    This includes raising the minimum wage required for Saudi nationals to count as full employees towards private sector localisation quotas under the Nitaqat programme. 

    The tariff changes come as Saudi Arabia plans substantial investment in its electricity infrastructure. In September 2025, Saudi Energy announced plans to invest SR220bn ($58.7bn) in power infrastructure projects between 2025 and 2030.

    A June 2025 report by Fitch Ratings forecast negative free cash flow of about SR16bn a year over the period and rising leverage, reflecting the financial demands of the programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20924301/main5024.gif
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dubai Municipality confirms AED3bn Tasreef drainage awards

    26 October 2026

    Dubai Municipality has confirmed it has awarded four contracts worth AED3bn ($817m) to expand the emirate’s stormwater drainage network by about 100 square kilometres under phase three of the Tasreef programme.

    The projects will cover Jumeirah, Umm Suqeim, Al-Quoz, Al-Barsha, Al-Wasl and Al-Marmoom. The works include constructing and extending main stormwater drainage lines with diameters of up to three metres.

    The four packages are part of Dubai’s AED30bn Tasreef programme, which aims to increase the emirate’s stormwater drainage capacity by 700% and reduce costs associated with pumping stations, network operations and maintenance by 20%.

    The contracts have been awarded to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) and three local firms: Arifco Group, Nael Construction & Contracting (NCC) and Detech Contracting. Dubai Municipality did not state which projects the awards relate to.

    According to sources, the contract awards include packages TF-15-C1, TF-15-C2 and TF-13-C1.

    The first package, TF-15-C1, involves the construction of 21 kilometres of main and secondary drainage lines along Al-Wasl Road and in surrounding areas. It will cover Za’abeel 2, Al-Wasl, Jumeirah 1 and 2, Al-Bada’a, Al-Satwa and Dubai World Trade Centre. The estimated $100m contract was awarded to Detech in July, as exclusively reported by MEED.

    The second package, TF-15-C2, covers the corridor between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al-Khail Road. It includes about 14km of main drainage lines serving Al-Quoz Industrial Areas 1, 3 and 4, and Al-Barsha 1. In July, MEED reported that CSCEC had won the engineering, procurement and construction contract for this project.

    The third package, TF-13-C1, covers Al-Marmoom, where 23km of drainage infrastructure will be developed. According to a source, Arifco has been awarded this contract.

    The final package covers Jumeirah and Umm Suqeim, where about 42km of main drainage lines will serve Umm Suqeim 1, 2 and 3; Umm Al-Sheif; Jumeirah 3; Al-Safa 1 and 2; and Al-Manara.

    In May, MEED reported that NCC had been awarded a contract to build a sewage and stormwater drainage system, DS-204. However, it is unconfirmed whether this relates to the same project.

    Earlier, in February, the municipality confirmed it had awarded contracts for five new projects under phase two of the programme to expand and strengthen Dubai’s stormwater drainage network.

    These included two contracts awarded to Detech and one to CSCEC for stormwater drainage infrastructure. In addition, two consultancy contracts were awarded for the study and design of drainage systems in selected areas across the emirate.

    Cumulatively valued at AED2.5bn, the new projects will serve 30 vital areas, spanning approximately 430 million square metres and supporting an estimated population of three million residents by 2040.

    Previously, in April 2025, an earlier package of awards was announced under phase one of the Tasreef programme. The overall masterplan aims to expand Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700% by 2033.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20923924/main4827.jpg
    Mark Dowdall