Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.


About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge
Related Articles
  • Dubai moves to next phase of Al-Quoz sewerage project

    13 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality’s AED500m ($136m) sewerage and stormwater network development project in Al-Quoz Creative Zone is on track for full completion by January 2027, a source has told MEED.

    The timeline follows Dubai Municipality’s announcement that it has completed the first phase at a cost of AED250m ($68m).

    Phase one included the construction of sewerage and stormwater drainage networks covering 155 hectares and 123 plots. Dubai Municipality said it laid 15 kilometres of sewerage pipelines with diameters ranging from 160mm to 1,600mm. It also developed 14 kilometres of stormwater drainage lines with pipe diameters of between 200mm and 3,000mm.

    The overall project covers Al-Quoz Industrial Areas 1, 2, 3 and 4, as well as the area between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al-Khail Road. It spans 1,600 hectares and covers more than 1,507 plots.

    It is understood that the second phase covers the remaining sections of the project beyond the 155-hectare area completed under phase one.

    Local firm DeTech Contracting is the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor on both phases of the scheme.

    The scheme forms part of Dubai’s wider sewerage system development programme and aligns with the AED30bn ($8.1bn) Tasreef programme, which aims to expand stormwater drainage capacity across the emirate.

    The municipality recently opened a tender for a stormwater drainage project covering the Al-Marmoum, Al-Qudra and Al-Yalayis 2 & 3 areas.

    The project is intended to improve stormwater drainage along major roads and surrounding areas within the project zone.

    The works will include the construction of a major gravity drainage system with pipelines of up to 1,600 millimetres in diameter.

    In February, the municipality confirmed it had awarded contracts for five new projects under phase two of the programme to expand and strengthen Dubai’s stormwater drainage network.

    These include two contracts awarded to DeTech Contracting and one to China State Construction Engineering Corporation for stormwater drainage infrastructure.

    In addition, two consultancy contracts were awarded for the study and design of drainage systems in selected areas across the emirate.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369236/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qiddiya signs sports medical centre project deal

    13 April 2026

    Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Centre (KFSHRC) have signed an agreement to establish a sports medical centre within the Qiddiya city project in Riyadh.

    The agreement was signed at KFSHRC’s headquarters in Riyadh by Majid Alfayyadh, CEO of KFSHRC, and Abdullah Al-Dawood, managing director of QIC.

    The facility will provide specialised sports medicine services in line with international standards, the partners said.

    The goal of the agreement is “to create a dedicated centre that supports professional athletes, rising talents and community members, helping to advance sports healthcare in Saudi Arabia”, they said in a statement.

    Under the agreement, KFSHRC will provide technical and operational support, supervise the centre’s operations, and ensure high-quality, integrated services that combine clinical care with research and innovation.

    The Qiddiya Sports Medical Centre will offer services including injury prevention, diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation and performance improvement.

    The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

    The kingdom’s tourism sector posted record-breaking numbers last year, with over 130 million domestic and international visitors entering the kingdom, representing a 6% increase over 2024.


    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia

    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369037/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia restores capacity of affected oil and gas assets

    13 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has announced the restoration of full capacity at critical oil and gas infrastructure damaged in attacks by Iran on 9 April.

    The attacks led to the loss of approximately 700,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude pumping capacity on the East-West oil pipeline, which has been restored to its optimum capacity of 7 million b/d, the ministry said on 12 April.

    The Manifa oil field development in the kingdom’s Eastern Province, which lost 300,000 b/d of production due to the attacks, has also had its output capacity reinstated “within a short period of time”, the ministry said.

    The ministry added that work is still ongoing to restore full production capacity at the Khurais oil field, which also lost 300,000 b/d of capacity in the attacks.

    “This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets, and supporting the global economy,” the Ministry of Energy said.

    Along with the East-West pipeline and the Manifa and Khurais oil field developments, the attacks on 9 April also targeted oil refineries, petrochemical complexes and electricity units in Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.

    These assets include the Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp) facility in Jubail, Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, the Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company (Samref) complex in Yanbu, and the Riyadh refinery, directly affecting exports of refined products to global markets.

    Processing facilities in Juaymah in the Eastern Province were also affected by fires, impacting exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids.

    The ministry’s 12 April statement did not provide updates on the status of those facilities.

    Prior to the 9 April attacks, Saudi authorities reported explosions in Jubail industrial city on 7 April. Saudi air defence systems intercepted seven ballistic missiles targeting the Eastern Province that day, with debris landing near energy facilities, primarily in Jubail.

    Jubail is one of the world’s largest petrochemical production hubs, with annual output of about 60 million tonnes, accounting for an estimated 6%-8% of global supply. A large part of majority state-owned Saudi Basic Industries Corporation’s (Sabic) operations is based in Jubail.

    Jubail also hosts major downstream oil, gas and petrochemical assets operated by Aramco, US-based Dow and France’s TotalEnergies, underscoring the industrial zone’s international significance.


    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368648/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia seeks firms for Riyadh mixed-use project

    13 April 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority (SPGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has invited expressions of interest from firms to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organisation (SASO) headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The notice was issued on 12 April, with a bid submission deadline of 26 April.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) scheme, named the ‘Quality Valley Riyadh’ project, will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities.

    The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period.

    The project site spans about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are the project advisers.

    In October last year, NCP highlighted the scale and diversity of opportunities in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline.

    “At the moment, we have around 200 projects in the pipeline with a total value of roughly $190bn,” Salman Badr, executive vice president – infrastructure advisory, NCP, said during a MEED webinar.

    The projects are spread across 17 sectors. “We have a very sizeable programme, and it reflects the breadth of the kingdom’s transformation agenda,” he said.

    NCP was established in 2017. It serves as the central authority and catalyst for designing and implementing privatisation and PPP projects across the kingdom.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368638/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

    13 April 2026

     

    The US and Israel’s conflict with Iran is undermining the business case for Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects by driving up prices, destroying demand for the super-chilled fuel, damaging infrastructure and eroding confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers.

    By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has removed around 20% of global LNG supply from the market and, for some importers, has effectively doubled prices.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict.

    The current wave of high prices has exacerbated concerns about LNG price volatility and has already changed the minds of some countries and businesses that were planning to make large investments to facilitate LNG imports.

    If these projects do not go ahead as planned, it could limit future global LNG demand, dimming the long-term outlook for businesses that depend on LNG export revenues.

    As well as facing longer-term demand likely to fall short of previous expectations, LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar are also being hit in the short term as infrastructure has been damaged by Iranian strikes and sales are being blocked by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The lost revenues and ongoing security issues are casting a shadow over major LNG export expansion plans in the GCC, collectively worth more than $35bn, which could now face significant delays.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict

    Affordability issues

    LNG production stopped in Qatar on 2 March 2026 and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, removing around 80 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG supply from global markets.

    The North Field East expansion project, currently under construction and expected to add 32 million t/y, was anticipated to start up in November 2026, but could now face considerable delays.

    The project is estimated to be worth $28.8bn, making it the biggest LNG project ever sanctioned

    In a statement released last month, Daniel Toleman, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz lasting five to six months would push annual global LNG supply into a year-on-year decline.

    “Even if supply were maintained at 2025 levels, the market would still face demand destruction in Asia, lower storage injections in Europe, and sustained upward pressure on gas and LNG prices,” he added.

    “Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.”

    Beyond the closure of the strait, Qatar’s LNG business has also been dealt a significant setback by Iranian attacks on infrastructure.

    Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and minister of state for energy affairs, said the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.

    Repairs to damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.

    UAE setbacks

    The UAE has also seen significant disruption to its LNG operations, with shipments from its only LNG export terminal, located on Das Island, severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Although it has not formally declared force majeure, virtually all of its LNG output has been removed from global markets because it has no pipeline or alternative routes for LNG exports.

    The ongoing energy crisis has increased uncertainty about the UAE’s planned $5.5bn LNG export terminal, being developed at the Ruwais industrial complex.

    In recent weeks, the Ruwais industrial complex was targeted by Iran, causing a fire at the site. The location could also face similar shipping problems to the Das Island facility in the future, as it too requires LNG exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oman exports

    With its LNG export terminals located on the country’s northeast coast, Oman’s exports do not require the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and it has escaped most of the negative impacts that have hit the UAE and Qatar.

    However, Oman’s state-owned integrated energy company, OQ, has still been affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to its activities as an LNG trader.

    Last month, OQ Trading, the company’s international trading and marketing arm, declared force majeure on LNG shipments to Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla.

    Replacing LNG

    Analysts say the demand destruction now taking place in LNG-importing nations is likely to have a long-term impact on future LNG demand.

    Countries where planned LNG import-related projects have been cancelled or are being reconsidered include Vietnam, China and New Zealand.

    Christopher Doleman, a gas specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa), believes that long-term demand for LNG will be eroded by the current crisis.

    “Prior to the war, a lot of countries were already somewhat hesitant to develop new LNG import infrastructure,” he said.

    “There were existing concerns about the high price of LNG and potential volatility, and these concerns have increased significantly since the war began, leading several developers to consider other options, which in some cases include renewables projects.

    “Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years.”

    On 30 March, China’s state-owned energy company Sinopec said it was terminating a planned LNG import terminal project worth 5.6bn yuan ($820m) and reallocating the money to developing domestic gas resources.

    The company said developing domestic resources was more cost-effective than developing LNG import infrastructure.

    In Vietnam, conglomerate Vingroup has asked the government to allow it to replace a planned $6bn LNG power project – previously set to be the country’s largest – with a renewable energy project, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

    US-based GE Vernova, which had been selected to supply gas turbines and generators for the 4.8GW project, was informed of Vingroup’s revised plans in a document sent on 25 March.

    Instead of the LNG-powered plant, Vingroup asked Vietnam’s industry ministry to consider an investment plan for a hybrid renewable energy project combined with a battery energy storage system (bess).

    A bess stores electricity from renewable sources to maximise its use by discharging power during peak demand.

    The document did not specify the type of renewable energy to be used, but estimated the cost of the bess project at around $25bn, saying it would be a viable alternative to the LNG-powered plant if equipped with appropriate transmission infrastructure.

    If Vietnam follows through on its pivot away from LNG towards renewables, it could directly affect future export deals for Qatar, which is currently one of the country’s LNG suppliers.

    Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years
    Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

    Second thoughts

    In New Zealand, plans announced last year for a new LNG terminal on the country’s North Island are becoming increasingly uncertain.

    In February, the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki. But on 30 March, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the government would only approve the project if the business case made sense.

    “If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. Until we see the commercials on it, we’ll make the decision then,” he said.

    Mike Roan, chief executive of New Zealand’s Meridian Energy, said US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on 28 February had made the project much less likely to go ahead.

    “It feels like the Americans might have put a bazooka, literally, through that proposal,” he said.

    It has been reported that ministers are considering replacing the project with a major hydroelectric power station, which was referred to the country’s fast-track consent panel in the last week of March.

    The future of a planned $3bn project to develop an LNG import terminal and gas power plant in South Africa is also now in doubt after executives delayed the final investment decision (FID).

    Speaking at a conference on 4 March, Oliver Naidu from Netherlands-based Royal Vopak said the company now plans to decide on the $3bn terminal in the first quarter of 2028.

    The power station and regasification complex, slated for development in the Durban area, would have had the capacity to produce 1.0-1.8GW of electricity.

    Nuclear and coal

    In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) restarted unit 2 at its Kori nuclear power plant this month.

    The facility had been offline for three years since its original 40-year operating permit expired in April 2023.

    Commenting on the restart, KHNP president Kim Hoe-Cheon said: “In a situation where energy supply instability persists, the continued operation of nuclear power plants based on safety is an important means of securing national energy security.”

    Across Asia, there has also been a surge in the use of both solar and coal amid high LNG prices.

    In Pakistan, the country’s Power Minister, Awais Leghari, said that the country would pivot away from LNG to focus on domestically produced coal.

    “With a reduction in LNG generation, plants running on locally mined coal will be able to produce more during off-peak hours,” Leghari told Reuters.

    Similar coal ramp-ups are also taking place in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

    Coleman believes increased use of both coal and renewables could mean LNG’s role in the global energy mix falls short of previous expectations over the coming years.

    “It’s possible that we will see a dual surge – where both renewables and coal use are ramped up,” he said.

    “This is an interesting prospect because it will effectively remove gas as a so-called ‘bridge-fuel’ and we may see the transition progressing more directly to the use of renewables and battery storage, with less of a role for gas than was previously expected.

    “Really, it’s turned out that LNG was just a bridge to volatility and insecurity compared to something like solar, which is very reliable and predictable.”

    Eroded outlook

    The demand destruction in LNG-importing countries driven by the current energy crisis is likely to mean that the long-term market for LNG exports could be significantly smaller than previously thought, negatively impacting LNG producers worldwide.

    Qatar and the UAE are likely to be hit harder than producers in other regions for several reasons.

    Attacks on infrastructure and disruptions to shipping are preventing them from capitalising on the current period of high prices, while producers in other regions are recording windfall profits.

    In addition, dealing with the logistical and financial consequences of the conflict is likely to divert resources away from progressing new projects, pursuing efficiencies and securing future customers.

    Another factor likely to weigh on LNG operators in Qatar and the UAE is the persistence of customer concerns about the reliability of shipping LNG via the Strait of Hormuz.

    This could compel Adnoc Gas and QatarEnergy to sell at a relative discount compared with sellers in other regions, or to increase contractual flexibility.

    It could even push these producers to rethink future projects to diversify export routes. For Qatar, this could take the form of a gas pipeline via neighbouring countries. For the UAE, one option could be developing an LNG terminal on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing reliance on the bottleneck controlled by Iran.

    While the current conflict is a major setback for LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and security risks diminish, it is likely that exports will ramp up relatively quickly and former clients will return.

    However, questions remain about when this will happen. If safe passage for LNG tankers can be secured within days or weeks, the long-term impact is likely to be limited.

    If disruption continues for longer, it could transform the outlook for the Middle East’s LNG sector for years to come.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16331010/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp