Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index
31 January 2023

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.
The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.
High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.
Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.
Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.
There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector
Project potential
Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years.
The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market.
There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.
Mixed performances
The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards.
The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.
Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off.
Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.
Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.
The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge.
Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.
Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.
Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.
Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.
Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses
Facing challenges
Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-
digit fiscal deficit.
Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.
Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.
Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.
About the indexMEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets. |
Exclusive from Meed
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GCC projects market holds its nerve1 November 2026
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Ashghal tenders Mekeines-Umm Bab link road30 October 2026
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Contractors submit Riyadh Expo KSA pavilion bids30 October 2026
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Oman announces $790m industrial investment deals30 October 2026
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GCC projects market holds its nerve1 November 2026

The war in the Gulf is now inflicting deep damage on the region’s economies. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts contraction in every GCC state except Oman in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to shrink by 3.3%, after 4.6% growth in 2025, and the UAE’s by 3.9%, after 6.2% growth.
The IMF expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Qatar’s by 15.6% and Bahrain’s by 11.3%, as energy and transport disruption cuts exports. Oman, with routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, is forecast to grow by 4.1%.The fund has cut its 2026 forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by 2.2 percentage points since April, to a contraction of 0.3%, citing a longer closure of the strait than it had previously assumed. The revision for Saudi Arabia is 6.4 percentage points. The IMF now assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027, with a return to prewar conditions broadly by October 2027.
There is little sign of an early end to hostilities. On 10 October, a Houthi-attributed strike on a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Airport operations were suspended and several international airlines cancelled flights.
Yet the region’s projects market is holding up far better than its economies. Data from MEED Projects shows that contract awards in 2026 have proved resilient, with clients across the GCC continuing to commit capital to new schemes.
The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies
Resilient awards
The UAE leads the regional market for a second consecutive year, with the value of contract awards 6.1% higher than in the same period of 2025. Oman and Kuwait are also running ahead of last year’s pace, despite the IMF’s forecast that Kuwait’s economy will contract by about a sixth.
Saudi Arabia has awarded $68.8bn of contracts so far this year, 13% less than in the same period of 2025. Given that the kingdom has been the main target of the Houthi campaign, and was already revising its spending priorities before the conflict, the decline is modest.
The comparison is against a high base. The past three years have seen unprecedented GCC capital expenditure, supported by higher oil prices, residential demand and national vision programmes. More than three quarters has been concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The gap between economic output and project spending reflects the nature of the projects market. Governments and state-linked entities can sustain capital budgets through a downturn using reserves and borrowing. GDP contraction, by contrast, reflects lost oil and gas exports, tourism and trade.
The UAE’s performance this year has been driven by the gas and transport sectors, which have recorded the strongest growth. Construction, the country’s largest sector, has declined as the real estate market has cooled.
Abu Dhabi has been the standout performer. Contract awards in the capital are up 35% on the same period of last year, with growth across the construction, gas, oil and transport sectors.
Public spending is a central reason for that resilience. Fitch Ratings expects Abu Dhabi’s spending to rise by 19% this year, equivalent to 3.7% of GDP, to support the non-oil economy. Data from the Central Bank of the UAE shows consolidated government capital expenditure rose to AED18.6bn ($5.1bn) in Q1 2026 from
AED2bn in Q1 2025.Fitch expects UAE infrastructure and government-related entity capital spending to rise significantly in 2026 and 2027, both to strengthen resilience against future conflicts and stimulate the economy. Emirates have already accelerated tendering on several projects.
Transport remains a priority. Plans include further sections of the national passenger rail network, a high-speed rail link between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, a light rail system in Abu Dhabi and the Dubai Metro Gold Line. The $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport in Dubai is moving towards delivery with the award of the first major construction packages.
Economic headwinds
Both the IMF and Fitch expect a strong rebound once the strait reopens. The IMF forecasts 2027 growth of 7.7% in the UAE, 7.9% in Saudi Arabia, 18.8% in Qatar and 17.1% in Kuwait. Fitch forecasts UAE non-oil growth of 6.1% next year. Paul Gamble, senior director at Fitch, cautioned that prolonged insecurity “will call into question logistical advantages” that underpin the UAE’s growth model.
Beneath the headline award totals, there are warning signs. Regional contract awards performed well between March and June, but the value of work awarded in recent months has dropped sharply compared with the same months of 2025. According to MEED Projects, the main cause is a fall in the number of tenders being issued, particularly in real estate.
The timing is significant. The strong period included the April ceasefire, when clients appear to have pressed ahead expecting a short conflict. Tendering slowed as hostilities resumed. In July, Iranian attacks reached Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, while Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia began.
The pattern suggests conflict fatigue may be setting in, with clients deferring projects amid a war with no clear end date. As tendering is a leading indicator, the impact on awards is likely to become more visible in coming months.
In Saudi Arabia, monthly performance has been mixed as the market adjusts to revised spending priorities and the regional conflict. Most sectors are up on last year, with the exception of power and water, which has struggled in 2026, possibly as a result of overbuilding in the past three years. The kingdom’s gigaprojects have continued their retreat. Awards peaked at $31.7bn in 2023 and fell to $14.4bn in 2025. The total so far in 2026 is $9.4bn, most of it for work at Qiddiya, Diriyah and Rua Al-Madinah.
The GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years
Dubai slowdown
The clearest signal of the conflict’s impact on the projects market comes from Dubai. The emirate’s market performed strongly until May. Since then, activity has been subdued, and contract awards for the year to date are 0.6% lower than in the same period of 2025.
The main cause is a decline in residential contract awards. Data from Bayut and the Dubai Land Department shows a marked fall in the value of off-plan sales since late February, when the war began. Residential construction awards have fallen in step, with no sign of the time lag that would normally be expected.
Third-quarter figures from Savills confirm the trend. Residential transactions fell 38% year on year to 34,500, and transaction value dropped 46% to AED70.8bn ($19.3bn) from AED132.2bn. The decline was concentrated in the off-plan segment, where value fell to AED45.7bn in Q3 from AED61.3bn in Q2, while ready-market value rose to AED25.1bn from AED21.3bn.
Developers have sharply reduced new launches. Savills recorded about 5,000 units launched in Q3, taking the total for the year to date to about 50,000, roughly 64% below the same period of 2025. Fewer launches mean fewer construction contracts, which explains why residential awards have fallen so quickly. More than 525,000 units are scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030, which Fitch says could add pressure to a sector accounting for 8% of non-oil GDP if population growth weakens.
Escaping Hormuz
The conflict is also generating new project demand. Saudi Arabia is prioritising ports and transport infrastructure on the Red Sea coast, along with new pipelines to the Red Sea and to Oman. The UAE is developing ports and transport links to the east coast and Oman, and additional pipelines to Fujairah. Fitch anticipates new and expanded road, rail, pipeline and port infrastructure in Oman and Saudi Arabia as GCC states seek routes that bypass the strait.
The IMF’s forecasts underline the value of those routes. It describes Saudi Arabia as “somewhat less affected” than its neighbours because of its more diversified export routes, while Oman is the only GCC state forecast to grow this year. Houthi strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu in September show that Red Sea infrastructure is not beyond reach, however. Defence spending is rising in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and repair and rehabilitation work will add to the pipeline once hostilities end.
The long-term fundamentals remain strong: the GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years, about half of it in Saudi Arabia. Many of the kingdom’s priorities are tied to fixed dates, with Riyadh hosting the World Expo in 2030 and Saudi Arabia hosting the Fifa World Cup in 2034.
The capacity to fund this pipeline depends on oil revenues. MEED’s assessment is that crude prices must remain above $70-$80 a barrel for spending levels to be maintained. With exports through Hormuz disrupted, the volume of oil Gulf producers can move to market matters as much as the price.
The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies. The question for the final quarter is whether the slowdown in tendering is a temporary pause or the start of a sustained retreat. If the IMF’s assumption of a March 2027 reopening of the strait holds, clients will be setting their 2027 budgets with a rebound in sight. If it slips, the resilience of contract awards will face a sterner test.
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Ashghal tenders Mekeines-Umm Bab link road30 October 2026

Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has tendered a contract for the design and construction of the Mekeines to Umm Bab Link Road and associated infrastructure.
The tender was issued on 29 October, with a bid submission deadline of 22 December.
The scope comprises:
- Highway works, including main carriageways, access roads, grade-separated ramps, junctions and tie-ins to existing networks
- Dedicated non-motorised user facilities, footpaths and shared-use cycle paths
- Structural installations, including camel underpasses, a QatarEnergy culvert and gateway monumentation
- Extensive dry and wet utilities, encompassing Kahramaa potable water and electrical transmission networks, surface water drainage, street lighting and dedicated communication networks for Ooredoo, the Qatar National Broadband Network and the Qatar Armed Forces
Under the scope of work, the appointed contractor will execute full design verification and turnkey construction under Ashghal’s standard Building and Engineering Design and Build General Conditions of Contract (2018 Edition) on a lump-sum basis. Engineering subconsultants must hold Grade 1 or International classification with the Ministry of Municipality across civil, architectural, mechanical and electrical engineering disciplines.
The contract stipulates an execution period of 1,260 calendar days (3.5 years) from the commencement date, followed by a 400-day maintenance liability period.
The project is open to local and international contractors classified as Grade A in roads specialisation by Qatar’s Ministry of Finance (MoF).
Foreign firms may participate independently or within a joint venture, provided the joint venture leader holds the requisite classification, by registering through the MoF e-procurement portal with attested equivalent certification from their home countries.
The planned corridor is located within Al-Rayyan Municipality across Zones 82 to 84 in the Al-Sheehaniya area.
At its eastern end, the link road begins about 40 kilometres southwest of central Doha, tying into the Salwa Road Interchange 42. At the western terminus, it connects to the roundabout adjacent to Umm Bab on the Abu Samra to Dukhan road (Route 39).
The link road serves as a critical logistics corridor connecting western settlements, residential districts and industrial installations, including concession areas operated by QatarEnergy.
The western 7.5km of the alignment passes directly through the QatarEnergy District, where the corridor runs parallel to active oil and gas pipelines and includes a designated gateway monument.
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Contractors prepare bids for Petro Rabigh bottom-of-the-barrel project30 October 2026

Contractors are preparing proposals for Saudi Arabia’s Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Company (Petro Rabigh) for a major project to increase output and improve the efficiency of its integrated refining and petrochemicals complex in Rabigh, on the kingdom’s Red Sea coast.
Petro Rabigh’s downstream complex, which is majority-owned by Saudi Aramco, includes a topping refinery with a 340,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) crude-distillation unit, a 47,000 b/d hydrotreater, a 12 million-cubic-feet-a-day hydrogen plant, a 75,000 b/d naphtha Merox unit and a 60,000 b/d kerosene Merox unit. The complex also includes supporting utilities, product tankage and a marine terminal.
The main objective of the bottom-of-the-barrel project is to convert low-value, high-sulphur fuel oil and heavy-residue streams – which account for about 20% to 22% of refinery output – into higher-value, cleaner products, including diesel and lighter distillates.
Petro Rabigh aims to achieve residue-conversion capacity of about 64,000 to 75,000 b/d by adding integrated fuel-oil upgrading and diesel-treatment units.
The company issued the main tender for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works earlier this year. Contractors have until 19 November to submit proposals, sources told MEED.
The following companies are understood to be among those bidding for the project:
- CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
- JGC Corporation (Japan)
- Larsen & Toubro (India) / Technip Energies (France)
- Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
The overall scope of work on the project covers the construction of the following units:
- A light-naphtha isomerisation unit
- A deasphalting and dewaxing unit
- An ebullated-bed processing unit
- A sulphur block, comprising sulphur-recovery, acid-gas-removal, sour-water-stripping and sulphur-forming units
- Sales-gas allocation facilities and associated pipeline works
- Utilities outside battery limits
- Auxiliary piping modifications
- Utility and hydrocarbon tie-ins
Petro Rabigh appointed Australia-headquartered Worley last year to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed) work for the bottom-of-the-barrel project.
MEED also reported that Petro Rabigh appointed Worley to provide engineering and project-management consultancy (PMC) services for the project in the first quarter of this year.
Under the contract, Worley will carry out engineering studies and PMC functions. It will also support the development of cost estimates, project-specific execution procedures and technical procedures in line with Saudi Aramco guidelines. The work covers both the design-basis scoping-paper stage and the subsequent feed stage.
Petro Rabigh will draw on Worley’s expertise in design, procurement and processing technologies, including light-naphtha isomerisation; vacuum-residue processing through deasphalting and dewaxing; an ebullated-bed configuration integrated with the diesel-hydrotreating section; and unconverted-oil hydrotreatment.
Worley recently confirmed its contract award from Petro Rabigh, saying it will deliver engineering, project management, procurement support and related consultancy services for projects across its client’s portfolio.
The scope includes developing design-basis documents, conducting technical evaluations, preparing cost estimates, supporting feed tender packages and providing detailed engineering and execution-phase support as projects advance through development and delivery.
The services will support the evaluation and development of potential new facilities and infrastructure across the complex, including process units, utilities, sulphur recovery facilities and associated infrastructure.
“The work will help Petro Rabigh advance future projects aimed at enhancing the long-term value and performance of its refining and petrochemicals operations,” Worley said in a statement on 28 October.
Separately, Petro Rabigh awarded US-based KBR a 10-year maintenance contract in February to support its polymer plants in Rabigh.
KBR’s Technology Led Industrial Solutions business line will execute the operations and maintenance contract, sources told MEED. The business operates within the Houston-headquartered company’s Technology Solutions portfolio.
In March 2024, Petro Rabigh also awarded KBR a similar five-year asset-condition-monitoring contract. Under that programme, KBR is providing predictive-maintenance services at Petro Rabigh’s main plant.
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Contractors submit Riyadh Expo KSA pavilion bids30 October 2026

Contractors submitted bids on 25 October for a contract to design and build the Saudi Arabia pavilion at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.
The facility will include exhibition halls, VIP and protocol areas, event and performance spaces, meeting rooms, food and retail outlets, and back-of-house facilities.
The pavilion will host exhibitions, cultural and commercial showcases and official events throughout the six-month expo.
External public realm works are also included.
Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, issued the main tender on 19 May, as MEED exclusively reported.
Earlier this week, ERC appointed UK-based Mace as procurement advisory consultant for Expo 2030 Riyadh, supporting procurement activities across the programme.
Under the appointment, Mace will provide procurement services and advise on the management and delivery of procurement activities, with the aim of supporting the expo’s wider programme objectives.
Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from October 2030 to March 2031 with the theme Foresight for Tomorrow, with host authorities projecting approximately 42 million visits.
The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event.
Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site is located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.
The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.
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Oman announces $790m industrial investment deals30 October 2026
Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones has signed 28 investment agreements worth more than RO304m ($790m) for new projects and expansions across the country’s special economic zones, free zones and industrial cities.
The agreements cover more than 2 million square metres (sq m) of land and span industrial manufacturing, food production, logistics, recycling and commercial activities.
About $383.6m of the investment has been allocated to industrial cities operated by the Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn). Sohar Free Zone accounted for $152m, followed by the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad) with $143.1m, Salalah Free Zone with $85.6m and Khazaen Economic City with more than $27m.
The projects are expected to support Oman’s efforts to diversify its economy, expand industrial production and attract private investment in line with Oman Vision 2040.
Investment deals
In Sohar Industrial City, Atlas Steel will invest more than $291.1m in a plant producing iron and steel products on a site of about 440,000 sq m.
Fujian Mancheng Industries & Investment will invest $52m in a ceramics facility covering more than 241,000 sq m. Other investments in Madayn’s industrial cities include an $18.2m phosphate and nitrogen fertiliser plant planned by Gulf Company for Organic and Biological Fertilisers in Raysut, as well as projects involving structural metal products, paper and corrugated cardboard, and oil and gas equipment and services in Raysut, Ibri and Nizwa.
In Sohar Free Zone, Sohar Automotive & Advanced Industries Company will invest $98.8m in an automobile assembly complex covering 317,000 sq m. The complex aims to attract vehicle manufacturers, automotive supply-chain companies and advanced-manufacturing businesses.
Voltamp High Voltage Transformers has announced a $39m investment in a plant that will produce power and electrical-distribution transformers for regional and international markets.
Lalan Middle East will invest a further $3.9m to expand its medical-device manufacturing facility.
ALSO READ: Oman’s Madayn prepares $637m investment drive
In Sezad, Al-Jazir Feed Plant will invest $104m in a shrimp-feed facility to support an integrated shrimp-farming project.
In Salalah Free Zone, Al-Nawras Industries will invest $50m in a steel-structures manufacturing facility, while Integrated Gypsum Company will invest $20m in gypsum-products production. Marai Dhofar will invest $15.6m in the production of Italian cheeses and other dairy products.
Projects in Khazaen Economic City include a plant by Aleemit International Services to manufacture electric-vehicle chargers and components, with an investment of more than $8.8m, and a $6.5m facility by Joger Modular Building Technologies to produce precast-concrete building components.
Additional investments in Khazaen include construction materials, ready-mix concrete, industrial units, logistics facilities and warehouses.
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