Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index
31 January 2023

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.
The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.
High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.
Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.
Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.
There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector
Project potential
Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years.
The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market.
There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.
Mixed performances
The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards.
The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.
Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off.
Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.
Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.
The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge.
Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.
Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.
Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.
Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.
Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses
Facing challenges
Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-
digit fiscal deficit.
Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.
Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.
Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.
About the indexMEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets. |
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Paris-headquartered hotel operator Accor expects Dubai’s hotel market to return to pre-conflict occupancy levels by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with room rates lagging the volume recovery by several months.
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He said the arrival of the summer low season provided a degree of relief. “If there is a time to slowly slide out of this crisis, it is the right time, which is now. What I see going forward is that volumes will come back. You will not have the rates immediately that you had in January and February. By the end of Q1 or Q2 next year, I think you will get close to where we were.”
Luxury first
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Jean-Jacques Morin, group deputy chief executive at Accor (pictured right), said the UAE’s underperformance had been contained within Accor’s broader international portfolio that continued to grow.“The Middle East is about 10% of the network,” he said. “That also explains why my tone on the capability of the results is so positive – not only do you have the hedging across geographies, but it is also, in the end, only one part of the business.”
Rate outlook
Morin dismissed concerns that the conflict had structurally weakened Dubai’s pricing power, drawing a parallel with the period following Covid-19.
“When we came out of Covid, everybody said those prices would never hold. The question at every analyst call was always the same: your pricing strategy is unsustainable. Guess what? Nothing changed. The prices now, three or four years later, are still the same.”
He argued that consumers consistently prioritise travel expenditure when reallocating budgets. “What you see when the economy goes sideways is that people reallocate disposable income differently. People are basically redirecting the way they do things and keeping the same amount they want to spend, but spending it differently.”
Morin also said Dubai has a track record of outpacing expectations after previous disruptions. “The first part of the world, post-Covid, that came back to positive RevPAR was the Middle East – it was Dubai. People forget that. The capacity of this part of the world to rebound, and the capacity of the industry to rebound in general, is always misunderstood.”
No pullback
Accor said it had not paused or cancelled any development commitments in the region as a result of the conflict. “We did not change anything from a strategic perspective,” Morin said. “The last thing you want is to pull back, because this is going to rebound.”
The group has also used the period to accelerate planned refurbishments and redeploy staff across the region rather than reduce headcount.
“We have 380 hotels here – we are the largest player in the Middle East. Where we accelerated refurbishments, we were able to take key employees and move them to larger hotels elsewhere in the region. What people learned during Covid was the cost of layoffs afterwards – bringing people back and retraining them. There was a massive learning curve. This time, discussions with partners about layoffs were less challenging; it was more about accommodating staffing needs during that period,” O’Rourke said.
READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFStress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions> INDUSTRY REPORT: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery> DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise> LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital changeTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17695301/main.gif -
GCC downstream operators urged to seek used European equipment17 July 2026

The operators of downstream oil and gas facilities in the GCC that are rebuilding after attacks during the regional war are being advised by the insurance industry to procure used equipment from Europe, where a large number of petrochemical facilities have closed down over recent years.
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The attacks started after the US and Israel launched attacks on sites in Iran on 28 February.
Nick Holland, the head of engineering for India, the Middle East and Africa at the US-based insurance broker Marsh, says that many downstream facilities carrying out repairs in the GCC could cut costs and reduce the time it takes to rebuild by making deals with companies in Europe.
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Earlier this month, Jim Ratcliffe, the chairman of the London-headquartered chemicals company Ineos, wrote an open letter to Ursula Von Der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, saying that the chemical industry in Europe is “highly stressed” and in the midst of a “closure phase”.
He said that nearly 200 European chemical plants had closed down during the past five years.
Holland says that companies in the GCC looking to minimise business disruption and rebuild as quickly as possible should reach out to companies in Europe to obtain equipment that would normally take a long time to procure from equipment manufacturers.
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Medina tenders Quba Mosque expansion17 July 2026

Madinah Region Development Authority (MRDA) has tendered a contract to expand Quba Mosque in the Medina region of Saudi Arabia.
The tender was issued earlier this month, with a bid submission deadline of 31 August.
MRDA has appointed local consulting firm Jasara as the project management consultant.
Jasara, in turn, has appointed London-based firm HKA to provide specialist procurement and delivery-model advice and to support the selection of a suitable contracting partner for the project.
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Quba Mosque is located about five kilometres south of the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina.
Project background
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Bahrain taps consultants for studying use of nuclear power17 July 2026

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Bahrain is exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption as well as for potential export of surplus, with state energy conglomerate Bapco Energies tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant.
According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.
Under the plan being studied, power to be produced by the nuclear facility will be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the kingdom, such as Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Bapco Refining, for clean production of aluminium and refined products, respectively, in line with Bahrain’s ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
BeVentures has, in turn, approached global consultancy firms such as Bechtel, Fluor, Kent, Technip Energies and Wood to assist with concept study and early-stage planning and assessment of the modular or small nuclear power project.
Bapco Energies and BeVentures are also considering tapping into private financing and/or equity partnerships, in part or in full, for the proposed project, sources told MEED.
Bapco Energies did not respond to MEED’s request for comment and additional information on the proposed modular nuclear project.
Mark Thomas, the group CEO of Bapco Energies, told MEED in an interview in April last year that BeVentures was considering investments in “ … new technologies that can both help existing business, as well as prepare … for the future, for the energy transition”.
“We’re looking at opportunities principally within our existing businesses around oil and gas production, refining and petrochemicals. But we’re also looking at elements that will prepare us for the future, more into renewables,” Thomas said, without explicitly mentioning nuclear power.
Case for nuclear power
Bahrain’s interest in exploring nuclear power has been driven primarily by the limitations of its hydrocarbon endowment. Given its small territorial size – about 786 square kilometres – Bahrain holds relatively modest hydrocarbon reserves compared with its Gulf peers.
The kingdom produces about 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, of which the Awali Field, also known as the Bahrain Field, contributes approximately 42,400 b/d.
Most of Bahrain’s crude production – about 145,000 b/d – comes from the offshore Abu Safah field, located in Gulf waters between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and shared between Bapco Energies’ subsidiary Bapco Upstream and Saudi Aramco.
Bapco Energies has long pursued additional resources to boost oil and gas output. However, the discovery of the Khalij Al-Bahrain basin in 2018 – its biggest find in decades – has yet to live up to its promise. Initially estimated to hold 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the find has not translated into production at the anticipated scale. Other, smaller exploration efforts with foreign players have also yet to yield the desired results.
The kingdom therefore remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas supplies, importing about 350,000 b/d from Aramco via the AB-4 pipeline.
At the same time, given its environmental sustainability targets, other forms of renewable energy – mainly solar – are unlikely on their own to enable Bahrain to reach net zero by 2060.
Bapco Energies published emissions-reduction targets in July 2023, in one of the most detailed disclosures by any state energy enterprise in the GCC. It has also engaged advisers including Boston Consulting Group to help devise a strategy to meet its environmental goals, and Standard Chartered to support financing requirements.
Using 2017 as a baseline year, Bapco Energies has committed to reducing absolute Scope 3 emissions in Bahrain by 30% by 2035, and to reaching net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2060.
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Bahrain has been laying the groundwork to enable it to tap nuclear power for household and industrial needs in the future.
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In July last year, Manama also signed a civilian nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding with the US. Financed under the US Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) programme, the partnership provides Bahrain with technical support to develop secure, weaponisation-free civil nuclear infrastructure.
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Qatar seeks to establish new industrial area in Mesaieed16 July 2026
Qatar’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry and state enterprise QatarEnergy have signed an agreement to cooperate on evaluating and allocating hydrocarbon-derived resources to support the establishment of a new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.
Under the terms of reference signed between the parties, QatarEnergy will implement a governance mechanism for the allocation of hydrocarbon-derived feedstock to qualifying industrial investment opportunities for the proposed new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.
“The agreed terms of reference stipulate the evaluation and allocation of hydrocarbon-derived resources, natural gas, power and related natural resources to downstream derivative industrial investment opportunities,” QatarEnergy said in a statement.
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