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Read the May 2025 MEED Business Review

30 April 2025

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Global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record following US President Donald Trump's announcement of his 'Liberation Day' tariffs on 2 April. Although a 90-day pause was quickly announced for most trading partners, the 10% baseline import duty and levies on aluminium and industrial metals led to selloffs across regional indices. Oil prices also took a hit, as Brent crude dropped to under $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.

The GCC is well positioned to survive the trade wars, however. Oil, energy and various petrochemicals products remain exempt from US tariffs, and with low regulatory barriers and the capacity to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities, the region's economies pride themselves on being trade-friendly. By building on the strong relations that regional leaders enjoy with the Trump administration, GCC states can hope to emerge from the assault relatively unscathed.

In the May edition of MEED Business Review, we take an in-depth look at how regional governments hope to avoid the worst of the hits from US tariffs, examine the impact of the tariff regime on Gulf stock markets and assess the additional damage that falling prices will cause for oil exporters across the Middle East and North Africa region.

MEED's latest issue also includes a 17-page market report on the UAE, which explores how solid fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals will help the country ride out the global uncertainty caused by the imposition of US tariffs. UAE financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading, and an expected increase in oil production, continued chemicals sector growth, expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in real estate will all help the UAE to weather the storm.

In addition, this month's issue features MEED's 2025 GCC Contractor Ranking, which reveals an increase in orders across the region in the past year. While the GCC’s most active contractor is Saudi Arabia’s Nesma & Partners, with $13.9bn of work at the execution stage, Beijing-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation has continued to grow strongly to secure second place this year, just $300m behind Nesma with $13.5bn.

This issue is also packed with analysis. We examine the steps that are being taken by Damascus to reassure regional partners and lay the groundwork for the reconstruction of war-torn Syria; look at what Saudi Arabia and Oman are doing to attract local and international miners; and learn how UAE sovereign wealth fund Mubadala is investing in a low-carbon future.

In the May issue, the team also speaks exclusively to Walter Simpson, the former managing director of CC Energy Development (CCED), about the oil producer’s plans for growth in Oman; and Iain McBride, head of commercial for gigaproject multi-asset developer Roshn Group, who lays out the procurement strategy that is enabling the company to navigate the challenges presented by Saudi Arabia’s construction boom.

We hope our valued subscribers enjoy the May 2025 issue of MEED Business Review. 

 

Must-read sections in the May 2025 issue of MEED Business Review include:

> AGENDA: 
> GCC shelters from the trade wars
> Gulf markets slide as US tariff shockwaves hit
> Lower oil prices raise Gulf’s fiscal pressure

> CURRENT AFFAIRS:
> Syria makes progress towards reunification

INDUSTRY REPORT:
2025 GCC contractor ranking 
> Contractors take on more work in 2025

> MINERALS: Saudi Arabia and Oman open up their minerals potential

> INTERVIEWS:
> CCED seeks growth in Oman’s hydrocarbons sector
> A case study in procurement 

> LEADERSHIP: Rethinking investments for a lower-carbon future

> UAE MARKET REPORT: 
> COMMENT: UAE is poised to weather the storm
> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
> DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north

> MEED COMMENTS: 
> Opec+ shows defiance in the face of sliding oil prices
> Corruption may hinder Iraqi oil pipeline reopening
> Mall of the Emirates sets trends again with $1.4bn revamp
> Abu Dhabi infrastructure entity will help forge partnerships

> GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index inches upwards

> MARCH 2025 CONTRACTS: Region records $70.3bn of deal signings in first quarter of 2025

> ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects

> OPINION: Trump’s new world order

> BUSINESS OUTLOOK: Finance, oil and gas, construction, power and water contracts

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    The GCC’s banking sector is facing its most significant test in years following the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran, and the subsequent strikes launched by Iran on all six GCC states.

    The data so far indicates that the region’s finances are holding firm. “Fitch believes GCC sovereign ratings generally have sufficient headroom to withstand a short regional conflict that does not escalate significantly further, including in most cases substantial assets that provide a buffer against short-term hydrocarbon revenue disruption,” it said in a report on 3 March.

    In the UAE, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) issued a statement on 5 March saying that the nation’s banking and financial sector continues to operate normally. It said the UAE’s banking assets now exceed AED5.42tn ($1.48tn), supported by a capital adequacy ratio of 17% and a liquidity coverage ratio of 146.6%, adding that both figures sit comfortably above international regulatory requirements.

    “The UAE’s banking and financial sector continues to maintain very strong levels of capital adequacy and liquidity … reflecting the scale, resilience and strength of financial institutions operating in the country,” said Khaled Mohamed Balama, governor of the CBUAE.

    While the immediate financial metrics are sound, the broader operating environment is not without its challenges. Fitch notes that the attacks raise risks to the 2026 baseline, which had previously assumed robust non-oil growth driven by the region’s massive pipeline of diversification projects.

    Economic impact

    The conflict has already impacted the real economy. Air travel suspensions, a slowdown in consumer activity and shifting risk perceptions regarding tourism could weigh on non-oil GDP if the tension lingers. Fitch highlighted that the key metric to monitor will be the “strength of operating conditions, particularly non-oil growth and general confidence in the region”.

    The critical variable remains the duration of the conflict. If hostilities are contained within a month – as is the current expectation among analysts – the impact on GCC economic growth is likely to be temporary.

    There are specific regional nuances to watch. While most GCC banks enjoy ample liquidity, those in Qatar and Saudi Arabia have historically faced tighter conditions. “The conflict could make it more challenging for GCC-based entities to issue debt in overseas capital markets. This could particularly increase Saudi banks’ reliance on more expensive domestic markets,” said Fitch. 

    For now, the strategy from both regulators and ratings agencies is one of cautious optimism. The region’s capital expenditure programmes and diversification drives provide a structural momentum that is difficult to derail in the short term.

    Fitch concluded that as long as energy infrastructure remains intact and public spending continues to shore up growth, the GCC’s financial institutions are well-positioned to navigate the crisis.

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  • Fitch Ratings sees limited oil price impact of Iran conflict

    5 March 2026

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    The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf by Iran since 28 February is likely to be temporary given its vital economic role in global oil trade, according to credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.

    This, alongside global oil market oversupply, should limit oil price rises and mitigate any potential disruptions to Iranian oil supply, Fitch Ratings said in a note.

    As a result, the ratings agency does not expect significant upside to its December 2025 assumption of an average Brent oil price of $63 a barrel for 2026.

    “The strait is not formally closed, but vessels are increasingly avoiding it given the risk of attack by Iran or its proxies. Oil majors have halted shipments for safety reasons, and insurers are cancelling war risk cover for vessels. However, we expect this effective closure of the strait to be temporary. It is a vital artery for seaborne oil transportation, with limited alternative routes,” said Angelina Valavina, EMEA head of Natural Resources and Commodities at Fitch Ratings.

    Oil prices rose on 5 March, extending a rally as the ‌escalating US-Israeli war with Iran continued to disrupt supplies, prompting some major producers to cut production and others to take measures to ensure supply security.

    Brent crude was up $2.35, or 2.9%, at $83.75 a barrel at 12pm Gulf Standard Time, a fifth session of gains. US ​West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.42, or 3.2%, to $77.08.

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    “Prior to the conflict, around 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products transited the strait, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of global oil consumption. About half of the oil volumes transported through the strait are exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the remainder from Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. About half of these exports go to China and India.

    “A protracted closure would affect both exporting and importing countries and therefore is not our baseline assumption. If the strait were to remain effectively closed for a protracted period, naval protection for tanker navigation could be considered, as occurred during the 1980s' Iran-Iraq war,” Valavina said in the note from Fitch Ratings.

    “In addition, the global oil market is oversupplied, which should limit the geopolitical risk premium and cap risks to oil price increases. Global supply growth exceeded demand growth in 2025. Fitch expects this trend to continue in 2026. Supply increased by about 3 million b/d in 2025, while demand grew by well below 1 million b/d,” Valavina said.

    “We forecast supply growth of 2.4 million b/d in 2026, with demand growth of about 0.8 million b/d. Half of 2025-26 supply increases come from unaffected non-Opec+ producers. Opec+ spare production capacity is 4.3 million b/d,” she added.

    “In addition, global observed oil inventories rose by 1.3 million b/d in 2025 to reach their highest level since March 2021. Total global inventories stood at 8.2 billion barrels at end-2025. This is sufficient to cover a halt in oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz for over 400 days.

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  • Alec resumes project operations across the UAE

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    UAE-based construction firm Alec has resumed on-site and in-office operations across its UAE projects from 4 March.

    In a statement, the company said that it is working closely with clients to ensure a prompt and safe return to full-scale activity.

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    “That trust has been built over decades of delivering on our promises, and it is something we value deeply,” he said.

    Lewis added that the company would continue to focus on transparency and close collaboration with clients and partners to maintain safety across sites and offices.

    Lewis also pointed to Alec’s investments in digital collaboration platforms, workforce management systems and enhanced security protocols, describing them as “tried and tested” capabilities that have helped keep projects on track while protecting employees.

    He said the company remained confident in the resilience of its operations and its ability to adapt responsibly as circumstances evolve.

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    Saudi Arabia’s Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (AWPT) has won a five-year contract from Jeddah Municipality for stormwater network services in the city.

    The contract covers the operation and cleaning of stormwater and surface water networks in the airport’s sub-municipality area of Jeddah, AWPT said in a statement to the Saudi stock exchange.

    Valued at $25m, the contract forms part of ongoing efforts by Saudi municipalities to maintain and upgrade urban stormwater infrastructure as cities expand and face increasing pressure on drainage systems.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Jeddah Municipality awarded two major stormwater infrastructure contracts in 2025.

    The awards covered phases one and two of the King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road (KAFA) tunnel project, each valued at about $175m.

    The contracts were awarded to Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company for the construction of large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels. US-based Aecom is the consultant for the project.

    As MEED previously reported, the contracts for the three-year scheme were initially tendered in 2024.

    In January, AWPT won another contract with state-owned utility National Water Company (NWC) to operate and maintain water assets in Tabuk City.

    The scope of work includes the operation and maintenance of water networks, pump stations, wells, tanks and related facilities over a 36-month period.

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