Maghreb provides cause for optimism

27 July 2023

Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor

Despite high inflation, the Maghreb region appears in better health in 2023 as the shocks from Covid-19 and the food inflation from the war in Ukraine recede into the background. The estimated real GDP growth rate for the region is now at 4.4 per cent, up from a meagre 0.7 per cent the year before.

Central to this growth is the recovery of Libya, which has benefitted from a period of relative stability. Morocco’s growth has also crept up, to 3 per cent, while Algeria’s remains respectable, at 2.6 per cent. Only Tunisia is faltering, amid its ongoing political and economic crisis, with its growth dropping to 1.3 per cent. Public debt remains a problem, but regional debt levels have stabilised amid higher growth.

Algeria’s priority is maximising the gains from recent spikes in gas prices, and catering to European countries interested in bolstering Algerian gas production as an alternative to Russia. This is good news from a project perspective, with the state energy firm Sonatrach planning to invest more than $30bn in gas exploration and production, with a view to boosting exports.

Libya’s fortunes hang on restoring its prior oil production levels, and this is pinned to maintaining security and political stability. Amid the current relative calm, Libya’s National Oil Corporation and Italy’s Eni have discussed investing up to $9bn in developing new gas reserves. Short of a settlement to unite east and west, however, the country will remain on the edge politically.

Morocco’s recent angle is also all about energy, but of the renewable energy and hydrogen export type. Solar to hydrogen could also be a multibillion-dollar opportunity in the country, with foreign interests looking to develop green hydrogen schemes. Serbian investor CWP Global is planning a 15GW solar-to-hydrogen project budgeted at $20bn. UK firm Xlinks also hopes to establish an $18bn solar plant linked directly to the UK grid.

Tunisia’s economy is undercut by structural issues and the persisting political chaos since the election of President Kais Saied, whose most recent surprise act was to reject a $1.9bn IMF bailout deal. The EU offered an alternative option for financial assistance in July in exchange for assistance on migrant transit, but Tunis’ balance of payments situation remains dire.

While recent trends are cause for optimism, the Maghreb region continues to be highly exposed to global energy and commodity markets, and therefore vulnerable to future shocks.


This month's special report on the Maghreb includes: 

ECONOMYMaghreb states chart varying growth paths
> OIL & GASMaghreb energy project activity doubles
> LIBYA OIL SECTORLibya has potential for energy project surge
LIBYA OIL & GOVERNANCELibya seeks to rebuild oil sector credentials
LIBYA OIL & GAS SNAPSHOT: Renewed focus on Libya as a source of oil and gas
> MOROCCO ENERGYMorocco gas and fertiliser project activity surges
> POWERMorocco leads Maghreb energy transition
CONSTRUCTIONBig construction plans offer hope to Maghreb market

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John Bambridge
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    There has been a sharp rise in investment in projects aimed at expanding the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Gulf region since the start of this decade.

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    Gulf players are keen to cater to this growing demand and dominate the global supply market, fuelling a wave of investment in large-scale production-boosting projects and terminal construction schemes. 

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    Taking the lead

    Qatar has been jostling with the US and Australia for the title of world’s largest LNG provider for many years. Each of these three producers have clinched the top spot at different points, only to be unseated by one of the others again.

    However, when its North Field LNG expansion starts to come online later in this decade, Qatar will be able to consolidate its position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of LNG in the long term.

    State enterprise QatarEnergy is understood to have spent almost $30bn on the two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme, North Field East and North Field South, which will increase its LNG production capacity from 77.5 million t/y to 126 million t/y by 2028. Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the two projects are making progress.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts in 2021 for the North Field East project, which is projected to increase LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The main $13bn EPC package, which covers engineering, procurement, construction and installation of four LNG trains with capacities of 8 million t/y, was awarded to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda Corporation and France’s Technip Energies in February 2021.

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    France’s TotalEnergies has also committed to becoming a major LNG supplier in the sultanate. In partnership with state energy holding conglomerate OQ, TotalEnergies has achieved final investment decision on a major LNG bunkering and export terminal in Oman’s northern city of Sohar.

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    The joint venture is also planning an LNG bunkering terminal and storage units located in Sohar port, and a solar photovoltaic plant to power the LNG terminal.

    The Marsa LNG terminal will have a single train with the capacity to process about 1 million t/y of natural gas into LNG. The bunkering terminal will mainly supply LNG as a marine fuel to vessels. Marsa LNG has selected France’s Technip Energies to perform EPC works on the estimated $1bn project.

    Adnoc’s ambitions

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has historically been one of the GCC’s smaller LNG producers. Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Gas operates three large gas processing trains on Das Island. 

    At its Das Island terminal, Adnoc Gas has an LNG liquefaction and export capacity of about 6 million t/y. The facility’s first and second trains were commissioned in the 1970s and have a total combined output capacity of 2.9 million t/y. The third train came into operation in the mid-1990s and has a capacity of 3.2 million t/y.

    The LNG production and export capability of Adnoc Gas will receive a major boost when a new greenfield terminal that it has committed to developing in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, comes online before the end of this decade.

    The planned LNG export terminal in Ruwais will have the capacity to produce about 9.6 million t/y of LNG from two processing trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 million t/y. The facility will ship LNG mainly to key Asian markets, such as Pakistan, India, China, South Korea and Japan.

    In March, Adnoc Group announced that it had issued a limited notice to proceed to a consortium of contractors for early EPC works on the Ruwais LNG terminal project. 

    The limited notice to proceed was given to a consortium led by Technip Energies, consisting of Japan-based JGC Corporation and Abu Dhabi-owned NMDC Energy.

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