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Maghreb energy project activity doubles

12 July 2023

 

The total value of active oil, gas and chemical projects in the Maghreb region has more than doubled since the start of 2021 amid increased energy demand from Europe in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia’s energy project markets have all expanded, according to data collected by MEED Projects.

Libya has seen a slight contraction, but appears to have laid the foundation for a steady increase in activity as long as it can maintain a degree of political stability.

The total value of all active oil, gas and chemical projects across all four countries stands at $90.8bn, more than double the figure recorded in January 2020, when the total was just $43.9bn.

With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, European nations have made a significant effort to support oil and gas projects in Libya and Algeria in the hope of paving the way for increased imports that can be used as an alternative to Russian hydrocarbons.

Additionally, Morocco, home to the world’s largest concentrated solar plant, has increasingly been identified as a promising location for producing green hydrogen and fertiliser projects.

More on Algeria’s oil, gas and chemicals sectors:

> TotalEnergies signs Algeria gas deal
> Chinese contractor signs Algerian petrochemical deal
> Repsol and Pertamina sign Sonatrach oil deal
> Banks provide financing for Algeria chemicals plant
> Petrofac signs $1.5bn Algerian petrochemicals deal
> Contractors bid for Algeria chemicals plant
> Algeria seeks upstream oil and gas consultants

Algeria

In terms of oil, gas and petrochemicals projects, Algeria is by far the region’s largest projects market, with $43.1bn in energy projects.

The North African country has seen a 45 per cent increase in the total value of active oil, gas and chemical projects since the start of 2021, according to MEED Projects.

Algeria’s energy project expansion has been mainly driven by gas projects, with the total value of all active gas projects more than doubling from $10.8bn in January 2021 to $22bn in June 2023.

Chemical and oil project activity has also risen significantly, growing by 12.2 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively.

Despite years of poor maintenance at some of its biggest oil and gas fields, the country is taking advantage of its extensive gas reserves, its geographical proximity to Europe, and Europe’s need for alternatives to Russian gas exports.

European officials have repeatedly visited Algeria, seeking to help boost Algerian production and secure increased gas imports.

In January, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called Algeria Rome’s “most stable, strategic and long-standing” partner in North Africa when she wrapped up a two-day visit aimed at securing Italy’s energy supplies and promoting her plan for investment in the continent.

On 23 January, the Italian international oil and gas company Eni announced that it would study joint projects with Algeria’s state-owned energy company Sonatrach to improve the country’s energy export capacity.

In August 2022, the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, also travelled to Algeria as it became increasingly clear that Algerian gas imports would provide a key role in Europe’s energy mix.

Algeria has also secured higher prices for gas transported to Spain, where it supplied 25 per cent of the country’s gas deliveries in January, more than any other supplier.

In January, Sonatrach announced plans to invest more than $30bn in exploration and production to boost the country’s natural gas output.

The funds will also be spent on upgrading infrastructure to export gas from liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and by pipelines to Europe, according to the company’s chief executive Toufik Hakkar.

Hakkar said that Algeria wants to become one of the world’s most important sources of natural gas through Sonatrach and its planned investments.

Amid the increased demand for Algerian energy, there has been a series of major announcements regarding new projects and contracts in the country.

These include the announcement that UK-based Petrofac had signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for an estimated $1.5bn Algerian petrochemicals project.

Petrofac has partnered with China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Corporation, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, for the Step Polymers project, which is due to be developed in the Arzew Industrial Zone to the west of Algiers.

At the end of 2022, Algeria revived phase two of the Touat natural gas field development project.

The project is estimated to be worth $1bn and is being developed by Groupement TouatGaz, a partnership between Sonatrach and London-based Neptune Energy.

The project scope includes the development of 19 wells, the construction of a gas treatment plant and the installation of pipelines.

In November last year, Sonatrach signed a series of contracts with the Italian contractors Tecnimont and Arkad, as well as local contractors, in a push to develop its hydrocarbons sector.

The contracts, all signed at a single ceremony, were worth more than $660m.

The contracts included one worth AD56bn ($400m) with Tecnimont for a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) facility at its Rhourde el-Baguel oil field.

The plant is expected to process 10 million cubic metres a day (cm/d) of associated gas, producing 1,000 tonnes a day (t/d) of LPG, 300 t/d of condensate and 8.7 million cm/d of gas.

More on Libya’s oil, gas and chemicals sectors:

> Libya has potential for energy project surge
> Libyan pipeline contract awarded
> Libyan oil company in pipeline procurement talks
> Libya’s Waha Oil plans water plant
> Halliburton in talks for $1bn Libya oil project
> UK delegation to meet Libyan oil officials
> Eni signs gas deal in Libya

Libya

Like Algeria, Libya has extensive hydrocarbon reserves and existing export routes, making it a good candidate for replacing Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe.

While the total value of active oil, gas and chemical projects in the country declined by 14.5 per cent to $9.7bn between the start of 2021 and June 2023, its energy projects market holds the potential to expand significantly over the coming months if there is no decline in the security situation.

Libya pipeline can boost Europe gas exports

Since the start of the Ukraine war, a series of major oil and gas deals have been signed in the country. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has ramped up tendering under the leadership of Farhat Omar Bengdara, appointed in July last year.

In January, NOC announced a partnership with Italy’s Eni to develop two regions containing expected gas reserves of 6 trillion cubic feet with an estimated production capacity of 750 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas for 25 years.

NOC chairman Bengdara and Eni chairman Claudio Descalzi signed the deal. The Italian company said the agreement would generate between $7bn and $9bn of investment into the country’s oil and gas industry.

In March, it was announced that a subsidiary of NOC had signed a contract with US-based Honeywell for engineering work on the planned South Refinery project in Libya.

Zallaf Oil & Gas Company said in a statement that the project would be carried out in two phases and is expected to cost between $500m and $600m.

Libya’s Waha Oil Company is in advanced talks with US-based Halliburton over a $1bn project to rehabilitate the country’s Al-Dhara oil field.

The oil field in central Libya has suffered from years of poor maintenance and was sabotaged by Islamic State militants in 2015.

If the contract is signed soon, it could help provide a significant boost to Libyan oil exports and send a signal to other international oil companies that are wary about investing in the country due to concerns about security.

More on Tunisia and Morocco’s oil, gas and chemicals sectors:

> Tunisia gas pipeline to complete before 2024
> Tunisia tenders study for refinery project
> Tunisia receives gas transmission bids
> Morocco fertiliser project progresses towards approval
> Nigeria to invest $12.5bn in Morocco pipeline
> Genel in talks to develop Moroccan oil assets
> Design completed for Moroccan gas project

Tunisia and Morocco

The dynamics in the energy projects sector in Tunisia and Morocco are different from those in Libya and Algeria because they lack the same large volumes of hydrocarbon reserves.

While Tunisia has more than doubled the value of active oil, gas and chemical projects within its borders since the start of 2021, it remains the Maghreb’s smallest energy project market.

As of 20 June 2023, it had just $1.7bn in energy projects, according to data compiled by MEED Projects.

While Morocco also lacks large volumes of hydrocarbons, it has seen a significant expansion in gas and petrochemicals projects.

The North African country is currently evaluating bids for a floating LNG import terminal in Mohammedia Port that is estimated to be worth $200m.

A project estimated to be worth $190m is also ongoing to develop the country’s offshore Anchois gas field.

The major driver of growth in the country’s chemical projects market has been phosphate fertiliser projects and green hydrogen and ammonia schemes.

In December 2022, it was announced that Total Eren, affiliated with France’s TotalEnergies, was planning to construct a hydrogen and green ammonia plant in Morocco estimated to be worth about $10bn.

Main image: View of Skikda Port, Algeria

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10968982/main.gif
Wil Crisp

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    Qatar has the region’s most bullish real GDP outlook, with its 2.9% growth in 2025 expected to accelerate to 6.1% in 2026, driven by a liquefied natural gas expansion and rising non-oil output. The projects market is also strengthening again after the post-2022 World Cup lull. Awards increased by 24% in the past 12 months, rising to 30% above the 10-year average and expanding the value of projects under execution by 8%.

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    Kuwait follows with a robust 2026 growth forecast of 3.9% and double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses (before contributions to the Future Generations Fund).

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    Saudi Arabia has a real GDP growth projection of 4% for both 2025 and 2026. Despite strong fundamentals, the country has slid into current account and fiscal deficits, and pressure on spending has contributed to a 23% year-on-year decline in project awards.

    Even so, the projects market remains buoyant, with award activity still 65% above the 10-year average – driving up the value of projects under execution by 8% in the past year.

    Rising fortunes

    Morocco has recently posted strong economic growth and project activity. Real GDP growth hit 4.4% in 2025 and is expected to be sustained at 4.2% in 2026 despite fiscal fragility and high unemployment. The projects market has stabilised at around $10bn in awards for the second year running – double the long-term average – lifting the value of projects under execution by 15%.

    Oman’s real GDP growth is expected to increase from 2.9% in 2025 to 4% in 2026. Fiscal reforms have kept spending disciplined, but this has constrained project investment. Contract awards have fallen by 50% in the past 12 months, dropping below recent peaks and settling 15% under the long-term average.

    Morocco's projects market has stabilised at around $10bn in awards for the second year running – double the long-term average

    Jordan is set for just 2.9% real GDP growth in 2026, and continues to face severe fiscal pressures. However, January saw the landmark award of the $6bn Aqaba-Amman water desalination and conveyance scheme – by far the largest project in Jordan and expected to stimulate activity across industrial supply chains. Financial close for the scheme is anticipated by early 2026.

    Struggling economies

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    Iraq is emerging from 0.5% growth in 2025 towards a much more positive forecast of 3.6% growth in 2026. Baghdad is spending heavily on projects, with more than $30bn contracts awarded in the past 12 months – double the long-term average, and for the second year running.

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  • Investors focus on residential sector for new deals

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    This package also includes: Saudi real estate to surge in 2026
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    Saudi Arabia’s real estate market continued to gather momentum at the Cityscape Global 2025 event, with a record SR237bn ($63.1bn) of deals signed.

    The event was held on 17-20 November at the Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Centre and was inaugurated by Saudi Municipalities & Housing Minister Majed Al-Hogail.

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    The headline of the event was the series of agreements … signed by Saudi Arabia’s NHC

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    A SR525m ($140m) contract was awarded to local firm Zaid Alhussain & Brothers Group for infrastructure works in the Khuzam area north of Riyadh, while Saleh Abdulla Almahana Company secured a SR651m ($173m) contract to build 1,290 units for the Rose House project in Al-Ahsa.

    NHC also awarded Riyadh-based Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company a contract to carry out infrastructure works at its Khuzam residential development in Riyadh. The scope of work covers all infrastructure works across an area of 4 million sq m.

    NHC also announced the construction of 1,085 villas within the Al-Ghoroub project in Medina.

    More announcements

    NHC’s signings were complemented by further deals announced by major developers and government entities.

    > Diriyah: Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company awarded two construction contracts with a combined value of over SR5.7bn ($1.5bn) on the sidelines of the event.

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    > Urubah Investment: Local firm Urubah Investment unveiled a 53-floor residential and commercial tower in Riyadh’s Al-Yasmin district, with a built-up area of 160,000 sq m.

    > Zood Real Estate: The firm announced the launch of a 10-tower mixed-use project on Riyadh’s Northern Ring Road.

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    > Alothaim: The firm announced the launch of three mixed-use projects in Dammam, Medina and Khamis Mushait.

    > Al-Majdiah Development: The firm signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Alinma Bank to develop financing solutions that support its future projects.

    > Roshn Group: The Saudi gigaproject developer signed partnership agreements for educational and residential developments and the localisation of supply chains. These include an MoU with the UK’s Cognita Schools to develop a private school in its Sedra residential community in Riyadh.

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    > Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company: The firm signed an agreement with Al-Rajhi Bank to purchase two real estate financing portfolios worth SR10bn ($2.6bn).

    > Osus Real Estate: The developer launched two mixed-use projects in the Al-Malqa and Al-Qayrawan districts of Riyadh, with a total investment of about SR3bn ($800m).

    > Liwan Real Estate: The firm launched a 151,300 sq m project comprising 2,500 residential units, along with a hotel, offices and commercial facilities, at an investment of SR4.5bn ($1.2bn).

    > Kooheji Developments: The firm launched a three-tower development with 1,250 units, located in Al-Khobar.

    > Bank Albilad: The bank launched a SR4.4bn ($1.1bn) fund to develop a mixed-use project in the Qurtuba district of Riyadh.

    > SAB Invest: Together with Dallah Health and Aljazira Capital, SAB Invest will develop medical, commercial and hotel facilities near Dallah Al-Nakheel Hospital in Riyadh at an investment of SR1.2bn ($319m).

    > Heyazah: The firm announced a mixed-use project spanning 103,000 sq m in the vicinity of King Salman Park in Riyadh.

    > Riyad Capital: The investment company launched a SR1.7bn ($453m) fund to develop the One Mountain View project, featuring over 500 villas in the north of Riyadh.

    > Al-Basateen: The developer launched the Al-Basateen Tower project at the intersection of Riyadh’s Northern Ring Road and King Fahd Road.

    > Alinma Bank: The bank launched a fund worth SR3bn ($800m) to develop 2.7 million sq m of land in the Al-Janadriyah district of Riyadh.

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    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi real estate to surge in 2026

    29 December 2025

     

    This package also includes: Investors focus on residential sector for new deals
    Deals worth $63.1bn were signed at the Cityscape Global 2025 property show in Riyadh

    After nearly a decade of Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) taking on the delivery burden of the kingdom’s largest projects, Riyadh is now turning to private sector real estate developers to help deliver its ambitions. 

    The shift reflects both opportunity and necessity. The PIF-led model has enabled Saudi Arabia to fast-track its gigaprojects and anchor Vision 2030’s transformation objectives. Riyadh is now looking for the private sector to maintain this momentum.

    Opening the market

    To encourage more real estate activity, the kingdom’s long-awaited foreign ownership law was approved in August 2025. It will come into force in early 2026 after a 180-day implementation period. It introduces a comprehensive structure for non-Saudi ownership of real estate.

    The law allows non-Saudi individuals and companies to own, lease and use property in designated areas, subject to restrictions by type and location. Foreign residents can own one home for personal use outside restricted zones, excluding Mecca and Medina. 

    Meanwhile, companies with foreign shareholders can acquire real estate across the kingdom, including in Mecca and Medina, provided it is for business purposes or employee housing and in line with financial regulations. 

    The intention is to help Saudi Arabia tap into international property demand – as Dubai has done – to boost foreign direct investment (FDI). 

    In 2024, the kingdom attracted SR119bn ($31.7bn) in FDI, up 24% year-on-year and 37% above earlier estimates, but still short of the $100bn annual target for 2030. 

    Manufacturing led inflows with SR35bn, followed by wholesale and retail trade, construction and financial and insurance services. Real estate did not feature among the top-performing sectors, underlining the potential for growth.

    Land and finance

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    The white land tax is likely to have a dual effect. It should prompt some landowners to bring idle plots into development, sell to active developers or enter into partnerships, thereby alleviating a long-standing structural bottleneck in Riyadh and other major cities. At the same time, it introduces a new cost for holding undeveloped land, which will need to be priced into feasibility studies and could initially push some asking prices higher as owners seek to pass on part of the burden.

    Over time, if enforcement is seen as consistent and predictable, the white land tax could help normalise more active land markets and support the private sector’s expanded delivery role. But 2026 is likely to be a transitional year, with a mix of opportunistic sales, legal challenges and recalibrated land valuations.

    The government has also intervened directly in the rental market, most notably with a rent freeze in Riyadh. 

    In response to double-digit rent increases in some districts, driven by non-oil growth, gigaprojects and corporate relocations, the authorities have imposed a five-year suspension of annual rent increases for residential and commercial leases in the capital.

    For tenants, the freeze offers immediate relief and increases predictability, particularly for middle-income households and small businesses exposed to volatile rents. It also serves as a counterweight to fears that opening the market to foreign buyers in 2026 will drive another surge in rental prices.

    For investors and developers, however, the impact is more challenging. Compressed rental growth in Riyadh reduces the upside on income-producing assets, especially where financing structures assumed steady nominal increases. 

    Running alongside these regulatory reforms is a quieter but significant development in real estate finance: the launch of Saudi Arabia’s first residential mortgage-backed securities by PIF subsidiary the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company. This new asset class aims to enhance liquidity in the housing finance market and diversify investment opportunities.

    In the longer term, a thriving, diversified real estate sector underpinned by such instruments can support the development of a broader ecosystem of mortgage issuers, servicers and investors, reducing systemic risk and broadening access to housing finance.

    As the kingdom takes deliberate steps to open its market to foreign buyers, mobilise idle land, protect tenants and strengthen financial infrastructure, much will depend on execution. If the new foreign ownership rules are applied effectively, 2026 could mark the start of a more sustainable, private sector-led growth phase. If not, uncertainty could dampen the very investment the reforms aim to attract. 

    READ: Investors focus on residential sector for new deals

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    Colin Foreman
  • Navigating financial markets amid geopolitical fragmentation

    28 December 2025

     

    As we move towards 2026, geopolitical fragmentation is no longer a background risk that occasionally disrupts markets.

    It has become a defining feature of the global financial landscape. Shifting alliances, persistent regional tensions, sanctions and the reconfiguration of supply chains are reshaping how capital flows, how liquidity behaves and how confidence is formed.

    For firms operating in the Middle East, this does not simply mean preparing for more volatility. It means operating in a system where the underlying rules are evolving.

    For much of the past three decades, businesses and investors worked within a broadly convergent global framework. Trade expanded, financial markets deepened and policy coordination – while imperfect – created a sense of predictability. That environment has changed.

    Today, economic decisions are increasingly influenced by strategic alignment, security considerations and political resilience. Markets still function, but they do so in a more fragmented and less forgiving way.

    Shifting landscape

    One of the most important consequences of this shift is that risk no longer travels along familiar paths. In the past, geopolitical events were often treated as temporary shocks layered onto an otherwise stable system.

    Today, they shape the system itself. Trade flows are influenced as much by political compatibility as by cost efficiency. Supply chains, once optimised for speed and scale, are reorganising into regional or allied clusters. Financial markets respond not only to data, but to narratives about stability, alignment and long-term credibility.

    This change places greater pressure on firms that rely on historical relationships to guide decisions. Models built on past correlations – between interest rates and equity markets, or between energy prices and regional growth – are less reliable when markets move between different regimes. The challenge is not simply higher volatility, but the fact that correlations themselves can shift quickly.

    Monetary policy adds a second layer of complexity. Major central banks are no longer moving in step. The US, Europe and parts of Asia face different inflation dynamics and political constraints, leading to diverging interest-rate paths.

    For the GCC, where currencies are largely pegged to the US dollar, this divergence has direct consequences. Local financial conditions are closely tied to decisions taken by the Federal Reserve, even when regional economic conditions follow a different cycle.

    This matters because funding costs, liquidity availability and hedging conditions are shaped by global rather than local forces. When US policy remains tight, dollar liquidity becomes more selective. When expectations shift abruptly, market depth can disappear quickly.

    For firms with international exposure, long-term investment plans, or reliance on external financing, these dynamics require careful management. They cannot be treated as secondary macro considerations.

    Energy markets further complicate the picture. The Middle East remains central to global energy supply, which means geopolitical events often interact with oil prices and financial conditions at the same time.

    When shifts in energy expectations coincide with changes in global interest-rate sentiment, liquidity conditions can tighten rapidly. This interaction is well known in academic research on fixed exchange-rate systems, but its practical implications are often underestimated in corporate planning.

    Expanding vulnerabilities

    These dynamics expose clear vulnerabilities. Concentrated supply chains are more susceptible to disruption. Financing structures dependent on continuous market access are more exposed to sudden repricing. Risk management approaches that assume stable relationships between assets are more likely to disappoint. Operational risks – particularly in technology and data – are increasingly shaped by geopolitical considerations rather than purely technical ones.

    At the same time, the region enters 2026 from a position of relative strength. GCC economies benefit from fiscal buffers, long-term investment programmes and a growing perception of stability compared to other parts of the world. In an environment where uncertainty is widespread, predictability itself becomes valuable. Capital increasingly seeks jurisdictions that combine economic ambition with institutional credibility.

    The question, therefore, is not whether opportunities exist, but whether firms are prepared to capture them responsibly. This requires a shift in how future risks are assessed and embedded into decision-making. Linear forecasts and static plans are insufficient when the environment itself can change state. Scenario thinking must evolve beyond optimistic and pessimistic cases to reflect different combinations of geopolitical alignment, monetary conditions, and supply-chain stability. These scenarios should inform capital allocation, not sit in strategy documents.

    Liquidity and risk management discipline also become central. In both trading and corporate finance, experience shows that many failures stem not from being wrong on direction, but from being overexposed when conditions change. Scaling risk to market conditions, maintaining funding flexibility and understanding how quickly liquidity can evaporate are essential practices. This is as true for corporate balance sheets as it is for trading books.

    Operational resilience must be viewed through the same lens. Supply-chain redundancy, cybersecurity preparedness and data governance are no longer purely operational concerns. They influence financial stability, investor confidence and regulatory trust. In a fragmented world, operational disruptions can quickly translate into financial and reputational damage.

    Facing the future

    As we approach 2026, leadership in the Middle East faces a clear test. The global environment is unlikely to become simpler or more predictable. Firms that continue to rely on assumptions shaped by a different era will find themselves reacting rather than positioning. Those that invest in disciplined risk management, flexible planning and operational resilience will be better placed to navigate uncertainty and to turn volatility into strategic advantage.

    In this environment, risk management is not an obstacle to growth. It is the framework that makes sustainable growth possible.

    Ultimately – and this is an often overlooked critical point – none of these adjustments, whether in scenario planning, liquidity discipline, or operational resilience, can be effective without the right human capital in place. 

    Geopolitical fragmentation and financial volatility are not risks that can be fully addressed through models or policies alone. They require informed judgement, institutional memory and the ability to interpret weak signals before they become material threats or missed opportunities. 

    Firms that succeed in this environment will be those that deliberately invest in corporate knowledge: building internal capabilities where possible and complementing them with external expertise where necessary. This means involving professionals with the right background, cross-market experience and a proven, proactive approach to risk awareness and governance. 

    In a fragmented world, competitive advantage increasingly depends not only on capital or strategy, but on the quality of people entrusted with understanding risk, challenging assumptions and guiding decision-making under uncertainty.

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  • Oman’s growth forecast points upwards

    24 December 2025

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    MEED Editorial