Maghreb economies battle trading headwinds
8 July 2025
Investors in Morocco’s stock market are enjoying a strong bull run. In the first six months of this year, the Moroccan All Shares Index gained 24%, following a 22% rise last year. It hit a record close of 18,690 points in early June this year and, after a brief dip, was growing strongly again in early July, threatening to break through the 19,000-point barrier for the first time.
A combination of low interest rates and strong performances from local companies is helping to boost the market. There is also optimism sparked by the country’s role as a co-host of the 2030 football World Cup (alongside Spain and Portugal) and all the infrastructure spending that will flow from that.
The country’s relative economic strength is also reflected in project activity. Of the 749 projects currently planned or under way across the Maghreb region, 322 are in Morocco, according to data from MEED Projects. The leading sectors are power and water, transport and construction.
There are, though, reasons for caution. While Morocco’s stock market traders may have been doing well, all the Maghreb economies are facing some tricky international trading conditions, which could become more severe in the coming months and years.
Of the 749 projects currently planned or under way across the Maghreb region, 322 are in Morocco, according to data from MEED Projects
Global headwinds
Weak economic conditions in Europe, the region’s most important trading partner, pose a particular threat. Key markets, such as France, Germany and Italy, are experiencing anaemic growth rates, which could lead to softer demand for the Maghreb region’s exports, as well as weaker tourism and investment flows across the Mediterranean.
The imposition of tariffs by US President Donald Trump is also having a negative impact. However, the chaotic way in which the policy is being enacted means it is unclear just how much pain the duties might ultimately cause. Algeria, Libya and Tunisia look set to be worst affected, with tariff rates of 28-31% on their exports to the US, compared to 10% for Morocco.
The region’s direct trade with the US is relatively limited, but if higher tariffs dent global demand, that could have a larger impact on more export-oriented economies such as Morocco and Tunisia.
Oil market trends are likely to add to the pressure on Algeria and Libya this year, as producers continue to ramp up output. On 5 July, the eight Opec+ countries – which include Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – agreed to produce an additional 548,000 b/d from August. That will put further downward pressure on oil prices.
“A sharp drop in activity in emerging markets will be a negative for global oil demand for the rest of 2025 and into 2026,” said Edward Bell, chief economist of the Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD on 7 July. “Just the fear of policy uncertainty will be enough to limit investment.”
Other issues are also hard for the Maghreb countries to control. For example, the frequent droughts of recent years have dented agricultural activity and exports.
Among other challenges, most governments are running budget deficits and are struggling to create enough jobs for their growing populations. Unemployment in Morocco remains at around 13%, according to the IMF. It is in double figures in neighbouring countries too, according to the International Labour Organisation; Libya’s unemployment rate is probably nearer 20%.
Inward FDI into Algeria rose by 18% last year to reach $1.4bn, while in Tunisia it was up 21% to $936m and in Morocco it increased 55% to $1.6bn
Rising resilience
The Maghreb region is nevertheless showing signs of resilience, despite the various negative pressures. Inflation has been easing back in most countries in recent years and foreign direct investment (FDI) has been growing strongly.
According to the latest Unctad World Investment Report, inward FDI into Algeria rose by 18% last year to reach $1.4bn, while in Tunisia it was up 21% to $936m and in Morocco it increased 55% to $1.6bn.
A few industries are attracting some large investment deals, with Gulf money often to the fore. The UAE, for example, is helping to finance a 7,000-kilometre, $25bn gas pipeline from Nigeria to Morocco. A consortium of the UAE-based Masdar, Egypt’s Infinity and Germany’s Conjuncta is also backing a $34bn green hydrogen project in neighbouring Mauritania.
More recently, albeit on a far smaller scale, the Saudi Fund for Development signed a $38m loan agreement on 27 June this year to set up the Oasis Hub Project in southern Tunisia, which includes rural housing, infrastructure and agriculture schemes.
Some big projects have come unstuck, though. A plan by UK-based Xlinks to export power from Morocco to the UK via a 4,000km subsea cable has lost the support of the London government. On 26 June, junior energy minister Michael Shanks told the UK parliament it had decided the project was “not in the UK national interest at this time”.
There was disappointment in Morocco at the turn of events. In the short term, however, economic growth this year is expected to be a healthy 3.9% in Morocco and 3.5% in Algeria – equal to or better than last year, according to IMF data. Mauritania is expected to grow by 4.4%, which is less than in recent years, but still ahead of its neighbours.
Tunisia is expected to lag behind, at just 1.4%, as the country’s authoritarian leadership struggles to come up with a viable economic model. A draft of the 2026-30 development plan has been promised before the end of the year by the Ministry of Economy and Planning secretary-general, Faouzi Ghrab. Libya’s outlook depends on domestic political factors that look as far from resolution as ever.
Morocco, meanwhile, is intent on solidifying its position as a regional industrial and financial hub, with its thriving stock market serving as an important lever. It is still ranked as a frontier market by index company MSCI, but is hoping for promotion to emerging market status.
The launch of derivatives trading in May is part of efforts to attract more liquidity and secure that higher ranking. Some simpler reforms might also be useful – MSCI pointed out in a June report that stock market information was not always readily available in English, which hindered its accessibility.
Yet, if the market continues to grow as rapidly as it has recently, investors are likely to find a way to address such shortcomings.
Exclusive from Meed
-
Firms submit bids for Palm Jebel Ali villas
1 August 2025
-
New Murabba and Alat sign Mukaab project MoU
1 August 2025
-
Saudi company in talks over Iraq chemicals project
1 August 2025
-
-
Qatar launches bid to host 2036 Olympic Games
31 July 2025
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends

Related Articles
-
Firms submit bids for Palm Jebel Ali villas
1 August 2025
Contractors submitted bids on 31 July for a contract to build approximately 550 additional villas on fronds A to F of Palm Jebel Ali, an artificial island located south of Jebel Ali Freezone.
Dubai-based real estate developer Nakheel, now part of local developer Dubai Holding, issued the tender in February.
It is understood that several local firms, including Shapoorji Pallonji, United Engineering Construction (Unec), Parkway International Contracting and Ginco General Contracting, have submitted bids.
US-headquartered Turner International is the project management consultant. Dubai-based Omnium International is the cost consultant.
This latest tender follows Nakheel’s award of three infrastructure contracts worth over AED750m ($204m) to local firm Dutco Construction for works on Palm Jebel Ali.
Completion is expected by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The infrastructure work includes utility connections, excavation, backfilling, and the construction of roads and pavements across fronds A to G. It also covers 11-kilovolt power distribution and telecommunications-related utility works.
In the Spine District, infrastructure development will involve installing utility mains, connecting them to fronds, and constructing primary and secondary roads.
The project also includes rough grading for the Dubai Electricity & Water Authority power transmission line serving Palm Jebel Ali and associated works.
In October last year, Nakheel awarded three contracts worth AED5bn ($1.3bn) for the construction of 723 villas on fronds K to P.
The contracts were awarded to local firms including Ginco General Contracting, Shapoorji Pallonji and Unec.
Ginco will deliver 197 villas on fronds O and P, Shapoorji Pallonji will construct 275 villas on fronds M and N, and Unec will build 251 villas on fronds K and L.
Villa construction is expected to be completed by 2026.
These contract awards followed an AED810m ($220m) contract awarded in August last year to complete the reclamation works for the project.
The contract was awarded to Belgium’s Jan de Nul. Its scope includes dredging, land reclamation, beach profiling and sand placement, to support the construction of villas on all fronds.
Nakheel released details of the new masterplan for Palm Jebel Ali in June 2023. Twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, Palm Jebel Ali will have 110 kilometres of shoreline and extensive green spaces. The development will feature more than 80 hotels and resorts, along with a range of entertainment and leisure facilities.
It includes seven connected islands that will cater to approximately 35,000 families. The development also emphasises sustainability, with 30% of public facilities expected to be powered by renewable energy.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14384117/main.jpg -
New Murabba and Alat sign Mukaab project MoU
1 August 2025
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s New Murabba Development Company (NMDC) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Alat, a Public Investment Fund (PIF)-backed company, to explore the development and integration of technologies supporting the Mukaab project.
The MoU also covers potential future technology needs across the wider New Murabba downtown development.
“The collaboration focuses on developing innovative technologies for Mukaab by integrating advanced systems,” NMDC said in a statement issued by the official Saudi Press Agency.
The agreement includes exploring vertical transportation solutions – such as elevators and escalators – to support mobility within the Mukaab and other New Murabba developments.
The statement added that “the MoU will also explore optimal funding strategies for initial investments in hardware and research and development, while evaluating the feasibility of establishing production facilities within the kingdom”.
This announcement follows other MoUs signed by NMDC in recent weeks. In July, it signed an MoU with South Korea’s Heerim Architects & Planners to explore additional design work for assets within the 14-square-kilometre New Murabba downtown project.
Heerim will examine architectural concepts aligned with the project’s masterplan, focusing on anchor assets, linear parks and smart city features.
Earlier in July, NMDC signed an MoU with another South Korean firm, Naver Cloud Corporation, to explore technological solutions for delivering the New Murabba downtown project.
According to an official statement: “The three-year agreement covers exploring innovative technology and automation to support the delivery of New Murabba, including robotics, autonomous vehicles, a smart city platform and digital solutions for monitoring construction progress.”
Also in July, NMDC announced the completion of excavation works for The Mukaab, the centrepiece of the overall development.
The Mukaab is a Najdi-inspired landmark set to become one of the largest buildings in the world, standing 400 metres high, wide and long.
Internally, it will feature a tower atop a spiral base, with 2 million square metres of floor space dedicated to hospitality. The structure will include commercial areas, cultural and tourist attractions, residential and hotel units, and recreational facilities.
Downtown destination
The New Murabba destination will have a total floor area of more than 25 million sq m and feature more than 104,000 residential units, 9,000 hotel rooms and over 980,000 sq m of retail space.
The scheme will include 1.4 million sq m of office space, 620,000 sq m of leisure facilities and 1.8 million sq m of space dedicated to community facilities.
The project will be developed around the concept of sustainability and will include green spaces and walking and cycling paths to promote active lifestyles and community activities.
The living, working and entertainment facilities will be developed within a 15-minute walking radius. The area will use an internal transport system and will be about a 20-minute drive from the airport.
The downtown area will feature a museum, a technology and design university, an immersive, multipurpose theatre, and more than 80 entertainment and cultural venues.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14383040/main.jpg -
Saudi company in talks over Iraq chemicals project
1 August 2025
Saudi Arabia-based Ajyal is in talks with Iraq’s Ministry of Industry & Minerals to establish a petrochemicals plant in Basra, in southern Iraq.
A recent meeting at the ministry’s headquarters, chaired by Minister Khaled Battal Al-Najm, brought together a delegation from Ajyal and ministry officials.
The proposed complex would be built on the site of the State Company for Petrochemical Industries in Basra province.
During the meeting, participants discussed the terms of the potential partnership and evaluated proposed mechanisms for supplying the project with feedstocks of natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas or alternative energy sources. Technical and legal considerations were also reviewed.
Al-Najm emphasised the project’s strategic importance, calling it one of the ministry’s most promising initiatives to revitalise Iraq’s strategic industries and strengthen its industrial base.
He called for continued negotiations and coordination with relevant parties to secure the requirements needed to advance the project.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14383013/main5143.jpg -
Saudi Defence Ministry sets September deadline for headquarters
1 August 2025
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has set a deadline of 30 September for contractors to submit commercial bids for a tender to build a new headquarters building, as part of its P-563 programme in Riyadh.
The MoD issued the tender in April. MEED understands that technical bids were submitted in June.
Located to the northwest of Riyadh, the P-563 programme includes the development of facilities and infrastructure to support the MoD’s broader initiatives under the kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy.
It covers the construction of:
- A new military city featuring the MoD headquarters, support and logistics facilities, a residential and commercial community, and space for future command centres
- A National Defence University with a library, conference centre and academic buildings
- A self-sustaining Joint Forces Command compound located approximately 50 kilometres from the military city
The budget for the entire programme is expected to be around $10bn-$12bn.
In September 2023, MEED reported that Spain-headquartered Typsa had won two contracts for the project.
The first contract, worth $11.4m, includes data management, geographic information systems management, geotechnical reporting and the preparation of the phase one final traffic report. The contract duration is 270 days from the notice to proceed.
The second contract, valued at $10.8m, involves preparing four conceptual masterplans for the P-563 site. It is set to last 255 days from the notice to proceed.
These followed a $290m consultancy contract awarded to Typsa in March of the same year. The single-award task order covers a three-year base period, with an optional two-year extension.
Typsa’s scope of work includes programme management planning, communication, change and quality management, and cost and schedule tracking.
It also includes design requirements, codes, standards and submission requirements, programme guidance, study integration, risk analysis and management, design reviews and a programme of work breakdown plan.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14382810/main.jpg -
Qatar launches bid to host 2036 Olympic Games
31 July 2025
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
The Qatar Olympic Committee (QOC) has announced a bid to host the 2036 Olympic and Paralympic Games.
If successful, Qatar would be the first country in the Middle East and North Africa to host the event.
Qatar hosted the men’s Fifa World Cup in 2022 and already has “95% of required sports infrastructure in place to host the Games” and “a comprehensive national plan to ensure 100% readiness of all facilities”, said QOC president Sheikh Joaan Bin Hamad Al‑Thani.
“This move underscores the State of Qatar’s unwavering commitment to supporting the Olympic and Paralympic Movements and its keen interest in playing an active role in the advancement of global sport,” a QOC statement said.
“Building on the monumental success of the Fifa World Cup Qatar 2022, we reaffirm our readiness to bring the world together under the banner of the Olympic values just as we did in 2022, when Doha welcomed over one million travelling fans from around the globe.
“Our journey to 2022 was one of tremendous growth. The path toward 2036 will build on that foundation with a new kind of legacy: an achievement that crowns Qatar’s efforts to develop skills and create economic opportunities for all its people.
“This plan is rooted in a long-term vision aimed at building a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable legacy. Our objective goes beyond simply organising a successful event. We aim to deliver a global experience that reinforces the values of inclusivity, sustainability and international collaboration.”
On 31 July, the QOC formed a bid committee for the 2036 Games, chaired by Sheikh Joaan, with Sheikha Hind Bint Hamad Al‑Thani, vice-chairperson of Qatar Foundation, as vice-chair.
If Qatar’s bid succeeds, the 2036 Games will likely move to winter to avoid extreme summer heat – as the 2022 World Cup did.
Other confirmed bidders for 2036 include Istanbul (Turkiye), Ahmedabad (India), Nusantara (Indonesia) and Santiago (Chile).
Reported potential bidders include Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Egypt, Italy, Germany, Denmark and Canada.
Qatar previously bid unsuccessfully for the 2016 and 2020 Olympics, which ultimately went to Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo.
The Summer Olympics are scheduled for Los Angeles, US, in 2028 and Brisbane, Australia, in 2032.
Qatar’s bid reflects a broader Gulf strategy to position the region as a premier destination for major international sports events.
Doha will host the Asian Games in 2030, one year after Saudi Arabia hosts the Asian Winter Games in Trojena.
In March, Asia Rugby chief Qais Al‑Dhalai announced Qatar is preparing a joint bid with Saudi Arabia and the UAE for the 2035 or 2039 Rugby World Cup.
Saudi Arabia made a solo bid and won the rights in December to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup.
The 2026 Fifa World Cup will be held in North America across 16 cities in the US, Canada and Mexico. Morocco will co-host the 2030 edition of the football World Cup with Spain and Portugal.
READ THE AUGUST 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF
Gulf heads into a new era of aviation; Maghreb’s resilience rises despite global pressures; GCC banks expand issuance amid demand
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA 1: Middle East invests in giant airports> AGENDA 2: Broader region upgrades its airports> AGENDA 3: Global air travel shifts east> CURRENT AFFAIRS: Syria wrestles fragile security situation> GCC BANKS: Gulf banks navigate turbulent times> CONSTRUCTION: Soudah Peaks outlines project construction plans> INTERVIEW: SETS leads Saudi heritage preservation charge> LEADERSHIP: From plastic leakage to leadership in the Gulf> MAGHREB MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb pushes for stabilityTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14377255/main3942.jpg