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Lummus targets large contracts in Saudi Arabia

26 September 2023

 

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US-headquartered petrochemicals specialist Lummus Technology is expecting to grow rapidly in Saudi Arabia over the next decade, according to the company’s chief technology officer Ujjal Mukherjee.

Mukherjee is in the process of moving his entire team from the US to Saudi Arabia in order to capitalise on opportunities in the Middle East.

“The Middle East and North Africa are a key focus for us because of the scale of the planned capital expenditure in our industry,” he says.

“Within the region, Saudi Arabia is the most important to us because of the investments in petrochemicals that are planned.

“Qatar is also important because of its plans for natural gas and petrochemicals, but in terms of investment, Saudi Arabia is not just leading the region, but the entire world.”

Lummus is anticipating as many as 10 or 11 ethane crackers to be installed in Saudi Arabia over the next seven to eight years

Project expectations

Lummus says that Saudi Arabia’s plans to develop facilities with the capacity to convert 4 million barrels of crude oil to chemicals represent $100bn-$200bn in investment.

As part of the push to boost crude-to-chemicals production, Mukherjee is expecting at least four or five greenfield complexes to be developed in Saudi Arabia.

On top of this, he says there are several opportunities to upgrade existing facilities in the country, both in the eastern Jubail area and in the west coast’s Yanbu region.

Across all of these greenfield and upgrade projects, Lummus is anticipating as many as 10 or 11 ethane crackers to be installed over the next seven to eight years.

“This is a huge investment – and that is why everyone in the world of petrochemicals is focused on Saudi Arabia,” says Mukherjee.

“Elsewhere, China is slowing slightly and the Russian market is off limits. There are opportunities in Southeast Asia and India specifically, but the GCC nations are the most important.”

In addition to the GCC states, Lummus has significant interest in markets across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, including Egypt and Turkiye.

Turkiye is of particular interest because of its stated aim of becoming self-sufficient in terms of petrochemicals production, according to Fadi Mhaini, Lummus Technology’s managing director for Mena.

Turkiye is also in a financial position that means investments in world-scale petrochemicals plants are feasible.

The investment climate in Egypt is more challenging, but it remains of interest because of its significant reserves of oil and gas, large population and internal demand for petrochemicals products.

“There are 100 million people living in Egypt and there is a great demand for polymers and plastics,” says Mhaini.

Per capita consumption of plastics in Egypt is estimated to be 21.8 kilograms (kg) a year. This is compared to more than 130kg in the US.

Lummus sees this as a potential sign of pent-up demand for plastics and says new facilities that come online in Egypt could see significant success by supplying the local market.

Saudi challenges

While there are big opportunities in Saudi Arabia’s petrochemicals sector, Mukherjee says it remains a market with significant challenges.

“The biggest challenge we have is getting subject matter expertise in the complex technologies that we license, especially with the focus on employing local skilled labour,” he says.

“We have a lot of graduates coming from good universities there, but you need a certain degree of experience in absorbing these complex technologies.”

A key area of focus for Lummus is growing the number of experienced specialists that it employs and accelerating the transfer of knowledge from its experienced workers to the local talent pool in Saudi Arabia, as well as in other markets, including the UAE.

In order to achieve this goal, the company plans to create centres of excellence across the Mena region.

It has already created one in Bahrain, and says that it has proven effective at providing education for local operators in complex technologies and advanced computing tools.

By recruiting locally and relocating experienced staff from around the world, Lummus expects to grow its Saudi Arabia office from an initial size of about 50 employees to more than 200 in the next three to four years, according to Mukherjee.

While the cornerstone of business activities for Lummus is technology licensing, it plans to use its Saudi office to work with local companies to provide a wide range of services, including the provision of engineering work and of spare parts and equipment.

Project acceleration

Since Lummus was spun off by McDermott in a $2.7bn deal in 2020, one of the key strategic changes is a renewed focus on project streamlining and reduced project completion times.

Mukherjee says this has positioned the firm well to win contracts in Saudi Arabia, where the country’s leadership is keen to execute large-scale projects on an accelerated schedule.

“As soon as we learned that we were going to be an independent company, we decided to take advantage of all of the engineering tools that are part of our ecosystem and use them to accelerate the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) processes,” he says.

“We have used very advanced engineering tools to dramatically reduce the time it takes us to do early engineering and front-end engineering and design work.

“This means that we have to work with very highly skilled engineering contractors and get them started very early on in the procurement cycle.”

As part of Lummus Technology’s new focus on executing projects on an accelerated schedule, it has started to work more closely with several EPC contractors.

“Closer working relationships with these companies are a key way of creating a win-win situation for everyone involved,” he says.

Lummus estimates that the upcoming greenfield oil-to-chemicals projects in Saudi Arabia are each expected to be worth $20bn-$35bn.

“The size of these projects means that there is no EPC contractor in the world that can take them on alone,” says Mukherjee.

Fear of risk

One of the key challenges in Saudi Arabia’s petrochemicals projects sector is that several large international contractors are less keen to take on contracts that use the EPC model due to the potential risks.

Many companies are worried that unpredictable price inflation could mean the EPC contract model would leave them out of pocket if the cost of materials and equipment suddenly increases.

“Even working in consortium, there are very few companies globally that are well equipped to execute complex projects on this scale on an accelerated time schedule,” says Mukherjee. “The technology is there, but there is a risk averseness among many large EPC companies that have been burnt in the past.”

While the projects are difficult and will require close cooperation between different contractors, Mukherjee is confident that his company will play a key role in many of the planned petrochemicals facilities in Saudi Arabia.

He says it is likely that his company will win contracts on many of Saudi Arabia’s upcoming petrochemicals projects, and that the firm is expanding the office so that it can cooperate closely with clients and subcontractors in the country to provide quicker response times to any queries.

“By moving there, we want to make sure that [clients and subcontractors in] Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE know that they will not have to cross time zones to get immediate responses,” Mukherjee says.


Ujjal Mukherjee, Fadi Mhaini and the Mena team

Market outlook

Lummus is optimistic about how Saudi Arabia’s investment in petrochemicals production will benefit the country’s economy in the long term.

Mukherjee says Saudi Arabia could become an increasingly powerful force in global petrochemicals markets in the coming years if it manages to successfully execute the planned projects to an accelerated schedule.

“What Saudi Arabia has is one of the cheapest raw materials for petrochemicals production. The same is true for Qatar and Abu Dhabi,” he says.

“Very cheap oil and gas gives Saudi Arabia a huge advantage and competitive edge over places like South Korea.”

Mukherjee says that, in the past, South Korea maintained a competitive edge in terms of managing project schedules and costs.

He adds that a petrochemicals project that could be completed in 36-42 months in South Korea would previously have taken 60-72 months in Saudi Arabia.

Now, the difference is being reduced by Saudi Arabia’s plans to execute projects using an accelerated schedule.

“If Saudi Arabia can do it, it will put itself in a position where it will be a dominant force when it comes to manufacturing certain polymers,” he says.

Aligning the scheduled start-up of Saudi Arabia’s new wave of planned petrochemicals projects with trends in the global market is likely to be key to the kingdom's success, according to Mukherjee.

In the past year and half, the prices of key petrochemicals products have been subdued as large projects have come online in China and other locations.

This temporarily created an oversupply in certain chemicals despite global per-capita consumption having increased, Mukherjee says.

He believes global prices will stabilise after 2030 and that demand will outstrip that for both gasoline and diesel.

By the end of this decade, Mukherjee expects that demand for polyethylene in particular will start to grow robustly, as is demand for polypropylene – and that Saudi Arabia will be well positioned to take advantage of this growth.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11170351/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

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    The war in the Gulf is now inflicting deep damage on the region’s economies. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts contraction in every GCC state except Oman in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to shrink by 3.3%, after 4.6% growth in 2025, and the UAE’s by 3.9%, after 6.2% growth.

    The IMF expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Qatar’s by 15.6% and Bahrain’s by 11.3%, as energy and transport disruption cuts exports. Oman, with routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, is forecast to grow by 4.1%.

    The fund has cut its 2026 forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by 2.2 percentage points since April, to a contraction of 0.3%, citing a longer closure of the strait than it had previously assumed. The revision for Saudi Arabia is 6.4 percentage points. The IMF now assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027, with a return to prewar conditions broadly by October 2027.

    There is little sign of an early end to hostilities. On 10 October, a Houthi-attributed strike on a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Airport operations were suspended and several international airlines cancelled flights.

    Yet the region’s projects market is holding up far better than its economies. Data from MEED Projects shows that contract awards in 2026 have proved resilient, with clients across the GCC continuing to commit capital to new schemes.

    The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies

    Resilient awards

    The UAE leads the regional market for a second consecutive year, with the value of contract awards 6.1% higher than in the same period of 2025. Oman and Kuwait are also running ahead of last year’s pace, despite the IMF’s forecast that Kuwait’s economy will contract by about a sixth.

    Saudi Arabia has awarded $68.8bn of contracts so far this year, 13% less than in the same period of 2025. Given that the kingdom has been the main target of the Houthi campaign, and was already revising its spending priorities before the conflict, the decline is modest.

    The comparison is against a high base. The past three years have seen unprecedented GCC capital expenditure, supported by higher oil prices, residential demand and national vision programmes. More than three quarters has been concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    The gap between economic output and project spending reflects the nature of the projects market. Governments and state-linked entities can sustain capital budgets through a downturn using reserves and borrowing. GDP contraction, by contrast, reflects lost oil and gas exports, tourism and trade.

    The UAE’s performance this year has been driven by the gas and transport sectors, which have recorded the strongest growth. Construction, the country’s largest sector, has declined as the real estate market has cooled.

    Abu Dhabi has been the standout performer. Contract awards in the capital are up 35% on the same period of last year, with growth across the construction, gas, oil and transport sectors.

    Public spending is a central reason for that resilience. Fitch Ratings expects Abu Dhabi’s spending to rise by 19% this year, equivalent to 3.7% of GDP, to support the non-oil economy. Data from the Central Bank of the UAE shows consolidated government capital expenditure rose to AED18.6bn ($5.1bn) in Q1 2026 from
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    Fitch expects UAE infrastructure and government-related entity capital spending to rise significantly in 2026 and 2027, both to strengthen resilience against future conflicts and stimulate the economy. Emirates have already accelerated tendering on several projects.

    Transport remains a priority. Plans include further sections of the national passenger rail network, a high-speed rail link between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, a light rail system in Abu Dhabi and the Dubai Metro Gold Line. The $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport in Dubai is moving towards delivery with the award of the first major construction packages.

    Economic headwinds

    Both the IMF and Fitch expect a strong rebound once the strait reopens. The IMF forecasts 2027 growth of 7.7% in the UAE, 7.9% in Saudi Arabia, 18.8% in Qatar and 17.1% in Kuwait. Fitch forecasts UAE non-oil growth of 6.1% next year. Paul Gamble, senior director at Fitch, cautioned that prolonged insecurity “will call into question logistical advantages” that underpin the UAE’s growth model.

    Beneath the headline award totals, there are warning signs. Regional contract awards performed well between March and June, but the value of work awarded in recent months has dropped sharply compared with the same months of 2025. According to MEED Projects, the main cause is a fall in the number of tenders being issued, particularly in real estate.

    The timing is significant. The strong period included the April ceasefire, when clients appear to have pressed ahead expecting a short conflict. Tendering slowed as hostilities resumed. In July, Iranian attacks reached Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, while Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia began.

    The pattern suggests conflict fatigue may be setting in, with clients deferring projects amid a war with no clear end date. As tendering is a leading indicator, the impact on awards is likely to become more visible in coming months.

    In Saudi Arabia, monthly performance has been mixed as the market adjusts to revised spending priorities and the regional conflict. Most sectors are up on last year, with the exception of power and water, which has struggled in 2026, possibly as a result of overbuilding in the past three years. The kingdom’s gigaprojects have continued their retreat. Awards peaked at $31.7bn in 2023 and fell to $14.4bn in 2025. The total so far in 2026 is $9.4bn, most of it for work at Qiddiya, Diriyah and Rua Al-Madinah.

    The GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years

    Dubai slowdown

    The clearest signal of the conflict’s impact on the projects market comes from Dubai. The emirate’s market performed strongly until May. Since then, activity has been subdued, and contract awards for the year to date are 0.6% lower than in the same period of 2025.

    The main cause is a decline in residential contract awards. Data from Bayut and the Dubai Land Department shows a marked fall in the value of off-plan sales since late February, when the war began. Residential construction awards have fallen in step, with no sign of the time lag that would normally be expected.

    Third-quarter figures from Savills confirm the trend. Residential transactions fell 38% year on year to 34,500, and transaction value dropped 46% to AED70.8bn ($19.3bn) from AED132.2bn. The decline was concentrated in the off-plan segment, where value fell to AED45.7bn in Q3 from AED61.3bn in Q2, while ready-market value rose to AED25.1bn from AED21.3bn.

    Developers have sharply reduced new launches. Savills recorded about 5,000 units launched in Q3, taking the total for the year to date to about 50,000, roughly 64% below the same period of 2025. Fewer launches mean fewer construction contracts, which explains why residential awards have fallen so quickly. More than 525,000 units are scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030, which Fitch says could add pressure to a sector accounting for 8% of non-oil GDP if population growth weakens.

    Escaping Hormuz

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    The IMF’s forecasts underline the value of those routes. It describes Saudi Arabia as “somewhat less affected” than its neighbours because of its more diversified export routes, while Oman is the only GCC state forecast to grow this year. Houthi strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu in September show that Red Sea infrastructure is not beyond reach, however. Defence spending is rising in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and repair and rehabilitation work will add to the pipeline once hostilities end.

    The long-term fundamentals remain strong: the GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years, about half of it in Saudi Arabia. Many of the kingdom’s priorities are tied to fixed dates, with Riyadh hosting the World Expo in 2030 and Saudi Arabia hosting the Fifa World Cup in 2034.

    The capacity to fund this pipeline depends on oil revenues. MEED’s assessment is that crude prices must remain above $70-$80 a barrel for spending levels to be maintained. With exports through Hormuz disrupted, the volume of oil Gulf producers can move to market matters as much as the price.

    The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies. The question for the final quarter is whether the slowdown in tendering is a temporary pause or the start of a sustained retreat. If the IMF’s assumption of a March 2027 reopening of the strait holds, clients will be setting their 2027 budgets with a rebound in sight. If it slips, the resilience of contract awards will face a sterner test. 

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