Lummus targets large contracts in Saudi Arabia

26 September 2023

 

Register for MEED's guest programme 

US-headquartered petrochemicals specialist Lummus Technology is expecting to grow rapidly in Saudi Arabia over the next decade, according to the company’s chief technology officer Ujjal Mukherjee.

Mukherjee is in the process of moving his entire team from the US to Saudi Arabia in order to capitalise on opportunities in the Middle East.

“The Middle East and North Africa are a key focus for us because of the scale of the planned capital expenditure in our industry,” he says.

“Within the region, Saudi Arabia is the most important to us because of the investments in petrochemicals that are planned.

“Qatar is also important because of its plans for natural gas and petrochemicals, but in terms of investment, Saudi Arabia is not just leading the region, but the entire world.”

Lummus is anticipating as many as 10 or 11 ethane crackers to be installed in Saudi Arabia over the next seven to eight years

Project expectations

Lummus says that Saudi Arabia’s plans to develop facilities with the capacity to convert 4 million barrels of crude oil to chemicals represent $100bn-$200bn in investment.

As part of the push to boost crude-to-chemicals production, Mukherjee is expecting at least four or five greenfield complexes to be developed in Saudi Arabia.

On top of this, he says there are several opportunities to upgrade existing facilities in the country, both in the eastern Jubail area and in the west coast’s Yanbu region.

Across all of these greenfield and upgrade projects, Lummus is anticipating as many as 10 or 11 ethane crackers to be installed over the next seven to eight years.

“This is a huge investment – and that is why everyone in the world of petrochemicals is focused on Saudi Arabia,” says Mukherjee.

“Elsewhere, China is slowing slightly and the Russian market is off limits. There are opportunities in Southeast Asia and India specifically, but the GCC nations are the most important.”

In addition to the GCC states, Lummus has significant interest in markets across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, including Egypt and Turkiye.

Turkiye is of particular interest because of its stated aim of becoming self-sufficient in terms of petrochemicals production, according to Fadi Mhaini, Lummus Technology’s managing director for Mena.

Turkiye is also in a financial position that means investments in world-scale petrochemicals plants are feasible.

The investment climate in Egypt is more challenging, but it remains of interest because of its significant reserves of oil and gas, large population and internal demand for petrochemicals products.

“There are 100 million people living in Egypt and there is a great demand for polymers and plastics,” says Mhaini.

Per capita consumption of plastics in Egypt is estimated to be 21.8 kilograms (kg) a year. This is compared to more than 130kg in the US.

Lummus sees this as a potential sign of pent-up demand for plastics and says new facilities that come online in Egypt could see significant success by supplying the local market.

Saudi challenges

While there are big opportunities in Saudi Arabia’s petrochemicals sector, Mukherjee says it remains a market with significant challenges.

“The biggest challenge we have is getting subject matter expertise in the complex technologies that we license, especially with the focus on employing local skilled labour,” he says.

“We have a lot of graduates coming from good universities there, but you need a certain degree of experience in absorbing these complex technologies.”

A key area of focus for Lummus is growing the number of experienced specialists that it employs and accelerating the transfer of knowledge from its experienced workers to the local talent pool in Saudi Arabia, as well as in other markets, including the UAE.

In order to achieve this goal, the company plans to create centres of excellence across the Mena region.

It has already created one in Bahrain, and says that it has proven effective at providing education for local operators in complex technologies and advanced computing tools.

By recruiting locally and relocating experienced staff from around the world, Lummus expects to grow its Saudi Arabia office from an initial size of about 50 employees to more than 200 in the next three to four years, according to Mukherjee.

While the cornerstone of business activities for Lummus is technology licensing, it plans to use its Saudi office to work with local companies to provide a wide range of services, including the provision of engineering work and of spare parts and equipment.

Project acceleration

Since Lummus was spun off by McDermott in a $2.7bn deal in 2020, one of the key strategic changes is a renewed focus on project streamlining and reduced project completion times.

Mukherjee says this has positioned the firm well to win contracts in Saudi Arabia, where the country’s leadership is keen to execute large-scale projects on an accelerated schedule.

“As soon as we learned that we were going to be an independent company, we decided to take advantage of all of the engineering tools that are part of our ecosystem and use them to accelerate the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) processes,” he says.

“We have used very advanced engineering tools to dramatically reduce the time it takes us to do early engineering and front-end engineering and design work.

“This means that we have to work with very highly skilled engineering contractors and get them started very early on in the procurement cycle.”

As part of Lummus Technology’s new focus on executing projects on an accelerated schedule, it has started to work more closely with several EPC contractors.

“Closer working relationships with these companies are a key way of creating a win-win situation for everyone involved,” he says.

Lummus estimates that the upcoming greenfield oil-to-chemicals projects in Saudi Arabia are each expected to be worth $20bn-$35bn.

“The size of these projects means that there is no EPC contractor in the world that can take them on alone,” says Mukherjee.

Fear of risk

One of the key challenges in Saudi Arabia’s petrochemicals projects sector is that several large international contractors are less keen to take on contracts that use the EPC model due to the potential risks.

Many companies are worried that unpredictable price inflation could mean the EPC contract model would leave them out of pocket if the cost of materials and equipment suddenly increases.

“Even working in consortium, there are very few companies globally that are well equipped to execute complex projects on this scale on an accelerated time schedule,” says Mukherjee. “The technology is there, but there is a risk averseness among many large EPC companies that have been burnt in the past.”

While the projects are difficult and will require close cooperation between different contractors, Mukherjee is confident that his company will play a key role in many of the planned petrochemicals facilities in Saudi Arabia.

He says it is likely that his company will win contracts on many of Saudi Arabia’s upcoming petrochemicals projects, and that the firm is expanding the office so that it can cooperate closely with clients and subcontractors in the country to provide quicker response times to any queries.

“By moving there, we want to make sure that [clients and subcontractors in] Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE know that they will not have to cross time zones to get immediate responses,” Mukherjee says.


Ujjal Mukherjee, Fadi Mhaini and the Mena team


Market outlook

Lummus is optimistic about how Saudi Arabia’s investment in petrochemicals production will benefit the country’s economy in the long term.

Mukherjee says Saudi Arabia could become an increasingly powerful force in global petrochemicals markets in the coming years if it manages to successfully execute the planned projects to an accelerated schedule.

“What Saudi Arabia has is one of the cheapest raw materials for petrochemicals production. The same is true for Qatar and Abu Dhabi,” he says.

“Very cheap oil and gas gives Saudi Arabia a huge advantage and competitive edge over places like South Korea.”

Mukherjee says that, in the past, South Korea maintained a competitive edge in terms of managing project schedules and costs.

He adds that a petrochemicals project that could be completed in 36-42 months in South Korea would previously have taken 60-72 months in Saudi Arabia.

Now, the difference is being reduced by Saudi Arabia’s plans to execute projects using an accelerated schedule.

“If Saudi Arabia can do it, it will put itself in a position where it will be a dominant force when it comes to manufacturing certain polymers,” he says.

Aligning the scheduled start-up of Saudi Arabia’s new wave of planned petrochemicals projects with trends in the global market is likely to be key to the kingdom's success, according to Mukherjee.

In the past year and half, the prices of key petrochemicals products have been subdued as large projects have come online in China and other locations.

This temporarily created an oversupply in certain chemicals despite global per-capita consumption having increased, Mukherjee says.

He believes global prices will stabilise after 2030 and that demand will outstrip that for both gasoline and diesel.

By the end of this decade, Mukherjee expects that demand for polyethylene in particular will start to grow robustly, as is demand for polypropylene – and that Saudi Arabia will be well positioned to take advantage of this growth.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11170351/main.jpg
Wil Crisp
Related Articles
  • Dubai moves to next phase of Al-Quoz sewerage project

    13 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality’s AED500m ($136m) sewerage and stormwater network development project in Al-Quoz Creative Zone is on track for full completion by January 2027, a source has told MEED.

    The timeline follows Dubai Municipality’s announcement that it has completed the first phase at a cost of AED250m ($68m).

    Phase one included the construction of sewerage and stormwater drainage networks covering 155 hectares and 123 plots. Dubai Municipality said it laid 15 kilometres of sewerage pipelines with diameters ranging from 160mm to 1,600mm. It also developed 14 kilometres of stormwater drainage lines with pipe diameters of between 200mm and 3,000mm.

    The overall project covers Al-Quoz Industrial Areas 1, 2, 3 and 4, as well as the area between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al-Khail Road. It spans 1,600 hectares and covers more than 1,507 plots.

    It is understood that the second phase covers the remaining sections of the project beyond the 155-hectare area completed under phase one.

    Local firm DeTech Contracting is the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor on both phases of the scheme.

    The scheme forms part of Dubai’s wider sewerage system development programme and aligns with the AED30bn ($8.1bn) Tasreef programme, which aims to expand stormwater drainage capacity across the emirate.

    The municipality recently opened a tender for a stormwater drainage project covering the Al-Marmoum, Al-Qudra and Al-Yalayis 2 & 3 areas.

    The project is intended to improve stormwater drainage along major roads and surrounding areas within the project zone.

    The works will include the construction of a major gravity drainage system with pipelines of up to 1,600 millimetres in diameter.

    In February, the municipality confirmed it had awarded contracts for five new projects under phase two of the programme to expand and strengthen Dubai’s stormwater drainage network.

    These include two contracts awarded to DeTech Contracting and one to China State Construction Engineering Corporation for stormwater drainage infrastructure.

    In addition, two consultancy contracts were awarded for the study and design of drainage systems in selected areas across the emirate.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369236/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qiddiya signs sports medical centre project deal

    13 April 2026

    Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Centre (KFSHRC) have signed an agreement to establish a sports medical centre within the Qiddiya city project in Riyadh.

    The agreement was signed at KFSHRC’s headquarters in Riyadh by Majid Alfayyadh, CEO of KFSHRC, and Abdullah Al-Dawood, managing director of QIC.

    The facility will provide specialised sports medicine services in line with international standards, the partners said.

    The goal of the agreement is “to create a dedicated centre that supports professional athletes, rising talents and community members, helping to advance sports healthcare in Saudi Arabia”, they said in a statement.

    Under the agreement, KFSHRC will provide technical and operational support, supervise the centre’s operations, and ensure high-quality, integrated services that combine clinical care with research and innovation.

    The Qiddiya Sports Medical Centre will offer services including injury prevention, diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation and performance improvement.

    The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

    The kingdom’s tourism sector posted record-breaking numbers last year, with over 130 million domestic and international visitors entering the kingdom, representing a 6% increase over 2024.


    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia

    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369037/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia restores capacity of affected oil and gas assets

    13 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has announced the restoration of full capacity at critical oil and gas infrastructure damaged in attacks by Iran on 9 April.

    The attacks led to the loss of approximately 700,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude pumping capacity on the East-West oil pipeline, which has been restored to its optimum capacity of 7 million b/d, the ministry said on 12 April.

    The Manifa oil field development in the kingdom’s Eastern Province, which lost 300,000 b/d of production due to the attacks, has also had its output capacity reinstated “within a short period of time”, the ministry said.

    The ministry added that work is still ongoing to restore full production capacity at the Khurais oil field, which also lost 300,000 b/d of capacity in the attacks.

    “This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets, and supporting the global economy,” the Ministry of Energy said.

    Along with the East-West pipeline and the Manifa and Khurais oil field developments, the attacks on 9 April also targeted oil refineries, petrochemical complexes and electricity units in Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.

    These assets include the Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp) facility in Jubail, Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, the Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company (Samref) complex in Yanbu, and the Riyadh refinery, directly affecting exports of refined products to global markets.

    Processing facilities in Juaymah in the Eastern Province were also affected by fires, impacting exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids.

    The ministry’s 12 April statement did not provide updates on the status of those facilities.

    Prior to the 9 April attacks, Saudi authorities reported explosions in Jubail industrial city on 7 April. Saudi air defence systems intercepted seven ballistic missiles targeting the Eastern Province that day, with debris landing near energy facilities, primarily in Jubail.

    Jubail is one of the world’s largest petrochemical production hubs, with annual output of about 60 million tonnes, accounting for an estimated 6%-8% of global supply. A large part of majority state-owned Saudi Basic Industries Corporation’s (Sabic) operations is based in Jubail.

    Jubail also hosts major downstream oil, gas and petrochemical assets operated by Aramco, US-based Dow and France’s TotalEnergies, underscoring the industrial zone’s international significance.


    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368648/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia seeks firms for Riyadh mixed-use project

    13 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority (SPGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has invited expressions of interest from firms to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organisation (SASO) headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The notice was issued on 12 April, with a bid submission deadline of 26 April.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) scheme, named the ‘Quality Valley Riyadh’ project, will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities.

    The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period.

    The project site spans about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are the project advisers.

    In October last year, NCP highlighted the scale and diversity of opportunities in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline.

    “At the moment, we have around 200 projects in the pipeline with a total value of roughly $190bn,” Salman Badr, executive vice president – infrastructure advisory, NCP, said during a MEED webinar.

    The projects are spread across 17 sectors. “We have a very sizeable programme, and it reflects the breadth of the kingdom’s transformation agenda,” he said.

    NCP was established in 2017. It serves as the central authority and catalyst for designing and implementing privatisation and PPP projects across the kingdom.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368638/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

    13 April 2026

     

    The US and Israel’s conflict with Iran is undermining the business case for Middle East LNG projects by driving up prices, destroying demand for the super-chilled fuel, damaging infrastructure and eroding confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers.

    By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has removed around 20% of global LNG supply from the market and, for some importers, has effectively doubled prices.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict.

    The current wave of high prices has exacerbated concerns about LNG price volatility and has already changed the minds of some countries and businesses that were planning to make large investments to facilitate LNG imports.

    If these projects do not go ahead as planned, it could limit future global LNG demand, dimming the long-term outlook for businesses that depend on LNG export revenues.

    As well as facing longer-term demand likely to fall short of previous expectations, LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar are also being hit in the short term as infrastructure has been damaged by Iranian strikes and sales are being blocked by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The lost revenues and ongoing security issues are casting a shadow over major LNG export expansion plans in the GCC, collectively worth more than $35bn, which could now face significant delays.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict

    Affordability issues

    LNG production stopped in Qatar on 2 March 2026 and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, removing around 80 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG supply from global markets.

    The North Field East expansion project, currently under construction and expected to add 32 million t/y, was anticipated to start up in November 2026, but could now face considerable delays.

    The project is estimated to be worth $28.8bn, making it the biggest LNG project ever sanctioned

    In a statement released last month, Daniel Toleman, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz lasting five to six months would push annual global LNG supply into a year-on-year decline.

    “Even if supply were maintained at 2025 levels, the market would still face demand destruction in Asia, lower storage injections in Europe, and sustained upward pressure on gas and LNG prices,” he added.

    “Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.”

    Beyond the closure of the strait, Qatar’s LNG business has also been dealt a significant setback by Iranian attacks on infrastructure.

    Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and minister of state for energy affairs, said the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.

    Repairs to damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.

    UAE setbacks

    The UAE has also seen significant disruption to its LNG operations, with shipments from its only LNG export terminal, located on Das Island, severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Although it has not formally declared force majeure, virtually all of its LNG output has been removed from global markets because it has no pipeline or alternative routes for LNG exports.

    The ongoing energy crisis has increased uncertainty about the UAE’s planned $5.5bn LNG export terminal, being developed at the Ruwais industrial complex.

    In recent weeks, the Ruwais industrial complex was targeted by Iran, causing a fire at the site. The location could also face similar shipping problems to the Das Island facility in the future, as it too requires LNG exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oman exports

    With its LNG export terminals located on the country’s northeast coast, Oman’s exports do not require the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and it has escaped most of the negative impacts that have hit the UAE and Qatar.

    However, Oman’s state-owned integrated energy company, OQ, has still been affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to its activities as an LNG trader.

    Last month, OQ Trading, the company’s international trading and marketing arm, declared force majeure on LNG shipments to Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla.

    Replacing LNG

    Analysts say the demand destruction now taking place in LNG-importing nations is likely to have a long-term impact on future LNG demand.

    Countries where planned LNG import-related projects have been cancelled or are being reconsidered include Vietnam, China and New Zealand.

    Christopher Doleman, a gas specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa), believes that long-term demand for LNG will be eroded by the current crisis.

    “Prior to the war, a lot of countries were already somewhat hesitant to develop new LNG import infrastructure,” he said.

    “There were existing concerns about the high price of LNG and potential volatility, and these concerns have increased significantly since the war began, leading several developers to consider other options, which in some cases include renewables projects.

    “Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years.”

    On 30 March, China’s state-owned energy company Sinopec said it was terminating a planned LNG import terminal project worth 5.6bn yuan ($820m) and reallocating the money to developing domestic gas resources.

    The company said developing domestic resources was more cost-effective than developing LNG import infrastructure.

    In Vietnam, conglomerate Vingroup has asked the government to allow it to replace a planned $6bn LNG power project – previously set to be the country’s largest – with a renewable energy project, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

    US-based GE Vernova, which had been selected to supply gas turbines and generators for the 4.8GW project, was informed of Vingroup’s revised plans in a document sent on 25 March.

    Instead of the LNG-powered plant, Vingroup asked Vietnam’s industry ministry to consider an investment plan for a hybrid renewable energy project combined with a battery energy storage system (bess).

    A bess stores electricity from renewable sources to maximise its use by discharging power during peak demand.

    The document did not specify the type of renewable energy to be used, but estimated the cost of the bess project at around $25bn, saying it would be a viable alternative to the LNG-powered plant if equipped with appropriate transmission infrastructure.

    If Vietnam follows through on its pivot away from LNG towards renewables, it could directly affect future export deals for Qatar, which is currently one of the country’s LNG suppliers.

    Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years
    Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

    Second thoughts

    In New Zealand, plans announced last year for a new LNG terminal on the country’s North Island are becoming increasingly uncertain.

    In February, the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki. But on 30 March, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the government would only approve the project if the business case made sense.

    “If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. Until we see the commercials on it, we’ll make the decision then,” he said.

    Mike Roan, chief executive of New Zealand’s Meridian Energy, said US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on 28 February had made the project much less likely to go ahead.

    “It feels like the Americans might have put a bazooka, literally, through that proposal,” he said.

    It has been reported that ministers are considering replacing the project with a major hydroelectric power station, which was referred to the country’s fast-track consent panel in the last week of March.

    The future of a planned $3bn project to develop an LNG import terminal and gas power plant in South Africa is also now in doubt after executives delayed the final investment decision (FID).

    Speaking at a conference on 4 March, Oliver Naidu from Netherlands-based Royal Vopak said the company now plans to decide on the $3bn terminal in the first quarter of 2028.

    The power station and regasification complex, slated for development in the Durban area, would have had the capacity to produce 1.0-1.8GW of electricity.

    Nuclear and coal

    In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) restarted unit 2 at its Kori nuclear power plant this month.

    The facility had been offline for three years since its original 40-year operating permit expired in April 2023.

    Commenting on the restart, KHNP president Kim Hoe-Cheon said: “In a situation where energy supply instability persists, the continued operation of nuclear power plants based on safety is an important means of securing national energy security.”

    Across Asia, there has also been a surge in the use of both solar and coal amid high LNG prices.

    In Pakistan, the country’s Power Minister, Awais Leghari, said that the country would pivot away from LNG to focus on domestically produced coal.

    “With a reduction in LNG generation, plants running on locally mined coal will be able to produce more during off-peak hours,” Leghari told Reuters.

    Similar coal ramp-ups are also taking place in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

    Coleman believes increased use of both coal and renewables could mean LNG’s role in the global energy mix falls short of previous expectations over the coming years.

    “It’s possible that we will see a dual surge – where both renewables and coal use are ramped up,” he said.

    “This is an interesting prospect because it will effectively remove gas as a so-called ‘bridge-fuel’ and we may see the transition progressing more directly to the use of renewables and battery storage, with less of a role for gas than was previously expected.

    “Really, it’s turned out that LNG was just a bridge to volatility and insecurity compared to something like solar, which is very reliable and predictable.”

    Eroded outlook

    The demand destruction in LNG-importing countries driven by the current energy crisis is likely to mean that the long-term market for LNG exports could be significantly smaller than previously thought, negatively impacting LNG producers worldwide.

    Qatar and the UAE are likely to be hit harder than producers in other regions for several reasons.

    Attacks on infrastructure and disruptions to shipping are preventing them from capitalising on the current period of high prices, while producers in other regions are recording windfall profits.

    In addition, dealing with the logistical and financial consequences of the conflict is likely to divert resources away from progressing new projects, pursuing efficiencies and securing future customers.

    Another factor likely to weigh on LNG operators in Qatar and the UAE is the persistence of customer concerns about the reliability of shipping LNG via the Strait of Hormuz.

    This could compel Adnoc Gas and QatarEnergy to sell at a relative discount compared with sellers in other regions, or to increase contractual flexibility.

    It could even push these producers to rethink future projects to diversify export routes. For Qatar, this could take the form of a gas pipeline via neighbouring countries. For the UAE, one option could be developing an LNG terminal on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing reliance on the bottleneck controlled by Iran.

    While the current conflict is a major setback for LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and security risks diminish, it is likely that exports will ramp up relatively quickly and former clients will return.

    However, questions remain about when this will happen. If safe passage for LNG tankers can be secured within days or weeks, the long-term impact is likely to be limited.

    If disruption continues for longer, it could transform the outlook for the Middle East’s LNG sector for years to come.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16331010/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp