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• 
  Jordan faces fresh round of challenges

  29 June 2026

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  MEED’s July 2026 report on the Levant includes:

  > COMMENT: Levant recovers in three speeds
  > GOVERNMENT: Jordan consolidates as deeper reforms lag
  > BANKING: Caution governs Jordanian bank lending
  > POWER & WATER: Record investment drives Jordan’s utilities market
  > ECONOMY: Gulf liquidity outpaces Syria’s financial revival
  > PROJECTS: Momentum builds for Syrian projects
  > OIL & GAS: Activity ramps up in Syria’s oil and gas sector
  > CONSTRUCTION: Prospects improve for Levant construction
  > OIL & GAS: Lebanon taps foreign players to assess resources

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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  MEED Editorial
• 
  Levant recovers in three speeds

  29 June 2026

  Commentary
  Colin Foreman
  Editor

  The Levant enters the second half of 2026 in a state of uneven recovery. Jordan, Lebanon and Syria are each navigating distinct pressures, but share a common condition: the pace of improvement is being set less by domestic policy than by the willingness of external actors to commit capital and the capacity of local systems to absorb it.

  Syria presents the most dramatic transformation. The fall of the Assad government in December 2024 unlocked a wave of Gulf and international engagement that would have been unimaginable a year earlier. The World Bank estimates the cost of reconstruction at $216bn, and commitments are accumulating. Qatar’s UCC Holding anchors two of the largest, a $7bn power programme and a $4bn rebuild of Damascus International airport. Dubai’s DP World is operational at Tartous under a 30-year concession. Abu Dhabi’s Eagle Hills has presented plans for urban developments in Damascus and Latakia with a reported budget of $50bn.

  Yet the gap between commitment and delivery is wide, and the binding constraint is financial infrastructure rather than investor appetite. Syria’s central bank sent its first Swift message in 14 years in November 2025. Visa and Mastercard processing resumed only in May. Correspondent banks remain cautious on compliance grounds. The IMF has declined to extend a lending programme, citing the need for banking reform and central-bank independence. Until the financial plumbing works at scale, the pledged billions will remain signed announcements rather than funded projects.

  Jordan’s position is more stable but equally constrained. Prime Minister Jafar Hassan has held the fiscal line since his appointment in September 2024, narrowing the deficit from 7.3% of GDP to a projected 5.4% in 2026 under the IMF programme. The $2.3bn Aqaba Port Railway, backed by the UAE, and the $5.8bn National Water Carrier project together represent the largest foreign investment in the kingdom’s history, according to Hassan. 

  But growth is projected at just 2.7% through 2026, well short of what the Economic Modernisation Vision requires, and structural reforms to the labour market have stalled.

  Lebanon, meanwhile, continues to mark time. Political leadership is in place and Block 8 offshore has attracted TotalEnergies, Eni and QatarEnergy, but the country produces virtually no hydrocarbons and its broader economic recovery remains fragile as the threat of conflict persists.

  

   

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  MEED’s July 2026 report on the Levant includes:

  > GOVERNMENT: Jordan consolidates as deeper reforms lag
  > BANKING: Caution governs Jordanian bank lending
  > POWER & WATER: Record investment drives Jordan’s utilities market
  > ECONOMY: Gulf liquidity outpaces Syria’s financial revival
  > PROJECTS: Momentum builds for Syrian projects
  > OIL & GAS: Activity ramps up in Syria’s oil and gas sector
  > CONSTRUCTION: Prospects improve for Levant construction
  > OIL & GAS: Lebanon taps foreign players to assess resources

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17479313/main.gif

  Colin Foreman
• 
  GCC presses ahead with tourism projects

  29 June 2026

  

   

  > This package also includes: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery

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  Hotel and resort construction in the GCC has proven to be more resilient than many would have predicted. According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, the value of hotel and resort construction contracts awarded in the region has so far reached $5.3bn in 2026, already surpassing the full-year total of $3.2bn recorded in 2025. 

  The 2026 figure is already the highest since 2024, when $6.1bn in contracts were awarded, and sits above every year from 2020 to 2023, despite the disruption to visitor flows since conflict broke out on 28 February. 

  Last year’s total was the weakest in the post-pandemic period, suggesting that the awards now coming through may partly reflect delayed commitments that were held back during a period of elevated construction cost inflation before being released into the market as conditions stabilised.

  

  Future pipeline

  The near-term outlook for new project commitments is uncertain, with developers and investors watching the conflict’s trajectory and its effect on visitor demand before finalising capital allocation. While there is caution, governments have signalled a firm commitment to their tourism ambitions.

  The clearest signal came in late May, when Alec Engineering & Contracting received a letter of award for the construction of the Sphere Abu Dhabi, a $1.7bn immersive entertainment venue to be built on Yas Island. That Abu Dhabi was prepared to formalise a contract of this scale during an active regional conflict carries its own significance: sovereign-backed tourism infrastructure programmes are not being paused.

  In Dubai, another major contract award is approaching. Dubai Holding is preparing to appoint a contractor for the Jumeirah Asora Bay Hotel in the La Mer area, developed alongside the Jumeirah Residences Asora Bay in partnership with Meraas. The proximity of the contract award to the conflict period indicates the same institutional logic: Dubai’s long-term tourism infrastructure programme continues to advance on its own timeline, independent of near-term demand conditions.

  Upgrade cycle

  If governments are pressing ahead with new tourism infrastructure, operators of existing properties are turning the reduced footfall to their own advantage. A wave of hotel refurbishments has gained pace in Dubai in recent months, with several properties having closed or partially closed for renovation work that, in many cases, had been planned well before the conflict began. The reduction in visitor numbers has created an opportune window to carry out disruptive works without sacrificing commercial performance.

  The most prominent examples are the Jumeirah Burj Al-Arab, which has closed for an 18-month restoration programme, and the Armani Hotel Dubai, which occupies floors within the Burj Khalifa and has also closed for a full overhaul, with a planned reopening in the last quarter of 2026.

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  Colin Foreman
• 
  AD Ports and EGA commit $23m to upgrade Khalifa port berth

  29 June 2026

  Abu Dhabi Ports Group (AD Ports) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) have signed an agreement to upgrade EGA’s dedicated berth at Khalifa Port in the UAE capital.

  The two companies will jointly invest AED84m ($23m) to upgrade the berth’s infrastructure, enabling it to receive Newcastlemax dry bulk vessels.

  These vessels can carry 15-20% more cargo than the Capesize vessels currently served at EGA’s berth.

  The upgrades are expected to improve berth productivity, operational efficiency and cargo-handling performance.

  The works are scheduled for completion by August 2028.

  Once complete, the upgraded berth is expected to support the handling of around 8 million tonnes of bulk cargo per year and increase operational flexibility, including the potential installation of additional unloader facilities.

  The programme also includes reinforcing the existing capping beam, installing new bollards and fenders, extending crane beams and foundations, adding utility connections and carrying out dredging works.

  The agreement between AD Ports and EGA follows closely on the heels of EGA commissioning the UAE’s largest aluminium recycling plant next to its existing smelter in Al-Taweelah, Abu Dhabi.

  The Al-Taweelah recycling plant has a production capacity of 185,000 tonnes a year (t/y) and houses the largest furnace in the UAE, with a melt rate of more than 17 tonnes an hour. The recycling unit sits alongside EGA’s main alumina refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of more than 2 million t/y.

  EGA is jointly owned by the governments of Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

  The major capital deployment follows a period of significant financial growth and international expansion for AD Ports, which is 75.42% owned by sovereign wealth fund ADQ. AD Ports reported record results for 2025, with revenue rising 20% year-on-year to AED20.77bn ($5.66bn) and net profit increasing 16% to AED2.07bn.

  According to its 2025 annual report, the group plans to invest AED2.45bn in port infrastructure development during 2026 alone, alongside AED1.3bn for liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas storage terminals between 2026 and 2028. To fund higher-return projects and optimise its balance sheet, AD Ports launched an asset monetisation programme in late 2025 targeting the recycling of AED4.6bn of capital.

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  Yasir Iqbal
• 
  Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery

  29 June 2026

  

   

  > This package also includes: GCC presses ahead with tourism projects

  ---

  Dubai’s tourism sector was in a position of strength when the regional conflict began on 28 February. 

  Full-year figures published by the Dubai Department of Economy & Tourism (DET) in February confirmed that the emirate welcomed 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025, a 5% increase on the 18.72 million recorded in 2024, and a third consecutive year of record-setting arrivals. The city received more than 2 million visitors in a single calendar month when December 2025 closed with 2.04 million arrivals, 6% ahead of the same period in 2024.

  Average hotel occupancy in Dubai’s 827 properties reached 80.7% in 2025, up from 78.2% in 2024. Revenue per available room rose 11% year-on-year to AED467 ($127), while the average daily rate increased 8% to AED579 ($158). 

  By the end of December, the city’s hotel room inventory stood at 154,264, ahead of cities including Bangkok, New York, Paris and Singapore.

  Western Europe remained the largest source market, contributing 4.1 million arrivals and accounting for 21% of total visitors, while the GCC and Middle East and North Africa regions together represented 26% , with 2.99 million and 2.17 million arrivals, respectively. South Asia, the CIS and Eastern Europe each contributed 2.89 million visitors.

  The regional context was similarly buoyant. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council’s (WTTC) 2026 Economic Impact Research, Middle East travel and tourism GDP expanded 5.3% in 2025, outpacing the global sector average of 4.1%. 

  The UAE’s travel and tourism sector reached $68.5bn in GDP contribution in 2025, with international visitor spending of $56.9bn. Pre-conflict, WTTC had forecast $207bn in international visitor spending across the Middle East for 2026.

  Sudden shock

  The outbreak of conflict on 28 February produced a swift and serious impact across the regional tourism ecosystem. Within days, the WTTC estimated losses of at least $600m a day in international visitor spending across the Middle East, as air travel was disrupted, traveller confidence weakened and regional connectivity fractured. 

  The major Gulf aviation hubs including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain, which together process about 526,000 passengers daily, experienced closures and operational disruption. On the day the conflict began, the EU Aviation Safety Agency issued a bulletin on the dangers of flying in the airspace of 11 countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. 

  The data for the first quarter of 2026 reflects the scale of the disruption. According to UN Tourism’s latest World Tourism Barometer, international arrivals across the Middle East fell 14% in the first quarter of 2026, with hotel occupancy in the region declining sharply to 48% in March from 75% in January, against a global average of 64%. 

  International air traffic among Middle Eastern carriers fell 61% in March, measured in revenue passenger-kilometres, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata), dragging overall global international traffic into modest contraction for the month.

  The conflict also introduced structural complications that extended beyond the immediate decline in arrivals. Several major source markets, including the UK, issued advisories against all but essential travel to the UAE. The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) guidance cited the risk of renewed strikes on civilian infrastructure, including ports, hotels, roads and airports, and advised residents to consider departing if their presence was not essential. 

  The divergence from Dubai’s own official position, which characterised the emirate as stable and operationally normal, created a coverage gap that complicated conventional travel insurance provision and suppressed bookings from key markets.

  On 18 June, the UK updated its position, removing the advisory against all but essential travel to the UAE and noting that commercial flight routes to depart the region remain available. The change marks a significant shift in the formal risk landscape for one of Dubai’s most important source markets, removing a barrier that had complicated both insurance provision and leisure booking decisions across the UK market for nearly four months.

  Emirates and Etihad Airways both moved to address the insurance gap directly ahead of the FCDO change. On 17 June, Emirates launched a comprehensive travel cover product developed in partnership with insurance provider Travel Guard, offering medical cover for conflict-related incidents, trip cancellation cover, compensation for baggage delay or loss, and unlimited medical expense and emergency evacuation cover worldwide. The product is available across 27 markets.

  Emirates also committed to rebooking disrupted customers at no additional cost where flights have been cancelled due to conflict-related disruption, including itineraries connecting on other carriers.

  

  Arrivals data

  Data from UK-based analytics firm GlobalData illustrates both the scale of the expected contraction and the strength of the projected recovery. UAE international arrivals, which reached approximately 30 million in 2025, are forecast to fall to about 26.4 million in 2026 – a decline of roughly 12% – before rebounding sharply to 32.1 million in 2027. 

  GlobalData’s projections then show continued growth to about 33.5 million in 2028, 35.1 million in 2029 and 36.6 million by 2030. 

  On that trajectory, arrivals would exceed pre-conflict levels within a single year of recovery and surpass 2025 figures by more than 7% in 2027 alone.

  The GlobalData numbers place the 2026 contraction in a longer historical context. UAE arrivals grew almost uninterrupted from 8.4 million in 2009 to 25.6 million in 2019, before collapsing to 8.4 million in 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsequent recovery was among the fastest recorded for any major destination: arrivals reached 22 million in 2022, crossed 26.3 million in 2023 and climbed to 28.7 million in 2024 before the 2025 peak. 

  That precedent – a two-thirds collapse followed by full recovery within three years – underpins the confidence embedded in GlobalData’s post-conflict forecast, which projects a return to growth momentum by 2027 and a trajectory that would deliver 36.6 million arrivals by 2030.

  The near-term contraction nevertheless remains substantial. A decline from approximately 30 million to 26.4 million in a single year represents the sharpest drop in UAE arrivals outside the pandemic, and it comes at a point when the sector had been tracking well ahead of pre-pandemic levels.

  Past experience

  Historical precedent from comparable disruptions points to a consistent pattern: recovery shape is determined less by the severity of the initial decline than by the duration of the disrupting event and the speed at which the perception of the source market resets.

  Single-event incidents with clear endpoints and no sustained security overhang have historically produced the fastest recoveries, with arrivals returning to trend within 12 months. Sustained conflicts or events that trigger prolonged travel advisory regimes produce more extended recovery arcs, with source market confidence rather than operational conditions defining the timeline. 

  The Egypt Metrojet bombing in 2015 remains the most instructive cautionary example for the Gulf: Russian airspace restrictions imposed after the incident kept a major source market out of the Egyptian market for more than five years, with arrivals recovery lagging the resolution of the underlying security concern by a significant margin.

  The UAE’s own Covid recovery offers a relevant local reference point. The GlobalData numbers show arrivals collapsed from 25.6 million in 2019 to 8.4 million in 2020, before recovering to 21.9 million in 2022 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 2023. The post-conflict recovery forecast of a bounce back to above 2025 levels by 2027 is less aggressive than the post-Covid rebound, reflecting both the more moderate scale of the 2026 contraction and the more complex advisory and perception dynamics involved in a conflict resolution scenario.

  The DET’s response is structured around three priorities: operational continuity, sector support and market confidence. The government announced a AED2.5bn ($612.7m) support package targeting the tourism, hospitality and entertainment sectors, structured to protect business continuity, preserve employment and maintain visitor experience standards. Dubai is doing all it can, but much depends on how quickly perceptions shift.

  Pilgrimages drive Saudi tourism

  More than 1.7 million pilgrims performed Hajj in 2026, according to official data published by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics, underscoring the continued centrality of religious tourism to the kingdom’s visitor economy.

  The total of 1,707,301 pilgrims comprised 1,546,655 from outside the kingdom and 160,646 internal pilgrims, which includes Saudi citizens and residents. 

  The vast majority of international pilgrims arrived by air, with 1,485,729 using this mode of transport. A further 54,429 arrived overland and 6,497 by sea. Pilgrims represented 165 nationalities, reflecting the global reach of the event.

  The scale of the logistical operation accompanying Hajj is equally significant. Supporting the pilgrimage required 441,049 workers and 26,701 volunteers. Saudi Arabia’s pre-clearance programme, which processes travel documentation at the point of departure to streamline entry to the kingdom for participants from select countries, was used by 388,694 pilgrims.

  Hajj is a structural pillar of Saudi religious tourism, which alongside Umrah, draws tens of millions of visitors to Mecca and Medina each year. The sector sits at the core of Vision 2030’s tourism diversification strategy, which targets 150 million visits a year by the end of the decade. 

  Continued investment in transport infrastructure, including the expanded King Abdulaziz International airport and Haramain high-speed railway capacity, will help Riyadh achieve this target.

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  Colin Foreman