meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Lebanon economic recovery postponed

4 June 2024

 

The visit to Lebanon by the IMF in May reveals a stark picture of an economy now in its fifth year of intense turmoil following its October 2019 exchange rate collapse, and one which now faces significant additional headwinds.

The IMF’s end-of-mission statement identified a lack of action on economic reforms as exerting a heavy economic toll, while flagging negative spillovers from fighting on the country’s southern border as an exacerbating factor for the already dire economic and social situation.

Yet, despite this apparent dismal assessment, Lebanon can legitimately claim to have turned a corner last year.

Implementing monetary and fiscal reforms has seen the phasing out of monetary financing, the termination of the electronic foreign exchange platform, tighter fiscal policy, and steps towards the unification of exchange rates.

These measures have helped contain exchange rate depreciation, stabilise the money supply and reduce inflationary pressure, the IMF said.

Nassib Ghobril, chief economist at Beirut-based Byblos Bank, agrees. “Last year was a very good year for Lebanon, the first year where the economy was on track to post a positive growth rate since 2017,” he says.

After the first nine months of 2023, Ghobril’s forecast for real GDP growth was 2%, driven by stellar tourism activity that so far that year had produced knock-on benefits for 14 sub-sectors, in addition to improved activity in the wider industrial, agricultural and services sectors.

“And then 7 October and 8 October happened, and that created a shock that put a hold on this momentum — and that’s continuing,” he says.

Contingent growth

Lebanon’s economic outlook now hinges largely on the outcome of the conflict in Gaza and the related violence between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defence Forces, which has forced widespread displacement of the southern population, besides disrupting agriculture and tourism.

Looking ahead, Ghobril predicts a continuation of the current status quo, which would result in a real GDP contraction of 0.5-1% in 2024, at 40% probability. If the conflict expands – also a 40% probability – then it could realise a more serious contraction of 15-20%.

On the other hand, says Ghobril, in a ceasefire scenario, which he puts at 20% probability, “the sooner it happens, we would have a rebound in growth based on the positive shock, the reconstruction of the south and better visibility”.

Tourism revival, important to Lebanon as a hard currency generator, is highly contingent on a stable security situation, even beyond the southern areas most impacted by the fighting.

Minister of Economy and Trade Amin Salam warned in February that it was unclear if visitors from the Lebanese diaspora and elsewhere, who injected about $5-7bn into the economy last summer, would come to the country this season. In Q1 2024, total passenger numbers at Beirut International airport decreased by 6.7% in year-on-year terms to 1.27 million, according to Banque Audi figures.

The conflict’s direct impact on the south has been stark. According to Banque Audi, more than 6,000 acres of forest and agricultural land have been damaged, up to 2,100 acres completely burned, and more than 60,000 olive trees destroyed.

Meanwhile, an estimated 93,000 people have been internally displaced, contributing to an estimated 75% decline in economic activity in the south. The sense that the Israel-Hamas war has stunted Lebanon’s recovery is hard to avoid, rolling back the progress seen in 2023.

Fiscal stabilisation

The IMF has nevertheless lauded the government’s measures to boost revenue collection from VAT and customs, which it said helped close the fiscal deficit to zero last year.

“Looking ahead, we anticipate the fiscal balance to remain close to zero in 2024, on limited financing options and improved revenue collection permitted by the exchange rate adjustment on custom duties and VAT. CPI inflation is expected to stabilise on lower unsterilised interventions of Banque du Liban,” says Thomas Garreau, an analyst at Fitch Ratings.

Balancing current spending looked to be within reach. The government’s budgeted figures for 2024 envisage public spending amounting to $3.4bn, matched by public revenues of $3.4bn, despite an increase in public sector wages of $40m a month.

Exchange rate stabilisation is a clear win for Lebanon. The pound has been stable at £Leb89,500 to the dollar since the end of July 2023 despite multiple security incidents not related to the conflict in the south of the country.

“That’s still ongoing because the central bank managed last year to sterilise liquidity and Lebanese pounds from the market to reduce the differential between the quasi-official exchange rate of the central bank and the parallel market rate, and to stop the speculation on the currency. So it managed to stop the depreciation of the currency,” says Ghobril.

Foreign exchange reserves, which eroded heavily in the post-2019 crisis period, appear to have steadied. The liquid foreign assets of the central Banque du Liban grew by $382m in Q1 2014, reaching $9.6bn.

As Banque Audi notes, the cumulative growth of $1bn in the central bank’s liquid foreign assets since the end of July 2023 is mostly linked to its refraining from any government finance.

Yet the more lasting changes needed to shift the dial on Lebanon’s economic narrative remain elusive.

Bank deposits are frozen, notes the IMF, and the banking sector is unable to provide credit to the economy, as the government and parliament have been unable to find a solution to the sector’s crisis.

Addressing the banks’ losses while protecting depositors is seen as indispensable to economic recovery.

It does not help that the country has been without a president since October 2022, leaving caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati without a full mandate to undertake reforms.

This matters because banking system recovery hinges on political will to implement reforms. Yet the vacuum at the presidential palace leaves little prospect of imminent progress on this front.

“Despite some politicians’ comments, I do not see prospects of an end to the political deadlock as long as the war is ongoing in the south. And even if it suddenly stopped, you would need several months for an overall settlement to materialise on the domestic political front,” says Ghobirl.

The present situation leaves Lebanon politically and economically hobbled, with fears of worse to come due to external events beyond its control.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11853141/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Accor and Al-Qimmah plan 4,000 Saudi rooms

    27 August 2026

    France's hotel operator Accor has expanded its partnership with local firm Al Qimmah Hospitality, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's BinDawood Investment Company, to develop more than 4,000 hotel rooms in the kingdom.

    The plan focuses on building a portfolio in Mecca and Medina.

    The expanded agreement was announced in Paris during the French-Saudi Investment Roundtable. It follows a master development agreement signed in 2025. The partnership now covers five hotels in Jeddah, Mecca and Medina across the premium, midscale and economy segments.

    One of the planned developments is an 850-room Novotel in Mecca, which is due to open in 2030. The agreement also covers the Mercure Makkah Shesha, ibis Styles Makkah Mesfalah, Movenpick Madinah and Swissotel Jeddah properties.

    The partnership will also support job creation and Saudi workforce development through Tamayyaz by Accor, the group's national talent programme run with the Saudi Ministry of Tourism. The programme aims to develop and hire more than 3,000 Saudi nationals by 2030.

    Accor has operated in Saudi Arabia for more than three decades and runs 48 hotels with more than 21,600 rooms nationwide. Its pipeline includes a further 47 properties comprising more than 11,400 rooms.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19051854/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Jeddah tenders stormwater drainage contracts

    27 August 2026

    Jeddah Municipality has invited contractors to bid for a contract covering the construction of a rainwater drainage network for the Prince Fawaz neighbourhood.

    The project aims to collect and convey rainwater away from residential streets and low-lying areas. It is valued at $60m and intended to reduce flooding risks during heavy rainfall.

    The scope includes manholes, stormwater catch basins and connections to existing manholes as well as the restoration of road surfaces.

    The bid submission deadline is 12 October.

    The municipality is also progressing with a second stormwater drainage project for the first package of Zone (BC), Old Zahraa in Jeddah Governorate, with bids due on 2 September. The project is valued at about $30m.

    The two projects are part of the muncipality's wider drainage programme including the flagship King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road tunnel project,

    MEED previously reported that Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company had been selected for phases one and two of the project, each valued at about $175m, covering the construction of large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels.

    It is understood an official agreement has still yet to be signed.

    In June, MEED reported that local contractor Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (AWPT) had signed two contracts with Jeddah Municipality to operate and maintain stormwater and surface water drainage networks across the city.

    The contracts have a combined value of SR202.06m ($53.9m), and each will run for five years.

    The first contract, valued at SR108.46m ($28.9m), covers the operation and cleaning of stormwater and surface water networks in the South and Al-Malisa sub-municipalities.

    The second contract, worth SR93.59m ($25m), covers similar services for the Airport Sub-Municipality.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19039514/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saur and Nesma sign water infrastructure deal

    26 August 2026

    French firm Saur and local contractor Nesma & Partners have signed a deal to jointly "pursue the design and construction" of two recycled water plants in Riyadh.

    The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed during the French-Saudi Investment Roundtable Meeting in Paris on 24 August.

    It builds on an earlier agreement by the companies last September focusing on developing desalination and sewage treatment plants aceross the kingdom including project development, engineering, procurement, construction (EPC) and long-term operations and maintenance (O&M).

    At the time, the companies agreed to "target industrial water treatment through concession and operations contracts," extending the agreement beyond municipal water infrastructure.

    The latest agreement appears to mark a move from the broader partnership towards specific project opportunies in the Riyadh market. Details of the projects were not disclosed.

    In May, MEED exclusively reported that a consortium including Saur, Nesma and another local firm Al-Bawani was preparing to bid for the Riyadh East Independent Sewage Treatment Plant (ISTP) project, of which, the submission deadline was recently extended to 29 September.

    There are almost $2.5bn worth of water treatment projects at the pre-execution stage in Saudi Arabia, according to regional tracker MEED Projects.

    The French-Saudi Investment roundtable meeting was organised as part of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman’s state visit to France.

    Saudi Aramco also announced agreements and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with French companies, worth a potential combined value of more than $3.7bn.

    Among the other agreements signed during the conference was a cooperation agreement between Saudi Energy and French public investment bank Bpifrance, valued at up to $3bn, to support financing for projects to develop and expand Saudi Arabia’s power grid.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19011713/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Technip Energies secures role in Umm Shaif Gas Cap project

    26 August 2026

    France-based Technip Energies has secured a contract to provide detailed engineering services on a key offshore package part of the Umm Shaif integrated gas cap and surface pressure boosting project of Adnoc Offshore.

    The detailed engineering services deal was awarded as a sub-contract to Technip Energies by India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH), in its capacity as the main contractor on the package 1 of the Umm Shaif gas cap project.

    MEED previously reported about the offshore business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Offshore) awarding the main EPC contract for package 1 to a consortium of L&TEH and Saudi Arabia/UAE-based Lamprell.

    Both L&TEH and Lamprell have confirmed their respective contract awards.

    Under the detailed engineering contract, Technip Energies, in its statement on 26 August, said it “will draw on its strong local engineering capabilities and extensive experience with complex, large-scale offshore projects in the Middle East.”

    In July, Adnoc and its foreign partners announced a $6.2bn final investment decision (FID) for their project to produce up to 600 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of natural gas by developing the Umm Shaif Gas Cap in Abu Dhabi.

    The Umm Shaif Gas Cap reserve is located within the offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, which is operated by Adnoc as the majority stakeholder. The other stakeholders in the concession are Italy’s Eni, France’s TotalEnergies and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

    Adnoc said the FID includes three EPC packages totalling $5.1bn for large-scale offshore infrastructure, awarded to consortiums comprising major UAE and international contractors. The company did not disclose the contractors or the scope of work.

    MEED reported in May that the following contractors had emerged as frontrunners for the two offshore packages and one onshore package of the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project:

    • First offshore package – fabrication of a 30,000-tonne gas compression system: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • Second offshore package – fabrication of another 30,000-tonne gas compression system: McDermott (US)
    • Onshore package – EPC of gas inlet and processing systems on Das Island: China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)

    McDermott recently confirmed its contract award for package 2, describing the order as “mega”, a term the company uses for jobs valued above $1bn.

    In its 21 July statement, Adnoc added that, as part of the FID, it has also awarded a $365m contract to its subsidiary Adnoc Drilling for a 14-well drilling and integrated drilling services scope, to be delivered over 18 months using three existing rigs.

    “The FID for Umm Shaif Gas Cap is the latest milestone in the company’s gas growth strategy and will unlock more than 600 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas and associated gas liquids, equivalent to almost 10% of the UAE’s current daily gas consumption. The investment will reinforce the UAE’s energy security and its role as a reliable global energy supplier,” Adnoc said.

    Production from the development is expected by 2030, the Abu Dhabi energy giant said.

    “The UAE holds the seventh-largest gas reserves in the world. As global demand for reliable, lower-carbon energy continues to grow, Adnoc is unlocking more of the nation’s gas resources and expanding its liquefied natural gas (LNG) portfolio to meet the needs of its domestic and international customers and power industrial and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure growth,” it added.

    Umm Shaif Gas Cap project

    Adnoc Offshore, the offshore oil and gas business of Adnoc Group, is the operator of the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project, MEED has reported.

    The primary objective is to increase gas production by 550 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) and raise associated condensate output by 50,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    Adnoc Offshore intends to feed about 520 million cf/d of the additional produced gas into Adnoc Group’s sales gas grid.

    Adnoc Offshore is understood to have issued the main EPC tender for the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project in the first quarter of 2025.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the three EPC packages by the 30 October deadline last year, while commercial bids were submitted by the 2 February deadline.

    The following contractors are among those understood to be bidding for the three EPC packages, according to sources:

    Offshore package 1:

    • Saipem (Italy) / Seatrium (Singapore)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    Offshore package 2:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (COOEC)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    Onshore package:

    • Archirodon (Greece)
    • China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)
    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi; Egypt)
    • Galfar Emirates (UAE branch of Oman’s Galfar Engineering & Construction)
    • Target Engineering Construction Company (UAE)

    Australian firm Worley has performed front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the project.

    Umm Shaif gas production

    Adnoc Offshore operates the Umm Shaif hydrocarbons development, which is located 150 kilometres (km) northwest of the city of Abu Dhabi. The field is located in Abu Dhabi’s offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, previously operated by former Adnoc Group companies Adma-Opco and Zadco.

    In March and April 2018, Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) awarded a 10% stake in the Umm Shaif and Nasr offshore block to Eni, 20% to TotalEnergies and 10% to CNPC. Adnoc Group retained the majority 60% interest. The operators produce a total of about 460,000 b/d of oil from the Umm Shaif and Nasr block.

    Gas is produced from the Umm Shaif Khuff and Uweinat reservoirs, as well as from the Arab C and Arab D Early Production Scheme 2. The Umm Shaif Khuff reservoir is a formation that consists of dry gas volumetric reservoirs located in the Umm Shaif field.

    Khuff reservoirs have been in production in Abu Dhabi since August 1989. Umm Shaif Khuff gas is currently produced from 28 active wells within the Umm Shaif field. A majority of these wells supply gas to Adnoc Group subsidiaries Adnoc LNG and Adnoc Gas Processing, with the rest supporting oil reservoirs at the Umm Shaif field through gas injection.

    The Umm Shaif Super Complex (USSC) processes and transports oil, condensates and natural gas in separate pipelines to Das Island for further processing and export. The condensates collected from the USSC are transported to Das Island through an 18-inch pipeline stretching 34.4km, or are spiked into the 36-inch Adnoc main oil line.

    The gas collected from the USSC is transported to Das Island through two 46-inch pipelines, which also run 34.4km.

    Pressure at the Umm Shaif Khuff gas reservoirs will start to decline by the end of 2028. The flowing wellhead pressures at some of the Khuff gas wellhead towers are likely to reduce, so boosting well deliverability and increasing the flowrates is necessary.

    Therefore, new Khuff surface pressure boosting facilities are required to maintain the plateau – with a goal of achieving a 90% gas recovery factor – and increase production beyond the end of the plateau by lowering pressure at the Khuff reservoirs.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19009217/main5444.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Wabag confirms $372m Kuwait desalination contract

    26 August 2026

    India's VA Tech Wabag has confirmed it has signed a contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    Wabag confirmed the signing in a Regulation 30 filing on 25 August to the National Stock Exchange of India and BSE Limited.

    The contract is valued at KD114.28m ($372m) and will be delivered by a Wabag-led unincorporated joint venture with Kuwait’s Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco).

    In April, MEED reported that Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders had approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award the contract to the joint venture.

    It is understood that the decision then had to go through final approval from the Audit Bureau

    The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) equivalent to about 272 million litres a day.

    It will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems. On-site solar photovoltaic systems will also provide part of the plant’s energy requirements.

    According to the filing, construction is scheduled to take 36 months, followed by a five-year operation and maintenance period.

    The Doha SWRO desalination plant is part of Kuwait’s broader programme to expand water production capacity and reduce reliance on thermal desalination methods.

    As reported by MEED, the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest of three bids for the project in August 2025.

    In April 2025, MEED reported that Kuwait had retendered the contract for the facility after the ministry cancelled the initial tender in June 2024.

    The Ministry of Electricity & Water awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction – now known as Doosan Enerbility – a $422m contract in May 2016 to build the 60 MIGD Doha 1 SWRO plant.

    The contract marks Wabag's first project in Kuwait. In June, the contractor also won its first major contract in the UAE for the Ajman sewage biorefinery plant phase 3 project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19004753/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall