meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Lebanon economic recovery postponed

4 June 2024

 

The visit to Lebanon by the IMF in May reveals a stark picture of an economy now in its fifth year of intense turmoil following its October 2019 exchange rate collapse, and one which now faces significant additional headwinds.

The IMF’s end-of-mission statement identified a lack of action on economic reforms as exerting a heavy economic toll, while flagging negative spillovers from fighting on the country’s southern border as an exacerbating factor for the already dire economic and social situation.

Yet, despite this apparent dismal assessment, Lebanon can legitimately claim to have turned a corner last year.

Implementing monetary and fiscal reforms has seen the phasing out of monetary financing, the termination of the electronic foreign exchange platform, tighter fiscal policy, and steps towards the unification of exchange rates.

These measures have helped contain exchange rate depreciation, stabilise the money supply and reduce inflationary pressure, the IMF said.

Nassib Ghobril, chief economist at Beirut-based Byblos Bank, agrees. “Last year was a very good year for Lebanon, the first year where the economy was on track to post a positive growth rate since 2017,” he says.

After the first nine months of 2023, Ghobril’s forecast for real GDP growth was 2%, driven by stellar tourism activity that so far that year had produced knock-on benefits for 14 sub-sectors, in addition to improved activity in the wider industrial, agricultural and services sectors.

“And then 7 October and 8 October happened, and that created a shock that put a hold on this momentum — and that’s continuing,” he says.

Contingent growth

Lebanon’s economic outlook now hinges largely on the outcome of the conflict in Gaza and the related violence between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defence Forces, which has forced widespread displacement of the southern population, besides disrupting agriculture and tourism.

Looking ahead, Ghobril predicts a continuation of the current status quo, which would result in a real GDP contraction of 0.5-1% in 2024, at 40% probability. If the conflict expands – also a 40% probability – then it could realise a more serious contraction of 15-20%.

On the other hand, says Ghobril, in a ceasefire scenario, which he puts at 20% probability, “the sooner it happens, we would have a rebound in growth based on the positive shock, the reconstruction of the south and better visibility”.

Tourism revival, important to Lebanon as a hard currency generator, is highly contingent on a stable security situation, even beyond the southern areas most impacted by the fighting.

Minister of Economy and Trade Amin Salam warned in February that it was unclear if visitors from the Lebanese diaspora and elsewhere, who injected about $5-7bn into the economy last summer, would come to the country this season. In Q1 2024, total passenger numbers at Beirut International airport decreased by 6.7% in year-on-year terms to 1.27 million, according to Banque Audi figures.

The conflict’s direct impact on the south has been stark. According to Banque Audi, more than 6,000 acres of forest and agricultural land have been damaged, up to 2,100 acres completely burned, and more than 60,000 olive trees destroyed.

Meanwhile, an estimated 93,000 people have been internally displaced, contributing to an estimated 75% decline in economic activity in the south. The sense that the Israel-Hamas war has stunted Lebanon’s recovery is hard to avoid, rolling back the progress seen in 2023.

Fiscal stabilisation

The IMF has nevertheless lauded the government’s measures to boost revenue collection from VAT and customs, which it said helped close the fiscal deficit to zero last year.

“Looking ahead, we anticipate the fiscal balance to remain close to zero in 2024, on limited financing options and improved revenue collection permitted by the exchange rate adjustment on custom duties and VAT. CPI inflation is expected to stabilise on lower unsterilised interventions of Banque du Liban,” says Thomas Garreau, an analyst at Fitch Ratings.

Balancing current spending looked to be within reach. The government’s budgeted figures for 2024 envisage public spending amounting to $3.4bn, matched by public revenues of $3.4bn, despite an increase in public sector wages of $40m a month.

Exchange rate stabilisation is a clear win for Lebanon. The pound has been stable at £Leb89,500 to the dollar since the end of July 2023 despite multiple security incidents not related to the conflict in the south of the country.

“That’s still ongoing because the central bank managed last year to sterilise liquidity and Lebanese pounds from the market to reduce the differential between the quasi-official exchange rate of the central bank and the parallel market rate, and to stop the speculation on the currency. So it managed to stop the depreciation of the currency,” says Ghobril.

Foreign exchange reserves, which eroded heavily in the post-2019 crisis period, appear to have steadied. The liquid foreign assets of the central Banque du Liban grew by $382m in Q1 2014, reaching $9.6bn.

As Banque Audi notes, the cumulative growth of $1bn in the central bank’s liquid foreign assets since the end of July 2023 is mostly linked to its refraining from any government finance.

Yet the more lasting changes needed to shift the dial on Lebanon’s economic narrative remain elusive.

Bank deposits are frozen, notes the IMF, and the banking sector is unable to provide credit to the economy, as the government and parliament have been unable to find a solution to the sector’s crisis.

Addressing the banks’ losses while protecting depositors is seen as indispensable to economic recovery.

It does not help that the country has been without a president since October 2022, leaving caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati without a full mandate to undertake reforms.

This matters because banking system recovery hinges on political will to implement reforms. Yet the vacuum at the presidential palace leaves little prospect of imminent progress on this front.

“Despite some politicians’ comments, I do not see prospects of an end to the political deadlock as long as the war is ongoing in the south. And even if it suddenly stopped, you would need several months for an overall settlement to materialise on the domestic political front,” says Ghobirl.

The present situation leaves Lebanon politically and economically hobbled, with fears of worse to come due to external events beyond its control.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11853141/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Read the May 2026 MEED Business Review

    30 April 2026

    Download / Subscribe / 14-day trial access

    The regional war – and resulting disruption to oil and gas shipping – has triggered a major global energy security shock that is likely to recalibrate long-term decisions on how energy is produced and consumed.

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is exposing the vulnerability of Middle East supply chains and pushing import-dependent countries to strengthen energy security by expanding domestic fossil fuels, speeding up nuclear projects, and investing in renewables and storage.

    At the same time, higher prices are encouraging producers unencumbered by reliance on the Strait to boost output.

    Like the oil shocks of the 1970s, the conflict is likely to have lasting effects, reshaping energy policies and partnerships and accelerating diversification away from existing arrangements. Read more here. 

    The conflict is also undermining the business case for Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, as prices rise, demand drops and confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers is eroded. 

    May’s market focus is on the UAE, where disruption from the Iran war has challenged every assumption behind the country’s non-oil model.

    This edition also includes our industry report on Gulf capital markets, as well as analysis on the region’s initial public offering market.

    In the latest issue, we explore why regional banks are feeling the strain despite strong buffers; consider why force majeure offers no shield against construction breaches; examine the Public Investment Fund’s 2026-30 strategy and talk to Estelle Brachlianoff, CEO of water infrastructure operator Veolia.   

    We hope our valued subscribers enjoy the May 2026 issue of MEED Business Review. 

     

    Must-read sections in the May 2026 issue of MEED Business Review include:

    > AGENDA: War in the Middle East recalibrates global energy markets

    > REGIONAL LNG: War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

    INDUSTRY REPORT:
    Gulf capital markets
    > Damage avoidance frames debt issuance
    > Regional IPO market dries up amid war

    > INTERVIEW: Desalination holds steady amid tensions, says Veolia CEO

    > LEGAL: Force majeure will not cure pre-existing construction industry breaches  

    > BANKS: GCC banks to feel the strain despite strong buffers

    > PIF STRATEGY: Public Investment Fund approves 2026-30 strategy

    > UAE MARKET FOCUS: 
    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain
    > DATABANK: UAE GDP projection corrects on conflict

    > MEED COMMENTS: 
    >     War takes a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector
    > Libya budget approval could lead to surge in oil and gas projects
    > Masdar’s move abroad will not be the last
    > Saudi Landbridge finds its moment in Gulf turmoil

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf index plateaus despite ceasefire

    > MARCH 2026 CONTRACTS: Middle East contract awards

    > ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects

    > OPINION: The road to hell is paved with gold

    > BUSINESS OUTLOOK: Finance, oil and gas, construction, power and water contracts

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16623768/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Algeria extends bid deadline for stalled power plant

    30 April 2026

    Algeria’s state-owned electricity and gas utility Sonelgaz has extended a deadline for contractors to submit expressions of interest for the construction of the 1.2GW Djelfa combined-cycle power plant.

    The project is being procured through Sonelgaz’s power generation subsidiary, Societe Algerienne de l’Electricite et du Gaz – Production de l’Electricite (SPE).

    In March, MEED reported that the utility was seeking contractors to complete works at the existing Djelfa plant, including the remaining construction, the supply of missing equipment and the assessment of installed equipment.

    The original bid submission deadline for prequalification was 7 April. The new deadline is 5 May.

    The tender is open to both local and international companies, and will be conducted in three phases: prequalification, preliminary technical assessment, and final technical and financial submission.

    The retender follows earlier plans to complete the project through a Chinese consortium comprising China Energy Engineering Group Company, Northwest Electric Power Design Institute and Anhui Electric Power Construction Company.

    This proposal was made after Spanish contractor Duro Felguera halted work on the project in June 2024. 

    According to MEED Projects, construction works had progressed to 72% at the time of the suspension.

    It is understood that an agreement in principle was then reached to transfer the remaining works to the Chinese group after the Spanish firm entered a pre-bankruptcy phase in December 2024.

    A company statement at the time said: “The Chinese group is committed to completing the plant construction, with commissioning scheduled to start in the ninth month following the final agreement.”

    However, in October 2025, it was revealed that the attempt to transfer the project to a consortium of Chinese companies had failed, leaving the Spanish firm with an official demand to pay €413m in compensation to Sonelgaz.

    This was revealed via a lengthy report containing a restructuring plan sent by Duro Felguera to creditors in Spain and the Madrid Financial Markets Authority.

    Gas-fired power plants

    Located in Djelfa province, the project remains a key part of Algeria’s power generation expansion plans.

    Sonelgaz has been seeking contractors to build a separate 1.2GW combined-cycle gas-fired power plant in Aldrar since last April.

    The most recent deadline extension was 29 April.

    According to recent reports, Algeria has also begun construction of a power generation plant in El-Aouinet, with a total installed capacity of 1,406MW.

    The combined-cycle gas turbine plant is being developed in partnership with China National Electric Engineering Company.

    Gas-fired combined-cycle plants continue to account for the majority of Algeria’s electricity generation capacity. Data from MEED Projects indicates that more than 5,000MW of oil- and gas-fired power capacity is currently in the execution phase.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16623787/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa announces new record for power reliability

    30 April 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has announced that it set a new world record for the lowest electricity customer minutes lost (CML), at 0.82 minutes a year in 2025.

    The figure is equivalent to about 49 seconds of annual outage per customer. It improves on the utility’s previous record of 0.94 minutes in 2024, a reduction of around 13%.

    Dewa said it has reduced CML in Dubai from 6.88 minutes a year in 2012 to 0.82 minutes in 2025, significantly lower than the average of about 15 minutes recorded by leading electricity utilities in the European Union.

    The smart grid is a central component of Dewa’s strategy to improve reliability and efficiency. The programme is being implemented with total investments of AED7bn up to 2035.

    One of the key initiatives of the programme is the Automatic Smart Grid Restoration System, which enables remote, round-the-clock control and monitoring.

    Dewa currently has tenders out for several power and water infrastructure projects in the emirate. These include at least four Glass Reinforced Epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipeline projects.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Dewa awarded $1.1bn-worth of new power and water contracts in 2025. Contract awards had previously reached $2.6bn in 2024, and $4bn in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16623721/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Riyadh tenders PMC deal for major sports arena

    30 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Sports Boulevard Foundation has tendered a contract inviting firms to bid for project management consultancy (PMC) services for the Global Sports Tower in the Athletics District of the Sports Boulevard development in Riyadh.

    The tender was issued on 8 April, with a bid submission deadline of 10 May.

    The 130-metre-tall Global Sports Tower will cover an area of 84,000 square metres and will include more than 30 sports facilities. The tower will feature the world’s tallest indoor climbing wall at 98 metres and a 250-metre running track.

    Earlier this week, MEED reported that the Sports Boulevard Foundation is preparing to award the main construction contract for the Global Sports Tower. MEED understands that bid evaluation has reached an advanced stage and the contract is likely to be awarded by the end of May.

    MEED reported in May last year that design work on the tower had been completed. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud approved the designs in 2024.

    The Sports Boulevard development runs across Riyadh from east to west and, once complete, is set to be the world’s longest park spanning more than 135 kilometres.

    The development will be spread across several districts, including Wadi Hanifah, Arts, Urban Wadi, Entertainment, Athletics and Eco, as well as Sands Sports Park.

    The large-scale project aims to transform central Riyadh – currently dominated by major highways – into a recreational corridor.

    Sports Boulevard, which will feature 4.4 million sq m of public realm and landmark buildings, will also be home to the Centre for Cinematic Arts and a 2,000-seat amphitheatre.

    The development will provide more than 2.3 million sq m of mixed-use commercial, residential, and retail assets, along with sports facilities around the park, known as Linear Park.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16622287/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors submit Saudi Arabia phosphate rail track bids

    30 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) received bids from contractors on 27 April for a multibillion-riyal tender to double the tracks on the existing phosphate transport railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The tender – covering the second section of the track-doubling works and spanning more than 150 kilometres (km) – was issued on 9 February.

    This follows SAR receiving bids on 1 February for the project’s first phase, which spans about 100km from the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, new utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track. It also includes support for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The tender notice was issued in late November.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    MEED understands that these two packages are the first of four that SAR is expected to tender for the phosphate railway line. Other packages anticipated to be tendered shortly include the depot and systems packages.

    In 2023, MEED reported that SAR was planning two projects to increase its freight capacity, including an estimated SR4.2bn ($1.1bn) project to install a second track along the North Train Freight Line and construct three new freight yards.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km-long freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. There, it diverges into a line southward to Riyadh and a second line running east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and the freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and facilitate increased industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including the construction of a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16622526/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal