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Kuwaiti banks enter bounce-back mode

10 August 2023

 

With low levels of non-performing loans (NPLs) and improving funding metrics, 2023 is proving to be a solid year for Kuwaiti banks. At the same time, the promise of project-related lending is also starting to firm up on the horizon.

Profitability is trending in the right direction, with half-year results in 2023 revealing robust performances for the largest banks in the tightly knit firmament of 11 Kuwaiti banks. 

While unlikely to repeat last year’s growth levels, which saw net income increase by 25.3 per cent on average thanks in part to bulging interest margins, lower loan impairments and a continued focus on cost efficiencies, this year’s six-month reporting cycle indicates double-digit growth will be repeated for the full year.

National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), the country’s largest lender, reported a 16 per cent increase in first half 2023 profits to KD275.3m ($895.3m), as interest income rose. Total assets in the first half increased by 5.3 per cent to KD36.1bn ($117.4bn).

As NBK chief executive Isam al-Sager noted: “Strong business growth, robust liquidity and prudent levels of asset quality will continue to drive profit growth throughout 2023.”

Robust fundamentals

Improving NPL metrics – already the lowest in the GCC – and solid funding growth are driving improvements for the country’s banks.

The IMF noted in an assessment earlier this year that banks remain well capitalised and liquid — comfortably exceeding prudential regulatory requirements. Last year, the average capital adequacy ratio was 17.3 per cent, above the 12 per cent limit required by the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK).

NPLs remain low by regional standards, at least in part because Kuwait’s small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector is not as vibrant as some other Gulf states, meaning fewer insolvent customers to deal with. The average bank’s customer portfolio comprises Kuwaiti nationals who work in solid government jobs and are considered low-risk customers.

Another supporting factor in terms of asset quality is the solid performance of Kuwait’s real estate sector, which has relatively little exposure to foreign investments – removing the risk of speculation-driven increases affecting the banking market.  

On a note of caution, Ashraf Madani, vice-president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service, says there have been some issues for Kuwaiti banks with foreign operations, in Turkey and Egypt, for instance.

“Foreign currency translations have also impacted capital. So we saw a slight decline in the capital ratio over the past two to three years. But there’s still strong capitalisation,” he says.

“Most banks have large corporate borrowers that have been in the business for quite some time. They have established long-term relationships with the banks, and the portfolio has good seasoning.”

The funding side is also improving, Madani notes, and this year there seems to be higher growth from the deposit side compared to the credit side, which is slightly favourable for the funding of banks.

Growth in the pipeline

Lending to the private sector should remain strong, despite a series of interest hikes that have grown by 250 basis points since the global monetary policy tightening cycle began in 2022.

Lending growth averaged a healthy 7.7 per cent last year, although this year will not be as high.

“This year, our expectation is that the credit growth in the system will be around 3 per cent,” says Madani.

“That’s for two reasons. Number one is that we don’t expect the exceptional growth last year to continue on the consumer side because we’re coming from a high base already in 2022.

“And number two, there are some repayments on the corporate side this year, and these are basically offset by some good project awards on the corporate side. There are some big projects awards happening this year.”

Another push for credit growth will come from a new mortgage law, under which local lenders can provide a housing loan of up to KD140,000 ($455,000) and on which the state will cover the interest for the first KD70,000 ($227,000) on behalf of the borrower.

An increase in project awards this year could technically drive credit higher, but expected tepid growth on the consumer side will likely exert a smothering effect on total loan performance.

On the regulatory side, the Central Bank’s regular review of the adequacy of its financial regulatory perimeter and macroprudential policy toolkit have won the IMF’s plaudits.

The fund said the CBK will continue to regularly stress test the banking system's resilience to emerging financial stability risks, and said the existing blanket guarantee on bank deposits should be gradually replaced with a limited deposit insurance framework to address moral hazard.

Meanwhile, the interest rate cap on commercial loans should be phased out to support efficient risk pricing and credit supply to SMEs.

Though NBK, once the largest GCC bank by assets, has been overtaken in size by the region’s emergent banking behemoths such as the UAE’s First Abu Dhabi Bank and Saudi National Bank, it and other national heavyweights remain active lenders with a keen interest in servicing economic opportunities in Kuwait and beyond.

Big ticket mergers are not in the pipeline this year, but after the tumult of recent years, Kuwaiti lenders will be happy with stable, if unspectacular, growth.

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James Gavin

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    Foreign interest in Syria’s oil and gas sector is growing as the government moves to revive the industry and elevated global energy prices improve the economics of new developments.

    A series of agreements signed in recent months has attracted some of the world’s largest energy companies, raising expectations that investment and production could accelerate.

    However, despite growing optimism, significant security, financial and regulatory challenges remain, which could constrain the pace of growth for years to come.

    Military control

    Optimism among foreign businesses about potential opportunities in the country was boosted in January this year when Syria’s central government regained control of most of the country’s oil and gas assets.

    On 13 January 2026, the Syrian government launched an offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the territories of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

    The offensive was initially focused on eastern Aleppo Governorate, around the towns of Deir Hafer and Maskanah, and was expanded on 17 January to include Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and Al-Hasakah Governorates.

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    The Omar field is Syria’s largest oil field and the Conoco field hosts Syria’s largest gas processing plant, which previously supplied several power stations, including the Jandar plant in Homs, one of the country’s largest.

    Before the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, this field produced about 10 million cubic metres of natural gas a day.

    On 18 January, an agreement was signed under which Damascus assumed administrative and security control over all major oil and gas assets previously held by the SDF in the northeast of the country.

    Wider market

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    Disruption in the waterway – which normally transports about 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil and refined products, as well as around 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas – triggered a surge in global energy prices and sent oil companies scrambling to develop resources that did not rely on the strait as an export route.

    Syria is increasingly being viewed as a potential option for major oil and gas development projects due to its significant unrealised reserves and its geographic position across the Mediterranean from consumer markets in Europe.

    Syria’s production currently stands at around 110,000 b/d, down from a peak of 380,000 b/d in 2011, according to a report published by the US-Syria Business Council in April.

    The country’s recoverable oil reserves are estimated at 2.5 billion barrels, and Syria also has significant gas reserves.

    In April, Yousef Qiblawy, chief executive of the state-owned Syria Petroleum Company (SPC), said his organisation aimed to double national production before 2027 and boost output to 800,000 b/d by the end of 2029, not including offshore production.

    He said: “Before the takeover of the northeast, we were producing 10,000-15,000 b/d.

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    In 2013, Russia’s Soyuzneftegaz signed an offshore exploration agreement with Damascus, but the project was abandoned during the civil war and never progressed to drilling.

    Making deals

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    On 11 May, SPC announced plans for Syria’s first-ever offshore oil and gas exploration project.

    The deep-water project is being carried out in partnership with US-based Chevron and Qatar’s UCC Holding.

    SPC said that it had, together with Chevron and UCC Holding, defined the boundaries of the offshore block, paving the way for finalising contracts and starting technical operations this year.

    The three companies previously signed a preliminary deal in February to evaluate offshore oil and gas exploration in Syrian waters.

    On 12 May, France’s TotalEnergies, state-owned QatarEnergy and US-based ConocoPhillips signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with SPC relating to the exploration of Syria’s offshore Block 3.

    Under the terms of the preliminary deal, the companies will carry out a technical review of the area.

    The agreement also established a framework for technical and commercial discussions related to exploration activities on the block.

    ConocoPhillips also signed another MoU in November last year, along with Houston-headquartered Novaterra Energy, focused on developing several gas fields and launching exploration programmes.

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    At the time, Qiblawy said the agreement was expected to boost the country’s gas production by 4-5 million cubic metres a day within a year.

    On 8 May, the Croatian oil company INA and Hungary’s MOL announced that they had held a series of meetings with SPC focused on exploring options to restart INA’s oil and gas operations in Syria.

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    In 2011, oil and gas production at INA’s Syrian concessions had reached 37,300 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

    By the time the company suspended operations in Syria in 2012, it had invested approximately $1.1bn in the country and had built a gas processing plant at the Hayan gas field.

    Resuming activities

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    Gulfsands is the official operator of Syria’s Block 26, but for 15 years after the start of the Syrian civil war, it could not access the asset.

    The company declared force majeure in late 2011 and, until recently, it was under the control of the Kurdish-led SDF.

    In a statement released after the April meeting with Syria’s president, John Bell confirmed that his company had recently regained access to Block 26, which he described as “an important milestone for Gulfsands and for Syria”.

    He added: “This development provides a strong foundation for the recommencement of operations and investment.

    “We are now back on the ground in Syria, working closely with SPC to accelerate towards a full resumption of activities.”

    Bell also said that, as a result of a global drive to diversify away from “traditional choke points like the Strait of Hormuz”, Syria had the potential to become “a new world energy hub”.

    In April, Saudi Arabia’s ADES Holding Company signed an implementation contract with SPC to develop several gas fields in Syria.

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    Industry insiders are also watching US-based HKN Energy, which has close ties to the Trump administration, after Qiblawy said in January that the company had expressed interest in entering the Syrian oil and gas sector.

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    In a separate statement in April, Hunter Hunt, chief executive and chairman of Hunt Oil Company, said: “President Sharaa’s vision is bold, it is comprehensive, and it is full of execution and getting things done … We like what we see on a forward-looking basis.”

    Challenges remain

    While SPC’s Qiblawy has outlined ambitious targets to increase oil and gas production and international interest in the sector is growing, significant obstacles remain.

    A report published by the US-Syria Business Council in April highlighted several risks facing prospective projects. Among the most significant is the threat posed by Islamic State, particularly to pipeline infrastructure crossing remote desert regions.

    The report warned that securing large stretches of sparsely populated territory remains difficult, increasing the risk of attacks on critical energy infrastructure.

    It also highlighted the possibility of renewed conflict in northeastern Syria, where the SDF previously controlled many of the country’s most important oil and gas assets. According to the report, the current ceasefire remains fragile and any deterioration in relations could reignite territorial disputes.

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    Although sanctions on Syria have been eased considerably, the country remains designated by the US as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. As a result, licences are still required for many controlled exports, including oilfield equipment, software and technology.

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    For international energy companies seeking opportunities outside traditional export routes and geopolitical chokepoints, Syria is increasingly emerging as a market with significant long-term potential, albeit one accompanied by substantial risk.

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