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Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development

7 August 2026

 

Kuwait was one of the chief targets of Iranian drone and missile strikes during July, but against the backdrop of regional instability, the Kuwaiti authorities also managed to conclude a series of significant deals during the month. That suggests that, if the US and Iran can come to some sort of agreement to end their conflict, there is the potential for the Kuwaiti economy to diversify and expand in a way that it has, until now, struggled to do.

The sense of nascent progress was bolstered in early August, when a survey of local businesses found that the non-oil sector had returned to growth at the start of the third quarter, having been in a slump since the start of the war. However, the risk of renewed fighting means most observers remain deeply cautious about whether the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) is just a blip, or the start of a longer trend.

Debt deals

The first big deal came on 22 July, when the government sold $6bn-worth of bonds. It was the second debt issuance by the authorities since a long-awaited public debt law was passed by decree last year. The latest package included debt with tenors of three, five and 10 years. In a sign of the turbulent geopolitical environment, the bonds were priced at 70-85 basis points over US Treasuries. Notably higher than the 40-50 basis point spread the government achieved in its bond sale late last year.

The second significant development came just a few days later, with Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) unveiling a $16bn deal with international investors Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR for its crude oil pipeline network. In a similar structure to deals struck in the past by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Saudi Aramco, KOC will lease the country’s domestic and export pipelines to a new joint venture it has set up with the trio of international partners. The Kuwaiti energy company will then lease back the pipelines on an exclusive basis, in return for a volume-based tariff.

KOC will have a 51% stake in the joint venture and – in line with Kuwaiti law – will retain full ownership and operational control of the 320-kilometre network.

It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country. The $7.85bn that the three international partners will invest upfront will be used to support KOC parent company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s wider capital expenditure plans.

The fact that the country was able to secure the deal at a time when its only existing export route – through the Strait of Hormuz – has been effectively closed off is an important vote of confidence by investors in the country’s longer-term prospects. According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Kuwait’s crude export volumes had fallen from 1.2 million barrels a day before the year to zero in April.

It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country

UK-based Oxford Economics noted that the bond issue and the pipeline deal came at a time when Kuwait “faces elevated fiscal funding needs and remains one of the GCC’s most exposed oil exporters to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz given its limited alternative export infrastructure”.

Blackstone said it also plans to open an office in Kuwait this year. There was a further show of investor interest in early August, when the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) reportedly agreed a $4.25bn, three-year loan from a group of 14 banks. The facility will be used for general corporate purposes, according to Bloomberg.

In a further notable development, Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works also handed a contract in late July to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) to build the country’s largest wastewater treatment plant. The North Kabd plant will have a capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day (cm/d). Kuwaiti water desalination plants have been hit on several occasions by Iranian drones during this year’s war, causing fires and other damage.

Policy reforms

On a smaller level, some notable reforms have been rolled out to try to shape the direction of the non-oil economy too. In late July, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry stopped issuing any more sole-trader or freelance business licences, while a review is carried out into the sector and official oversight is tightened.

The authorities went a step further on 2 August, when a decree was issued to stop businesses offering goods and services without the right sort of licence. Anyone found to be working without the required permit could now face a prison term of up to three years and a fine of up to KD100,000 ($323,000) – or a sum equivalent to the profits generated by the unlicensed activity, whichever is greater.

Some steps have been taken to ease restrictions in other areas. In early August, a change to the visa system was announced that will allow some foreign nationals to convert a visit visa into a regular residency permit in return for a fee of KD150. The measure proved immediately popular, but many applicants had failed to read the small print and, according to local media reports, several hundred were rejected. The scheme is primarily aimed at those seeking to bring their wives or children to Kuwait, as well as humanitarian cases and others with exceptional circumstances.

Economic recovery

The wider economy is showing tentative signs of improvement. The latest PMI survey delivered an unexpectedly strong result, showing that the non-oil private sector returned to growth in July for the first time since the war began.

S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the index, said the resumption of flights at Kuwait International airport had helped to support a rise in output and new orders – the first for five months. That in turn supported greater purchasing and hiring activity by local businesses and took the index up to 50.8 points – just above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

Even so, S&P warned that market conditions remain “challenging” while local bank NBK Capital warned in early August that “it remains to be seen how much of this improvement [in the PMI] will be sustained … following the reescalation in US-Iran tensions in the past weeks”.

If the Kuwaiti economy is to make the most of its potential, the country needs the war between Iran and the US to come to a definitive end.

MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait also includes:

> BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
> OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife

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Dominic Dudley

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