Kuwait navigates unchartered political territory

29 August 2024

 

Kuwait’s political situation and its near-term prospects for governance continue to hinge on the dramatic suspension of the nation’s parliament by Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah.

This drastic measure by the country’s leader came in response to a deepening political stagnation in Kuwaiti politics that has seen successive formations of parliament and government deadlocked over the most fundamental of fiscal legislation: approving the budget and raising the debt ceiling.

Underlying these stumbling blocks are allegations of fiscal and budgetary malfeasance levelled by the elected lawmakers in parliament at the ruler-appointed and ruling family-led cabinet.

In recent years, the proceedings in parliament have become increasingly acrimonious, with lawmakers frequently demanding the right to question cabinet members – a demand that has instead often simply resulted in the dissolution of the government.

Kuwait’s political system has often been described as a “democratic experiment”, as it was a first in the GCC to devolve significant legislative authority to a chamber of fairly freely elected representatives.

On 10 May, however, after the fourth election in four years in pursuit of a functioning government resulted in the same rigmarole, the emir triggered the system’s inbuilt circuit breaker for the first time since its establishment and effectively placed the experiment on hold.

Two days later, the emir announced the formation of a new cabinet headed by Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah as the returning prime minister. The country’s oil, finance and foreign ministers all retained their posts as well, making it a continuity cabinet, but in the absence of parliament.

Officially, the rules allow for the suspension of parliament for up to four years, enabling direct rule by the emir and his cabinet in the interim. Kuwait has thus returned, temporarily, to something of a default setting for the GCC. But it is a dramatic turn of events for Kuwait given the country’s well-worn electoral legacy – even as its other positively regarded attributes, such as a relatively free press, remain intact.

Project revitalisation

The emir’s decision is nevertheless being viewed in many quarters as a potentially positive development, not least in the projects sector. The political deadlock plaguing the country has been a salient problem for contractors in recent years due to the way parliamentary objections have impeded project spending.

Indeed, political disputes over capital expenditure have come close to scuttling Kuwait’s projects sector, which has seen its activity plummet over the past decade, with the country’s $16.5bn in contract awards in 2016 plunging to just $2.6bn in 2019 and averaging less than $4bn in the past five years. Given the parallel $100bn in project completions over the past 10 years, this fall in awards has resulted in a $50bn net decline in the value of projects under execution.

This loss of value from the projects sector has been detrimental to Kuwaiti contractors, who have been looking abroad in increasing numbers for alternative avenues of work. The drop-off in value in the project market has also been even more dramatic in certain industries, including the oil sector, where the total value of active projects fell from $65bn in early 2019 to just over $5bn by early 2023.

The reduction in oil sector projects, where constant work is required to maintain the performance of the infrastructure, is a threat to the main driver of the Kuwaiti economy and government revenues.

Given the country’s limited diversification and the accounting of the oil sector for 60% of Kuwait’s GDP and 90% of government revenue, the potential long-term consequences of the nation’s political dysfunction metastasising into dysfunction in the oil sector are considerable. 

It is not surprising then that one of the first things on the agenda since the suspension of parliament has been the revival of oil sector projects – with the country’s Central Agency for Public Tenders now meeting three days a week since July to advance the tendering of major schemes.

Political correction

Political reform is also on the table. In his televised address to the nation on 10 May, the emir stated: “The recent turmoil in the Kuwaiti political scene has reached a stage where we cannot remain silent, so we must take all necessary measures to achieve the best interest of the country and its people.”

The presentation of the challenges facing the country in existential terms underlined the heightened perception that Kuwait was careening towards disaster amid political paralysis, falling oil infrastructure investment and snowballing expenses.

However, regardless of the “unimaginable, unbearable difficulties and impediments”, facing the country, the retaking of direct control by the emir and cabinet is no assurance that the trouble is over. The country still faces stark policy choices, including how to tackle its burgeoning public wage bill, which currently stands at about 30% of the country’s GDP and is only set to grow with rising pay and pensions.

These are costs that Kuwait cannot bear without robust oil sector development, and even that might not be enough. Economic projections have suggested public salaries could make up as much as 75% of the budget within five years, which could rapidly shrink the fiscal space for any other spending.

This is a burgeoning dilemma for the country that cannot be tackled overnight, but with four years of determined and unencumbered course correction, Kuwait could at least develop some more options.

Constitutional amendments could also be unveiled to prevent a return to political paralysis when a parliament re-forms. The ability of the house to override the emir’s veto with a simple majority, as well as to hold votes of no confidence for ministers, are two areas where changes could be made to smooth the political process – for example by requiring a super majority to overturn the emir’s veto or by making the conditions necessary to challenge the confidence in a minister more stringent.

Regardless, what is abundantly clear is that the existing system was not functioning as required – at the most fundamental level – in making basic legislative progress. Everything could now get back on track, but there are ample more “difficulties and impediments” to address, and Kuwait needs fresh solutions.


This month's special report on Kuwait includes

> GOVERNMENT: Kuwait navigates unchartered political territory
> ECONOMY: Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms
> BANKING: Kuwaiti banks hunt for growth 
> OIL & GAS: 
Kuwait oil project activity doubles
> POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities battle uncertainty
> CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction sector turns corner

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John Bambridge
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    China State Construction Engineering Corporation recently signed a contract for Kuwait’s North Kabd wastewater treatment plant, the country’s largest wastewater infrastructure project to date.

    The award, following more than a decade of planning, propelled Kuwait’s water sector contract awards to more than $4bn as of early August, according to regional project tracker MEED Projects.

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    A joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) and India’s VA Tech Wabag will carry out the project, which will have a capacity of about 272,000 cm/d.

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    The contract to develop the 1,100MW phase three, zone one solar photovoltaic (PV) project is expected to be confirmed soon, with a consortium led by Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) previously reported to be the frontrunner.

    A separate 500MW solar PV project is also being procured under phase three, zone two of the same programme, with bids submitted on 26 July. If the contract is awarded by the end of the year, the two Shagaya contracts would add about $2bn to the value of power sector awards.  

    Another notable development was the 25-year energy conversion and water purchase agreement signed in February for the Al-Zour North IWPP phases two and three. The signing marked a key step towards financial close on the estimated $4bn project. Once completed, the facility will add 2,700MW of power and 120 MIGD of desalinated water to Kuwait’s supply network

    The Shagaya, Khairan and Zour North projects form a key part of Kuwait’s generation portfolio. The country is aiming to reach 22,100MW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, under a 20-year strategy announced in March 2025 that extends to 2050.

    Kuwait is also continuing to invest in existing generation plants. MEWRE is evaluating bids for the $1.7bn upgrade of the Subiya power and water plant, including the conversion of units from open-cycle to combined-cycle operation and the modernisation of existing facilities.

    Battery energy storage systems

    In the near to medium term, more than $10bn-worth of power projects are under bid evaluation. This includes several battery energy storage system projects with a planned total storage capacity of 1.5GW.

    In June, Kuwait approved sites in Al-Mutlaa and Jaber Al-Ahmad cities for the development of the projects. The projects will be implemented in phases, with the first phase providing 500MW of storage capacity. The first facilities are expected to be operational by summer 2027 and will supply stored energy to the electricity grid during periods of peak demand.

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    She added: “On exports, of course, we try our best to satisfy requirements and work closely with customers. But in terms of gas supply to the UAE, we are at 100%.”

    Role of robotics and AI

    Responding to a question about the deployment of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) to carry out damage assessment and repair work at the Habshan gas processing facility, Al-Nuaimi said: “One of the technical challenges in restoring the facilities quickly was that we had to inspect a significant part of our assets – some 600 kilometres of piping of different sizes across the facilities.

    “If we had done this in the conventional way, we would have spent around 100 additional days putting up scaffolding and sending people to conduct manual and visual inspections.”

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    “It was not just about time; it was also about safety. It spared us from sending our people into critical areas that might not yet have been safe.”

    She added: “We also used robotics in responding to fires and accessing certain parts of the assets.

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