Kuwait navigates unchartered political territory

29 August 2024

 

Kuwait’s political situation and its near-term prospects for governance continue to hinge on the dramatic suspension of the nation’s parliament by Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah.

This drastic measure by the country’s leader came in response to a deepening political stagnation in Kuwaiti politics that has seen successive formations of parliament and government deadlocked over the most fundamental of fiscal legislation: approving the budget and raising the debt ceiling.

Underlying these stumbling blocks are allegations of fiscal and budgetary malfeasance levelled by the elected lawmakers in parliament at the ruler-appointed and ruling family-led cabinet.

In recent years, the proceedings in parliament have become increasingly acrimonious, with lawmakers frequently demanding the right to question cabinet members – a demand that has instead often simply resulted in the dissolution of the government.

Kuwait’s political system has often been described as a “democratic experiment”, as it was a first in the GCC to devolve significant legislative authority to a chamber of fairly freely elected representatives.

On 10 May, however, after the fourth election in four years in pursuit of a functioning government resulted in the same rigmarole, the emir triggered the system’s inbuilt circuit breaker for the first time since its establishment and effectively placed the experiment on hold.

Two days later, the emir announced the formation of a new cabinet headed by Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah as the returning prime minister. The country’s oil, finance and foreign ministers all retained their posts as well, making it a continuity cabinet, but in the absence of parliament.

Officially, the rules allow for the suspension of parliament for up to four years, enabling direct rule by the emir and his cabinet in the interim. Kuwait has thus returned, temporarily, to something of a default setting for the GCC. But it is a dramatic turn of events for Kuwait given the country’s well-worn electoral legacy – even as its other positively regarded attributes, such as a relatively free press, remain intact.

Project revitalisation

The emir’s decision is nevertheless being viewed in many quarters as a potentially positive development, not least in the projects sector. The political deadlock plaguing the country has been a salient problem for contractors in recent years due to the way parliamentary objections have impeded project spending.

Indeed, political disputes over capital expenditure have come close to scuttling Kuwait’s projects sector, which has seen its activity plummet over the past decade, with the country’s $16.5bn in contract awards in 2016 plunging to just $2.6bn in 2019 and averaging less than $4bn in the past five years. Given the parallel $100bn in project completions over the past 10 years, this fall in awards has resulted in a $50bn net decline in the value of projects under execution.

This loss of value from the projects sector has been detrimental to Kuwaiti contractors, who have been looking abroad in increasing numbers for alternative avenues of work. The drop-off in value in the project market has also been even more dramatic in certain industries, including the oil sector, where the total value of active projects fell from $65bn in early 2019 to just over $5bn by early 2023.

The reduction in oil sector projects, where constant work is required to maintain the performance of the infrastructure, is a threat to the main driver of the Kuwaiti economy and government revenues.

Given the country’s limited diversification and the accounting of the oil sector for 60% of Kuwait’s GDP and 90% of government revenue, the potential long-term consequences of the nation’s political dysfunction metastasising into dysfunction in the oil sector are considerable. 

It is not surprising then that one of the first things on the agenda since the suspension of parliament has been the revival of oil sector projects – with the country’s Central Agency for Public Tenders now meeting three days a week since July to advance the tendering of major schemes.

Political correction

Political reform is also on the table. In his televised address to the nation on 10 May, the emir stated: “The recent turmoil in the Kuwaiti political scene has reached a stage where we cannot remain silent, so we must take all necessary measures to achieve the best interest of the country and its people.”

The presentation of the challenges facing the country in existential terms underlined the heightened perception that Kuwait was careening towards disaster amid political paralysis, falling oil infrastructure investment and snowballing expenses.

However, regardless of the “unimaginable, unbearable difficulties and impediments”, facing the country, the retaking of direct control by the emir and cabinet is no assurance that the trouble is over. The country still faces stark policy choices, including how to tackle its burgeoning public wage bill, which currently stands at about 30% of the country’s GDP and is only set to grow with rising pay and pensions.

These are costs that Kuwait cannot bear without robust oil sector development, and even that might not be enough. Economic projections have suggested public salaries could make up as much as 75% of the budget within five years, which could rapidly shrink the fiscal space for any other spending.

This is a burgeoning dilemma for the country that cannot be tackled overnight, but with four years of determined and unencumbered course correction, Kuwait could at least develop some more options.

Constitutional amendments could also be unveiled to prevent a return to political paralysis when a parliament re-forms. The ability of the house to override the emir’s veto with a simple majority, as well as to hold votes of no confidence for ministers, are two areas where changes could be made to smooth the political process – for example by requiring a super majority to overturn the emir’s veto or by making the conditions necessary to challenge the confidence in a minister more stringent.

Regardless, what is abundantly clear is that the existing system was not functioning as required – at the most fundamental level – in making basic legislative progress. Everything could now get back on track, but there are ample more “difficulties and impediments” to address, and Kuwait needs fresh solutions.


This month's special report on Kuwait includes

> GOVERNMENT: Kuwait navigates unchartered political territory
> ECONOMY: Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms
> BANKING: Kuwaiti banks hunt for growth 
> OIL & GAS: 
Kuwait oil project activity doubles
> POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities battle uncertainty
> CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction sector turns corner

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John Bambridge
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    What we are seeing in the global energy sector is that there are very clear beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict … exporters that aren’t reliant on the Strait of Hormuz can take advantage of high oil prices to post profits and sanction new projects
    Slava Kiryushin, HFW

    Bolstered prospects

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    High prices are delivering windfall profits, while investment is flowing towards projects perceived as less exposed to future attacks or a renewed blockade of the strait.

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    Commenting on the implications of the conflict, Slava Kiryushin, an international oil and gas lawyer and partner at London-headquartered law firm HFW, said: “There has already been a massive impact from this conflict on global energy markets. Producers in the GCC have been impacted more than others.

    “The most important factors right now are the damage caused to infrastructure from strikes on energy facilities and how quickly those can be remedied,” he said. “Even if this war ends tomorrow, many will remain concerned about political tensions in the region and the potential for future disruptions.

    “What we are seeing in the global energy sector is that there are very clear beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict … exporters that aren’t reliant on the Strait of Hormuz can take advantage of high oil prices to post profits and sanction new projects.”

    As revenues fall, repair costs rise and projects stall for national oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain, companies active in regions including the US, Australia, Russia and Africa are seeing significant benefits.

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    In March, Ukraine’s Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) estimated Russia was earning about $760m a day from oil exports, benefitting from high prices and US sanctions waivers.

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    US oil companies are also seeing bumper profits and higher share prices. Even as the broader US stock market has moved lower, ExxonMobil and Chevron shares have risen by more than 20% since the start of the year.

    Market research firm Rystad Energy has estimated that US oil producers could earn an additional $63bn in profit this year due to elevated prices.

    As producers outside the Middle East record large profits and ramp up output, some analysts argue the region’s future standing in global energy markets could be undermined.

    Commenting on the outlook for Qatari LNG, Doleman said: “Over the long term, the ongoing conflict could weaken Qatar’s bargaining position when the country is negotiating long-term gas contracts due to perceived risk associated with using the Strait of Hormuz.

    “Exports from other suppliers such as producers in the US or Australia could be viewed as more reliable and this could lead to the removal of resale restrictions and other elements that customers in Asia have been pushing back against for some time now.”

    Structural changes

    While uncertainty remains over how the war will end and how extensive future disruptions to energy supplies may be, it is increasingly likely the crisis will bring structural changes to global energy flows.

    There have already been shifts in energy relationships, with clients of GCC oil and gas producers seeking alternative suppliers and sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil being temporarily eased.

    While many of the arrangements made in the short period since the war began are likely to be temporary, some could become more durable over time.

    Iran has made the removal of sanctions one of its key demands to end the conflict with the US and Israel.

    With oil prices remaining high, many countries hit by rising energy costs would welcome the extension of sanctions waivers beyond existing deadlines, to keep crude supplies to global markets as high as possible.

    The scale and permanence of these changes will depend on how quickly the conflict can be resolved, and what assurances can be put in place to prevent it flaring up again.

    If the conflict is resolved quickly, it is possible that oil and gas sectors in Iraq and the GCC could see a significant rebound, returning towards pre-war operations.

    Prior to the war, low production costs in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq made them among the most profitable exporters in the world, and analysts believe that cost advantage will support a recovery once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

    “Though a lot of damage is being done, Middle East producers still have the advantage of some of the world’s cheapest and easiest-to-produce oil and gas,” Doleman said. “This means they are likely to retain their clients and a functioning business model once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.”

    However, if the conflict continues for an extended period, the prospect of a swift recovery would diminish and more dramatic structural changes to the global oil and gas industry would become more likely.

    That, in turn, could make the Middle East’s future role in global energy markets significantly smaller than previously forecast.

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    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait floats Doha Port feasibility tender

    9 April 2026

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    Kuwait Ports Authority has floated a tender inviting consultants to bid for a contract to undertake feasibility studies for the development of the Doha Port project, located on the southern side of Kuwait Bay in the Capital Governorate.

    The tender was issued on 5 April, with a bid submission deadline of 5 May.

    Doha Port is a key regional trade port in Kuwait that was handed over to Kuwait Ports Authority in 1977.

    The port primarily serves small ships and traditional vessels, facilitating trade with the GCC and other nearby countries.

    According to Kuwait Ports Authority, the port spans more than 388,000 square metres and currently has nine berths.

    The port’s storage area is over 270,000 sq m and it handles cargo volumes of about 115,869 tonnes, with capacity for 878 vessels.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Kuwait completed construction works on the second phase of the port’s berths in 2021.

    Local firm Specialities Group Holding was awarded the construction contract in 2017.

    UK-headquartered analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to record an average annual growth rate of 4.9% between 2026 and 2029, supported by investments in the oil and gas and renewable energy sectors.

    The infrastructure construction sector was expected to expand by 4% in real terms in 2025, before stabilising at an annual average growth rate of 5.1% from 2026 to 2029, supported by the government’s focus on cross-border projects to develop the country’s transport infrastructure.


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