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Kuwait navigates unchartered political territory

29 August 2024

 

Kuwait’s political situation and its near-term prospects for governance continue to hinge on the dramatic suspension of the nation’s parliament by Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah.

This drastic measure by the country’s leader came in response to a deepening political stagnation in Kuwaiti politics that has seen successive formations of parliament and government deadlocked over the most fundamental of fiscal legislation: approving the budget and raising the debt ceiling.

Underlying these stumbling blocks are allegations of fiscal and budgetary malfeasance levelled by the elected lawmakers in parliament at the ruler-appointed and ruling family-led cabinet.

In recent years, the proceedings in parliament have become increasingly acrimonious, with lawmakers frequently demanding the right to question cabinet members – a demand that has instead often simply resulted in the dissolution of the government.

Kuwait’s political system has often been described as a “democratic experiment”, as it was a first in the GCC to devolve significant legislative authority to a chamber of fairly freely elected representatives.

On 10 May, however, after the fourth election in four years in pursuit of a functioning government resulted in the same rigmarole, the emir triggered the system’s inbuilt circuit breaker for the first time since its establishment and effectively placed the experiment on hold.

Two days later, the emir announced the formation of a new cabinet headed by Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah as the returning prime minister. The country’s oil, finance and foreign ministers all retained their posts as well, making it a continuity cabinet, but in the absence of parliament.

Officially, the rules allow for the suspension of parliament for up to four years, enabling direct rule by the emir and his cabinet in the interim. Kuwait has thus returned, temporarily, to something of a default setting for the GCC. But it is a dramatic turn of events for Kuwait given the country’s well-worn electoral legacy – even as its other positively regarded attributes, such as a relatively free press, remain intact.

Project revitalisation

The emir’s decision is nevertheless being viewed in many quarters as a potentially positive development, not least in the projects sector. The political deadlock plaguing the country has been a salient problem for contractors in recent years due to the way parliamentary objections have impeded project spending.

Indeed, political disputes over capital expenditure have come close to scuttling Kuwait’s projects sector, which has seen its activity plummet over the past decade, with the country’s $16.5bn in contract awards in 2016 plunging to just $2.6bn in 2019 and averaging less than $4bn in the past five years. Given the parallel $100bn in project completions over the past 10 years, this fall in awards has resulted in a $50bn net decline in the value of projects under execution.

This loss of value from the projects sector has been detrimental to Kuwaiti contractors, who have been looking abroad in increasing numbers for alternative avenues of work. The drop-off in value in the project market has also been even more dramatic in certain industries, including the oil sector, where the total value of active projects fell from $65bn in early 2019 to just over $5bn by early 2023.

The reduction in oil sector projects, where constant work is required to maintain the performance of the infrastructure, is a threat to the main driver of the Kuwaiti economy and government revenues.

Given the country’s limited diversification and the accounting of the oil sector for 60% of Kuwait’s GDP and 90% of government revenue, the potential long-term consequences of the nation’s political dysfunction metastasising into dysfunction in the oil sector are considerable. 

It is not surprising then that one of the first things on the agenda since the suspension of parliament has been the revival of oil sector projects – with the country’s Central Agency for Public Tenders now meeting three days a week since July to advance the tendering of major schemes.

Political correction

Political reform is also on the table. In his televised address to the nation on 10 May, the emir stated: “The recent turmoil in the Kuwaiti political scene has reached a stage where we cannot remain silent, so we must take all necessary measures to achieve the best interest of the country and its people.”

The presentation of the challenges facing the country in existential terms underlined the heightened perception that Kuwait was careening towards disaster amid political paralysis, falling oil infrastructure investment and snowballing expenses.

However, regardless of the “unimaginable, unbearable difficulties and impediments”, facing the country, the retaking of direct control by the emir and cabinet is no assurance that the trouble is over. The country still faces stark policy choices, including how to tackle its burgeoning public wage bill, which currently stands at about 30% of the country’s GDP and is only set to grow with rising pay and pensions.

These are costs that Kuwait cannot bear without robust oil sector development, and even that might not be enough. Economic projections have suggested public salaries could make up as much as 75% of the budget within five years, which could rapidly shrink the fiscal space for any other spending.

This is a burgeoning dilemma for the country that cannot be tackled overnight, but with four years of determined and unencumbered course correction, Kuwait could at least develop some more options.

Constitutional amendments could also be unveiled to prevent a return to political paralysis when a parliament re-forms. The ability of the house to override the emir’s veto with a simple majority, as well as to hold votes of no confidence for ministers, are two areas where changes could be made to smooth the political process – for example by requiring a super majority to overturn the emir’s veto or by making the conditions necessary to challenge the confidence in a minister more stringent.

Regardless, what is abundantly clear is that the existing system was not functioning as required – at the most fundamental level – in making basic legislative progress. Everything could now get back on track, but there are ample more “difficulties and impediments” to address, and Kuwait needs fresh solutions.

This month's special report on Kuwait includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Kuwait navigates unchartered political territory
> ECONOMY: Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms
> BANKING: Kuwaiti banks hunt for growth 
> OIL & GAS: Kuwait oil project activity doubles
> POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities battle uncertainty
> CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction sector turns corner

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John Bambridge

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    This package also includes: Region’s hotel projects pipeline balloons

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    Diversifying its offering is a key part of Saudi Arabia’s tourism strategy, which aims to attract 70 million international visitors by 2030

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    Region’s hotel projects pipeline balloons

    Main image: High-end beachfront resorts such as Red Sea Global’s Shebara will be vital in achieving Saudi Arabia’s tourism targets. Credit: Red Sea Global – Shebara

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    Colin Foreman
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    This package also includes: Traffic drives construction underground

    The pipeline of tunnel construction projects around the world as tracked by GlobalData stands at $1.3tn, encompassing projects from announcement to execution.

    The total pipeline value reflects the overall values of projects that are either entirely tunnels or that have tunnels as an integral part of the work. The project pipeline includes tunnelling works across a range of sectors, including road and railway development, as well as water and sewerage.

    The pipeline of tunnel construction projects around the world currently stands at $1.3tn

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    These challenges have already impacted project viability, leading to the withdrawal or postponement of funding for 50 projects in Australia’s $78.6bn infrastructure investment programme due to cost increases of over $21bn. The conflicts in Russia and Ukraine, the situation in Gaza and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea are weighing on new investment levels, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa region due to increased uncertainty.

    However, this decrease in new tunnel investment is not expected to be uniform globally, as China’s significant infrastructure investment drive, the US’ Infrastructure and Jobs Act and India’s various infrastructure investment programmes are driving new investment in their respective regions.

    > Middle East and North Africa (Mena)
    The Mena region has a tunnel construction pipeline valued at $128.6bn. The UAE is one of the leading markets, with $25.4bn of projects that are mainly for metro systems and water and sewage tunnels. Across the region, economic factors like high debt and lower oil revenues may hinder the progress of these projects in the future.
    > Western Europe

    Western Europe has a tunnel construction project pipeline valued at $329.5bn, with Switzerland leading with $60.6bn of projects, follwed by Germany with $56.8bn. Notable projects include the Turin-Lyon tunnel and the Genoa underwater tunnel. Projects in pre-execution and execution stages total $222.8bn, with the highest-value project being Zurich’s $38.8bn CST (underground cargo) Freight Metro Tunnel.

    > Northeast Asia

    Northeast Asia’s tunnel construction pipeline is valued at $327.7bn, with China contributing $220.3bn, including the $42.4bn Dalian-Yantai undersea railway tunnel. Japan has projects worth $101.3bn, primarily the $65.2bn Tokyo to Nagoya Maglev Railway Line. Most projects are in later development stages, totalling $198.3bn, or 69.8% of the pipeline.

    > Australasia

    Australasia’s tunnel construction pipeline totals $150.1bn, with Australia holding $112.9bn, about 75% of the region’s value. The largest project is the $87bn Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop, a 90km rail loop with 13 stations. Construction on six stations began in 2022, with the entire project expected to finish by 2050, though rising costs and labour shortages may affect this.

    > North America

    North America’s tunnel projects are valued at $92.4bn, with $63.6bn in pre-execution and execution stages. The pipeline includes 921.8km of tunnels, primarily in the US. Railway tunnels are the largest segment at $40.7bn, with the Hudson River Rail Tunnel being the highest-value project at $16bn.

    > Southeast Asia

    Southeast Asia’s tunnel pipeline is valued at $91.3bn, with $55.1bn under construction. Singapore leads with $45.2bn, mainly from rail tunnel projects. The Land Transport Authority awarded a $199m contract for tunnels connecting MRT stations as part of the Cross Island Line’s second phase.

    > Eastern Europe

    Eastern Europe’s pipeline is valued at $56.3bn, with $46.9bn in pre-execution and execution stages. Major contributors include Turkiye, Czechia and Romania, which has the largest share at $16.3bn. The $9bn Bucharest Metro Line 5 is a key project expected to complete by 2033, with spending projected to rise in the coming years.

    > South Asia

    South Asia’s tunnel construction pipeline is valued at $47.9bn, with India contributing $31.9bn, primarily from road tunnels. A notable project is the $1.3bn Thane to Borivali underground tunnel. The pipeline includes 2,043.7km of developments, with spending expected to reach $1.8bn in 2024.

    > Latin America

    Latin America has a growing tunnel construction pipeline valued at $30.3bn, with $28.7bn in later development stages. The region includes 276.2km of projects, with Colombia leading at 92.1km. The highest-value project is the $9.6bn Bogota Metro, which began construction in early 2021.

    > Sub-Saharan Africa

    Sub-Saharan Africa’s tunnel construction pipeline is valued at $6.7bn, with 63.7% in pre-execution and execution stages. The pipeline includes 1,580km of projects, primarily in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Kenya. Spending may reach $685.4m in 2025, but investment constraints may limit new projects.

    In conclusion, while the global tunnel construction industry faces challenges due to muted spending, high construction material prices and geopolitical uncertainties, significant infrastructure investment initiatives in countries like China, the US and India are expected to continue driving new investment.

    Traffic drives construction underground 

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13568541/main.gif
    Colin Foreman