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Kuwait looks to capitalise on consolidation of power

12 August 2025

 

The passing of the debt law in March 2025 appeared to herald a new page being turned in Kuwait’s turbulent history, after a five-year period that witnessed 10 cabinet resignations, four parliamentary elections and repeated gridlock hamstringing decision-making.

Members of parliament (MPs) had previously blocked the government’s attempts to bring in legislation to allow the state to issue debt. However, more than one year on from emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah’s dissolution of the National Assembly and the suspension of key elements of the Kuwaiti constitution, the leadership managed to unshackle itself from traditional constraints on policymaking and pass the law.

Such reforms have real-world impacts on Kuwait. The public debt law allows the sovereign to issue up to KD30bn ($98bn) over 50 years, releasing funds to support centrepiece economic projects. Given that past political logjams had delayed economic reforms – contributing, according to Fitch Ratings, to a reduction in real GDP of 2.8% in 2024 – there should at least be some upside from moves that have drawn criticism for setting Kuwait on a path towards autocracy.

What would provide further reassurance that the emir’s consolidation of power is having a positive impact would be for the proposed residential mortgage law to be approved, which would allow banks to offer housing loans to Kuwaiti citizens.

Political uncertainty

Much is still unclear about the path forward. Parliament’s suspension is intended to be limited to its four-year term. This should allow for further measures of constitutional change designed to prevent a repeat of the impasse and delays that have frustrated ordinary Kuwaitis for many years.

The situation is not helped by the advanced age of Sheikh Meshal, who is about to turn 85. That leaves questions as to whether the legislature will ever return to its former status as an independent chamber able to scrutinise government actions, and whether a reformed parliament will emerge from the process – without the attendant political dysfunction that has marked its performance.

As one Kuwaiti analyst tells MEED, there is no evidence that radical political change is on the emir’s agenda. “The public does not expect the parliament’s suspension to last long. The system is broadly the same as before.”

Other analysts see a status quo setting in over the near- to medium-term, giving the leadership some room to manoeuvre.

“There’s no realistic prospect of a return of the National Assembly in the coming year, and the broader public’s dissatisfaction with MPs, viewed as largely responsible for the impasse and failure to support the country’s development, means there is less pressure on Sheikh Meshal to revive the legislature anytime soon,” says Kristian Ulrichsen, Middle East fellow at Rice University. 

There is a strong sense in the leadership’s circle that decision-making is now proceeding more smoothly, and that popular frustrations with MPs’ actions over successive years leaves the executive with more leeway to develop a bold political and economic platform.

“Many Kuwaitis believed that allowing the broken system to continue as before would have achieved nothing. This has given Sheikh Meshal a level of support in his moves to consolidate power,” says Ulrichsen.

That does not mean that Sheikh Meshal’s proposed path will lead to success. “Suspending parliament was still a high-risk move by the emir, as with the legislature out of the way, there’s no-one but himself to blame if things go wrong,” says Ulrichsen.  

Many Kuwaitis believed that allowing the broken system to continue as before would have achieved nothing

The extension of executive power has not meant an end to Kuwait’s political turbulence. The resignation of Finance Minister Nora Al-Fassam on 4 August, just weeks before she was due to compete here first year in office, is the latest in a series of high-level cabinet departures. No reason has been given for her quitting the cabinet.

Contentious rulings

A more lasting source of political turmoil is the controversial decision to remove the citizenship of an estimated 42,000 Kuwait citizens since September 2024, when the government enforced changes to the country’s Nationality Law.

This is proving the most contentious of the changes wrought by Sheikh Meshal since he took power in December 2023.  Those affected include individuals who have been accused of creating fake family relationships to win citizenship and women naturalised via marriage to Kuwaitis.

The citizenship revocation campaign reflects a populist agenda to strengthen nationalist sentiment around conceptions of citizenship. While it may have won public support in its targeting of foreigners who have been accused of attempting to secure generous welfare entitlements that are the birthright of Kuwaitis of ancestral citizenship, its broad scope means it also risks incurring wider opposition, say analysts.

“The citizenship issue risks becoming the biggest challenge in Kuwait, more even than the suspension of parliament,” says Ulrichsen.

The Kuwaiti analyst sees the citizenship move as not explicitly politically motivated, but that it may over time inveigle regime supporters who are seen as more likely to marry people from outside Kuwait.

The citizenship issue risks becoming the biggest challenge in Kuwait, more even than the suspension of parliament

Kuwait’s political gaze is not just turned inward. Relations with its neighbours have also come into view recently, most notably with Iraq, with whom a dispute over a joint waterway has reignited.

A group of Iraqi politicians have claimed that a bilateral agreement from 2012 regulating navigation in the 120-kilometre-long Khor Abdullah channel separating the two countries infringes on Iraqi sovereignty. They have persuaded the Supreme Court in Baghdad to rule that approval of the scheme by the country’s parliament failed to meet constitutional requirements.

Iraqis have more recently accused Kuwaiti vessels of entering Iraq’s waters, ignoring Iraqi Navy requests for their withdrawal. Kuwait and its GCC partners have signalled their anger at this expression of Iraqi nationalist sentiment. Officials are hoping it does not escalate further, but if it does become an issue around which Iraqi political factions unite, Kuwait’s achievement in building a lasting understanding with Baghdad may be under threat – just three years after Iraq concluded its UN-instituted financial compensations relating to the occupation of Kuwait in 1990.

For now, the Kuwaiti approach is to dial down the hostility and let diplomacy take its course, however renewed friction with its large neighbour is not a prospect that will fill Kuwait’s leadership with joy.

Domestically, however, Sheikh Meshal may have reason to feel more confident. For now, he has sufficient political space to continue on his chosen path. The anticipated passing of a mortgage law in coming months would be one more signal to the public that his decisions have improved their lives. That focus on delivery would go a long way to ensuring that Kuwait’s critical voices remain dimmed for a while longer.

Momentum builds in Kuwait construction

READ THE AUGUST 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Gulf heads into a new era of aviation; Maghreb’s resilience rises despite global pressures; GCC banks expand issuance amid demand

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> MAGHREB MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb pushes for stability
To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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James Gavin

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