Jordan policymakers walk tightrope
4 June 2024
Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.
Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.
The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.
In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.
“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.
For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.
But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.
Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.
Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.
Economic effects
While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.
The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.
“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe.
Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.
While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.
According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments.
“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.
In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.
Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.
“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.
“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”
External support
For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.
Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.
In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.
This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.
The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.
“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.
Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.
The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.
“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.
“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”
Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
-
-
-
-
Aecom to supervise Dubai Loop construction11 May 2026
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Iraq enters era of resilience, reform and rising risks
11 May 2026
Iraq’s projects market is at an inflection point. The country has built a sizeable and increasingly diverse projects pipeline, backed by ambitious national plans and an improving reform narrative. But according to MEED’s newly updated Iraq Projects Market report, the near-term outlook is now being tested by renewed regional volatility and persistent structural constraints at home.
Iraq is the Middle East and North Africa’s fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP, yet it remains heavily exposed to the hydrocarbons cycle. Oil and gas generate about 90% of government revenues and more than 40% of GDP, a dependency that shapes annual capital spending and the bankability of public-private partnership (PPP) deals. Earlier this year, the IMF forecast GDP growth of 3%-4%. In light of the latest regional conflict dynamics involving the US and Israel with Iran, that growth outlook is expected to soften as investor risk perceptions rise and supply chains face renewed stress.
Even so, Iraq’s projects market is not starting from a blank slate. By the end of March 2026, almost $120bn of contracts were in execution, with a further $300.4bn in the broader pipeline. The scale of that opportunity is underpinned by enduring reconstruction requirements, urgent energy-sector needs and a policy push to translate oil wealth into long-lived productive assets.
Reconstruction needs
Nearly a decade after the official end of the Islamic State conflict, Iraq’s reconstruction gap remains substantial. Estimates put the shortfall at about $88bn, reflecting the long tail of damage to housing, utilities, public buildings and transport links. Southern and central regions dominate the live pipeline, largely because they sit close to Iraq’s oil heartlands. Basra, in particular, is pivotal, anchoring major upstream activity and vital export infrastructure.
At the policy level, Iraq Vision 2030 signals a long-term ambition to diversify into tourism, agriculture, industry and digital transformation. The government’s immediate delivery vehicle is the National Development Plan (NDP) 2024-28, which commits more than $17bn a year in capital expenditure and prioritises energy, transport, housing and water infrastructure. This shift is reinforced by Iraq’s Green Growth Framework (2026), indicating that future procurement may place greater weight on efficiency, emissions reduction and climate resilience.
Macro risk
Despite policy ambition, the most immediate determinant of Iraq’s fiscal room is the oil price. A $10-a-barrel drop can reduce government revenue by an estimated $7bn-$9bn annually. Such sensitivity matters because infrastructure spending is still largely funded by the public purse. Oil price swings affect project awards, payment cycles and the government’s willingness to assume up-front capex obligations.
Iraq’s execution environment continues to be defined by bureaucratic delays, unclear land titles and opaque procurement processes. These factors can add 12-24 months to average delivery timelines. Nevertheless, there are signs of adaptation. PPP legislation is advancing, and developer-led models are gaining traction in large housing programmes. Furthermore, there is a growing reliance on international project management consultancy (PMC) firms—such as Hill International, Worley, and AtkinsRealis—to bridge capacity gaps and improve governance, cost control and scheduling.
Hydrocarbon driver
Oil and gas upstream remains the single largest driver of capital expenditure. Major developments, including the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) and Mansouriya, sit alongside a push to reduce gas flaring and expand downstream processing. The objective is to sustain export revenues while improving domestic fuel availability.
The power sector is even more urgent. Iraq faces an estimated 8-10GW generation shortfall, which keeps electricity supply at the centre of political risk. This gap is driving rapid procurement of generation capacity and grid upgrade contracts. Beyond traditional infrastructure, Iraq is also moving on digital adoption. Smart city pilots and fibre rollouts are attracting regional technology investors, while AI-enabled data centre projects are beginning to emerge.
Investment targets
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains below $3bn a year, a low figure relative to market size. The most active investors outside the oil sector include the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. To convert interest into deals, the National Investment Commission (NIC) is pursuing streamlined licensing and investor-protection reforms. A “one-stop shop” approach has reportedly reduced registration timelines for foreign investors from months to weeks in key sectors.
Investor protection mechanisms, such as access to international arbitration, are being strengthened, though enforcement remains a concern. Iraq’s three free zones—Basra, Karbala and Nineveh—offer additional incentives including tax holidays and customs exemptions, provided they can be paired with reliable utilities and bankable arrangements.
Conflict premium
The latest escalation involving the US and Israel with Iran has increased Iraq’s security risk premium. This is inflating materials costs and disrupting supply chains near eastern border zones. Even where projects are far from conflict areas, contractors are pricing in higher contingency for logistics and insurance. Iraq must also balance deep economic ties with Iran—particularly in energy—with Western investor expectations and sanctions-related compliance.
With more than 60% of its population under 25, Iraq has a potential demographic dividend, but it also faces immediate employment pressure and a shortage of skilled technical labour. Iraq’s projects market outlook for 2026 is best described as cautiously constructive. The pipeline is deep and the need is undeniable, but delivery will hinge on whether Iraq can translate plans into predictable execution. If progress on procurement and contract enforcement continues, Iraq can sustain a broad-based market that extends beyond hydrocarbons.
Click here to learn more about MEED’s newly updated Iraq Projects Market report
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16782507/main.gif -
Retal to develop project in Oman’s Sultan Haitham City
11 May 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Retal Urban Development Company has entered Oman with its first development agreement, signing a deal to build more than 2,000 residential units in Sultan Haitham City in Muscat.
In a statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) on 11 May, the company said it had signed an agreement with Oman’s Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning to develop an integrated residential community at an estimated cost of SR3bn ($823m).
The community will be developed across zones 3, 15 and 17 within Sultan Haitham City, covering a total area of 1.3 million square metres.
The project will include villas and apartments, alongside commercial and mixed-use elements and community facilities.
Retal said the development will be delivered through an off-plan sales model and is expected to take nearly nine years to complete.
The first phase of the Sultan Haitham City project includes the development of a 5 square-kilometre city centre and six of the development’s 19 planned neighbourhoods. The first phase is set for completion by 2030.
US-based architectural firm SOM unveiled masterplan proposals for Sultan Haitham City in August 2024.
The final phase of the project is expected to be completed by 2045.
> Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16781867/main.jpg -
Qiddiya seeks firms for light rail transit system
11 May 2026
Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has requested contractors to express interest in a contract to design and build the first phase of the light rail transit system at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The notice was issued on 5 May, with firms given until 20 June to submit expressions of interest.
The project, also known as the Primary Urban Axis, comprises a 22-kilometre automated, driverless rail line as part of its first phase.
The contract scope includes about 16 stations – 11 elevated and five underground – along with 8km of tunnels, viaducts and other associated structures. It covers all civil, architectural, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing works.
Stations will be located at Resort Core East Village, Grand Central Station, Anime Hub Integrated Station and Primary Urban Axis 1 & 2 Hub Station.
A subsequent phase will extend the railway network by a further 11km.
QIC is accelerating plans to develop additional assets at Qiddiya City.
Separately, QIC, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh. This follows submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package on 16 April, as previously reported by MEED.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at up to 250 kilometres per hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
Contractors are also preparing bids for a 13 May deadline for a contract covering new infrastructure works at Qiddiya Entertainment City. The scope includes two infrastructure development packages for District 0, including the construction of four event park-and-ride facilities.
QIC’s other major projects include an e-games arena, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a motorsports track, the Dragon Ball and Six Flags theme parks, and Aquarabia.
QIC officially opened the Six Flags theme park to the public in December last year.
The park covers 320,000 square metres and features 28 rides and attractions, including 10 thrill rides and 18 aimed at families and young children.
The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16779176/main.jpg -
RCRC awards $1bn Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road contract
11 May 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract for the construction of the Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project in Riyadh.
The contract was awarded to the joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (RTCC) and Turkiye’s IC Ictas.
The project stretches 12 kilometres (km) from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road in Riyadh.
The Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project is a key component of the Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.
The project includes the construction of five interchanges: Prince Bandar interchange, King Abdullah interchange, Imam Abdullah interchange, Dammam Road interchange and Al-Thumama interchange.
The latest contract marks another significant project award to the RTCC-IC Ictas joint venture by RCRC.
In June 2024, RCRC awarded an estimated SR4bn ($1bn) design-and-build contract to upgrade the Wadi Laban cable bridge in Riyadh to the joint venture of RTCC and IC Ictas.
The project aims to ease traffic congestion around the Western Ring Road in the area extending from Ibn-Hazm Road to Jeddah Road. The contract also covers the construction of an intersection at Jeddah Road.
The construction of the bridge originally began in August 1993 and was completed in 1997.
The existing bridge is 763 metres long and 35 metres wide, with two 14-metre-wide carriageways.
In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the population of Riyadh would double to 15-20 million people by 2030.
He directed government entities to work closely with the RCRC to prepare the city’s development strategy.
The RCRC’s major projects include Riyadh Metro, Riyadh Art, Sports Boulevard, King Salman International Park, Green Riyadh and several road development projects in the capital.
> Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16775717/main.jpg -
Aecom to supervise Dubai Loop construction
11 May 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
US-based Aecom has been selected for a contract to undertake design review and construction supervision services for the Dubai Loop transportation system.
The contract was tendered by Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA), which signed a construction agreement with Elon Musk-backed firm The Boring Company.
The first phase comprises a 6.4-kilometre route with four stations, linking the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Dubai Mall.
Stations will be located at DIFC 2, ICD Brookfield Place, Dubai Mall Zabeel Parking and Burj Khalifa.
The first phase is expected to cost about AED565m ($154m) and be delivered within one year of design work and other preparations being completed. Tunnelling is expected to begin in the second half of this year.
The latest update follows the appointment of Parsons Corporation to deliver programme management services for the Dubai Loop transportation system.
Next phase
The second phase will connect the Dubai World Trade Centre and DIFC with Business Bay.
The tunnels will extend up to 22km and include 19 stations.
The total cost across both phases is expected to be around AED2bn ($545m), with completion scheduled within three years.
The pilot route is expected to serve around 13,000 passengers a day, while the full route is projected to have a capacity of about 30,000 passengers a day.
The RTA and The Boring Company signed a memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of the World Governments Summit in Dubai in February last year to explore the development of the Dubai Loop transportation system.
The Dubai Loop is expected to be similar to The Boring Company’s Las Vegas Convention Centre (LVCC) Loop project. The LVCC Loop is a 2.7km underground tunnel system that connects different convention centre halls, reducing walking time across the site to about two minutes.
The LVCC Loop has been in operation since 2021. It uses Tesla Model 3 cars to carry passengers between five stations. The Boring Company began construction in November 2019 at an estimated cost of $49m.
> Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16775632/main.jpg