meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai approves metro extension to Al-Maktoum airport

    10 November 2026

    Dubai’s Executive Council has approved a project to extend the Dubai Metro’s Route 2020 to Al-Maktoum International Airport City, with passenger services scheduled to begin operations in 2031.

    Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, announced the decision following a council meeting held during the UAE Government Annual Meetings 2026.

    The rail project forms part of a package of strategic schemes worth over AED11bn ($3bn) approved by the council.

    The wider approvals include a comprehensive framework to upgrade community facilities and public services by 2040, with priority given to residential communities for UAE citizens.

    The project approval follows the procurement of detailed design work for the rail link. MEED exclusively reported in September that Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) had awarded US-based engineering consultancy Aecom the design contract for the Route 2020 extension.

    The planned extension will run for about 3 kilometres from the existing Expo 2020 terminus station to connect directly with the West Terminal of Al-Maktoum International airport. The scheme will add two new stations to the network.

    The existing Route 2020 corridor is a 15km spur that branches off the Dubai Metro Red Line at Jebel Ali station. It comprises 11.8km of elevated viaduct and 3.2km of underground track, serving five elevated and two underground stations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21301168/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt seeks to accelerate gas pipeline project with Libya

    10 November 2026

    Egypt aims to accelerate a range of energy projects with Libya, including gas pipeline links, according to a statement from the Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.

    Other projects include a scheme to refine Libyan crude in Egypt and an electricity interconnection.

    Abdelatty’s comments came in a ministry statement after a meeting with Libya’s acting oil and gas minister, Khalifa Abdulsadek, in the Libyan capital of Tripoli.

    Egypt is currently trying to address an energy squeeze that has escalated ​due to elevated global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices since the ​start of the US-Israeli war on Iran in February of this year.

    In his statement, Abdelatty called ‌for ⁠cooperation on petroleum products and the completion of projects to refine Libyan oil in Egypt and re-export ​it.

    He also said that Abdulsadek would ​visit ⁠Cairo soon to continue technical talks with Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministers.

    The ⁠statement ​did not provide ​details on costs or the status of the projects.

    Plans for new gas pipeline links with Libya are just one of several ambitious gas pipeline plans Egypt is pursuing.

    In October, the Italian oil and gas company Eni signed the main engineering, procurement, construction and drilling contracts for a project to export gas from reserves in Cyprus using a major pipeline to Egypt.

    The project includes contracts with several companies that will develop infrastructure in both Egypt and Cyprus.

    The awards included a $170m contract won by Egypt’s Petrojet for a new onshore gas pipeline in Egypt that will help transport gas to Egypt’s Damietta LNG facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21273777/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Omani company signs Kuwait drilling contract

    10 November 2026

    Oman’s MBPS has signed a drilling rig contract worth $127.3m with state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).

    Under the terms of the deal, MBPS will supply and operate three newly built 1,000-horsepower land rigs for drilling and workover operations, according to a company statement.

    The UAE-based oil field services company Adnoc Drilling is a majority shareholder in MBPS.

    The chief executive of MBPS, Salim Al-Harthy, said: “This is another important milestone for MBPS and a strong reflection of KOC’s confidence in our capabilities.

    “It further strengthens our presence in Kuwait and our commitment to delivering safe, reliable and efficient drilling and workover services across the region.”

    He : “My sincere appreciation to KOC for their continued trust, and to our MBPS team for their hard work and dedication in making this possible.”

    In October last year, KOC said it planned to spend KD1.2bn ($3.92bn) on its exploration drilling programme through 2030.

    The spending was part of a KD9.8bn budget, the company’s biggest ever, allocated for drilling and maintenance of up to 6,193 wells by the end of this decade.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21273731/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Adnoc Drilling wins $315m Kuwait offshore rig deals

    10 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) subsidiary, Adnoc Drilling, has been selected for two offshore drilling rig contracts in Kuwait with a combined maximum value of KD96.55m ($315m), according to documents published by Kuwait’s Official Gazette.

    The Higher Purchasing Committee of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has given approval for its subsidiary Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to award the contracts to the Abu Dhabi-listed drilling contractor after Adnoc Drilling submitted the lowest compliant bids.

    While the maximum combined contract value has been confirmed as KD96.55m ($315m), the individual contract values, rig identities, durations and expected commencement dates have not been disclosed.

    The approval comes as Kuwait moves to expand offshore exploration and development following a series of discoveries in its territorial waters.

    It is currently unclear how Kuwait will provide security for its planned offshore oil and gas projects in the Gulf, adding uncertainty to the outlook for these plans.

    On 5 October, KPC chief executive Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah reiterated the company’s commitment to developing three major offshore oil discoveries in the region.

    KPC initially launched the Al-Seef project to develop the three fields in February, just weeks before the US and Israel attacked Iran, triggering a regional war that has sparked a crisis in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector.

    The regional conflict has seriously disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for Kuwaiti oil.

    The war has also led to dozens of attacks on Kuwaiti oil and gas infrastructure, with at least one causing damage to a Kuwaiti offshore platform.

    This attack took place on 12 July, when a drone struck a KOC offshore drilling platform in Kuwaiti territorial waters, causing damage to the platform and injuring one worker.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21273678/main2430.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Aramco-backed firm tenders logistics hub expansion

    9 November 2026

     

    Asmo, the logistics joint venture of Saudi Aramco and DHL Supply Chain, has set a 15 November deadline for a contract to expand the logistics complex at King Salman Energy Park (Spark) in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    The logistics hub will add over 124,000 square metres (sq m) at Spark.

    Al-Khobar-based engineering firm House of Consulting Office is the project consultant.

    The tender for the expansion works comes shortly after Asmo awarded an estimated SR820m ($218m) contract to build the logistics complex’s first phase in May this year.

    The overall project will feature a 43,000 sq m, temperature-controlled Grade A warehouse; more than 3,000 sq m of offices and staff amenities; 5,300 sq m dedicated to chemicals storage; and an open yard covering about 1.2 million sq m.

    Asmo signed an agreement with Bahrain‑headquartered Arcapita Group Holdings in February to deliver the project at Spark.

    Planned for large-scale industrial use, the site is expected to incorporate advanced warehouse and building management systems, end-to-end digital connectivity, automation and robotics.

    It will also be developed in line with internationally recognised sustainability standards, featuring solar photovoltaic readiness, electric-vehicle charging infrastructure and a target of Leed Gold certification.

    The development aims to support the next stage of Saudi Arabia’s logistics and supply chain expansion.

    Under the deal structure, Arcapita will provide funding and retain ownership of the asset, while Asmo will develop the facility and then lease and operate it under a 22-year occupational lease.

    According to a statement, “the scheme will be executed via a forward-funding model, underscoring a long-term commitment to national infrastructure”.

    Asmo added that this will be its first purpose-built logistics centre and one of four strategic locations planned to anchor its nationwide logistics network, aligned with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy under Saudi Vision 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21267403/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal