meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan consolidates as deeper reforms lag

16 June 2026

 

The past 12 months have tested whether a technocratic Jordanian government installed to address the country’s creeping fiscal crisis can hold the line while the region around it convulses.

On that narrow measure, it has largely succeeded, though more by adhering to an inherited programme than by breaking new ground. The question of whether Amman can move beyond budget discipline into structural reform remains open.

The most consequential developments of the past year have spoken more to Jordan’s dependence on external capital than to any decisive shift in domestic policy.

The fiscal line

When King Abdullah II appointed Jafar Hassan prime minister in September 2024, he installed a figure who had served as his chief of staff and, earlier, as deputy prime minister for economic affairs, with a specific brief to cut public debt. The choice put fiscal credibility in the chair.

Hassan inherited a wide fiscal gap. The overall government deficit stood at 7.3% of GDP in 2024, with gross public debt at 82% of GDP and the IMF programme targeting a reduction below 80% by 2028. Growth came in at 2.6% in 2024 and is projected at 2.7% in both 2025 and 2026 – providing little support to consolidation efforts.

The deficit is narrowing – the IMF projects 6.3% of GDP in 2025 and 5.4% in 2026 – on the back of concrete revenue measures: higher taxes on electric vehicles and e-cigarettes, the deferral of a planned customs-tariff cut, and the collection of tax arrears. Losses at the National Electric Power Company (Nepco), the state-owned single buyer, were held to 1.1% of GDP in 2024, against an expected 1.3%.

Much of that 2024 performance, though, preceded Hassan’s September appointment, and the consolidation is, in that sense, the programme’s trajectory rather than a break attributable to the new government. A March 2026 directive curbing government vehicle use and freezing official foreign travel – tightened as the regional conflict strained the budget and extended through year-end – speaks to the active restraint being applied.

The discipline is real, but it is the plumbing of the public finances – revenue, tariffs, arrears, loss containment – not the structural reform of the economy.

The harder reforms

The reforms that would lift growth and create jobs have gone virtually untouched. Labour market flexibility, stronger competition, and higher female and youth participation have recurred as priorities through successive IMF reviews but have run up against public-sector privilege and entrenched interests.

The resulting stagnation shows in the numbers. Growth, projected at 2.7% through 2026, sits well short of what the Economic Modernisation Vision demands: a doubling of GDP by 2033 – implying sustained growth at roughly twice the current rate – in order to create one million jobs.

The labour market is where the failure is sharpest, and where a narrower deficit changes nothing. Unemployment among Jordanians fell to 21.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the lowest since early 2020, but barely changed from 21.4% the previous quarter.

Within that is a widening gender split: male unemployment fell a full point year on year to 17.2%, while among Jordanian women it rose to 34.8%, up 2.6 points. The modernisation plan promises the opposite – a doubling of female labour force participation from 14% to 28% by 2033, from a base among the lowest in the world.

The distance between that participation target and the worsening female jobless rate illustrates how far the structural agenda still has to travel.

Gulf capital and the Aqaba corridor

With domestic reform slow, Amman leans on external capital to meet its infrastructure needs and stimulate the economy – though even that is faltering. Foreign direct investment ran at $1.3bn in the first three quarters of 2024, or 3.3% of GDP, down from $1.6bn a year earlier, and eased further through 2025.

The most strategically significant deal of 2026 binds Jordan to a bet on regional logistics: the April signing with the UAE of a $2.3bn agreement to build the 360-kilometre Aqaba Port Railway, structured as a 50/50 joint venture.

The rail project was first signed in September 2024 and sits within a broader $5.5bn investment framework agreed in 2023. MEED understands that the first-section construction contract is now being finalised and second-section bids are under evaluation, with financial close expected in early 2027.

The Jordanian half is held by the Jordan Phosphate Mines Company, Arab Potash, the Government Investments Management Company and the Social Security Investment Fund. On the UAE side are Abu Dhabi sovereign investment platform L’Imad Holding, with Etihad Rail as the venture’s executing arm.

The line will carry around 16 million tonnes of freight a year – some 13 million tonnes of phosphate and 2.6 million tonnes of potash – from the mines at Shidiya and Ghor Al-Safi to Aqaba’s terminals.

The corridor is designed to extend north from Aqaba toward Amman, Syria and Turkey, and south to Saudi Arabia, positioning Aqaba – Jordan’s sole port – as a Red Sea logistics node at a time of acute concern over supply-chain chokepoints.

For the UAE, the northward reach is the point. Abu Dhabi has moved over the past year to control Syria’s Mediterranean coast – DP World took a 30-year, $800m concession at Tartus; AD Ports took a stake in the container terminal at Latakia – and a rail line running from the Red Sea towards the Syrian border would knit those positions into a corridor from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. For Jordan, it is inward investment, lower export costs and a potential jobs source.

Dependence on external finance is a standing caveat, however. Jordanian projects have stalled at this stage before, conflict or no conflict: the estimated $2.6bn expansion of the refinery at Zarqa, 25 kilometres northeast of the capital, has been stuck over financing since bids were received in 2021.

The planned National Water Carrier desalination scheme – targeting financial close in July 2026 at a capital cost estimated at $4.3bn – is the bellwether to watch. If that moves on timeline or terms, the rail scheme may well follow.

Near-term outlook

The next two years point to continued consolidation under the IMF programme, Gulf-backed infrastructure edging towards financial close and growth holding near 3% at best.

Hassan’s test will be to not simply hold the line his predecessors had already drawn, but to advance the structural reforms – labour market flexibility, competition, female participation – that carry a political price and that consolidation cannot substitute for.

Those reforms have stalled for a decade under governments with more room than this one. Whether Hassan’s administration can deliver what its better-placed predecessors did not is the question that will decide whether the headline growth rate ever moves.

This month’s special report on Jordan also includes:

> BANKING: Caution governs Jordanian bank lending
> POWER & WATER: Record investment drives Jordan’s utilities market
> CONSTRUCTION: Prospects improve for Levant construction 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17186711/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc secures Thailand LNG supply deal

    9 October 2026

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has secured a deal with Thailand-based energy and infrastructure company Gulf Group to supply 2 million tonnes a year of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with deliveries starting in 2027.

    The multi-year sale and purchase agreement (SPA), whose exact duration Adnoc did not disclose, builds on an initial LNG supply deal agreed between the two companies last year. The transaction was arranged through Adnoc’s integrated LNG marketing and trading platform, which was established in July within Abu Dhabi Global Market.

    The hub integrates the marketing operations of Adnoc subsidiaries Adnoc Gas and XRG with the trading activities of Adnoc Trading. It targets a combined portfolio of 47 million t/y of marketable LNG by 2035. Adnoc Trading has developed an active third-party trading portfolio over the past four years, operating from commercial offices in Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Geneva.

    ALSO READ: Adnoc signs energy agreements with Japan and South Korea

    Separately, Adnoc has secured offtake commitments covering approximately 90% of the 9.6 million-t/y capacity planned for its low-carbon Ruwais LNG project.

    In July, Adnoc signed a 15-year SPA with Japan’s Inpex Corporation for the supply of up to 1 million t/y from Ruwais. That contract marked Adnoc’s third long-term Ruwais supply agreement with a Japanese buyer, following deals with Osaka Gas and Mitsui & Co in March and April 2025, respectively. Together, the agreements with the three Japanese firms account for 2.4 million t/y – one-quarter of the terminal’s total capacity, which will be delivered across two 4.8 million-t/y liquefaction trains.

    Adnoc has also secured long-term Ruwais LNG supply agreements with Malaysia’s Petronas, Germany’s EnBW Energie Baden-Wurttemberg and SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe), China’s ENN Natural Gas, UK-based Shell and Indian Oil Corporation.

    Currently under construction in Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi, the facility is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2028. Its commissioning will more than double Adnoc’s LNG production capacity to approximately 15 million t/y.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20421415/main4048.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Fibrex wins $217m Abu Dhabi Seamont residences contract

    9 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi-based contractor Fibrex Construction Group has won an AED800m ($217m) contract to build the Seamont Autograph Collection Residences project, located on Al-Reem Island in the UAE capital.

    Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer Royal Development Holding, a subsidiary of Emirates Stallion Group, and local firm Saas Properties awarded the contract.

    The development comprises two 22-storey towers offering 497 residences, ranging from one- to four-bedroom apartments.

    The construction programme is scheduled to run for 27 months, with completion due in December 2028.

    Fibrex will begin mobilisation immediately, following the completion of enabling works this month, which were undertaken by Sharjah-based Swiss Pro Foundations.

    Dubai-based architectural firm Dewan Architects & Engineers is the project consultant.

    The contract marks another major win for the contractor. Last year, Dubai-based developer Nakheel awarded Fibrex a AED2.6bn ($708m) contract to build the Bay Villas project at Dubai Islands.

    That contract includes the construction of 636 villas.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20420509/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai picks contractor for Al-Maktoum airport terminal

    9 October 2026

     

    Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP) has selected a contractor for an estimated AED10bn ($2.7bn) substructure package for the West Terminal, as part of the first phase of the $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport.

    A joint venture of Beijing-headquartered China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and Abu Dhabi-based Tristar Engineering & Construction will execute the contract.

    According to a description on DAEP’s website, the expanded airport’s West Terminal will be a seven-level facility spanning 800,000 square metres, with annual capacity for 45 million passengers.

    The terminal will be the second of three planned terminals at Al-Maktoum International airport. It will connect to the airside via a 14-station automated people-mover (APM) system.

    In July, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded an estimated $1.5bn contract to a joint venture of Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation and Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro for the APM system.

    The APM will run beneath the apron and terminal areas, using multiple tracks to transport passengers between terminals and concourses. Four underground stations are planned in the first phase, while the full airport development is expected to include 14 stations.

    The latest awards form part of a wider programme of contracts recently signed by DAEP, covering enabling works, the second runway, initial structural foundations for passenger terminals and concourse substructures.

    Upcoming awards

    In June 2026, DAEP said it will award construction contracts worth over AED55bn ($15bn) for Al-Maktoum International airport by the end of the year.

    At the time, DAEP said the planned awards included substructure works for the West Terminal, the fourth aircraft concourse and the baggage-handling system. The programme also included superstructure works for the West Terminal and the first, second and third aircraft concourses.

    The packages are expected to include long-span structural frameworks for buildings covering about 1.5 million square metres, infrastructure works for the southern airfield area, and power-generation and district-cooling plants supporting the construction programme.

    DAEP also plans to award façade and roofing packages in 2026.

    The Dubai Government approved updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April 2024. In September 2024, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as lead masterplanning and design consultants for the Al-Maktoum International airport expansion.

    Construction of the airport is planned in three phases. Once complete, the airport will cover 70 square kilometres south of Dubai and include five parallel runways and 430 aircraft gates.

    It will be five times the size of Dubai International airport and is planned to have a passenger-handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year – the largest in the world. For cargo, it is planned to have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20417755/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Nakheel awards Dubai Islands marine works contract

    9 October 2026

    Dubai-based developer Nakheel, part of Dubai Holding Real Estate, has awarded local firm Mar Marine & Building Contracting a contract for marine and beach works on Island B at Dubai Islands.

    The scope includes constructing breakwaters, removing existing rock revetments and forming a new 320-metre beach near the Bay Villas development.

    The contractor will also refurbish existing beach areas and undertake remedial works along approximately 3 kilometres of the island’s western shoreline.

    The works are scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of 2027.

    The package supports the Bay Villas project, which comprises 636 villas and townhouses on Island B. Nakheel awarded Fibrex Contracting an AED2.6bn ($708m) construction contract for the residential development in August 2025.

    The marine works award follows Nakheel’s AED527m primary infrastructure and utilities contract for Island B, which was awarded to Al-Nasr Contracting Company in April 2026.

    In September, Nakheel awarded a main construction contract worth more than AED800m ($218m) for phases one and three of Bay Grove Residences at Dubai Islands. The contract was awarded to local firm Metac General Contracting Company.

    The contract covers the construction of 537 apartments, comprising one- to four-bedroom units, across seven residential buildings. Phase one includes 296 units in four buildings, while phase three comprises 241 units across three buildings.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20418469/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq refinery project given regional approval

    9 October 2026

    Plans to establish a 70,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) refinery in the Iraqi town of Qayyarah have been approved by the Nineveh Provincial Council, which has called for the project to be referred to Iraq’s Council of Ministers. The council also recommended that Duhok-based Karband Company, an industrial manufacturer of asphalt products and lubricating oils, be involved in the project.

    The council’s vote follows a meeting held in September between Iraq’s Oil Ministry and Angola’s Sonangol on potentially jointly developing the Qayyarah refinery.

    The planned refinery would allow more of the crude produced in Qayyarah to be processed locally, increasing supplies of petroleum products and reducing the need to transport locally produced crude south for export via the Strait of Hormuz.

    Iraq awarded the Qayyarah oil field to Sonangol in its second licensing round in 2009, with an initial target of around 120,000 b/d.

    A new upstream expansion phase began in January 2025, when Sonangol contracted the Iraqi Drilling Company to drill 10 wells, with an option for three additional appraisal wells.

    An existing refinery in Qayyarah, built in 1955, has a capacity of 20,000 b/d.

    Progress on the new facility has stalled in recent years, with little movement since 2021, when Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding with Sweden’s SEAB and Turkiye’s Limak on developing the refinery.

    Previously, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said the project would include modern units and complex refining technology to produce products meeting Euro 5 standards

    The scope of the project is expected to include:

    • Processing units
    • Storage tanks
    • Distillation units
    • Associated facilities

    The project was first announced in 2018 and has encountered several delays due to funding problems.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20413126/main.png
    Wil Crisp