Iraq steps up post-war revival
13 May 2024
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Recent signs of infrastructure project progress in Iraq have generated a renewed sense of optimism that certain major schemes may finally move ahead under the country’s post-war building initiatives.
Contract awards in Iraq’s construction and transport projects market reached $5bn in 2023, the highest value in the sector since 2012 and well above the average of $2.9bn over the past decade. The 2023 awards value was also a much-needed rebound from the disappointing value of just $1.4bn-worth of awards in the sector in 2022.
The sector has more generally been headed on a clear upward path, with awards averaging $3.4bn a year in the past five years (2019-23) compared to $2.4bn a year in the five years prior to that (2014-18).
Benefitting from higher oil prices and a period of relatively stable governance, Baghdad has shifted its focus to reconstructing and modernising Iraq’s deteriorating infrastructure.
The positive sentiment in the sector has been particularly buoyed by the robust 2023 budget, which outlined plans for substantial investments into transport, social infrastructure and housing initiatives.
Key infrastructure priorities for the country include advancing transport plans to capitalise on the expanding Al-Faw Port, including through the delivery of a north-to-south high-speed rail system—a proposal that has been under discussion for more than two decades.
Transport
As part of its 2023 budget, Baghdad approved 16 new projects, with an estimated value of nearly $17bn, for the development and construction of roads, bridges and overpasses in the capital.
The schemes are part of the first package of the master plan revealed in December that included 150 projects intended to modernise and expand infrastructure, address congestion, and improve access and security in central Baghdad and inside the Green Zone.
One of the first contracts to be awarded was the $55m contract to build the Al Zafaraniyah Bridge project, which the Ministry of Construction & Housing awarded to Lebanese contractor Setraco in August 2023.
In a strong positive sign for market activity, Iraq floated tender notices in February 2024 for a combined $4bn-worth of contracts to develop the Baghdad and Najaf-Karbala metro projects on a design, build, operate, maintain, finance and transfer basis.
In April 2024, the country further advanced its infrastructure plans by signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Turkiye, Qatar and the UAE to establish a framework for implementing a 1,200km-long Development Road project from Al-Faw Port to Turkiye.
While previous false starts on ambitious transport schemes such as these have eroded investor confidence in the country, there appears to be some hope that Iraq may have reached a tipping point leading to the most recent revival of projects.
One smaller, but still strategically important, transport scheme in the works is the $200m project to rehabilitate and expand Baghdad International airport, which is due to be awarded in 2025. In February, Baghdad also approved the construction of the $800m Diwaniyah International airport.
As the $5.8bn Al-Faw Grand Port masterplan – one of Iraq’s most significant ongoing projects – nears completion in 2025 after a decade of delays, it is also especially critical that new projects proceed to market.
Housing initiatives
Despite past efforts to boost supply, the housing shortfall in Iraq remains critical, with three million homes needed urgently and presenting a supply gap that is increasingly problematic for the government.
Between 2016 and 2020, Iraq reported 971 reconstruction projects, of which 718 were completed.
Most recently, Iraq broke ground on the estimated $2bn Al-Jawahiri residential city project in Abu Ghraib, west of Baghdad. It selected East China Engineering Science & Technology Company and China National Chemical Engineering Company, in collaboration with the local Shams Al Binaa, as the main contractors for the project.
The Jawahiri project is part of a programme to construct five cities across Iraq, including Babil, Karbala, Nineveh and Anbar, to fill the country's housing shortages.
Continuing the Iraq Housing Programme, which aims to build 3 million residential units in the form of low-rise buildings and townhouses nationwide, also remains pivotal for driving future construction activity.
Projects pipeline
Iraq has a total of around $86bn-worth of project work in planning and pre-execution across its construction and transport sectors. This is split roughly evenly between the sectors, at $43bn each.
It is hard to estimate how much of this value consists of work that will likely go ahead soon. Much of the value is still at an early stage, though $30bn-worth of construction projects and $41bn-worth of projects in the transport sector have on paper proceeded past study.
The immediate outlook for transport projects seems optimistic as the government continues to focus on economic revitalisation through expansive infrastructure initiatives.
These projects hold the potential to attract investors, stimulate local employment opportunities and generate significant revenues. The specific allocation of funds for vital metro and airport projects will also likely boost investor confidence.
There nevertheless remains a pressing need for major investments across other project sectors, including energy, utilities, construction and transport, to fully address infrastructural requirements and spur economic growth.
MEED's June 2024 market focus on Iraq also includes:
> Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability
> Iraq economic revival faces headwinds
> Iraq electricity sector makes slow progress
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UAE’s Opec departure fulfils multiple ends1 May 2026

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The UAE announced its withdrawal from Opec on 28 April, ending a membership that predates the country itself: Abu Dhabi joined the producer group as an emirate in 1967, four years before federation.
The exit is being presented, including by Abu Dhabi itself, as a clean strategic choice driven by energy ambition and national interest.
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Structural rift
The production case is the most structurally legible. Adnoc has invested $150bn over the past six years to raise capacity by nearly 40% to 4.85 million barrels a day (b/d), targeting 5 million b/d by 2027 – yet under Opec+, the UAE was constrained to a quota of 3.4 million b/d, leaving it pumping close to 30% below what it was capable of producing.
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Sitting uncomfortably alongside this is the expanding Saudi-UAE rift, with the two countries now diverging on Yemen, Sudan, normalisation with Israel and posture toward Iran – all while actively competing for capital, talent and regional commercial primacy.
On the day of the withdrawal, Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei told Reuters that the Opec decision was taken after a review of production policy alone, and that the UAE did not raise the issue with other countries before announcing it.
The same day, the GCC summit in Jeddah was attended by every member’s head of state except the UAE’s – with Abu Dhabi sending its foreign minister instead.
The absence of prior regional consultation and the UAE’s subsequent non-attendance at a key GCC summit is an indictment of the nadir to which the group’s internal relations have sunk over the regional response to the recent conflict.
Speaking at the Gulf Influencers Forum in Dubai on 27 April, presidential adviser Anwar Gargash described the GCC’s response to Iranian retaliation as “the weakest historically”.
UAE-US alignment
The UAE’s loss of confidence in the GCC contrasts with its aspirations for relations with the US, which Abu Dhabi has only sought to bolster since the crisis, with Minister for International Cooperation Reem Al-Hashimy stating that the UAE would “double down” on its alliance with Washington.
Despite the central US role in instigating the Iran conflict, the UAE-US alignment has become such a strong undercurrent of Emirati foreign policy – building on decades of progressive policy work – that doing otherwise is perhaps unthinkable.
And US President Donald Trump has long attacked Opec as a price-inflating cartel and linked US military support for Gulf states directly to their oil pricing behaviour. An exit from Opec by the UAE therefore yields the added bonus of aligning with a US administration that has made lower oil prices a clear policy objective.
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In this context, removing the UAE’s quota constraints will only lend further liquidity to Abu Dhabi’s strategic repositioning around AI chip and data-centre infrastructure.
Judicious timing
While the UAE’s Opec exit was not caused by the current logistical constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, they influenced the timing.
Since the UAE’s west-east oil pipeline capacity is limited to around 1.8 million b/d, it cannot physically flood the market with oil, so the near-term price implications are structurally bound.
This has blunted the impact and the potential diplomatic fallout that could have arisen from an exit at a price-sensitive time for the global energy market. The timing of the UAE’s move is therefore carefully calibrated for minimal present impact but maximum long-term gain when current conditions end.
The longer-term structural consequences for Opec are a different matter. The UAE was one of only two members, alongside Saudi Arabia, with meaningful spare capacity, and its departure leaves the group with fewer tools to manage the market.
In the wake of the UAE’s departure, both Kazakhstan and Nigeria have been flagged as candidates to follow. Opec thus faces a future of further fragmentation and ever-diminishing leverage over global energy prices.
Even as the move increases broader energy market uncertainty, however, it may reduce uncertainty for the UAE.
Opec negotiations are unpredictable and characteristically subject to the geopolitical mood. Outside of the group, Abu Dhabi’s production trajectory becomes a known quantity – gradual, measured and tied to its infrastructure rather than the outcome of the next Opec meeting.
So while the motives behind the UAE’s exit are multiple, they are mutually reinforcing. Production ambition, diverging fiscal calculi, strained bilateral relations, US alignment and a repositioning around AI all converge not as competing explanations, but as reasons that have collectively made membership dispensable.
They are also all layers of a singular decision that has been building for years – executed at a moment of reduced collateral cost into a market that is too disrupted to react.
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