Iraq’s energy sector steadily expands
15 May 2023
MEED's latest coverage on Iraq's energy projects market includes:
> PIPELINE STOPPAGE: Turkiye yet to respond to Iraqi oil request
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> OIL TRAINS: Key Iraq oil project units arriving in third quarter
> GAS: Iraq gas project on track for commissioning this year
> INVESTMENT: Total deal could lead to project boom in Iraq
> RUMAILA FIELD: BP and PetroChina prepare to award Iraq oil contract
Iraq's oil and gas projects market has steadily expanded over recent months, with the total value of the country's active oil, gas and chemical projects rising by nine per cent since the start of 2020.
As of 2 May 2023, Iraq’s active oil, gas and chemical projects were worth an estimated $143.9bn, up from $132.2bn on 7 January 2020, according to data collected by the regional project-tracking service MEED Projects.
Over the period, in nominal terms, the country’s energy project market expanded by $11.7bn, which is far larger than some of its regional competitors, but also lagging behind some key markets that are continuing to see a dramatic expansion in project activity.
In terms of energy project market expansion, Iraq has outperformed countries such as Algeria, Kuwait and Libya.
Countries that have performed far better than Iraq include Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Over the period, energy project activity has surged in Saudi Arabia, which overtook Iraq to become the region’s largest market for hydrocarbon projects in mid-2022.
Since the start of January 2020, the total value of Saudi Arabia’s active oil, gas and chemical projects has increased by $61.3bn, rising from $112.7bn to $174.1bn.
Over the same period, the total value of Egypt’s active oil, gas and chemical projects sector has expanded by $46.6bn, according to MEED Projects, rising to $136.1bn.
Nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have made ground on Iraq in terms of the size of their energy project markets, partly by taking advantage of Europe’s efforts to shift away from Russian energy imports.
They are also investing in hydrocarbon and chemical technologies that will likely see increased demand during the ongoing global energy transition, such as upstream gas production, the production of the precursors to plastics, and ammonia production.
Political uncertainty
While Iraq has seen its energy projects market steadily expand, it has missed out on the dramatic growth seen in Saudi Arabia and Egypt due to a range of factors.
A key factor that has hobbled Iraq’s expansion over recent years has been political instability and an inability to make critical policy decisions regarding the country’s economy.
In 2022, the caretaker government failed to pass a budget amid political wrangling. The interim parliament, which had limited access to funds, passed a $17bn emergency package called the Food Security and Development Bill, but was not mandated to make important decisions about major projects.
Multi-year budget
From a political perspective, there is reason to be more optimistic about Iraq’s ability to make future investment decisions due to the finalisation of a three-year budget law in March this year.
A draft budget of ID197.82tn ($152.17bn) was announced for 2023, with an agreed operational expenditure of ID150.27tn ($115.59bn), and an investment expenditure of ID47.55tn ($36.58bn).
The budget is drafted to allow it to be repeated in 2024 and 2025. It is the first time an Iraqi government has drafted a multi-year budget, having typically passed one-year budgets.
Ahead of the budget agreement, Iraq made a string of major project announcements. These include plans to revive the $8bn Nebras petrochemicals complex in Basra.
The multi-year budget should also allow for more strategic projects to pass over the coming months, allowing Iraq to adapt to changing market conditions, including the global energy transition and shifting dynamics in Europe and Asia.
Iraq has already signalled that it is looking to modernise its downstream oil sector, improving the complexity of existing refineries and building new facilities.
Gas projects
In terms of gas sector projects, progress will likely be made on existing projects to capture gas from oil fields that would otherwise be flared. More projects of this type could be announced shortly.
Iraq and its international partners are likely to prioritise these projects because they provide increased gas supplies and new revenue streams and have a positive environmental impact.
Iraq-Turkiye tensions
Although the political outlook is improved by the increased certainty regarding annual budgets, the country’s energy projects market could experience growing disruption over the coming months due to tensions between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the government of Turkiye.
At the end of March, in the wake of a ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce Court of Arbitration last month, the oil export pipeline that extends from the north of Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan was shut down.
The pipeline is a key export route for Iraq. When operating normally, it transports 400,000 barrels a day (b/d) from Iraqi Kurdistan and 70,000 b/d from the rest of Iraq.
On 4 April in Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani and the Prime Minister of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, Masrour Barzani, signed a temporary agreement designed to restart oil exports from the north of the country.
Despite this, after more than a month, oil exports via the pipeline are yet to resume.
The lengthy stoppage and lack of clarity over when exports will recommence have cast a shadow across Iraq’s oil sector, forcing oil fields in the north of the country to seal wells and stop production and putting the future of planned upstream projects in doubt.
While there remains a cause for concern regarding political stability in Iraq, the fundamentals for the country’s oil and gas sector remain sound.
Iraq's state-owned oil companies and their international partners have shown in the past that they can negotiate difficult political and security situations, and the country will likely be able to continue to steadily grow its energy projects market over the months to follow.
MEED's June 2023 special report on Iraq includes:
> GOVERNMENT: Sudani makes fitful progress as Iraq's premier
> ECONOMY: Iraq hits the spend button
> POWER: Iraq power projects make headway
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> SOLAR: Total continues 1GW Iraq solar talks
> TRANSPORT: Baghdad approves funds for metro and airport projects
Exclusive from Meed
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EY bids low for Al-Dur 3 consultancy
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Leading Mena banks give little ground in 2023
30 May 2023
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Middle East equities hold largely steady
30 May 2023
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Contractors prepare Oxagon tunnelling bids
30 May 2023
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Dewa commissions Lusaily reservoir
30 May 2023
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EY bids low for Al-Dur 3 consultancy
31 May 2023
UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young has submitted the lowest bid for the consultancy contract for Bahrain’s next independent water and power producer (IWPP) scheme Al-Dur 3.
It offered BD681,689 ($1.8m) for the contract to provide advisory services to the client for the project.
The other bidding team, headed by KPMG Fakhro, offered BD758,072 for the contract.
Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) opened the technical bids for the consultancy contract in September 2022, as MEED reported.
The Al-Dur 3 IWPP is expected to consist of a combined-cycle gas turbine plant with a capacity of 1,500MW-1,800MW and a seawater desalination plant with a capacity of approximately 50 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD).
The power generation and water desalination plants are expected to produce early power and water in the summer of 2027, with full commercial operation in summer 2028.
Al-Dur 3 will be Bahrain’s fourth independent utility scheme.
Al-Dur 2
An earlier project, the Al-Dur 2 IWPP, started full operations in June last year.
EWA selected a team led by Saudi-based utilities developer Acwa Power to develop the project in 2018.
The power generation plant is equipped with combined-cycle gas turbines and has a design capacity of 1,500MW.
The desalination plant uses seawater reverse osmosis technology and can treat up to 227,000 cubic metres of water a day.
The special project vehicle, Haya Power & Desalination Company, comprises Acwa Power, which maintains a 60 per cent share, Japan’s Mitsui with a 30 per cent holding and the local Almoayyed Contracting Group with a 10 per cent stake.
A consortium of China’s Sepco 3, Power China and France’s Sidem was selected as the project’s engineering, procurement and construction contractor, while Acwa Power subsidiary Noma is the operation and maintenance contractor.
The latest available figures show that Bahrain hit a peak capacity of 3,418MW in September 2018 against available system generation availability of 4,158MW.
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Leading Mena banks give little ground in 2023
30 May 2023
The past year has seen significant upheavals in the ranking of the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region’s largest listed banks due to a combination of market conditions, mergers, acquisitions and new listings, according to the 2023 MEED Top 100 companies list.
Weakening international investor sentiment amid higher interest rates, and concerns over the collapse of several US and Swiss banks, has perhaps been the most prominent factor in their performance.
In a trend largely independent of actual performance, which regional banks have generally improved in the 2022-23 fiscal year – both in terms of gross revenue and the bottom line – many banks have found their market values reduced, with banks in the MEED Top 100 companies list shedding more than $85bn in value.
Regional ranking
Despite this, Al-Rajhi Bank and Saudi National Bank, although temporarily diminished in overall market capitalisation, remain the top two banks in the region by value, as they were in 2022.
In third place now is QNB, having just edged ahead of First Abu Dhabi Bank in value terms. Fifth place is occupied by Kuwait Finance House, which has risen significantly in value over the past year through its full acquisition of Ahli United Bank in a share swap transaction, displacing Riyad Bank.
National Bank of Kuwait, Emirates NBD, Saudi Awwal Bank (formerly Saudi British Bank) and Alinma Bank remain in the same relative positions as last year.
Outside of the top 10 regional banks, two improvers have been Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and Mashreq Bank, both of which have seen their market capitalisation rise by about $2.5bn. In the case of Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, its performance rose after reporting a 55 per cent rise in profits in 2022 and a further 43 per cent rise in profits in the first quarter of 2023.
Mashreq Bank meanwhile announced a 270 per cent leap in its 2022 profits to $1bn, and a further 163 per cent surge in profits in the first quarter of 2023. Both banks have overtaken numerous peers in terms of equity market value.
Qatar’s Dukhan bank joined the MEED Top 100 for the first time as a newly listed bank, having joined the Qatar Stock Exchange with a direct listing in February 2023.
Several major regional banks fell short of the list, the bar for which rose significantly in 2023 to a market capitalisation of $3.7bn.
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Middle East equities hold largely steady
30 May 2023
The value of the top listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region held largely steady during the 2022-23 financial year as international investor sentiment wavered over the state of the global economy.
Viewed through the lens of the MEED Top 100, an annual ranking of the largest Mena-listed companies, the market capitalisation of the top 100 companies stands at $3.83tn, having edged up by a slight 1.6 per cent from the $3.77tn in MEED’s 2022 listing.
This almost static scenario contrasts with buoyant growth the previous year, when the region’s top stocks leapt in value by 23.4 per cent from only slightly above the $3bn mark amid higher oil prices and post-Covid growth optimism.
The relative stability of the list also belies some significant downward sliding in the value of oil and gas companies, amid lower oil price projections, and banks, amid higher interest rates and the global banking concerns following the crises at several US and Swiss institutions. The value of Saudi Aramco alone, which accounts for about 55 per cent of the list’s total value, dipped by more than $200bn.
Growth areas
The value loss has been balanced by growth in other areas, including telecommunications and real estate – the latter having been particularly supported by a strong recovery in the UAE property market. New entries have also been added to the list following a spree of high-value initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2022 and 2023.
Notwithstanding the overweighted presence of Saudi Aramco, the banking sector remains the largest contributor to the list, with 34 entities worth a combined $553bn.
There are also 16 utilities and telecoms companies worth a combined $369bn; 12 other oil and gas companies besides Saudi Aramco, worth a combined $234bn; and 21 companies in other areas of industry, including manufacturing, construction and logistics, worth a combined $206bn.
There are also 10 companies involved in services such as healthcare, retail and technology provision, worth $86bn, and six holding companies making up $270bn. The latter are led by Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC), which is valued at $234bn after several years of value growth.
IPO activity
The Mena region had an exceptionally strong 2022 for IPOs, with regional stock exchanges seeing a total of 51 listings raise $22bn, close to a quarter of the $90bn raised on equity markets worldwide, according to a report by EY. Overall, it was 143 per cent more listings and 179 per cent more value than in 2021.
While global IPO activity experienced a decline in both volume and value compared to the previous year, the Mena region remained strong. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia stand out in terms of the number and value of their recent listings.
Abu Dhabi had two record-breaking IPOs, first with Borouge in June 2022, in an offering that raised $2bn, and then with Adnoc Gas in March 2023, which raised $2.5bn.
Saudi Arabia also went on a listing spree in the fourth quarter of 2022, with seven IPOs on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) raising $4.7bn in proceeds. The largest came from Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company (Luberef), which raised $1.3bn. The Tadawul saw its first dual listing, with the UAE’s Americana Restaurants listing on both the Saudi and Abu Dhabi exchanges in December in an IPO that raised $1.8bn.
The 2023 MEED Top 100 list also incorporates the September 2022 listing of Dubai’s road toll system Salik on the Dubai Financial Market, which raised $1bn; the November 2022 listing of Saudi utility company Marafiq, which secured $897m; the November 2022 listing of Dubai’s Empower, which garnered $724m; and the March 2023 listing of Abu Dhabi’s Presight AI, which brought in $496m.
The region has largely retained its IPO momentum heading into 2023, with the first quarter seeing 10 new listings raising a total of $3.4bn. Despite a 33 per cent drop in the number of IPOs and a 14 per cent decrease in value compared to the first quarter of 2022, the region outperformed the global market, which saw a 61 per cent drop in IPO volume to 299 IPOs for the quarter, raising $21.5bn.
Uncertainties over the global economic outlook nevertheless continue to weigh on the markets in 2023, and the GDP forecasts for the Mena region are generally lower than in 2022. Despite these brakes on activity, there is optimism for an ongoing pipeline of large government-backed and private IPOs.
Major upcoming IPOs include the offering of 15 per cent of the shares of Adnoc Logistics & Services through an IPO on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange, scheduled for June 1.
The listing of Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Global Aluminium is also still on the cards, as is the potential listing of Saudi Arabia’s First Mills on the Tadawul. Abu Dhabi-based Lulu Group is also considering a dual listing in Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia.
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Contractors prepare Oxagon tunnelling bids
30 May 2023
Contractors are preparing to submit bids in June for a contract to build tunnels connecting the offshore elements of the Oxagon industrial city at Neom to the mainland.
The design-and-build contract involves digging a 6.5-metre-diameter tunnel using a tunnel boring machine (TBM) under the sea that will link the Neom Connector with the offshore elements of Oxagon port. It will house utilities including water pipelines, fibre optic cables and electricity cables.
Prospective bidders for the contract include:
- Abuljadayel Company (local)
- Bessac (France)
- Binladin Contracting (local)
- Daewoo (South Korea)
- Dogus (Turkey)
- Hassan Allam (Egypt)
- Petrojet (Egypt)
- Saudi Pan Kingdom Company (Sapac)
- Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Company (China)
- Soletanche Bachy (France)
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched Oxagon in late 2021. It will include onshore elements as well as floating structures offshore. Construction works on the 48 square-kilometre, eight-sided industrial city have already started.
Port construction
Work is also under way for the industrial city’s port, with Neom tendering a contract to complete the next phase of the Duba port expansion at Oxagon industrial city.
The prospective bidders are Belgium’s Deme with Greece’s Archirodon; Van Oord of the Netherlands with South Korea’s Hyundai Engineering & Construction; a Belgian joint venture of Jan de Nul and Besix; Netherlands-based Boskalis with France’s Soletanche Bachy; and China Harbour Engineering Company.
The tender for the project’s second phase follows the award of a contract to deliver the first phase of the port expansion. A team of Boskalis, Besix and the local Modern Building Leaders (MBL) was awarded that estimated SR3bn ($800m) contract in mid-January.
The scope of the Duba port expansion package includes excavation and dredging, revetments for channel widening, demolition, container terminal quay expansion and earthworks, in addition to the development of a flexible quay, a roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) berth and quay walls to a marine services berth and a coast guard facility.
Jacobs is the main design consultant with Moffatt & Nichol, IGO and Trent as the main subconsultants.
Port operations
Several crane and container equipment contracts have been awarded to Saudi Liebherr Company and Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Company (ZPMC).
Saudi Liebherr was awarded contracts for 10 mobile harbour cranes for SR200m.
ZPMC has been awarded contracts for 10 ship-to-shore gantry cranes, 30 electric rubber-tiered gantry cranes and six automated rail-mounted gantry cranes for over SR1bn. ZPMC will work with Siemens Europe to deliver the automation components.
An expanded Duba port is a critical component of Oxagon and the broader Neom development, as it will allow greater volumes of materials to be imported for the project. With an expected investment value of $500bn, Neom is the largest programme of construction work in the world.
Neom says the first container terminal will be operational by the beginning of 2025.
The management of Duba port was transferred from national maritime regulator Mawani to Neom in 2022.
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Dewa commissions Lusaily reservoir
30 May 2023
Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has announced that it has commissioned the third phase of its water reservoirs in the Lusaily area.
The project has a storage capacity of 60 million imperial gallons (MIG) and investments totalling AED157.4m ($42.9m).
Dewa says the project supports its efforts to enhance water security and keep pace with the increase in demand.
“We continue to strengthen our robust state-of-the-art infrastructure and adopt innovation and the latest tools for anticipating the future,” says Saeed Mohammed al-Tayer, managing director and CEO of Dewa.
“This supports the Dubai Integrated Water Resource Management Strategy 2030 and the UAE Water Security Strategy 2036. Our sound scientific planning has helped us keep pace with the growing demand for water in Dubai, according to the highest international standards.
“In 1992, Dewa’s production capacity of desalinated water was 65 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD). Today it has increased to 490MIGD,” he adds.
Dewa also confirmed its plans to commission other reservoirs in Dubai this year.
“In addition to the water reservoir in Lusaily, we are working on three other reservoir projects in Nakhali, Hassyan and Hatta. These are expected to be completed this year and next year. With the completion of these projects, the storage capacity will increase from 881MIG currently to 1,151MIG of desalinated water,” says Al-Tayer.
The local Ghantoot Gulf Contracting was awarded the contract to build the third phase of the Lusaily reservoir in 2018.
Ghantoot was also working on another major Dewa project. However, in October 2022 Dewa said it had terminated its contract with the consortium Ghantoot Transport & General Contracting and Ghantoot Gulf Contracting on its Al-Sheraa headquarters building project in Dubai.
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