Iraq’s energy sector steadily expands
15 May 2023
MEED's latest coverage on Iraq's energy projects market includes:
> PIPELINE STOPPAGE: Turkiye yet to respond to Iraqi oil request
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> OIL TRAINS: Key Iraq oil project units arriving in third quarter
> GAS: Iraq gas project on track for commissioning this year
> INVESTMENT: Total deal could lead to project boom in Iraq
> RUMAILA FIELD: BP and PetroChina prepare to award Iraq oil contract

Iraq's oil and gas projects market has steadily expanded over recent months, with the total value of the country's active oil, gas and chemical projects rising by nine per cent since the start of 2020.
As of 2 May 2023, Iraq’s active oil, gas and chemical projects were worth an estimated $143.9bn, up from $132.2bn on 7 January 2020, according to data collected by the regional project-tracking service MEED Projects.
Over the period, in nominal terms, the country’s energy project market expanded by $11.7bn, which is far larger than some of its regional competitors, but also lagging behind some key markets that are continuing to see a dramatic expansion in project activity.
In terms of energy project market expansion, Iraq has outperformed countries such as Algeria, Kuwait and Libya.
Countries that have performed far better than Iraq include Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Over the period, energy project activity has surged in Saudi Arabia, which overtook Iraq to become the region’s largest market for hydrocarbon projects in mid-2022.
Since the start of January 2020, the total value of Saudi Arabia’s active oil, gas and chemical projects has increased by $61.3bn, rising from $112.7bn to $174.1bn.
Over the same period, the total value of Egypt’s active oil, gas and chemical projects sector has expanded by $46.6bn, according to MEED Projects, rising to $136.1bn.
Nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have made ground on Iraq in terms of the size of their energy project markets, partly by taking advantage of Europe’s efforts to shift away from Russian energy imports.
They are also investing in hydrocarbon and chemical technologies that will likely see increased demand during the ongoing global energy transition, such as upstream gas production, the production of the precursors to plastics, and ammonia production.
Political uncertainty
While Iraq has seen its energy projects market steadily expand, it has missed out on the dramatic growth seen in Saudi Arabia and Egypt due to a range of factors.
A key factor that has hobbled Iraq’s expansion over recent years has been political instability and an inability to make critical policy decisions regarding the country’s economy.
In 2022, the caretaker government failed to pass a budget amid political wrangling. The interim parliament, which had limited access to funds, passed a $17bn emergency package called the Food Security and Development Bill, but was not mandated to make important decisions about major projects.
Multi-year budget
From a political perspective, there is reason to be more optimistic about Iraq’s ability to make future investment decisions due to the finalisation of a three-year budget law in March this year.
A draft budget of ID197.82tn ($152.17bn) was announced for 2023, with an agreed operational expenditure of ID150.27tn ($115.59bn), and an investment expenditure of ID47.55tn ($36.58bn).
The budget is drafted to allow it to be repeated in 2024 and 2025. It is the first time an Iraqi government has drafted a multi-year budget, having typically passed one-year budgets.
Ahead of the budget agreement, Iraq made a string of major project announcements. These include plans to revive the $8bn Nebras petrochemicals complex in Basra.
The multi-year budget should also allow for more strategic projects to pass over the coming months, allowing Iraq to adapt to changing market conditions, including the global energy transition and shifting dynamics in Europe and Asia.
Iraq has already signalled that it is looking to modernise its downstream oil sector, improving the complexity of existing refineries and building new facilities.
Gas projects
In terms of gas sector projects, progress will likely be made on existing projects to capture gas from oil fields that would otherwise be flared. More projects of this type could be announced shortly.
Iraq and its international partners are likely to prioritise these projects because they provide increased gas supplies and new revenue streams and have a positive environmental impact.
Iraq-Turkiye tensions
Although the political outlook is improved by the increased certainty regarding annual budgets, the country’s energy projects market could experience growing disruption over the coming months due to tensions between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the government of Turkiye.
At the end of March, in the wake of a ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce Court of Arbitration last month, the oil export pipeline that extends from the north of Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan was shut down.
The pipeline is a key export route for Iraq. When operating normally, it transports 400,000 barrels a day (b/d) from Iraqi Kurdistan and 70,000 b/d from the rest of Iraq.
On 4 April in Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani and the Prime Minister of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, Masrour Barzani, signed a temporary agreement designed to restart oil exports from the north of the country.
Despite this, after more than a month, oil exports via the pipeline are yet to resume.
The lengthy stoppage and lack of clarity over when exports will recommence have cast a shadow across Iraq’s oil sector, forcing oil fields in the north of the country to seal wells and stop production and putting the future of planned upstream projects in doubt.
While there remains a cause for concern regarding political stability in Iraq, the fundamentals for the country’s oil and gas sector remain sound.
Iraq's state-owned oil companies and their international partners have shown in the past that they can negotiate difficult political and security situations, and the country will likely be able to continue to steadily grow its energy projects market over the months to follow.
MEED's June 2023 special report on Iraq includes:
> GOVERNMENT: Sudani makes fitful progress as Iraq's premier
> ECONOMY: Iraq hits the spend button
> POWER: Iraq power projects make headway
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> SOLAR: Total continues 1GW Iraq solar talks
> TRANSPORT: Baghdad approves funds for metro and airport projects
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Libya signs three oil deals after licensing round17 June 2026
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US–Iran deal sets Hormuz road map17 June 2026
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
US President Donald Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, authorising the "toll-free opening" of the strait and the immediate removal of the blockade, with formal signing set for Geneva on 19 June – with vice-president JD Vance to sign for Washington and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf for Tehran in the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the text was finalised but said Tehran would not implement it until signing, with the strait staying closed in the interim.
Signing versus substance
The signing on 19 June is merely the starting line that will set in motion a partial reopening to traffic alongside a clearance operation to remove the mines laid by Tehran across key sections of the strait.
The memorandum gives Iranian forces 30 days from signing to clear the strait of mines. At the same time, the Pentagon’s estimates appear to suggest that a full minesweeping could take up to six months, even with three dedicated vessels in the region.
Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
Shipping associations are no less cautious, with the Baltic and International Maritime Council calling for verified mine-free routes before volume traffic resumes.
Insurance underwriters are likewise unlikely to relent on prices until clearance is confirmed.
Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
The distinction is legal, not rhetorical, with international maritime law barring tolls on passage through natural straits but permitting the imposition of service fees on vessels passing through territorial waters.
It is through this terminology that Iran is now consistently framing its plans to charge fees from passing vessels through the office of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority – established 5 May and since sanctioned by the US Treasury.
For the Gulf, a 60-day waiver that resolves into an Iranian (and possibly joint Omani) fee regime is a pause in Iran’s tollgate economy, not its end – and would represent a strategic concession for the US, the Gulf and the globe.
Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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