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Iraq power projects make headway

9 May 2023

 

The inefficiency of Iraq’s electricity generation and transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure is well documented and ironic, given that the country is the second-largest Opec crude oil producer and home to the world’s largest crude oil reserves.

Decades-long protracted armed conflicts have routinely targeted Iraq’s substations, while economic and political upheavals have deterred further investments within the sector.

Over the past few months, however, there have been positive indications that the tide could be turning in favour of Iraq’s plans to improve the sector’s performance and output and reduce its carbon intensity.

In February, US-headquartered GE and Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity (MoE) agreed to pursue new projects to boost the country’s electricity infrastructure.

The parties signed principles of cooperation (PoC) to explore several projects, including establishing new power plants, expanding capacity at existing facilities, and building new substations to relieve grid congestion across a range of directorates.

This is on top of the power generation and T&D projects that the US firm has delivered in Iraq since 2011.

MOE also signed five-year service agreements with Germany’s Siemens Energy for three power plants with a combined total capacity of 1GW in March. Further cooperation is expected to be finalised for conventional and renewable generation capacity of up to 11GW.

In addition, Iraq has an estimated $10bn-worth of greenfield and brownfield thermal power generation projects in various planning and procurement stages, along with some $5bn of solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects reveals.

France’s TotalEnergies is in advanced talks to develop a 1GW solar power project catering to the southern Basra region as part of its $27bn Iraq energy programme.

“Talks are … progressing positively with the government. There are discussions about contracts and doing development activities,” a source close to the project tells MEED.

Power links

Similarly, plans to link Iraq to the regional GCC, Saudi Arabia and Jordan electricity grids have made good progress in recent months.

In February, the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) confirmed the award of five contracts worth $220m for the construction of infrastructure linking the region’s electricity grid with Iraq’s.

The project involves the construction of a double circuit 400-kilovolt (kV) transmission line from the Wafra station in Kuwait to the Al-Faw station in south Iraq with a total transmission capacity of 1,800MW and a length of 295 kilometres.

To be completed within 24 months, the project’s first stage is expected to supply Iraq with 500MW of electricity.

Work on the first 150MW phase of the Iraq-Jordan power link is also understood to start this month, following the award of the contract to GE.

A third power transmission link is planned by Saudi Electricity Company and Iraq’s MoE, between Arar in northern Saudi Arabia and Yousifiyah, a township in Iraq’s Baghdad Governorate.

These projects will help alleviate Iraq’s worsening power deficit, especially in the summer months when its existing infrastructure cannot cope with demand spikes.

It could also reduce dependence on Iran, from which Iraq imports an average of 1,200MW of electricity annually to augment supply.

It is understood Baghdad accrued a debt of $1.6bn for its Iranian gas and electricity purchases between 2019 and 2021, although most of the debt, if not all, was reportedly settled in October 2022.

Setbacks

As expected in Iraq, there have been some setbacks despite the encouraging developments.

Norwegian utility developer and investor Scatec has exited the deals it signed in 2021 to develop two solar independent power projects (IPPs) with a total combined capacity of 525MW in Karbala and Iskandariya.

Reports cite that difficulties and delays in negotiations led to the firm’s decision to exit the projects, for which power-purchase agreements (PPAs) are understood to have not yet been signed.

Scatec’s partners for the project, Egypt’s Orascom and the local firm Iraqi al-Bilal, may go ahead with implementing the projects, according to an industry source. 

The start of construction work has also been delayed for the first phase of a planned 1,400MW thermal power plant in Karbala due to the lack of a financial agreement between the developer and the Iraqi government.

Baghdad-based Harlow International was selected to develop the project in February 2021. During the intervening period, it acquired land, signed a power-purchase agreement and appointed China’s Citic Construction to build the first and second phases of the planned power plant. 

Citic has agreed to co-finance the project along with Harlow International.

Decarbonisation route

In addition to an estimated 5.5GW of solar PV projects in various stages of negotiations, other plans are under way to reduce the carbon intensity of Iraq’s energy sector.

For example, the recent PoC that the Electricity Ministry signed with GE includes a proposed 10-point strategy to accelerate Iraq’s energy transition.

The plan includes a flare gas-to-power project so that Iraq can utilise gas that is currently flared to produce electricity. Maintenance, upgrades and rehabilitation of the traditional fuel fleet are also planned.

It additionally includes a combined-cycle conversion programme, which is expected to “enhance efficiency, leading to significant fuel savings and decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity”.

Notably, Iraq has tendered and awarded several plant conversion projects in recent years. In February, MOE awarded a team of China’s Dongfang Electric and China State Construction Engineering Corporation a contract to convert a simple-cycle power generation plant in Al-Zubair into a combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) facility.

Similar projects are in the procurement and execution stages. These include converting three power plants in Baghdad and two in Quds.

In 2021, MOE prequalified companies to bid for the contracts to convert two simple-cycle power plants in Diwaniya and Haidariya into CCGT facilities. Other similar projects include an existing power plant in Karbala, which has 10 units of GE’s F9E gas turbines, and another power plant in Najaf, which runs on two GE F9E units.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    On 21 April, as a fragile ceasefire held between the US and Iran, the Trump administration halted a $500m shipment in cash headed for Iraq, as it sought to clamp down on Iranian-backed Shia militias in the country. 

    That cash, derived from Iraqi oil exports and routed via the US Federal Reserve to the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), is a vital cog in Iraq’s financial arteries, enabling it to cover foreign exchange demand.

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    The recent halt in US dollar cash shipments has nevertheless added pressure to Iraq’s parallel currency market gap, says Lucila Bonilla, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.  

    “The gap between the parallel exchange rate has widened noticeably against the official peg, to around 20%,” she says.

    “Dollar demand has risen as citizens and traders seek to hedge uncertainty – dollar deposits are up, and there are reports of a notable shift in the composition of cash holdings toward dollars.”

    Ratings agencies see the US move on Iraqi dollar use as a challenge, but one that might not prove too onerous.

    “Iraq can overcome a short-term war as it has $100bn of reserves and its debt profile is bearable,” says Gilbert Hobeika, a director at Fitch Ratings.

    “But a longer-term conflict will hurt Iraq as the economy is reliant on oil revenues and government involvement, while facing at the same time risk from the US stopping delivery of US dollars.”

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    “Forming a new government that is palatable to the US could ease the pressure, though Iraq’s protracted government formation process adds uncertainty to that timeline,” says Bonilla.

    The US-Iran war is putting even more pressure on banks.

    “There are uncertainties with regard to depositors,” says Hobeika. “The public sector banks have weak management and governance structures. Financial reporting is weak, and that puts pressure on asset quality and capitalisation.”

    If the conflict lasts a long time, the government will start withdrawing funds to pay salaries and contractors.

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    State-heavy system

    Iraq’s banking system is dominated by a handful of state-owned banks with a market share of 75%-80%, and then 60-plus private banks competing for the remaining 20%-25% of the pie. 

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    “In 2019, we had a wave of Islamic banks getting bans on dealing with US dollars – reducing what had been a primary source of business.”

    A few private banks have benefitted since then, namely those with majority ownership by foreign banks such as National Bank of Iraq, a subsidiary of Capital Bank of Jordan, and Bank of Baghdad, a subsidiary of Jordan Kuwait Bank.

    “Supported by their affiliates, these banks are relatively well run compared to domestic peers and have ample capital buffers,” says Hanna.

    “They have captured a large market share of US dollar transfers thanks to their strong US correspondent banking relationships that allow them easier access to US dollars. They have seen a surge in their profitability and an increase in their deposit base.”

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    “These systems take a long time to improve, and it costs the banks too. For that reason, they have agreed with the central bank to postpone implementation to 2027/28.”

    The expectation is that the number of private Iraqi banks will shrink from 60 to about half that number by 2028.

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    “For now, the reforms address the plumbing. The structural transformation of a banking system to serve the private sector is still largely ahead.”

    Clouded outlook

    So far, Iraq’s financial system seems to have averted a worst-case scenario of large-scale deposit withdrawals related to the Iran conflict.

    Any deposit withdrawals seem to be more related to the introduction of a digital custom system ASYCUDA (Automated System for Customs Data) aimed at helping the government collect revenues, which saw a lot of traders trying to bypass the custom charges.

    “This drove some exporters or traders to source US dollars outside the banking system, in the parallel market, to avoid stricter requirements and up-front payment of customs duties. That has now eased,” says Hanna.

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    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal, which has an estimated project value of $450m, is now expected to become operational in 2027 due to delays caused by the regional war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

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    Earlier this year, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said that the terminal was on track to come online on 1 June, ahead of expected gas shortages during the summer months.

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    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Wil Crisp