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Iraq hits the spend button

11 May 2023

MEED's latest coverage on Iraq includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Sudani makes fitful progress as Iraq's premier
> POWER: Iraq power projects make headway
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> SOLAR: Total continues 1GW Iraq solar talks
> TRANSPORT: Baghdad approves funds for metro and airport projects

 

After a year of turmoil, Iraq has found itself in a better place economically in 2023, with an improved fiscal and external position on the back of high oil prices and production and two years of budget surpluses.

That is the good news. Analysts fear that this relative strength may lead the government into dangerous territory. A 2023 budget submitted to the Council of Representatives amounts to ID199tn ($153bn) of spending – an unprecedented fiscal programme for Iraq, even if oil revenues look flush.

“Iraq remains vulnerable to swings in oil prices, especially given spending pressures, the difficulty of passing meaningful budget reforms and the shallowness of domestic financing options,” says Toby Iles, head of Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings. 

“The proposed budget for 2023 pencils in large spending increases, including for sticky items such as salaries. This would increase Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price volatility.”

Previous episodes of low oil prices, in 2015-16 and 2020, quickly led to financing challenges and recourse to central bank borrowing, notes Iles.

The last time Iraq attempted to push through reforms was after the 2020 collapse in oil prices. But the recovery of prices, together with other factors, removed the immediate pressure for change and snuffed out these attempts. “One could argue that it was a wasted crisis,” says Iles.

Most of the budget is current spending – about three-quarters of it, leaving investment spending at ID49.5tn ($38bn). The budget anticipates a sizeable deficit of ID117.3tn ($89bn).

The deficit would be financed by a mix of funding from the Ministry of Finance’s account at the Central Bank of Iraq and foreign financing of investment projects. This would necessitate domestic borrowing of ID31.5tn ($24bn), according to an analysis by Ahmed Tabaqchali, chief strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund.

Cleared path for spending

The Iraqi authorities’ thinking is that now the political logjams of recent years have, for the most part, been removed, the timing is ripe to open the purse strings.

“They are sitting on $115bn of sovereign reserves, which they haven’t been able to spend for a couple of years,” says Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“And now they’ve got a fully empowered government. Soon they’re going to have a fully empowered budget. So they see it as time to splurge all the oil income that’s been built up.”

There is a logic to this. Yet the sheer scale of the financing programme is the issue here. The $153bn budget is one and a half times the last authorised budget in 2021, says Knights.

And if the budget is approved as part of a three-year programme – which remains an option – it leaves the state finances particularly vulnerable should oil prices slip.

“If you play out the numbers, you can see that if they spend at these record high levels for three years, they’ll wipe out the majority of their sovereign reserves. And they’ll be down to very close to import cover levels,” says Knights.

One particular concern is that the government intends to increase the size of the public sector by bringing hundreds of thousands of civil servants on board and paying them more. Public sector salaries and pensions are projected to account for 41 per cent of operating expenditures, according to Tabaqchali’s analysis.

In Knights’ view, this approach falls under “out populist-ing the populists, keeping people happy while the government cements its control over the military, the judiciary and intelligence services”.

Risk-fraught gambit

It may still be risky, given that Iraq struggled with the last major oil price drop in 2020. Having to cope then with the degree of public sector fixed expenses, it could be much harder to carry this off now.

Iraq’s single commodity dependence is more acute than other Middle East and North Africa (Mena) oil exporters. Oil revenue accounts for almost all of the government’s revenue and export revenue.

“This high commodity dependence is the key vulnerability, while weak governance and political risk undermine prospects for a stronger non-oil economy,” says Iles.

The undeveloped banking sector is also an important weakness, hampering non-oil development and limiting government financing options during times of fiscal deficit.

“Buoyant oil prices have improved many of Iraq’s sovereign credit metrics, but the absence of structural, economic or fiscal reforms and persistence of political risk constrain the rating (B-),” says Iles.

There will be positives that will emerge from the substantive spending programme. For one thing, there will be a substantial liquidity boost that will drive economic growth. It will also help insulate the government against protests.

For a country that, in the words of the World Bank, has suffered from a combination of corruption, weak state institutions and patronage – leaving 9 million Iraqis living below the poverty line and unemployment as high as 14 per cent – this spending will come as a soothing balm.

Currency crisis averted

Another plus is that the country’s currency crisis of previous months, which led to a shortage of dollars, appears to have been contained.

“The dollar shortages that we have seen in Iraq since late 2022 reflect governance issues and political risk, rather than any fundamental economic imbalances. The central bank’s foreign reserves are at record high levels,” says Iles.

The constraints on FX supply came from long-standing concerns about the ultimate recipients and uses of FX sold via the central bank’s daily auctions. However, notes Iles, now there are higher volumes again in the central bank’s daily auctions and the premium of the unofficial exchange rate over the official rate has narrowed to some extent, reflecting gradual adaptation to the central bank’s new procedural requirements.

If more robust and transparent procedure bed in and normalise, this will have ultimately been positive.

And yet, if the 2023 budget gets passed and Iraq commits itself to a highly expansionary three-year fiscal cycle, fresh vulnerabilities will be baked into the Iraqi economic system that could store up troubles for later generations of Iraqis to deal with. The clock is ticking.

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James Gavin

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    In late December 2023, Bahrain opened the Al-Fateh Highway project to traffic five months ahead of schedule. The highway connects key areas in Bahrain, including Manama, Mina Salman, Sitra, Muharraq, Bahrain Bay and Juffair, and opening the scheme promptly has significantly improved traffic in one of the most congested areas of the country.

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    “The lessons we learned from Al-Fateh Highway are being utilised on other projects. We are working on the Muharraq Ring Road project, and that is also going to be open for traffic well ahead of time,” says Al-Hawaj.

    Like Al-Fateh Highway, the Muharraq Ring Road project connects key commercial and residential areas in Bahrain, including North Muharraq, Diyar Al-Muharraq and Dilmunia.

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    These projects are part of Bahrain’s comprehensive approach to alleviating road traffic.

    “In 2016, we launched a study that identified projects that could help ease congestion. It proposed a multifaceted approach that covers many things, including public transport and an intelligent transport system, which introduces automation,” explains Al-Hawaj. 

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    The first two categories are the major projects. The first is building new roads, while the second is improving the existing road network, either by widening roads or upgrading intersections. 

    Then there are the other two categories. These are maintaining the existing road network – which is a challenging task with existing traffic – and a fourth category that is known as ‘quick wins’. These small, tactical-level projects can be completed quickly to ease specific traffic black spots. 

    “We have about 60 projects under implementation, valued at BD172m ($456.2m), and among these are 14 strategic projects that amount to BD117m,” says Al-Hawaj.

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    “The fourth crossing project is going to start in 2025,” says Al-Hawaj.

    Looking further ahead, more road contracts will be awarded. “There are more than BD200m of future projects approved, and they will go to tender in the coming two years,” says Al-Hawaj.

    There are more than BD200m of future projects approved, and they will go to tender in the coming two years

    One of the roads that suffers from high traffic volumes is Sheikh Jaber Ahmed Al-Sabah Highway, from Umm Al-Hassam to the Alba intersection. 

    “This is our biggest project in the future. There will be four lanes in each direction, and all the intersections will be free-flowing traffic either by underpass or flyovers. We will get rid of all the traffic lights,” says Al-Hawaj. 

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    Another upcoming major scheme is the Bahrain Northern Link Road (BNLR) project that will run along the northern coast of Manama from the Bahrain Bay area in the east to Madinat Salman in the west. Initial estimates suggest that the scheme, which will have sections onshore and offshore, could cost BD500m to deliver. 

    Together with the fourth crossing project and the Northern Muharraq Ring Road, the BNLR scheme will create a new road corridor along the northern edge of Bahrain. 

    Unlike other road projects in Bahrain, the BNLR will be delivered as a public-private partnership project. Dar Al-Handasah was selected for the project’s feasibility study in 2022. 

    Away from roads, another major area of responsibility for the Ministry of Works is sanitation. At present, 86% of premises in Bahrain are connected to the sanitation network and sewage treatment plants (STPs), and there are plans to connect the remaining 14%.

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  • Oman’s mining ambitions take a leap forward

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  • Hassan Allam wins Ramhan Island villas construction deal

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    Egyptian construction firm Hassan Allam has been awarded a construction contract to build about 321 villas at the Ramhan Island development in Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by the local firm Eagle Hills, which is led by Mohamed Alabbar, the founder and chairman of Emaar Properties.

    Located off the coast of Abu Dhabi, the Ramhan Island development spans an area of over 4 million square metres.

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    The construction industry is expected to register an annual average growth of 3.8% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, housing and renewable energy projects.

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