meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Iraq hits the spend button

11 May 2023

MEED's latest coverage on Iraq includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Sudani makes fitful progress as Iraq's premier
> POWER: Iraq power projects make headway
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> SOLAR: Total continues 1GW Iraq solar talks
> TRANSPORT: Baghdad approves funds for metro and airport projects

 

After a year of turmoil, Iraq has found itself in a better place economically in 2023, with an improved fiscal and external position on the back of high oil prices and production and two years of budget surpluses.

That is the good news. Analysts fear that this relative strength may lead the government into dangerous territory. A 2023 budget submitted to the Council of Representatives amounts to ID199tn ($153bn) of spending – an unprecedented fiscal programme for Iraq, even if oil revenues look flush.

“Iraq remains vulnerable to swings in oil prices, especially given spending pressures, the difficulty of passing meaningful budget reforms and the shallowness of domestic financing options,” says Toby Iles, head of Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings. 

“The proposed budget for 2023 pencils in large spending increases, including for sticky items such as salaries. This would increase Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price volatility.”

Previous episodes of low oil prices, in 2015-16 and 2020, quickly led to financing challenges and recourse to central bank borrowing, notes Iles.

The last time Iraq attempted to push through reforms was after the 2020 collapse in oil prices. But the recovery of prices, together with other factors, removed the immediate pressure for change and snuffed out these attempts. “One could argue that it was a wasted crisis,” says Iles.

Most of the budget is current spending – about three-quarters of it, leaving investment spending at ID49.5tn ($38bn). The budget anticipates a sizeable deficit of ID117.3tn ($89bn).

The deficit would be financed by a mix of funding from the Ministry of Finance’s account at the Central Bank of Iraq and foreign financing of investment projects. This would necessitate domestic borrowing of ID31.5tn ($24bn), according to an analysis by Ahmed Tabaqchali, chief strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund.

Cleared path for spending

The Iraqi authorities’ thinking is that now the political logjams of recent years have, for the most part, been removed, the timing is ripe to open the purse strings.

“They are sitting on $115bn of sovereign reserves, which they haven’t been able to spend for a couple of years,” says Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“And now they’ve got a fully empowered government. Soon they’re going to have a fully empowered budget. So they see it as time to splurge all the oil income that’s been built up.”

There is a logic to this. Yet the sheer scale of the financing programme is the issue here. The $153bn budget is one and a half times the last authorised budget in 2021, says Knights.

And if the budget is approved as part of a three-year programme – which remains an option – it leaves the state finances particularly vulnerable should oil prices slip.

“If you play out the numbers, you can see that if they spend at these record high levels for three years, they’ll wipe out the majority of their sovereign reserves. And they’ll be down to very close to import cover levels,” says Knights.

One particular concern is that the government intends to increase the size of the public sector by bringing hundreds of thousands of civil servants on board and paying them more. Public sector salaries and pensions are projected to account for 41 per cent of operating expenditures, according to Tabaqchali’s analysis.

In Knights’ view, this approach falls under “out populist-ing the populists, keeping people happy while the government cements its control over the military, the judiciary and intelligence services”.

Risk-fraught gambit

It may still be risky, given that Iraq struggled with the last major oil price drop in 2020. Having to cope then with the degree of public sector fixed expenses, it could be much harder to carry this off now.

Iraq’s single commodity dependence is more acute than other Middle East and North Africa (Mena) oil exporters. Oil revenue accounts for almost all of the government’s revenue and export revenue.

“This high commodity dependence is the key vulnerability, while weak governance and political risk undermine prospects for a stronger non-oil economy,” says Iles.

The undeveloped banking sector is also an important weakness, hampering non-oil development and limiting government financing options during times of fiscal deficit.

“Buoyant oil prices have improved many of Iraq’s sovereign credit metrics, but the absence of structural, economic or fiscal reforms and persistence of political risk constrain the rating (B-),” says Iles.

There will be positives that will emerge from the substantive spending programme. For one thing, there will be a substantial liquidity boost that will drive economic growth. It will also help insulate the government against protests.

For a country that, in the words of the World Bank, has suffered from a combination of corruption, weak state institutions and patronage – leaving 9 million Iraqis living below the poverty line and unemployment as high as 14 per cent – this spending will come as a soothing balm.

Currency crisis averted

Another plus is that the country’s currency crisis of previous months, which led to a shortage of dollars, appears to have been contained.

“The dollar shortages that we have seen in Iraq since late 2022 reflect governance issues and political risk, rather than any fundamental economic imbalances. The central bank’s foreign reserves are at record high levels,” says Iles.

The constraints on FX supply came from long-standing concerns about the ultimate recipients and uses of FX sold via the central bank’s daily auctions. However, notes Iles, now there are higher volumes again in the central bank’s daily auctions and the premium of the unofficial exchange rate over the official rate has narrowed to some extent, reflecting gradual adaptation to the central bank’s new procedural requirements.

If more robust and transparent procedure bed in and normalise, this will have ultimately been positive.

And yet, if the 2023 budget gets passed and Iraq commits itself to a highly expansionary three-year fiscal cycle, fresh vulnerabilities will be baked into the Iraqi economic system that could store up troubles for later generations of Iraqis to deal with. The clock is ticking.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10835821/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown

    8 September 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s water sector has recorded a sharp slowdown in contract awards this year, with $3.94bn of new contracts awarded as of early September.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, this is well below the $10.7bn recorded in 2025, $13bn in 2024 and a record $15.3bn in 2023.

    The slowdown comes as several major projects remain in the procurement process, with some yet to reach financial close or contract award, while tender deadlines for other schemes have been pushed back.

    Among the largest is the estimated $2bn Riyadh-Qassim independent water transmission pipeline. The 859-kilometre project will have a transmission capacity of 685,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d). Vision Invest was selected as the preferred bidder last December; however, more than eight months later, an official developer’s agreement has not yet been signed.

    Similarly, the Arana and Hadda independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) projects have yet to reach the financial close originally targeted for the second quarter. The two schemes will provide a combined treatment capacity of 350,000 cm/d.

    Delays extend further down the procurement pipeline. The latest developer bid deadline for the estimated $150m Riyadh East ISTP is 29 September, almost a year after the request for proposals (RFP) was issued in October 2025.

    Procurement for the main contracts for the Jubail-Buraidah and Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca independent water transmission system projects could also slip into 2027, amid delivery-model changes by Water Transmission Company.

    New awards

    The market received a boost in September when Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) announced it had signed a SR1.3bn ($347m) deal with a Saudi-Chinese consortium for package 10 of its long-term operations and maintenance programme.

    The consortium – comprising China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology and Saudi-based Armada Holding – will rehabilitate, operate and maintain nine sewage treatment plants (STPs) with a combined design capacity of more than 337,000 cm/d. Based on the latest procurement timeline, it is unclear whether the selected consortium for package 11 will be formally announced this year. Packages 12 and 14 remain under tender while package 16 is next in line, with its RFP not expected to be issued before November.

    NWC is the second-largest awarding entity by value in 2026, accounting for $1.09bn, or about 28% of the total. Saudi Aramco is the largest, with $2.15bn, meaning the two organisations account for more than 82% of awards so far this year.

    Aramco’s activity has been led by two major oil field developments. In June, it awarded the $1.5bn Safaniya onshore surface facilities project: package 1 to a joint venture of Tecnimont and Consolidated Contractors Company. The package includes a water treatment and injection plant supporting upstream production.

    It also awarded the second phase of its Zuluf water treatment project to a joint venture of Almar Water Solutions and AlJomaih Energy & Water. The project will add a 308,000-cm/d treatment facility at Tanajib in the Eastern Province, supplying water for injection at the offshore Zuluf oil field.

    The concentration of awards in industrial projects this year has been notable. Against the slowdown in municipal water infrastructure procurement, much of the value awarded so far has been linked to the water requirements of oil and gas and mining developments.

    The third-largest award is the $350m Taif Ar Rjum water pipeline project, being developed by Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) in Mecca. The project will support the Ar Rjum gold mining and processing facility and is being developed under a build-own-operate-transfer model. 

    By project type, treatment projects make up the largest share of awards, at $2.85bn or about 72% of the total. Transmission projects account for $980m and cooling projects for a further $110m, while no major desalination or water storage contracts have been awarded so far this year.

    Project pipeline

    The slowdown in awards appears to reflect the timing of projects moving through procurement rather than a fundamental weakening in demand for water infrastructure.

    Saudi Arabia continues to face rising demand for desalination, wastewater treatment and water transmission as population growth and industrial expansion drive demand for water.

    Sharakat, formerly Saudi Water Partnership Company, set out the next phase of the kingdom’s water investment programme in its latest seven-year statement, published in March.

    The plan points to a significant expansion in desalination capacity. Capacity from Sharakat-procured projects is expected to increase from about 3.88 million cm/d in 2025 to roughly 7.18 million cm/d by 2031.

    The increase will be supported by seven new independent water plants (IWPs) with a combined capacity of about 2.8 million cm/d, in addition to projects already operating, under construction or in procurement.

    However, several of the planned projects have yet to move into active procurement, while others have seen their expected timelines pushed back.

    Among the schemes affected are the Ras Al-Khair, Tabuk, Shuqaiq and Jizan IWPs, which have all progressed through prequalification, but have seen changes to their expected procurement schedules.

    The largest is phase two of the Ras Al-Khair IWP, a 600,000-cm/d reverse osmosis desalination plant that has been in development for more than a decade.

    The revised schedule indicates that the $400m Al-Shuqaiq 4 IWP is expected to be the first of the seven new plants to reach commercial operation. Its main contract had been expected to be tendered later this year, but it is now understood that the first RFP will not be issued until early 2027.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19466739/main.gif
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait grants loan for GCC grid extension study

    8 September 2026

    The Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development has signed a KD200,000 ($647,000) grant agreement with the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) to finance a feasibility study on extending the Gulf power grid to electricity networks outside the GCC.

    The agreement was signed on 3 September by Ahmed Bin Ali Al-Ibrahim, CEO of the GCCIA, and Kuwait Fund acting director general Rashid Al-Bader.

    The study will assess opportunities to expand the GCC power interconnection system to neighbouring countries. It will examine their electricity requirements and the technical and economic feasibility of connecting their national grids to the Gulf network.

    The Kuwait Fund did not identify the countries or potential interconnection routes. However, it is understood that the study will identify potential phases for future expansion, determine priority projects and assess the most appropriate interconnection options based on technical and economic criteria.

    It will cover the proposed project’s main components, costs, implementation arrangements and expected timeframe. The study will also assess the potential economic and social benefits for GCC member states and connected countries, as well as how the GCC network would operate alongside neighbouring national grids.

    A preliminary assessment of the project’s potential environmental and social impacts will also be carried out, together with proposed mitigation measures.

    The Kuwait Fund has previously provided three loans worth a combined KD78m ($252m) to GCCIA to support expansion of the GCC power interconnection system and its connection to southern Iraq’s electricity grid.

    In August 2025, the fund announced two loans worth KD70m ($224m) for the expansion of the Gulf Power Interconnection Project. The financing included support for the Al-Wafra 400kV substation and infrastructure connecting Kuwait’s grid with Iraq. 

    The Al-Wafra substation facilitates electricity exchanges and enables Kuwait to access surplus power available through the GCC interconnection system.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19461053/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Chinese firm to set up $300m anode facility in the UAE

    8 September 2026

    Beijing-headquartered Sunstone Development has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the UAE Ministry of Investment to develop an anode production facility in the UAE, with an estimated investment of about $300m.

    The MoU follows Sunstone’s December 2025 joint-venture agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) to build the project.

    Upon completion, the plant is expected to replace most of EGA’s current anode imports and support the UAE’s ambition to become one of a limited number of global anode-exporting countries, aligning with the Make It In The Emirates initiative and Operation 300bn.

    The ministry said the agreement reflects its role in helping strategic investors navigate the UAE’s investment ecosystem and convert commitments into long-term operations, in line with the National Investment Strategy 2031.

    By localising a key stage in the aluminium value chain, the facility will reduce reliance on imported anodes, enhance the competitiveness of the UAE aluminium sector and support wider economic diversification.

    The Ministry of Investment and Sunstone will establish a joint working group, chaired by the ministry, to oversee project delivery.

    The project is expected to create skilled employment opportunities for UAE nationals and residents, while strengthening domestic manufacturing capacity and industrial capabilities.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19461120/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Riyadh tenders Expo 2030 Souq areas package

    8 September 2026

     

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), responsible for delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has tendered a contract to deliver the Souq areas within the Expo site.

    The tender was floated on 30 July, with a submission deadline of 9 October.

    The Souq areas are divided into five distinct precincts, with a total development area of about 300,000 square metres (sq m).

    The scope includes the five precincts and their associated vertical elements, infrastructure and public realm works. 

    The precincts comprise:

    • Precinct 1 – The Icon: 41,417 sq m
    • Precinct 2 – Place & Planet: 62,306 sq m 
    • Precinct 3 – Culture of Wisdom: 67,112 sq m  
    • Precinct 4 – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: 45,967 sq m  
    • Precinct 5 – Adaptation & Innovation: 82,358 sq m

    The package will interface with three public parks. It will also tie into the Natural Corridor, including bridges.

    The Souq areas will form a mixed-use destination at the centre of Expo 2030 Riyadh, providing a central connection between the site’s iconic and thematic assets.

    The development will include rented and partnership pavilions, alongside a range of food and beverage, retail and visitor-experience offerings.

    Site progress

    Construction activity at the Expo site is accelerating, with Riyadh moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across the programme.

    Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) awarded a design-and-build contract for the construction of a new metro station catering to the Expo 2030 site.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site to local firm Alyamama Company.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners.

    That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, and electric vehicle charging stations.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to landmarks within Riyadh.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19457171/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Powering the next chapter with nuclear energy

    8 September 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Nuclear energy is increasingly being viewed as essential around the world. It offers a non-CO2-emitting, steady baseload at a time when governments have made net-zero commitments. 

    In the Gulf, the UAE has spent the past 15 years building the Middle East’s first commercial nuclear plant, now supplying about a quarter of the country’s electricity. What is new is the breadth of ambition beyond Abu Dhabi. The civil nuclear cooperation deal signed between Saudi Arabia and the US in July is the most significant step in the kingdom’s nuclear programme for several years, and it lands as the region moves decisively towards atomic power.

    The logic is clear. Electricity demand from industry, desalination and digital infrastructure is climbing, and governments want reliable low-carbon supply to meet it. Saudi Arabia is targeting up to 17GW of nuclear capacity by 2040. Its first plant at Khor Duwaiheen, comprising two 1.4GW reactors, represents only about a sixth of that goal, which points to a programme rather than a one-off.

    What is new is the breadth of ambition beyond Abu Dhabi

    The opportunity extends well beyond reactors. The UAE’s nuclear programme shows the scale of the economic impact. More than 2,000 local firms secured contracts worth over $6.7bn supporting construction, operations and maintenance. 

    Saudi Arabia’s ambitions reach further still, into small modular reactors, domestic uranium and elements of the fuel cycle. At the same time, Bahrain is studying a modular plant to power its industrial base, and Egypt’s 4.8GW El-Dabaa project is already under construction, with first generation expected in 2028.

    For contractors, engineers and financiers, this is the beginning of a projects market that will unfold over decades. The reactor awards will grab the headlines, but the supporting ecosystem, from regulation and fuel supply to workforce development, is where much of the value lies.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19461185/main.gif
    Colin Foreman