meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Iraq hits the spend button

11 May 2023

MEED's latest coverage on Iraq includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Sudani makes fitful progress as Iraq's premier
> POWER: Iraq power projects make headway
> UPSTREAM DEVELOPERS: No place like Iraq for international oil firms
> CHEMICALS: Iraq continues technical studies for $8bn chemical project
> SOLAR: Total continues 1GW Iraq solar talks
> TRANSPORT: Baghdad approves funds for metro and airport projects

 

After a year of turmoil, Iraq has found itself in a better place economically in 2023, with an improved fiscal and external position on the back of high oil prices and production and two years of budget surpluses.

That is the good news. Analysts fear that this relative strength may lead the government into dangerous territory. A 2023 budget submitted to the Council of Representatives amounts to ID199tn ($153bn) of spending – an unprecedented fiscal programme for Iraq, even if oil revenues look flush.

“Iraq remains vulnerable to swings in oil prices, especially given spending pressures, the difficulty of passing meaningful budget reforms and the shallowness of domestic financing options,” says Toby Iles, head of Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings. 

“The proposed budget for 2023 pencils in large spending increases, including for sticky items such as salaries. This would increase Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price volatility.”

Previous episodes of low oil prices, in 2015-16 and 2020, quickly led to financing challenges and recourse to central bank borrowing, notes Iles.

The last time Iraq attempted to push through reforms was after the 2020 collapse in oil prices. But the recovery of prices, together with other factors, removed the immediate pressure for change and snuffed out these attempts. “One could argue that it was a wasted crisis,” says Iles.

Most of the budget is current spending – about three-quarters of it, leaving investment spending at ID49.5tn ($38bn). The budget anticipates a sizeable deficit of ID117.3tn ($89bn).

The deficit would be financed by a mix of funding from the Ministry of Finance’s account at the Central Bank of Iraq and foreign financing of investment projects. This would necessitate domestic borrowing of ID31.5tn ($24bn), according to an analysis by Ahmed Tabaqchali, chief strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund.

Cleared path for spending

The Iraqi authorities’ thinking is that now the political logjams of recent years have, for the most part, been removed, the timing is ripe to open the purse strings.

“They are sitting on $115bn of sovereign reserves, which they haven’t been able to spend for a couple of years,” says Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“And now they’ve got a fully empowered government. Soon they’re going to have a fully empowered budget. So they see it as time to splurge all the oil income that’s been built up.”

There is a logic to this. Yet the sheer scale of the financing programme is the issue here. The $153bn budget is one and a half times the last authorised budget in 2021, says Knights.

And if the budget is approved as part of a three-year programme – which remains an option – it leaves the state finances particularly vulnerable should oil prices slip.

“If you play out the numbers, you can see that if they spend at these record high levels for three years, they’ll wipe out the majority of their sovereign reserves. And they’ll be down to very close to import cover levels,” says Knights.

One particular concern is that the government intends to increase the size of the public sector by bringing hundreds of thousands of civil servants on board and paying them more. Public sector salaries and pensions are projected to account for 41 per cent of operating expenditures, according to Tabaqchali’s analysis.

In Knights’ view, this approach falls under “out populist-ing the populists, keeping people happy while the government cements its control over the military, the judiciary and intelligence services”.

Risk-fraught gambit

It may still be risky, given that Iraq struggled with the last major oil price drop in 2020. Having to cope then with the degree of public sector fixed expenses, it could be much harder to carry this off now.

Iraq’s single commodity dependence is more acute than other Middle East and North Africa (Mena) oil exporters. Oil revenue accounts for almost all of the government’s revenue and export revenue.

“This high commodity dependence is the key vulnerability, while weak governance and political risk undermine prospects for a stronger non-oil economy,” says Iles.

The undeveloped banking sector is also an important weakness, hampering non-oil development and limiting government financing options during times of fiscal deficit.

“Buoyant oil prices have improved many of Iraq’s sovereign credit metrics, but the absence of structural, economic or fiscal reforms and persistence of political risk constrain the rating (B-),” says Iles.

There will be positives that will emerge from the substantive spending programme. For one thing, there will be a substantial liquidity boost that will drive economic growth. It will also help insulate the government against protests.

For a country that, in the words of the World Bank, has suffered from a combination of corruption, weak state institutions and patronage – leaving 9 million Iraqis living below the poverty line and unemployment as high as 14 per cent – this spending will come as a soothing balm.

Currency crisis averted

Another plus is that the country’s currency crisis of previous months, which led to a shortage of dollars, appears to have been contained.

“The dollar shortages that we have seen in Iraq since late 2022 reflect governance issues and political risk, rather than any fundamental economic imbalances. The central bank’s foreign reserves are at record high levels,” says Iles.

The constraints on FX supply came from long-standing concerns about the ultimate recipients and uses of FX sold via the central bank’s daily auctions. However, notes Iles, now there are higher volumes again in the central bank’s daily auctions and the premium of the unofficial exchange rate over the official rate has narrowed to some extent, reflecting gradual adaptation to the central bank’s new procedural requirements.

If more robust and transparent procedure bed in and normalise, this will have ultimately been positive.

And yet, if the 2023 budget gets passed and Iraq commits itself to a highly expansionary three-year fiscal cycle, fresh vulnerabilities will be baked into the Iraqi economic system that could store up troubles for later generations of Iraqis to deal with. The clock is ticking.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10835821/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • War casts shadow over UAE construction boom

    6 April 2026

     

    The UAE’s construction sector entered the year in a position of strength. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, contract awards reached $59bn in 2025, a record that surpassed the $53bn awarded in 2024.

    With market conditions expected to remain buoyant, 2026 was forecast to be another strong year. However, the Iran conflict that began on 28 February is set to change that narrative.

    In the short term, the construction sector proved resilient during the first weeks of the conflict. With the exception of a few sites in high-risk zones, construction activity across the UAE has largely continued uninterrupted.

    Cost pressures

    Despite continued activity on the ground, the industry is bracing for cost escalation. Brent crude prices have risen well above the $100-a-barrel mark. For the construction sector, the impact was felt most acutely on 1 April, when the UAE adjusted its domestic fuel prices.

    Diesel surged to AED4.69 a litre, up sharply from AED2.72 in March. This nearly 72% increase has immediate and far-reaching implications for project overheads, affecting heavy machinery operations, site power generation, and the transport of bulk materials such as sand, steel and cement.

    For projects signed under fixed-price contracts during the lower-inflation environment of 2024 and 2025, these increases pose a significant threat to contractor margins and potentially to overall project viability.

    Supply disruption

    These inflationary pressures are compounded by logistical challenges stemming from instability in the Strait of Hormuz. As a critical artery for regional imports, any disruption has ripple effects across the construction supply chain – particularly for long-lead items such as specialised façade systems, high-end finishing materials and key MEP components.

    While the UAE has leveraged overland routes to mitigate some of these bottlenecks, the shift is unlikely to be cost-neutral or time-neutral.

    Insurance gaps

    Legal and contractual frameworks governing projects are now under increased scrutiny. A key concern is the limitation of standard insurance policies. Many contractor all-risk and logistics policies exclude coverage for losses arising from active conflict, creating a significant gap for goods in transit.

    As freight is rerouted to alternative ports and transported over longer distances by road, insurers are becoming increasingly reluctant to provide cover for these extended journeys.

    Contractors are being advised to adopt a more disciplined approach. To recover costs linked to these disruptions, the industry is being urged to move away from the broad claims that have historically characterised regional disputes.

    Employers are unlikely to accept claims that do not clearly distinguish conflict-related impacts from pre-existing project delays. Instead, contractors must precisely document separate heads of claim, including supply chain cost increases, on-site stoppages, and new health and safety requirements.

    Market outlook

    In the longer term, the sector is in a wait-and-see phase. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on the government’s ability to manage public finances following a period of significant, unforeseen expenditure.

    The cost of defence, combined with reduced tourism revenue, lower oil exports and weaker consumer spending, has created a complex and as yet undetermined fiscal challenge.

    Although construction is likely to be used as a tool for economic stimulus once the conflict subsides, the availability of capital for major new projects remains unknown. Government spending priorities will likely shift towards resilience, including accelerated infrastructure development on the UAE’s east coast.

    Fujairah and the Sharjah enclave of Khor Fakkan – both located outside the Strait of Hormuz – are expected to play an increasingly central role in strategic infrastructure planning. Over the next decade, investment may focus on strengthening the logistics and industrial capacity of these ports to better shield the federation from future geopolitical shocks.

    For the private real estate sector, the outlook depends on whether the attacks that began on 28 February have permanently altered the UAE’s reputation as a secure, low-tax safe haven. While the conflict is testing investor confidence, the country’s operational resilience may still compare favourably with challenges in other global markets.

    If the risks are viewed as manageable, investment could rebound quickly. However, prolonged uncertainty would result in a slower recovery. By early April, warning signs had already emerged, with some developers facing cashflow pressures due to slowing sales.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16267286/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • War takes a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector

    6 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    The US and Israel’s ongoing war on Iran is taking a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector, which is likely to be felt for years, even if the war concludes relatively quickly.

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping has meant that Kuwaiti oil exports have completely stopped, forcing the country to declare force majeure last month.

    The inability to export oil has led storage facilities to reach maximum capacity and forced Kuwait to stop production completely at key oil fields.

    Resuming production from these assets is not likely to be easy, and production from these fields could take months to ramp up to normal levels even if shipping is allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz freely.

    The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has also prevented Kuwaitis from importing equipment and materials to carry out maintenance work or projects in the oil and gas sector.

    On top of the severe negative impacts caused by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s energy sector is seeing increasing damage to oil and gas facilities from Iranian strikes.

    Over the past few days, a wide range of Kuwaiti oil and gas infrastructure has been hit and damaged.

    This includes strikes on Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the biggest in the Middle East, which was attacked on 5 April, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    If future operations at the refinery are limited by damage to the facility, it could potentially lead to much lower volumes of refined products being available both on the domestic market and for export.

    On 5 April, Iran also struck facilities operated by Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC), both subsidiaries of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC).

    On the same day, the building that houses the headquarters of KPC and the country’s Oil Ministry was also hit, causing a fire.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said that assessments of the damage to the office building, as well as to the PIC and KNPC facilities, were ongoing.

    If the damage to the PIC and KNPC facilities is significant, it could further reduce Kuwait’s refining capacity and erode the country’s petrochemical production capacity.

    This, in turn, would negatively impact the oil and gas sector’s ability to generate future revenues.

    As the war continues, it is likely that damage to oil and gas infrastructure will continue to mount, further eroding the country’s ability to return quickly to normal operations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265361/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait reports war damage on oil infrastructure

    6 April 2026

    State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has said that some units have sustained significant damage following Iranian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in recent days.

    Strikes hit facilities operated by its subsidiaries Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum ​Company (KNPC).

    Strikes also hit the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry, as well as power and water desalination plants.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said: “On 5 April, 2026, the oil sector complex located in Shuwaikh, which houses the KPC building and the Ministry of Oil, was attacked by drones, resulting in a fire at the building and significant material damage.

    “Several operational facilities belonging to the corporation, both at KNPC [sites] and PIC [sites], were also subjected to similar drone attacks, leading to fires at a number of these facilities, and causing significant material damage.

    “Emergency and firefighting teams from the concerned companies, with the support of the General Fire Force, implemented the approved response plans.

    “The teams continue to work to control the fires and prevent their spread to adjacent facilities.

    “The corporation confirmed, thanks be to God, that no human casualties were recorded as a result of these attacks.”

    In a television address, Hisham Ahmed Al-Rifai, a spokesperson for the company, said that the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry were targeted at dawn on 5 April.

    He called the attack “reprehensible” and said that Iran used drones to carry it out.

    Al-Rifai said that KPC is still assessing damage to the office building and to the PIC and KNPC facilities.

    The past few days have seen significant damage dealt to a range of oil and gas infrastructure.

    On 3 April, early-morning strikes hit Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    The strikes on 3 April were the third time that the refinery had been hit since the regional conflict started.

    The refining facility is one of the largest in the Middle East and is an important source of refined products for both the domestic market and exports.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265360/main.gif
    Wil Crisp
  • Safety and security matters

    3 April 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the April issue of MEED Business Review

    Employment and investment opportunities in a low or no-tax environment have been key attractions for people and businesses located in the GCC for decades. Another crucial factor has been safety and security.

    That reputation has been tested by the missile and drone attacks that began on 28 February. Whether the GCC’s safe haven status has been damaged depends on perspective. 

    For some, the fact that attacks occurred fundamentally changes how the region is viewed. For others, the ability to absorb a serious shock, respond quickly, and keep daily life and businesses functioning demonstrates resilience.

    Any assessment of safety is also relative. Many people and businesses that relocate in the GCC do so not only for opportunity, but because of dissatisfaction elsewhere. Common reasons include limited economic prospects, high taxation, distrust in political leadership and concerns about personal safety. Even with the recent conflict, the GCC may still compare favourably for those considering these factors.

    There is no doubt that missile and drone attacks are extremely dangerous, and the fear of further incidents can linger. Even if attacks are infrequent, the uncertainty matters. It can influence personal decisions, travel advice, and the cost of insurance and risk management. These perceptions will shape the region’s attractiveness.

    Safety concerns vary. In many parts of the world, higher levels of crime are an everyday worry for residents and businesses. For some, the GCC may still feel like the better option, provided the current tensions do not become the new normal.

    How this question is answered will play an important role in how the region’s economies perform in the period ahead. If confidence returns quickly and the risk is seen as contained and manageable, investment and hiring will likely rebound faster than many expect. If uncertainty persists or escalates, the road to recovery will be a long one.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250747/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi forecast remains one of growth

    3 April 2026

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250096/main.gif
    MEED Editorial