Iraq forecast dips on lower oil prices

29 May 2025

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MEED Editorial
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  • Meraas awards Madinat Jumeirah construction deal

    30 May 2025

    Dubai-based real estate developer Meraas Holding, part of Dubai Holding, has awarded a AED300m ($82m) contract for the main construction works on Elara, which is Phase 7 of the Madinat Jumeirah Living masterplan in Dubai.

    The contract was awarded to the local firm Al-Sahel Contracting Company.

    Elara will feature three residential towers offering 234 apartments.

    Construction is expected to start immediately, and the project is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026.

    Earlier this month, Meeras awarded Bhatia General Contracting a contract to construct the fourth phase of the Nad Al-Sheba Gardens community in Dubai, worth AED690m ($188m).

    The scope of the contract covers the construction of 92 townhouses, 96 villas and two pool houses.

    In March, Meraas awarded Abu Dhabi-based Arabian Construction Company an estimated AED2bn contract ($544m) to build its Design Quarter residential project in Dubai Design District.

    The development will comprise three buildings offering over 558 residential apartments. Construction is expected to be completed in 2027.

    The UAE’s heightened real estate activity is in line with UK analytics firm GlobalData’s forecast that the construction industry in the country will register annual growth of 3.9% in 2025-27, supported by investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, oil and gas, housing, industrial and tourism projects. 

    The residential construction sector is expected to record an annual average growth rate of 2.7% in 2025-28, supported by private investments in the residential housing sector, along with government initiatives to meet rising housing demand.


    MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: UAE is poised to weather the storm
    > GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
    > BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era

    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
    > DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
    > POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
    > TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
    > DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north

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    Yasir Iqbal
  • Hydrogen’s future may not be so green

    29 May 2025

    Commentary
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
    Energy & technology editor

    Much has changed in the region’s hydrogen landscape since the first projects were launched in a flurry of excitement.

    Initially, in anticipation of demand for low-carbon fuel arising from Asia and Europe by the early 2030s, aspiring green hubs such as Egypt, Morocco, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia announced batches of large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia projects.

    Two or three of these have progressed. At Neom, the world’s largest and most ambitious green hydrogen and ammonia production plant is under construction. The $8.4bn project reached financial close in May 2023, achieved a 60% completion rate in December, and appears on track to meet the company’s 2026 target commercial operation date.

    In Oman, meanwhile, where the sultanate’s third hydrogen block land auction is ongoing, developers and downstream companies are expected to submit bids sometime this year.

    However, across the Middle East and North Africa region, most of the projects announced in the past few years remain in the concept or preliminary design stages, while the rest have not moved beyond signing the memorandums of understanding.

    With the exception of Oman, there have been few announcements on new green hydrogen projects in the region over the past 12 months.

    Shareholders have even revolted over clean hydrogen plans. Seifi Ghasemi, former CEO of Air Products, which co-owns the Neom Green Hydrogen Company, along with Saudi utility developer Acwa Power and gigaproject developer Neom, was removed from the firm’s board earlier this year, with sources citing the company shareholders’ opposition to the firm’s green hydrogen plans.

    In addition to being a co-owner, Air Products is also the main offtaker, contractor and systems integrator of the Neom green hydrogen project.

    Cost issue

    The main issue for these projects remains the cost of production, according to Michael Liebreich, managing partner at UK firm EcoPragma Capita.

    “If green ammonia is going to work anywhere, it should be [in] Oman and the GCC,” he explains. However, the London-based executive and entrepreneur has doubts about green hydrogen’s economics.

    Earlier this year, his conversations with “a number of participants in green hydrogen and ammonia projects” indicate that the costs they are able to achieve today come to around $6 a kilogram (kg), and potentially $4/kg in five years for projects coming online in the early 2030s.

    “They talk about $3/kg or $2.5/kg, but you could only get there by offering incentives such as subsidies, concessionary finance, free land, free infrastructure and offtake guarantees,” notes Liebreich.

    While the region has very cheap solar power, a $15 a megawatt-hour (MWh) solar tariff does not necessarily lead to cheap hydrogen because it is only available roughly 25% of the time. To get to 24/7, one needs batteries, and in jurisdictions like Abu Dhabi, this will take the price to roughly $50/MWh.

    Adds Liebreich: “And since you need 50kWh of power per kilogram of hydrogen, assuming an 80% efficiency, that means you have $2.50/kg just of electricity cost. No capex, no maintenance, no compression, no pipelines, nothing. So $4/kg looks like being a floor price for a long time; $3/kg would be the outside edge of achievable.”

    Meanwhile, fossil gas at around $1-1.50/kg creates an extra cost of $2.50/kg, which means that anyone producing a million tonnes of green hydrogen a year has to cover the extra cost of $2.5bn a year and find at least 15 years of guaranteed offtake to get the project built.

    “You need to secure 15 years of support to close the cost gap of $37.5bn. You need it guaranteed upfront by someone with a bullet-proof balance sheet – so that’s either a government or sovereign wealth fund.”

    The near-impossibility of exporting liquid hydrogen to Europe due to prohibitive costs and inefficiency of liquefying the hydrogen should also be considered.

    In comparison, a more feasible option could be putting ammonia on a ship to Europe, where it could benefit from a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the same price as a tonne of carbon under EU-ETS.

    According to Liebreich, under this scenario, each kilogram of green hydrogen reduces emissions by around 9kg, and the EU-ETS price today is €72 ($81)/tonne.

    “So each kilogram of green hydrogen will avoid a carbon price of $0.009 x 81, which is equal to $0.72. That closes your gap, so a tonne of green ammonia is now only $320 more than a tonne of grey, or only double the price,” Liebreich explains.

    “Look at it another way, if you want to export 1 million tonnes of hydrogen as ammonia a year into Europe, you are still looking at an annual cost gap of $1.8bn after taking the EU-ETS CBAM into account. And you need a 15-year deal, so that’s $27bn,” he notes, under the assumption one can get the hydrogen price down to $4/kg.

    Far from being rosy, Liebreich concludes that green hydrogen-wise, the region could be heading down a blind alley. “There will be almost no import market for green hydrogen or its derivatives because, in the best scenario, they will remain too expensive.”

    Bright side

    Liebreich’s dour forecast collides with the vision of most regional stakeholders that net zero by 2050 will not be possible without low-carbon, and particularly green, hydrogen and its derivatives, including green ammonia, methanol and sustainable aviation fuel.

    Mohammad Abdelqader El-Ramahi, chief green hydrogen officer at Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), for instance, told MEED in October that green hydrogen is the most important driver and enabler of net zero and decarbonisation. “Very few people know that electrification alone can address no more than 30% of our decarbonisation [needs], even if we install all sorts of renewable sources,” he said.

    Abu Dhabi intends to replicate its success in the energy sector’s previous four waves – oil and gas in the 1960s, liquefied natural gas and anti-flaring in the 1970s, renewable energy in the 2000s and nuclear energy in the 2020s – in the sector’s fifth low-carbon hydrogen wave.   

    The list of Masdar’s potential green hydrogen partners includes Ireland-headquartered Linde; France’s TotalEnergies; the UK’s BP; Austria’s Verbund; and Japan’s Mitsui, Osaka Gas, Mitsubishi Chemical, Inpex and Toyo Gas.

    Despite the slow progress and major reality check, hope proverbially springs. “Green hydrogen is the inevitable future fuel,” El-Ramahi asserted.

     

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    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Wood wins Iraq oil and gas contracts

    29 May 2025

    The UK-based engineering company Wood has been awarded a series of decarbonisation contracts with a total value of about $100m for flare gas reduction and carbon efficiency project solutions across Iraq’s largest oil fields. 

    Under the terms of the contracts, Wood will deliver brownfield engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) and modifications solutions to “enhance operational efficiency and minimise environmental impacts”, according to statement released by the company.

    In its statement, Wood said that the projects would support Iraq’s commitment to reduce gas flaring by 78% by the end of 2025. 

    Wood has already provided decarbonisation solutions for major operators in Iraq and has implemented the country’s largest flare gas reduction programme to date.

    Ellis Renforth, Wood’s president of operations for Europe, Middle East and Africa, said: “We are working in partnership with our clients to achieve Iraq’s energy ambitions and deliver a sustainable energy future for the country. 

    “Wood Iraq has extensive knowledge of our clients’ infrastructure, operations and goals, enabling them to improve operational efficiency and reduce the impact of gas flaring while maintaining critical production.” 

    The reimbursable contracts will be delivered by Wood’s team in Iraq and the UAE.

    The company said it would recruit 60 new employees to support the successful delivery of these projects. 

    Money problems

    Earlier this month, Wood announced that its chairman, Roy Franklin, would step down from the board.

    The move comes amid ongoing financial problems at the engineering company, which is working on projects worth tens of billions of dollars across the Middle East and North Africa region.

    At the end of April, Wood Group’s shares were suspended on the London Stock Exchange because the company did not publish its accounts for 2024 on time.

    Wood employs over 4,000 people in the Middle East, having increased its headcount by 500 in 2024.


    MEED’s June 2025 report on Iraq includes:

    > COMMENT: Iraq maintains its pace, for now
    > ECONOMY: Iraq’s economy faces brewing storm

    > OIL & GAS: Iraqi energy project value hits decade-high level
    > PIPELINES: Revival of Syrian oil export route could benefit Iraq
    > POWER: Iraq power sector turns a page
    > CONSTRUCTION: Iraq pours billions into housing and infrastructure projects

    > DATABANK: Iraq forecast dips on lower oil prices

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    Wil Crisp
  • BP considers Algeria lubricants plant project

    29 May 2025

     

    The UK-based oil and gas company BP is considering developing a facility in Algeria to produce products for its Castrol lubricants business, according to industry sources.

    BP has been considering developing the facility for some time, but has yet to make a final decision on whether to proceed with the project.

    One source said: “BP is continuing to evaluate the business case for developing the facility.”

    BP’s upstream business exited Algeria with the sale of its assets to Italy’s Eni in a deal announced in September 2022.

    That deal included selling its interests in the gas-producing In Amenas and In Salah concessions.

    BP’s Castrol brand serves consumers in more than 150 countries in various sectors, including automotive, marine and industrial.

    Its passenger car engine oils include Edge, Magnatec and GTX.

    Its products also include commercial vehicle engine oils, transmission fluids, metalworking and machining fluids, production fluids, and specialist greases and lubricants.

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    Wil Crisp
  • Tabreed team holds Pal Cooling acquisition talks

    29 May 2025

     

    A team comprising Engie-backed National Central Cooling Company (Tabreed) and Luxembourg-headquartered CVC is understood to be holding exclusive discussions to acquire Pal Cooling Holding (PCH), the district cooling unit of Abu Dhabi’s Multiply Group.

    According to an industry source, the team submitted a bid of $1.1bn for PCH.

    Other investment groups eyeing the deal include US-based investment firms KKR and I Squared Capital and Bahrain-based Investcorp.

    It is unclear if one-on-one discussions are under way separately with the other bidders.

    MEED contacted CVC, Multiply and Tabreed for comments.

    District cooling plants and networks deliver chilled water to cool residential and industrial buildings, offering a more economical and sustainable alternative to conventional air-conditioning systems.    

    Abu Dhabi’s IHC, the chairman of which is the UAE national security adviser and Abu Dhabi deputy ruler, Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, controls Multiply Group.

    PCH has six district cooling plants with a total installed capacity of 139,800 refrigeration tonnes.

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    Jennifer Aguinaldo