Iraq electricity sector makes slow progress

9 May 2024

Latest news from Iraq's power and water sectors:

> Iraq plans new Baiji power plant
> Decision imminent on Iraq waste-to-energy project
> Iraq discusses nuclear projects with global watchdog
Siemens Energy and SLB sign Iraq flare gas-to-power deal
PowerChina in talks for Basra desalination plant
US seeks firms for Baghdad power plant package
Iraq plans green hydrogen project at refinery
Iraq approves long-term grid expansion


 

In late March, Iraq’s Electricity Ministry struck a five-year gas supply deal with National Iranian Gas Company for up to 50 million cubic metres a day (cm/d), contingent on the needs of Iraqi power stations, in exchange for oil and gasoline.

The deal offers a lifeline to Iraq’s deteriorating electricity sector and replaces an existing agreement whereby contractual volumes were theoretically set at 70 million cm/d for summer and 45 million cm/d for winter.

The two countries signed the deal following nearly three months of longer-than-usual power outages in Iraq, and after Baghdad settled part of the multibillion-dollar debt it owes Iran. The power cuts occurred due to a drastic reduction in Irani gas supply, which dipped to 10 million cm/d and wiped out 4GW from Iraq’s grid.

The deal is a compromise for both countries. It allows Iraq some breathing space to implement projects to reduce its dependence on Iran’s gas exports – a long-running and elusive objective among Iraq’s policymakers and its allies in the GCC states and the US.

The crisis should prompt Iraq to push ahead with projects to boost domestic gas production and build solar power plants, according to the Electricity Ministry.

Supply and demand mismatch

There has been a persistent mismatch between supply and demand in Iraq’s electricity sector, with peak demand during the summer months outstripping available capacity by a sizeable margin.

In recent years, the deficit has returned during the winter when heating requirements rise.

With a few exceptions, however, the procurement process or negotiations for additional generation capacity have been proceeding slowly, leaving a gap that is typically addressed by diesel generators.

Iraq aspires to build 12,000MW of solar capacity by the end of the decade, which is nearly half its known available capacity today.

The Electricity Ministry has signed deals with several companies to develop sizeable solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity over the past two to three years in line with this objective. Yet, despite regular pronouncements that the construction phase for these projects is about to start, none have reached final investment decisions (FIDs) or the construction phase so far.

The Electricity Ministry remains the dominant client for these projects, although the National Investment Commission (NIC) has been an active participant, particularly in bilateral or public-private partnership projects.

For example, the UAE’s Masdar signed a deal to develop 2GW of solar capacity in Iraq with the NIC. The commission is also procuring a contract to develop the country’s first waste-to-energy (WTE) project in coordination with the Municipality of Baghdad, the Electricity Ministry and the Environment Ministry.

Located in the Al Nahrawan area of Baghdad Governorate, the planned WTE project will have the capacity to treat 3,000 tonnes of waste a day and generate nearly 80 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity.

Other companies that have committed to develop solar PV projects in Iraq include Power China, which has pledged to develop solar PV projects with a combined total capacity of 2GW, and France’s Total Energies, which has committed to build a 1,000MW solar farm in Artawi.

The solar project in Artawi is a small part of a $27bn package that TotalEnergies is developing in partnership with QatarEnergy. The package involves the development of a common seawater supply project and oil and gas fields in Iraq.

Awarded projects

As earlier cited, there are some exceptions to the endemic start-stop mode for Iraq’s power generation and distribution projects.

For example, Germany’s Siemens Energy and the US-based GE have ongoing projects that include retrofitting or upgrading existing gas turbine power stations or building new substations as part of agreements to help rebuild Iraq and support its goal of reducing carbon emissions.

Earlier this month, the Electricity Ministry signed a preliminary agreement with Germany’s Siemens Energy and US firm SLB, formerly Schlumberger, to explore the development of a power generation plant using flare gas.

According to Siemens Energy Middle East managing director Dietmar Siersdorfer, the planned flare gas-to-power project in southern Iraq will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and capture value from gas that would otherwise be wasted.

The planned flare gas-to-power plant could have a generation capacity of up to 2,000MW.

In January this year, China-based Oriental International is understood to have signed a contract to convert a single-cycle unit at the Baghdad South power plant complex into a combined-cycle power plant.

In April, the Electricity Ministry awarded another Chinese company, China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), a second year of operation and maintenance contracts for the Salah Al Din gas-fired power plant.

CMEC was awarded the estimated $1bn contract to build the power plant in northern Iraq in 2011. After a series of delays and challenges, including the Isis uprising, the two 630MW capacity units began operating last year.

In December last year, Siemens Energy also signed a contract to deliver five high-voltage substations on a turnkey basis in Iraq. The 400-kilovolt substations, each with a capacity of 1,500MW, will be installed in Baghdad, Diyala, Najaf, Karbala and Basra.

Similarly, the US’s preoccupation with helping wean Iraq off Iran’s gas and electricity imports has spurred projects to interconnect Iraq’s grid with its neighbour Saudi Arabia through the GCC grid and Jordan.

In October last year, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Prince Saud Bin Naif Bin Abdulaziz, inaugurated the GCC grid's Iraq connection, which had been under development for several years. The 295-kilometre power transmission network will have a total transmission capacity of 1,800MW, with an initial phase expected to supply 500MW of electricity to Iraq.

Future projects

In February this year, Electricity Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa said the government had approved funds for the long-term plans to expand the country’s power transmission and distribution network with Siemens Energy’s help.

Mousa said the ministry “received funds for long-term plans to develop the electricity sector in 2023 … the three-year budget approved in 2023 also includes funds this year and in 2025”. 

In early May, it was reported that the Electricity Ministry held discussions with Qatar’s UCC Holding to develop a 2,100MW gas-fired power plant in Baiji. The plant will replace a power station that was damaged during the war.

It is unclear if the project is part of a previous agreement between UCC Holding and NIC to develop two power plants with a capacity of 2,400MW in Iraq.

A new 2,000MW gas-fired power plant is also being proposed in Basra, which is expected to receive gas from the nearby West Qurna 1 and West Qurna 2 oil fields.

As it is, several projects are waiting for final approvals, such as the gas-fired 2,800MW Khairat independent power producer, which has yet to reach FID over two years after the contract was awarded.  

Going nuclear 

Project delays and indecision in Iraq do not appear to narrow down the options for future power generation expansion.  

In March, it was reported that senior Iraq and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials had discussed Iraq’s plans for a possible nuclear energy programme, including small modular reactors.

According to the nuclear watchdog, discussions included maintaining strict adherence to non-proliferation norms.

IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency has committed to supporting the foundations of what should be an entirely peaceful programme in Iraq.

Iraq, for its part, is considering nuclear energy to enable greater energy security and for water desalination projects as part of the country’s plans for a more sustainable future.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo
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    Al-Kamil power plant, a 280MW, gas-fired power plant in the Sharqiya region of Oman, was recently decommissioned following nearly 20 years of operations as the country’s second independent power plant.

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    Many lessons were learnt during the process that can benefit future power plant decommissioning efforts in the region.

    > Notify key stakeholders early: Key stakeholders are those that have a vested interest in the project, either through ownership of certain assets on site, such as grid connection assets, or via regulation, such as the environmental authority. Many of these stakeholders take time to respond, so notifying key stakeholders early in the process can ensure that unnecessary delays are avoided.

    > Prioritise HSSE: For any future decommissioning project, HSSE must be a top priority, and this should be the focus throughout the entire decommissioning process – at all levels of work and management. 

    The site manager at Al-Kamil installed a 24/7 closed-circuit television camera, which proved to be extremely effective in terms of monitoring progress and identifying potential HSSE issues before they became an incident. This simple and cost-effective practice should be replicated for all future decommissioning projects.

    > Appoint the environmental consultant early in the process: It is advisable to appoint an environmental consultant early in the process. The consultant is needed to coordinate activities with the local environmental authority and obtain a no-objection letter or certificate, complete an environmental management report and an update of the environmental impact assessment, which includes an environmental baseline.

    Ideally, these reports and environmental authority approvals should be completed well before any work is under way at the site. This information is also useful to potential bidders for the sale of equipment, or to contractors involved in the dismantling and demolition process.

    > Submit an environmental management plan for approval: It is unlikely that any environmental authority will provide a no-objection letter or certificate without reviewing the environmental plan. It is therefore necessary to complete the plan early, prior to informing the environmental authority. This can minimise potential delays in starting the decommissioning process. 

    As a general practice, an environmental consultant should be brought on board early in the process, ideally once the overall master plan is approved by the company.

    > Establish a proactive steering committee: This was done at Al-Kamil and proved to be effective when it came to overseeing project progress and dealing with issues as they arose. Certain members of the steering committee visited the site regularly and undertook spot HSSE inspections.

    At Al-Kamil, the overall decommissioning was relatively straightforward as the plant was in a remote area. However, decommissioning a power plant in a busier location, or when part of the power plant remains in operation, is more challenging. Under these circumstances, a steering committee is vital. 

    > Set realistic delivery and completion timelines: Decommissioning a power plant is a complex process. The initial timeline to complete the process for Al-Kamil was one year, which was the best estimate at the time as there were no benchmarks or references in Oman. However, the actual completion time turned out to be three years – longer than the approximately 2.5 years it took to build the plant, from the start of construction in early 2001 to full commercial operation in July 2003.

    Realistic delivery dates should be set for contractors, suppliers and others involved in the decommissioning process. This is likely to result in better pricing, as bidders tend to factor in higher contingencies with shorter or fast-track delivery dates. More realistic delivery dates also help management to allocate staff resources and manage the decommissioning budget. 

    Finally, realistic delivery dates help to manage owner and shareholder expectations regarding project completion.

    Given the experience with Al-Kamil, a reasonable decommissioning timeline for a power plant is probably close to the actual construction timeline for the plant involved.

    > Allow time to maximise revenues from the sale of assets: The market value for Al-Kamil’s power assets was estimated at a value significantly higher than the prevailing scrap value. This was based in part on the value of similar gas turbine units, after adjusting for age, usage and other factors that affect the net market value. However, the company realised a much lower value, even after retendering the equipment sales in an effort to get a better price.

    It appears that prices close to the market rate are only achievable if there is time to find a suitable buyer. This can take many months or even years – typically a longer time than the owners of power plants wish to take. 

    Moreover, as renewables continue to penetrate the market, there is less worldwide demand for used gas turbine units. Prevailing market supply and demand conditions also have a bearing on the sale price for secondary equipment, and this factor needs to be considered.

    If time is of the essence, then power plant owners need to accept the fact that the expected revenues will likely be on the low side, although still higher than the scrap value of the assets. 


    Main image: Picture 1: Al-Kamil power plant as constructed; Picture 2: Post decommissioning 


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