Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

10 May 2024

 

The ambitious new $17bn Iraq Development Road project, linking Basra to Turkiye’s Mersin port, puts the country’s economic trajectory on a long-term geopolitical setting that will aim to take full advantage of Iraq’s position as a key link in trade routes between Asia and the Mediterranean.

But before this vaunted plan takes root, Prime Minister Shia Al Sudani’s government faces a host of knotty economic challenges, not least a challenging fiscal position aggravated by the expansionary budget announced in 2023.

Lack of parliamentary consent has largely insulated the country from the negative impacts of that $153bn budget. That has meant large amounts of planned state spending have not been disbursed, leaving the state finances in better shape than they would have been otherwise.

Fitch Ratings expects that low execution of capital spending and limited transfers to the Kurdistan region will help limit the size of the deficit.

“We expect growth to rebound in 2024 (1.2%), driven by public spending under the expansionary three-year budget and continued recovery in non-oil GDP. We expect non-oil growth to benefit from stronger private consumption, as inflation edges down,” says Mohamed Afifi, Fitch Ratings’ primary analyst for Iraq.

Budget deficit

Even so, reduced oil revenues have impacted Iraq’s economy, turning a budget surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022 into a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023. Fitch sees the fiscal deficit widening, reaching 3.7% in 2024 as declining oil prices and Opec-imposed production cuts drive oil revenue down, while a heavier wage bill pushes expenditure.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also likely to rise in 2024-25, from 43.4% in 2023 to 48.7%, with Fitch attributing this to larger budget deficits that will be funded from borrowing and deposit drawdowns. However, these figures include some $40bn of legacy debt that Iraq faces no pressure to service.

The big concern is that the 2023-25 budget programme will add hundreds of thousands of workers to an already bloated public sector payroll, crowding out the private sector.

“We estimate that the expansionary three-year budget will hinder the private sector’s development by providing a sharp increase in the public workforce,” says Afifi.

“We estimate that the budget will add 600,000 employees, most of which are currently working under temporary contracts, to the public sector payroll. This would bring the public sector wage bill (salaries and pensions) to 25.8% of GDP by 2025, from 15% in 2022.”

As the IMF warned in a March 2024 commentary, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labour force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

In this context, urged the Fund, the Iraqi authorities should seek to enable private sector development, including through labour market reforms, modernisation of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.    

That is a hefty checklist for a country that is still facing myriad security, political and developmental challenges.

Al Sudani can at least counter the gloomier prognoses with the revival in non-oil sector growth, and lower inflation. Real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6% in 2023. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation, according to the IMF.

International reserves increased to $112bn in 2023. Fitch sees FX reserves providing payment coverage above 12 months and a substantial financial buffer until the end of 2025.

Other positives will come through increased foreign direct investment, notably from the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund allocated $3bn for Iraqi investments last year, while Qatar’s Estithmar signed a series of memorandums of understanding worth $7bn in June 2023, covering hotel, real estate and healthcare projects.

Banking reform

One area of focus for the government is its banking sector, which remains underdeveloped and largely unfit for purpose, dominated by state-owned banks with opaque finances.

As Aysegul Ozgur, head of research at Iraq-focused Rabee Securities, says, 93.7% of currency issued was outside banks in Iraq at the end of 2022.

But, says Ozgur, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is looking to strengthen financial inclusion and increase the cash inside the financial system through a series of projects.

“The salary domiciliation project of 2017 is the most prominent one among them, aiming for public sector employees to transfer their salaries to bank accounts by enabling them to receive and withdraw salaries easily through available payment channels (bank branches, ATMs and POS) and providing the ability to obtain credit facilities and bank loans by showing their salaries as collateral,” she says.

A number of other developments underscore the CBI’s concerted efforts to modernise Iraq’s financial landscape and promote economic stability.

“As a measure to control the FX flow into the banking system, the CBI now allows a limited number of banks to participate in the CBI foreign currency window and engage in US dollar transactions,” says Ozgur. “Due to the restricted number of banks permitted to engage in such activities, they benefit from an expanded market share in US dollar transactions.”

The Central Bank has also moved towards tougher oversight of the country’s 61 commercial banking institutions, made up of 54 private banks and seven state banks.

Since the CBI revised the guidelines for foreign currency transactions across borders to curb illicit financial flows in February 2023, says Ozgur, the banks that have direct correspondent banking relationships have played an active role in international money transfers and increased their commission and FX income significantly.

“The outstanding growth in current account deposits with these transfers resulted in significant growth in assets. Bank of Baghdad, National Bank of Iraq and Al-Mansour Bank are among the banks benefiting the most from these developments due to having direct correspondent banking relationships,” says Ozgur.

In February 2024, eight local commercial banks were banned from engaging in US dollar transactions, in a move to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of the greenback. This followed a visit to Baghdad by a senior US Treasury official to Baghdad.

Such moves should, over time, help restore confidence in the financial system and – crucially – help build local insinuations that are credible players in the local economy, able to facilitate Iraq’s private sector growth ambitions, whether domestically or as part of the Iraq Development Road projects.

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

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James Gavin
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    10 December 2024

     

    In late December 2023, Bahrain opened the Al-Fateh Highway project to traffic five months ahead of schedule. The highway connects key areas in Bahrain, including Manama, Mina Salman, Sitra, Muharraq, Bahrain Bay and Juffair, and opening the scheme promptly has significantly improved traffic in one of the most congested areas of the country.

    “The secret to success was implementing the project in stages, combined with excellent traffic management,” says Minister of Works Ibrahim Bin Hassan Al-Hawaj. 

    The successful completion of the Al-Fateh Highway project comes at an important time for Bahrain, as it continues to upgrade its road network. 

    “The lessons we learned from Al-Fateh Highway are being utilised on other projects. We are working on the Muharraq Ring Road project, and that is also going to be open for traffic well ahead of time,” says Al-Hawaj.

    Like Al-Fateh Highway, the Muharraq Ring Road project connects key commercial and residential areas in Bahrain, including North Muharraq, Diyar Al-Muharraq and Dilmunia.

    Multifaceted approach

    These projects are part of Bahrain’s comprehensive approach to alleviating road traffic.

    “In 2016, we launched a study that identified projects that could help ease congestion. It proposed a multifaceted approach that covers many things, including public transport and an intelligent transport system, which introduces automation,” explains Al-Hawaj. 

    “We have not implemented everything in the study, but we are working through it gradually with the Traffic Council, headed by his excellency the minister of interior, and including the Ministry of Works, Ministry of Transportation and Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning. We have regular meetings to identify challenges and then put forward suitable projects to solve them,” says Al-Hawaj. 

    The Ministry of Works is responsible for maintaining, improving and expanding the road network. Its projects are split into four categories. 

    The first two categories are the major projects. The first is building new roads, while the second is improving the existing road network, either by widening roads or upgrading intersections. 

    Then there are the other two categories. These are maintaining the existing road network – which is a challenging task with existing traffic – and a fourth category that is known as ‘quick wins’. These small, tactical-level projects can be completed quickly to ease specific traffic black spots. 

    “We have about 60 projects under implementation, valued at BD172m ($456.2m), and among these are 14 strategic projects that amount to BD117m,” says Al-Hawaj.

    Upcoming schemes

    The pipeline of projects under execution will soon be expanded with the addition of a fourth crossing connecting Busaiteen with Bahrain Bay. The Bahrain Tender Board opened prices for the contract to build the signature bridge crossing in late November. 

    “The fourth crossing project is going to start in 2025,” says Al-Hawaj.

    Looking further ahead, more road contracts will be awarded. “There are more than BD200m of future projects approved, and they will go to tender in the coming two years,” says Al-Hawaj.

    There are more than BD200m of future projects approved, and they will go to tender in the coming two years

    One of the roads that suffers from high traffic volumes is Sheikh Jaber Ahmed Al-Sabah Highway, from Umm Al-Hassam to the Alba intersection. 

    “This is our biggest project in the future. There will be four lanes in each direction, and all the intersections will be free-flowing traffic either by underpass or flyovers. We will get rid of all the traffic lights,” says Al-Hawaj. 

    The project will move into the construction phase next year with preparation works. 

    “One of the main lessons from the Al-Fateh Highway project is to free the construction zone from any services before construction starts. It will take some time to redirect the existing utilities, and then we will immediately go into construction,” says Al-Hawaj.

    Another upcoming major scheme is the Bahrain Northern Link Road (BNLR) project that will run along the northern coast of Manama from the Bahrain Bay area in the east to Madinat Salman in the west. Initial estimates suggest that the scheme, which will have sections onshore and offshore, could cost BD500m to deliver. 

    Together with the fourth crossing project and the Northern Muharraq Ring Road, the BNLR scheme will create a new road corridor along the northern edge of Bahrain. 

    Unlike other road projects in Bahrain, the BNLR will be delivered as a public-private partnership project. Dar Al-Handasah was selected for the project’s feasibility study in 2022. 

    Away from roads, another major area of responsibility for the Ministry of Works is sanitation. At present, 86% of premises in Bahrain are connected to the sanitation network and sewage treatment plants (STPs), and there are plans to connect the remaining 14%.

    STP capacity is also increasing. The capacity of Bahrain’s largest plant at Tubli is being doubled, and there is an expansion under way for the STP at Muharraq. The Sitra STP is also being upgraded, using technology from UK company Bluewater, which allows for capacity to increase without adding to the footprint of the site. 

    A greenfield project is also planned. “We have a new plant coming soon at Khalifa City,” says Al-Hawaj. 

    “We are finalising the drawings, and a tender is expected to be issued in the first quarter of 2025. We will start with 20,000 cubic metres a day, but the ultimate capacity will be 40,000 cubic metres a day.” 

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  • Oman’s mining ambitions take a leap forward

    10 December 2024

     

    While Oman is at a disadvantage in terms of hydrocarbon reserves compared to its Gulf neighbours, when it comes to mineral resources, the sultanate, with its considerably large geographical area, enjoys benefits that its Gulf peers – barring Saudi Arabia – do not.

    Exploration for mineral resources and mining activities for metals production are fundamental pillars of Oman Vision 2040 – a socio-economic strategy designed to diversify the sultanate’s economy away from oil and gas revenues and harness the potential of non-hydrocarbon industrial sectors.

    At the forefront of this ambition is Minerals Development Oman (MDO), which was created in 2017 to explore the country’s mineral resources base and develop the mining sector.

    Minerals exploration and production

    MDO, a subsidiary of Oman Investment Authority, continues to advance its exploration campaigns across a range of minerals, including copper, chromite, gypsum, limestone, dolomite and silica.

    The company had a major success recently when its subsidiary, Mazoon Mining, broke ground on a copper concentrate production project in Yanqul in northwestern Oman.

    The Mazoon copper project site, located in the wilayat of Yanqul in Al-Dhahirah Governorate, covers 20 square kilometres (sq km) and comprises five open-pit mines. It is estimated to hold copper ore reserves of 22.9 million tonnes.

    The project includes the construction of a processing plant spanning 56,000 square metres, with the capacity to process 2.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) of copper ore.

    The Mazoon copper project will have the capacity to produce 115,000 t/y of copper concentrate, at a 21.5% copper grade, making it the largest copper concentrate production project in the sultanate.

    Mazoon Mining was granted exclusive rights by Oman’s Energy & Minerals Ministry in 2022 to explore, develop and produce copper concentrates in concession area 12-A1, with gold as a secondary by-product.

    Following feasibility studies, Australian/Canadian firm Lycopodium was appointed as the engineering, procurement and construction management contractor for the Yanqul project.

    Construction of the processing plant is planned to begin in the first quarter of 2025, and production of copper concentrate is set to commence in the first quarter of 2027.

    In addition to the Mazoon copper project, MDO has also initiated the redevelopment of copper mines in Sohar and Liwa, aiming to produce 800,000 t/y of copper ore annually, with confirmed reserves of 2.78 million t/y of copper ore.

    In October, the Omani Ministry of Energy & Minerals awarded MDO a concession agreement to explore and develop silica resources in Block 51F in the wilayat of Mahout in Al-Wusta Governorate. The block covers 2,156 sq km and is estimated to hold silica, limestone and dolomite deposits.

    Steel production investments

    Several other metal production projects in Oman, particularly steel schemes, have also made progress in recent months.

    In late October, Brazilian mining major Vale and China’s Jinnan Iron & Steel Group entered a joint venture (JV) to establish an iron ore concentration plant in Oman’s northern city of Sohar.

    The Brazilian-Chinese JV intends to invest more than $600m in the iron ore concentration plant project, which will be the first such facility in Oman.

    Vale will invest $227m to connect the plant to its agglomerate facilities in the region, while Jinnan will invest about $400m to build, own and operate the plant.

    The planned complex, to be located within Sohar Port and Freezone, is scheduled to start operations by mid-2027.

    The plant will be able to process 18 million t/y of iron ore and produce 12.6 million t/y of high-grade concentrate.

    The proposed iron ore concentration plant project in Sohar is understood to be the second-biggest foreign investment in Oman’s steel industry. As such, it will contribute to the sultanate becoming a key player in the global supply chain for direct reduction grade iron ore (DRI).

    Vulcan Green Steel (VGS), the steel arm of Vulcan Green, which is owned by India’s Jindal Steel Group, is developing the largest green steel project in Oman. VGS broke ground on the estimated $3bn project in December 2023.

    The planned facility, which covers 2 sq km in the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad), will have two 2.5 million t/y production lines, comprising DRI units, an electric arc furnace and a hot strip mill. 

    The planned facility, set for completion by 2026, will primarily use green hydrogen to produce 5 million t/y of green steel. Once commissioned, it will be the world’s largest renewable energy-based green steel manufacturing complex.

    Sezad could also host another large-scale green steel project if Japanese steel manufacturer Kobe Steel and Tokyo-based Mitsui & Company can reach the final investment decision on a preliminary agreement they signed in April 2023 to develop a low-carbon iron metallics project.

    The two Japanese firms agreed to conduct a detailed business study in line with the goal of commencing low-carbon dioxide iron metallics production by 2027. The project is expected to produce 5 million t/y of DRI using a process called Midrex, where DRI is produced from iron ores through a natural gas or hydrogen-based shaft furnace.

    Polysilicon production

    Oman is also set to become a key regional producer of polysilicon once private player United Solar Polysilicon completes the construction of its estimated $1.35bn production facility in Sohar Port and Freezone in 2025. 

    The polysilicon plant will have the capacity to produce 100,000 t/y of high-quality metallurgical silicon. United Solar Polysilicon broke ground on the factory, which will be spread across 160,000 square metres, in March this year.

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    Polysilicon is a high-purity form of silicon, which is a key raw material in producing solar photovoltaic panels. Polysilicon production involves pouring the liquid metallurgical silicon from the furnace into moulds and then cooling it through mould or continuous casting. After cooling, the metallurgical silicon is ground and packaged for global export.

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  • Oman construction continues its positive trajectory

    10 December 2024

     

    Oman has had its best year for construction and transport contract awards in nearly a decade in 2024. By late November, there had been $4.1bn of awards, which already exceeds the $3.6bn recorded in 2023, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects. 

    The total for 2024 is the first time the market has exceeded $4bn since 2015 and builds on the steady growth that the sultanate has delivered since it emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021 and the change in leadership in 2020, when Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said replaced Sultan Qaboos Bin Said. 

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    The big moment for Oman construction in 2024 came in April, when three civil works contracts were awarded for the Hafeet Rail project connecting Oman and the UAE. The estimated AED5.5bn ($1.5bn) design-and-build contract was awarded to a consortium of Abu Dhabi-based National Projects Construction, National Infrastructure Construction Company, Tristar Engineering & Construction and Oman’s Galfar Engineering & Contracting.

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    There has also been a steady flow of road contract awards in 2024. According to MEED Projects, there were close to $1.9bn of road construction contracts in Oman by the end of November. Three awards totalling $667m were awarded in November to contractors for work on the Adam to Thumrait highway. 

    Airports projects are also being planned. The Civil Aviation Authority appointed Swiss engineering firm Renardet SA & Partners to prepare designs for Musandam airport in March, and later in the year, it tendered engineering and design contracts for the Jabal Akhdar, Masirah and Sohar airports.

    These projects are part of the National Aviation Strategy 2030, which aims to attract an investment of $3.6bn in airport cities over 20 years.

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    In June this year, the Oman Investment Authority-backed Grand Blue City Development Company awarded local contractor Galfar Engineering & Contracting the marine works for the project, which is the clearest sign yet that construction work is gaining momentum.

    The most high-profile new masterplanned project is Sultan Haitham City, which is managed by the Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning (MHUP). In February, MHUP signed contracts worth RO1bn ($2.6bn) to develop the first phase of Sultan Haitham City. The first phase includes the development of a city centre and six of the development’s 19 planned neighbourhoods. Completion is expected in 2030.

    Another masterplanned development near the capital is Al-Khuwair Downtown, which is close to Muscat International airport and is also being developed by the MHUP. Design work is progressing on the scheme, which includes a marina, waterfront with beaches and sports facilities, canal and promenade areas, a cultural quarter and a ministry campus.

    Another MHUP project is the Omani Mountain Destination on Jabal Al-Akhdar, 150km from Muscat. The $2.4bn destination includes 2,537 housing units, 2,000 hotel rooms, and a health and wellness village, all situated at an altitude of 2,400 metres above sea level.

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    Foreign investors are also playing a role. Dar Global is developing the Aida project, and this year, it launched The Trump International Resort, Golf Club & Residences. The estimated $500m development comprises a 140-key five-star hotel, villas, serviced apartments, an 18-hole championship golf course, a club and a nightclub.

    As well as traditional real estate investment, public-private partnerships are playing a role. The Asyad Group is tendering a 4,925 square-metre office complex in the Muscat airport free zone, with the selected firm developing it on a design, build, finance, operate and transfer basis over 25 years.

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  • Morocco explores offshore wind project

    9 December 2024

    Luxembourg-headquartered European Investment Bank (EIB) has tendered a contract covering the feasibility study of Morocco's first offshore wind project off the coast of Essaouira.

    EIB, which is supporting the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (Masen) in the project, expects to receive bids from technical and engineering consultants for the contract by 30 January 2025.

    The selected consultant will undertake the project's feasibility and complementary studies and environmental and social impact assessment. 

    The duration of the contract is 29 months, with the possibility of one or more extensions, consisting of a maximum of 14 additional months for a maximum period of 43 months in total, said EIB.

    The value of the contract is €2m, with the possibility of one or more budget increases for additional services, of a maximum amount of €3m, if additional eligible funds are available, the bank added.

    Recent studies indicate Morocco has a high potential to exploit offshore wind, particularly along its Atlantic coast where wind speed is high and where the shallow waters are suitable for fixed-bottom offshore wind.

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    Morocco has set a target for 52% of its energy to be produced from clean energy sources by 2030, one of the most ambitious targets in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    It aims to increase its renewable capacity to 10,000MW by 2030. Solar PV capacity is expected to comprise 4,500MW, with wind and hydroelectric comprising 4,200MW and 1,300MW, respectively.

    Masen tendered contracts to develop and operate the Noor Midelt 2 and Noor Midelt 3 solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (bess) projects this year

    The Noor Midelt 2 solar independent power project (IPP) consists of a 400MW solar PV power plant with battery storage of two hours.

    It replaces a previous scheme that was expected to include thermal concentrated solar power and PV solar components, similar to Noor Midelt 1, which was previously awarded to a consortium of EDF and Masdar.

    The Noor Midelt 3 IPP scheme is expected to have a solar PV capacity of up to 400MW and a bess capacity not exceeding 400 megawatt-hours (MWh).     

    The client has moved the last day for bid submissions from 29 November to 12 December, according to a source close to the projects.

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  • Hassan Allam wins Ramhan Island villas construction deal

    9 December 2024

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Egyptian construction firm Hassan Allam has been awarded a construction contract to build about 321 villas at the Ramhan Island development in Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by the local firm Eagle Hills, which is led by Mohamed Alabbar, the founder and chairman of Emaar Properties.

    Located off the coast of Abu Dhabi, the Ramhan Island development spans an area of over 4 million square metres.

    The overall development includes the construction of 1,800 villas, 900 residences, a hotel and retail facilities.

    Eagle Hills signed an agreement with US-based hotel operator Marriott International to build a Ritz-Carlton Reserve hotel on Ramhan Island in July.

    The property will feature 50 private one- to four-bedroom villas, including floating villas. The development is expected to open in 2029.

    Mohamed Alabbar launched the Ramhan Island development in May this year.

    GlobalData expects the construction industry in the UAE to expand by 4.6% in real terms in 2024, supported by improved investments in transport, industrial and residential construction projects. Private sector investments in the real estate sector will also support the industry’s growth this year. 

    The construction industry is expected to register an annual average growth of 3.8% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, housing and renewable energy projects.

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