Meed | Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

10 May 2024

The ambitious new $17bn Iraq Development Road project, linking Basra to Turkiye’s Mersin port, puts the country’s economic trajectory on a long-term geopolitical setting that will aim to take full advantage of Iraq’s position as a key link in trade routes between Asia and the Mediterranean.

But before this vaunted plan takes root, Prime Minister Shia Al Sudani’s government faces a host of knotty economic challenges, not least a challenging fiscal position aggravated by the expansionary budget announced in 2023.

Lack of parliamentary consent has largely insulated the country from the negative impacts of that $153bn budget. That has meant large amounts of planned state spending have not been disbursed, leaving the state finances in better shape than they would have been otherwise.

Fitch Ratings expects that low execution of capital spending and limited transfers to the Kurdistan region will help limit the size of the deficit.

“We expect growth to rebound in 2024 (1.2%), driven by public spending under the expansionary three-year budget and continued recovery in non-oil GDP. We expect non-oil growth to benefit from stronger private consumption, as inflation edges down,” says Mohamed Afifi, Fitch Ratings’ primary analyst for Iraq.

Budget deficit

Even so, reduced oil revenues have impacted Iraq’s economy, turning a budget surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022 into a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023. Fitch sees the fiscal deficit widening, reaching 3.7% in 2024 as declining oil prices and Opec-imposed production cuts drive oil revenue down, while a heavier wage bill pushes expenditure.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also likely to rise in 2024-25, from 43.4% in 2023 to 48.7%, with Fitch attributing this to larger budget deficits that will be funded from borrowing and deposit drawdowns. However, these figures include some $40bn of legacy debt that Iraq faces no pressure to service.

The big concern is that the 2023-25 budget programme will add hundreds of thousands of workers to an already bloated public sector payroll, crowding out the private sector.

“We estimate that the expansionary three-year budget will hinder the private sector’s development by providing a sharp increase in the public workforce,” says Afifi.

“We estimate that the budget will add 600,000 employees, most of which are currently working under temporary contracts, to the public sector payroll. This would bring the public sector wage bill (salaries and pensions) to 25.8% of GDP by 2025, from 15% in 2022.”

As the IMF warned in a March 2024 commentary, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labour force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

In this context, urged the Fund, the Iraqi authorities should seek to enable private sector development, including through labour market reforms, modernisation of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.

That is a hefty checklist for a country that is still facing myriad security, political and developmental challenges.

Al Sudani can at least counter the gloomier prognoses with the revival in non-oil sector growth, and lower inflation. Real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6% in 2023. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation, according to the IMF.

International reserves increased to $112bn in 2023. Fitch sees FX reserves providing payment coverage above 12 months and a substantial financial buffer until the end of 2025.

Other positives will come through increased foreign direct investment, notably from the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund allocated $3bn for Iraqi investments last year, while Qatar’s Estithmar signed a series of memorandums of understanding worth $7bn in June 2023, covering hotel, real estate and healthcare projects.

Banking reform

One area of focus for the government is its banking sector, which remains underdeveloped and largely unfit for purpose, dominated by state-owned banks with opaque finances.

As Aysegul Ozgur, head of research at Iraq-focused Rabee Securities, says, 93.7% of currency issued was outside banks in Iraq at the end of 2022.

But, says Ozgur, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is looking to strengthen financial inclusion and increase the cash inside the financial system through a series of projects.

“The salary domiciliation project of 2017 is the most prominent one among them, aiming for public sector employees to transfer their salaries to bank accounts by enabling them to receive and withdraw salaries easily through available payment channels (bank branches, ATMs and POS) and providing the ability to obtain credit facilities and bank loans by showing their salaries as collateral,” she says.

A number of other developments underscore the CBI’s concerted efforts to modernise Iraq’s financial landscape and promote economic stability.

“As a measure to control the FX flow into the banking system, the CBI now allows a limited number of banks to participate in the CBI foreign currency window and engage in US dollar transactions,” says Ozgur. “Due to the restricted number of banks permitted to engage in such activities, they benefit from an expanded market share in US dollar transactions.”

The Central Bank has also moved towards tougher oversight of the country’s 61 commercial banking institutions, made up of 54 private banks and seven state banks.

Since the CBI revised the guidelines for foreign currency transactions across borders to curb illicit financial flows in February 2023, says Ozgur, the banks that have direct correspondent banking relationships have played an active role in international money transfers and increased their commission and FX income significantly.

“The outstanding growth in current account deposits with these transfers resulted in significant growth in assets. Bank of Baghdad, National Bank of Iraq and Al-Mansour Bank are among the banks benefiting the most from these developments due to having direct correspondent banking relationships,” says Ozgur.

In February 2024, eight local commercial banks were banned from engaging in US dollar transactions, in a move to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of the greenback. This followed a visit to Baghdad by a senior US Treasury official to Baghdad.

Such moves should, over time, help restore confidence in the financial system and – crucially – help build local insinuations that are credible players in the local economy, able to facilitate Iraq’s private sector growth ambitions, whether domestically or as part of the Iraq Development Road projects.

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

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James Gavin

Exclusive from Meed

Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
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Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
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Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
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Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises
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Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
22 September 2026

Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco) has outlined plans for the next phase of expansion at King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) in Jeddah.

The programme comprises six upcoming contractor packages spanning airside works, terminal upgrades and utilities as Jedco advances its long-term expansion plans.

The opportunities include airfield rehabilitation; a five-year construction framework covering multiple workstreams and facility types; a Terminal 3A (T3A) package; Terminal 1 (T1) optimisation; a fuel farm; and Concourse C works.

The packages cover terminal buildings and ancillary facilities, runways, taxiways and aprons, hangars, fuel systems, airside facilities, supporting infrastructure and utility networks.

Tendering and award activity will be staggered over the next two years. Airfield rehabilitation is targeted for Q3 2026. The construction framework is scheduled for Q4 2026 and will run for five years.

The T3A package is planned for Q1 2027 and will be delivered under an early contractor involvement contract. Local contractors are encouraged to bid as part of a joint venture with an experienced international partner.

T1 optimisation is planned for Q4 2027, the fuel farm for Q2 2027, and Concourse C – currently the latest of the six milestones – for Q2 2028.

The new packages add detail to Jedco’s wider expansion plans disclosed in 2023, when it was reported that the company would invest SR115bn ($31bn) to increase KAIA’s capacity to 114 million passengers a year, with an overall completion target of 2031.

Jedco has recently awarded several significant contracts linked to the airport’s upgrade programme.

In November 2024, a joint venture of local Algihaz Contracting and Turkey’s TAV was awarded a contract to rehabilitate the South Terminal to serve Umrah and Hajj pilgrims, with Singapore’s Surbana Jurong acting as consultant.

Earlier that year, Jedco also awarded France’s Alstom a contract to increase the capacity of the Innovia automated people mover at Terminal 1, including new cars and upgrades to signalling, communications and controls.

Surbana Jurong is expected to play a leading role in future KAIA expansion plans and is currently providing technical advisory and project management consultancy for more than 100 capital projects for Jedco, valued at over SR6bn ($1.6bn).

These upgrades are expected to boost KAIA’s annual capacity in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

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Yasir Iqbal

Contractor wins $105m Medina university hospital deal

22 September 2026

Riyadh-based construction firm Al-Mansouria General Contracting Company has been awarded a SR396m ($105.6m) contract to complete the remaining construction works on the Taiba University Hospital project in Medina.

The contract scope includes structural completion, remaining civil works, mechanical, electrical and plumbing installations, specialised clinical fit-outs and medical gas infrastructure to bring the long-stalled facility into operation.

Located on King Khalid Road along Medina’s Third Ring Road, the teaching hospital will have a capacity of 563 beds.

The contract duration is three years, with delivery targeted for late 2029.

The latest award follows a prolonged procurement cycle that began more than a decade ago as part of a public budget drive to expand Saudi Arabia’s higher education infrastructure.

The project’s first phase was initially signed in December 2011 with local firm Al-Muhaidib Contracting under a SR500m ($133.3m) contract.

Groundbreaking for the eight-storey complex took place in July 2013. The project covers a gross floor area of more than 200,000 square metres.

Progress stalled shortly thereafter due to reported structural delays and the reallocation of public capital budgets across the kingdom’s social infrastructure pipeline.

READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

> MARKET FOCUS: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire

> INDUSTRY REPORT: Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

> INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

> TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
22 September 2026

Oman’s Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn) has tendered an estimated RO15m ($39m) contract to develop infrastructure for Thumrait Industrial City.

The tender was issued on 14 September, with bids due by 12 November.

The scope covers site-wide utilities and services, including an internal road network, stormwater channels and culverts. It also includes installing sewerage and water networks, along with landscaping works.

In addition, Madayn intends to build plug-and-play industrial units and a facilities building.

The first phase of the development will cover about 120,000 square metres (sq m).

Thumrait Industrial City is located in Oman’s Dhofar Governorate and spans an area of more than four million sq m.

The project location is close to concession blocks, quarry sites and the Najd agricultural areas. It is positioned to attract industrial investments in sectors such as mining and minerals processing (including gypsum and cement), food production, and a range of light and general manufacturing activities.

In March, Madayn said it is preparing to invest more than RO245m ($637m) to upgrade and expand infrastructure across its industrial cities between 2026 and 2030, as part of efforts to attract new investment and advance economic diversification.

According to media reports, Madayn chief executive Dawood Bin Salim Al-Hadabi said the programme is part of an expanded, phased plan aligned with Oman Vision 2040 and the authority’s long-term Madayn 2040 strategy.

The objective is to deepen Oman’s industrial base and spread growth across the sultanate’s governorates.

Madayn said the pipeline comprises about 90 strategic projects to improve industrial-city infrastructure, extend serviced land and increase the overall ease of doing business for investors.

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Yasir Iqbal
Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
22 September 2026
State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has reduced the number of approved contractors for onshore drilling and shallow-well maintenance from 51 to 24.

Firms that are no longer qualified include major contractors such as Italy’s Saipem, Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne and Houston-based Patterson-UTI Energy.

The latest list still includes a wide range of Kuwaiti, regional and international companies, according to the latest update on its electronic system, published on 21 September 2026.

The full list of contractors that are now qualified to participate in tenders is:
- Burgan Company for Well Drilling, Trading & Maintenance (Kuwait)
- Kuwait Drilling Company (Kuwait)
- Sun Drilling Kuwait (Kuwait)
- TDL Kuwait for Oil Rigs & Natural Gas Extraction Activities, Services and Facilities (Kuwait)
- United Precision Drilling (Kuwait)
- Abraj Energy Services (Oman)
- Adnoc Drilling Company (UAE)
- Arabian Drilling Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Anton Oilfield Services (China)
- China Oilfield Services (China)
- Egyptian Drilling Company (Egypt)
- CNPC Bohai Drilling Engineering Company (China)
- Great Wall Drilling Company (China)
- John Energy (India)
- Kerui Oilfield Service (China)
- KCA Deutag Drilling (Germany)
- Mohammed Al-Barwani Petroleum Services (Oman)
- Nabors Drilling International (US)
- National Drilling & Services Company (Oman)
- Sea & Land Drilling Contractors (Oman)
- Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation (China)
- Karamay Jianye Energy (China)
- Modern Drilling Company (Egypt)
- Grey Wolf Drilling International (US)
An earlier list, which was published on 11 February, included 51 qualified companies.

The reduction in qualified drilling contractors follows KOC’s notice on 27 April this year, informing existing qualified contractors that they would need to reapply.
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Wil Crisp

Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises

21 September 2026

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Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) expects carbon emissions from power and water production to fall by more than 45% by 2035 as the UAE expands renewable energy and reverse osmosis (RO) desalination.

The state offtaker's latest long-term system planning forecasts emissions will decline from about 42 million tonnes in 2019 to approximately 23 million tonnes in 2035.

The reduction is expected despite annual electricity demand that is forecast to rise by about 70% in 2026-33.

Ewec said the expansion of renewable energy and the shift towards RO desalination will be the principal drivers of the reduction.

The company plans to increase Abu Dhabi's solar capacity to 14GW by 2030 and more than 35GW by 2035. This will be supported by up to 15GW of battery storage capacity.

According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Ewec has over $16bn-worth of power and water projects in the execution stage as part of its long-term procurement programme to increase renewable energy and low-carbon water production capacity.

This includes a 5.2GW Abu Dhabi solar and battery energy storage system (bess) round-the-clock renewable energy project, as well as three 1.5GW solar photovoltaic independent power projects (IPP): Al-Ajban, Al-Khazna and Al-Zarraf.

It also comprises the 1GW Al-Dhafra open-cycle gas turbine power plant, the 2.5GW Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant and a separate 400MW bess IPP.

As previously reported, it is expected that the developer's agreement for the 3.3GW Al-Nouf 1 CCGT IPP will be signed by the end of the year, while contractors are preparing to submit bids for a separate 2.6GW power plant project in Ajman.

The expansion of solar and battery storage is expected to reduce the system's reliance on gas-fired generation. However, gas-fired generation will continue to provide flexibility to support the system and balance intermittent renewable power output, according to Ewec.

The offtaker also expects RO desalination to account for more than 95% of total water production by 2035, with the procurement programme supporting the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy's Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035 for electricity production and the UAE Net Zero by 2050 Strategy.