Meed | Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

10 May 2024

The ambitious new $17bn Iraq Development Road project, linking Basra to Turkiye’s Mersin port, puts the country’s economic trajectory on a long-term geopolitical setting that will aim to take full advantage of Iraq’s position as a key link in trade routes between Asia and the Mediterranean.

But before this vaunted plan takes root, Prime Minister Shia Al Sudani’s government faces a host of knotty economic challenges, not least a challenging fiscal position aggravated by the expansionary budget announced in 2023.

Lack of parliamentary consent has largely insulated the country from the negative impacts of that $153bn budget. That has meant large amounts of planned state spending have not been disbursed, leaving the state finances in better shape than they would have been otherwise.

Fitch Ratings expects that low execution of capital spending and limited transfers to the Kurdistan region will help limit the size of the deficit.

“We expect growth to rebound in 2024 (1.2%), driven by public spending under the expansionary three-year budget and continued recovery in non-oil GDP. We expect non-oil growth to benefit from stronger private consumption, as inflation edges down,” says Mohamed Afifi, Fitch Ratings’ primary analyst for Iraq.

Budget deficit

Even so, reduced oil revenues have impacted Iraq’s economy, turning a budget surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022 into a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023. Fitch sees the fiscal deficit widening, reaching 3.7% in 2024 as declining oil prices and Opec-imposed production cuts drive oil revenue down, while a heavier wage bill pushes expenditure.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also likely to rise in 2024-25, from 43.4% in 2023 to 48.7%, with Fitch attributing this to larger budget deficits that will be funded from borrowing and deposit drawdowns. However, these figures include some $40bn of legacy debt that Iraq faces no pressure to service.

The big concern is that the 2023-25 budget programme will add hundreds of thousands of workers to an already bloated public sector payroll, crowding out the private sector.

“We estimate that the expansionary three-year budget will hinder the private sector’s development by providing a sharp increase in the public workforce,” says Afifi.

“We estimate that the budget will add 600,000 employees, most of which are currently working under temporary contracts, to the public sector payroll. This would bring the public sector wage bill (salaries and pensions) to 25.8% of GDP by 2025, from 15% in 2022.”

As the IMF warned in a March 2024 commentary, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labour force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

In this context, urged the Fund, the Iraqi authorities should seek to enable private sector development, including through labour market reforms, modernisation of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.

That is a hefty checklist for a country that is still facing myriad security, political and developmental challenges.

Al Sudani can at least counter the gloomier prognoses with the revival in non-oil sector growth, and lower inflation. Real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6% in 2023. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation, according to the IMF.

International reserves increased to $112bn in 2023. Fitch sees FX reserves providing payment coverage above 12 months and a substantial financial buffer until the end of 2025.

Other positives will come through increased foreign direct investment, notably from the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund allocated $3bn for Iraqi investments last year, while Qatar’s Estithmar signed a series of memorandums of understanding worth $7bn in June 2023, covering hotel, real estate and healthcare projects.

Banking reform

One area of focus for the government is its banking sector, which remains underdeveloped and largely unfit for purpose, dominated by state-owned banks with opaque finances.

As Aysegul Ozgur, head of research at Iraq-focused Rabee Securities, says, 93.7% of currency issued was outside banks in Iraq at the end of 2022.

But, says Ozgur, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is looking to strengthen financial inclusion and increase the cash inside the financial system through a series of projects.

“The salary domiciliation project of 2017 is the most prominent one among them, aiming for public sector employees to transfer their salaries to bank accounts by enabling them to receive and withdraw salaries easily through available payment channels (bank branches, ATMs and POS) and providing the ability to obtain credit facilities and bank loans by showing their salaries as collateral,” she says.

A number of other developments underscore the CBI’s concerted efforts to modernise Iraq’s financial landscape and promote economic stability.

“As a measure to control the FX flow into the banking system, the CBI now allows a limited number of banks to participate in the CBI foreign currency window and engage in US dollar transactions,” says Ozgur. “Due to the restricted number of banks permitted to engage in such activities, they benefit from an expanded market share in US dollar transactions.”

The Central Bank has also moved towards tougher oversight of the country’s 61 commercial banking institutions, made up of 54 private banks and seven state banks.

Since the CBI revised the guidelines for foreign currency transactions across borders to curb illicit financial flows in February 2023, says Ozgur, the banks that have direct correspondent banking relationships have played an active role in international money transfers and increased their commission and FX income significantly.

“The outstanding growth in current account deposits with these transfers resulted in significant growth in assets. Bank of Baghdad, National Bank of Iraq and Al-Mansour Bank are among the banks benefiting the most from these developments due to having direct correspondent banking relationships,” says Ozgur.

In February 2024, eight local commercial banks were banned from engaging in US dollar transactions, in a move to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of the greenback. This followed a visit to Baghdad by a senior US Treasury official to Baghdad.

Such moves should, over time, help restore confidence in the financial system and – crucially – help build local insinuations that are credible players in the local economy, able to facilitate Iraq’s private sector growth ambitions, whether domestically or as part of the Iraq Development Road projects.

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

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James Gavin

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Abu Dhabi mends fences with Riyadh
9 October 2026

Ongoing political turmoil in the region may be prompting Abu Dhabi to review its approach to key diplomatic issues, not least its relations with its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia.

In late September, UAE Vice-President Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan travelled to Riyadh for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Defence Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman. Such visits may have been commonplace in the past, but over the past year they have been relatively rare, given the friction between the two Gulf powers over issues such as the conflict zones of Yemen and Sudan, relations with Israel and economic rivalry.

At the start of the year, the UAE retreated from Yemen under pressure from Riyadh, after the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council made rapid territorial gains at the expense of Saudi-backed groups and advanced close to the kingdom’s southern border.

Since then, against the backdrop of the Iran war, relations have shown further signs of strain, with cross-border financial transactions reportedly being blocked or delayed.

However, there have been intermittent attempts to present a more collegial relationship, such as in July, when a photo emerged on social media of Sheikh Mansour and Prince Khalid posing with their arms around each other, reportedly while on holiday in Europe.

Yemen dynamics

Gains by another group in Yemen may lie behind the latest rapprochement between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The visit by Sheikh Mansour on 29 September came in the wake of significant advances by the Houthis, who had recently captured Mokha port and strategically significant areas of land overlooking the Bab El-Mandeb Strait – heightening their ability to menace passing ships.

Saudi Arabia has been leaning on its allies – particularly Pakistan and Turkiye – to support its campaign against the Houthis. It is unclear whether the UAE would be willing to get involved militarily in Yemen again, or whether Riyadh would be happy for it to do so, but it could still be a useful ally in the fight. Analysts have noted that UAE-backed forces have, over the years, had a far greater record than anyone else of scoring battleground victories against the Houthis.

It is also notable that Mansour’s delegation to Riyadh included several senior security officials, including Ali Bin Hammad Al-Shamsi, secretary general of the Supreme Council for National Security; Ali Saeed Matar Al-Neyadi, chairman of the National Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management Authority; and Nasser Humaid Al-Nuaimi, secretary general of the Tawazun Council for Defence Enablement.

The visit was a surprise, given the GCC states’ lack of unified action this year amid the crises in Yemen and Iran. Speaking at an event in Washington in mid-September, Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, noted that: “Despite the fact that [the GCC states] all face a common threat in Iran and its proxies, you still don’t see real coordination between them. You still have these differences between the Saudis and the UAE, for instance; you have differences between the Qataris and the UAE. If anything would have united them, this would be it. And you don’t see that kind of unity.”

Writing for the Arab Gulf States Institute in early October, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Baker Institute fellow for the Middle East at Rice University, said Mansour’s visit to Riyadh in late September was “likely meant to signal that the thaw [in bilateral relations] was real” and “designed to enable a more coordinated approach to managing the forces ranged against the Houthis in southern and central Yemen”.

Further signs of warming ties came on 8 October, when UAE Investment Minister Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman covering power grid interconnections, trade in electricity and freight rail connectivity.

On the same day, the Saudi ambassador to the UAE invited President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan to attend a GCC-EU Summit in Saudi Arabia later in the month.

Sheikh Mansour was not the only senior Emirati on diplomatic manoeuvres in recent weeks. The day after the vice-president was in Riyadh, national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan was in Muscat for talks with Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said.

Oman is a critical partner for the UAE in several areas. Omani ports have provided a trade lifeline for Emirati importers and exporters at a time when ports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been sidelined by Iran’s threats against shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Muscat’s approach of maintaining dialogue with all actors means it is also able to mediate with both Iran and Yemen’s Houthis.

Strategic independence

The flurry of diplomatic activity may be a sign of closer coordination between the UAE and its neighbours on some critical issues, but that does not necessarily herald a sea change in its approach.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York on 28 September, Minister of State Khalifa Shaheen Al-Marar reviewed the crises in Iran, Sudan, Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere and said “the importance of developing and reforming regional and international multilateral institutions … remains paramount” – but while he name-checked the UN, he did not mention the GCC.

It is also notable that the UAE has not yet joined either of the two security initiatives launched by Saudi Arabia during the summer: a maritime defence alliance designed to protect shipping in the Red Sea, or a mutual defence pact that Riyadh signed with Turkiye and Pakistan.

In his speech to the UN, Al-Marar listed what he saw as the main pillars of the UAE’s national strength: “strategic independence” was the first item in his list.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20435670/main.gif

Dominic Dudley
Abu Dhabi mends fences with Riyadh
9 October 2026

Ongoing political turmoil in the region may be prompting Abu Dhabi to review its approach to key diplomatic issues, not least its relations with its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia.

In late September, UAE Vice-President Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan travelled to Riyadh for talks with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Defence Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman. Such visits may have been commonplace in the past, but over the past year they have been relatively rare, given the friction between the two Gulf powers over issues such as the conflict zones of Yemen and Sudan, relations with Israel and economic rivalry.

At the start of the year, the UAE retreated from Yemen under pressure from Riyadh, after the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council made rapid territorial gains at the expense of Saudi-backed groups and advanced close to the kingdom’s southern border.

Since then, against the backdrop of the Iran war, relations have shown further signs of strain, with cross-border financial transactions reportedly being blocked or delayed.

However, there have been intermittent attempts to present a more collegial relationship, such as in July, when a photo emerged on social media of Sheikh Mansour and Prince Khalid posing with their arms around each other, reportedly while on holiday in Europe.

Yemen dynamics

Gains by another group in Yemen may lie behind the latest rapprochement between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The visit by Sheikh Mansour on 29 September came in the wake of significant advances by the Houthis, who had recently captured Mokha port and strategically significant areas of land overlooking the Bab El-Mandeb Strait – heightening their ability to menace passing ships.

Saudi Arabia has been leaning on its allies – particularly Pakistan and Turkiye – to support its campaign against the Houthis. It is unclear whether the UAE would be willing to get involved militarily in Yemen again, or whether Riyadh would be happy for it to do so, but it could still be a useful ally in the fight. Analysts have noted that UAE-backed forces have, over the years, had a far greater record than anyone else of scoring battleground victories against the Houthis.

It is also notable that Mansour’s delegation to Riyadh included several senior security officials, including Ali Bin Hammad Al-Shamsi, secretary general of the Supreme Council for National Security; Ali Saeed Matar Al-Neyadi, chairman of the National Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management Authority; and Nasser Humaid Al-Nuaimi, secretary general of the Tawazun Council for Defence Enablement.

The visit was a surprise, given the GCC states’ lack of unified action this year amid the crises in Yemen and Iran. Speaking at an event in Washington in mid-September, Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, noted that: “Despite the fact that [the GCC states] all face a common threat in Iran and its proxies, you still don’t see real coordination between them. You still have these differences between the Saudis and the UAE, for instance; you have differences between the Qataris and the UAE. If anything would have united them, this would be it. And you don’t see that kind of unity.”

Writing for the Arab Gulf States Institute in early October, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Baker Institute fellow for the Middle East at Rice University, said Mansour’s visit to Riyadh in late September was “likely meant to signal that the thaw [in bilateral relations] was real” and “designed to enable a more coordinated approach to managing the forces ranged against the Houthis in southern and central Yemen”.

Further signs of warming ties came on 8 October, when UAE Investment Minister Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Industry and Mineral Resources Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman covering power grid interconnections, trade in electricity and freight rail connectivity.

On the same day, the Saudi ambassador to the UAE invited President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan to attend a GCC-EU Summit in Saudi Arabia later in the month.

Sheikh Mansour was not the only senior Emirati on diplomatic manoeuvres in recent weeks. The day after the vice-president was in Riyadh, national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan was in Muscat for talks with Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said.

Oman is a critical partner for the UAE in several areas. Omani ports have provided a trade lifeline for Emirati importers and exporters at a time when ports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been sidelined by Iran’s threats against shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Muscat’s approach of maintaining dialogue with all actors means it is also able to mediate with both Iran and Yemen’s Houthis.

Strategic independence

The flurry of diplomatic activity may be a sign of closer coordination between the UAE and its neighbours on some critical issues, but that does not necessarily herald a sea change in its approach.

Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York on 28 September, Minister of State Khalifa Shaheen Al-Marar reviewed the crises in Iran, Sudan, Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere and said “the importance of developing and reforming regional and international multilateral institutions … remains paramount” – but while he name-checked the UN, he did not mention the GCC.

It is also notable that the UAE has not yet joined either of the two security initiatives launched by Saudi Arabia during the summer: a maritime defence alliance designed to protect shipping in the Red Sea, or a mutual defence pact that Riyadh signed with Turkiye and Pakistan.

In his speech to the UN, Al-Marar listed what he saw as the main pillars of the UAE’s national strength: “strategic independence” was the first item in his list.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20432716/main.gif

Dominic Dudley
Adnoc secures Thailand LNG supply deal
9 October 2026

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has secured a deal with Thailand-based energy and infrastructure company Gulf Group to supply 2 million tonnes a year of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with deliveries starting in 2027.

The multi-year sale and purchase agreement (SPA), whose exact duration Adnoc did not disclose, builds on an initial LNG supply deal agreed between the two companies last year. The transaction was arranged through Adnoc’s integrated LNG marketing and trading platform, which was established in July within Abu Dhabi Global Market.

The hub integrates the marketing operations of Adnoc subsidiaries Adnoc Gas and XRG with the trading activities of Adnoc Trading. It targets a combined portfolio of 47 million t/y of marketable LNG by 2035. Adnoc Trading has developed an active third-party trading portfolio over the past four years, operating from commercial offices in Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Geneva.

ALSO READ: Adnoc signs energy agreements with Japan and South Korea

Separately, Adnoc has secured offtake commitments covering approximately 90% of the 9.6 million-t/y capacity planned for its low-carbon Ruwais LNG project.

In July, Adnoc signed a 15-year SPA with Japan’s Inpex Corporation for the supply of up to 1 million t/y from Ruwais. That contract marked Adnoc’s third long-term Ruwais supply agreement with a Japanese buyer, following deals with Osaka Gas and Mitsui & Co in March and April 2025, respectively. Together, the agreements with the three Japanese firms account for 2.4 million t/y – one-quarter of the terminal’s total capacity, which will be delivered across two 4.8 million-t/y liquefaction trains.

Adnoc has also secured long-term Ruwais LNG supply agreements with Malaysia’s Petronas, Germany’s EnBW Energie Baden-Wurttemberg and SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe), China’s ENN Natural Gas, UK-based Shell and Indian Oil Corporation.

Currently under construction in Ruwais Industrial City, Abu Dhabi, the facility is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2028. Its commissioning will more than double Adnoc’s LNG production capacity to approximately 15 million t/y.

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Indrajit Sen

Fibrex wins $217m Abu Dhabi Seamont residences contract

9 October 2026

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Abu Dhabi-based contractor Fibrex Construction Group has won an AED800m ($217m) contract to build the Seamont Autograph Collection Residences project, located on Al-Reem Island in the UAE capital.

Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer Royal Development Holding, a subsidiary of Emirates Stallion Group, and local firm Saas Properties awarded the contract.

The development comprises two 22-storey towers offering 497 residences, ranging from one- to four-bedroom apartments.

The construction programme is scheduled to run for 27 months, with completion due in December 2028.

Fibrex will begin mobilisation immediately, following the completion of enabling works this month, which were undertaken by Sharjah-based Swiss Pro Foundations.

Dubai-based architectural firm Dewan Architects & Engineers is the project consultant.

The contract marks another major win for the contractor. Last year, Dubai-based developer Nakheel awarded Fibrex a AED2.6bn ($708m) contract to build the Bay Villas project at Dubai Islands.

That contract includes the construction of 636 villas.

READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Oxagon takes centre stage at Neom

> MARKET FOCUS: Saudi projects hold steady

> INDUSTRY REPORT: MEED’s 2026 GCC power developer ranking

> POWER: AI is creating a grid capacity problem

> LEGAL: What IFAD’s wind-down means for Gulf commodity markets

> OIL: Oil companies focus on North Africa amid Hormuz crisis

> LEADERSHIP: The future city does not need to hang above the ground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Dubai picks contractor for Al-Maktoum airport terminal

9 October 2026

Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP) has selected a contractor for an estimated AED10bn ($2.7bn) substructure package for the West Terminal, as part of the first phase of the $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport.

A joint venture of Beijing-headquartered China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and Abu Dhabi-based Tristar Engineering & Construction will execute the contract.

According to a description on DAEP’s website, the expanded airport’s West Terminal will be a seven-level facility spanning 800,000 square metres, with annual capacity for 45 million passengers.

The terminal will be the second of three planned terminals at Al-Maktoum International airport. It will connect to the airside via a 14-station automated people-mover (APM) system.

In July, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded an estimated $1.5bn contract to a joint venture of Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation and Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro for the APM system.

The APM will run beneath the apron and terminal areas, using multiple tracks to transport passengers between terminals and concourses. Four underground stations are planned in the first phase, while the full airport development is expected to include 14 stations.

The latest awards form part of a wider programme of contracts recently signed by DAEP, covering enabling works, the second runway, initial structural foundations for passenger terminals and concourse substructures.

Upcoming awards

In June 2026, DAEP said it will award construction contracts worth over AED55bn ($15bn) for Al-Maktoum International airport by the end of the year.

At the time, DAEP said the planned awards included substructure works for the West Terminal, the fourth aircraft concourse and the baggage-handling system. The programme also included superstructure works for the West Terminal and the first, second and third aircraft concourses.

The packages are expected to include long-span structural frameworks for buildings covering about 1.5 million square metres, infrastructure works for the southern airfield area, and power-generation and district-cooling plants supporting the construction programme.

DAEP also plans to award façade and roofing packages in 2026.

The Dubai Government approved updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April 2024. In September 2024, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as lead masterplanning and design consultants for the Al-Maktoum International airport expansion.

Construction of the airport is planned in three phases. Once complete, the airport will cover 70 square kilometres south of Dubai and include five parallel runways and 430 aircraft gates.

It will be five times the size of Dubai International airport and is planned to have a passenger-handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year – the largest in the world. For cargo, it is planned to have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.