meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

10 May 2024

 

The ambitious new $17bn Iraq Development Road project, linking Basra to Turkiye’s Mersin port, puts the country’s economic trajectory on a long-term geopolitical setting that will aim to take full advantage of Iraq’s position as a key link in trade routes between Asia and the Mediterranean.

But before this vaunted plan takes root, Prime Minister Shia Al Sudani’s government faces a host of knotty economic challenges, not least a challenging fiscal position aggravated by the expansionary budget announced in 2023.

Lack of parliamentary consent has largely insulated the country from the negative impacts of that $153bn budget. That has meant large amounts of planned state spending have not been disbursed, leaving the state finances in better shape than they would have been otherwise.

Fitch Ratings expects that low execution of capital spending and limited transfers to the Kurdistan region will help limit the size of the deficit.

“We expect growth to rebound in 2024 (1.2%), driven by public spending under the expansionary three-year budget and continued recovery in non-oil GDP. We expect non-oil growth to benefit from stronger private consumption, as inflation edges down,” says Mohamed Afifi, Fitch Ratings’ primary analyst for Iraq.

Budget deficit

Even so, reduced oil revenues have impacted Iraq’s economy, turning a budget surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022 into a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023. Fitch sees the fiscal deficit widening, reaching 3.7% in 2024 as declining oil prices and Opec-imposed production cuts drive oil revenue down, while a heavier wage bill pushes expenditure.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also likely to rise in 2024-25, from 43.4% in 2023 to 48.7%, with Fitch attributing this to larger budget deficits that will be funded from borrowing and deposit drawdowns. However, these figures include some $40bn of legacy debt that Iraq faces no pressure to service.

The big concern is that the 2023-25 budget programme will add hundreds of thousands of workers to an already bloated public sector payroll, crowding out the private sector.

“We estimate that the expansionary three-year budget will hinder the private sector’s development by providing a sharp increase in the public workforce,” says Afifi.

“We estimate that the budget will add 600,000 employees, most of which are currently working under temporary contracts, to the public sector payroll. This would bring the public sector wage bill (salaries and pensions) to 25.8% of GDP by 2025, from 15% in 2022.”

As the IMF warned in a March 2024 commentary, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labour force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

In this context, urged the Fund, the Iraqi authorities should seek to enable private sector development, including through labour market reforms, modernisation of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.    

That is a hefty checklist for a country that is still facing myriad security, political and developmental challenges.

Al Sudani can at least counter the gloomier prognoses with the revival in non-oil sector growth, and lower inflation. Real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6% in 2023. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation, according to the IMF.

International reserves increased to $112bn in 2023. Fitch sees FX reserves providing payment coverage above 12 months and a substantial financial buffer until the end of 2025.

Other positives will come through increased foreign direct investment, notably from the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund allocated $3bn for Iraqi investments last year, while Qatar’s Estithmar signed a series of memorandums of understanding worth $7bn in June 2023, covering hotel, real estate and healthcare projects.

Banking reform

One area of focus for the government is its banking sector, which remains underdeveloped and largely unfit for purpose, dominated by state-owned banks with opaque finances.

As Aysegul Ozgur, head of research at Iraq-focused Rabee Securities, says, 93.7% of currency issued was outside banks in Iraq at the end of 2022.

But, says Ozgur, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is looking to strengthen financial inclusion and increase the cash inside the financial system through a series of projects.

“The salary domiciliation project of 2017 is the most prominent one among them, aiming for public sector employees to transfer their salaries to bank accounts by enabling them to receive and withdraw salaries easily through available payment channels (bank branches, ATMs and POS) and providing the ability to obtain credit facilities and bank loans by showing their salaries as collateral,” she says.

A number of other developments underscore the CBI’s concerted efforts to modernise Iraq’s financial landscape and promote economic stability.

“As a measure to control the FX flow into the banking system, the CBI now allows a limited number of banks to participate in the CBI foreign currency window and engage in US dollar transactions,” says Ozgur. “Due to the restricted number of banks permitted to engage in such activities, they benefit from an expanded market share in US dollar transactions.”

The Central Bank has also moved towards tougher oversight of the country’s 61 commercial banking institutions, made up of 54 private banks and seven state banks.

Since the CBI revised the guidelines for foreign currency transactions across borders to curb illicit financial flows in February 2023, says Ozgur, the banks that have direct correspondent banking relationships have played an active role in international money transfers and increased their commission and FX income significantly.

“The outstanding growth in current account deposits with these transfers resulted in significant growth in assets. Bank of Baghdad, National Bank of Iraq and Al-Mansour Bank are among the banks benefiting the most from these developments due to having direct correspondent banking relationships,” says Ozgur.

In February 2024, eight local commercial banks were banned from engaging in US dollar transactions, in a move to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of the greenback. This followed a visit to Baghdad by a senior US Treasury official to Baghdad.

Such moves should, over time, help restore confidence in the financial system and – crucially – help build local insinuations that are credible players in the local economy, able to facilitate Iraq’s private sector growth ambitions, whether domestically or as part of the Iraq Development Road projects.

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11760747/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Qiddiya tenders Dragon Ball theme park package

    24 July 2026

     

    Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has tendered a contract to undertake the back-of-house works on the Dragon Ball theme park in Qiddiya, Saudi Arabia.

    The scope covers the construction of plant rooms, facilities management buildings, workshops, storage warehouses and central processing kitchens.

    It also includes a monorail service depot, a fire station, parking, utilities and other associated infrastructure.

    The bid submission deadline is 13 September.

    The Dragon Ball theme park will cover more than 500,000 square metres and will have seven themed zones inspired by the Japanese media franchise, including Kame House, Capsule Corporation and Beerus’ Planet.

    The park will offer more than 30 rides with five main attractions, including a rollercoaster that passes through a 70-metre landmark based on the series’ wish-granting dragon Shenron. 

    The development will also include themed hotels.

    In September 2024, US-based firm Falcon’s Creative Group announced that it is undertaking the masterplan and attraction design and is the creative lead for the theme park.

    QIC formally launched the Dragon Ball theme park in March 2024.

    The announcement came after QIC signed an agreement with Japanese firm Toei Animation, the producer of the Dragon Ball anime series.

    The Dragon Ball theme park is one of several major projects within the wider Qiddiya development. Other projects include an e-games arena, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a horse racing venue, a performing arts centre, the Speed Park and Six Flags theme parks and Aquarabia waterpark.

    The project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17738622/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia appoints developer for hybrid power plant

    24 July 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia-based Lamar Holding has signed a contract to develop a hybrid power plant at the Empty Quarter (Rub Al-Khali) land port in Saudi Arabia, according to a source.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) project aims to reduce diesel fuel use with renewable energy and ensure a long-term power supply at the Empty Quarter land port. It includes the construction of 15MW of total hybrid installed capacity, installation of a 7 megawatt-peak solar photovoltaic system and eight 1MW internal combustion engines.

    In March, MEED exclusively reported that Lamar had been given preferred bidder status and was in advanced discussions with Saudi Arabia’s Zakat, Tax & Customs Authority (Zatca) for the contract.

    MEED understands that the proposed plant will have the capacity to produce 25 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually. It will be implemented under a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer contract model for 25 years, excluding the construction period.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is acting as financial advisor to Lamar on the project. Egyptian firm Eternal Consultation Engineering Services is acting as the technical support consultant and Dubai-headquartered Aktech is the technical consultant for the project.

    Lamar Holding and Dubai’s SirajPower submitted bids for the Empty Quarter hybrid power plant project in July 2025, as previously reported by MEED.

    Zatca, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, had previously prequalified the following four companies to bid for the contract in October 2024:

    • Alfanar Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Lamar Holding (Saudi Arabia)
    • Olayan Energy (Saudi Arabia) / Enerwhere Sustainable Energy (UAE)
    • Siraj Power for Renewable Energy (UAE)

    Prior to that, in July 2024, 12 Saudi companies and local branches of international companies, along with 11 overseas-based companies, submitted statements of qualifications for the contract.

    In addition to building and operating the power plant, the project scope includes ensuring the facility operates to defined requirements and output specifications. It also involves managing power generation and the connection to the Zatca interface point for the entire project term.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17733327/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Downtown awards Al-Khobar substation contract

    23 July 2026

    Saudi Downtown Company (SDC), a wholly owned subsidiary of sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF), has awarded the local Al-Ojaimi Contracting a contract to design and construct a primary electrical substation for its Downtown Al-Khobar project.

    It is understood that the facility will be the main electricity supply point for the wider development. The scope also includes the design and implementation of the associated electrical infrastructure.

    SDC was launched in 2022 by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, who also serves as chairman of the PIF.

    The company is developing downtown districts in 12 cities in Saudi Arabia: Al-Khobar, Medina, Al-Ahsa, Buraidah, Najran, Jizan, Hail, Al-Baha, Arar, Taif, Dumat Al-Jandal and Tabuk.

    Earlier in July, MEED reported that SDC had awarded a contract for infrastructure works in downtown Al-Khobar to Saudi-based contractor Ansab General Contracting Company. The deal covers the design and development of the project's infrastructure, road networks and street lighting.

    SDC's mandate is to develop more than 10 million square metres (sq m) of land across its projects, supporting the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.

    The Al-Khobar project covers approximately 829,103 sq m of land and is designed as a mixed-use hub offering residential units, retail spaces, entertainment, hospitality and integrated public amenities.

    Local firm Omrania & Associates was recently appointed as the main consultant on the project.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17732450/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Abu Dhabi launches Marsa Al-Saadiyat residential project

    23 July 2026

    Abu Dhabi has launched Marsa Al-Saadiyat, a new waterfront development covering 6.4 million square metres (sq m), representing the final phase of the wider Saadiyat Island masterplan.

    Local real estate company Aldar has been appointed as master developer, with responsibility for the overall design and delivery of primary infrastructure.

    The development will cover about 8 kilometres (km) of waterfront, including 5.6km of beaches.

    Once complete, it will comprise a mix of homes, hotels, schools, cultural assets, parks and commercial components, and is planned to accommodate more than 58,000 residents.

    The residential offering will include private mansions, luxury villas, waterfront apartments and branded residences.

    Plans also include a hillside neighbourhood of standalone villas, rising to 22.5 metres, designed to capitalise on the surrounding topography and views.

    Marsa Al-Saadiyat will be linked to Umm Yifeenah Island and Reem Island via a new network of roads and tunnels, and will also include an underground station for Etihad Rail’s planned high-speed passenger service.

    A dedicated theatre district will be anchored by Dar Al-Funoon, a performing arts venue with capacity for more than 6,000 guests. 

    Upon completion, it will become one of the region’s largest performing arts venues.

    The venue is scheduled to open in 2030.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17731759/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia and US sign nuclear energy agreement

    23 July 2026

    Saudi Arabia and the US have signed an agreement for cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

    The agreement was signed in Riyadh on 22 July by Saudi Energy Minister and Industry & Mineral Resources Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

    The agreement “aims to enhance cooperation between the two countries in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to facilitate the exchange of expertise, knowledge and technologies, contributing to strengthening bilateral cooperation in accordance with the highest international standards of nuclear safety, nuclear security and non-proliferation”, according to a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency.

    “It also reflects the shared vision of both countries to expand cooperation in energy and future technologies while supporting sustainable development,” the statement said.

    “The agreement builds on the historic strategic partnership between the two friendly countries and follows the announcement made during the visit of His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, to the United States in November last year, on the conclusion of negotiations on bilateral cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy,” it added.

    “The agreement also builds on the long-standing energy cooperation between the two countries, supporting efforts to diversify energy sources, advance cutting-edge technologies and expand opportunities for cooperation and investment in ways that serve the mutual interests of the two friendly countries,” the statement concluded.

    Saudi nuclear ambitions

    Nuclear development is a core component of the Saudi Vision 2030 goal of transitioning away from complete fossil fuel reliance.

    Generating domestic electricity via nuclear power will allow Saudi Arabia to export more crude oil. Rapid population growth and heavy energy consumption in the industrial and household sectors – together with water desalination needs – require major power grid expansions.

    The kingdom holds significant domestic uranium deposits, estimated at over 90,000 tons, which it intends to leverage for an independent fuel cycle.

    In 2011, Riyadh announced plans to build 16 nuclear reactors over 20 years. The target was later revised to an initial goal of constructing two large-scale 1.4 gigawatt-electric (GWe) commercial reactors, with a long-term goal of 17 GWe of capacity by 2040.

    Implemented via the Saudi National Atomic Energy Project, the strategy moved from rapid building to a focused framework: large commercial plants, small modular reactors, fuel cycle development and regulatory structures.

    The government established the Nuclear Energy Holding Company in February 2022 to act as the primary commercial developer for the projects.

    Separately, Saudi Arabia is advancing preparations for its first commercial nuclear power plant as part of its Vision 2030 strategy, with Khor Duwaiheen – identified as the lead site for a planned 2.8GW facility – now moving towards the procurement phase.

    MEED previously reported that Riyadh had held technical and commercial negotiations with shortlisted vendors including EDF, Rosatom and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power.

    The project client, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah City for Atomic & Renewable Energy (KA-Care), has set and extended the bid submission deadlines several times since 2022, with advancement understood to be dependent on "progress in bilateral government-to-government talks”.

    Gulf nuclear energy moves

    The UAE was the first country in the GCC, as well as in the entire Middle East and North Africa region, to tap into nuclear energy for civilian use, having built and commissioned the Barakah nuclear power plant in Abu Dhabi in September 2024.

    Operated by the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation, the Barakah nuclear plant consists of four reactors, each with a capacity of 1.4GW, providing 40 terawatt-hours (TWh), equivalent to about 25% of the UAE’s base power load.

    In September last year, the plant completed its first year of full-fleet operations, generating more than 120 TWh of clean electricity since Unit 1 began operating.

    Separately, Bahrain is also exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption, as well as for the potential export of surplus, as MEED recently reported. State energy conglomerate Bapco Energies is tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant in the country.

    According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.

    Under the plan that is being studied, power produced by the nuclear facility will be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the country, such as Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Bapco Refining, for the clean production of aluminium and refined products, respectively, in line with Bahrain’s ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.

    BeVentures has, in turn, approached global consultancy firms such as Bechtel, Fluor, Kent, Technip Energies and Wood to assist with concept study and early-stage planning and assessment for the modular or small nuclear power project.

    Bapco Energies and BeVentures are also considering tapping into private financing and equity partnerships, in part or in full, for the proposed project, sources told MEED.

    The Paris-based International Energy Agency’s Net Zero by 2050 roadmap indicates that nuclear energy will nearly double its share by 2050, with annual capacity additions reaching 30GW in the 2030s.

    At the 28th UN Climate Change Conference, Cop28, which was held in Dubai in 2023, more than 20 countries pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, with banks and nuclear industry players signalling their support for the pledge more recently.

    The Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development's Nuclear Energy Agency recently said that global nuclear capacity will triple by 2050 only under its most transformative scenario, with the Gulf's reactor procurement decisions among the projects that will determine which path the industry takes.

    Acccording to the Nuclear Energy Outlook, China and Russia hold a strategic advantage in the international market, with Chinese-designed reactors accounting for 85 GWe of projects and Russian-designed reactors accounting for 57 GWe, more than half of which are export projects in countries including Egypt, Hungary and Turkiye.

    ALSO READ: Nuclear tripling target hinges on delivery

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17731280/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen