meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

10 May 2024

 

The ambitious new $17bn Iraq Development Road project, linking Basra to Turkiye’s Mersin port, puts the country’s economic trajectory on a long-term geopolitical setting that will aim to take full advantage of Iraq’s position as a key link in trade routes between Asia and the Mediterranean.

But before this vaunted plan takes root, Prime Minister Shia Al Sudani’s government faces a host of knotty economic challenges, not least a challenging fiscal position aggravated by the expansionary budget announced in 2023.

Lack of parliamentary consent has largely insulated the country from the negative impacts of that $153bn budget. That has meant large amounts of planned state spending have not been disbursed, leaving the state finances in better shape than they would have been otherwise.

Fitch Ratings expects that low execution of capital spending and limited transfers to the Kurdistan region will help limit the size of the deficit.

“We expect growth to rebound in 2024 (1.2%), driven by public spending under the expansionary three-year budget and continued recovery in non-oil GDP. We expect non-oil growth to benefit from stronger private consumption, as inflation edges down,” says Mohamed Afifi, Fitch Ratings’ primary analyst for Iraq.

Budget deficit

Even so, reduced oil revenues have impacted Iraq’s economy, turning a budget surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022 into a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023. Fitch sees the fiscal deficit widening, reaching 3.7% in 2024 as declining oil prices and Opec-imposed production cuts drive oil revenue down, while a heavier wage bill pushes expenditure.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also likely to rise in 2024-25, from 43.4% in 2023 to 48.7%, with Fitch attributing this to larger budget deficits that will be funded from borrowing and deposit drawdowns. However, these figures include some $40bn of legacy debt that Iraq faces no pressure to service.

The big concern is that the 2023-25 budget programme will add hundreds of thousands of workers to an already bloated public sector payroll, crowding out the private sector.

“We estimate that the expansionary three-year budget will hinder the private sector’s development by providing a sharp increase in the public workforce,” says Afifi.

“We estimate that the budget will add 600,000 employees, most of which are currently working under temporary contracts, to the public sector payroll. This would bring the public sector wage bill (salaries and pensions) to 25.8% of GDP by 2025, from 15% in 2022.”

As the IMF warned in a March 2024 commentary, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labour force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

In this context, urged the Fund, the Iraqi authorities should seek to enable private sector development, including through labour market reforms, modernisation of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.    

That is a hefty checklist for a country that is still facing myriad security, political and developmental challenges.

Al Sudani can at least counter the gloomier prognoses with the revival in non-oil sector growth, and lower inflation. Real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6% in 2023. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation, according to the IMF.

International reserves increased to $112bn in 2023. Fitch sees FX reserves providing payment coverage above 12 months and a substantial financial buffer until the end of 2025.

Other positives will come through increased foreign direct investment, notably from the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund allocated $3bn for Iraqi investments last year, while Qatar’s Estithmar signed a series of memorandums of understanding worth $7bn in June 2023, covering hotel, real estate and healthcare projects.

Banking reform

One area of focus for the government is its banking sector, which remains underdeveloped and largely unfit for purpose, dominated by state-owned banks with opaque finances.

As Aysegul Ozgur, head of research at Iraq-focused Rabee Securities, says, 93.7% of currency issued was outside banks in Iraq at the end of 2022.

But, says Ozgur, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is looking to strengthen financial inclusion and increase the cash inside the financial system through a series of projects.

“The salary domiciliation project of 2017 is the most prominent one among them, aiming for public sector employees to transfer their salaries to bank accounts by enabling them to receive and withdraw salaries easily through available payment channels (bank branches, ATMs and POS) and providing the ability to obtain credit facilities and bank loans by showing their salaries as collateral,” she says.

A number of other developments underscore the CBI’s concerted efforts to modernise Iraq’s financial landscape and promote economic stability.

“As a measure to control the FX flow into the banking system, the CBI now allows a limited number of banks to participate in the CBI foreign currency window and engage in US dollar transactions,” says Ozgur. “Due to the restricted number of banks permitted to engage in such activities, they benefit from an expanded market share in US dollar transactions.”

The Central Bank has also moved towards tougher oversight of the country’s 61 commercial banking institutions, made up of 54 private banks and seven state banks.

Since the CBI revised the guidelines for foreign currency transactions across borders to curb illicit financial flows in February 2023, says Ozgur, the banks that have direct correspondent banking relationships have played an active role in international money transfers and increased their commission and FX income significantly.

“The outstanding growth in current account deposits with these transfers resulted in significant growth in assets. Bank of Baghdad, National Bank of Iraq and Al-Mansour Bank are among the banks benefiting the most from these developments due to having direct correspondent banking relationships,” says Ozgur.

In February 2024, eight local commercial banks were banned from engaging in US dollar transactions, in a move to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of the greenback. This followed a visit to Baghdad by a senior US Treasury official to Baghdad.

Such moves should, over time, help restore confidence in the financial system and – crucially – help build local insinuations that are credible players in the local economy, able to facilitate Iraq’s private sector growth ambitions, whether domestically or as part of the Iraq Development Road projects.

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11760747/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors submit bids for Saudi gas processing plant project

    8 May 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted bids to Saudi Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company (AGOC) for a project to build an onshore gas processing plant in Saudi Arabia’s Khafji that will draw and process gas from the Dorra offshore gas field, located in waters of the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    MEED previously reported that AGOC had divided the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) on the Khafji gas plant project into seven packages, and issued the main tenders for those last year.

    Contractors were initially set deadlines of 24 October for technical bid submissions and 9 November for commercial bids. AGOC later extended the bid submission deadline to 22 December, and then until 22 April. A final deadline of 30 April was set, with contractors submitting bids by that date, according to sources.

    The seven EPC packages cover works including open-art and licensed process facilities, pipelines, industrial support infrastructure, site preparation, overhead transmission lines, power supply systems and main operational and administrative buildings, with their breakdown as follows:

    • Package 1 – Open-art facilities
    • Package 2 – Licensed facilities
    • Package 3 – Industrial support facilities
    • Package 4 – Pipelines
    • Package 5 – Site preparation
    • Package 6 – Overhead transmission lines plus power supply (from Saudi Electricity Company)
    • Package 7 – Headquarters complex

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been pressing ahead with their plan to jointly produce 1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas from the Dorra gas field.

    The two countries have been producing oil from the Neutral Zone – primarily from the onshore Wafra field and offshore Khafji field – since at least the 1950s. With a growing need to increase natural gas production, they have been working to exploit the Dorra offshore field, understood to be the only gas field in the Neutral Zone.

    Discovered in 1965, the Dorra gas field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic metres of gas and 310 million barrels of oil.

    The Khafji gas plant project is one of three multibillion-dollar projects launched by subsidiaries of Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) to produce and process gas from the Dorra field that has advanced in recent months.

    Dorra field facilities project

    Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO), which is jointly owned by AGOC and KPC subsidiary Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC), has divided the scope of work on the Dorra field facilities project into four EPC packages – three offshore and one onshore.

    India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) won the contract for package one of the Dorra facilities project, which covers the EPC of seven offshore jackets and the laying of intra-field pipelines. The contract awarded by KJO to L&TEH is estimated to be valued at $140m-$150m, MEED reported in October.

    Additionally, Italian, Indian and Spanish contractors have emerged as the lowest bidders for the other three EPC packages that form part of the Dorra facilities project.

    A consortium of Italian contractor Saipem and L&TEH is understood to have submitted the lowest bid for offshore packages 2A and 2B, according to sources. The only other consortium understood to have submitted bids for packages 2A and 2B comprises Abu Dhabi-based NMDC Energy and South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries.

    The EPC scope of work for package 2A includes Dorra gas field wellhead topsides, flowlines and umbilicals. Package 2B involves the central gathering platform complex, export pipelines and cables.

    Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas is understood to have emerged as the lowest bidder for onshore package three, sources told MEED. Package three covers the EPC of onshore gas processing facilities.

    KGOC onshore processing facilities

    The third component of the overall Dorra gas field development programme is a planned onshore gas processing facility to be built in Kuwait, which has been undertaken by KGOC.

    KGOC had been progressing with the front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the project, before the destabilising impact of the US-Israel conflict with Iran compelled the operator to put the project on hold, MEED reported in April.

    The proposed facility, estimated to be worth $3.3bn, will receive gas from a pipeline from the Dorra offshore field, which is being separately developed by KJO. The complex will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cf/d of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra field.

    The facility will be located near the Al-Zour refinery, owned by another KPC subsidiary, Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company.

    A 700,000-square-metre plot has been allocated next to the Al-Zour refinery for the gas processing facility and discussions regarding survey work are ongoing. The site could require shoring, backfilling and dewatering.

    The onshore gas processing plant will also supply surplus gas to KPC’s upstream business, Kuwait Oil Company, for possible injection into its oil fields.

    Additionally, KGOC plans to award licensed technology contracts to US-based Honeywell UOP and Shell subsidiary Shell Catalysts & Technologies for the plant’s acid gas removal unit and sulphur recovery unit, respectively.

    France-based Technip Energies has carried out a concept study and feed work on the entire Dorra gas field development programme.

    Progress has been hampered by a dispute over ownership of the Dorra gas field. Iran, which refers to the field as Arash, claims it partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia maintain that the field lies entirely within their jointly administered Neutral Zone – also known as the Divided Zone – and that Iran has no legal basis for its claim.

    In February 2024, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reiterated their claim to the Dorra field in a joint statement issued during an official meeting in Riyadh between Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud.

    Since that show of strength and unity, projects to produce and process gas from the Dorra field have gained momentum.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16734353/main5834.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Teams prepare bids for Riyadh East sewage treatment plant

    8 May 2026

     

    At least six consortiums are preparing to submit bids for Saudi Arabia's Riyadh East independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) project, according to sources.

    The project will be developed under a build‑own‑operate‑transfer model with a 25‑year concession term.

    The plant will have a treatment capacity of 200,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) in its first phase, expanding to 500,000 cm/d in the second phase.

    MEED understands that the following consortiums are in discussions to submit bids for the project, which has a recently extended bid submission deadline of 30 June:

    • Suez (France) / Civil Works Company (Saudi Arabia) / Alwael (Saudi Arabia)
    • Saur (France) / Samsung E&A (South Korea) / Al-Bawani (Saudi Arabia) / Nesma (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alkhorayef (Saudi Arabia) / GS Inima (Spain)
    • EtihadWE (UAE) / Metito (UAE)
    • Veolia (France) / AlJomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • Miahona (Saudi Arabia) / Marafiq  (Saudi Arabia)

    In December 2025, a group comprising Metito, EtihadWE and SkyBridge was selected as the preferred bidder for the Hadda ISTP project. Miahona, Marafiq Company and Buhur for Investment was selected as the reserved bidder.

    That same month, the Miahona-led consortium was selected as preferred bidder for the Arana ISTP and the Metito-led consortium was selected as the reserved bidder. Both projects have yet to reach financial close.

    The Riyadh East, Hadda and Arana ISTPs are being undertaken by state water offtaker Sharakat, formerly Saudi Water Partnership Company, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP.

    In 2024, Sharakat prequalified 53 companies that could bid for the Riyadh East ISTP, part of seven planned ISTP projects it said it would procure between 2024 and 2026. The request for proposals was issued last October. 

    WSP is the technical adviser and KPMG Middle East is the lead and financial adviser on the project.

    The targeted commercial operation date for the facility is 2029.

    ISTP plans

    According to Sharakat’s recent seven-year statement, it has identified six additional large ISTPs in the development pipeline.

    These are:

    • Kharj (75,000 cm/d)
    • Abu Arish (50,000 cm/d)
    • Hafar Al-Batin (100,000 cm/d)
    • Riyadh North (TBD)
    • Najran South (50,000 cm/d)
    • Khamis Mushait (50,000 cm/d)

    The company is also pursuing a nationwide small sewage treatment plant programme covering about 139 smaller ISTPs grouped into seven clusters.

    These are designed to add about 521,450 cm/d of additional treatment capacity across the kingdom.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16734156/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia tenders Jeddah-Mecca highway PPP

    8 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Roads General Authority (RGA) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have tendered the contract for the development of the Jeddah-Mecca highway project.

    The tender was issued on 19 April, with a bid submission deadline of 19 August.

    The scope of the tender is split into two sections: development of motor service areas (MSA) and highway services. 

    Under the MSA component, the company will develop, permit, finance, design, engineer, procure, construct, complete, test, commission, insure, operate and maintain three MSAs along the highway.

    The contract term is 25 years, including two years of the construction period.

    Each MSA plot will cover 34,500 square metres and will include facilities such as fuel stations, electric vehicle charging, truck services, tyre and oil change, car wash and repair, retail and food outlets, ATMs, restrooms, mosques, parking, landscaping and other associated utilities.

    The highway services component will include insurance, operation and maintenance of highway assets for 10 years.

    The 64-kilometre (km) Jeddah-Mecca highway has four lanes in each direction. The construction works on 51km are complete, while the rest is under construction and scheduled for completion in 2027.

    In March, the RGA and NCP prequalified three bidders to develop the project. These were:

    • Algihaz Holding / ICA Construction (local/Turkiye)
    • Lamar Holding / Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation (Bahrain/China)
    • Mada International Holding (local)

    The expression of interest notice for the project was first issued in October 2024, as MEED reported.

    The project is one of four planned highway schemes in the kingdom’s privatisation and public-private partnership (P&PPP) pipeline.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16731199/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • US sanctions Iraq’s deputy oil minister

    8 May 2026

    The US has sanctioned Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, in another blow for the country’s oil and gas sector.

    In a statement released by the US Treasury, it said that he “abuses his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq”.

    The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) has also designated three senior leaders of the militias Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. 

    In its statement, it said that the US will continue to hold these groups and other militias in Iraq, such as Kata’ib Hizballah, accountable for their attacks against US personnel and civilians, diplomatic facilities and businesses across Iraq.

    Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, said: “Like a rogue gang, the Iranian regime is pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people.”

    He added: “Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran's military exploits Iraqi oil to fund terrorism against the United States and our partners.”

    Ofac said that it designated Iraq’s deputy minister of oil on 7 May because he had been “instrumental in facilitating the diversion of Iraqi oil products to benefit known Iran-affiliated oil smuggler Salim Ahmed Said, as well as Iran-backed terrorist militia Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH)”.

    It added: “For years, Maarij has used his official positions, first as the head of the Iraqi parliament’s oil and gas committee, and then within the Iraq Ministry of Oil, to enrich Said, AAH, and by extension, Iran.”

    The US Treasury said that it designated Said in June 2025 for running a network of companies selling Iranian oil falsely declared as Iraqi oil to avoid sanctions.

    In its statement, it said: “Integral to this operation was Said’s ability to obtain favoured access to Iraqi oil and procure forged documentation from Iraqi government officials, legitimising illicit oil.

    “To that end, Said was responsible for bribing complicit officials in the Iraqi government, as well as reportedly installing Maarij in his official position.”

    Since 2018, Maarij has held several positions in Iraq’s Oil Ministry, including head of the licensing and contracts office, deputy minister, and acting oil minister. 

    The US Treasury said that, in his official capacities, Maarij enabled Said to illicitly procure oil products by granting exportation rights to Said’s companies. 

    It claimed that Maarij authorised trucking several million dollars’ worth of oil a day from the Qayarah oil field to VS Oil Terminal in Khor Zubayr for export.

    The US sanctioned VS Oil Terminal in July last year.

    The US Treasury said that VS Oil oversaw the mixing of Iranian oil with Iraqi oil before being shipped to market. 

    It also said that Maarij is also responsible for falsifying documentation on the provenance of oil for Said’s network, enabling it to be smuggled to market disguised as purely Iraqi oil.

    Neither Iraq nor Iran has responded to the announcement of the new sanctions.

    The sanctions were announced as the US and Iran battle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen significant disruption to shipping since the US and Israel started their war with Iran on 28 February 2026.

    Iraq’s oil and gas sector is currently going through a crisis due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the country’s oil exports to collapse.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16729987/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Sabic registers profit in first quarter of 2026

    8 May 2026

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profit in the first quarter of 2026, posting a net income of SR13.2m ($3.52m) compared to a SR1.21bn loss a year earlier. 

    The Saudi petrochemicals ​giant posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of SR4.15bn for the three months to 31 March, up 25% from the previous quarter.

    The company’s revenue fell 6% quarter-on-quarter to SR26.15bn ($6.97m).

    Adjusted net income was recorded in at SR816m, compared to a loss in the previous quarter, while adjusted earnings per share stood at SR0.27.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose to SR1.45bn, an increase of SR1.01bn from the prior quarter.

    Sabic said its net position shifted to a debt of SR2.77bn at the end of March, from a net cash position of SR3.61bn at the end of 2025.

    “Our transformation journey continues to deliver performance improvements that unlock greater value for our shareholders. We realised $220m at the Ebitda level on a recurring basis during the first quarter of 2026, in line with our planned improvement rate. This keeps us on track towards our cumulative 2030 annual target of $3bn, consisting of $1.4bn in cost excellence and $1.6bn in value creation,” Sabic CEO Faisal Alfaqeer said.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16719476/main1840.jpg
    Indrajit Sen