Hydrocarbons exploration rebounds
1 March 2023
MEED's upstream oil & gas report also includes: Energy security facilitates upstream spending
The world, and particularly countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, remains undeterred in its quest to find more oil and gas resources, despite headwinds from energy transition activity and falling long-term hydrocarbons demand forecasts.
Last year, the global oil and gas exploration sector had its strongest year in more than a decade. In its effort to improve portfolios by adding lower-carbon, lower-cost advantaged hydrocarbons, the sector created at least $33bn of value and achieved full-cycle returns of 22 per cent, at $60-a-barrel Brent prices, according to a recent report from Wood Mackenzie.
Julie Wilson, director of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie, says 2022 was “a standout year for exploration”.
“Volumes were good, but not stellar. However, explorers were able to drive very high value through strategic selection and by focusing on the best and largest prospects.
“The discoveries bring higher-quality hydrocarbons into companies’ portfolios, allowing them to reduce carbon by displacing less advantaged oil and gas supplies while also meeting the world’s energy needs.
“The highest value came from world-class discoveries in a new deepwater play in Namibia, as well as resource additions in Algeria and several new deepwater discoveries in Guyana and Brazil, where the latest wave of pre-salt exploration finally met with success,” she says.
“The average discovery last year was over 150 million barrels of oil equivalent, more than double the average of the previous decade,” she adds.
The exploration sector continues to be dominated by national oil companies (NOCs) and majors, with QatarEnergy, France-headquartered TotalEnergies and Brazil’s Petrobras leading the way in net new discovered resources in 2022, according to Wood Mackenzie. In total, NOCs and majors accounted for almost three-quarters of new resources discovered, the research consultancy said.
Qatar’s overseas footprint
In addition to raising gas production capacity from the North Field gas reserve and carrying out a liquefied natural gas (LNG) output expansion programme, QatarEnergy has been pursuing an overseas offshore oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) campaign in recent years.
The state enterprise has been investing in expanding its international upstream footprint, particularly in the gas space. In the past five years, QatarEnergy has acquired interests in gas-rich offshore blocks in Angola, Guyana, Kenya, Egypt, South Africa, Argentina, Mozambique, Morocco, Cyprus, Mexico, Brazil, Oman, Suriname and Canada.
In December, QatarEnergy won an offshore exploration block in Brazil in a consortium with TotalEnergies and Malaysia’s Petronas. QatarEnergy will hold a 20 per cent working interest in the Agua-Marinha production sharing contract, with TotalEnergies holding 30 per cent and Petronas Petroleo Brasil holding 20 per cent. Brazil’s state energy producer ANP will be the operator of the block, with a 30 per cent interest.
QatarEnergy also recently acquired a 30 per cent interest in exploration blocks four and nine off the coast of Lebanon. TotalEnergies is the operator of the blocks, holding a 35 per cent interest, with Italy’s Eni owning the remaining 35 per cent.
Oman E&P arena
Oman hosts the most foreign hydrocarbons E&P companies in the GCC. Majors such as BP, Shell and TotalEnergies have been present in the sultanate since the early 20th century, while smaller international upstream players have also been looking for – and producing – oil and gas for the past three decades.
The majority state-owned Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) operates the sultanate’s biggest and most prolific hydrocarbons concession, block six. The smaller oil and gas concession areas are operated by firms headquartered overseas such as Eni, Occidental Petroleum, Tethys Oil and Maha Energy, as well as by local firms such as ARA Petroleum, Majan Energy & Petroleum and Musandam Oil & Gas Company.
Oman’s Energy & Minerals Ministry signed a concession agreement in December 2021 with a consortium led by Shell’s Oman subsidiary, Shell Integrated Gas Oman, to develop and produce natural gas from block 10 of the Saih Rawl gas field.
The consortium comprises Omani state energy enterprise OQ and Marsa LNG, a joint venture of France’s TotalEnergies and OQ. The concession agreement established Shell as the operator of block 10.
By late January, Shell had started producing gas from the Mabrouk North East field located in block 10.
In September last year, the Omani energy ministry signed another E&P agreement with Shell and France’s TotalEnergies to develop block 11, which is located adjacent to block 10 and is understood to be rich in natural gas reserves.
Shell and TotalEnergies will own 67.5 per cent and 22.5 per cent stakes in block 11, respectively, with OQ holding the other 10 per cent. Shell is the operator with the majority stake in the concession.
UAE makes strides
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has completed two upstream concession licensing rounds in the past
four years, attracting oil and gas producing companies from the US, Italy, Pakistan, India, Thailand and Japan to explore for resources.
Offshore block two, which is operated by Italian energy major Eni with Thailand’s state-owned PTT Exploration & Production Public Company (PTTEP), has so far yielded two discoveries with combined estimated reserves of up to 3 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas.
In addition, in May last year, Adnoc announced the discovery of 650 million barrels of onshore crude oil reserves in Abu Dhabi, which increased the UAE’s hydrocarbons reserves base to 111 billion stock tank barrels of oil and 289 tcf of gas.
Adnoc also awarded Malaysia’s Petronas a six-year concession agreement in December to explore and appraise oil in unconventional onshore block one, deemed to be the Middle East’s first unconventional oil concession.
In Sharjah, Eni won stakes in all three upstream concession areas offered by Sharjah National Oil Company (SNOC) to international investors in the emirate’s first competitive hydrocarbons block bidding round, launched in June 2018.
In January 2019, Eni successfully secured 75 per cent, 50 per cent and 75 per cent stakes in SNOC’s concession areas A, B and C, respectively.
Then, in October last year, PTTEP acquired a 25 per cent stake from Eni in area A, as a result of which Eni’s share in all three concession zones is now at 50 per cent.
Sharjah’s oil and gas fortunes reversed in January 2021, when SNOC, together with its partner Eni, announced the start-up of the Mahani 1 gas well. This marked the commencement of gas production from the Mahani field, located in area B, the first such onshore hydrocarbons discovery made in Sharjah in 37 years.
Energy security facilitates upstream spending
Bahrain labours on
Bahrain announced the discovery of the large Khalij al-Bahrain offshore hydrocarbons basin – estimated to contain 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas – in April 2018.
Nearly five years later, Manama has been unable to make significant progress on the commercial appraisal of the oil and gas resources base. However, the lack of success with Khalij al-Bahrain has not deterred the country from continuing its exploration elsewhere.
In November, state energy conglomerate Nogaholding announced the discovery of natural gas in the two reservoirs of Al-Jawf and Al-Juba. The gas deposits are unconventional and situated in the Khuff and Unayzah geological formations.
Mena players make progress
Iraq, Opec’s second-largest oil producer, continues to seek more hydrocarbons resources in its territory. As recently as in February, the Oil Ministry awarded six oil concessions as part of the country’s fifth licensing round.
Three E&P concessions – one in Basra and two in Diyala governorates – were awarded to UAE-based Crescent Petroleum. Three others, also in Basra and Diyala, were awarded to China’s Geo-Jade Petroleum.
Eni’s discovery of the large Zohr gas field in the Mediterranean waters in 2015 elevated Egypt’s status as a significant upstream market globally, and the country’s government intends to continue to attract more E&P players on the back of this success.
Egypt’s hydrocarbons reserves spiked in 2022 with 53 new oil and gas discoveries: 42 oil wells and 11 gas wells, according to the Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry. The discoveries were made in Egypt’s Western Desert region, the Suez Gulf, the Mediterranean Sea and the Nile Delta.
So far in 2023, US-based Chevron, which operates the Nargis offshore concession in the East Mediterranean, together with its partners Eni and Egypt’s Tharwa Petroleum, has announced a discovery of Miocene and Oligocene gas-bearing sandstones.
At the start of this year, Egypt also launched an international licensing round for exploration rights in the Nile Delta and the Mediterranean, comprising 12 onshore and offshore blocks.
“There is a lot of uncertainty in future long-term demand scenarios for oil,” says Wilson.
“Explorers are accelerating oil exploration to meet near- and mid-term demand, while gas exploration was focused in geographies that can supply the gas-hungry European market. In some cases, major leases are approaching the expiration of the exploration term and companies are pushing to optimise their value.”
She concludes: “By 2030, fast-tracked development of these new discoveries could deliver 1 million barrels a day in oil and half a million barrels a day of equivalent gas production, generating $15bn in free cash flow.”
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UK-headquartered Petrofac has completed the sale of Petrofac Emirates, a business unit it established in Abu Dhabi in 2008.
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Leadership role
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Restructuring disruption
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Middle East stocks recover unevenly
1 June 2026
The combined market capitalisation of the MEED Top 100 largest listed companies in the Middle East and North Africa rose to $3.73tn in mid-May 2026, against $3.48tn a year earlier – a 7.2% gain that recovers most of the value lost in the prior two years’ editions. The aggregate is not the story.
Saudi Aramco recovered by $181bn, rising from $1.64tn to $1.82tn and providing substantial support to the aggregate Top 100 valuation. The broader movements in the list differentiated along sectoral lines, with key trends including the continued growth of regional banks, the upward repricing for fertiliser and logistics names amid the Hormuz crisis, and the correction of Saudi mid-tier stocks as valuation peaks have failed to hold.
Oil and gas reweights
Aramco’s share price recovered from about SR25 to SR30, lifting the company’s market cap by 11% and raising the oil and gas sector’s share of the list back to 54.5%.
The company reported first-quarter 2026 net profit of $32.5bn, up 25%, on revenue of $115.5bn – giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18, in line with the Saudi market average as of April.
Aramco’s diversion of crude to Yanbu through its 7 million-barrels-a-day West-to-East pipeline has supported a higher volume of sales at the now elevated prices compared to its Gulf peers, the exports of which have been more seriously affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Other Saudi names also benefiting from this combination of ongoing access through Yanbu and energy repricing produced the cleanest gains, with Rabigh Refining more than doubling in value to $11.7bn despite a $1.1bn loss, Ades Holding rising 40% to $5.8bn, Luberef rising 28% to $5.8bn and Yansab also seeing double-digit returns.
In the UAE, by contrast, Adnoc Gas has remained broadly flat at $66.7bn, with its Q1 2026 net income dropping 15% and conflict damage estimates indicating that full capacity will not be restored until 2027. Borouge meanwhile held, while Adnoc Drilling and Adnoc Distribution gained by 14% and 8%, respectively.
There was some slippage in the petrochemicals sub-cluster, with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) posting a net loss of $6.96bn and sliding 3%, alongside a 2% slide for the energy sector-adjacent Industries Qatar.
Banking and industry
The banking sector, which accounts for 33 of the 100 entries and 18% of the list by value, expanded by an aggregate 6.3% in absolute terms. Al-Rajhi Bank, the largest banking entry at $107.9bn, reported FY2025 net profit up 26% to SR24.8bn ($6.6bn); total assets passed SR1tn for the first time and Q1 2026 net profit rose a further 14%.
Emirates NBD, up 23% year-on-year to $47.1bn, reported FY2025 record profit before tax of AED29.8bn ($8.1bn) and likewise crossed AED1tn in total assets.
Kuwait Finance House also rose by 19%, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 19% to $28.7bn and Saudi National Bank 11%. Qatar National Bank stalled and slid 1%, while several smaller banks saw gains. Egypt’s Commercial International Bank rose 74% to $8.4bn off a depressed base, Jordan’s Arab Bank meanwhile rose 55%, Oman’s Bank Muscat by 52% and RakBank by 32%.
Several sectors have gained significantly owing to their direct exposure to the Iran conflict’s supply-chain repricing, including logistics, fertilisers and mining.
Logistics firms in the list gained 44% in absolute terms, with Saudi Arabia’s Bahri reporting Q1 2026 net profits up 303% year and revenue up 129%.
Marsa Maroc, the Casablanca-listed port operator, also entered the list at $6.6bn, up 85% on an African expansion that spans 34 terminals across 20 ports following a Liberia management deal signed in February.
Adnoc Logistics rose 32% to $11.6bn, while Air Arabia, the Sharjah-based low-cost carrier, joined the list at $6.1bn as it absorbed redirected long-haul flows. Nakilat, the Qatari liquefied natural gas shipping operator, was the sector’s sole softener, down 12% on slower throughput.
Mining and fertiliser entries sit alongside the logistics gainers. Jordan Phosphate Mines is the cleanest single expression of the post-Hormuz repricing visible on the list – up 127% year on year to $13.2bn, as the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects fertiliser prices to rise nearly 31% in 2026.
Maaden rose 23% to $65.3bn after FY2025 net profit jumped 156%, backed by record phosphate production; high aluminium output; and rising silver, copper and aluminium prices linked to artificial intelligence, data centre, solar and electric vehicle demand.
Morocco’s Managem also entered the list at $19.7bn, having almost tripled in value in the past two years on cobalt, silver and copper prices and African expansion.
Sabic Agri-Nutrients rose 44% on a 30% 2025 net profit increase, while Fertiglobe rose by 40% – both potentially anticipating a 60% forecasted rise in urea prices.
Property and other trends
The direction of the property and real estate sector has been uniformly downward. The Iran conflict has driven both a slump in UAE property sales and prices and a similar tourism-adjacent correction in Saudi Arabia. Both the Mecca-focused Umm Al-Qura and Jabal Omar development firms have seen their valuations slashed by more than a third, while Makkah Construction & Development slid by 15%.
The UAE’s Emaar Properties and Dar Al-Arkan and Qatar’s Ezdan Holding have also all seen slides of more than 15%. Kuwait’s Mabanee, which rose by 22%, is the one exception in the sector.
In Saudi Arabia’s mid-tier, Acwa Power shed 29% in value even as its revenue rose 18% and its net income 5.4%. Elm Company likewise shed 33%, Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib 19% and the Saudi Tadawul Group 21%.
Mouwasat Medical Services, MBC Group, Nahdi Medical and Saudi Logistics Services fell out of the list entirely on the same trajectory. Each had reported FY2025 earnings rises before the decline. What corrected was the valuation, not the operations.
Acwa Power’s trailing four-quarter average price-to-earnings ratio was 166x, and even after this year’s decline sits at 88x against the Saudi market average of 17.8x. Elm sits at 26x, Al-Habib at 33x, Saudi Tadawul Group at 42x – all rich by any comparable benchmark.
Many of these entries have fallen away from their peak valuations as the cooling of the gigaproject programme since early 2025 has undermined sentiment.
One example that sits on the same axis from the UAE side is Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), which fell by 28% from $95.3bn to $69.0bn despite a 6% net income rise, even as capital expenditure also expanded by 50%.
There are now nine entries from Morocco’s Casablanca bourse against six a year ago, with an aggregate value of $74.7bn, up from $50.8bn. Industrial contractor Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc,entered via a December 2025 initial public offering (IPO). Several Moroccan stocks have also slipped, however, including Taqa Morocco, down 42%; Maroc Telecom, down 18%; Banque Populaire, down 13%; and Bank of Africa, down 10%.
There has been a similarly divergent trend among 2024 IPO entrants. While OQ Exploration & Production rose 68% to $10.1bn and is now the largest stock on the Muscat Securities Market, the UAE’s Talabat – 2024’s second-largest IPO at $9.2bn – has corrected 33% to $6.1bn.
The Multiply Group has been replaced on the list through its November 2025 merger into 2PointZero Group, which now sits in the top 30 entries at $19.6bn.
Regional repricing
Four trends underpin the list’s 7.2% recovery. The conflict has repriced specific cohorts sharply higher – logistics up 44%, mining and fertilisers up 43%, the Yanbu refiners returning, and Aramco recovering to $181bn – with gains contingent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
Regional banks have maintained last year’s momentum, with assets crossing trillion-unit thresholds and loan books supported by project activity. Six names have posted double-digit gains that are unlikely to reverse if conditions normalise.
Saudi mid-tier stocks have corrected largely on valuation rather than operations, despite many reporting earnings growth through 2025, as confidence in gigaproject-driven growth has weakened. Property has also softened in the region as conflict has reduced routine and religious tourism.
The 12-month outlook depends on whether Hormuz reopens, whether Saudi mid-tier valuations stabilise, and whether banking expansion holds under broader repricing.
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Developers win deals for $3.5bn of Mecca projects
1 June 2026
The Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites has awarded six real estate development deals. The projects, which cover a total land area exceeding 2.7 million square metres (sq m), will require a total investment of SR13.3bn ($3.5bn).
The sites are located within the neighbourhoods of Jurhum South, Al-Khalidiyah, Al-Hajlah, Al-Hindawiyah East, Al-Hindawiyah South and Al-Hindawiyah West. The projects will be delivered as partnerships with domestic real estate developers, institutional investors and dedicated private investment funds.
A consortium consisting of Makkah Construction & Development Company, Umm Al-Qura for Development & Construction Company and Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company will develop the Hindawiya West and Hindawiya South districts, which have a combined area of nearly 1.15 million sq m, adjacent to the Masar Destination project. The consortium informed the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) that it received letters of award for the project on 31 May.
The initial cost of the project is estimated at SR6bn. Umm Al-Qura will act as the consortium leader and development manager, while Makkah Construction & Development Company will serve as the financial partner. The infrastructure works will be executed by Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company as the technical partner, with the entire development financed through a private, closed-ended real estate investment fund overseen by a Capital Market Authority-licensed manager.
A consortium comprising First Avenue for Real Estate Development Company, Dar Al-Majed Real Estate Company and Rekaz Real Estate Company has been awarded the concession for the East Hindawiyah site. Located 1.8 kilometres from the Holy Grand Mosque, the 235,000 sq m plot is expected to cost SR2bn to develop, which includes land acquisition and foundational infrastructure. The development will be structured as a real estate investment fund managed by Jadwa Investment, with the ultimate goal of creating an integrated urban destination featuring retail, office, hospitality and residential components. The final contract signing for this deal is expected by 10 June 2026.
Ladun Investment Company, in partnership with Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting Company, has signed a deal for the Al-Khalidiyah district. With a targeted sales value exceeding SR6bn, the consortium will establish a closed-ended private real estate investment fund to execute extensive infrastructure works, subdivide the land plots, and handle subsequent marketing and sales. The detailed scope of works involves complete engineering designs, public park planning and utility coordination with entities such as National Water Company and Saudi Electricity Company, before a contract is signed by 9 June.
Saudi property dreams: Read the January 2026 MEED Business Review
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