Heady times for biggest construction markets
22 December 2023
It was a whirlwind couple of months at the end of 2023 with major global announcements that will positively impact the region’s largest construction market for years to come.
On 31 October, Saudi Arabia was effectively confirmed as the 2034 Fifa World Cup host after the only other potential bidder for the tournament withdrew from the race.
Then, on 28 November, Saudi Arabia was selected as the host country for the World Expo 2030 after securing 72 per cent of the votes cast by Bureau International des Expositions member states.
Recent experience from elsewhere in the GCC has shown that hosting these events comes with a plethora of construction projects.
Qatar invested billions of dollars in infrastructure ahead of the Fifa World Cup 2022; similarly, Dubai spent heavily on infrastructure for Expo 2020.
Crucially, these events, global pandemics withstanding, are immovable deadlines that must be met, which means construction projects have to be delivered on time.
Significant undertakings
While the investment required for the 2034 World Cup remains to be determined, the Saudi bid must include a minimum of 14 all-seater stadiums, of which at least four should be existing structures. The capacity needed is at least 80,000 seats for the opening and final matches, and at least 60,000 seats for the semi-finals. For all other matches, a minimum of 40,000 seats are necessary.
Meanwhile, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, which led the Expo 2030 bid, has said the Expo site masterplan, which is located north of Riyadh close to King Khalid International airport, will cost $7.8bn to develop.
While both programmes of work are significant undertakings, they are not expected to be as transformative for the Saudi economy as they were for Qatar and Dubai, which were both smaller and dwindling construction markets when they secured the rights to host their events.
The same cannot be said for Saudi Arabia, where the construction market is already overheated as construction activity ramps up on a series of self-styled gigaprojects, including Neom, Diriyah Gate and Qiddiya, that aim to transform the economy as part of Vision 2030.
In a report on the Saudi economy released on 2 November, London-based Capital Economics said: “We don’t expect this to be the fillip to the Saudi economy as it was for Qatar, which hosted the World Cup in 2022.
“First, Saudi Arabia already has much of the infrastructure in place, including stadiums, meaning there is unlikely to be a World Cup-related construction boom like Qatar saw.
“Second, even with 104 games scheduled compared to 64 in Qatar, tournament-related tourism spending we estimate could be equal to just 2 per cent of non-hydrocarbon GDP (compared to 6 per cent in Qatar).”
Capital Economics made similar comments on the impact of the 2030 Expo.
In a report issued on 30 November, it said: “[While] hosting the event may support the kingdom’s longer-term goals of boosting tourism, it is highly unlikely that the Expo itself will provide a boost to the economy of the same magnitude as it did in Dubai.
“The Saudi economy is 10 times larger than that of Dubai, so even a similar sized nominal impact will be a much smaller boost as a share of GDP.”
In terms of construction and transport awards, 2023 has been the best year in recent times and could potentially be the best year on record.
By 1 December, there had been $36.3bn of construction and transport awards in Saudi Arabia, which already exceeds the 2022 total of $35.7bn. The record was achieved in 2013 when there were $41.7bn of contract awards, with a significant portion coming from the $23bn of contracts signed that year for the six lines of the Riyadh metro system.
UAE in 2023
It was also a good 2023 for the UAE, which recorded its best contract awards total in over a decade. There were $34.3bn of contract awards by 1 December 2023, higher than the 2014 high of $34.1bn, but still significantly short of 2008, when there were $40.2bn of construction and transport contract awards.
The UAE’s strongly performing property market has driven the country’s construction sector.
Next year, spending on projects by the government and its related entities will play a larger role as tendering starts for projects such as the $4.9bn extension to Dubai Metro’s Blue Line.
Runners up
For the other four GCC markets, the performance in 2023 and outlook for 2024 is more subdued. The hope is that as activity continues in the region’s two largest markets, the others will follow with ambitious projects. There are tentative signs that this is starting to happen as major projects restart or move into tendering.
The region’s other major construction market is Egypt. This year, its performance has stuttered as the total value of contract awards fell to $9.1bn from $29bn. As the economy continues to struggle with ongoing currency issues, the outlook for 2024 is subdued.
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Dubai prequalifies developers for $22bn tunnels PPP
6 February 2025
Dubai Municipality has prequalified developers for the first four packages of the $22bn Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels (DSST) project.
According to industry sources, at least three companies have been prequalified as lead members of potential consortiums that can bid for the contracts.
These include:
- Etihad Water & Electricity subsidiary (local)
- Itochu (Japan)
- Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia)
Other companies have been prequalified as technical members.
MEED reported in October that over a dozen companies were keen to prequalify as investors or sponsors of the planned public-private partnership (PPP) project.
They included:
- Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Investments Manager (UK)
- Besix (Belgium)
- China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
- China Railway Engineering Group (CREG)
- China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China)
- Itochu (Japan)
- Nesma Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Plenary (Australia)
- Samsung C&T (South Korea)
- Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia)
- Webuild (Italy)
The request for proposals for the project's first two packages is expected to be issued imminently.
MEED previously reported that the bidders for the PPP packages will be prequalified consortiums comprised of sponsors or investors, EPC contractors, and operations and maintenance contractors.
The overall project will require a capital expenditure of about AED30bn ($8bn), while the whole-life cost over the full concession terms of the entire project is estimated to reach AED80bn.
The investor prequalification process for the scheme comes after the client prequalified EPC contractors that can partner with the developers or investors to bid for the contracts.
MEED understands that packages J1 and W will be tendered together as separate contracts first, followed by J2 and J3, with the requests for proposals to be issued sequentially, staggered about six to 12 months apart.
DSST packages
Under the current plan, the $22bn DSST project is broken down into six packages, which will be tendered as PPP packages with concession periods lasting between 25 and 35 years.
The first package, J1, comprises Jebel Ali tunnels (North) and terminal pump stations (TPS). The tunnels will extend approximately 42 kilometres (km), and the links will extend 10km.
The second package, J2, covers the southern section of the Jebel Ali tunnels, which will extend 16km and have a link stretching 46km.
The third package, W for Warsan, comprises 16km of tunnels, TPS and 46km of links.
J3, the fourth package, comprises 129km of links.
J1, J2, W and J3 will comprise the deep sewerage tunnels, links and TPS (TLT) components of the overall project.
J1, J2 and W will be procured under a design-build-finance-operate-maintain model with a concession period of 25-35 years.
J3 will be procured under a design-build-finance model with a concession period of 25-35 years. Once completed, Dubai Municipality will operate J3, unlike the first three packages, which are planned to be operated and maintained by the winning PPP contractors.
The project’s remaining two packages entail expanding and upgrading the Jebel Ali and Warsan sewage treatment plants. MEED understands that these packages will be procured at a later stage.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13370610/main.jpg -
Iraq and GE Vernova complete plants upgrade
6 February 2025
US-headquartered energy technology provider GE Vernova has completed the upgrades of “several key” power plants in Iraq.
The firm and the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity (MoE) announced the upgrade’s completion on 5 February.
The overall upgrade project, which GE Vernova previously announced, covers 46 gas turbines across 12 power plants, adding up to 500MW to Iraq’s national grid before the summer of 2025.
They did not specify which power plants have completed upgrade works.
According to GE, some of the power plants included in this project already transitioned from heavy fuel oil (HFO) to natural gas, with a capacity increase of approximately 260MW. These plants include Ninawa, Al-Diwaniyah, Hilla, Karbala, Shat Al-Basra, Najibiya, Samawa, Dhiqar, Al-Khairat and Al-Haidariya.
GE Vernova added: “The other plants are expected to be modernised within the summer of 2025, with an expected additional increase in capacity of approximately 250MW.
“This modernisation is expected to improve operational flexibility and boost output, efficiency and availability of the power generation assets.”
In addition, the firm announced the successful installation of its Advanced Gas Path (AGP) upgrades on several 9. E gas turbines powering the Al-Quds and Dhiqar power plants, and MXLII upgrades on 13E2 gas turbines powering the Al-Mansouriya power plant.
According to GE Vernova, the expected output increases of up to 6% for each power plant will enable the MoE to generate more electricity using the same amount of fuel.
In addition, as part of the services and upgrade agreement announced in 2024 with the MoE to enhance the availability of power plants across the country, GE Vernova completed comprehensive maintenance projects across several of these power plants, corresponding to a total capacity of 3.7GW.
These power plants include Qayyarah, Diwaniyah, Al-Haydariyah and Baghdad South.
Iraq periodically suffers from power outages, especially during the summer months, when increased cooling requirements overwhelm its power plants and electricity grid.
READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW
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Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:
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Bankability remains hydrogen’s unbreakable challenge
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Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editorThere is some indication that green hydrogen as an industry has arrived at the valley of disillusionment if the Gartner hype cycle is anything to go by.
This is evident with the dwindling number of attendees and absence of offtakers – global commodity trading companies that are expected to buy premium green hydrogen and derivative products – at previously well-attended green hydrogen summits in major cities in the Gulf.
Following frenzied announcements of multibillion-dollar integrated green hydrogen and ammonia plants in the Middle East and North Africa region, particularly Egypt, Morocco, Oman and the UAE, between 2021 and 2023, it appears that key stakeholders have started coming to grips with reality.
Of the close to 80 green hydrogen projects that MEED and MEED Projects track, only three have so far signed an offtake agreement, and only one has managed to reach financial close.
The $8.4bn Neom green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia reached financial close in March 2023, nearly two years after it was announced.
The project, the largest of its kind requiring over 4GW of renewable energy and 2GW of electrolyser capacity, managed to reach financial close based on one of the three co-developers, the US’ Air Products, assuming the full offtake and construction risks for the project, note some experts.
A project’s bankability ultimately relies on suitable stakeholders taking on the risks for every aspect of the project, from construction to operations.
Currently, the risks or threats include evolving global regulations related to consumption and carbon emissions pricing; lack of technology maturity; supply and demand uncertainty; and the lack of mainstream demand, according to Wael Almazeedi, chief executive at Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Certification (I-rec) certified firm Avance Energy.
Almazeedi said these risks “need to be mitigated to the satisfaction of project lenders” if the planned green hydrogen projects in the region are to secure financing and reach the construction phase.
The challenges do not necessarily mean all projects will fail, however.
Similar to predecessors such as solar and electrification technologies, the hope is for the planned green hydrogen projects to eventually emerge out of the realm of disillusionment and reach the so-called enlightenment slope and, ultimately, plateaus of productivity, using Gartner’s hype cycle model.
Government support in terms of regulatory frameworks, inevitably including some form of subsidies to bridge the so-called green premium, as well as global certification standards, are at the top of suppliers’ agendas.
Across the key aspiring Mena clean hydrogen hubs, like the UAE in particular, clearer regulatory frameworks have started to emerge, which could encourage more cohesive cooperation and enable projects to get off the ground.
Key EU countries also appear to remain committed to clean and green hydrogen imports as part of the green deal, while at least one power plant in Japan has completed a three-month trial of co-firing green ammonia with coal “with positive results”.
But until all these come together to ensure an unencumbered global supply chain, offtakers and project financing deals will likely remain elusive.
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Morocco explores salt caverns for hydrogen storage
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A feasibility study is under way for a project to explore underground salt cavern sites for green hydrogen storage in Morocco.
According to Samir Rachidi, director-general at Iresen, the underground salt caverns are located near the capital Casablanca.
“There is already an existing cavity used to store natural gas,” Rachidi told MEED.
It is understood the same process or principle will be used to store green hydrogen in salt caverns.
The potential storage capacity of the salt caverns for green hydrogen can only be determined once the feasibility study is completed.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
Underground salt caverns offer an option for the bulk storage of very large amounts of gaseous hydrogen.
According to Ireland-headquartered chemicals firm Linde, which operates the world’s first commercial hydrogen high-purity cavern in Texas, the gas has to be purified and compressed before it can be injected into a cavern.
It added that hydrogen-filled cavities can act as a backup for a pipeline network.
First green ammonia project
Rachidi also said that Moroccan phosphate specialist OCP is in the advanced stages of studying a project to produce 1 million tonnes of green ammonia annually by 2027.
The planned facility, which will cater to export markets, will include a 200,000 tonne-a-year (t/y) green hydrogen production plant and 4,000MW of renewable energy plants.
It will also include an electrolyser plant with a capacity of 2,000MW.
At least seven other green hydrogen or ammonia projects are under study or in the pre-front-end engineering and design stage in the North African state.
In April 2023, a team led by China Energy International Construction Group signed a memorandum of cooperation to develop a green hydrogen project in a coastal area in southern Morocco.
A year earlier, Serbia-headquartered renewables developer and investor CWP Global appointed US firm Bechtel to support the development of large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia facilities in Morocco and Mauritania.
The Amun green hydrogen project, which CWP Global plans to develop in Morocco, is understood to require 15GW of renewable energy and has an estimated budget of between $18bn and $20bn.
Morocco established a National Hydrogen Commission in 2019 and published a green hydrogen roadmap in 2021.
The roadmap entails the production of green hydrogen for local ammonia production and export between 2020 and 2030; the production and export of green hydrogen, green ammonia and synthetic fuels between 2030 and 2040; and the global trade of these products between 2040 and 2050.
Main photo: For illustrative purposes only (Adnoc)
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Qatar maintains stable growth heading
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> DATABANK: Qatar maintains stable growth headinghttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13369431/main.gif