Heady times for biggest construction markets
22 December 2023
It was a whirlwind couple of months at the end of 2023 with major global announcements that will positively impact the region’s largest construction market for years to come.
On 31 October, Saudi Arabia was effectively confirmed as the 2034 Fifa World Cup host after the only other potential bidder for the tournament withdrew from the race.
Then, on 28 November, Saudi Arabia was selected as the host country for the World Expo 2030 after securing 72 per cent of the votes cast by Bureau International des Expositions member states.
Recent experience from elsewhere in the GCC has shown that hosting these events comes with a plethora of construction projects.
Qatar invested billions of dollars in infrastructure ahead of the Fifa World Cup 2022; similarly, Dubai spent heavily on infrastructure for Expo 2020.
Crucially, these events, global pandemics withstanding, are immovable deadlines that must be met, which means construction projects have to be delivered on time.
Significant undertakings
While the investment required for the 2034 World Cup remains to be determined, the Saudi bid must include a minimum of 14 all-seater stadiums, of which at least four should be existing structures. The capacity needed is at least 80,000 seats for the opening and final matches, and at least 60,000 seats for the semi-finals. For all other matches, a minimum of 40,000 seats are necessary.
Meanwhile, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, which led the Expo 2030 bid, has said the Expo site masterplan, which is located north of Riyadh close to King Khalid International airport, will cost $7.8bn to develop.
While both programmes of work are significant undertakings, they are not expected to be as transformative for the Saudi economy as they were for Qatar and Dubai, which were both smaller and dwindling construction markets when they secured the rights to host their events.
The same cannot be said for Saudi Arabia, where the construction market is already overheated as construction activity ramps up on a series of self-styled gigaprojects, including Neom, Diriyah Gate and Qiddiya, that aim to transform the economy as part of Vision 2030.
In a report on the Saudi economy released on 2 November, London-based Capital Economics said: “We don’t expect this to be the fillip to the Saudi economy as it was for Qatar, which hosted the World Cup in 2022.
“First, Saudi Arabia already has much of the infrastructure in place, including stadiums, meaning there is unlikely to be a World Cup-related construction boom like Qatar saw.
“Second, even with 104 games scheduled compared to 64 in Qatar, tournament-related tourism spending we estimate could be equal to just 2 per cent of non-hydrocarbon GDP (compared to 6 per cent in Qatar).”
Capital Economics made similar comments on the impact of the 2030 Expo.
In a report issued on 30 November, it said: “[While] hosting the event may support the kingdom’s longer-term goals of boosting tourism, it is highly unlikely that the Expo itself will provide a boost to the economy of the same magnitude as it did in Dubai.
“The Saudi economy is 10 times larger than that of Dubai, so even a similar sized nominal impact will be a much smaller boost as a share of GDP.”
In terms of construction and transport awards, 2023 has been the best year in recent times and could potentially be the best year on record.
By 1 December, there had been $36.3bn of construction and transport awards in Saudi Arabia, which already exceeds the 2022 total of $35.7bn. The record was achieved in 2013 when there were $41.7bn of contract awards, with a significant portion coming from the $23bn of contracts signed that year for the six lines of the Riyadh metro system.
UAE in 2023
It was also a good 2023 for the UAE, which recorded its best contract awards total in over a decade. There were $34.3bn of contract awards by 1 December 2023, higher than the 2014 high of $34.1bn, but still significantly short of 2008, when there were $40.2bn of construction and transport contract awards.
The UAE’s strongly performing property market has driven the country’s construction sector.
Next year, spending on projects by the government and its related entities will play a larger role as tendering starts for projects such as the $4.9bn extension to Dubai Metro’s Blue Line.
Runners up
For the other four GCC markets, the performance in 2023 and outlook for 2024 is more subdued. The hope is that as activity continues in the region’s two largest markets, the others will follow with ambitious projects. There are tentative signs that this is starting to happen as major projects restart or move into tendering.
The region’s other major construction market is Egypt. This year, its performance has stuttered as the total value of contract awards fell to $9.1bn from $29bn. As the economy continues to struggle with ongoing currency issues, the outlook for 2024 is subdued.
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Leadership role
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Emirates NBD, up 23% year-on-year to $47.1bn, reported FY2025 record profit before tax of AED29.8bn ($8.1bn) and likewise crossed AED1tn in total assets.
Kuwait Finance House also rose by 19%, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 19% to $28.7bn and Saudi National Bank 11%. Qatar National Bank stalled and slid 1%, while several smaller banks saw gains. Egypt’s Commercial International Bank rose 74% to $8.4bn off a depressed base, Jordan’s Arab Bank meanwhile rose 55%, Oman’s Bank Muscat by 52% and RakBank by 32%.
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Adnoc Logistics rose 32% to $11.6bn, while Air Arabia, the Sharjah-based low-cost carrier, joined the list at $6.1bn as it absorbed redirected long-haul flows. Nakilat, the Qatari liquefied natural gas shipping operator, was the sector’s sole softener, down 12% on slower throughput.
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Maaden rose 23% to $65.3bn after FY2025 net profit jumped 156%, backed by record phosphate production; high aluminium output; and rising silver, copper and aluminium prices linked to artificial intelligence, data centre, solar and electric vehicle demand.
Morocco’s Managem also entered the list at $19.7bn, having almost tripled in value in the past two years on cobalt, silver and copper prices and African expansion.
Sabic Agri-Nutrients rose 44% on a 30% 2025 net profit increase, while Fertiglobe rose by 40% – both potentially anticipating a 60% forecasted rise in urea prices.
Property and other trends
The direction of the property and real estate sector has been uniformly downward. The Iran conflict has driven both a slump in UAE property sales and prices and a similar tourism-adjacent correction in Saudi Arabia. Both the Mecca-focused Umm Al-Qura and Jabal Omar development firms have seen their valuations slashed by more than a third, while Makkah Construction & Development slid by 15%.
The UAE’s Emaar Properties and Dar Al-Arkan and Qatar’s Ezdan Holding have also all seen slides of more than 15%. Kuwait’s Mabanee, which rose by 22%, is the one exception in the sector.
In Saudi Arabia’s mid-tier, Acwa Power shed 29% in value even as its revenue rose 18% and its net income 5.4%. Elm Company likewise shed 33%, Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib 19% and the Saudi Tadawul Group 21%.
Mouwasat Medical Services, MBC Group, Nahdi Medical and Saudi Logistics Services fell out of the list entirely on the same trajectory. Each had reported FY2025 earnings rises before the decline. What corrected was the valuation, not the operations.
Acwa Power’s trailing four-quarter average price-to-earnings ratio was 166x, and even after this year’s decline sits at 88x against the Saudi market average of 17.8x. Elm sits at 26x, Al-Habib at 33x, Saudi Tadawul Group at 42x – all rich by any comparable benchmark.
Many of these entries have fallen away from their peak valuations as the cooling of the gigaproject programme since early 2025 has undermined sentiment.
One example that sits on the same axis from the UAE side is Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), which fell by 28% from $95.3bn to $69.0bn despite a 6% net income rise, even as capital expenditure also expanded by 50%.
There are now nine entries from Morocco’s Casablanca bourse against six a year ago, with an aggregate value of $74.7bn, up from $50.8bn. Industrial contractor Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc,entered via a December 2025 initial public offering (IPO). Several Moroccan stocks have also slipped, however, including Taqa Morocco, down 42%; Maroc Telecom, down 18%; Banque Populaire, down 13%; and Bank of Africa, down 10%.
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Regional repricing
Four trends underpin the list’s 7.2% recovery. The conflict has repriced specific cohorts sharply higher – logistics up 44%, mining and fertilisers up 43%, the Yanbu refiners returning, and Aramco recovering to $181bn – with gains contingent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
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Saudi mid-tier stocks have corrected largely on valuation rather than operations, despite many reporting earnings growth through 2025, as confidence in gigaproject-driven growth has weakened. Property has also softened in the region as conflict has reduced routine and religious tourism.
The 12-month outlook depends on whether Hormuz reopens, whether Saudi mid-tier valuations stabilise, and whether banking expansion holds under broader repricing.
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Developers win deals for $3.5bn of Mecca projects
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The Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites has awarded six real estate development deals. The projects, which cover a total land area exceeding 2.7 million square metres (sq m), will require a total investment of SR13.3bn ($3.5bn).
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A consortium consisting of Makkah Construction & Development Company, Umm Al-Qura for Development & Construction Company and Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company will develop the Hindawiya West and Hindawiya South districts, which have a combined area of nearly 1.15 million sq m, adjacent to the Masar Destination project. The consortium informed the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) that it received letters of award for the project on 31 May.
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Ladun Investment Company, in partnership with Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting Company, has signed a deal for the Al-Khalidiyah district. With a targeted sales value exceeding SR6bn, the consortium will establish a closed-ended private real estate investment fund to execute extensive infrastructure works, subdivide the land plots, and handle subsequent marketing and sales. The detailed scope of works involves complete engineering designs, public park planning and utility coordination with entities such as National Water Company and Saudi Electricity Company, before a contract is signed by 9 June.
Saudi property dreams: Read the January 2026 MEED Business Review
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