Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
12 October 2023
This package on the UAE’s upstream sector also includes:
> Adnoc seeks commercial bids for Upper Zakum
> Adnoc Onshore awards Sahil field upgrade contract
> Dubai-owned Dragon Oil to boost production in Egypt and Iraq
> Oil and gas players at Adipec strive for net-zero goals
> Adnoc awards $17bn EPC contracts for Hail and Ghasha
> Dana Gas makes changes to leadership

The UAE has made a giant leap towards becoming self-sufficient in natural gas production with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc's) final investment decision on the Hail and Ghasha offshore sour gas project.
Adnoc and its partners in the Ghasha concession awarded contracts worth $16.94bn in early October for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the Hail and Ghasha project.
The investment represents the largest-ever capital expenditure (capex) on an oil and gas project in the UAE. As such, it will have a galvanising, trickle-down effect on the UAE oil and gas supply chain.
Hail and Ghasha programme
The Hail and Ghasha fields are part of Abu Dhabi’s Ghasha concession, which is expected to produce more than 1.5 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas before the end of this decade.
Adnoc holds the majority 55 per cent stake in the Ghasha concession. The other stakeholders are Italian energy major Eni with 25 per cent, Germany’s Wintershall Dea with 10 per cent, and Austria’s OMV and Russia’s Lukoil, each with 5 per cent.
A consortium of Abu Dhabi’s National Petroleum Construction Company (NPCC) and Italian contractor Saipem was awarded the project's offshore engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) package. Its value is $8.2bn, with Saipem declaring its share to be worth $4.1bn.
The scope of work broadly involves the EPC of offshore facilities, including facilities on artificial islands and subsea pipelines.
Italy-headquartered Tecnimont was awarded the onshore EPC contract. The $8.74bn contract relates to the EPC of onshore facilities, including carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur recovery and handling.
The Hail and Ghasha project was initiated by Adnoc in 2018, with at least three EPC tendering rounds since. Its size and scope made it a vastly strategic proposition, hence shelving the gas production programme was not an option.
Through achieving the FID and awarding close to $17bn-worth of EPC contracts, Adnoc and its Ghasha concession partners have demonstrated the project's importance in ensuring the UAE is self-sufficient in gas by 2030.
NEWS FROM ADIPEC:
> Adnoc doubles 2030 carbon capture target
> Adnoc Gas awards $615m carbon capture contract
> Adnoc and Oxy to study direct air capture project
> Firms bid for Abu Dhabi airport tank farms project
> Sharjah and Ras al-Khaimah sign gas storage deal
Oil production push
Adnoc is also accelerating projects deemed vital to reaching its goal of 5 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil production potential by 2027, a target that has been brought forward from 2030.
Raising output from Abu Dhabi’s offshore oil fields is necessary for Adnoc to increase its overall crude production capacity. With this in mind, the Abu Dhabi energy giant has committed capex to key projects to raise output from the Upper Zakum and Lower Zakum offshore hydrocarbon concessions.
Through the UZ1000 project, Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Offshore aims to grow oil production from Upper Zakum to 1.2 million b/d.
The main work scope involves the EPC of multiple surface facilities and plants at the Upper Zakum offshore development’s four main artificial islands of Al-Ghallan, Umm al-Anbar, Ettouk and Asseifiya – also known as Central Island, West Island, North Island and South Island, respectively.
Contractors submitted technical bids for EPC works on the Upper Zakum oil production increment project by 5 June. Adnoc Offshore has set a deadline of 23 October to submit commercial bids for the project.
Separately, Adnoc Offshore has undertaken a couple of projects to increase oil and gas production from the Lower Zakum field in Abu Dhabi’s waters.
Adnoc Offshore and its partners in the Lower Zakum concession intend to sustain oil production from the asset at its current level of 450,000 b/d until 2025, and then increase output to 470,000 b/d. This target will be achieved through the Lower Zakum early production scheme 2 (EPS 2) and proved developed producing (PDP) project.
Contractors submitted technical bids for the EPC works on the Lower Zakum EPS 2/PDP project by 11 September. While the EPS 2/PDP project is anticipated to increase the Lower Zakum concession’s oil production potential to 470,000 b/d by 2027, Adnoc Offshore’s larger, longer-term objective is to raise the asset’s output capacity to 520,000 b/d by 2027 and maintain that level until 2034.
This strategic goal will be accomplished through the Lower Zakum Long-Term Development Plan (LTDP-1) project. Front-end engineering and design (feed) work is progressing on the Lower Zakum LTDP-1 project and is being performed by France’s Technip Energies.
Onshore oil output
Adnoc Onshore, meanwhile, has started a slew of projects to spike crude output from fields such as Asab, Bab, Northeast Bab, Bu Hasa, Mender, Qusahwira, Sahil and Shah.
An EPC contract, estimated to be worth more than $300m, for the third development phase of the Sahil oil field was recently awarded by Adnoc Onshore to local contractor Target Engineering Construction Company.
Another project being pursued by Adnoc Onshore relates to the conversion of wells and installation of associated tie-ins at the southeast cluster of oil fields in Abu Dhabi. The EPC scope of work has been divided into two packages, with technical bids submitted by contractors in August.
Increasing production from Abu Dhabi’s onshore fields, some of which have been in operation since the 1960s, is equally crucial for Adnoc to hit its 5 million b/d by 2027 target. The capacity enhancement projects that Adnoc Onshore has been advancing indicate the importance its parent entity attaches to maintaining and raising output from its onshore assets.
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The UAE announced its withdrawal from Opec on 28 April, ending a membership that predates the country itself: Abu Dhabi joined the producer group as an emirate in 1967, four years before federation.
The exit is being presented, including by Abu Dhabi itself, as a clean strategic choice driven by energy ambition and national interest.
The official framing is plausible. But there is a range of UAE interests at work, and much to question about the relative weight of these and the timing of the move.
Structural rift
The production case is the most structurally legible. Adnoc has invested $150bn over the past six years to raise capacity by nearly 40% to 4.85 million barrels a day (b/d), targeting 5 million b/d by 2027 – yet under Opec+, the UAE was constrained to a quota of 3.4 million b/d, leaving it pumping close to 30% below what it was capable of producing.
The underlying economics motivate the UAE to pursue volume over price.
The UAE’s fiscal breakeven oil price also sits at just under $50 a barrel according to IMF estimates, against Saudi Arabia’s inflection point closer to $90 – a structural gap unconducive to a unified policy.
This generates mismatched motives that have been visible since the 2021 Opec+ standoff in which Abu Dhabi publicly broke with Riyadh over its baseline quota and began to engage in persistent overproduction.
Sitting uncomfortably alongside this is the expanding Saudi-UAE rift, with the two countries now diverging on Yemen, Sudan, normalisation with Israel and posture toward Iran – all while actively competing for capital, talent and regional commercial primacy.
On the day of the withdrawal, Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei told Reuters that the Opec decision was taken after a review of production policy alone, and that the UAE did not raise the issue with other countries before announcing it.
The same day, the GCC summit in Jeddah was attended by every member’s head of state except the UAE’s – with Abu Dhabi sending its foreign minister instead.
The absence of prior regional consultation and the UAE’s subsequent non-attendance at a key GCC summit is an indictment of the nadir to which the group’s internal relations have sunk over the regional response to the recent conflict.
Speaking at the Gulf Influencers Forum in Dubai on 27 April, presidential adviser Anwar Gargash described the GCC’s response to Iranian retaliation as “the weakest historically”.
UAE-US alignment
The UAE’s loss of confidence in the GCC contrasts with its aspirations for relations with the US, which Abu Dhabi has only sought to bolster since the crisis, with Minister for International Cooperation Reem Al-Hashimy stating that the UAE would “double down” on its alliance with Washington.
Despite the central US role in instigating the Iran conflict, the UAE-US alignment has become such a strong undercurrent of Emirati foreign policy – building on decades of progressive policy work – that doing otherwise is perhaps unthinkable.
And US President Donald Trump has long attacked Opec as a price-inflating cartel and linked US military support for Gulf states directly to their oil pricing behaviour. An exit from Opec by the UAE therefore yields the added bonus of aligning with a US administration that has made lower oil prices a clear policy objective.
Also central to this is the artificial intelligence (AI) investment pact sealed with President Trump during his visit in May last year – committing to a 10-year, $1.4tn investment framework with the US, spanning AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy and manufacturing, with access to advanced chips as a central prize.
The UAE’s latest sovereign vehicle, MGX, spun out of Mubadala and ADQ, is supporting the US’ $500bn Stargate venture (budgeted at $100bn in the first phase) as an anchoring partner alongside OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, as well as through its participation in the $40bn BlackRock-led acquisition of Aligned Data Centres.
In this context, removing the UAE’s quota constraints will only lend further liquidity to Abu Dhabi’s strategic repositioning around AI chip and data-centre infrastructure.
Judicious timing
While the UAE’s Opec exit was not caused by the current logistical constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, they influenced the timing.
Since the UAE’s west-east oil pipeline capacity is limited to around 1.8 million b/d, it cannot physically flood the market with oil, so the near-term price implications are structurally bound.
This has blunted the impact and the potential diplomatic fallout that could have arisen from an exit at a price-sensitive time for the global energy market. The timing of the UAE’s move is therefore carefully calibrated for minimal present impact but maximum long-term gain when current conditions end.
The longer-term structural consequences for Opec are a different matter. The UAE was one of only two members, alongside Saudi Arabia, with meaningful spare capacity, and its departure leaves the group with fewer tools to manage the market.
In the wake of the UAE’s departure, both Kazakhstan and Nigeria have been flagged as candidates to follow. Opec thus faces a future of further fragmentation and ever-diminishing leverage over global energy prices.
Even as the move increases broader energy market uncertainty, however, it may reduce uncertainty for the UAE.
Opec negotiations are unpredictable and characteristically subject to the geopolitical mood. Outside of the group, Abu Dhabi’s production trajectory becomes a known quantity – gradual, measured and tied to its infrastructure rather than the outcome of the next Opec meeting.
So while the motives behind the UAE’s exit are multiple, they are mutually reinforcing. Production ambition, diverging fiscal calculi, strained bilateral relations, US alignment and a repositioning around AI all converge not as competing explanations, but as reasons that have collectively made membership dispensable.
They are also all layers of a singular decision that has been building for years – executed at a moment of reduced collateral cost into a market that is too disrupted to react.
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