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Gulf markets slide as US tariff shockwaves hit

24 April 2025

 

This package also includes:

> GCC shelters from the trade wars
> Lower oil prices raise Gulf’s fiscal pressure
> Gulf utility projects unbothered by Trump tariffs so far

Gulf markets fell sharply after the US announced a new tariff regime on 2 April, triggering declines as trading resumed after Eid. The 10% baseline import duty and levies on aluminium and industrial metals led to selloffs across regional indices.

Almost all major Gulf indices were dragged down by the tariff shock and began the week on Sunday 6 April with losses: Kuwait’s market dropped 5.7% and Qatar’s fell 4.2%, while the Muscat Securities Market Index declined 2.1% and Bahrain’s All Share Index fell approximately 2.5%. 

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index (Tasi) fell 6.1% at the start of trading on 6 April, marking its steepest single-day decline since March 2020 and wiping out over SR500bn ($133.3bn) in value. The index partially recovered, rebounding 0.7% on 7 April and rising 3.7% on 10 April after the US announced a 90-day tariff suspension, its largest daily gain in nearly five years.

Almost all major Gulf indices were dragged down by the tariff shock

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market followed similar trajectories as trading resumed on Monday 7 April. Dubai’s DFM index dropped 3.1%, led by a 5.7% fall in Dubai Islamic Bank. Abu Dhabi’s main index slipped 2.6%, with Adnoc Gas down nearly 5%. 

Both indices began recovering on 10 April. By 14 April, Dubai’s index had risen 1.8%, led by a 4.7% gain in Emirates NBD and a 3.2% rise in Dubai Islamic Bank, while Abu Dhabi’s index climbed 0.9%.

Equities dropped sharply across the region on 6 and 7 April, with blue-chip and sector-leading stocks in banking, real estate and energy posting heavy losses. The UAE’s Emaar Properties fell nearly 9% during intraday trading before closing 2.5% lower. 

The aluminium sector came under scrutiny following the reinstatement of the 25% US import duty. However, the impact was limited, as Gulf aluminium exports, particularly from Bahrain and the UAE, represent a modest share of total output. 

Oil price drop

The energy sector was not immune to the volatility. Brent crude dropped nearly 15% to around $64 a barrel – one of its steepest weekly declines in over a year. This slide is significant, given that fiscal breakeven oil prices are estimated at $90.9 for Saudi Arabia and $124.9 for Bahrain. Saudi Aramco lost over SR340bn in market value on 6 April before recovering 1% the next day.

Gulf petrochemicals producers also came under pressure. Saudi-based petrochemicals manufacturer Sabic is forecast to report a 47% year-on-year decline in Q1 earnings, according to a Riyad Capital report. The report cited softer product pricing and weaker demand from key markets including China and the US as the main cause.

Oil, energy and most petrochemicals products are exempt from US tariffs. While Gulf trade exposure to the US remains modest, the wider effects were felt through sentiment, capital flows and commodity pricing, and the deeper threat lies in reduced global demand, prolonged oil price weakness and weakened investor appetite. 

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Sarah Rizvi

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