Gulf aviation ambitions face uncertain future
26 June 2026

The Iranian drone strike on Kuwait International airport on 3 June was a reminder of the severity of the threat that Gulf aviation has faced. The attack caused significant structural damage to Terminal 1 and wounded several individuals. It was the third drone strike on the hub in recent months.
Kuwait has not been alone. After the conflict erupted on 28 February, Iranian strikes targeted some of the region’s most important aviation infrastructure. Dubai International airport, Zayed International airport in Abu Dhabi and Hamad International airport in Doha have all been hit. The attacks caused unprecedented disruption: between 28 February and 5 March alone, more than 15,000 flights were cancelled across seven major regional airports, affecting over 1.5 million passengers.
Although the Gulf’s national carriers have resumed services, many international airlines have yet to return.
Aviation is crucial for the region. The sector is one of the most important drivers of economic growth across the GCC. In Dubai, it contributed an estimated AED137bn ($37bn), or 27% of GDP, in 2024 and supported 631,000 jobs. Those figures are expected to rise to AED196bn and 816,000 jobs by 2030. In Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030 targets 330 million annual passengers, connectivity to more than 250 destinations and air freight capacity of 4.5 million tonnes a year. The sector’s economic contribution is targeted to reach $74.6bn by 2030, up from $21.3bn.
Sector deteriorating
The financial community has been quick to update its assessment of the sector’s prospects. Fitch Ratings revised its global airport sector outlook from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ in early June. The agency said the conflict has increased uncertainty over regional airspace availability, airline operations and travel demand, with implications for route stability and traffic quality.
Fitch’s assessment is a warning sign for the Gulf. The region’s major airports have built their business models on international connectivity, long-haul flying and transfer traffic – precisely the categories Fitch identifies as most exposed to rerouting risk and weaker visibility on demand. Gulf hub operators also face the prospect of further airspace restrictions affecting routes linking Asia, Europe and Africa.
The knock-on effects extend beyond airline revenues. Transfer passengers are also the highest-spending travellers in duty-free, retail and food and beverage outlets. Fitch noted that some Asia-Pacific airports have already begun benefiting from the redistribution of transit and long-haul traffic away from disrupted Gulf hubs.
The global body representing airlines, the International Air Transport Association (Iata), was equally downbeat when it released its latest financial outlook on 8 June. The organisation now expects the global airline industry to achieve a combined net profit of $23bn in 2026 – roughly half the $41bn previously projected and about half the $45bn estimated for 2025. The net profit margin is forecast at 2%, compared with the earlier projection of 3.9% and last year’s 4.2%. Net profit per passenger is expected to be $4.50, down from $9.10 in 2025.
“War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse,” said Willie Walsh, Iata’s director general. “At the regional level, all are in the black but with sharply reduced financial performance, with the exception of the Middle East. The Gulf carriers face operational uncertainty following a near complete shutdown of airspace at the outbreak of the war. These carriers are doing an amazing job maintaining connectivity, but major financial impacts are unavoidable.”
Fuel costs are a key part of the problem. Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel for the year – an increase of almost 70% on the $90-a-barrel average recorded in 2025. The crack spread, or the premium for jet fuel over Brent crude oil, is expected to average $57 a barrel, an historic high. Total fuel costs for the global airline industry are forecast to rise by nearly 40% from $252bn in 2025 to $350bn in 2026. This is based on an expected average Brent crude oil price of $95 a barrel for the year, up 37% from $69 in 2025. Overall, industry operating expenses are expected to grow by 13% to $1.117tn, outpacing total revenue growth of 9.4% to $1.165tn.
Fitch also raised concerns about the availability of jet fuel in Europe, noting potential disruption to Middle Eastern supply chains. While the agency expects European fuel reserves to cover the summer months even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it cautioned that winter operations could prove more challenging if the disruption persists. Higher airfares and fuel surcharges could further weigh on near-term demand – a headwind for Gulf airports that have benefited in recent years from the restoration of long-haul leisure travel following the Covid-19 pandemic.
The insurance market adds another layer of complexity. Aviation policies typically grant insurers the right to cancel cover during active conflict, and the terms on which cover is being extended in a region that has seen airports repeatedly targeted are likely to be materially more expensive than before.
Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel for the year – an increase of almost 70% on the $90-a-barrel average recorded in 2025
Carrier optimism
The Gulf’s airlines are more optimistic about the future. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways said in early June that it is operating at 90% of its pre-war available seat kilometres – the key industry capacity metric – and that by 15 June the airline will surpass 100%. Planes are 84% full, and crucially, fares are back at pre-war levels. Officials at the airline say that demand for transit through Abu Dhabi from Paris to Asia is running so strongly that the airline is laying on two of its A380 aircraft a day on that corridor from July.
While the expectation in the industry outside the Gulf had been that carriers such as Etihad and Emirates would need to discount heavily to entice passengers back after the ceasefire, Etihad has said that it does not expect prices to come down.
The airline will not be entirely unscathed. Etihad had been on course to deliver a 10% operating margin in 2026, up from 8% in 2025, but that target will now be missed. The airline was badly hit in March, April and May and will not be fully back on track until August.
Dubai’s Emirates Group released its 2025-26 annual results in May, which confirmed the airline’s status as the world’s most profitable carrier for the reporting year. The group posted a record profit before tax of AED24.4bn ($6.6bn), up 7% year-on-year, on revenues of AED150.5bn, also a record.
Unprecedented situation
The context is important: the results cover the financial year to 31 March 2026, meaning only the final month of March was affected by the conflict. For the first 11 months, the group was surpassing its targets every month. March then brought what Emirates’ chairman and chief executive Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum described as an “unprecedented situation”. Emirates was flying just 58% of its capacity by 31 March.
Despite the disruption, the results illustrate the depth of the financial cushion the group has built. Emirates also announced a 20-week salary bonus for employees – far exceeding the 13-week payout that had been linked to performance targets. For the year ahead, Sheikh Ahmed said Emirates would continue taking aircraft deliveries and pressing ahead with its retrofit programme, without resorting to “knee-jerk cost control measures”. The group has hedged its fuel exposure through to 2028-29. “Our fundamentals are strong,” he said.
On 8 June, Riyadh Air – the airline backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund – announced five new destinations: Cairo, Dubai, Jeddah, Madrid and Manchester, coinciding with the arrival of its first three Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft. The airline also moved up its inaugural London flight from 1 July to 10 June.
The airline will play a key role in delivering Saudi Arabia’s ambition to develop Riyadh into a global aviation hub and to position the kingdom as a major connecting point between East and West. The carrier has set a target of connecting Riyadh to more than 100 destinations worldwide by 2030. Pressing ahead with new routes and aircraft deliveries amid regional turbulence sends a signal that Saudi Arabia’s aviation ambitions are not for deferral.
Future direction
Looking ahead, there appears to be diverging fortunes for the sector. Globally, analysts say point-to-point leisure airports are typically better positioned than large hubs reliant on transfer traffic and international corridors, and this may also play out across the Middle East. Airports with a large share of local origin-and-destination demand may prove better insulated compared with the major connecting hubs whose business models depend on stable long-haul routings.
For the Gulf’s flagship hub carriers, including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, state ownership and strong backing mean that the question is less about survival and more about how long it will take to restore the full confidence of international airlines and their passengers.
Much remains uncertain. A ceasefire is in place and, as Sheikh Ahmed noted in the Emirates annual report, there are hopes for “a clear resolution to the hostilities soon, and a return to market stability”. But the drone attack on Kuwait shows that the threat from Iran to the region’s aviation infrastructure has not been neutralised. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of Gulf aviation.
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Accor expects Dubai hotel recovery by mid-202717 July 2026

Paris-headquartered hotel operator Accor expects Dubai’s hotel market to return to pre-conflict occupancy levels by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with room rates lagging the volume recovery by several months.
Duncan O’Rourke, chief executive for the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific at the hotel operator (pictured right), said the group had maintained profitability across its Dubai portfolio during the conflict period through cost control and revenue management, but acknowledged that rates and occupancy had fallen materially from January and February levels.“There is no question that this crisis affected Dubai,” O’Rourke said at a media briefing in Dubai on 26 June. “As for occupancy in Dubai, we managed – through profit protection and cost control – to keep the hotels in a positive position, so we weren’t losing money.”
He said the arrival of the summer low season provided a degree of relief. “If there is a time to slowly slide out of this crisis, it is the right time, which is now. What I see going forward is that volumes will come back. You will not have the rates immediately that you had in January and February. By the end of Q1 or Q2 next year, I think you will get close to where we were.”
Luxury first
O’Rourke said the luxury and upper-upscale segment was likely to lead the recovery, consistent with the pattern observed after previous crises.
“Generally, when you have a crisis, the first segment to click back quicker is the high-end luxury. People then think: it is not about whether I should go – it is, let’s go. We saw that in Covid. Fairmont is well positioned to do that, and the Sofitel and Maison brands are in the stage of recovery going forward.”
Jean-Jacques Morin, group deputy chief executive at Accor (pictured right), said the UAE’s underperformance had been contained within Accor’s broader international portfolio that continued to grow.“The Middle East is about 10% of the network,” he said. “That also explains why my tone on the capability of the results is so positive – not only do you have the hedging across geographies, but it is also, in the end, only one part of the business.”
Rate outlook
Morin dismissed concerns that the conflict had structurally weakened Dubai’s pricing power, drawing a parallel with the period following Covid-19.
“When we came out of Covid, everybody said those prices would never hold. The question at every analyst call was always the same: your pricing strategy is unsustainable. Guess what? Nothing changed. The prices now, three or four years later, are still the same.”
He argued that consumers consistently prioritise travel expenditure when reallocating budgets. “What you see when the economy goes sideways is that people reallocate disposable income differently. People are basically redirecting the way they do things and keeping the same amount they want to spend, but spending it differently.”
Morin also said Dubai has a track record of outpacing expectations after previous disruptions. “The first part of the world, post-Covid, that came back to positive RevPAR was the Middle East – it was Dubai. People forget that. The capacity of this part of the world to rebound, and the capacity of the industry to rebound in general, is always misunderstood.”
No pullback
Accor said it had not paused or cancelled any development commitments in the region as a result of the conflict. “We did not change anything from a strategic perspective,” Morin said. “The last thing you want is to pull back, because this is going to rebound.”
The group has also used the period to accelerate planned refurbishments and redeploy staff across the region rather than reduce headcount.
“We have 380 hotels here – we are the largest player in the Middle East. Where we accelerated refurbishments, we were able to take key employees and move them to larger hotels elsewhere in the region. What people learned during Covid was the cost of layoffs afterwards – bringing people back and retraining them. There was a massive learning curve. This time, discussions with partners about layoffs were less challenging; it was more about accommodating staffing needs during that period,” O’Rourke said.
READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFStress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions> INDUSTRY REPORT: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery> DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise> LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital changeTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17695301/main.gif -
CCC selected for $600m Damascus Financial Centre17 July 2026
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Syrian developer Souria Holding has selected Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) as the exclusive design-and-build contractor for the $600m Damascus Financial Centre (DFC) in Syria.
The two parties signed a memorandum of understanding on 6 July. The agreement covers design management, engineering, procurement, construction, testing and commissioning, handover and defects liability services. Souria Holding chairman Haytham Joud and CCC chairman Samer Khoury signed the agreement.
Souria Holding is developing the project in partnership with the Governorate of Damascus. The developer says the scheme is intended to support the city's long-term economic revitalisation and urban development.
The mixed-use development sits on Plot 47 in the Western Hejaz regulatory area of Damascus' Baramkeh district. The site covers about 32,000 square metres (sq m) and the development will have about 380,000 sq m of built-up area, making it one of the largest mixed-use schemes planned in Syria.
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GCC downstream operators urged to seek used European equipment17 July 2026

The operators of downstream oil and gas facilities in the GCC that are rebuilding after attacks during the regional war are being advised by the insurance industry to procure used equipment from Europe, where a large number of petrochemical facilities have closed down over recent years.
A wide range of refineries and petrochemical plants in the region are currently undertaking repairs and replacing damaged equipment after attacks by Iran.
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Holland says that companies in the GCC looking to minimise business disruption and rebuild as quickly as possible should reach out to companies in Europe to obtain equipment that would normally take a long time to procure from equipment manufacturers.
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Over recent months, there have been reports of downstream oil facilities being hit by Iranian attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain.
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Medina tenders Quba Mosque expansion17 July 2026

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Madinah Region Development Authority (MRDA) has tendered a contract to expand Quba Mosque in the Medina region of Saudi Arabia.
The tender was issued earlier this month, with a bid submission deadline of 31 August.
MRDA has appointed local consulting firm Jasara as the project management consultant.
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Project background
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Bahrain taps consultants for studying use of nuclear power17 July 2026

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Bahrain is exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption as well as for potential export of surplus, with state energy conglomerate Bapco Energies tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant.
According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.
Under the plan being studied, power to be produced by the nuclear facility will be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the kingdom, such as Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Bapco Refining, for clean production of aluminium and refined products, respectively, in line with Bahrain’s ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
BeVentures has, in turn, approached global consultancy firms such as Bechtel, Fluor, Kent, Technip Energies and Wood to assist with concept study and early-stage planning and assessment of the modular or small nuclear power project.
Bapco Energies and BeVentures are also considering tapping into private financing and/or equity partnerships, in part or in full, for the proposed project, sources told MEED.
Bapco Energies did not respond to MEED’s request for comment and additional information on the proposed modular nuclear project.
Mark Thomas, the group CEO of Bapco Energies, told MEED in an interview in April last year that BeVentures was considering investments in “ … new technologies that can both help existing business, as well as prepare … for the future, for the energy transition”.
“We’re looking at opportunities principally within our existing businesses around oil and gas production, refining and petrochemicals. But we’re also looking at elements that will prepare us for the future, more into renewables,” Thomas said, without explicitly mentioning nuclear power.
Case for nuclear power
Bahrain’s interest in exploring nuclear power has been driven primarily by the limitations of its hydrocarbon endowment. Given its small territorial size – about 786 square kilometres – Bahrain holds relatively modest hydrocarbon reserves compared with its Gulf peers.
The kingdom produces about 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, of which the Awali Field, also known as the Bahrain Field, contributes approximately 42,400 b/d.
Most of Bahrain’s crude production – about 145,000 b/d – comes from the offshore Abu Safah field, located in Gulf waters between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and shared between Bapco Energies’ subsidiary Bapco Upstream and Saudi Aramco.
Bapco Energies has long pursued additional resources to boost oil and gas output. However, the discovery of the Khalij Al-Bahrain basin in 2018 – its biggest find in decades – has yet to live up to its promise. Initially estimated to hold 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the find has not translated into production at the anticipated scale. Other, smaller exploration efforts with foreign players have also yet to yield the desired results.
The kingdom therefore remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas supplies, importing about 350,000 b/d from Aramco via the AB-4 pipeline.
At the same time, given its environmental sustainability targets, other forms of renewable energy – mainly solar – are unlikely on their own to enable Bahrain to reach net zero by 2060.
Bapco Energies published emissions-reduction targets in July 2023, in one of the most detailed disclosures by any state energy enterprise in the GCC. It has also engaged advisers including Boston Consulting Group to help devise a strategy to meet its environmental goals, and Standard Chartered to support financing requirements.
Using 2017 as a baseline year, Bapco Energies has committed to reducing absolute Scope 3 emissions in Bahrain by 30% by 2035, and to reaching net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2060.
In addition, Bapco Energies sets out net emissions-intensity reduction targets for Scope 1 and 2 – also using 2017 as a baseline – of 15% by 2025, 25% by 2030, 30% by 2035, 50% by 2040 and 75% by 2050, with the aim of achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2060.
Bahrain has been laying the groundwork to enable it to tap nuclear power for household and industrial needs in the future.
The kingdom is already operating under a Country Programme Framework (2024–29) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which establishes regulatory and safety benchmarks that must be in place before any commercial reactor construction begins.
In July last year, Manama also signed a civilian nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding with the US. Financed under the US Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) programme, the partnership provides Bahrain with technical support to develop secure, weaponisation-free civil nuclear infrastructure.
Small modular reactor (SMR) technology could be the most viable pathway forward for Bapco Energies in its quest to develop domestic nuclear power. Unlike conventional large-scale, capital-intensive gigawatt reactors, SMR units – typically under 300MW – require only a fraction of the land area needed for solar capacity of an equivalent output.
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