Global renewable capacity to double by 2030

13 October 2025

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Global renewable power capacity is expected to more than double by 2030, led by a surge in solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest medium-term forecast.

The Renewables 2025 report projects an additional 4,600GW of capacity, equivalent to the combined power generation of China, the EU and Japan.

Solar PV will account for around 80% of this increase, driven by declining costs and faster permitting timelines. Growth in wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal will also contribute, with geothermal installations on track to reach record levels in key markets such as the US, Japan and Indonesia.

The IEA notes that emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East and Africa are accelerating renewable energy deployment through stronger policy support and new auction programmes. India is set to become the second-largest growth market after China and is expected to meet its 2030 target comfortably.

“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

“Solar PV is on course to account for some 80% of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years,” he added.

While overall forecasts remain strong, the outlook has been revised slightly downward compared with last year due to policy shifts in China and the US.

The early phase-out of federal tax incentives and regulatory changes in the US have lowered growth expectations by almost 50%. China’s move from fixed tariffs to auctions has also reduced projected capacity growth.

This has been partly offset by higher growth projections in India, Europe and other emerging markets, supported by expanded auctions, faster permitting and rising rooftop solar installations. Corporate power purchase agreements and merchant projects are expected to drive 30% of total capacity additions by 2030, double last year’s forecast.

The report also highlights supply chain risks, with more than 90% of key solar PV and wind turbine components concentrated in China. Grid congestion and curtailment are increasing as variable renewables rise, prompting several countries to launch new capacity and storage auctions to strengthen grid integration.

Renewables’ share in transport and heating will grow modestly, from 4% to 6% in transport and from 14% to 18% in heat supply by 2030.

The shift will be driven by the electrification of transport in China and Europe and the expanded use of biofuels in emerging economies.

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Mark Dowdall
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