meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Global LNG demand set for steady growth

30 August 2024

 

The low density of natural gas makes it costlier to contain and transport compared to other fossil fuels such as coal or crude oil. 

For more than a century after gas was recognised as a viable energy source, producers were unable to utilise the fundamental infrastructure that facilitated international oil trade – marine transportation.

Prior to the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, the transportation of gas was limited to movement by pipeline. The development of LNG revolutionised the manner in which gas is transported and consumed worldwide. 

The first experimental shipment of LNG was made from Lake Charles in the US state of Louisiana to Canvey Island in the UK in 1958, aboard the vessel the Methane Pioneer. Since then, with improvements in technology and cost efficiencies, LNG has become an internationally traded commodity, the demand for which has risen through the years.

LNG production and transmission

LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to a liquid state by cooling it to a cryogenic temperature of -160 degrees Celsius. Natural gas is converted to a liquid in a liquefaction plant, or train.

Train sizes tend to be limited by the size of the available compressors. In the early years of development, train sizes had capacities of about 2 million tonnes a year (t/y), and a greenfield facility would often require three trains to be economically viable.

Improvements in compressor technology in this century have made it possible to design larger trains, to benefit from economies of scale. In the early 2000s, Qatar’s state-owned companies Qatargas and RasGas, in partnership with Western companies such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies (which was known as Total at the time), started operating trains with capacities of 7.8 million t/y.

When natural gas is in a liquid form, it takes up approximately one 600th of the space it would occupy as a vapour. Reducing its volume and its weight by half makes it easier and safer to transport across long distances on specially designed double-hull ships or vessels. 

In the final stage of transmission, LNG is offloaded from a marine jetty to cryogenic storage tanks at the receiving terminal. It remains at -160 degrees Celsius during this process.

Benefits and applications

A slew of benefits and applications in various industries has fuelled the growth of LNG in the global economy. 

LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than oil, therefore offering lower carbon emissions. 

The LNG liquefaction process also releases very little nitrogen oxide, a harmful greenhouse gas, and sulphur dioxide, which can cause significant damage to terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems.

With an energy density 600 times greater than natural gas, LNG can be used as an alternative fuel for sectors such as shipping. This helps to reduce the carbon footprint of industries that are slower to decarbonise.

On the socioeconomic front, LNG sales have facilitated the economic progress of producer nations, as witnessed in Australia, Qatar and Nigeria. Consumer countries also get access to a source of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.

Separately, investments in LNG – in the form of LNG infrastructure building, as well as the expansion of production facilities – spur economic growth and help to stimulate job creation.

LNG is primarily used as a major source for electricity generation in powering industries, households and social infrastructure.

The chemicals industry is also one of the largest consumers of LNG, where it is mainly used for steam production and for heating, cracking and reforming units.

In the transport sector, meanwhile, LNG is one of the foremost sources of fuel, particularly for marine tankers and heavy surface vehicles, due to its high energy density compared to conventional fuels, coupled with its low emissions.

In addition, in food manufacturing, LNG is used as fuel for intense processes such as the steaming and drying of food produce.

Buoyant demand outlook

According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024, the global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China, and as South and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth.

Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages.

Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach about 625-685 million t/y in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.

“China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas,” says Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, in the company’s LNG Outlook 2024. 

“With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkiye combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”

Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, these countries will need to make significant investments in their gas import infrastructure, Shell said in the report.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 also notes that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply.

Three stages of growth

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in its global gas strategic planning outlook, identifies three distinct phases of LNG market growth in the coming decade.

First, it says that continued market volatility will remain for the next couple of years as limited supply growth amplifies risk. 

The pace of LNG supply growth and demand across Europe and Asia provide both upside and downside risks. Uncertainty over Russian gas and LNG exports further complicates the matter, making 2025 a potentially tumultuous year for supply, and therefore for prices.

This phase could be followed by a major wave of new supply, ushering in lower prices from 2026, Wood Mackenzie says in the report. 

A muted demand response to lower prices across Asia would undoubtedly draw out the market imbalance. Conversely, supply risks cannot be ruled out. An anticipated escalation of Western sanctions on Russian LNG threatens to impact the overall supply growth scenario, increasing the potential for a stronger-for-longer market.

Beyond 2026, as LNG supply growth slows, prices will recover again before a new wave of LNG supply triggers another cycle of low prices in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie predicts. 

Much will depend on long-term Asian demand growth. Booming power demand and a shift away from coal makes gas and renewables the obvious choice. 

However, if LNG prices are too high, Asia’s most price-sensitive buyers could quickly return to coal. 

On the upside, delays or cancellations to the expansion of Central Asian and Russian pipeline gas into China will push Chinese LNG demand higher for longer. 

Region advances LNG projects with pace

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12432749/main.gif
Indrajit Sen

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai seeks consultants to develop drainage strategy

    18 March 2026

    Dubai Municipality has issued a request for qualifications (RFQ) for a study to develop a sustainable urban drainage systems (Suds) strategy across the emirate.

    The bid submission deadline is 9 April.

    The tender, issued through the Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department, covers the development of a strategy and conceptual implementation plan for Suds in Dubai.

    It follows a separate RFQ issued by the municipality in March for consultancy services to study the emirate’s sewage treatment strategy.

    The Suds project, designated TF-23-D1, aims to support the emirate’s flood protection and drainage infrastructure by promoting a more sustainable approach to stormwater management.

    The scope of work includes a review of international best practices in Suds and their applicability to Dubai. It also involves undertaking a Suds opportunity study and carrying out catchment-scale modelling and financial evaluation for a pilot study area.

    Consultants will be required to develop Suds design guidelines, specifications and standard drawings. The project also includes establishing a strategy, policy, legal and regulatory framework to support a Suds implementation roadmap.

    Dubai Municipality said the initiative represents “a significant step towards a more resilient, sustainable and forward-looking stormwater management approach for Dubai.”

    The study forms part of a broader review of Dubai’s water and wastewater infrastructure. Earlier this month, the municipality issued a separate consultancy tender (P115-D1) to assess the emirate’s sewage treatment and recycled water distribution strategy. 

    The study will focus on infrastructure requirements to support future population growth. 

    This includes identifying locations for potential future facilities such as treatment plants and pumping stations.

    The bid submission deadline is 23 March.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16027434/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Oman awards power purchase agreements

    18 March 2026

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (PWP) has issued letters of award (LoA) for new power purchase agreements (PPAs) to three independent power producers (IPPs), according to regulatory filings.

    The new PPAs will extend the operating life of existing gas-fired power plants beyond the expiry of their current contracts.

    The projects have a combined capacity of about 3,500MW.

    The agreements have been awarded to Phoenix Power Company, Al-Batinah Power Company and Al-Suwadi Power Company.

    Phoenix Power Company operates the 2,000MW Sur IPP.  It is owned by a consortium of international and regional investors, including Japan’s Marubeni Corporation and Chubu Electric Power, Qatar’s Nebras Power, Qatar Electricity & Water Company and Multitech of Oman’s Bahwan Engineering Company.

    Al-Batinah Power Company and Al-Suwadi Power Company operate the 750MW Sohar 2 IPP and the 750MW Barka 3 IPP, respectively.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Nama PWP signed the original PPA for the Barka 3 project in 2010 with a consortium led by Gaz de France (GDF) Suez under a special purpose vehicle (SPC) called Al-Suwadi Power Company.

    The shareholders comprised GDF Suez (46%), Bahwan Engineering Company (22%), Shikoku Electric Power Corporation (11%), Sojitz Corporation (11%)  and the Public Authority for Social Insurance (10%).

    In 2015, GDF Suez was rebranded as Engie following a strategic shift towards low-carbon energy and utilities.

    All three companies said the new PPAs will run for 15 years under agreed commercial terms. Acceptance of the LOAs has been requested by 18 March 2026.

    The new agreements for Sohar 2 and Barka 3 will take effect on 1 April 2028 and run until 31 March 2043. The agreement for the Sur IPP will commence on 1 April 2029 and run until 31 March 2044.

    The awards form part of Nama PWP’s 2028-29 procurement programme. The programme aims to secure firm generation capacity from existing assets whose current PPAs are due to expire during that period.

    In Oman, IPP projects are developed under a build-own-operate model. This allows plant operators to continue running assets beyond the initial PPA term, either through contract extensions or by selling power into a future electricity market.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16027001/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • DP World awards Jafza warehouse construction deal

    18 March 2026

    Dubai-based ports operator DP World has awarded a contract to build a multi-tenant warehouse development at Jebel Ali Freezone in Dubai, UAE.

    The contract was awarded to local firm Group Amana.

    The development spans 141,916 square metres (sq m) and comprises 187 units across seven blocks.

    These comprise warehouses, light industrial units, a retail shop, a mosque and other associated infrastructure.

    The new contract builds on their existing partnership to deliver the logistics park at Jeddah Islamic Port in Saudi Arabia.

    In February last year, MEED exclusively reported that Dubai’s DP World and the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) had awarded a SR347m ($92m) design-and-build contract to Group Amana for the project.

    The scope of the contract covers construction work on the buildings under package two of the project’s first phase.

    Earlier this week, MEED reported that DP World has kept its 2026 capital expenditure budget at nearly $3bn, focusing on two domestic assets and four overseas projects.

    The company said in a statement that the priority developments include Jebel Ali and Drydocks World in Dubai.

    Earlier this month, the group announced record financial results for 2025, with revenue up 22% to $24.4bn and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) up 18% to $6.4bn, delivering a 26.3% margin.

    DP World said this performance was driven by strong momentum across its ports and terminals and logistics business.

    The group’s gross throughput rose 5.8% to 93.4 million 20-foot equivalent units.

    Profit for the year increased 32.2% to $1.96bn, and operating cash flow grew 14% to $6.3bn.

    Return on capital employed increased to 9.9% in 2025, up from 8.9% in 2024, reflecting stronger earnings despite ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16026660/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egyptian firm starts building Sal’s Riyadh logistics centre

    18 March 2026

    Egyptian contractor Rowad Modern Engineering, a subsidiary of the Elsewedy Electric Group, has begun construction on the expansion of Saudi Logistics Services Company (Sal) facilities at King Khalid International airport in Riyadh.

    The scope of work includes the rehabilitation and upgrade of existing infrastructure, as well as the construction of new supporting facilities and services.

    Sal started the tendering process for its SR4.2bn ($1bn) logistics zone in the north of Riyadh in September last year, as MEED reported.

    UAE-based Global Engineering Consultants is the project consultant.

    The logistics hub aims to meet the demand for customised warehouses located near King Khalid International airport and the Riyadh Metro.

    The project is in line with Vision 2030 and the National Transport & Logistics Strategy, which aims to support the kingdom’s logistics sector and enhance Saudi Arabia’s position as a global logistics hub.

    Sal and Sela signed an agreement to develop the project in March last year.

    This was followed by another lease agreement for the project, which will span about 1.57 million square metres. 

    According to an official statement: “The lease will extend for 30 years, which is further extendable to an additional 15 years upon agreement of both parties.”

    GlobalData expects the kingdom’s construction industry to record an annual average growth rate of 5.2% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and tourism infrastructure projects, as well as the $850bn-plus gigaprojects programme.

    Growth will also be supported by government investments in rail, dams, industrial and road infrastructure projects. 

    The industrial sector is estimated to grow by 3.3% in 2025-28, supported by investments in the development of manufacturing, logistics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals plants.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16026154/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Jabal Omar plans next phase of its Mecca development

    18 March 2026

    Saudi Arabian developer Jabal Omar Development Company is carrying out planning for phase seven of its Jabal Omar master development in Mecca, according to a fourth-quarter 2025 financial presentation.

    The company said phase seven will be a mixed-use scheme comprising hotels, retail and residential components, but did not disclose a breakdown of the project elements.

    Jabal Omar plans to use a development partnership model for the phase to minimise capital expenditure.

    Separately, the developer said it is targeting the delivery of 1,346 hotel keys and more than 20,000 square metres of gross leasing area in phase four by 2027.

    Rotana Jabal Omar Makkah, comprising 655 keys, is due to be fully operational in the first quarter of 2026, after 450 keys began operating in the final week of December 2025.

    The 1,141-key Sofitel is scheduled to become operational in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the 20,000 square metres of gross leasable area is expected to be ready in 2027.

    Jabal Omar estimates its 2026 capital expenditure at SR1.1bn ($293m), with spending expected to fall once the phase four hotels are completed.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16026145/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal