meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Global LNG demand set for steady growth

30 August 2024

 

The low density of natural gas makes it costlier to contain and transport compared to other fossil fuels such as coal or crude oil. 

For more than a century after gas was recognised as a viable energy source, producers were unable to utilise the fundamental infrastructure that facilitated international oil trade – marine transportation.

Prior to the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, the transportation of gas was limited to movement by pipeline. The development of LNG revolutionised the manner in which gas is transported and consumed worldwide. 

The first experimental shipment of LNG was made from Lake Charles in the US state of Louisiana to Canvey Island in the UK in 1958, aboard the vessel the Methane Pioneer. Since then, with improvements in technology and cost efficiencies, LNG has become an internationally traded commodity, the demand for which has risen through the years.

LNG production and transmission

LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to a liquid state by cooling it to a cryogenic temperature of -160 degrees Celsius. Natural gas is converted to a liquid in a liquefaction plant, or train.

Train sizes tend to be limited by the size of the available compressors. In the early years of development, train sizes had capacities of about 2 million tonnes a year (t/y), and a greenfield facility would often require three trains to be economically viable.

Improvements in compressor technology in this century have made it possible to design larger trains, to benefit from economies of scale. In the early 2000s, Qatar’s state-owned companies Qatargas and RasGas, in partnership with Western companies such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies (which was known as Total at the time), started operating trains with capacities of 7.8 million t/y.

When natural gas is in a liquid form, it takes up approximately one 600th of the space it would occupy as a vapour. Reducing its volume and its weight by half makes it easier and safer to transport across long distances on specially designed double-hull ships or vessels. 

In the final stage of transmission, LNG is offloaded from a marine jetty to cryogenic storage tanks at the receiving terminal. It remains at -160 degrees Celsius during this process.

Benefits and applications

A slew of benefits and applications in various industries has fuelled the growth of LNG in the global economy. 

LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than oil, therefore offering lower carbon emissions. 

The LNG liquefaction process also releases very little nitrogen oxide, a harmful greenhouse gas, and sulphur dioxide, which can cause significant damage to terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems.

With an energy density 600 times greater than natural gas, LNG can be used as an alternative fuel for sectors such as shipping. This helps to reduce the carbon footprint of industries that are slower to decarbonise.

On the socioeconomic front, LNG sales have facilitated the economic progress of producer nations, as witnessed in Australia, Qatar and Nigeria. Consumer countries also get access to a source of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.

Separately, investments in LNG – in the form of LNG infrastructure building, as well as the expansion of production facilities – spur economic growth and help to stimulate job creation.

LNG is primarily used as a major source for electricity generation in powering industries, households and social infrastructure.

The chemicals industry is also one of the largest consumers of LNG, where it is mainly used for steam production and for heating, cracking and reforming units.

In the transport sector, meanwhile, LNG is one of the foremost sources of fuel, particularly for marine tankers and heavy surface vehicles, due to its high energy density compared to conventional fuels, coupled with its low emissions.

In addition, in food manufacturing, LNG is used as fuel for intense processes such as the steaming and drying of food produce.

Buoyant demand outlook

According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024, the global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China, and as South and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth.

Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages.

Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach about 625-685 million t/y in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.

“China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas,” says Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, in the company’s LNG Outlook 2024. 

“With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkiye combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”

Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, these countries will need to make significant investments in their gas import infrastructure, Shell said in the report.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 also notes that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply.

Three stages of growth

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in its global gas strategic planning outlook, identifies three distinct phases of LNG market growth in the coming decade.

First, it says that continued market volatility will remain for the next couple of years as limited supply growth amplifies risk. 

The pace of LNG supply growth and demand across Europe and Asia provide both upside and downside risks. Uncertainty over Russian gas and LNG exports further complicates the matter, making 2025 a potentially tumultuous year for supply, and therefore for prices.

This phase could be followed by a major wave of new supply, ushering in lower prices from 2026, Wood Mackenzie says in the report. 

A muted demand response to lower prices across Asia would undoubtedly draw out the market imbalance. Conversely, supply risks cannot be ruled out. An anticipated escalation of Western sanctions on Russian LNG threatens to impact the overall supply growth scenario, increasing the potential for a stronger-for-longer market.

Beyond 2026, as LNG supply growth slows, prices will recover again before a new wave of LNG supply triggers another cycle of low prices in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie predicts. 

Much will depend on long-term Asian demand growth. Booming power demand and a shift away from coal makes gas and renewables the obvious choice. 

However, if LNG prices are too high, Asia’s most price-sensitive buyers could quickly return to coal. 

On the upside, delays or cancellations to the expansion of Central Asian and Russian pipeline gas into China will push Chinese LNG demand higher for longer. 

Region advances LNG projects with pace

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12432749/main.gif
Indrajit Sen

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • WEBINAR: End-of-Year Mena Market Review

    13 November 2026

    Webinar: The big questions shaping the Gulf market. You decide what gets debated.
    Tuesday 24 November 2026  | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    What makes this session particularly interesting is that the audience gets to decide the agenda. Registrants can vote for the topics they’d like Ed and Colin to debate, with the most popular questions forming the final shortlist for the live session.

    Topics in the ballot:

    • Is the Gulf trying to build too much, too quickly?
    • Saudi Arabia or the UAE: where would you place your next big bet?
    • Are gigaprojects the best use of public money?
    • Who is really responsible when projects go wrong?
    • Should the lowest-price tender become a thing of the past?
    • Can private capital take over from the government in financing infrastructure and diversification?
    • Is the Gulf’s AI and data centre boom a smart bet or the next overbuilding risk?
    • Should the Gulf double down on hydrocarbons to fund diversification?
    • Is localisation strengthening the economy or making delivery harder?
    • Are Gulf countries building complementary economies or competing for the same customers?

    The session will also feature live audience polling and Q&A, giving attendees an opportunity to share their views.

    Hosted by: 

    Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today, he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Colin Foreman, editor of MEED 

    Colin Foreman is editor and a specialist construction journalist for news and analysis on MEED.com and the MEED Business Review magazine. He has been reporting on the region since 2003, specialising in the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy. He has reported exclusively on a wide range of projects across the region including Dubai Metro, the Burj Khalifa, Jeddah Airport, Doha Metro, Hamad International airport and Yas Island. Before joining MEED, Colin reported on the construction sector in Hong Kong.

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21380319/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • PDO awards contract for Al-Ghubar oil field project

    12 November 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has awarded the main contract for a project to build a facility to handle additional oil production from the Al-Ghubar field in the sultanate.

    The Al-Ghubar field is located in the Ghaba Salt Basin at Qarn Alam, within majority state-owned PDO’s Block 6 concession area.

    The Al-Ghubar gas-oil gravity drainage (GOGD) facility will be designed as a sour (hydrogen sulphide) facility and is expected to handle a maximum oil production rate of 1,800 standard cubic metres a day (cm/d), a total water flow rate of up to 10,421 standard cm/d and gas lift of up to 256,934 standard cm/d. Production from the planned Al-Ghubar GOGD facility will be exported to PDO’s main oil line.

    China-based Jereh Group has won the contract for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project, sources told MEED.

    A project kick-off meeting between PDO and Jereh has also recently taken place, the sources said.

    MEED previously reported that Jereh had emerged as the lowest bidder for the project.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to have been bidding for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project:

    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Egypt) / Petrojet (Egypt)
    • GS Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Jereh (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)

    PDO floated the tender for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project in March, setting an initial bid submission deadline of 4 May, MEED previously reported.

    PDO later extended the deadlines for the submission of technical and commercial bids to 26 July and 7 August, respectively. Contractors submitted technical proposals by the revised deadline, according to sources.

    After receiving the technical bids for the project in July, PDO granted contractors until 16 August to submit commercial bids. It eventually extended the deadline to 1 September, with contractors submitting commercial proposals by that date, as MEED reported.

    The scope of work on the Al-Ghubar GOGD project covers the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of the following:

    • On-plot scope, consisting of:
      • Production separator  
      • Test separator  
      • Concentric wash tank
      • Wet oil pump
      • Water bath heater
      • Surge tank
      • Gas injection/gas lift compressor (centrifugal)
      • Utilities (instrument air compressors, chemical injection skids, drain system, vent system) 
      • Suction scrubber
      • Air coolers
      • Discharge scrubbers
      • Condensate flash drum
      • Atmospheric pressure knock-out drum 
      • Flare system
      • Gas heater
      • Water disposal pump
      • Oil shipping pump
      • 132kV substation and plant substation (housing 6.6kV and 415-Volt switchboard)
      • Control room
         
    • Off-plot scope consisting of:
      • Off-plot pipeline network (bulk header, test header, gathering infrastructure/ gathering line header, instrument air header, water disposal header)
      • Two remote manifold stations 
      • Tie-in connection to main oil line
      • Tie-in to gas network pipeline

    PDO previously intended to tender the Al-Ghubar GOGD project under its framework structure with selected EPC contractors, but ultimately tendered it separately.

    PDO is the operator of Oman’s Block 6 hydrocarbons concession, the sultanate’s largest and most prolific concession. Situated onshore and covering an area of 75,119 square kilometres, Block 6 contains 202 oil fields and 43 gas fields. PDO produces approximately 680,000 barrels a day of oil and condensates from the fields.

    The Omani government holds a 60% stake in PDO through Energy Development Oman. The other shareholders are UK-based Shell (34%), France’s TotalEnergies (4%) and Thailand’s state-owned PTTEP (2%).

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21345337/main2647.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Laing O’Rourke joins the international exit list

    12 November 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Laing O’Rourke’s decision to seek a buyer for its Middle East business marks the end of an era for UAE construction.

    In the early 2000s, the contractor was among the leading names in the market. Its work at Dubai International airport, the Atlantis hotel on the Palm Jumeirah and the ski slope at Mall of the Emirates made it arguably the UAE’s most prominent contractor during the pre-global financial crisis construction boom.

    Its activities were not limited to Dubai. A partnering agreement with Aldar for Al-Raha Beach then made it the most active contractor in Abu Dhabi almost overnight.

    The global financial crisis changed its fortunes. The Aldar Laing O’Rourke joint venture ended. Unsettled by payment problems and wider stress in the industry, the company took a more cautious approach to clients and projects in the region. One executive at the time told MEED: “You might see lots of tower cranes, but none of them are doing work that we would want to do.”

    The contractor’s appetite partially returned in the late 2010s, when it won Al-Wasl Plaza at the Expo 2020 site in Dubai. It also became a leading player in the growing data centre market, delivering facilities for repeat clients, including Khazna and Equinix.

    Data centres have since been its focus. These are significant projects, but they lack the public profile of the airport, Atlantis and Al-Wasl Plaza. As its profile faded, the company sold its UAE joinery arm to Dubai-based Arco Turnkey Solutions in 2025.

    Laing O’Rourke now looks set to follow other international contractors that have, for various reasons, left the region, including Murray & Roberts, Balfour Beatty, Multiplex, Carillion and Bam. With a record £17.2bn order book anchored by UK and Australian infrastructure, the group’s priorities clearly lie elsewhere.

    Whoever buys the business will inherit strong data centre credentials. For much of the market, however, Laing O’Rourke will be remembered for the landmark projects that defined the UAE’s boom years.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21344577/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Poland’s Orlen terminates QatarEnergy LNG supply deal

    11 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Poland’s Orlen has announced it has terminated one of two long-term contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by QatarEnergy LNG, a subsidiary of state enterprise QatarEnergy. The termination follows an ongoing force majeure event “resulting in an inability to meet contractual delivery obligations”.

    The agreement covered the supply of 1 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG, equivalent to approximately 15.3 terawatt-hours, with pricing linked to crude oil quotations. The estimated value of the agreement for 2026 is approximately €570m ($634.9m), Orlen said in a statement on 10 November.

    The terminated agreement was originally signed by Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo and QatarEnergy on 29 June 2009. Deliveries under the agreement commenced in 2016 and were due to remain in force until 2034, the Polish energy company said.

    The agreement will remain in force for a further 60 days following the notice of termination, Orlen said in its statement.

    Orlen continues to honour its second agreement with QatarEnergy, which covers deliveries of up to 1 million t/y of LNG until 2034, under a pricing formula linked to gas price quotations.

    “The decision to terminate the agreement does not affect the security of gas supplies. Gas production from the company’s own fields, together with its long-term gas supply agreements, ensures full coverage of Orlen Group’s gas requirements,” the company concluded.

    It is not clear whether Orlen’s termination of one of its long-term LNG supply agreements with QatarEnergy is related to the Qatari energy giant declaring force majeure on two instances in March this year, when its energy infrastructure was hit in Iranian drone and missile attacks.

    Force majeure episodes

    On 4 March, QatarEnergy issued force majeure to customers that were affected by its decision to stop production and shipments of LNG and associated products after military attacks on the company’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in Qatar on 2 March.

    Later that month, Qatar said Iranian missiles had caused extensive damage at Ras Laffan Industrial City on 18 March, with Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and Minister of State for Energy Affairs, saying that the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.

    At least two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities were damaged in the Iranian strikes, Al-Kaabi told news agency Reuters at the time. 

    Repairing damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.

    As a result, QatarEnergy said it would have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years for LNG supplies bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China. Poland was not specifically mentioned at the time.

    “These are long-term contracts that we have to declare force majeure. We already declared, but that was a shorter term. Now it is whatever the period is,” Al-Kaabi said in March.

    QatarEnergy currently has a nameplate LNG production capacity of 77.5 million t/y, with all its processing trains and export infrastructure located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, which lies about 90 kilometres to the north of Doha and is home to the largest LNG production and export facility in the world. 

    QatarEnergy’s LNG production capacity is on course to rise to 142 million t/y when the three phases of its $40bn North Field LNG expansion programme are commissioned by the end of the decade. Engineering, procurement and construction works on its North Field East, North Field South and North Field West projects are progressing, with the first phase expected to be operational by the end of this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21333808/main2615.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Riyadh shifts bid deadline for King Salman Stadium works

    11 November 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Sports Ministry has set a deadline of 1 December for a contract covering early works at the King Salman International Stadium in Riyadh.

    The tender scope encompasses enabling works, site preparation and initial construction activities. The tender was issued on 11 October, carrying an initial submission deadline of 19 November. Contractors previously submitted prequalification statements for the main design-and-build contract in February.

    Designed by US-based architectural firm Populous, the stadium will cover approximately 660,000 square metres (sq m), seat 92,000 spectators and stand adjacent to King Abdulaziz Park. Facilities will feature a 150-seat royal suite, 120 hospitality suites, 300 VIP seats and 2,200 dignitary seats.

    The broader masterplan encompasses more than 360,000 sq m of ancillary facilities, featuring two training fields, fan zones, a closed sports hall, an Olympic-sized swimming pool, an athletics track, and outdoor courts for volleyball, basketball and padel.

    Scheduled for completion by 2029, the venue will serve as the home base for the Saudi national football team and host the opening match and final of the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

    Saudi stadium plans

    In August 2024, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia plans to build 11 new stadiums and refurbish four existing venues for the 2034 tournament. Eight venues will be located in Riyadh, four in Jeddah, and one each in Al-Khobar, Abha and Neom.

    An additional 10 cities will host team base camps: Al-Baha, Jazan, Taif, Medina, AlUla, Umluj, Tabuk, Hail, Al-Ahsa and Buraidah. Across the kingdom, organisers plan to deploy 134 training sites, comprising 61 existing facilities and 73 new builds.

    Saudi Arabia was officially selected to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup during an online convention of member associations at the Fifa Congress on 11 December 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21325461/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal