meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Global LNG demand set for steady growth

30 August 2024

 

The low density of natural gas makes it costlier to contain and transport compared to other fossil fuels such as coal or crude oil. 

For more than a century after gas was recognised as a viable energy source, producers were unable to utilise the fundamental infrastructure that facilitated international oil trade – marine transportation.

Prior to the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, the transportation of gas was limited to movement by pipeline. The development of LNG revolutionised the manner in which gas is transported and consumed worldwide. 

The first experimental shipment of LNG was made from Lake Charles in the US state of Louisiana to Canvey Island in the UK in 1958, aboard the vessel the Methane Pioneer. Since then, with improvements in technology and cost efficiencies, LNG has become an internationally traded commodity, the demand for which has risen through the years.

LNG production and transmission

LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to a liquid state by cooling it to a cryogenic temperature of -160 degrees Celsius. Natural gas is converted to a liquid in a liquefaction plant, or train.

Train sizes tend to be limited by the size of the available compressors. In the early years of development, train sizes had capacities of about 2 million tonnes a year (t/y), and a greenfield facility would often require three trains to be economically viable.

Improvements in compressor technology in this century have made it possible to design larger trains, to benefit from economies of scale. In the early 2000s, Qatar’s state-owned companies Qatargas and RasGas, in partnership with Western companies such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies (which was known as Total at the time), started operating trains with capacities of 7.8 million t/y.

When natural gas is in a liquid form, it takes up approximately one 600th of the space it would occupy as a vapour. Reducing its volume and its weight by half makes it easier and safer to transport across long distances on specially designed double-hull ships or vessels. 

In the final stage of transmission, LNG is offloaded from a marine jetty to cryogenic storage tanks at the receiving terminal. It remains at -160 degrees Celsius during this process.

Benefits and applications

A slew of benefits and applications in various industries has fuelled the growth of LNG in the global economy. 

LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than oil, therefore offering lower carbon emissions. 

The LNG liquefaction process also releases very little nitrogen oxide, a harmful greenhouse gas, and sulphur dioxide, which can cause significant damage to terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems.

With an energy density 600 times greater than natural gas, LNG can be used as an alternative fuel for sectors such as shipping. This helps to reduce the carbon footprint of industries that are slower to decarbonise.

On the socioeconomic front, LNG sales have facilitated the economic progress of producer nations, as witnessed in Australia, Qatar and Nigeria. Consumer countries also get access to a source of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.

Separately, investments in LNG – in the form of LNG infrastructure building, as well as the expansion of production facilities – spur economic growth and help to stimulate job creation.

LNG is primarily used as a major source for electricity generation in powering industries, households and social infrastructure.

The chemicals industry is also one of the largest consumers of LNG, where it is mainly used for steam production and for heating, cracking and reforming units.

In the transport sector, meanwhile, LNG is one of the foremost sources of fuel, particularly for marine tankers and heavy surface vehicles, due to its high energy density compared to conventional fuels, coupled with its low emissions.

In addition, in food manufacturing, LNG is used as fuel for intense processes such as the steaming and drying of food produce.

Buoyant demand outlook

According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024, the global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China, and as South and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth.

Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages.

Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach about 625-685 million t/y in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.

“China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas,” says Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, in the company’s LNG Outlook 2024. 

“With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkiye combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”

Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, these countries will need to make significant investments in their gas import infrastructure, Shell said in the report.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 also notes that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply.

Three stages of growth

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in its global gas strategic planning outlook, identifies three distinct phases of LNG market growth in the coming decade.

First, it says that continued market volatility will remain for the next couple of years as limited supply growth amplifies risk. 

The pace of LNG supply growth and demand across Europe and Asia provide both upside and downside risks. Uncertainty over Russian gas and LNG exports further complicates the matter, making 2025 a potentially tumultuous year for supply, and therefore for prices.

This phase could be followed by a major wave of new supply, ushering in lower prices from 2026, Wood Mackenzie says in the report. 

A muted demand response to lower prices across Asia would undoubtedly draw out the market imbalance. Conversely, supply risks cannot be ruled out. An anticipated escalation of Western sanctions on Russian LNG threatens to impact the overall supply growth scenario, increasing the potential for a stronger-for-longer market.

Beyond 2026, as LNG supply growth slows, prices will recover again before a new wave of LNG supply triggers another cycle of low prices in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie predicts. 

Much will depend on long-term Asian demand growth. Booming power demand and a shift away from coal makes gas and renewables the obvious choice. 

However, if LNG prices are too high, Asia’s most price-sensitive buyers could quickly return to coal. 

On the upside, delays or cancellations to the expansion of Central Asian and Russian pipeline gas into China will push Chinese LNG demand higher for longer. 

Region advances LNG projects with pace

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12432749/main.gif
Indrajit Sen

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Siemens Energy signs preliminary 14GW Iraq pact

    9 May 2025

    Germany's Siemens Energy and Iraq's Electricity Ministry have signed a preliminary agreement to add 14GW of electricity generation capacity to Iraq's grid.

    The firms also signed two long-term service contracts for the Dibis and Al-Mussaib gas-fired power plants.

    The contract for the Dibis power plant covers two generating units with a combined capacity of 340MW.

    The five-year maintenance contract for the Al-Mussaib power station includes the rehabilitation of units with a capacity of 750MW and an additional 150MW, along with support for safe operations and performance optimisation.

    The announcement was made following a meeting between Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Sudani, local media reported. 

    The signing of the deals came a few weeks after US-headquartered GE Vernova signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Iraqi government to establish 24GW of combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants in the country.

    In late April, Iraq and Siemens Energy also announced breaking ground on a project to build a new CCGT power generation plant in Nasiriyah in Iraq’s southern Dhi Qar governorate.   

    The project is part of a $1.68bn development package that Al-Sudani recently launched.

    In addition to the CCGT plant, the other projects include the Nasiriyah Integrated Medical City, a 700-bed hospital complex and infrastructure works in the Suq Al-Shuyukh district.

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13847219/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Abu Dhabi hopes bigger is better with Disney theme park

    8 May 2025

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Ever since Aldar Properties first launched the Yas Island project with its Yas Marina Circuit for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in 2006, Abu Dhabi has been steadily adding theme parks to the island’s roster of attractions. First, there was the Ferrari theme park, then came a water park, a Warner Bros theme park and, most recently, SeaWorld. 

    The theory with theme park development is bigger is better. 

    A destination needs a series of parks to create a critical mass to attract visitors who can stay and enjoy multiple parks in one visit. The example always cited is Florida, which is home to many of the world’s largest theme parks, including Disney World. 

    The theory gained particular traction in the region when Dubai Parks and Resorts opened. The company, which was public until it was acquired by Meraas in 2021, reported significant losses as it struggled to attract enough visitors.

    Although it opened with Legoland, Legoland Waterpark, Motiongate and Bollywood theme parks, insiders said that the problem with the development was that it did not have enough attractions to turn it into a successful theme park destination. 

    The financial performance of theme parks on Yas Island has not been publicly disclosed. While it is accepted that they have been more successful than their counterparts in Dubai, some say that the island still does not have the critical mass required to establish itself as a global destination for theme park visitors.


    Miral has developed a series of theme parks and other entertainment-related attractions on Yas Island 

    Enter Disney

    Disney changes that. It is the largest brand in the theme park space and will be a major attraction, but with limited information released on the project so far, it is difficult to fully gauge how significant the project will be. 

    The official release said that the project will be developed and operated by Abu Dhabi developer Miral, adding that Disney’s in-house design and engineering unit, Walt Disney Imagineering, will lead creative design and operational oversight to provide a world-class experience. It did not give any details on the ownership of the project. 

    In Hong Kong, for example, a company, Hong Kong International Theme Parks, was established as a joint venture, with the Government of Hong Kong holding 57% and The Walt Disney Company holding 43%. 

    In Japan, the structure is different. The Tokyo Disney Resort is owned and operated by Oriental Land, and the company pays licences and royalties to The Walt Disney Company.

    In interviews following the launch announcement, Miral CEO Mohamed Abdalla Al-Zaabi confirmed the arrangement will be like Tokyo. 

    Waterfront location

    The official release for the Abu Dhabi launch also said that the project is on Yas Island, which only has limited areas of land to develop. The release also said that the land is waterfront, and imagery in the launch video shows the Abu Dhabi skyline in the background, suggesting the land is on the northern waterfront of Yas Island. 

    There is a substantial tract of undeveloped land on the north shore of the island, which measures about 2 square kilometres (sq km). This is larger than the site that Hong Kong Disneyland occupies, and much smaller than Disney World in Florida, which spans an area of 111 sq km – nearly five times the size of the whole of Yas Island and nearly double the size of Abu Dhabi Island.

    The hope is that Yas Island will become a leading global theme park destination and attract large numbers of visitors wanting a holiday with multiple theme park visits

    Exclusivity clause

    Another area of interest will be whether Abu Dhabi has an exclusivity agreement with Disney for the region. No exclusivity was mentioned at the launch, but in Hong Kong, the issue became contentious when Disney announced plans to build a park shortly after Disneyland Hong Kong opened. Local politicians criticised the Hong Kong government for not including an exclusivity clause in its deal with Disney. 

    Tourism gateway

    Like Hong Kong, Abu Dhabi is a smaller economy sitting next to a larger regional player. With Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 strategy and its existing roster of theme park developments at Qiddiya, which includes a Six Flags, a water park and a Dragon Ball Z theme park, developers in Riyadh would likely be keen to have a Disney theme park, too. 

    For now, with Disney on board in Abu Dhabi, the hope is that Yas Island will become a leading global theme park destination and attract large numbers of visitors wanting a holiday with multiple theme park visits.

    The potential is certainly there. During the project launch, Disney highlighted that the UAE is located within a four-hour flight of one-third of the world’s population, making it a significant gateway for tourism. It is also home to the largest global airline hub in the world, with 120 million passengers travelling through Abu Dhabi and Dubai each year.

    If that potential is realised, then the bigger is better theory will be proved right. If the park’s performance disappoints, then it will suggest the region is not such a great destination for theme parks after all. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13840555/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Firms bag $850m Qatar substation contracts

    8 May 2025

    Four local and international firms have won contracts for the construction of seven high-voltage substations in Qatar.

    State-backed Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) signed the contracts, which have a total combined value of approximately QR3.1bn ($850m), with the following firms:

    • Elsewedy Cables Qatar Company (local/Egypt)
    • Voltage Engineering (local)
    • Best/Betas Consortium (Turkey)
    • Taihan Cable & Solution (South Korea)

    Kahramaa said the projects aim to “meet electrical network demand in light of the country's fast-growing …urban development”.

    The contracts include the provision and installation of underground cables and overhead lines extending around 212 kilometres to connect these substations.

    Qatari companies won the largest share, equivalent to 58.4% or QR1.8bn, of the total contract value.

    This reflects “our great confidence in the capabilities of the local private sector and its pivotal role in achieving our development vision and achieving Qatar National Vision 2030”, said Kahramaa president Abdulla Bin Ali Al-Theyab.

    Qatar Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, and senior executives from Kahramaa and the contracting firms signed the deals at a ceremony held in Doha.

    Al-Kaabi said the projects will help “ensure our networks' continued and sustainable ability to accommodate the unprecedented growth of the power sector and meet the increasing electricity demand”.

    Kahramaa said the contractors will undertake the construction of electrical substations and the connection of cables and overhead lines, as well as the development of some existing substations to increase their capacity.

    Qatar has been ramping up its power generation capacity in recent years.  

    Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, inaugurated the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants on 28 April.

    The two plants have a combined capacity of 875MW and will more than double Qatar’s solar energy production to 1,675MW.

    In February, Qatar Electricity & Water Company (QEWC) and Kahramaa signed a power-purchase agreement for a 511MW peak electricity generation plant at Ras Abu Fontas, which will have a total cost of approximately QR1.6bn. The peak power plant is scheduled to become operational by January 2027.

    A consortium led by South Korea's Doosan Enerbility, and that includes Beijing-headquartered PowerChina, will undertake the Ras Abu Fontas peak power plant's engineering, procurement and construction contract, with Germany's Siemens Energy supplying the plant's gas turbines.

    Photo credit: Kahramaa

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13838850/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • OQ to take interest in Oman renewable projects

    8 May 2025

    OQ Alternative Energy (OQAE), part of Oman’s state-backed energy group OQ, will be taking shares in Oman’s renewable energy independent power projects (IPP), starting with the Ibri 3 solar scheme.

    “The direction seems to be for OQ Alternative Energy to own up to 25% shares in the upcoming solar and wind IPP projects in the sultanate,” says a source familiar with the plans.

    Before this development, private developers and investors owned the total shares in such projects, similar to the existing structure in Saudi Arabia.

    With this policy change, Oman will now be more closely aligned with the existing project structure in the UAE, where either Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) or the state utility, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa), owns stakes in these projects.

    However, OQAE’s planned 25% ownership share will be slightly lower than the typical 40% to 60% shares that Taqa, Masdar or Dewa owns in the UAE’s renewable energy IPP projects.

    Currently, OQAE owns a 51% share in three renewable energy projects being developed in partnership with France’s TotalEnergies for the state-backed firm, Petroleum Development Oman (PDO).

    The Riyah-1 and Riyah-2 wind power plants will be located in the Amin and West Nimr fields in southern Oman, while the North Solar project will be situated in northern Oman.

    Each plant will have a capacity of 100MW, Total Energies announced in December.

    PDO will purchase the electricity from the plants through long-term power-purchase agreements with the developer team, whose 49% shares are owned by TotalEnergies.

    OQAE is also part of Hyport Coordination Company, a consortium comprising Belgium’s Deme Concessions and BP Oman. The consortium plans to develop a green hydrogen project in Duqm that can produce more than 50 tonnes a year of green hydrogen in its first phase by 2029.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13838800/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Data centres churn investments

    8 May 2025

     

    Global investment firm KKR appointed retired US Army general and former Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus as chairman of its Middle East operations in mid-April.

    The move is indicative of the region’s importance as a destination for the firm’s future investments, and capitalises on the strength of the relationships Petraeus has forged with Gulf country leaders during his years as a top US military strategist.

    KKR’s most recent commitment in the region entails acquiring a stake in UAE-based Gulf Data Hub (GDH), which operates seven data centres in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE firm plans to build additional data centre facilities in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, and KKR has committed to support its $5bn expansion plan.

    “[Petraeus' appointment] is a good move on their part. It reinforces the region’s growing status and importance as a data centre investment destination, due to a significant interest in artificial intelligence (AI) deployments,” says a senior executive with an international data centre operator.

    KKR’s prior investments in the region include a partnership with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in 2019 to create Adnoc Oil Pipelines, and acquiring a portfolio of commercial aircraft from Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways in 2020.

    The private equity firm’s investment in GDH, however, shows only part of the picture as far as the rapidly evolving data centre investment landscape is concerned.

    In March, Abu Dhabi-based critical infrastructure-focused sovereign investor ADQ and US-headquartered power developer Energy Capital Partners agreed to establish a 50:50 partnership to build new power generation and energy infrastructure that will serve the long-term needs of data centres and industrial clusters in the US and selected other international markets.

    The two firms plan to make total capital investments of more than $25bn across 25GW-worth of projects. The combined initial capital contribution from the partners is expected to amount to $5bn.

    That announcement came a day after UAE National Security Adviser and Deputy Ruler of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, met with US President Donald Trump at the White House. During the meeting, the UAE is understood to have committed to a 10-year, $1.4tn investment framework for the US.

    Tech funds

    In the past 24 months, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in particular have set up funds, sometimes in partnership with global firms, to invest in AI and data centre infrastructure, both domestically and abroad.

    Abu Dhabi’s MGX aims to build $100bn in assets under management within a few years, along with US-headquartered and Blackrock-backed Global Infrastructure Partners and Microsoft, the fund's key partners. It is part of the US’ Stargate consortium, which aims to mobilise up to $500bn to build AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years.

    In Riyadh, a $100bn AI initiative known as Project Transcendence is expected to invest in data centres, technology startups and other related infrastructure for the development of AI.

    US-based Silver Lake announced in March 2025 that, together with MGX, it has become a minority shareholder in state-backed, Abu Dhabi-based Khazna Data Centres, one of the region’s largest data centre operators.

    In 2023, Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) partnered with US-based DigitalBridge to develop data centres in Saudi Arabia and across the GCC states.

    In early 2025, Saudi Arabia-based DataVolt – which is owned by Vision Invest, a major shareholder in Saudi utility developer Acwa Power and a public-private partnership advocate – signed a preliminary agreement to build a data centre in Neom, Saudi Arabia. The $5bn facility, with an initial phase of 300MW, is the first of many such schemes that DataVolt is planning.

    Not to be outdone, the founder of Dubai-based private real estate developer Damac pledged to invest $20bn in data centre projects in several US cities earlier this year.

    And there is more to the growing – if outsized – number of bidirectional data centre-focused investment flows than meets the eye.

    Given the global AI race and mounting competition, investment decisions regarding data centres are moving from a simple, commercial focus to account for complex geopolitical considerations, according to Jessica Obeid, a partner at Dubai-headquartered New Energy Consult.

    “As the US weaponises its technological advancements, decisions to invest in US-based data centres hedge against the risks of US export controls, positioning developers in proximity to suppliers, ensuring reliable access to components.

    “Yet, this access could become costlier, driven by trade tariff wars, heightened regulations and limited access to grid infrastructure,” Obeid says.

    She adds that the GCC is quickly positioning itself as a global digital hub, driven by cost-competitive energy, advanced infrastructure and strong government backing.

    “Proximity to reliable power supply at an affordable cost, and speed in licensing processes and grid connections, are increasingly becoming strategic factors in data centre deployment – and the GCC offers that.”

    Powering AI strategies

    Almost all of the GCC states have formulated AI strategies that aim to improve operational efficiencies, create jobs and support their energy transition and net-zero initiatives.

    As a result, analysts expect the region to register double-digit annual growth in data centre construction activities in the next few years.

    In a recent update, global consultancy PwC projected that the Middle East data centre capacity could triple from 1GW in 2025 to 3.3GW in five years’ time.

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, as of April, an estimated $12bn-worth of data centre construction projects are in the planning stage, in addition to over $820m under bid and $7bn under construction.

    Li-Chen Sim, assistant professor of civil security at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa University, says that AI investments are, on the one hand, “all part of a carefully conceived strategy to … diversify out of a hydrocarbons-driven economy, to create new revenue streams from overseas data centres, build new growth sectors, support business requirements and offer more knowledge-based jobs as opposed to traditional manufacturing from domestic investments”.

    On the other hand, AI investments also aim to future-proof the hydrocarbons sector, which Sim expects will continue to be a significant driver of growth, revenue and exports, even as the use of renewable power grows.

    However, the ability of Gulf states to execute their plans for leveraging AI to diversify economies and create jobs –and specifically to address youth unemployment – depends on two factors, according to Obeid.

    The first factor is the ability of countries to advance their AI goals from infrastructure to capital and partnerships. The second involves the speed with which they can build up adequate human capital and a skilled workforce.

    “We will have to see how governments align their educational curricula with the AI policies and electricity infrastructure development,” she says.

    Ecosystem investment

    AI and data centre investments go beyond the facilities that house thousands of advanced graphics processing units, miles of cables and many cooling systems. To run and execute applications – particularly AI inferencing tasks – data centre facilities require a substantial amount of energy. 

    Moreover, data centres in the Middle East and North Africa region face elevated environmental risks due to the high ambient temperatures, which increase energy demand for cooling, as well as water requirements.

    This presents both a challenge and an opportunity, according to Obeid. "The GCC has an opportunity to advance innovation in energy and cooling technologies. Liquid cooling is necessary for AI workloads, and small modular reactors will become central in these data centres.” 

    In January, Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) appeared to show the way with a plan to build a round-the-clock solar photovoltaic (PV) plant combined with a battery energy storage system (bess) facility.

    The 5.2GW solar PV and 19 gigawatt-hour bess plant is expected to deliver renewable power as baseload, and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan has said that the project will help power advancements in AI and emerging technologies, and support the delivery of the UAE National AI Strategy 2031 and 2050 Net Zero initiative.

    Sim agrees that renewables combined with battery storage is part of the answer when it comes to building sustainable data centres. “Globally, data centres consume about 1% of electricity, and this figure – together with carbon emissions by data centres – is expected to grow significantly.”

    He notes that Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that global power demand from data centres will increase 50% by 2027, and 165% by the end of the decade, compared to 2023.

    “The other part of the puzzle with regard to sustainability is water consumption by data centres, particularly those in the Gulf, where high temperatures necessitate even more cooling measures.

    “Singapore, for instance, has pioneered integrated water systems that recycle treated wastewater for reuse – and this circular water model could be an option for data centres in the Gulf, instead of using expensive desalinated water,” says Sim.

    As things stand, the GCC can play a key role in the advancement of these and other technologies, along with efficiency measures and the optimisation of server utilisation through AI applications such as digital twins, says Obeid.

    This is just as well, since the region appears to be on the cusp of a boom in inbound and outbound investments that will build data centre capacity abroad and closer to home.

    “We are at a pivotal moment for innovation, where the intersection of digital advancements and energy innovation could position the GCC as a global leader, shaping the future of sustainable digital infrastructure,” concludes Obeid.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13732105/main5907.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo