meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Global LNG demand set for steady growth

30 August 2024

 

The low density of natural gas makes it costlier to contain and transport compared to other fossil fuels such as coal or crude oil. 

For more than a century after gas was recognised as a viable energy source, producers were unable to utilise the fundamental infrastructure that facilitated international oil trade – marine transportation.

Prior to the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, the transportation of gas was limited to movement by pipeline. The development of LNG revolutionised the manner in which gas is transported and consumed worldwide. 

The first experimental shipment of LNG was made from Lake Charles in the US state of Louisiana to Canvey Island in the UK in 1958, aboard the vessel the Methane Pioneer. Since then, with improvements in technology and cost efficiencies, LNG has become an internationally traded commodity, the demand for which has risen through the years.

LNG production and transmission

LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to a liquid state by cooling it to a cryogenic temperature of -160 degrees Celsius. Natural gas is converted to a liquid in a liquefaction plant, or train.

Train sizes tend to be limited by the size of the available compressors. In the early years of development, train sizes had capacities of about 2 million tonnes a year (t/y), and a greenfield facility would often require three trains to be economically viable.

Improvements in compressor technology in this century have made it possible to design larger trains, to benefit from economies of scale. In the early 2000s, Qatar’s state-owned companies Qatargas and RasGas, in partnership with Western companies such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies (which was known as Total at the time), started operating trains with capacities of 7.8 million t/y.

When natural gas is in a liquid form, it takes up approximately one 600th of the space it would occupy as a vapour. Reducing its volume and its weight by half makes it easier and safer to transport across long distances on specially designed double-hull ships or vessels. 

In the final stage of transmission, LNG is offloaded from a marine jetty to cryogenic storage tanks at the receiving terminal. It remains at -160 degrees Celsius during this process.

Benefits and applications

A slew of benefits and applications in various industries has fuelled the growth of LNG in the global economy. 

LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than oil, therefore offering lower carbon emissions. 

The LNG liquefaction process also releases very little nitrogen oxide, a harmful greenhouse gas, and sulphur dioxide, which can cause significant damage to terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems.

With an energy density 600 times greater than natural gas, LNG can be used as an alternative fuel for sectors such as shipping. This helps to reduce the carbon footprint of industries that are slower to decarbonise.

On the socioeconomic front, LNG sales have facilitated the economic progress of producer nations, as witnessed in Australia, Qatar and Nigeria. Consumer countries also get access to a source of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.

Separately, investments in LNG – in the form of LNG infrastructure building, as well as the expansion of production facilities – spur economic growth and help to stimulate job creation.

LNG is primarily used as a major source for electricity generation in powering industries, households and social infrastructure.

The chemicals industry is also one of the largest consumers of LNG, where it is mainly used for steam production and for heating, cracking and reforming units.

In the transport sector, meanwhile, LNG is one of the foremost sources of fuel, particularly for marine tankers and heavy surface vehicles, due to its high energy density compared to conventional fuels, coupled with its low emissions.

In addition, in food manufacturing, LNG is used as fuel for intense processes such as the steaming and drying of food produce.

Buoyant demand outlook

According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024, the global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China, and as South and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth.

Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages.

Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach about 625-685 million t/y in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.

“China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas,” says Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, in the company’s LNG Outlook 2024. 

“With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkiye combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”

Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, these countries will need to make significant investments in their gas import infrastructure, Shell said in the report.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 also notes that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply.

Three stages of growth

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in its global gas strategic planning outlook, identifies three distinct phases of LNG market growth in the coming decade.

First, it says that continued market volatility will remain for the next couple of years as limited supply growth amplifies risk. 

The pace of LNG supply growth and demand across Europe and Asia provide both upside and downside risks. Uncertainty over Russian gas and LNG exports further complicates the matter, making 2025 a potentially tumultuous year for supply, and therefore for prices.

This phase could be followed by a major wave of new supply, ushering in lower prices from 2026, Wood Mackenzie says in the report. 

A muted demand response to lower prices across Asia would undoubtedly draw out the market imbalance. Conversely, supply risks cannot be ruled out. An anticipated escalation of Western sanctions on Russian LNG threatens to impact the overall supply growth scenario, increasing the potential for a stronger-for-longer market.

Beyond 2026, as LNG supply growth slows, prices will recover again before a new wave of LNG supply triggers another cycle of low prices in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie predicts. 

Much will depend on long-term Asian demand growth. Booming power demand and a shift away from coal makes gas and renewables the obvious choice. 

However, if LNG prices are too high, Asia’s most price-sensitive buyers could quickly return to coal. 

On the upside, delays or cancellations to the expansion of Central Asian and Russian pipeline gas into China will push Chinese LNG demand higher for longer. 

Region advances LNG projects with pace

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12432749/main.gif
Indrajit Sen

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • QatarEnergy gives North Field West topside bidders more time

    2 October 2026

     

    QatarEnergy has granted contractors more time to prepare bids for a tender covering the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of large platforms for the North Field gas field in Qatari waters.

    Contractors now have until 12 October to submit technical bids for the project, according to sources. Commercial bids are currently due on 10 November.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the North Field West (NFW) production deck modules (PDMs) tender:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Saipem (Italy)

    The core scope comprises the EPCI of four PDMs and associated structures. The PDMs will increase gas production from North Field reservoirs and provide additional gas feedstock for the NFW liquefied natural gas (LNG) development.

    The tender, issued earlier this year, forms part of the wider NFW project, the third and final phase of the state enterprise’s North Field LNG expansion programme.

    The previous deadlines for technical bids were 30 August, 15 September and 28 September, while commercial bids were previously due on 25 October, as MEED reported.

    Before issuing the PDMs tender, QatarEnergy awarded US firm McDermott a contract for the EPCI of four offshore jackets that will also support gas feedstock supply for the NFW LNG project. The contract is estimated to be worth about $200m, MEED reported in January.

    North Field LNG expansion

    QatarEnergy is advancing the three phases of its estimated $40bn North Field LNG expansion project. EPC works on all three projects are progressing.

    QatarEnergy is understood to have committed nearly $30bn to the first two phases – North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) – which will lift Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) to 126 million t/y by 2028.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts for NFE in 2021. The project was intended to raise LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The $13bn EPC package – covering the EPCI of four LNG trains, each with a capacity of 8 million t/y – was awarded in February 2021 to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip Energies.

    In May 2023, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for NFS to a consortium of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). The contract includes two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.8 million t/y.

    Once fully operational, the first two phases are expected to add 48 million t/y of LNG supply to the global market.

    QatarEnergy took the final investment decision on NFW earlier this year, awarding an EPC contract estimated at $8bn to a joint venture comprising Technip Energies, CCC and Gulf Asia Contracting in February.

    Chiyoda carried out the front-end engineering and design work for the NFW LNG project.

    The NFW scope covers the EPC of two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16 million t/y, as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery and helium extraction.

    In addition to LNG, NFW is expected to produce about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of condensate, ethane and liquefied petroleum gas.

    With all three phases under EPC execution – and NFE scheduled for commissioning later this year – QatarEnergy is positioning itself to remain one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers in the long term.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20208200/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Egypt implements oil and gas storage projects worth $1.1bn

    2 October 2026

    Egypt is implementing oil and gas storage projects worth a total of £E54bn ($1.1bn), according to a statement released by the country’s cabinet.

    Active developments include expanding El-Hamra Petroleum Port in El-Alamein on the Mediterranean coast, as well as building a jet-fuel storage and transport hub at the Badr depot in Cairo.

    Other projects include constructing new storage tanks at refinery complexes in Amreya, Alexandria; Assiut; and Cairo.

    Over the past 12 years, Egypt has built 84 petroleum storage facilities with a total capacity of 5.2 million tonnes, the cabinet statement said.

    Egypt has invested £E42.7bn ($880m) in developing these facilities, with the aim of bolstering domestic energy security.

    Completed infrastructure projects include facilities in Sohag (Upper Egypt) and Alexandria.

    They also include offshore terminal and storage facilities, a liquid bulk station in Ain Sokhna, and strategic crude oil storage tanks across the country.

    Storage facilities have become a strategic priority for Egypt since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, triggering a regional war that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The disruption has made imports of hydrocarbon products into Egypt less predictable, increasing the importance of strategic stockpiles.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20208195/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Bankability key to Saudi PPP pipeline

    2 October 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) holds structured talks with bidders and lenders before launching transactions to ensure projects in its pipeline are bankable, according to a senior official.

    Speaking on a panel at MEED’s Shaping Mega Projects conference in Riyadh on 28 September, Tariq Alghaziri, executive vice-president at the NCP, said the centre carries out market sounding with potential bidders and debt providers, including commercial and Islamic banks, before announcing deals.

    “Bankability is a key word for us,” he said. “You can structure the deal in the way you want. You can have whatever technicalities and technologies are required, but is it suitable for the private sector to deliver? That’s the big question.”

    Alghaziri said the national privatisation strategy, approved at the end of 2025 and published at the start of 2026, sets the NCP’s targets up to 2030 and outlines its project pipeline. The strategy coincides with the third phase of Vision 2030, which he said is focused on measuring impact after earlier phases established the legal framework and enabled the private sector.

    Public-private partnership (PPP) contracts typically run for 25 years and, in some cases, more than 40 years, he said, which makes early engagement essential. “When we launch it, all the bidders, suppliers, EPC contractors, banks and ECAs are on the same page, and then they just have to align on commercial points and not negotiate legal aspects.”

    Risk transfer

    Jonathan Looker, managing director for Saudi Arabia at UK consultancy Mott MacDonald, said the public and private sectors often perceive risk very differently.

    "Can you put yourself in the shoes of the person you’re trying to transfer risk to?” he said. “There isn’t one single allocation model that is fit for every project.”

    Looker said failure to agree on risk can prevent projects from reaching financial close. "I’ve unfortunately been involved in a number of projects where we just can’t get the deal done because there is not a meeting of minds around a specific aspect of risk.”

    Alghaziri said Saudi regulations now state that the party with the capacity to manage a risk should take it, but that risk carries a cost. “You cannot just give the risk without pricing it,” he said. The NCP has trained more than 300 people over the past five or six years, including through a PPP professional certification it introduced in the kingdom.

    Early planning

    Hesham Ouf, senior director of finance at Roshn Group, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary, said risk management begins at the feasibility stage. “You need to have the stage gates right from the beginning until the project is delivered,” he said.

    Ali Al-Kuwari, senior manager of export development at Qatar Development Bank (QDB), said early disclosure of procurement needs allows lenders to assess project risk. “For me, the answer is very easy. I’ll ask for a sovereign guarantee,” he said.

    Wesley Thomson, partner and head of environmental, social and governance (ESG) at UK property consultancy Knight Frank, said climate exposure is becoming a central risk for long-life assets. “Mitigation is not the right word any more. I prefer to say adaptation, because the truth is you need to adapt to what we’re seeing.”

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20207592/main.png
    Colin Foreman
  • Financing hinders progress at major Iraqi refinery project

    2 October 2026

     

    Financial problems are hindering progress at Iraq’s Al-Faw Investment Refinery project, according to industry sources.

    Despite the main contract being signed more than two years ago, construction of the main refinery units has yet to begin because of ongoing financial issues, sources said.

    In May 2024, a statement released by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office said that Iraq’s state-owned Southern Refineries Company and China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC) had signed a contract to develop the project.

    Iraq’s Oil Ministry previously said the project would be worth $7bn-$8bn.

    The project has struggled to make progress even after direct intervention by Iraq’s previous prime minister.

    On 6 August 2025, 15 months after the May 2024 contract signing with CNCEC, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, then prime minister, chaired a special meeting to resolve administrative and technical obstacles preventing the project from starting.

    At the time, Al-Sudani said the refinery project would have significant financial returns and would be “a breakthrough in the oil industry”.

    While the meeting in 2025 is believed to have solved some of the administrative issues blocking progress, financial problems with the project remain, sources said.

    The Al-Faw project is part of the Iraqi government’s plan to increase Iraq’s refining capacity, attract foreign investment and increase domestic production of petroleum products.

    Under existing plans, the refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets.

    The project will be carried out in two stages.

    The first phase will involve refining operations, while the second will involve constructing a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million tonnes a year.

    The project also includes building a 2,000MW power plant and establishing the Al-Faw Academy for Refinery Technology to train 5,000 Iraqi workers who will eventually work at the facility.

    Hualu, a subsidiary of CNCEC, signed a preliminary principles agreement for the project in December 2021.

    Due to material price inflation since December 2021, some insiders believe the project value may now be significantly higher than the previously estimated $7bn-$8bn.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20207119/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Saudi pre-budget leans on borrowing to fund projects

    2 October 2026

    Saudi Arabia plans to spend SR1.39tn ($371.2bn) in 2027, according to the Finance Ministry’s pre-budget statement. That is 3% less than the estimated outturn for 2026, after regional conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed this year’s expenditure well past its allocation.

    The ministry now expects 2026 spending to reach SR1.44tn, which is SR122bn or 9.3% above the SR1.31tn approved in the budget. Revenues are estimated at SR1.19tn, SR43bn above budget, leaving a deficit of SR245bn, equal to 4.9% of GDP. The original budget assumed a SR165bn deficit, or 3.3% of GDP.

    For 2027, the statement projects revenues of SR1.2tn and a deficit of SR191bn, or 3.6% of GDP. Expenditure is forecast to rise to SR1.48tn in 2028 and SR1.54tn in 2029, with deficits of SR177bn and SR192bn projected for those years. On the ministry’s figures, the kingdom will run cumulative deficits of SR560bn ($149.3bn) between 2027 and 2029.

    The economic backdrop has deteriorated sharply. The ministry expects real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2026, driven by a 21.8% fall in oil activity, while non-oil activity grows by 3.2%. It forecasts a rebound to 12.8% real growth in 2027.

    Capital spending

    The statement does not publish a capital expenditure figure or a sector breakdown. Those will follow with the budget in Q4. It does signal that project spending will continue. As Vision 2030 enters what the statement calls its third phase, the government says efforts will focus on “accelerating the pace of delivery and capitalising on growth opportunities through continued government capital expenditure”. It also wants a stronger role for the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the National Development Fund in stimulating domestic investment.

    The ministry says it will “implement infrastructure-related programmes” and direct resources “towards priority programmes and projects”. It also commits to “maximise the utilisation of existing government assets and investments”. That wording points to a sharper focus on completing and monetising existing schemes rather than launching new ones.

    The medium-term debt strategy is designed to ensure “the continuity of the implementation of priority projects without being linked to the fluctuations of the economic cycle”, according to the statement.

    The government’s revenue scenarios hold expenditure at SR1.39tn in all three cases. Under the lowest revenue case of SR1.13tn, the deficit widens to SR259bn. The highest case of SR1.26tn narrows it to SR132bn. Any change falls on borrowing rather than on spending.

    The ministry says debt will deliberately rise by the end of 2027, and the borrowing plan will be disclosed by the end of this year. Alongside bonds, sukuk and loans, the government plans to expand “alternative government financing, including financing of projects, infrastructure and export credit agencies” in 2027 and over the medium term.

    Private capital

    The statement presents private investment as a growing share of project delivery. Investment in privatisation and public-private partnership (PPP) projects reached about SR180bn by the end of 2025. The National Privatisation Strategy was approved in November 2025. Ten privatisation and PPP projects have been launched under it in the first half of 2026, including the Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz International Airport PPP in Qassim. Contracts were signed for the Sabic Mental Health Hospital and the Jubail Container Terminal, taking the total to 83 partnership contracts. Private capital investment has exceeded SR56.2bn, against a target of SR240bn by 2030.

    The National Infrastructure Fund has committed SR10.5bn since 2022 to projects with a combined value of about SR59.3bn, of which SR44.1bn is private investment. Projects it has backed include the Neom green hydrogen project, the Shuaibah solar photovoltaic plants, the Prince Mohammad Bin Abdulaziz Airport expansion, the Jubail-Buraidah independent water transmission pipeline and the Ezditek data centre. The fund plans to expand into healthcare, education, sports and artificial intelligence.

    PIF’s domestic investments totalled about SR750bn between 2021 and 2025. The statement lists several recent contracts across its portfolio. Diriyah Company, the PIF-owned developer of the Diriyah gigaproject, awarded a SR1.8bn contract to a consortium of local companies to build the Saudi Museum of Contemporary Art. PIF-owned Soudah Development signed a SR1.3bn agreement with National Grid SA, the transmission subsidiary of Saudi Electricity Company, to deliver electricity infrastructure for the Soudah Peaks project. Saudi Entertainment Ventures, also owned by PIF, plans 14 destinations across 13 cities, with investment of more than SR45bn. The Saudi Export-Import Bank plans to provide SR41.6bn of financing and insurance to non-oil exporters in 2027.

    Logistics investment has also become a priority since the disruption to Gulf shipping. The share of non-oil exports passing through Red Sea ports rose to 40.7% during the crisis, from 19.3% before it. In July, the General Ports Authority signed contracts worth up to SR1bn for seven logistics centres at Jeddah Islamic Port and Al-Khumrah. A separate logistics corridors initiative connects Gulf ports to the Red Sea by road and rail.

    The final 2027 budget is due for approval in Q4.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20206117/main.gif
    Colin Foreman