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Global LNG demand set for steady growth

30 August 2024

 

The low density of natural gas makes it costlier to contain and transport compared to other fossil fuels such as coal or crude oil. 

For more than a century after gas was recognised as a viable energy source, producers were unable to utilise the fundamental infrastructure that facilitated international oil trade – marine transportation.

Prior to the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, the transportation of gas was limited to movement by pipeline. The development of LNG revolutionised the manner in which gas is transported and consumed worldwide. 

The first experimental shipment of LNG was made from Lake Charles in the US state of Louisiana to Canvey Island in the UK in 1958, aboard the vessel the Methane Pioneer. Since then, with improvements in technology and cost efficiencies, LNG has become an internationally traded commodity, the demand for which has risen through the years.

LNG production and transmission

LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to a liquid state by cooling it to a cryogenic temperature of -160 degrees Celsius. Natural gas is converted to a liquid in a liquefaction plant, or train.

Train sizes tend to be limited by the size of the available compressors. In the early years of development, train sizes had capacities of about 2 million tonnes a year (t/y), and a greenfield facility would often require three trains to be economically viable.

Improvements in compressor technology in this century have made it possible to design larger trains, to benefit from economies of scale. In the early 2000s, Qatar’s state-owned companies Qatargas and RasGas, in partnership with Western companies such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies (which was known as Total at the time), started operating trains with capacities of 7.8 million t/y.

When natural gas is in a liquid form, it takes up approximately one 600th of the space it would occupy as a vapour. Reducing its volume and its weight by half makes it easier and safer to transport across long distances on specially designed double-hull ships or vessels. 

In the final stage of transmission, LNG is offloaded from a marine jetty to cryogenic storage tanks at the receiving terminal. It remains at -160 degrees Celsius during this process.

Benefits and applications

A slew of benefits and applications in various industries has fuelled the growth of LNG in the global economy. 

LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than oil, therefore offering lower carbon emissions. 

The LNG liquefaction process also releases very little nitrogen oxide, a harmful greenhouse gas, and sulphur dioxide, which can cause significant damage to terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems.

With an energy density 600 times greater than natural gas, LNG can be used as an alternative fuel for sectors such as shipping. This helps to reduce the carbon footprint of industries that are slower to decarbonise.

On the socioeconomic front, LNG sales have facilitated the economic progress of producer nations, as witnessed in Australia, Qatar and Nigeria. Consumer countries also get access to a source of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.

Separately, investments in LNG – in the form of LNG infrastructure building, as well as the expansion of production facilities – spur economic growth and help to stimulate job creation.

LNG is primarily used as a major source for electricity generation in powering industries, households and social infrastructure.

The chemicals industry is also one of the largest consumers of LNG, where it is mainly used for steam production and for heating, cracking and reforming units.

In the transport sector, meanwhile, LNG is one of the foremost sources of fuel, particularly for marine tankers and heavy surface vehicles, due to its high energy density compared to conventional fuels, coupled with its low emissions.

In addition, in food manufacturing, LNG is used as fuel for intense processes such as the steaming and drying of food produce.

Buoyant demand outlook

According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024, the global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China, and as South and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth.

Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages.

Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach about 625-685 million t/y in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.

“China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas,” says Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, in the company’s LNG Outlook 2024. 

“With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkiye combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”

Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, these countries will need to make significant investments in their gas import infrastructure, Shell said in the report.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 also notes that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply.

Three stages of growth

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in its global gas strategic planning outlook, identifies three distinct phases of LNG market growth in the coming decade.

First, it says that continued market volatility will remain for the next couple of years as limited supply growth amplifies risk. 

The pace of LNG supply growth and demand across Europe and Asia provide both upside and downside risks. Uncertainty over Russian gas and LNG exports further complicates the matter, making 2025 a potentially tumultuous year for supply, and therefore for prices.

This phase could be followed by a major wave of new supply, ushering in lower prices from 2026, Wood Mackenzie says in the report. 

A muted demand response to lower prices across Asia would undoubtedly draw out the market imbalance. Conversely, supply risks cannot be ruled out. An anticipated escalation of Western sanctions on Russian LNG threatens to impact the overall supply growth scenario, increasing the potential for a stronger-for-longer market.

Beyond 2026, as LNG supply growth slows, prices will recover again before a new wave of LNG supply triggers another cycle of low prices in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie predicts. 

Much will depend on long-term Asian demand growth. Booming power demand and a shift away from coal makes gas and renewables the obvious choice. 

However, if LNG prices are too high, Asia’s most price-sensitive buyers could quickly return to coal. 

On the upside, delays or cancellations to the expansion of Central Asian and Russian pipeline gas into China will push Chinese LNG demand higher for longer. 

Region advances LNG projects with pace

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Indrajit Sen

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    1 November 2026

     

    The war in the Gulf is now inflicting deep damage on the region’s economies. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts contraction in every GCC state except Oman in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to shrink by 3.3%, after 4.6% growth in 2025, and the UAE’s by 3.9%, after 6.2% growth.

    The IMF expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Qatar’s by 15.6% and Bahrain’s by 11.3%, as energy and transport disruption cuts exports. Oman, with routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, is forecast to grow by 4.1%.

    The fund has cut its 2026 forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by 2.2 percentage points since April, to a contraction of 0.3%, citing a longer closure of the strait than it had previously assumed. The revision for Saudi Arabia is 6.4 percentage points. The IMF now assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027, with a return to prewar conditions broadly by October 2027.

    There is little sign of an early end to hostilities. On 10 October, a Houthi-attributed strike on a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Airport operations were suspended and several international airlines cancelled flights.

    Yet the region’s projects market is holding up far better than its economies. Data from MEED Projects shows that contract awards in 2026 have proved resilient, with clients across the GCC continuing to commit capital to new schemes.

    The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies

    Resilient awards

    The UAE leads the regional market for a second consecutive year, with the value of contract awards 6.1% higher than in the same period of 2025. Oman and Kuwait are also running ahead of last year’s pace, despite the IMF’s forecast that Kuwait’s economy will contract by about a sixth.

    Saudi Arabia has awarded $68.8bn of contracts so far this year, 13% less than in the same period of 2025. Given that the kingdom has been the main target of the Houthi campaign, and was already revising its spending priorities before the conflict, the decline is modest.

    The comparison is against a high base. The past three years have seen unprecedented GCC capital expenditure, supported by higher oil prices, residential demand and national vision programmes. More than three quarters has been concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    The gap between economic output and project spending reflects the nature of the projects market. Governments and state-linked entities can sustain capital budgets through a downturn using reserves and borrowing. GDP contraction, by contrast, reflects lost oil and gas exports, tourism and trade.

    The UAE’s performance this year has been driven by the gas and transport sectors, which have recorded the strongest growth. Construction, the country’s largest sector, has declined as the real estate market has cooled.

    Abu Dhabi has been the standout performer. Contract awards in the capital are up 35% on the same period of last year, with growth across the construction, gas, oil and transport sectors.

    Public spending is a central reason for that resilience. Fitch Ratings expects Abu Dhabi’s spending to rise by 19% this year, equivalent to 3.7% of GDP, to support the non-oil economy. Data from the Central Bank of the UAE shows consolidated government capital expenditure rose to AED18.6bn ($5.1bn) in Q1 2026 from
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    Fitch expects UAE infrastructure and government-related entity capital spending to rise significantly in 2026 and 2027, both to strengthen resilience against future conflicts and stimulate the economy. Emirates have already accelerated tendering on several projects.

    Transport remains a priority. Plans include further sections of the national passenger rail network, a high-speed rail link between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, a light rail system in Abu Dhabi and the Dubai Metro Gold Line. The $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport in Dubai is moving towards delivery with the award of the first major construction packages.

    Economic headwinds

    Both the IMF and Fitch expect a strong rebound once the strait reopens. The IMF forecasts 2027 growth of 7.7% in the UAE, 7.9% in Saudi Arabia, 18.8% in Qatar and 17.1% in Kuwait. Fitch forecasts UAE non-oil growth of 6.1% next year. Paul Gamble, senior director at Fitch, cautioned that prolonged insecurity “will call into question logistical advantages” that underpin the UAE’s growth model.

    Beneath the headline award totals, there are warning signs. Regional contract awards performed well between March and June, but the value of work awarded in recent months has dropped sharply compared with the same months of 2025. According to MEED Projects, the main cause is a fall in the number of tenders being issued, particularly in real estate.

    The timing is significant. The strong period included the April ceasefire, when clients appear to have pressed ahead expecting a short conflict. Tendering slowed as hostilities resumed. In July, Iranian attacks reached Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, while Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia began.

    The pattern suggests conflict fatigue may be setting in, with clients deferring projects amid a war with no clear end date. As tendering is a leading indicator, the impact on awards is likely to become more visible in coming months.

    In Saudi Arabia, monthly performance has been mixed as the market adjusts to revised spending priorities and the regional conflict. Most sectors are up on last year, with the exception of power and water, which has struggled in 2026, possibly as a result of overbuilding in the past three years. The kingdom’s gigaprojects have continued their retreat. Awards peaked at $31.7bn in 2023 and fell to $14.4bn in 2025. The total so far in 2026 is $9.4bn, most of it for work at Qiddiya, Diriyah and Rua Al-Madinah.

    The GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years

    Dubai slowdown

    The clearest signal of the conflict’s impact on the projects market comes from Dubai. The emirate’s market performed strongly until May. Since then, activity has been subdued, and contract awards for the year to date are 0.6% lower than in the same period of 2025.

    The main cause is a decline in residential contract awards. Data from Bayut and the Dubai Land Department shows a marked fall in the value of off-plan sales since late February, when the war began. Residential construction awards have fallen in step, with no sign of the time lag that would normally be expected.

    Third-quarter figures from Savills confirm the trend. Residential transactions fell 38% year on year to 34,500, and transaction value dropped 46% to AED70.8bn ($19.3bn) from AED132.2bn. The decline was concentrated in the off-plan segment, where value fell to AED45.7bn in Q3 from AED61.3bn in Q2, while ready-market value rose to AED25.1bn from AED21.3bn.

    Developers have sharply reduced new launches. Savills recorded about 5,000 units launched in Q3, taking the total for the year to date to about 50,000, roughly 64% below the same period of 2025. Fewer launches mean fewer construction contracts, which explains why residential awards have fallen so quickly. More than 525,000 units are scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030, which Fitch says could add pressure to a sector accounting for 8% of non-oil GDP if population growth weakens.

    Escaping Hormuz

    The conflict is also generating new project demand. Saudi Arabia is prioritising ports and transport infrastructure on the Red Sea coast, along with new pipelines to the Red Sea and to Oman. The UAE is developing ports and transport links to the east coast and Oman, and additional pipelines to Fujairah. Fitch anticipates new and expanded road, rail, pipeline and port infrastructure in Oman and Saudi Arabia as GCC states seek routes that bypass the strait.

    The IMF’s forecasts underline the value of those routes. It describes Saudi Arabia as “somewhat less affected” than its neighbours because of its more diversified export routes, while Oman is the only GCC state forecast to grow this year. Houthi strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu in September show that Red Sea infrastructure is not beyond reach, however. Defence spending is rising in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and repair and rehabilitation work will add to the pipeline once hostilities end.

    The long-term fundamentals remain strong: the GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years, about half of it in Saudi Arabia. Many of the kingdom’s priorities are tied to fixed dates, with Riyadh hosting the World Expo in 2030 and Saudi Arabia hosting the Fifa World Cup in 2034.

    The capacity to fund this pipeline depends on oil revenues. MEED’s assessment is that crude prices must remain above $70-$80 a barrel for spending levels to be maintained. With exports through Hormuz disrupted, the volume of oil Gulf producers can move to market matters as much as the price.

    The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies. The question for the final quarter is whether the slowdown in tendering is a temporary pause or the start of a sustained retreat. If the IMF’s assumption of a March 2027 reopening of the strait holds, clients will be setting their 2027 budgets with a rebound in sight. If it slips, the resilience of contract awards will face a sterner test. 

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      Petro Rabigh appointed Australia-headquartered Worley last year to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed) work for the bottom-of-the-barrel project.

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      Petro Rabigh will draw on Worley’s expertise in design, procurement and processing technologies, including light-naphtha isomerisation; vacuum-residue processing through deasphalting and dewaxing; an ebullated-bed configuration integrated with the diesel-hydrotreating section; and unconverted-oil hydrotreatment.

      Worley recently confirmed its contract award from Petro Rabigh, saying it will deliver engineering, project management, procurement support and related consultancy services for projects across its client’s portfolio.

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      Separately, Petro Rabigh awarded US-based KBR a 10-year maintenance contract in February to support its polymer plants in Rabigh.

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      In March 2024, Petro Rabigh also awarded KBR a similar five-year asset-condition-monitoring contract. Under that programme, KBR is providing predictive-maintenance services at Petro Rabigh’s main plant.

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    • Contractors submit Riyadh Expo KSA pavilion bids

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      Earlier this week, ERC appointed UK-based Mace as procurement advisory consultant for Expo 2030 Riyadh, supporting procurement activities across the programme.

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      Yasir Iqbal
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      Fujian Mancheng Industries & Investment will invest $52m in a ceramics facility covering more than 241,000 sq m. Other investments in Madayn’s industrial cities include an $18.2m phosphate and nitrogen fertiliser plant planned by Gulf Company for Organic and Biological Fertilisers in Raysut, as well as projects involving structural metal products, paper and corrugated cardboard, and oil and gas equipment and services in Raysut, Ibri and Nizwa.

      In Sohar Free Zone, Sohar Automotive & Advanced Industries Company will invest $98.8m in an automobile assembly complex covering 317,000 sq m. The complex aims to attract vehicle manufacturers, automotive supply-chain companies and advanced-manufacturing businesses.

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      Lalan Middle East will invest a further $3.9m to expand its medical-device manufacturing facility.

      ALSO READ: Oman’s Madayn prepares $637m investment drive

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      Projects in Khazaen Economic City include a plant by Aleemit International Services to manufacture electric-vehicle chargers and components, with an investment of more than $8.8m, and a $6.5m facility by Joger Modular Building Technologies to produce precast-concrete building components.

      Additional investments in Khazaen include construction materials, ready-mix concrete, industrial units, logistics facilities and warehouses.

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      Indrajit Sen