meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

What happens in Georgia matters to the Gulf

28 May 2024

 

Register for MEED's guest programme 

The ongoing demonstration of tens of thousands of ordinary Georgians against the reintroduction of a so-called “foreign influence” bill is an emerging source of uncertainty for investors at home and abroad, including in the Arab Gulf States.

Backed by the governing Georgian Dream party, the controversial legislation requires media and non-governmental organisations receiving more than 20% funding from abroad to register as an organisation “pursuing the interests of a foreign power”.

Critics have branded the bill the “Russian law”, warning that similar legislation has been used there to quieten free speech and crack down on dissent.

After being passed by Georgia’s unicameral parliament, President Salome Zurabishvili refused to sign the bill into law, despite her opposition being likely to be overruled by Georgian Dream. Following its forced passage, protestors gathered outside Georgia’s parliament building and clashed with police.

A further intensification of protests and violence cannot be ruled out in a country with a rich history of political instability. It would therefore be wise for the GCC states to pay close attention to what might happen next.

Gulf exposure

The GCC has an active interest in maintaining a wary eye on Georgia due to the exponential growth of the region’s economic interests in the Caucasian country in recent years, particularly in its tourism sector.

Statistics suggest that by the end of 2022, the country welcomed almost 210,000 tourists from Gulf states, 15 times more than a decade ago. With a 60% increase in visitors between 2019 and 2022, Saudi Arabia arguably provides the most intriguing rise.

Irrespective of where they come from, many GCC tourists enjoy visiting Georgia for its acceptance of Halal and other Islamic practices, its temperate summer climate and increasing opportunities to indulge in winter sports at its mountain resorts.

Presently, the UAE leads the GCC’s investment into Georgia’s tourist economy. Tourism is also one of the focus areas of the UAE-Georgia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed between the two countries in October 2023.

The agreement not only reinforces the UAE’s status as Georgia’s sixth largest investor, but also seeks to double non-oil trade from $481m to $1.5bn in five years. Beyond tourism, target sectors include agriculture, renewables and technology.

The UAE’s foothold in Georgia’s infrastructure is also growing following AD Ports Group’s recent acquisition of a 60% stake in Tbilisi’s dry port. This inland terminal is situated along the Middle Corridor, a trade lane linking manufacturing hubs in Asia with consumer markets in Eastern Europe.

Other significant players in Georgia’s infrastructural development include China, which recently completed a 9,000-metre-long tunnel along the country’s Kvesheti-Kobi road. Improved infrastructure is also integral to Georgia’s currently imperiled candidacy for membership of the EU.

Business conditions

Economists will tell you that the ideal conditions for economic development include infrastructure investment, open trade and investment regimes and political stability.

There can be no denying that Georgia’s steady economic growth in recent years has benefitted from having all three pillars in place, even if political stability is perceived by some to have come at the cost of bona fide democracy.

Conversely, expert-level knowledge is not required to make the connection between political unrest and faltering economic conditions, particularly in key sectors such as tourism.

While Tbilisi remains the main focus of protests and international coverage, opponents of the “foreign influence” bill have made their presence felt in other parts of Georgia, including Batumi, the country’s third city and Black Sea resort.

This places Georgia’s two leading tourist destinations and associated logistics – most notably Shota Rustaveli Tbilisi International airport – on the frontline of both current and future instability. The same can also be said of many GCC investments and business interests in Georgia’s tourist sector.

Next month’s Eid Al Adha will provide valuable insights into how Georgia’s political turmoil is starting to influence choices made by GCC residents and impacting regional economic objectives. Islam’s second major holiday is regularly accompanied by a getaway from the region to cooler climes.

With a two-hour flying time and regular flights from Doha, Dubai and Riyadh, among others, Georgia represented a convenient, relatively safe and value-for-money tourist destination. That is until the country’s latest round of political protests and volatility.

Unlike tourists, those GCC companies and investors with a long-term stake in Georgia’s economy and infrastructure have little option but to watch how political events unfold.

Some worst-case scenarios could prove unpalatable: real estate in tourist locations underutilised during peak seasons; logistics hubs losing business as manufacturers divert to safer trading routes; missed opportunities to bolster regional food security through the export of cheaper agricultural products.

The GCC, and especially the UAE, is by no means the only regional grouping or country that is keeping an eye on Georgia’s uncertain political situation. With growing interest in developing the Middle Corridor and Black Sea port of Anaklia, China particularly stands to benefit from the country’s return to stability.

The same is also true of the US and EU, both concerned about Russia’s rising influence over a country that was once part of the Soviet Union

Accordingly, the GCC has options regarding who it can work with to persuade Georgia to collectively do more to resolve its political crisis.

The challenge facing the group is making the most politically astute and economically expedient choice of partner(s) at the appropriate time in Georgia’s unfolding political drama.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11821175/main.gif

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • GCC banks show resilience amid regional conflict

    5 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The GCC’s banking sector is facing its most significant test in years following the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran, and the subsequent strikes launched by Iran on all six GCC states.

    The data so far indicates that the region’s finances are holding firm. “Fitch believes GCC sovereign ratings generally have sufficient headroom to withstand a short regional conflict that does not escalate significantly further, including in most cases substantial assets that provide a buffer against short-term hydrocarbon revenue disruption,” it said in a report on 3 March.

    In the UAE, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) issued a statement on 5 March saying that the nation’s banking and financial sector continues to operate normally. It said the UAE’s banking assets now exceed AED5.42tn ($1.48tn), supported by a capital adequacy ratio of 17% and a liquidity coverage ratio of 146.6%, adding that both figures sit comfortably above international regulatory requirements.

    “The UAE’s banking and financial sector continues to maintain very strong levels of capital adequacy and liquidity … reflecting the scale, resilience and strength of financial institutions operating in the country,” said Khaled Mohamed Balama, governor of the CBUAE.

    While the immediate financial metrics are sound, the broader operating environment is not without its challenges. Fitch notes that the attacks raise risks to the 2026 baseline, which had previously assumed robust non-oil growth driven by the region’s massive pipeline of diversification projects.

    Economic impact

    The conflict has already impacted the real economy. Air travel suspensions, a slowdown in consumer activity and shifting risk perceptions regarding tourism could weigh on non-oil GDP if the tension lingers. Fitch highlighted that the key metric to monitor will be the “strength of operating conditions, particularly non-oil growth and general confidence in the region”.

    The critical variable remains the duration of the conflict. If hostilities are contained within a month – as is the current expectation among analysts – the impact on GCC economic growth is likely to be temporary.

    There are specific regional nuances to watch. While most GCC banks enjoy ample liquidity, those in Qatar and Saudi Arabia have historically faced tighter conditions. “The conflict could make it more challenging for GCC-based entities to issue debt in overseas capital markets. This could particularly increase Saudi banks’ reliance on more expensive domestic markets,” said Fitch. 

    For now, the strategy from both regulators and ratings agencies is one of cautious optimism. The region’s capital expenditure programmes and diversification drives provide a structural momentum that is difficult to derail in the short term.

    Fitch concluded that as long as energy infrastructure remains intact and public spending continues to shore up growth, the GCC’s financial institutions are well-positioned to navigate the crisis.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15875387/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Fitch Ratings sees limited oil price impact of Iran conflict

    5 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf by Iran since 28 February is likely to be temporary given its vital economic role in global oil trade, according to credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.

    This, alongside global oil market oversupply, should limit oil price rises and mitigate any potential disruptions to Iranian oil supply, Fitch Ratings said in a note.

    As a result, the ratings agency does not expect significant upside to its December 2025 assumption of an average Brent oil price of $63 a barrel for 2026.

    “The strait is not formally closed, but vessels are increasingly avoiding it given the risk of attack by Iran or its proxies. Oil majors have halted shipments for safety reasons, and insurers are cancelling war risk cover for vessels. However, we expect this effective closure of the strait to be temporary. It is a vital artery for seaborne oil transportation, with limited alternative routes,” said Angelina Valavina, EMEA head of Natural Resources and Commodities at Fitch Ratings.

    Oil prices rose on 5 March, extending a rally as the ‌escalating US-Israeli war with Iran continued to disrupt supplies, prompting some major producers to cut production and others to take measures to ensure supply security.

    Brent crude was up $2.35, or 2.9%, at $83.75 a barrel at 12pm Gulf Standard Time, a fifth session of gains. US ​West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.42, or 3.2%, to $77.08.

    ALSO READ: Oil prices rise to highest in a year as regional conflict deepens

    “Prior to the conflict, around 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products transited the strait, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of global oil consumption. About half of the oil volumes transported through the strait are exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the remainder from Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. About half of these exports go to China and India.

    “A protracted closure would affect both exporting and importing countries and therefore is not our baseline assumption. If the strait were to remain effectively closed for a protracted period, naval protection for tanker navigation could be considered, as occurred during the 1980s' Iran-Iraq war,” Valavina said in the note from Fitch Ratings.

    “In addition, the global oil market is oversupplied, which should limit the geopolitical risk premium and cap risks to oil price increases. Global supply growth exceeded demand growth in 2025. Fitch expects this trend to continue in 2026. Supply increased by about 3 million b/d in 2025, while demand grew by well below 1 million b/d,” Valavina said.

    “We forecast supply growth of 2.4 million b/d in 2026, with demand growth of about 0.8 million b/d. Half of 2025-26 supply increases come from unaffected non-Opec+ producers. Opec+ spare production capacity is 4.3 million b/d,” she added.

    “In addition, global observed oil inventories rose by 1.3 million b/d in 2025 to reach their highest level since March 2021. Total global inventories stood at 8.2 billion barrels at end-2025. This is sufficient to cover a halt in oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz for over 400 days.

    “Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some infrastructure to bypass the strait, which may mitigate transit disruptions. Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabian Oil Company; A+/Stable) operates the 5 million b/d East–West crude oil pipeline to an export port on the Red Sea. The UAE operates a 1.5 million b/d capacity pipeline linking its oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman with a maximum achieved flow of 1.8 million b/d.

    “While Iran is a sizeable oil producer, producing about 3.5 million b/d and exporting about 2 million b/d, it accounts only for about 3.5% of global crude oil production. This means that potential supply disruption would be offset by global market oversupply.”

    Valavina concluded: “However, the duration and intensity of the increasingly regional conflict remain uncertain. Any protracted blockage of the strait or material and sustained damage to the region’s oil and gas production and transportation infrastructure would materially affect oil markets and likely result in a more material rise in our base case 2026 oil price assumption. Oil price volatility would rise if there were to be any material disruption to Iranian oil production.”

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15872225/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Alec resumes project operations across the UAE

    5 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    UAE-based construction firm Alec has resumed on-site and in-office operations across its UAE projects from 4 March.

    In a statement, the company said that it is working closely with clients to ensure a prompt and safe return to full-scale activity.

    The move follows a temporary work-from-home policy introduced across the company’s UAE operations in response to ongoing events, as Alec Holdings reaffirmed its commitment to protecting its workforce while continuing to deliver in clients’ best interests.

    During the same period, the company said its operations in Saudi Arabia remained fully operational.

    Alec also confirmed it remains on track to hold its first Annual General Assembly meeting post-listing on 24 March, in line with regulatory guidelines.

    Barry Lewis, CEO of Alec Holdings, said the company’s “priority is, and always will be, the safety and security of our workforce”, adding that Alec was grateful to clients for their support.

    “That trust has been built over decades of delivering on our promises, and it is something we value deeply,” he said.

    Lewis added that the company would continue to focus on transparency and close collaboration with clients and partners to maintain safety across sites and offices.

    Lewis also pointed to Alec’s investments in digital collaboration platforms, workforce management systems and enhanced security protocols, describing them as “tried and tested” capabilities that have helped keep projects on track while protecting employees.

    He said the company remained confident in the resilience of its operations and its ability to adapt responsibly as circumstances evolve.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15872176/main3704.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • QatarEnergy issues force majeure to customers

    5 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    QatarEnergy has issued force majeure to customers who have been affected by its decision to stop production and shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products.

    “QatarEnergy values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information,” the state enterprise said in a statement on 4 March.

    QatarEnergy announced its decision to halt production of LNG and associated products on 2 March due to military attacks on the company’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in Qatar.

    The following day, the company said it was stopping output of products in the downstream energy value chain, including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium and other products.

    The state enterprise did not blame Iran for the attacks in either of its statements, but it is understood that its facilities have been hit by drones and/or missiles launched by Tehran, as it retaliates against Israel, the US and their military bases in the GCC states, further escalating the ongoing conflict.

    QatarEnergy currently has a nameplate LNG production capacity of 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y), with all its processing trains and export infrastructure located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, which lies about 90 kilometres to the north of Doha.

    In Mesaieed Industrial City, situated around 45km south of Doha, QatarEnergy operates crude oil refining facilities, including natural gas liquids (NGL) units, as well as petrochemical production complexes and other units in the hydrocarbon value chain.

    ALSO READ: 
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15872121/main0755.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Local firm wins Jeddah stormwater contract

    5 March 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (AWPT) has won a five-year contract from Jeddah Municipality for stormwater network services in the city.

    The contract covers the operation and cleaning of stormwater and surface water networks in the airport’s sub-municipality area of Jeddah, AWPT said in a statement to the Saudi stock exchange.

    Valued at $25m, the contract forms part of ongoing efforts by Saudi municipalities to maintain and upgrade urban stormwater infrastructure as cities expand and face increasing pressure on drainage systems.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Jeddah Municipality awarded two major stormwater infrastructure contracts in 2025.

    The awards covered phases one and two of the King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road (KAFA) tunnel project, each valued at about $175m.

    The contracts were awarded to Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company for the construction of large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels. US-based Aecom is the consultant for the project.

    As MEED previously reported, the contracts for the three-year scheme were initially tendered in 2024.

    In January, AWPT won another contract with state-owned utility National Water Company (NWC) to operate and maintain water assets in Tabuk City.

    The scope of work includes the operation and maintenance of water networks, pump stations, wells, tanks and related facilities over a 36-month period.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15870416/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall