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GCC’s ambitious railway project gains momentum

17 July 2023

 

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The GCC railway project has continued to make progress in 2023. After an official announcement by the GCC secretariat in January 2021 that effectively restarted the project, a string of recent moves and statements have meant all six members of the bloc have either declared or signalled their plans for their sections of the rail network.

In early July, officials from Bahrain's Ministry of Transportation and Telecommunications met with a delegation from the GCC Rail Authority led by Nasser Hamad al-Qahtani and Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Samaani.

The two sides discussed the railway connecting Saudi Arabia and Bahrain across the proposed King Hamad Causeway and reviewed the progress of the new crossing. The meeting also included the exchange of information regarding engineering designs and contact points between the two countries.

The railway crossing the King Hamad Causeway will extend inland by another 21 kilometres into Saudi Arabia and 24km into Bahrain. It is understood the railway route extending inland into Bahrain will eventually link up with the planned GCC railway network.

In November 2019, the Netherlands' KPMG, US-based Aecom and Germany-headquartered CMS were appointed as advisers for the project.

Kuwait advances

The meeting between the two countries follows developments elsewhere in the GCC. In May, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud authorised the minister of transport and logistics services as his representative to discuss a draft agreement with Kuwait regarding a rail link connecting the two countries.

MEED reported in early May that Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) and the Saudi Public Transport Authority had appointed France’s Systra to complete the feasibility study for a high-speed rail link connecting the kingdom and Kuwait.

Bid submission is currently in progress for study and detailed design services for the rolling stock and civil works packages 1 and 2.

Kuwait is also pushing ahead with the Kuwait National Rail Road (KNRR) project. The scheme is seen as a significant component of the country's contribution to the GCC railway. The project owner, Kuwait’s Public Authority for Roads and Land Transportation (Part), through the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp), issued a request for proposals (RFP) in January this year. The original closing date was 21 February and the deadline was then extended to 11 July.

Oman links

Progress is also being made on the railway linking the UAE and Oman. In September 2022, the two countries established Oman-Etihad Rail Company to implement the 303-kilometre network. The project received a further boost after Oman-Etihad Rail Company inked a strategic agreement with Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Investment Company to support its development.

The prequalification process is underway for the UAE Civil Package A, Oman Civil Package B and Oman Civil Package C projects, and is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2023. Contractors based in the UAE, Oman, Turkiye, Greece, India and China have started seeking to qualify for the packages on the $3bn rail connection.

“The prequalification process is currently under way, and we hope to award [the project] on schedule as planned,” said UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, and Oman-Etihad Rail Company chairman of the board of directors, Suhail Mohamed Faraj al-Mazrouei, in an interview with MEED.

Oman-Etihad Rail Company also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Brazilian mining company Vale to explore using rail to transport iron ore and its derivatives between Oman and the UAE. Railways could connect Vale’s industrial complex in Oman’s Sohar Port and Freezone and its planned development, known as a Mega Hub, at Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad).

Oman is also collaborating with Saudi Arabia for the establishment of a railway link connecting Duqm with Riyadh through the Ibri border. The railway line aims to serve the upcoming economic zone that the two countries are planning to build in the Al-Dhahirah area.

Qatar connection

Meanwhile, GCC railway projects have been progressing with renewed impetus following the Al-Ula declaration signed by the six member states in January 2021. Under the declaration, Saudi Arabia and Qatar agreed to restore their diplomatic ties and restart the rail link connecting the two countries.

In July 2021, Systra was selected to conduct a feasibility study on the proposed high-speed rail line connecting Riyadh and Doha, which could use maglev technology. The study works are still ongoing on the project. The railway line could be about 550 kilometres long. As well as maglev, the study will also evaluate using other high-speed rail technologies.

The restoration of diplomatic ties between Qatar and Bahrain in mid-April will improve the prospects of the $4bn Qatar-Bahrain Causeway. In March 2022, Manama called for work to restart on the causeway, which is a key link for the GCC rail network.

Rail authority

GCC leaders approved the establishment of the GCC Rail Authority in January 2022. The company was entrusted with the overall policymaking and coordination among member states to ensure smooth delivery and operations of the overall scheme.

With high project activity levels, governments in spending mode, and the agreements under the Al-Ula declaration, the latest efforts to restart the GCC railway project may make more progress than previous attempts. If the railway is finally completed, it could prove transformative for a region that feels connected to the world but divided between its constituent parts.

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Yasir Iqbal

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    In 2023, power generation projects accounted for an estimated 79% of total contract awards, with T&D projects accounting for the rest.

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    The Middle East’s projects market in 2024 has been fuelled by the same heady cocktail of favourable oil prices, continued investment into oil and gas projects, government infrastructure spending, the energy transition, real estate investment and economic diversification that propelled the total value of awards in 2023 to record levels.

    By the end of October 2024, there were $262bn of contract awards across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects. By the end of the year, the 2024 total may top the $290bn recorded in 2023. 

    While economic diversification is a priority for governments across the region, oil and gas remains a key sector for project awards. The three largest contract awards in 2024 were from the sector.

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    Breaking down the sector into oil and gas separately reveals a telling trend. Oil accounts for 12% of awards, while gas accounts for 20%. These numbers reflect the growing importance of gas as a transition fuel that is cleaner and more environmentally friendly than oil, but still provides the dependable energy that many renewable alternatives still do not offer. 

    Strong performances

    Construction is the second-largest sector after oil and gas, accounting for 23% of awards. Its significance has dropped in 2024 compared to 2023, when it accounted for 32% of contract awards. 

    In terms of value, there were $68bn of contract awards in 2024 until the end of October. If the same pace is maintained during November and December, the 2024 total is expected to be about $81bn, which falls short of the 2023 total of $97bn. 

    While the total value of contract awards may have dropped, there was the largest construction contract award on record in 2024 – a $4.7bn deal secured by Italian contractor WeBuild for the construction of three dams for the Trojena mountain resort at Saudi Arabia’s Neom gigaproject. 

    The power sector accounted for 18% of the total awards during the period, the largest of which was the $5.3bn contract won by Saudi Arabia’s Alfanar Projects and China Electric Power Equipment & Technology Company for the 7,000MW Saudi Central, Western and Southern Regions high-voltage direct current overhead transmission lines project being developed by Saudi Electricity Company.

    When analysed by country, Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominate the market, and together they account for over 60% of contract awards across the region in 2024 up to the end of October. 

    As the region’s largest economy, it is unsurprising that Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest share, with 38.6%, followed by the UAE, which had 22%. The next most significant country was Iran, which came in a distant third with 8% of contract awards. 

    The outsized contribution of Saudi Arabia and the UAE reflects the relative economic stability found in the GCC compared to other countries in the region that are grappling with the impact of conflict and other associated financial pressures. 

    Looking beyond the contract awards numbers, the biggest project announcement in 2024 came in April, when Abu Dhabi investment vehicle ADQ released details of plans to invest $35bn in Egypt. The plans involve ADQ acquiring the development rights for Ras El-Hekma, a planned new city on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coast, for $24bn. 

    The development has been billed as having the potential to attract over $150bn in investment.

    In October, ADQ appointed its subsidiary Modon Holding as the master developer for Ras El-Hekma. Modon will act as the master developer for the entire development, which covers more than 170 square kilometres (sq km). 

    Modon will develop the first phase, which covers 50 sq km, and the remaining 120 sq km will delivered with private developers.

    Key partners for delivering the project have already been found. For construction, Modon has signed a framework agreement with Egyptian firm Orascom Construction to serve as the primary contractor for the project’s first phase. 

    Modon also signed a deal with Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) for developing, financing and operating greenfield utility infrastructure projects, water desalination projects, electricity transmission and distribution projects and wastewater projects at the Ras El-Hekma development.

    While economic diversification is a priority for governments across the region, oil and gas remains a key sector for project awards

    Future prospects

    Looking ahead, the performance of the projects market in 2025 will depend  on the favourable macroeconomic conditions remaining in the GCC, which if the other four members of the six-nation bloc are added, accounted for nearly 72% of the Mena region’s total contract awards during the first 10 months of 2024. 

    The key metric to watch in 2025 will be the oil price. In mid-November, the price of Brent Crude was $72 a barrel, which is below what many in the region, including Saudi Arabia, require if they are to maintain their project spending plans. 

    The outlook for oil prices is uncertain and after oil producers’ group Opec cut its global demand growth forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 for the fourth time, highlighting economic weakness in China, India and other regions, there are concerns prices will dip in 2025. 

    The election of Donald Trump as US president adds to those concerns. He has promised to “drill, baby, drill”, and a sharp uptick in output from the US could cause oil prices to soften further.

    Trump is also a protectionist and has said ‘tariff’ is his favourite word. Most of his new tariffs are expected to be aimed at China, which could mean that Chinese companies look to other markets that remain open to them, including the Middle East.

    The appeal is clear to see. Chinese contractors already command a dominant position in the region – particularly in North Africa and Iraq – and Chinese companies will find great appeal in affluent markets such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which can offer large-scale project opportunities.

    The other metric that will drive the projects market in 2025 is real estate. In the UAE, much of the ongoing development work is supported by the buoyant property market, particularly in Dubai, which has grown strongly throughout 2024. 

    According to a report by data and analytics company Reidin, property sales in the UAE reached AED46.52bn ($12.7bn) in October 2024, marking a 55% year-on-year increase. Demand also remains robust, with 19,500 transactions recorded in October, reflecting a 72% rise compared to the same period in 2023. 

    Looking ahead to 2025, Reidin says that the outlook remains optimistic as sustained demand, rising property values and steady inventory turnover are all expected to continue driving growth. 

    While the forecast supports a positive outlook for construction in the UAE, those who have seen Dubai’s property market collapse before will be keenly watching the data in 2025.

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