meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC shelters from the trade wars

18 April 2025

 

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.

A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.

As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.

Falling prices

For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.

To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war. 

It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk. 

This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.

It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.

Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.

Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.

There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:

  • Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude; 
  • Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
  • Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries; 
  • An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers. 

Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.

Potential upside

With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs. 

This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.

In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations. 

In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs. 

For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.

With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.

Limiting impact

Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.

Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.

A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances. 

With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance. 

Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC. 

Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news. 

Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13720569/main.jpg

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Local firm executing Yasref tail gas treatment project

    14 April 2026

     

    Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company (Yasref) is overseeing progress on a key project to build a tail gas treatment unit (TGTU) at its crude refinery complex, located in Yanbu on the west coast of Saudi Arabia.

    Yasref is a joint venture in which Saudi Aramco owns the majority 62.5% stake and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) owns the other 37.5%. The Yasref refinery was commissioned in 2015 and has a crude oil refining capacity of 400,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    The aim of the project, which Yasref calls the tail gas synergy project, is to significantly reduce emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) from its production complex. The 'synergy' comes from integrating primary treatment (such as the Claus process, which typically recovers about 95-97% of sulphur) with advanced secondary treatment in a TGTU, to achieve overall sulphur recovery of nearly 99.9%.

    Yasref awarded the main contract for the tail gas synergy project to Jeddah-based contractor Carlo Gavazzi Arabia earlier this year, according to information obtained by MEED Projects, with the contract estimated at $80m.

    The local branch of London-headquartered Berkeley Engineering Consultants is acting as the project’s main consultant, according to MEED Projects.

    The scope of work on Yasref’s tail gas synergy project includes the following:

    • Construction of downstream TGTU with catalytic hydrogenation reactor and amine absorber train
    • Modification of existing sulphur recovery units
    • Construction of acid gas removal units employing amine solvent systems
    • Construction of desulphurisation units including carbonyl sulphide hydrolysis
    • Construction of associated utilities and auxiliary infrastructure: thermal exchangers, power and steam supplies, flare knockout drums
    • Installation of safety and security systems hydrogen sulphide detection, overpressure relief, firewater deluge, access control, safety instrumented systems
    • Integration of emission monitoring and process control instrumentation.

    In April last year, Aramco, Sinopec and Yasref signed a venture framework agreement for a potential petrochemicals expansion of the Yasref refinery complex into a major integrated petrochemicals facility. The project would include a large-scale mixed-feed steam cracker with a capacity of 1.8 million tonnes a year (t/y) and a 1.5 million-t/y aromatics complex, along with associated downstream derivatives.

    MEED understands that the Yasref petrochemicals expansion project, which is also referred to as Yasref+, is part of Aramco’s $100bn liquids-to-chemicals programme.

    The central ambition of the strategic programme is to derive greater economic value from every barrel of crude produced in Saudi Arabia by converting 4 million b/d of Aramco’s oil production into high-value petrochemicals and chemicals feedstocks by 2030.

    ALSO READ: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16383830/main3043.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait sets April deadline for $718m drainage tender

    14 April 2026

    Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works has set a 21 April deadline for a major tender estimated to be worth about KD222m ($718m).

    The tender scope covers the construction of rainwater drainage networks across the residential areas of Sabah Al-Ahmad, South Sabah Al-Ahmad, Al-Khairan and Al-Wafra.

    The Ministry of Public Works floated the tender on 22 March.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the works include the construction of a major concrete sewer, three collection basins and extensive stormwater drainage basins.

    Rainwater collection tanks will be connected through an independent network, with outlets to the sea via the Nuwaiseeb exit to manage overflow.

    The infrastructure will also filter pollutants such as oils, minerals and sediments to protect water quality and support environmental sustainability.

    The project aims to reduce surface runoff, prevent street and urban flooding, and improve groundwater recharge.

    UK analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to grow by 5.1% in 2026-29, supported by government investment in the oil and gas sector aimed at raising production, as well as investment in the infrastructure sector.

    In the short term, growth will be boosted by planned expenditure under the 2025-26 budget, which was approved in March 2025.

    The construction industry in Kuwait is expected to record an annual average growth rate of 4.9% in 2026-29, supported by investments in renewable energy, transport, and oil and gas projects.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16383203/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Local firm makes hydrocarbon discovery in Oman’s Block 7

    14 April 2026

    Omani oil and gas exploration and production company Masar Petroleum has announced a discovery in the Hasirah Ridge in the sultanate’s Block 7.

    Masar Petroleum was the inaugural operator to appraise and produce hydrocarbons from the Hasirah reservoir in Block 7 in 2017.

    Building on that experience, Masar Petroleum has now successfully drilled a new exploration well south of its existing discoveries, validating the concept of the Hasirah Ridge — a geological trend 5 kilometres wide and 30km long mapped across Block 7 using 2D seismic data.

    This discovery represents the first step towards unlocking the Ridge’s prospective resource base of 100 million to 380 million barrels, Masar Petroleum said in a statement.

    Following this discovery, a planned 3D seismic survey and exploration and appraisal programme is expected to advance the development of the new resources by the end of 2028.

    First production from this field is expected to come on stream during the last quarter of this year.

    Masar Petroleum plans to rapidly advance appraisal and development opportunities across Block 7.

    “Masar is a proud Omani E&P company that has delivered significant value through a continuous and focused effort on unlocking our potential,” Abdulsattar AlMurshidi, CEO of Masar Petroleum, said.

    ALSO READ: Oman offers five hydrocarbon exploration blocks in new bidding round
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16383075/main2121.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Bidders get more time for Saudi water transmission projects

    14 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Water Transmission Company (WTCO) has extended the bid submission deadlines for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for two major independent water transmission system projects.

    The Jubail-Buraidah and Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca transmission projects were first tendered last September under the public-private partnership model.

    The deadlines for qualified contractors to submit technical and financial bids had initially been extended to March. 

    The new bid submission deadline for the Jubail-Buraidah project is 30 April.

    Scheduled to begin construction in 2027, the scheme comprises an approximately 348-kilometre-long greenfield water transmission system with a capacity of 840,650 cubic metres a day (cm/d), delivering water from the Ashmasiah reservoirs to cities and towns in Al-Qassim province.

    The project is large by WTCO standards. The company’s second phase of the Khobar-Hofuf system, completed in 2024, was 140km in length, with a capacity exceeding 530,000 cm/d. 

    Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca

    For the Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca water transmission system project, the new bid submission deadline is 7 May.

    The project involves constructing an approximately 325km-long greenfield independent water transmission system with a capacity of 542,000 cm/d, delivering water from Ras Mohaisen to the Adham and Aradhiyah regions.

    Prequalification for both projects closed on 15 January.

    It is understood that local firms Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies and Mutlaq Al-Ghowairi Contracting Company (MGC) are among those qualified to bid for the Ras Mohaisen contract.

    MGC secured the EPC contract for an even larger independent water transmission pipeline project in June last year.

    The project, also linking Jubail and Buraidah, spans 587km and carries 650,000 cm/d.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, construction works recently commenced on the project, which is estimated to cost about SR8.5bn ($2.2bn).

    WTCO is also planning to tender a contract for phase two of the Ras Mohaisen water transmission system project. This includes laying water transmission pipelines 408km in length with a capacity of 400,000 cm/d. This project is estimated to cost around $600m.

    It is understood that the main contract tender will be issued in 2027.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16383056/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi firm wins $64.2m steel pipe orders from Aramco

    14 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia-based Arabian Pipes Company has announced it has won orders from Saudi Aramco to supply steel pipes, totalling SR241m ($64.2m).

    Under the terms of the contracts, Arabian Pipes Company will supply steel pipes over contract durations of nine months and 11 months, commencing from the date of signing.

    “These contract awards reinforce Arabian Pipes Company’s strong position as a key supplier to the kingdom’s energy sector and highlight its continued commitment to supporting major oil and gas infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia,” the company said in a filing with the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul), where its shares trade.

    The company added that the orders will contribute positively to its financial performance over the contract period.

    Arabian Pipes Company last secured a contract from Aramco in August 2024, when it won an eleven-month steel pipe supply order worth approximately $28.53m.

    Prior to that, in July 2024, the company won a contract worth SR293m ($78.1m) to supply steel pipes for the second expansion phase of Aramco’s Jafurah unconventional gas development. That contract had a duration of 10 months.

    The order was placed as a subcontract by Denys Arabia, the main contractor performing engineering, procurement and construction works on one of the Jafurah second expansion phase project packages.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16382513/main2830.jpg
    Indrajit Sen