GCC shelters from the trade wars
18 April 2025

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.
A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.
As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.
Falling prices
For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.
To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war.

It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk.
This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.
It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.
Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.
Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.
There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:
- Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude;
- Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
- Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries;
- An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers.
Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.
Potential upside
With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs.
This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.
In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations.
In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs.
For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.
With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.
Limiting impact
Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.
Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.
A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances.
With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance.
Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC.
Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news.
Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.
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Accor expects Dubai hotel recovery by mid-202717 July 2026

Paris-headquartered hotel operator Accor expects Dubai’s hotel market to return to pre-conflict occupancy levels by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with room rates lagging the volume recovery by several months.
Duncan O’Rourke, chief executive for the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific at the hotel operator (pictured right), said the group had maintained profitability across its Dubai portfolio during the conflict period through cost control and revenue management, but acknowledged that rates and occupancy had fallen materially from January and February levels.“There is no question that this crisis affected Dubai,” O’Rourke said at a media briefing in Dubai on 26 June. “As for occupancy in Dubai, we managed – through profit protection and cost control – to keep the hotels in a positive position, so we weren’t losing money.”
He said the arrival of the summer low season provided a degree of relief. “If there is a time to slowly slide out of this crisis, it is the right time, which is now. What I see going forward is that volumes will come back. You will not have the rates immediately that you had in January and February. By the end of Q1 or Q2 next year, I think you will get close to where we were.”
Luxury first
O’Rourke said the luxury and upper-upscale segment was likely to lead the recovery, consistent with the pattern observed after previous crises.
“Generally, when you have a crisis, the first segment to click back quicker is the high-end luxury. People then think: it is not about whether I should go – it is, let’s go. We saw that in Covid. Fairmont is well positioned to do that, and the Sofitel and Maison brands are in the stage of recovery going forward.”
Jean-Jacques Morin, group deputy chief executive at Accor (pictured right), said the UAE’s underperformance had been contained within Accor’s broader international portfolio that continued to grow.“The Middle East is about 10% of the network,” he said. “That also explains why my tone on the capability of the results is so positive – not only do you have the hedging across geographies, but it is also, in the end, only one part of the business.”
Rate outlook
Morin dismissed concerns that the conflict had structurally weakened Dubai’s pricing power, drawing a parallel with the period following Covid-19.
“When we came out of Covid, everybody said those prices would never hold. The question at every analyst call was always the same: your pricing strategy is unsustainable. Guess what? Nothing changed. The prices now, three or four years later, are still the same.”
He argued that consumers consistently prioritise travel expenditure when reallocating budgets. “What you see when the economy goes sideways is that people reallocate disposable income differently. People are basically redirecting the way they do things and keeping the same amount they want to spend, but spending it differently.”
Morin also said Dubai has a track record of outpacing expectations after previous disruptions. “The first part of the world, post-Covid, that came back to positive RevPAR was the Middle East – it was Dubai. People forget that. The capacity of this part of the world to rebound, and the capacity of the industry to rebound in general, is always misunderstood.”
No pullback
Accor said it had not paused or cancelled any development commitments in the region as a result of the conflict. “We did not change anything from a strategic perspective,” Morin said. “The last thing you want is to pull back, because this is going to rebound.”
The group has also used the period to accelerate planned refurbishments and redeploy staff across the region rather than reduce headcount.
“We have 380 hotels here – we are the largest player in the Middle East. Where we accelerated refurbishments, we were able to take key employees and move them to larger hotels elsewhere in the region. What people learned during Covid was the cost of layoffs afterwards – bringing people back and retraining them. There was a massive learning curve. This time, discussions with partners about layoffs were less challenging; it was more about accommodating staffing needs during that period,” O’Rourke said.
READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFStress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions> INDUSTRY REPORT: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery> DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise> LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital changeTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17695301/main.gif -
CCC selected for $600m Damascus Financial Centre17 July 2026
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Syrian developer Souria Holding has selected Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) as the exclusive design-and-build contractor for the $600m Damascus Financial Centre (DFC) in Syria.
The two parties signed a memorandum of understanding on 6 July. The agreement covers design management, engineering, procurement, construction, testing and commissioning, handover and defects liability services. Souria Holding chairman Haytham Joud and CCC chairman Samer Khoury signed the agreement.
Souria Holding is developing the project in partnership with the Governorate of Damascus. The developer says the scheme is intended to support the city's long-term economic revitalisation and urban development.
The mixed-use development sits on Plot 47 in the Western Hejaz regulatory area of Damascus' Baramkeh district. The site covers about 32,000 square metres (sq m) and the development will have about 380,000 sq m of built-up area, making it one of the largest mixed-use schemes planned in Syria.
The DFC comprises a five-star hotel, including furnished apartments and serviced apartments; two residential towers; three grade-A office towers on a core-and-shell basis; retail and commercial space at ground and underground levels; and four basement levels for parking and supporting infrastructure.
The first phase of construction involves the delivery of three office buildings with a total above-ground built-up area of 72,000 sq m. The completion deadline is the fourth quarter of 2028.
Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah is the frontrunner for the design consultancy role, working for CCC as the design-and-build contractor.
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GCC downstream operators urged to seek used European equipment17 July 2026

The operators of downstream oil and gas facilities in the GCC that are rebuilding after attacks during the regional war are being advised by the insurance industry to procure used equipment from Europe, where a large number of petrochemical facilities have closed down over recent years.
A wide range of refineries and petrochemical plants in the region are currently undertaking repairs and replacing damaged equipment after attacks by Iran.
The attacks started after the US and Israel launched attacks on sites in Iran on 28 February.
Nick Holland, the head of engineering for India, the Middle East and Africa at the US-based insurance broker Marsh, says that many downstream facilities carrying out repairs in the GCC could cut costs and reduce the time it takes to rebuild by making deals with companies in Europe.
“Many plants have shut down in Europe over the past five years,” he says. “These refinery and chemical-plant closures may create an opportunity for Gulf operators to acquire high-quality used equipment.
“We have some incredible demand in the Middle East to recover as quickly as possible, and I would certainly be encouraging operators to take the opportunity to procure second-hand equipment from facilities that have closed down in Europe.”
Earlier this month, Jim Ratcliffe, the chairman of the London-headquartered chemicals company Ineos, wrote an open letter to Ursula Von Der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, saying that the chemical industry in Europe is “highly stressed” and in the midst of a “closure phase”.
He said that nearly 200 European chemical plants had closed down during the past five years.
Holland says that companies in the GCC looking to minimise business disruption and rebuild as quickly as possible should reach out to companies in Europe to obtain equipment that would normally take a long time to procure from equipment manufacturers.
“A new large high-pressure reactor could have a lead time of approximately 110 weeks, so adapting an existing reactor could significantly accelerate recovery,” he says.
“Other possible items include pumps, compressors, rotating equipment and boilers.
“Reusing equipment is unusual but not unprecedented. Used equipment would require inspection, remaining-life assessment, re-engineering and confirmation that it is fit for the new operating conditions.”
Over recent months, there have been reports of downstream oil facilities being hit by Iranian attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain.
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Medina tenders Quba Mosque expansion17 July 2026

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Madinah Region Development Authority (MRDA) has tendered a contract to expand Quba Mosque in the Medina region of Saudi Arabia.
The tender was issued earlier this month, with a bid submission deadline of 31 August.
MRDA has appointed local consulting firm Jasara as the project management consultant.
Jasara, in turn, has appointed London-based firm HKA to provide specialist procurement and delivery-model advice and to support the selection of a suitable contracting partner for the project.
Dar Al-Omran has prepared the design for the expansion.
Quba Mosque is located about five kilometres south of the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina.
Project background
Quba Mosque is considered the first mosque established in Islam, in 622 AD. The proposed expansion will increase the mosque’s area from 5,035 square metres (sq m) to 53,000 sq m and raise capacity to 66,000 worshippers, from 12,000.
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Bahrain taps consultants for studying use of nuclear power17 July 2026

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Bahrain is exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption as well as for potential export of surplus, with state energy conglomerate Bapco Energies tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant.
According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.
Under the plan being studied, power to be produced by the nuclear facility will be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the kingdom, such as Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Bapco Refining, for clean production of aluminium and refined products, respectively, in line with Bahrain’s ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
BeVentures has, in turn, approached global consultancy firms such as Bechtel, Fluor, Kent, Technip Energies and Wood to assist with concept study and early-stage planning and assessment of the modular or small nuclear power project.
Bapco Energies and BeVentures are also considering tapping into private financing and/or equity partnerships, in part or in full, for the proposed project, sources told MEED.
Bapco Energies did not respond to MEED’s request for comment and additional information on the proposed modular nuclear project.
Mark Thomas, the group CEO of Bapco Energies, told MEED in an interview in April last year that BeVentures was considering investments in “ … new technologies that can both help existing business, as well as prepare … for the future, for the energy transition”.
“We’re looking at opportunities principally within our existing businesses around oil and gas production, refining and petrochemicals. But we’re also looking at elements that will prepare us for the future, more into renewables,” Thomas said, without explicitly mentioning nuclear power.
Case for nuclear power
Bahrain’s interest in exploring nuclear power has been driven primarily by the limitations of its hydrocarbon endowment. Given its small territorial size – about 786 square kilometres – Bahrain holds relatively modest hydrocarbon reserves compared with its Gulf peers.
The kingdom produces about 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, of which the Awali Field, also known as the Bahrain Field, contributes approximately 42,400 b/d.
Most of Bahrain’s crude production – about 145,000 b/d – comes from the offshore Abu Safah field, located in Gulf waters between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and shared between Bapco Energies’ subsidiary Bapco Upstream and Saudi Aramco.
Bapco Energies has long pursued additional resources to boost oil and gas output. However, the discovery of the Khalij Al-Bahrain basin in 2018 – its biggest find in decades – has yet to live up to its promise. Initially estimated to hold 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the find has not translated into production at the anticipated scale. Other, smaller exploration efforts with foreign players have also yet to yield the desired results.
The kingdom therefore remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas supplies, importing about 350,000 b/d from Aramco via the AB-4 pipeline.
At the same time, given its environmental sustainability targets, other forms of renewable energy – mainly solar – are unlikely on their own to enable Bahrain to reach net zero by 2060.
Bapco Energies published emissions-reduction targets in July 2023, in one of the most detailed disclosures by any state energy enterprise in the GCC. It has also engaged advisers including Boston Consulting Group to help devise a strategy to meet its environmental goals, and Standard Chartered to support financing requirements.
Using 2017 as a baseline year, Bapco Energies has committed to reducing absolute Scope 3 emissions in Bahrain by 30% by 2035, and to reaching net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2060.
In addition, Bapco Energies sets out net emissions-intensity reduction targets for Scope 1 and 2 – also using 2017 as a baseline – of 15% by 2025, 25% by 2030, 30% by 2035, 50% by 2040 and 75% by 2050, with the aim of achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2060.
Bahrain has been laying the groundwork to enable it to tap nuclear power for household and industrial needs in the future.
The kingdom is already operating under a Country Programme Framework (2024–29) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which establishes regulatory and safety benchmarks that must be in place before any commercial reactor construction begins.
In July last year, Manama also signed a civilian nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding with the US. Financed under the US Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) programme, the partnership provides Bahrain with technical support to develop secure, weaponisation-free civil nuclear infrastructure.
Small modular reactor (SMR) technology could be the most viable pathway forward for Bapco Energies in its quest to develop domestic nuclear power. Unlike conventional large-scale, capital-intensive gigawatt reactors, SMR units – typically under 300MW – require only a fraction of the land area needed for solar capacity of an equivalent output.
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