meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC shelters from the trade wars

18 April 2025

 

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.

A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.

As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.

Falling prices

For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.

To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war. 

It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk. 

This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.

It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.

Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.

Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.

There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:

  • Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude; 
  • Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
  • Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries; 
  • An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers. 

Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.

Potential upside

With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs. 

This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.

In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations. 

In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs. 

For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.

With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.

Limiting impact

Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.

Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.

A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances. 

With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance. 

Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC. 

Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news. 

Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13720569/main.jpg

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai real estate buys time

    17 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The outbreak of the Iran-US-Israel war has injected a powerful dose of uncertainty into Dubai’s residential real estate market, a sector already bracing for a cyclical cooldown.

    A new report from S&P Global Ratings, published on 16 March, outlines the parameters of the risk.

    The core argument is that while Dubai is not facing an immediate 2008-style collapse, the market’s resilience is now a function of time. If the conflict intensifies beyond a one-month horizon, the strains on prices, investor confidence and developer balance sheets could become severe.

    Momentum stalls as caution takes hold

    The most immediate impact of the conflict has been psychological. According to S&P, official sources are already reporting lower transaction volumes since the war began. The prolonged war could mark the end of the post-pandemic boom, shifting the market into a phase of guarded caution.

    The luxury segment, which has driven much of the recent growth, is seen as the most vulnerable. High-net-worth individuals who relocated to Dubai for its perceived safety and tax advantages may now reconsider their positions, given that the city’s ‘safe haven’ status is being tested.

    S&P’s baseline forecast assumes the most intense phase of fighting will last up to four weeks. Under this scenario, the market will likely experience a slowdown in both volumes and prices, with the declines being more pronounced the longer the uncertainty drags on.

    The report notes a flight to liquidity, predicting that secondary market transactions will become more prevalent as investors seek to offload properties, further suppressing values.

    Apartments are expected to suffer steeper price drops than villas due to a robust supply pipeline.

    Regulatory shields and the threat of a prolonged conflict

    One of the central tenets of the report is that Dubai’s post-2008 regulatory framework provides a crucial buffer. Escrow accounts and stringent payment plans mean that for projects already under way, developers should be able to complete construction, barring a wave of mass investor defaults.

    The rules offer significant protection: developers can retain up to 40% of the property value if construction is on schedule, refund the remainder, and repossess the unit for resale.

    However, this protection has limits. S&P warns that a prolonged war scenario would test these regulations. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supply chains for construction materials could bottleneck, driving up input costs. More critically, the rules that protect developers would only be effective up to a point.

    In a deep and lasting downturn, project cancellations would become likely, particularly for newly launched developments that have not secured substantial presales.

    The analysis suggests that while top-tier developers weathered past downturns with delinquency rates of just 3-10%, the figure for newer, less experienced players could be much higher.

    Rated developers have headroom, but it is not infinite

    The four major developers rated by S&P with exposure to Dubai are Emaar Properties, Damac Properties, PNC Investments and Omniyat Holdings. All of these players enter the period of uncertainty from a position of relative strength.

    The report highlights that years of strong sales have created significant revenue backlogs covering several years.

    Emaar leads with the revenue backlog of about $37bn, equivalent to 2.7 years, while Damac holds about $22bn of backlog, representing 2.3 years.

    Their leverage is low, and cash positions are meaningful. As of 31 December 2025, Emaar held $7.5bn in cash and liquid investments, with $11.7bn as escrow cash balance.

    Damac holds $1.7bn in total cash, including $6bn in escrow, while PNCI and Omniyat hold more modest balances of $600m and $600m, respectively.

    S&P has built “substantial headroom” into their credit ratings to absorb sudden shocks.

    The liquidity assessments for all four companies are adequate, with manageable debt maturities in 2026.

    The critical question is duration. If the conflict grinds on, the buffers will narrow.

    S&P states that in a prolonged scenario, its reassessment will focus on construction progress, cash collection and working capital.

    The financial policies of management teams, specifically their willingness to maintain low leverage and cut dividends, will be key to preserving creditworthiness.

    Capex and dividends under review

    The war will also force a recalibration of corporate strategy. The report notes that investment decisions are likely to be postponed or cancelled. While commitments for projects nearing completion will proceed, companies will prioritise liquidity over new land purchases.

    This is most pronounced for Emaar, which has sizeable capital expenditure plans of AED10bn-AED11bn ($2.7bn-$3bn) annually in 2026-27 for projects such as Dubai Creek Tower, Dubai Creek Mall and the expansion of Dubai Mall. S&P believes a significant portion of this spending is flexible and can be delayed if needed.

    Dividend policies will also be tested. The report expects dividend distributions to remain substantial but potentially adjustable. 

    S&P’s analysis paints a picture of a market that is braced for impact but not yet broken. The fundamentals are stronger than they were in 2008, thanks to tighter regulations and well-capitalised developers with $10bn in combined cash reserves.

    However, the market’s fate is now externally determined. If the conflict remains contained and short-lived, Dubai’s real estate sector should absorb the shock with manageable declines.

    But if the war becomes a protracted regional crisis, the meaningful correction that S&P flags as a possibility will move from the realm of the theoretical to the probable, testing the resilience of both the developers and the regulatory framework designed to protect them.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16012971/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Energy pushes back deadlines for power projects

    17 March 2026

    Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company (SEC), has extended bid submission deadlines for three substation projects in Riyadh Province.

    The utility has pushed back the deadline for the estimated $50m King Khalid International airport 132/13.8kV substation project to 9 April.

    The contract was originally tendered in December, and the deadline had previously been extended to 9 March.

    Local firms Al-Babtain Contracting and Al-Haider are understood to have prequalified to bid for the scheme. 

    The company has also extended the deadline for a $40m engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a 132kV underground cable project in Al-Kharj, Riyadh Province.

    The new bid submission date is 26 March.

    The project covers the installation of underground cable circuits linking a proposed substation (S/S #8721) north of Al-Kharj to BSP #9028. The scope also includes associated civil works and infrastructure.

    Prequalified bidders include Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, Al-Babtain Contracting and Al-Haider, according to regional project tracker MEED Projects.

    In addition, the utility has extended the deadline for a $50m contract to replace the existing 132/13.8kV substation (S/S #8044) with the new Al-Sharafiyah-2 substation (S/S #8407) in Riyadh.

    The revised submission date is 9 April.

    The scope includes construction of the new substation, installation of switchgear and conductors, and associated infrastructure works.

    Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, Al-Babtain Contracting and Al-Haider are expected to submit bids for the project.

    Riyadh Expo substations

    Separately, Saudi Energy is understood to be moving forward with procurement for a project to develop three 132/13.8kV substations in Riyadh to support Expo 2030.

    The utility is said to have invited bids for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to deliver the three substations along with associated works to connect the facilities to the national grid.

    The project forms part of wider infrastructure preparations for Expo 2030 Riyadh, scheduled to take place from October 2030 to March 2031

    No bid submission deadline has been publicly disclosed.

    Last September, Saudi Energy outlined plans to invest $58.7bn in power projects between 2025 and 2030.

    This includes $36bn and $22.7bn for transmission and distribution, respectively, and is part of long-term plans to meet growing electricity demand while improving grid efficiency and reliability.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16012147/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Fujairah oil hub targeted in fresh drone strike

    17 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) was hit by another drone attack early on 17 March, causing a fire, authorities in Fujairah said.

    No injuries have been reported in the attack, and the emirate’s civil defence teams are dealing with the situation and trying to control the fire, the official Emirates News Agency (Wam) reported, citing the media office of the Government of Fujairah.

    This is understood to be the fifth attack since the start of March that FOIZ has suffered from drone or debris resulting from interceptions by the UAE’s air defence systems, as Iran continues to hit energy and industrial facilities in the UAE.

    Fujairah benefits from its strategic geopolitical location outside the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blockaded in its ongoing conflict with Israel and the US, choking about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

    Consequently, oil prices have soared since the start of the conflict on 28 February. Global benchmark Brent broke the $100 mark on 9 March, for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, rising to a high of $119 a barrel on that day. Prices have dropped since, but it is still trading well above the $100 mark, with Brent recorded at $103.87 a barrel as of 12pm GST on 17 March.

    Major midstream oil and gas companies operate key storage and export hubs for oil and refined products in Fujairah, including Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), Saudi Aramco – through its subsidiary Aramco Trading – Vopak Horizon, VTTI, Shell, Fujairah Oil Terminal, Brooge Petroleum & Gas Investment Company (BPGIC), Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc), Ecomar, Mount Row and GPS Chemoil.

    ALSO READ: Iran sees economic pressure as key to ending war

    Fujairah is crucial to the operations of Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Onshore, which operates a main oil terminal (MOT) there. Located approximately 300 kilometres north of Abu Dhabi, the terminal facilitates the import and export of various crude oil grades, particularly Murban, from the company’s onshore and offshore fields.

    Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop) connects milestone pole (MP) 21 at the Habshan oil facility in Abu Dhabi, where stabilised crude produced from Adnoc Onshore fields is gathered for dispatch, to the Fujairah MOT.

    BPGIC is an oil storage and services firm that was established in 2013 in Fujairah and started operations with a capacity of 400,000 cubic metres spanning 14 tanks. In March 2022, it announced its intention to increase the storage capacity of four of those storage tanks in the first phase complex.

    Separately, in September 2021, BPGIC began operations at the second phase of its Fujairah oil storage complex, adding 600,000 cubic metres of storage capacity across eight tanks. As a result of that expansion, BPGIC’s storage capacity more than doubled to 1 million cubic metres, or 6.3 million barrels, from 400,000 cubic metres.

    BPGIC then undertook a third expansion phase of its oil storage facility, which is understood to have been commissioned in 2023.

    The third phase increased BPGIC’s oil storage capacity by 3.5 times, raising it to 3.5 million cubic metres, or 22 million barrels, and making the firm the largest oil storage services provider in the UAE emirate of Fujairah.

    The third-phase expansion project consists of an oil storage facility with a capacity of 2.5 million cubic metres, a modular 25,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) refinery, and a larger 180,000-b/d conventional refinery.

    BPGIC also co-owns a topping refinery in Fujairah with Nigeria-based Sahara Energy Resources, which produces low-sulphur bunker fuel for ships and vessels. It is understood that the new naphtha upgradation unit could be integrated with the existing topping refinery unit.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16011988/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman signs $2bn real estate deals at Mipim 2026

    17 March 2026

    Oman has signed 17 international investment and development agreements worth over RO762m ($1.98bn) at the Mipim 2026 event held in Cannes, France.

    The deals were concluded through the Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning (MHUP) and partners at the Oman pavilion, and span mixed-use real estate, healthcare, agri-investment and digital planning tools.

    A key agreement was a memorandum of understanding with Turkiye’s Artas Holding for the Al-Khuwair Downtown project, with planned investments exceeding RO150m ($390m).

    In Sultan Haitham City, an agreement was signed with Saudi Arabia’s Retal Development to develop neighbourhoods 3, 15 and 17, covering more than 1.39 million square metres, with a combined investment of over RO320m ($832m).

    Other agreements include Vogue Homes Portugal investing more than RO25m ($65m) in the Al-Thuraya City project, and another residential scheme led by international firms including Avant Garde Properties, F&M International, Metrogramma and The One Atelier, with an investment of about RO50m ($130m).

    MoHUP also signed agreements covering smart planning and project delivery, including advanced 3D digital modelling, with investment exceeding RO408,000 ($1m).

    Healthcare-related agreements include a partnership between local Al-Daham Real Estate and Kubba to develop hospital and stem-cell treatment facilities, valued at RO11.5m ($30m), and a deal between local firm Al-Abrar Real Estate Group and Vienna Hospital & University to operate Ibn Al-Haitham Hospital in Sultan Haitham City, with an investment of more than RO40m ($104m).

    In Dhofar, investments will be made in planting one million olive trees under a usufruct arrangement, valued at RO15m ($39m), as part of agriculture sustainability plans.

    The programme also includes architectural and branding collaborations involving international firms such as Chapman Taylor Architects, 3DTouch Studio, Hawk & Impact Communication and Atelier Entropic, alongside luxury brands including Pagani, Armani and Elie Saab for branded residential concepts.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16011061/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Ashghal tenders northern Smaisma infrastructure

    17 March 2026

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has issued a tender covering infrastructure development in the northern Smaisma area.

    The tender was floated on 14 March, with a bid submission closing date of 12 May.

    The scope includes the airstrip road, coastal road and connections to the existing Al-Khor Expressway, spanning an area of about 18.5 kilometres.

    The contract duration is four years from the start of construction works.

    The latest tender follows Ashghal’s announcement of contract awards for 12 new projects, with a total value exceeding QR4.5bn ($1.2bn).

    According to a notice published on its website, these include six building projects, most notably the redevelopment of Hamad General Hospital, with a contract value of about QR1.1bn ($301m).

    The other projects awarded include the construction of a post office building in Al-Thumama, the renovation of the Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club and the Qatar Equestrian Federation, as well as the implementation of phase four of the Al-Uqda Equestrian Complex development.

    In the roads and infrastructure sector, four projects have been awarded, led by packages one and two of the road and infrastructure development works in Izghawa and Al-Thumaid.

    The awards also include a project covering landscaping and an air-conditioned walkway at Qatar University, as part of broader public facilities improvement initiatives.

    According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, Qatar’s construction industry is expected to expand by 4.3% in 2026, supported by investments in renewable energy and transportation infrastructure.

    According to the Planning & Statistics Authority, Qatar’s construction value-add grew by 6.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. 

    GlobalData expects the industry to grow at an annual average growth rate of 4.6% in 2027-29, supported by investments in construction, energy and infrastructure projects.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16010960/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal