GCC shelters from the trade wars
18 April 2025
The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.
A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.
As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.
Falling prices
For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.
To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war.
It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk.
This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.
It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.
Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.
Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.
There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:
- Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude;
- Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
- Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries;
- An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers.
Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.
Potential upside
With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs.
This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.
In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations.
In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs.
For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.
With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.
Limiting impact
Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.
Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.
A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances.
With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance.
Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC.
Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news.
Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.
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Siemens Energy signs preliminary 14GW Iraq pact
9 May 2025
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Germany’s Siemens Energy and Iraq’s Electricity Ministry have signed a preliminary agreement to add 14GW of electricity generation capacity to Iraq’s grid.
The firms also signed two long-term service contracts for the Dibis and Al-Mussaib gas-fired power plants.
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Abu Dhabi hopes bigger is better with Disney theme park
8 May 2025
Commentary
Colin Foreman
EditorEver since Aldar Properties first launched the Yas Island project with its Yas Marina Circuit for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in 2006, Abu Dhabi has been steadily adding theme parks to the island’s roster of attractions. First, there was the Ferrari theme park, then came a water park, a Warner Bros theme park and, most recently, SeaWorld.
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Miral has developed a series of theme parks and other entertainment-related attractions on Yas Island
Enter Disney
Disney changes that. It is the largest brand in the theme park space and will be a major attraction, but with limited information released on the project so far, it is difficult to fully gauge how significant the project will be.
The official release said that the project will be developed and operated by Abu Dhabi developer Miral, adding that Disney’s in-house design and engineering unit, Walt Disney Imagineering, will lead creative design and operational oversight to provide a world-class experience. It did not give any details on the ownership of the project.
In Hong Kong, for example, a company, Hong Kong International Theme Parks, was established as a joint venture, with the Government of Hong Kong holding 57% and The Walt Disney Company holding 43%.
In Japan, the structure is different. The Tokyo Disney Resort is owned and operated by Oriental Land, and the company pays licences and royalties to The Walt Disney Company.
In interviews following the launch announcement, Miral CEO Mohamed Abdalla Al-Zaabi confirmed the arrangement will be like Tokyo.
Waterfront location
The official release for the Abu Dhabi launch also said that the project is on Yas Island, which only has limited areas of land to develop. The release also said that the land is waterfront, and imagery in the launch video shows the Abu Dhabi skyline in the background, suggesting the land is on the northern waterfront of Yas Island.
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Exclusivity clause
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Tourism gateway
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If that potential is realised, then the bigger is better theory will be proved right. If the park’s performance disappoints, then it will suggest the region is not such a great destination for theme parks after all.
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Firms bag $850m Qatar substation contracts
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Photo credit: Kahramaa
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OQ to take interest in Oman renewable projects
8 May 2025
OQ Alternative Energy (OQAE), part of Oman’s state-backed energy group OQ, will be taking shares in Oman’s renewable energy independent power projects (IPP), starting with the Ibri 3 solar scheme.
“The direction seems to be for OQ Alternative Energy to own up to 25% shares in the upcoming solar and wind IPP projects in the sultanate,” says a source familiar with the plans.
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With this policy change, Oman will now be more closely aligned with the existing project structure in the UAE, where either Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) or the state utility, Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa), owns stakes in these projects.
However, OQAE’s planned 25% ownership share will be slightly lower than the typical 40% to 60% shares that Taqa, Masdar or Dewa owns in the UAE’s renewable energy IPP projects.
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