meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC shelters from the trade wars

18 April 2025

 

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.

A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.

As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.

Falling prices

For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.

To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war. 

It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk. 

This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.

It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.

Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.

Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.

There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:

  • Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude; 
  • Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
  • Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries; 
  • An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers. 

Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.

Potential upside

With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs. 

This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.

In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations. 

In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs. 

For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.

With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.

Limiting impact

Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.

Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.

A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances. 

With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance. 

Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC. 

Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news. 

Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13720569/main.jpg

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors submit bids for Saudi gas processing plant project

    8 May 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted bids to Saudi Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company (AGOC) for a project to build an onshore gas processing plant in Saudi Arabia’s Khafji that will draw and process gas from the Dorra offshore gas field, located in waters of the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    MEED previously reported that AGOC had divided the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) on the Khafji gas plant project into seven packages, and issued the main tenders for those last year.

    Contractors were initially set deadlines of 24 October for technical bid submissions and 9 November for commercial bids. AGOC later extended the bid submission deadline to 22 December, and then until 22 April. A final deadline of 30 April was set, with contractors submitting bids by that date, according to sources.

    The seven EPC packages cover works including open-art and licensed process facilities, pipelines, industrial support infrastructure, site preparation, overhead transmission lines, power supply systems and main operational and administrative buildings, with their breakdown as follows:

    • Package 1 – Open-art facilities
    • Package 2 – Licensed facilities
    • Package 3 – Industrial support facilities
    • Package 4 – Pipelines
    • Package 5 – Site preparation
    • Package 6 – Overhead transmission lines plus power supply (from Saudi Electricity Company)
    • Package 7 – Headquarters complex

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been pressing ahead with their plan to jointly produce 1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas from the Dorra gas field.

    The two countries have been producing oil from the Neutral Zone – primarily from the onshore Wafra field and offshore Khafji field – since at least the 1950s. With a growing need to increase natural gas production, they have been working to exploit the Dorra offshore field, understood to be the only gas field in the Neutral Zone.

    Discovered in 1965, the Dorra gas field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic metres of gas and 310 million barrels of oil.

    The Khafji gas plant project is one of three multibillion-dollar projects launched by subsidiaries of Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) to produce and process gas from the Dorra field that has advanced in recent months.

    Dorra field facilities project

    Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO), which is jointly owned by AGOC and KPC subsidiary Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC), has divided the scope of work on the Dorra field facilities project into four EPC packages – three offshore and one onshore.

    India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) won the contract for package one of the Dorra facilities project, which covers the EPC of seven offshore jackets and the laying of intra-field pipelines. The contract awarded by KJO to L&TEH is estimated to be valued at $140m-$150m, MEED reported in October.

    Additionally, Italian, Indian and Spanish contractors have emerged as the lowest bidders for the other three EPC packages that form part of the Dorra facilities project.

    A consortium of Italian contractor Saipem and L&TEH is understood to have submitted the lowest bid for offshore packages 2A and 2B, according to sources. The only other consortium understood to have submitted bids for packages 2A and 2B comprises Abu Dhabi-based NMDC Energy and South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries.

    The EPC scope of work for package 2A includes Dorra gas field wellhead topsides, flowlines and umbilicals. Package 2B involves the central gathering platform complex, export pipelines and cables.

    Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas is understood to have emerged as the lowest bidder for onshore package three, sources told MEED. Package three covers the EPC of onshore gas processing facilities.

    KGOC onshore processing facilities

    The third component of the overall Dorra gas field development programme is a planned onshore gas processing facility to be built in Kuwait, which has been undertaken by KGOC.

    KGOC had been progressing with the front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the project, before the destabilising impact of the US-Israel conflict with Iran compelled the operator to put the project on hold, MEED reported in April.

    The proposed facility, estimated to be worth $3.3bn, will receive gas from a pipeline from the Dorra offshore field, which is being separately developed by KJO. The complex will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cf/d of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra field.

    The facility will be located near the Al-Zour refinery, owned by another KPC subsidiary, Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company.

    A 700,000-square-metre plot has been allocated next to the Al-Zour refinery for the gas processing facility and discussions regarding survey work are ongoing. The site could require shoring, backfilling and dewatering.

    The onshore gas processing plant will also supply surplus gas to KPC’s upstream business, Kuwait Oil Company, for possible injection into its oil fields.

    Additionally, KGOC plans to award licensed technology contracts to US-based Honeywell UOP and Shell subsidiary Shell Catalysts & Technologies for the plant’s acid gas removal unit and sulphur recovery unit, respectively.

    France-based Technip Energies has carried out a concept study and feed work on the entire Dorra gas field development programme.

    Progress has been hampered by a dispute over ownership of the Dorra gas field. Iran, which refers to the field as Arash, claims it partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia maintain that the field lies entirely within their jointly administered Neutral Zone – also known as the Divided Zone – and that Iran has no legal basis for its claim.

    In February 2024, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reiterated their claim to the Dorra field in a joint statement issued during an official meeting in Riyadh between Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud.

    Since that show of strength and unity, projects to produce and process gas from the Dorra field have gained momentum.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16734353/main5834.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Teams prepare bids for Riyadh East sewage treatment plant

    8 May 2026

     

    At least six consortiums are preparing to submit bids for Saudi Arabia's Riyadh East independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) project, according to sources.

    The project will be developed under a build‑own‑operate‑transfer model with a 25‑year concession term.

    The plant will have a treatment capacity of 200,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) in its first phase, expanding to 500,000 cm/d in the second phase.

    MEED understands that the following consortiums are in discussions to submit bids for the project, which has a recently extended bid submission deadline of 30 June:

    • Suez (France) / Civil Works Company (Saudi Arabia) / Alwael (Saudi Arabia)
    • Saur (France) / Samsung E&A (South Korea) / Al-Bawani (Saudi Arabia) / Nesma (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alkhorayef (Saudi Arabia) / GS Inima (Spain)
    • EtihadWE (UAE) / Metito (UAE)
    • Veolia (France) / AlJomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • Miahona (Saudi Arabia) / Marafiq  (Saudi Arabia)

    In December 2025, a group comprising Metito, EtihadWE and SkyBridge was selected as the preferred bidder for the Hadda ISTP project. Miahona, Marafiq Company and Buhur for Investment was selected as the reserved bidder.

    That same month, the Miahona-led consortium was selected as preferred bidder for the Arana ISTP and the Metito-led consortium was selected as the reserved bidder. Both projects have yet to reach financial close.

    The Riyadh East, Hadda and Arana ISTPs are being undertaken by state water offtaker Sharakat, formerly Saudi Water Partnership Company, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP.

    In 2024, Sharakat prequalified 53 companies that could bid for the Riyadh East ISTP, part of seven planned ISTP projects it said it would procure between 2024 and 2026. The request for proposals was issued last October. 

    WSP is the technical adviser and KPMG Middle East is the lead and financial adviser on the project.

    The targeted commercial operation date for the facility is 2029.

    ISTP plans

    According to Sharakat’s recent seven-year statement, it has identified six additional large ISTPs in the development pipeline.

    These are:

    • Kharj (75,000 cm/d)
    • Abu Arish (50,000 cm/d)
    • Hafar Al-Batin (100,000 cm/d)
    • Riyadh North (TBD)
    • Najran South (50,000 cm/d)
    • Khamis Mushait (50,000 cm/d)

    The company is also pursuing a nationwide small sewage treatment plant programme covering about 139 smaller ISTPs grouped into seven clusters.

    These are designed to add about 521,450 cm/d of additional treatment capacity across the kingdom.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16734156/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia tenders Jeddah-Mecca highway PPP

    8 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Roads General Authority (RGA) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have tendered the contract for the development of the Jeddah-Mecca highway project.

    The tender was issued on 19 April, with a bid submission deadline of 19 August.

    The scope of the tender is split into two sections: development of motor service areas (MSA) and highway services. 

    Under the MSA component, the company will develop, permit, finance, design, engineer, procure, construct, complete, test, commission, insure, operate and maintain three MSAs along the highway.

    The contract term is 25 years, including two years of the construction period.

    Each MSA plot will cover 34,500 square metres and will include facilities such as fuel stations, electric vehicle charging, truck services, tyre and oil change, car wash and repair, retail and food outlets, ATMs, restrooms, mosques, parking, landscaping and other associated utilities.

    The highway services component will include insurance, operation and maintenance of highway assets for 10 years.

    The 64-kilometre (km) Jeddah-Mecca highway has four lanes in each direction. The construction works on 51km are complete, while the rest is under construction and scheduled for completion in 2027.

    In March, the RGA and NCP prequalified three bidders to develop the project. These were:

    • Algihaz Holding / ICA Construction (local/Turkiye)
    • Lamar Holding / Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation (Bahrain/China)
    • Mada International Holding (local)

    The expression of interest notice for the project was first issued in October 2024, as MEED reported.

    The project is one of four planned highway schemes in the kingdom’s privatisation and public-private partnership (P&PPP) pipeline.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16731199/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • US sanctions Iraq’s deputy oil minister

    8 May 2026

    The US has sanctioned Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, in another blow for the country’s oil and gas sector.

    In a statement released by the US Treasury, it said that he “abuses his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq”.

    The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) has also designated three senior leaders of the militias Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. 

    In its statement, it said that the US will continue to hold these groups and other militias in Iraq, such as Kata’ib Hizballah, accountable for their attacks against US personnel and civilians, diplomatic facilities and businesses across Iraq.

    Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, said: “Like a rogue gang, the Iranian regime is pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people.”

    He added: “Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran's military exploits Iraqi oil to fund terrorism against the United States and our partners.”

    Ofac said that it designated Iraq’s deputy minister of oil on 7 May because he had been “instrumental in facilitating the diversion of Iraqi oil products to benefit known Iran-affiliated oil smuggler Salim Ahmed Said, as well as Iran-backed terrorist militia Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH)”.

    It added: “For years, Maarij has used his official positions, first as the head of the Iraqi parliament’s oil and gas committee, and then within the Iraq Ministry of Oil, to enrich Said, AAH, and by extension, Iran.”

    The US Treasury said that it designated Said in June 2025 for running a network of companies selling Iranian oil falsely declared as Iraqi oil to avoid sanctions.

    In its statement, it said: “Integral to this operation was Said’s ability to obtain favoured access to Iraqi oil and procure forged documentation from Iraqi government officials, legitimising illicit oil.

    “To that end, Said was responsible for bribing complicit officials in the Iraqi government, as well as reportedly installing Maarij in his official position.”

    Since 2018, Maarij has held several positions in Iraq’s Oil Ministry, including head of the licensing and contracts office, deputy minister, and acting oil minister. 

    The US Treasury said that, in his official capacities, Maarij enabled Said to illicitly procure oil products by granting exportation rights to Said’s companies. 

    It claimed that Maarij authorised trucking several million dollars’ worth of oil a day from the Qayarah oil field to VS Oil Terminal in Khor Zubayr for export.

    The US sanctioned VS Oil Terminal in July last year.

    The US Treasury said that VS Oil oversaw the mixing of Iranian oil with Iraqi oil before being shipped to market. 

    It also said that Maarij is also responsible for falsifying documentation on the provenance of oil for Said’s network, enabling it to be smuggled to market disguised as purely Iraqi oil.

    Neither Iraq nor Iran has responded to the announcement of the new sanctions.

    The sanctions were announced as the US and Iran battle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen significant disruption to shipping since the US and Israel started their war with Iran on 28 February 2026.

    Iraq’s oil and gas sector is currently going through a crisis due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the country’s oil exports to collapse.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16729987/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Sabic registers profit in first quarter of 2026

    8 May 2026

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profit in the first quarter of 2026, posting a net income of SR13.2m ($3.52m) compared to a SR1.21bn loss a year earlier. 

    The Saudi petrochemicals ​giant posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of SR4.15bn for the three months to 31 March, up 25% from the previous quarter.

    The company’s revenue fell 6% quarter-on-quarter to SR26.15bn ($6.97m).

    Adjusted net income was recorded in at SR816m, compared to a loss in the previous quarter, while adjusted earnings per share stood at SR0.27.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose to SR1.45bn, an increase of SR1.01bn from the prior quarter.

    Sabic said its net position shifted to a debt of SR2.77bn at the end of March, from a net cash position of SR3.61bn at the end of 2025.

    “Our transformation journey continues to deliver performance improvements that unlock greater value for our shareholders. We realised $220m at the Ebitda level on a recurring basis during the first quarter of 2026, in line with our planned improvement rate. This keeps us on track towards our cumulative 2030 annual target of $3bn, consisting of $1.4bn in cost excellence and $1.6bn in value creation,” Sabic CEO Faisal Alfaqeer said.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16719476/main1840.jpg
    Indrajit Sen