Meed | GCC shelters from the trade wars

GCC shelters from the trade wars

18 April 2025

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.

A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.

As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.

Falling prices

For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.

To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war.

It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk.

This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.

It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.

Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.

Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.

There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:

Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude;
Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries;
An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers.

Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.

Potential upside

With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs.

This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.

In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations.

In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs.

For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.

With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.

Limiting impact

Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.

Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.

A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances.

With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance.

Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC.

Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news.

Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.

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Exclusive from Meed

Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
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Contractor wins $105m Medina university hospital deal
22 September 2026
Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
22 September 2026
Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
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Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises
21 September 2026

Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
22 September 2026

Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco) has outlined plans for the next phase of expansion at King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) in Jeddah.

The programme comprises six upcoming contractor packages spanning airside works, terminal upgrades and utilities as Jedco advances its long-term expansion plans.

The opportunities include airfield rehabilitation; a five-year construction framework covering multiple workstreams and facility types; a Terminal 3A (T3A) package; Terminal 1 (T1) optimisation; a fuel farm; and Concourse C works.

The packages cover terminal buildings and ancillary facilities, runways, taxiways and aprons, hangars, fuel systems, airside facilities, supporting infrastructure and utility networks.

Tendering and award activity will be staggered over the next two years. Airfield rehabilitation is targeted for Q3 2026. The construction framework is scheduled for Q4 2026 and will run for five years.

The T3A package is planned for Q1 2027 and will be delivered under an early contractor involvement contract. Local contractors are encouraged to bid as part of a joint venture with an experienced international partner.

T1 optimisation is planned for Q4 2027, the fuel farm for Q2 2027, and Concourse C – currently the latest of the six milestones – for Q2 2028.

The new packages add detail to Jedco’s wider expansion plans disclosed in 2023, when it was reported that the company would invest SR115bn ($31bn) to increase KAIA’s capacity to 114 million passengers a year, with an overall completion target of 2031.

Jedco has recently awarded several significant contracts linked to the airport’s upgrade programme.

In November 2024, a joint venture of local Algihaz Contracting and Turkey’s TAV was awarded a contract to rehabilitate the South Terminal to serve Umrah and Hajj pilgrims, with Singapore’s Surbana Jurong acting as consultant.

Earlier that year, Jedco also awarded France’s Alstom a contract to increase the capacity of the Innovia automated people mover at Terminal 1, including new cars and upgrades to signalling, communications and controls.

Surbana Jurong is expected to play a leading role in future KAIA expansion plans and is currently providing technical advisory and project management consultancy for more than 100 capital projects for Jedco, valued at over SR6bn ($1.6bn).

These upgrades are expected to boost KAIA’s annual capacity in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

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Yasir Iqbal

Contractor wins $105m Medina university hospital deal

22 September 2026

Riyadh-based construction firm Al-Mansouria General Contracting Company has been awarded a SR396m ($105.6m) contract to complete the remaining construction works on the Taiba University Hospital project in Medina.

The contract scope includes structural completion, remaining civil works, mechanical, electrical and plumbing installations, specialised clinical fit-outs and medical gas infrastructure to bring the long-stalled facility into operation.

Located on King Khalid Road along Medina’s Third Ring Road, the teaching hospital will have a capacity of 563 beds.

The contract duration is three years, with delivery targeted for late 2029.

The latest award follows a prolonged procurement cycle that began more than a decade ago as part of a public budget drive to expand Saudi Arabia’s higher education infrastructure.

The project’s first phase was initially signed in December 2011 with local firm Al-Muhaidib Contracting under a SR500m ($133.3m) contract.

Groundbreaking for the eight-storey complex took place in July 2013. The project covers a gross floor area of more than 200,000 square metres.

Progress stalled shortly thereafter due to reported structural delays and the reallocation of public capital budgets across the kingdom’s social infrastructure pipeline.

READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

> MARKET FOCUS: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire

> INDUSTRY REPORT: Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

> INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

> TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
22 September 2026

Oman’s Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn) has tendered an estimated RO15m ($39m) contract to develop infrastructure for Thumrait Industrial City.

The tender was issued on 14 September, with bids due by 12 November.

The scope covers site-wide utilities and services, including an internal road network, stormwater channels and culverts. It also includes installing sewerage and water networks, along with landscaping works.

In addition, Madayn intends to build plug-and-play industrial units and a facilities building.

The first phase of the development will cover about 120,000 square metres (sq m).

Thumrait Industrial City is located in Oman’s Dhofar Governorate and spans an area of more than four million sq m.

The project location is close to concession blocks, quarry sites and the Najd agricultural areas. It is positioned to attract industrial investments in sectors such as mining and minerals processing (including gypsum and cement), food production, and a range of light and general manufacturing activities.

In March, Madayn said it is preparing to invest more than RO245m ($637m) to upgrade and expand infrastructure across its industrial cities between 2026 and 2030, as part of efforts to attract new investment and advance economic diversification.

According to media reports, Madayn chief executive Dawood Bin Salim Al-Hadabi said the programme is part of an expanded, phased plan aligned with Oman Vision 2040 and the authority’s long-term Madayn 2040 strategy.

The objective is to deepen Oman’s industrial base and spread growth across the sultanate’s governorates.

Madayn said the pipeline comprises about 90 strategic projects to improve industrial-city infrastructure, extend serviced land and increase the overall ease of doing business for investors.

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Yasir Iqbal
Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
22 September 2026
State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has reduced the number of approved contractors for onshore drilling and shallow-well maintenance from 51 to 24.

Firms that are no longer qualified include major contractors such as Italy’s Saipem, Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne and Houston-based Patterson-UTI Energy.

The latest list still includes a wide range of Kuwaiti, regional and international companies, according to the latest update on its electronic system, published on 21 September 2026.

The full list of contractors that are now qualified to participate in tenders is:
- Burgan Company for Well Drilling, Trading & Maintenance (Kuwait)
- Kuwait Drilling Company (Kuwait)
- Sun Drilling Kuwait (Kuwait)
- TDL Kuwait for Oil Rigs & Natural Gas Extraction Activities, Services and Facilities (Kuwait)
- United Precision Drilling (Kuwait)
- Abraj Energy Services (Oman)
- Adnoc Drilling Company (UAE)
- Arabian Drilling Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Anton Oilfield Services (China)
- China Oilfield Services (China)
- Egyptian Drilling Company (Egypt)
- CNPC Bohai Drilling Engineering Company (China)
- Great Wall Drilling Company (China)
- John Energy (India)
- Kerui Oilfield Service (China)
- KCA Deutag Drilling (Germany)
- Mohammed Al-Barwani Petroleum Services (Oman)
- Nabors Drilling International (US)
- National Drilling & Services Company (Oman)
- Sea & Land Drilling Contractors (Oman)
- Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation (China)
- Karamay Jianye Energy (China)
- Modern Drilling Company (Egypt)
- Grey Wolf Drilling International (US)
An earlier list, which was published on 11 February, included 51 qualified companies.

The reduction in qualified drilling contractors follows KOC’s notice on 27 April this year, informing existing qualified contractors that they would need to reapply.
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Wil Crisp

Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises

21 September 2026

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Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) expects carbon emissions from power and water production to fall by more than 45% by 2035 as the UAE expands renewable energy and reverse osmosis (RO) desalination.

The state offtaker's latest long-term system planning forecasts emissions will decline from about 42 million tonnes in 2019 to approximately 23 million tonnes in 2035.

The reduction is expected despite annual electricity demand that is forecast to rise by about 70% in 2026-33.

Ewec said the expansion of renewable energy and the shift towards RO desalination will be the principal drivers of the reduction.

The company plans to increase Abu Dhabi's solar capacity to 14GW by 2030 and more than 35GW by 2035. This will be supported by up to 15GW of battery storage capacity.

According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Ewec has over $16bn-worth of power and water projects in the execution stage as part of its long-term procurement programme to increase renewable energy and low-carbon water production capacity.

This includes a 5.2GW Abu Dhabi solar and battery energy storage system (bess) round-the-clock renewable energy project, as well as three 1.5GW solar photovoltaic independent power projects (IPP): Al-Ajban, Al-Khazna and Al-Zarraf.

It also comprises the 1GW Al-Dhafra open-cycle gas turbine power plant, the 2.5GW Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant and a separate 400MW bess IPP.

As previously reported, it is expected that the developer's agreement for the 3.3GW Al-Nouf 1 CCGT IPP will be signed by the end of the year, while contractors are preparing to submit bids for a separate 2.6GW power plant project in Ajman.

The expansion of solar and battery storage is expected to reduce the system's reliance on gas-fired generation. However, gas-fired generation will continue to provide flexibility to support the system and balance intermittent renewable power output, according to Ewec.

The offtaker also expects RO desalination to account for more than 95% of total water production by 2035, with the procurement programme supporting the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy's Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035 for electricity production and the UAE Net Zero by 2050 Strategy.