meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC shelters from the trade wars

18 April 2025

 

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.

A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.

As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.

Falling prices

For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.

To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war. 

It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk. 

This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.

It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.

Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.

Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.

There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:

  • Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude; 
  • Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
  • Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries; 
  • An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.

TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers. 

Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.

Potential upside

With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs. 

This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.

In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations. 

In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs. 

For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.

With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.

Limiting impact

Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.

Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.

A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances. 

With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance. 

Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC. 

Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news. 

Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13720569/main.jpg

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • KBR re-evaluates design for Libya oil project

    10 July 2026

     

    US-headquartered KBR is responsible for re-evaluating the front-end engineering and design (feed) for the project to develop the J6 North Gialo field in Libya, according to industry sources.

    In June, MEED reported that Libya’s Waha Oil Company (WOC), a subsidiary of the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), had launched a review into the tender process for the J6 North Gialo oil field development project, and that this would include re-evaluating the feed work.

    The Waha concessions are held by a consortium of Libya’s NOC, which holds 59.16%; TotalEnergies, holding 20.42%; and US-based ConocoPhillips, with 20.42%.

    They are operated by WOC, which is 100% owned by NOC.

    KBR has previously provided engineering services for major national projects in Libya, such as the Great Man-Made River project, which is widely recognised as the largest irrigation project in the world.

    In March, KBR was awarded a contract by Zallaf Exploration, Production & Refining of Oil & Gas Company to provide project management and technical services for the South Refinery project in Libya’s southern city of Ubari.

    Under the terms of the contract, KBR will provide contract management, project management and supporting technical services throughout the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) phases of the project.

    The EPC work is expected to be executed over a 50-month period.

    In its statement, KBR said that the project is aligned with its “long-standing commitment to advancing vital oil and gas infrastructure in Libya”.

    In March, MEED reported that South Korea’s Daewoo had pulled out of the tender process for Libya’s J6 North Gialo oil field development project.

    Daewoo had formed a partnership with Egypt’s Petrojet to participate in the tender process.

    The only other company to submit a bid for the project was UK-based Petrofac, which filed for administration in October last year.

    In January, TotalEnergies signed an agreement extending the Waha concessions agreement up to 31 December 2050.

    This agreement set new fiscal terms, allowing an increase in the production of these concessions that were, at the time, producing about 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d).

    In January, TotalEnergies said that the deal paved the way for “a new phase of investments, including the development of the North Gialo field, which is expected to add 100,000 boe/d of production”.

    The J6 North Gialo project is the first of three field development projects that WOC has prioritised.

    The other two are known as NC98 and Gialo 3.

    Together, the three projects are expected to double Waha’s production from about 300,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil to 600,000 b/d.

    The Waha concession covers 13 million acres.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17621475/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Qiddiya to tender high-speed rail in September

    10 July 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, are expected to float the tender in September for the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    MEED understands that the clarification process is ongoing for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF), as well as the public-private partnership (PPP) packages.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will cover 84 kilometres, connecting King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District with Qiddiya City.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that the clients had received prequalification statements from firms for the EPCF package of the project.

    MEED also reported in May that firms were forming joint ventures for the PPP package of the project.

    The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    There are five stations planned: Qiddiya Grand Central Station, Qiddiya Uptown Station, King Abdullah Financial District, Terminal 6 King Salman International airport (KSIA) and Iconic Terminal at KSIA.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17621301/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Middle East construction cost inflation to hit 5.1% by 2027

    9 July 2026

    Construction cost inflation in the Middle East is forecast to reach 5.1% in 2027, the second-highest of any region worldwide, as global demand for data centres tightens contractor capacity and deepens shortages of skilled labour.

    The projection comes from the Global Construction Market Intelligence report, published by UK programme manager Turner & Townsend. The report draws on data from 112 markets across 44 countries, gathered between 2 March and 20 March 2026.

    Only Africa is expected to see steeper cost escalation, at 7%. Australia and New Zealand follow the Middle East at 4.9%, while the EU records the lowest figure at 2.8%. Globally, construction cost inflation is set to rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026 before flattening in 2027.

    The report identifies a two-speed market. Data centres are now the most in-demand construction sector globally, followed by industrial and logistics. More than 70% of the 112 markets surveyed report tightening or overstretched contractor capacity in the data centre sector. By contrast, more than 79% of markets show balanced or spare capacity across hospitality and leisure, residential and commercial development.

    Skills shortage

    Labour availability has displaced material costs as the primary driver of cost escalation. About 71% of markets report labour shortages. Skills deficits are most acute in mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) trades, with 87% of markets reporting MEP shortages. These trades are central to data centre delivery.

    The findings carry weight for the GCC, where sovereign programmes in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are competing for the same contractor pools that artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure now draws on. Regional governments have announced large data centre commitments alongside gigaprojects, housing and transport schemes, placing further strain on an already stretched supply chain.

    Turner & Townsend says that construction input costs have stabilised over the past year, with supply chain resilience built since the pandemic limiting the impact of recent volatility. Cost drivers are becoming more localised and sector-specific rather than the product of international shocks.

    Energy market exposure introduces a separate risk. The report cites oil prices, higher transport and freight costs, and volatility in petrochemicals inputs as significant challenges. Disruption to shipping routes lengthens lead times and adds supply chain volatility.

    Conflict assumptions

    The baseline scenario assumes a relatively short-lived conflict in the Middle East and a moderate rise in energy commodity prices in 2026. A prolonged or escalating conflict would produce more pronounced effects on inflation, supply chains and construction costs.

    New York remains the world's most expensive construction market at $7,938 a square metre, followed by San Francisco at $7,883 and Geneva at $6,985. London ranks fifth at $6,032.

    North America carries the highest regional labour costs, with an average hourly wage of $79.5, ahead of the EU at $75.6 and Australia and New Zealand at $68.

    Digital adoption remains uneven, though momentum is building. Sixty-six percent of markets report that AI capability now carries more weight in tendering and client discussions than it did 12 months ago.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17606750/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Contractor appointed for Dubai’s One B Tower

    9 July 2026

     

    Dubai-based construction firm Naresco Contracting has been awarded a contract to build One B Tower, located on Dubai's Sheikh Zayed Road.

    Local real estate developer Wasl Group awarded the contract.

    It covers a 47-storey high-rise tower offering a mix of one- to four-bedroom residential units.

    The project is also known as One Billion Meals Endowment Tower.

    The enabling works were undertaken by local firm APCC Building Contracting.

    Netherlands-headquartered UN Studio is the project architect.

    Dubai-based firm Studio International Engineering Consultants is the project consultant.

    The project is slated for completion by 2028.

    This is the second major contract to have been awarded by Wasl Group this year for a residential development.

    In January, the firm awarded an estimated $250m deal to build the Avenue Park Towers project in Dubai to South Korean contractor Ssangyong Engineering & Construction.

    The development comprises two mixed-use buildings offering residential and commercial facilities. One of the towers will have 43 floors while the other will have 37.

    The project is slated for completion by 2028.

    Wasl Group's latest contract award in the UAE market is backed by heightened real estate activity in the construction sector, with schemes worth over $323bn in the execution or planning stages, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The company forecasts that output from the UAE’s residential construction sector will grow by 3% in real terms in 2026-29, supported by infrastructure, energy and utilities developments, as well as residential construction projects.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17605135/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iran and US break peace deal and resume Gulf attacks

    9 July 2026

    Iran and the US have once again traded attacks in the Gulf region, in the worst exchange of fire since the two nations signed an interim peace deal in June.

    US Central Command (CentCom) said on 7 July that it had launched strikes in response to attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting more than 80 targets including air defence systems, coastal radar and fast boats.

    In retaliatory attacks on 8 July, Iran said it had targeted US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

    Oil prices have spiked following the strikes, with global benchmark Brent crude trading at $77.32 a barrel as of 1pm Gulf Standard Time.

    UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said a tanker travelling through the strait had reported a fire after an unknown projectile hit an engine room on 6 July.

    In two separate incidents on 7 July, a tanker reported it had been hit as it exited the strait but was able to proceed to its next port of call, while another tanker reported sustaining minor structural damage after being struck, UKMTO said.

    Qatar and Saudi Arabia have denounced the attacks, each saying a tanker from its country had been hit while transiting in or near the strait, and blaming Iran.

    A spokesperson for Qatar's foreign ministry, Majed Al-Ansari, said it held Iran fully responsible for an apparently targeted attack on a vessel called Al-Rekayyat as it transited near the Strait of Hormuz.

    Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said Iran had targeted the Saudi tanker Wedyan as it crossed the strait. The owner of the very large crude carrier, the kingdom’s national shipping company Bahri, confirmed the attack on the vessel in a statement on 7 July, adding that “all crew members are safe and accounted for, and the cargo remains secure”.

    “The vessel remains in a seaworthy condition. The company promptly informed all relevant authorities and continues to work closely with them and other maritime stakeholders, while maintaining continuous communication with the vessel's crew and closely monitoring the situation,” Bahri said.

    “Bahri continues to closely monitor developments in the region and has implemented appropriate precautionary measures to support the safety of its people, vessels and operations,” it added.

    Breakdown of peace deal

    Separately, the US also said it had revoked its temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iran's speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the US of breaching their memorandum of understanding (MoU) on this issue, and others, including the attacks in southern Iran and "violating Iranian adjustments in the strait".

    Missiles and drones were launched at "85 key US military facilities", including a US Navy headquarters and an air base in Kuwait, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said.

    Iranian state media agency Irna also reported the death of an IRGC guard in the US strikes, “after being struck by shrapnel from a projectile".

    Kuwait has responded to the Iranian strikes on its country, lambasting the "repeated attacks".

    Talks on reaching a permanent peace deal have been on hold due to the state funeral in Iran for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on 28 February – the first day of US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

    Early on 7 July, Iran's deputy foreign minister described the US attacks as a violation of the US-Iran MoU signed on 14 June, and warned Tehran would "take decisive measures".

    The US had said there would be consequences for what it called the "wholly unacceptable" attacks on the three tankers.

    CentCom said that in addition to 60 small boats, it had struck Iranian missile launch sites and command centres. It did not give the locations of its targets.

    It said the strikes were "to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent individuals in an international waterway".

    Before the strikes, the US Treasury revoked a waiver that had temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Iran and was part of the MoU signed by Washington and Tehran in June.

    Iran's foreign ministry called the move a breach of the MoU and said it proved the "bad faith, inconsistency and unreliability" of the US government.

    It added that Tehran "will take whatever measures it considers necessary to safeguard its national interests and national security".

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17605530/main5658.jpg
    Indrajit Sen