GCC shelters from the trade wars
18 April 2025
The ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs that US President Donald Trump announced on 2 April have plunged global markets into turmoil, with many previously bullish investors turning bearish as a large swathe of reciprocal tariffs were announced.
A week later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the new tariff regime for most trading partners except China, which received an increased tariff rate of 145%, which was then increased to 245%.
As global stock markets suffered some of their worst days on record, for the GCC, the main mechanism of transmission of economic pain came through the negative oil price shock. Brent crude prices dropped by about 16% and dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.
Falling prices
For TS Lombard’s general base case, the negative impact of weaker oil demand is offset by more constructive aspects, which highlight the region’s resilience as it is relatively sheltered from the direct effects of Trump’s tariffs compared to most other emerging markets.
To focus on the negatives first, oil prices have taken a significant hit, dropping to lows unseen since before the Russia-Ukraine war.
It has been generally accepted that during the period from 2022 to February 2025, there was a $70 a barrel price floor for oil, supported by reduced Opec+ production in 2023 and 2024, coupled with geopolitical risk premium resulting from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
The geopolitical narrative began to untangle in 2024, and then completely unravel in 2025, as markets no longer price in any real oil shock risk.
This story has been exacerbated in 2025 with a twofold blow in early April: Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, and Opec+ announced plans to raise production even further, from an increase of 114,000 barrels a day (b/d) to 411,000 b/d by May, which shocked the oil market.
It is key to note that non-oil expansion depends on crude prices to finance growth, rather than for oil’s contribution to GDP. In Saudi Arabia, for example, non-oil GDP grows at about 2% when oil is below the $60 a barrel range, versus 4.7% on average above $80 a barrel.
Low oil prices become a concern when discussing GCC government budget balances. Economic diversification and oil decoupling plans have required high levels of capital expenditure, as the region begins to brace for a future of less oil dependency – though the deadline for this remains at least 10 years away.
Although GCC markets have decoupled from oil, overall funding and spending in the GCC remains driven by oil revenues. This can be seen with the breakeven oil prices for GCC countries.
There is a wide range of fiscal breakeven points within the GCC, with states such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia suffering the most from drops in oil revenues. Despite these variations, the outlook for oil can be summarised in four points:
- Opec+ policy creates excess supply, coupled with weak global – and namely Chinese – demand on crude;
- Pricing out of geopolitical risk;
- Tariff policy creates global uncertainty, especially in energy-intensive industries;
- An Opec decision on production numbers will hinge on the outcome of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
TS Lombard does not expect oil prices to fall much further. It would not be in Trump’s favour to depress oil prices too far, as it would result in too much pain for US shale producers.
Trump wants lower energy inputs; a positive supply-side factor; and to showcase a win from his campaign pledges, many of which have yet to materialise. Nonetheless, the base case for oil remains bearish this year relative to the past two years, although TS Lombard is not overly negative on expectations about current price equilibrium in the $60-$70 a barrel range.
Potential upside
With markets remaining in a tumultuous state, and while questions are being asked about trade deals and the re-implementation of tariffs, it is key to note that oil, energy and various petrochemicals products have been exempt from US tariffs.
This means that, for a volatile and demand-dependent market, oil may see some upside towards the end of this year, as markets begin to price in tariff risk and supply-side disruption.
In terms of non-oil exports from the GCC to the US, with the exception of aluminium, little has changed from pre-Liberation Day operations.
In 2024, the US enjoyed a trade surplus with the GCC in general. For example, 91% of Saudi exports to the US in January 2025 were crude or crude-based products such as ethylene, propylene polymers, fertilisers, some plastics products, and rubber – most of which are exempt from tariffs.
For the UAE, 80% of exports to the US were similarly exempt, including supplying the US with 8% of its total aluminium demand. Significantly, Canada and China are the main aluminium exporters to the US.
With China and Canada also being major targets for Trump, countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will maintain a competitive advantage in selling to the US market, despite facing either the 10% baseline tariff, or the specific 25% aluminium tariff. The best case scenario is that both these GCC states are able to negotiate a trade deal that could exempt or curb the negative tariff effect on their aluminium exports.
Limiting impact
Although several industries have already suffered – as petrochemicals in general has suffered because of the drop in demand and oversupply in the market – the GCC finds itself in a unique position. Its economies are geared to being market- and trade-friendly, and they have low regulatory barriers, large amounts of space and energy to engage in manufacturing-intensive activities.
Coupled with strong relations with the Trump administration, the GCC has both an economic and geopolitical opportunity to act as a global intermediary. It has already been announced that Trump’s first foreign visits will be to the region, and today major global negotiations – from ceasefires to investment mandates – take place in the GCC.
A common argument being made regarding the latest output decision by Opec+ is that it is a geopolitical ploy to appease Trump’s pursuit of lower energy prices and gain favourable negotiating positions for the GCC states. Items on this docket range from civilian nuclear and drone programmes through to the approach to Iran and the Gaza-Israel question.
Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP remains high, showing the resilience of the kingdom when facing economic headwinds. Specifically, the kingdom has kept up its streak of strong non-oil purchasing managers’ index performances.
With the GCC exhibiting stable conditions as the world moves towards uncertainty and erecting trade barriers, the region’s overall competitiveness could be enhanced. This is especially true in the case of the real economy, where investments still have a mostly local rather than international reliance.
Overall, the short-term story relates to oil – and namely to the capital flows that oil brings, which fund economic diversification expenditures in the GCC.
Although lower oil prices are a key detractor for the region, the story is far from being all bad news.
Improved geopolitical relations and opportunities arising from the positioning of the GCC states allows them to exploit emerging gaps in markets that were previously dominated by economies that have been targeted with tariffs.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
Jordan sets market briefing for Amman water PPP10 April 2026
-
-
Masdar’s move abroad will not be the last10 April 2026
-
Turkish firm launches Mecca villas project10 April 2026
-
Kuwait gives bidders more time for Al-Khairan IWPP10 April 2026
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Jordan sets market briefing for Amman water PPP
10 April 2026
Jordan’s Ministry of Investment, through its Public-Private Partnership Unit (PPPU), has announced a public information session for the South Amman non-revenue water (NRW) reduction PPP project.
The session will be held on 15 April and is being organised in collaboration with the Ministry of Water & Irrigation and Miyahuna, according to a notice published by the PPPU.
The project covers the southern and southeastern areas of Amman and aims to reduce water losses and improve the efficiency of the capital’s distribution network.
According to the ministry, the scheme will serve about 1.4 million people across 17 zones and forms part of Jordan’s wider National Water Strategy.
The planned market briefing is intended to provide early detail on the project’s PPP structure, procurement pathway and performance-based contracting model.
It is also expected to outline the project’s risk allocation and bankability framework to prospective investors, operators and infrastructure companies.
The Ministry of Investment opened prequalification for the scheme in March.
Qualified companies and consortiums have been invited to participate in a two-stage procurement process for the performance-based contract.
The project aims to reduce NRW levels to 25% by 2040, while modernising and expanding the existing network using smart technologies and advanced leak detection systems.
The original deadline was 23 April. That has since been extended to 12 May.
Jordan is among the most water-scarce countries in the world, and losses from distribution networks are estimated to account for about 45% of water supplied.
The country is also advancing its $6bn Aqaba-Amman water desalination and conveyance project that aims to meet about 40% of Jordan’s municipal water demand by 2040.
As MEED recently reported, the project is nearing financial close. Once complete, it will supply about 300 million cubic metres of potable water a year from the Red Sea to Amman and other regions.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16340931/main.jpg -
OQ allows more time for natural gas liquids project proposals
10 April 2026
Omani state energy conglomerate OQ Group has allowed contractors more time to prepare proposals for a major project to build a natural gas liquids (NGL) facility in the sultanate.
The planned NGL facility will extract condensates in Saih Nihayda in central Oman and transport those volumes to Duqm, located along the sultanate’s Arabian Sea coastline, for fractionation and export, OQ Group has said.
OQ Group intends to deliver the project using a front-end engineering and design (feed)-to-engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) competition model.
The state enterprise issued the main tender for the feed-to-EPC competition “earlier in March”, setting an initial deadline of 8 April for contractors to submit proposals, MEED previously reported. The deadline has now been extended to 6 May, according to sources.
MEED previously reported that OQ had started the prequalification process for the feed-to-EPC contest for the planned NGL project in November last year, with contractors submitting responses by 15 December.
The following contractors, among others, are understood to have been invited to participate in the feed-to-EPC contest for OQ’s planned NGL project, sources told MEED:
- Chiyoda (Japan) / CTCI (Taiwan)
- G S Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
- Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea) / KBR (US)
- JGC Corporation (Japan)
- Kent (UAE)
- Petrofac (UK)
- Saipem (Italy)
- Samsung E&A (South Korea) / Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Wood (UAE)
- Technip Energies (France)
- Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
- Tecnimont (Italy)
The scope of work on the project covers the development, verification and integration of feed deliverables for the following facilities and systems:
- NGL extraction facility – Saih Nihayda:
- Verification and updating of the existing feed to enable dual-mode operation (ethane recovery and ethane rejection).
- Identification and implementation of required process, equipment, utilities, and control system modifications.
- NGL Pipeline – Saih Nihayda to Duqm:
Feed for a new approximately 230km NGL transmission pipeline, including routing, hydraulics, stations, pigging facilities, metering, corrosion protection, leak detection, and safety systems.
- Fractionation unit at Duqm:
- Feed for a new fractionation facility to process ethane and propane + NGL and recover propane, butane, condensate, and provision for future ethane recovery.
- Design accommodating licensed or open-art technology and future tie-in to a planned petrochemical project in Duqm.
- Product pipelines, storage and export facilities at Duqm jetty:
- Feed for product pipelines, cryogenic and atmospheric storage tanks, vapour recovery systems, marine loading arms, and export facilities.
- Integration with existing port and refinery infrastructure, where feasible.
- Supporting systems and studies:
Utilities, offsites, flare systems, safety and environmental studies, cost estimates (class 2+10%), project schedules, constructability assessments, and EPC tender documentation.
Natural gas liquids projects
Gulf national oil companies have been allocating significant capital expenditure to building or expanding NGL production facilities.
QatarEnergy, in September last year, awarded the main EPC contract for its project to add a fifth NGL train at its fractionation complex in Qatar’s Mesaieed Industrial City. The aim of the project, which is estimated to be worth $2.5bn, is to build a fifth NGL train (NGL-5) with the capacity to process up to 350 million cubic feet a day of rich associated gas from QatarEnergy’s offshore and onshore oil fields.
The main EPC contract for the QatarEnergy NGL-5 project was won by a consortium of India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbons Onshore and Greece-headquartered Consolidated Contractors Group.
Separately, the gas processing business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Gas) has also selected the main contractor for a project to install a fifth NGL fractionation train at its Ruwais gas processing facility in Abu Dhabi.
The fifth NGL fractionation train will have an output capacity of 22,000 tonnes a day, or about 8 million tonnes a year.
The Ruwais NGL Train 5 project represents the second phase of Adnoc Gas’ ambitious Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme, and its budget value is estimated to be around $4bn, Peter Van Driel, Adnoc Gas’ chief financial officer, confirmed in February. The company expects to achieve final investment decision on the project within the first quarter of 2026, Van Driel said at the time.
ALSO READ: PDO awards Oman gas plant expansion project
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16340039/main5958.jpg -
Masdar’s move abroad will not be the last
10 April 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorMasdar’s new joint-venture agreement with France’s TotalEnergies will not be the last time we see regional energy investors use strong balance sheets and domestic growth to build larger positions overseas.
For Masdar in particular, the deal broadens its international exposure at a time when investors are asking questions about the Middle East’s geopolitical risk.
By combining portfolios, the two companies start with 3GW of operational capacity and another 6GW in advanced development.
The deal covers nine Asian countries, reflecting a prudent strategy that spreads capital across markets with different risk profiles and growth trajectories.
In Kazakhstan, which already includes 2.6GW of assets under development, there is clear logic behind this move.
The country is expected to see a significant increase in renewable generation over the next decade, supported by strong wind resources and the availability of large land areas for utility-scale developments.
There is also a practical advantage in partnering with TotalEnergies, which already has project delivery experience and an established presence in several of these markets.
The US-Iran ceasefire announced on 8 April has brought some respite to energy infrastructure stakeholders in the region.
For investors and developers, however, the long-term uncertainty remains. Until there is clear evidence of regime change, the removal of sanctions or lasting peace in the region, the outlook will be less clear.
With uncertainty one of the biggest killers of investor confidence, many will now be looking at this agreement and thinking whether they should also follow suit.
READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFEconomic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA: Gulf economies under fire> GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift> MARKET FOCUS: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift> QATAR LNG: Qatar’s new $8bn investment heats up global LNG race> LEADERSHIP: Shaping the future of passenger rail in the Middle EastTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16340038/main.jpg -
Turkish firm launches Mecca villas project
10 April 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Turkish real estate investment firm Emlak Konut has announced the launch of Hayat Makkah, its first development in Saudi Arabia.
The project is part of the National Housing Company’s (NHC) wider Mecca Gate masterplan.
According to the company, Hayat Makkah will feature 1,014 villas, with home sizes ranging from 150 to 5,000 square metres.
NHC and Emlak Konut signed an investment agreement worth over SR1bn ($266m) in November last year to develop the project.
The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the Cityscape Global 2025 event in Riyadh.
Ertan Keles, chairman of Emlak Konut, said the firm is in talks with stakeholders about launching a second project, while a third development is also being lined up in Jeddah.
GlobalData expects the Saudi Arabian construction industry to grow by 3.6% in real terms in 2026, supported by an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) and investments in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
The residential construction sector is expected to grow by 3.8% in real terms in 2026 and register an average annual growth rate of 4.7% between 2027 and 2030, supported by the country’s aim – under Saudi Vision 2030 – to increase homeownership from 65.4% in 2024 to 70% by 2030, including by building 600,000 homes by 2030.
According to the General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Arabia attracted a net FDI inflow of SR72.3bn ($19.3bn) in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 32.7% year-on-year (YoY) compared to the same period in 2024.
Similarly, the total value of real estate loans from banks grew by 11.5% YoY in 2025, preceded by an annual growth of 13.3% in 2024, according to the Saudi Central Bank (Sama).
READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFEconomic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA: Gulf economies under fire> GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift> MARKET FOCUS: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift> QATAR LNG: Qatar’s new $8bn investment heats up global LNG race> LEADERSHIP: Shaping the future of passenger rail in the Middle EastTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16340004/main.png -
Kuwait gives bidders more time for Al-Khairan IWPP
10 April 2026
Kuwait has extended bidding for the first phase of the Al-Khairan independent water and power producer (IWPP) project.
The project is being procured by the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) and the Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).
The facility will have a capacity of 1,800MW and 150,000 cubic metres a day of desalinated water. It will be located in Al-Khairan, adjacent to the Al-Zour South thermal plant.
The new deadline is 30 April. The original deadline was 31 March.
The main contract was tendered last September. Three consortiums and two individual companies were previously prequalified to participate.
These include:
- Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) / A H Al-Sagar & Brothers (Saudi Arabia) / Jera (Japan)
- Acwa (Saudi Arabia) / Gulf Investment Corporation (Kuwait)
- China Power / Malakoff International (Malaysia) / Abdul Aziz Al-Ajlan Sons (Saudi Arabia)
- Nebras Power (Qatar)
- Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)
The Al-Khairan IWPP project is part of Kuwait’s long-term plan to expand power and water production capacity through public-private partnerships (PPPs).
The winning bidder will sign a set of PPP agreements covering financing, design, construction, operation and transfer of the project.
The energy conversion and water purchase agreement is expected to cover a 25-year supply period.
Kapp extended another deadline recently for a contract to develop zone two of the third phase of the Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy project.
The PPP authority is procuring the 500MW solar photovoltaic independent power project (IPP) in partnership with the ministry.
The bid submission deadline was moved to the end of April, a source close to the project told MEED.
According to the MEWRE, the total generation capacity currently offered under partnership projects has reached 6,100MW, equivalent to about 30% of Kuwait’s existing power capacity.
The ministry and Kapp are also preparing to tender the main contract for the 3,600MW Nuwaiseeb power and water desalination plant after plans were approved by Kuwait’s Council of Ministers last November.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16339960/main.jpg