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GCC banks show resilience amid regional conflict

5 March 2026

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The GCC’s banking sector is facing its most significant test in years following the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran, and the subsequent strikes launched by Iran on all six GCC states.

The data so far indicates that the region’s finances are holding firm. “Fitch believes GCC sovereign ratings generally have sufficient headroom to withstand a short regional conflict that does not escalate significantly further, including in most cases substantial assets that provide a buffer against short-term hydrocarbon revenue disruption,” it said in a report on 3 March.

In the UAE, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) issued a statement on 5 March saying that the nation’s banking and financial sector continues to operate normally. It said the UAE’s banking assets now exceed AED5.42tn ($1.48tn), supported by a capital adequacy ratio of 17% and a liquidity coverage ratio of 146.6%, adding that both figures sit comfortably above international regulatory requirements.

“The UAE’s banking and financial sector continues to maintain very strong levels of capital adequacy and liquidity … reflecting the scale, resilience and strength of financial institutions operating in the country,” said Khaled Mohamed Balama, governor of the CBUAE.

While the immediate financial metrics are sound, the broader operating environment is not without its challenges. Fitch notes that the attacks raise risks to the 2026 baseline, which had previously assumed robust non-oil growth driven by the region’s massive pipeline of diversification projects.

Economic impact

The conflict has already impacted the real economy. Air travel suspensions, a slowdown in consumer activity and shifting risk perceptions regarding tourism could weigh on non-oil GDP if the tension lingers. Fitch highlighted that the key metric to monitor will be the “strength of operating conditions, particularly non-oil growth and general confidence in the region”.

The critical variable remains the duration of the conflict. If hostilities are contained within a month – as is the current expectation among analysts – the impact on GCC economic growth is likely to be temporary.

There are specific regional nuances to watch. While most GCC banks enjoy ample liquidity, those in Qatar and Saudi Arabia have historically faced tighter conditions. “The conflict could make it more challenging for GCC-based entities to issue debt in overseas capital markets. This could particularly increase Saudi banks’ reliance on more expensive domestic markets,” said Fitch. 

For now, the strategy from both regulators and ratings agencies is one of cautious optimism. The region’s capital expenditure programmes and diversification drives provide a structural momentum that is difficult to derail in the short term.

Fitch concluded that as long as energy infrastructure remains intact and public spending continues to shore up growth, the GCC’s financial institutions are well-positioned to navigate the crisis.

READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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Colin Foreman

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    5 March 2026

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    The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf by Iran since 28 February is likely to be temporary given its vital economic role in global oil trade, according to credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.

    This, alongside global oil market oversupply, should limit oil price rises and mitigate any potential disruptions to Iranian oil supply, Fitch Ratings said in a note.

    As a result, the ratings agency does not expect significant upside to its December 2025 assumption of an average Brent oil price of $63 a barrel for 2026.

    “The strait is not formally closed, but vessels are increasingly avoiding it given the risk of attack by Iran or its proxies. Oil majors have halted shipments for safety reasons, and insurers are cancelling war risk cover for vessels. However, we expect this effective closure of the strait to be temporary. It is a vital artery for seaborne oil transportation, with limited alternative routes,” said Angelina Valavina, EMEA head of Natural Resources and Commodities at Fitch Ratings.

    Oil prices rose on 5 March, extending a rally as the ‌escalating US-Israeli war with Iran continued to disrupt supplies, prompting some major producers to cut production and others to take measures to ensure supply security.

    Brent crude was up $2.35, or 2.9%, at $83.75 a barrel at 12pm Gulf Standard Time, a fifth session of gains. US ​West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.42, or 3.2%, to $77.08.

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    “Prior to the conflict, around 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products transited the strait, accounting for about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a fifth of global oil consumption. About half of the oil volumes transported through the strait are exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the remainder from Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. About half of these exports go to China and India.

    “A protracted closure would affect both exporting and importing countries and therefore is not our baseline assumption. If the strait were to remain effectively closed for a protracted period, naval protection for tanker navigation could be considered, as occurred during the 1980s' Iran-Iraq war,” Valavina said in the note from Fitch Ratings.

    “In addition, the global oil market is oversupplied, which should limit the geopolitical risk premium and cap risks to oil price increases. Global supply growth exceeded demand growth in 2025. Fitch expects this trend to continue in 2026. Supply increased by about 3 million b/d in 2025, while demand grew by well below 1 million b/d,” Valavina said.

    “We forecast supply growth of 2.4 million b/d in 2026, with demand growth of about 0.8 million b/d. Half of 2025-26 supply increases come from unaffected non-Opec+ producers. Opec+ spare production capacity is 4.3 million b/d,” she added.

    “In addition, global observed oil inventories rose by 1.3 million b/d in 2025 to reach their highest level since March 2021. Total global inventories stood at 8.2 billion barrels at end-2025. This is sufficient to cover a halt in oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz for over 400 days.

    “Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some infrastructure to bypass the strait, which may mitigate transit disruptions. Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabian Oil Company; A+/Stable) operates the 5 million b/d East–West crude oil pipeline to an export port on the Red Sea. The UAE operates a 1.5 million b/d capacity pipeline linking its oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal on the Gulf of Oman with a maximum achieved flow of 1.8 million b/d.

    “While Iran is a sizeable oil producer, producing about 3.5 million b/d and exporting about 2 million b/d, it accounts only for about 3.5% of global crude oil production. This means that potential supply disruption would be offset by global market oversupply.”

    Valavina concluded: “However, the duration and intensity of the increasingly regional conflict remain uncertain. Any protracted blockage of the strait or material and sustained damage to the region’s oil and gas production and transportation infrastructure would materially affect oil markets and likely result in a more material rise in our base case 2026 oil price assumption. Oil price volatility would rise if there were to be any material disruption to Iranian oil production.”

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  • Alec resumes project operations across the UAE

    5 March 2026

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    UAE-based construction firm Alec has resumed on-site and in-office operations across its UAE projects from 4 March.

    In a statement, the company said that it is working closely with clients to ensure a prompt and safe return to full-scale activity.

    The move follows a temporary work-from-home policy introduced across the company’s UAE operations in response to ongoing events, as Alec Holdings reaffirmed its commitment to protecting its workforce while continuing to deliver in clients’ best interests.

    During the same period, the company said its operations in Saudi Arabia remained fully operational.

    Alec also confirmed it remains on track to hold its first Annual General Assembly meeting post-listing on 24 March, in line with regulatory guidelines.

    Barry Lewis, CEO of Alec Holdings, said the company’s “priority is, and always will be, the safety and security of our workforce”, adding that Alec was grateful to clients for their support.

    “That trust has been built over decades of delivering on our promises, and it is something we value deeply,” he said.

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  • QatarEnergy issues force majeure to customers

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    QatarEnergy has issued force majeure to customers who have been affected by its decision to stop production and shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated products.

    “QatarEnergy values its relationships with all of its stakeholders and will continue to communicate the latest available information,” the state enterprise said in a statement on 4 March.

    QatarEnergy announced its decision to halt production of LNG and associated products on 2 March due to military attacks on the company’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in Qatar.

    The following day, the company said it was stopping output of products in the downstream energy value chain, including urea, polymers, methanol, aluminium and other products.

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    Saudi Arabia’s Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (AWPT) has won a five-year contract from Jeddah Municipality for stormwater network services in the city.

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  • US-Israel attack on Iran incurs heavy regional price

    5 March 2026

     

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    The joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched on 28 February under operations codenamed Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, has pulled the GCC into the most destabilising regional confrontation in a generation.

    Six days into the crisis, the scale of collateral damage to Gulf capitals is becoming fully visible in damaged infrastructure, grounded aircraft, shuttered ports, halted energy production and a darkening investment climate.

    Every member of the GCC has absorbed Iranian missile or drone strikes, despite none having launched offensive operations against Tehran.

    In contrast to the restrained signalling from Iran during the 12-day war in June 2025 – when it choreographed its Gulf retaliation to a single base in Qatar – this campaign represents a deliberate effort to punish the US and states harbouring its assets.

    By 4 March, Iran had fired 186 ballistic missiles at the UAE alone, according to the UAE Ministry of Defence, with all but one intercepted, but with lethal debris falling across Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Of 812 drones launched toward the UAE, 57 made impact.

    Across the Gulf, however, the overall damage tallied so far is stark, particularly at US military bases. Iranian volleys have been directed with special intensity at the US Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and the Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, alongside every US airbase and associated radar and satellite communications system across the region.

    Strangled logistics

    The Strait of Hormuz – the 33-kilometre-wide channel between Iran and Oman – was also declared closed to traffic by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) the same day the US-Israeli attacks began.

    Closing the strait, through which approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil pass every day, has been a perennial Iranian threat, and now Tehran is making good on it.

    The strait is the sole maritime exit for much of the energy exported from the Gulf states, making up around a fifth of all seaborne oil traded globally in total.

    At least five vessels have been struck so far in enforcement of the blockade, but the real impediment to ships is now the withdrawal of war risk cover by insurance underwriters – leaving ships inside and outside of the strait stranded.

    Oil prices have responded accordingly, with Brent crude rising above $80 a barrel – up from closer to $60 – and with analysts placing $100 a barrel firmly back on the table if the disruption runs for more than a few weeks.

    LNG shutdown

    If the Hormuz closure has convulsed oil markets, the direct attack on Qatar’s energy infrastructure has delivered a separate and arguably more structurally significant blow.

    Iranian drones struck QatarEnergy’s facilities at both Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City, forcing a complete halt to all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and associated output.

    Qatar, which operated 14 LNG trains with a combined annual capacity of 77 million tonnes – accounting for roughly 20% of global LNG trade – now operates none. Doha, incensed, has cut ties with Iran.

    European benchmark gas futures meanwhile jumped almost 50% within hours of the announcement. Asian LNG spot prices rose by more than a third. Country-level squeezes have been even harder, with gas prices spiking by 93% in the UK, for example.

    Qatari production had been filling the void left in Europe by its boycott of Russian gas, so its halting of production now places European energy stocks under significant stress. Asian buyers, including Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, will also be feeling the strain.

    Regional trade risk

    The same war risk exclusions that have grounded the tanker fleet apply with equal force to container shipping, bulk carriers and general cargo vessels – extending the disruption beyond energy into every category of goods that moves through Gulf ports.

    And the ports themselves are also in jeopardy. Jebel Ali in Dubai – the region’s busiest port – was temporarily closed after fire broke out from debris falling from missile interceptions overhead. Other regional ports have also seen various suspensions.

    The world’s major container carriers have also drawn their own conclusions. MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have all halted Hormuz crossings entirely.

    Importers across the Gulf – a region that is overwhelmingly dependent on seaborne trade for food, consumer goods, construction materials and industrial inputs – face costly re-routing.

    Vessels are discharging Gulf-bound containers at Salalah in Oman, Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Duqm, from where onward delivery might be arranged overland. Spot freight rates for Gulf-destined cargo are in turn rising sharply as feeder capacity is overwhelmed.

    Travel under assault

    The Gulf’s aviation hubs have also been brought to a relative standstill.

    A drone strike on Dubai International, the busiest airport on earth for international travel, was the most dramatic incident, but several airports have been hit and sweeping airspace closures have grounded all but a handful of flights over the Gulf.

    On the worst day so far, more than 1,500 flights to or from Middle Eastern destinations were cancelled. The broader long-haul linkage through the Gulf from Europe to Asia has also been severed, forcing international legs to reroute away from the Gulf corridor.

    Drone and shrapnel strikes on luxury hospitality projects in the region have meanwhile dealt a heavy blow to the GCC’s touristic safe-haven status. The region’s busy meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE) calendar is in disarray.

    Gulf tourism entered 2026 in a strong position. Regional travel bookings had reached close to $101bn – 23% above pre-pandemic levels. Luxury hotel occupancy across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh had set successive records through the first two months of the year. That momentum has been destroyed inside of a week.

    Tourism Economics projects a fall in Middle East travel arrivals of around 11% year-on-year even in an optimistic scenario where the conflict resolves within weeks – meaning 23 million fewer visitors and a $34bn contraction in tourism spending.

    If the conflict runs for two months, the projected decline steepens to 27%, with up to 38 million lost arrivals and $56bn in foregone receipts.

    Long-term risks

    The IMF had projected GDP growth of about 4% across the six GCC economies in 2026, driven substantially by non-oil diversification and fuelled by sustained inflows of foreign capital, foreign talent and foreign visitors.

    Each of those flows is now disrupted, and some portion of the disruption will outlast the immediate security situation. Businesses could also restructure themselves to mitigate for elevated scenario of future regional risk.

    The GCC states find themselves in a position of extraordinary and largely undeserved exposure. They did not initiate this conflict, and several of them invested heavily in diplomatic outreach and mediation between concerned parties.

    The region is nevertheless absorbing the consequences.

    The preferred Gulf instruments of mediation, back-channel diplomacy and economic persuasion have been rendered irrelevant by the speed and scale of events.

    The region’s airlines, ports, refineries, LNG complexes, hotels, conference centres, stock exchanges and carefully constructed global image are all paying a price set by decisions made elsewhere. And the bill is still running.

    Investors will reassess, and the governments of the GCC now face the question of how to restore peace and order in a region being actively contested militarily by the US.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15859120/main.gif
    John Bambridge