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Gaza conflict tests UAE-Israel ties

13 June 2024

 

The stance of the UAE towards Israel has cooled dramatically in the past eight months amid the conflict in Gaza, which is proving to be a major test of the partnership built between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv.

From boasting of warm and open trade dealings, the UAE has gone quiet on its business deals with Israeli partners, while on a political and diplomatic level the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza has increasingly drawn condemnatory statements from UAE officials.

It is a twist in developments that neither country could have foreseen, as nor indeed had Saudi Arabia, which was nearing its own normalisation agreement with Israel. It has also taken a bilateral strategic partnership that was long in the making into uncertain territory.

Long-term partnership

The 2020 Abraham Accords that normalised relations between the UAE and Israel came at the tail end of at least a decade’s worth of interaction between the two countries. The agreement emerged first and foremost as a set of shared strategic interests in opposition to regional threats in the early 2010s.

In a very tangible interaction in 2016, pilots from the UAE and Israel for the first time participated together in aerial combat training exercises hosted by the United States Air Force (USAF) in Nevada.

The UAE’s relationship with Israel also intersects with its relationship with the US, including its hope of securing access to advanced US military technology and assets, such as the F-35 Stealth Fighter Jet.

In September 2020, UAE foreign ministry spokesperson Hend Al-Otaiba stated that a request for the F-35 had been made six years previously, and that, “given that the UAE intends to be a partner to Israel, and already has a deep strategic partnership with the US, we are hopeful the request will be granted”.

While the sale of the F-35 by the US to the UAE has yet to materialise, relations between the UAE and Israel have nonetheless thrived on their own since the accords, on the basis of ongoing shared security interests and the opportunities for business, trade and investment between the two countries.

Since 2020, the value of trade between the UAE and Israel has swollen to about $3bn annually, and defence ties have only strengthened. In 2022, Israel supplied the UAE with air defence systems following long-range attacks on the UAE's oil infrastructure by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen.

Israel-Palestine problems

It was as early as June 2023, however, that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken first warned that rising tensions in Palestine and Israel’s actions in the West Bank could imperil the process of normalisation.

With the advent of the war in Gaza, those fears of a damaging escalation in tensions have been realised.

As the conflict erupted in October, the UAE kept its distance and restricted itself to only the most limited commentary, condemning the “serious and grave escalation” by Hamas-led militants while calling for the full protection of all civilians under international humanitarian law.

By November, as the violence in Gaza ratcheted up, Abu Dhabi similarly affirmed its commitment to the accords even as individual UAE officials publicly condemned Israel’s actions and called for an end to the violence, pushing for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid and the release of hostages.

Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the president, labelled the conflict a “profound setback” for the region, and stressed that the tragic course of events should lead to a political re-engagement on the issues of realising a two-state solution with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The close working relationship between the UAE and Israel nevertheless continued, as evidenced by Israel’s acquiescence to Abu Dhabi’s humanitarian efforts in Gaza, which have included the UAE setting up a field hospital and performing aerial aid drops in the territory.

The long grind of the conflict and the increasing inflexibility and intransigence on ceasefire negotiations by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have nevertheless steadily eroded this early good will.

While in early January, Gargash affirmed that the normalisation agreement was “a strategic decision, and strategic decisions are long-term”, by late January, senior UAE officials were ringing alarm bells.

Four months on, speaking at the Arab Media Forum in Dubai in late May, Gargash lambasted the conflict in Gaza as having taken on “brutal and inhuman dimensions”, stating that the “heinous attack in Gaza and Rafah cannot be overlooked” – a far more critical tone than his earlier conciliatory speech.

Unreliable partner

On the international stage, the disinclination of the Israeli government to listen to any of its key allies or partners has been trying for all, including the US. For Israel’s normalised partners in the Middle East, the conflict has underscored the tension between the Abraham Accords and underlying regional sentiments.

The UAE’s own founding father, Sheikh Zayed, was an ardent personal supporter of the Palestinian cause, and under his watch, the UAE was one of the first states to recognise Palestine as an independent state.

In the present, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is drawing the competing influences of the UAE’s contemporary strategic interests and underlying sympathy for the Palestinian people into stark relief, and it is having a chilling effect on relations.

Public announcements in the UAE of deals with Israeli companies, which abounded before the conflict, have evaporated, and at least one very public deal has been put on hold amid the uncertainty.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had been due to take a $2bn stake, alongside the UK’s BP, in Israeli gas producer NewMed, which holds 45% of Israel’s Leviathan offshore gas field.

In mid-May, Netanyahu suggested that the UAE could be involved in the governance of Gaza – drawing a swift rejection from UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who stated: “The UAE refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip.”

The episode was a stark demonstration of the breakdown in communication and diplomatic alignment between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, and it joins a wider pattern of reports that UAE officials are already looking beyond Netanyahu and cultivating relations with his potential successors.

On 5 June, the UAE’s foreign minister again condemned the Israeli government after it allowed the divisive annual ‘Flag March’ of Israeli settlers through Jerusalem’s old city, as well as settler activism in the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, despite the extraordinarily heightened tensions over Gaza.

For UAE-Israel ties to thrive, Abu Dhabi needs a government partner in Tel Aviv that it can work with on a productive basis to safeguard interests between the two countries while avoiding diplomatic affronts.

Unfortunately for the UAE, the current Israeli government – with the far-right ministers that Netanyahu has brought into the cabinet – has had a habit of proving itself to be the very antithesis of such a partner.

Looking ahead, it could be a long road for UAE-Israel ties to return to resembling their halcyon state of 2021-22, and it will take a government in Israel under someone other than Netanyahu to get there.

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John Bambridge

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    Sector deteriorating

    The financial community has been quick to update its assessment of the sector’s prospects. Fitch Ratings revised its global airport sector outlook from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ in early June. The agency said the conflict has increased uncertainty over regional airspace availability, airline operations and travel demand, with implications for route stability and traffic quality.

    Fitch’s assessment is a warning sign for the Gulf. The region’s major airports have built their business models on international connectivity, long-haul flying and transfer traffic – precisely the categories Fitch identifies as most exposed to rerouting risk and weaker visibility on demand. Gulf hub operators also face the prospect of further airspace restrictions affecting routes linking Asia, Europe and Africa.

    The knock-on effects extend beyond airline revenues. Transfer passengers are also the highest-spending travellers in duty-free, retail and food and beverage outlets. Fitch noted that some Asia-Pacific airports have already begun benefiting from the redistribution of transit and long-haul traffic away from disrupted Gulf hubs.

    The global body representing airlines, the International Air Transport Association (Iata), was equally downbeat when it released its latest financial outlook on 8 June. The organisation now expects the global airline industry to achieve a combined net profit of $23bn in 2026 – roughly half the $41bn previously projected and about half the $45bn estimated for 2025. The net profit margin is forecast at 2%, compared with the earlier projection of 3.9% and last year’s 4.2%. Net profit per passenger is expected to be $4.50, down from $9.10 in 2025.

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    Fitch also raised concerns about the availability of jet fuel in Europe, noting potential disruption to Middle Eastern supply chains. While the agency expects European fuel reserves to cover the summer months even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it cautioned that winter operations could prove more challenging if the disruption persists. Higher airfares and fuel surcharges could further weigh on near-term demand – a headwind for Gulf airports that have benefited in recent years from the restoration of long-haul leisure travel following the Covid-19 pandemic.

    The insurance market adds another layer of complexity. Aviation policies typically grant insurers the right to cancel cover during active conflict, and the terms on which cover is being extended in a region that has seen airports repeatedly targeted are likely to be materially more expensive than before.

    Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel for the year – an increase of almost 70% on the $90-a-barrel average recorded in 2025

    Carrier optimism

    The Gulf’s airlines are more optimistic about the future. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways said in early June that it is operating at 90% of its pre-war available seat kilometres – the key industry capacity metric – and that by 15 June the airline will surpass 100%. Planes are 84% full, and crucially, fares are back at pre-war levels. Officials at the airline say that demand for transit through Abu Dhabi from Paris to Asia is running so strongly that the airline is laying on two of its A380 aircraft a day on that corridor from July. 

    While the expectation in the industry outside the Gulf had been that carriers such as Etihad and Emirates would need to discount heavily to entice passengers back after the ceasefire, Etihad has said that it does not expect prices to come down.

    The airline will not be entirely unscathed. Etihad had been on course to deliver a 10% operating margin in 2026, up from 8% in 2025, but that target will now be missed. The airline was badly hit in March, April and May and will not be fully back on track until August.

    Dubai’s Emirates Group released its 2025-26 annual results in May, which confirmed the airline’s status as the world’s most profitable carrier for the reporting year. The group posted a record profit before tax of AED24.4bn ($6.6bn), up 7% year-on-year, on revenues of AED150.5bn, also a record. 

    Unprecedented situation

    The context is important: the results cover the financial year to 31 March 2026, meaning only the final month of March was affected by the conflict. For the first 11 months, the group was surpassing its targets every month. March then brought what Emirates’ chairman and chief executive Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum described as an “unprecedented situation”. Emirates was flying just 58% of its capacity by 31 March.

    Despite the disruption, the results illustrate the depth of the financial cushion the group has built. Emirates also announced a 20-week salary bonus for employees – far exceeding the 13-week payout that had been linked to performance targets. For the year ahead, Sheikh Ahmed said Emirates would continue taking aircraft deliveries and pressing ahead with its retrofit programme, without resorting to “knee-jerk cost control measures”. The group has hedged its fuel exposure through to 2028-29. “Our fundamentals are strong,” he said.

    On 8 June, Riyadh Air – the airline backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund – announced five new destinations: Cairo, Dubai, Jeddah, Madrid and Manchester, coinciding with the arrival of its first three Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft. The airline also moved up its inaugural London flight from 1 July to 10 June. 

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    Looking ahead, there appears to be diverging fortunes for the sector. Globally, analysts say point-to-point leisure airports are typically better positioned than large hubs reliant on transfer traffic and international corridors, and this may also play out across the Middle East. Airports with a large share of local origin-and-destination demand may prove better insulated compared with the major connecting hubs whose business models depend on stable long-haul routings. 

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    Much remains uncertain. A ceasefire is in place and, as Sheikh Ahmed noted in the Emirates annual report, there are hopes for “a clear resolution to the hostilities soon, and a return to market stability”. But the drone attack on Kuwait shows that the threat from Iran to the region’s aviation infrastructure has not been neutralised. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of Gulf aviation. 

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