meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Gaza conflict tests UAE-Israel ties

13 June 2024

 

The stance of the UAE towards Israel has cooled dramatically in the past eight months amid the conflict in Gaza, which is proving to be a major test of the partnership built between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv.

From boasting of warm and open trade dealings, the UAE has gone quiet on its business deals with Israeli partners, while on a political and diplomatic level the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza has increasingly drawn condemnatory statements from UAE officials.

It is a twist in developments that neither country could have foreseen, as nor indeed had Saudi Arabia, which was nearing its own normalisation agreement with Israel. It has also taken a bilateral strategic partnership that was long in the making into uncertain territory.

Long-term partnership

The 2020 Abraham Accords that normalised relations between the UAE and Israel came at the tail end of at least a decade’s worth of interaction between the two countries. The agreement emerged first and foremost as a set of shared strategic interests in opposition to regional threats in the early 2010s.

In a very tangible interaction in 2016, pilots from the UAE and Israel for the first time participated together in aerial combat training exercises hosted by the United States Air Force (USAF) in Nevada.

The UAE’s relationship with Israel also intersects with its relationship with the US, including its hope of securing access to advanced US military technology and assets, such as the F-35 Stealth Fighter Jet.

In September 2020, UAE foreign ministry spokesperson Hend Al-Otaiba stated that a request for the F-35 had been made six years previously, and that, “given that the UAE intends to be a partner to Israel, and already has a deep strategic partnership with the US, we are hopeful the request will be granted”.

While the sale of the F-35 by the US to the UAE has yet to materialise, relations between the UAE and Israel have nonetheless thrived on their own since the accords, on the basis of ongoing shared security interests and the opportunities for business, trade and investment between the two countries.

Since 2020, the value of trade between the UAE and Israel has swollen to about $3bn annually, and defence ties have only strengthened. In 2022, Israel supplied the UAE with air defence systems following long-range attacks on the UAE's oil infrastructure by the Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen.

Israel-Palestine problems

It was as early as June 2023, however, that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken first warned that rising tensions in Palestine and Israel’s actions in the West Bank could imperil the process of normalisation.

With the advent of the war in Gaza, those fears of a damaging escalation in tensions have been realised.

As the conflict erupted in October, the UAE kept its distance and restricted itself to only the most limited commentary, condemning the “serious and grave escalation” by Hamas-led militants while calling for the full protection of all civilians under international humanitarian law.

By November, as the violence in Gaza ratcheted up, Abu Dhabi similarly affirmed its commitment to the accords even as individual UAE officials publicly condemned Israel’s actions and called for an end to the violence, pushing for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid and the release of hostages.

Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the president, labelled the conflict a “profound setback” for the region, and stressed that the tragic course of events should lead to a political re-engagement on the issues of realising a two-state solution with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The close working relationship between the UAE and Israel nevertheless continued, as evidenced by Israel’s acquiescence to Abu Dhabi’s humanitarian efforts in Gaza, which have included the UAE setting up a field hospital and performing aerial aid drops in the territory.

The long grind of the conflict and the increasing inflexibility and intransigence on ceasefire negotiations by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have nevertheless steadily eroded this early good will.

While in early January, Gargash affirmed that the normalisation agreement was “a strategic decision, and strategic decisions are long-term”, by late January, senior UAE officials were ringing alarm bells.

Four months on, speaking at the Arab Media Forum in Dubai in late May, Gargash lambasted the conflict in Gaza as having taken on “brutal and inhuman dimensions”, stating that the “heinous attack in Gaza and Rafah cannot be overlooked” – a far more critical tone than his earlier conciliatory speech.

Unreliable partner

On the international stage, the disinclination of the Israeli government to listen to any of its key allies or partners has been trying for all, including the US. For Israel’s normalised partners in the Middle East, the conflict has underscored the tension between the Abraham Accords and underlying regional sentiments.

The UAE’s own founding father, Sheikh Zayed, was an ardent personal supporter of the Palestinian cause, and under his watch, the UAE was one of the first states to recognise Palestine as an independent state.

In the present, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is drawing the competing influences of the UAE’s contemporary strategic interests and underlying sympathy for the Palestinian people into stark relief, and it is having a chilling effect on relations.

Public announcements in the UAE of deals with Israeli companies, which abounded before the conflict, have evaporated, and at least one very public deal has been put on hold amid the uncertainty.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had been due to take a $2bn stake, alongside the UK’s BP, in Israeli gas producer NewMed, which holds 45% of Israel’s Leviathan offshore gas field.

In mid-May, Netanyahu suggested that the UAE could be involved in the governance of Gaza – drawing a swift rejection from UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who stated: “The UAE refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip.”

The episode was a stark demonstration of the breakdown in communication and diplomatic alignment between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv, and it joins a wider pattern of reports that UAE officials are already looking beyond Netanyahu and cultivating relations with his potential successors.

On 5 June, the UAE’s foreign minister again condemned the Israeli government after it allowed the divisive annual ‘Flag March’ of Israeli settlers through Jerusalem’s old city, as well as settler activism in the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, despite the extraordinarily heightened tensions over Gaza.

For UAE-Israel ties to thrive, Abu Dhabi needs a government partner in Tel Aviv that it can work with on a productive basis to safeguard interests between the two countries while avoiding diplomatic affronts.

Unfortunately for the UAE, the current Israeli government – with the far-right ministers that Netanyahu has brought into the cabinet – has had a habit of proving itself to be the very antithesis of such a partner.

Looking ahead, it could be a long road for UAE-Israel ties to return to resembling their halcyon state of 2021-22, and it will take a government in Israel under someone other than Netanyahu to get there.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11898933/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • QatarEnergy gives North Field West topside bidders more time

    2 October 2026

     

    QatarEnergy has granted contractors more time to prepare bids for a tender covering the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of large platforms for the North Field gas field in Qatari waters.

    Contractors now have until 12 October to submit technical bids for the project, according to sources. Commercial bids are currently due on 10 November.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the North Field West (NFW) production deck modules (PDMs) tender:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Saipem (Italy)

    The core scope comprises the EPCI of four PDMs and associated structures. The PDMs will increase gas production from North Field reservoirs and provide additional gas feedstock for the NFW liquefied natural gas (LNG) development.

    The tender, issued earlier this year, forms part of the wider NFW project, the third and final phase of the state enterprise’s North Field LNG expansion programme.

    The previous deadlines for technical bids were 30 August, 15 September and 28 September, while commercial bids were previously due on 25 October, as MEED reported.

    Before issuing the PDMs tender, QatarEnergy awarded US firm McDermott a contract for the EPCI of four offshore jackets that will also support gas feedstock supply for the NFW LNG project. The contract is estimated to be worth about $200m, MEED reported in January.

    North Field LNG expansion

    QatarEnergy is advancing the three phases of its estimated $40bn North Field LNG expansion project. EPC works on all three projects are progressing.

    QatarEnergy is understood to have committed nearly $30bn to the first two phases – North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) – which will lift Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) to 126 million t/y by 2028.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts for NFE in 2021. The project was intended to raise LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The $13bn EPC package – covering the EPCI of four LNG trains, each with a capacity of 8 million t/y – was awarded in February 2021 to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip Energies.

    In May 2023, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for NFS to a consortium of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). The contract includes two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.8 million t/y.

    Once fully operational, the first two phases are expected to add 48 million t/y of LNG supply to the global market.

    QatarEnergy took the final investment decision on NFW earlier this year, awarding an EPC contract estimated at $8bn to a joint venture comprising Technip Energies, CCC and Gulf Asia Contracting in February.

    Chiyoda carried out the front-end engineering and design work for the NFW LNG project.

    The NFW scope covers the EPC of two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16 million t/y, as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery and helium extraction.

    In addition to LNG, NFW is expected to produce about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of condensate, ethane and liquefied petroleum gas.

    With all three phases under EPC execution – and NFE scheduled for commissioning later this year – QatarEnergy is positioning itself to remain one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers in the long term.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20208200/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Egypt implements oil and gas storage projects worth $1.1bn

    2 October 2026

    Egypt is implementing oil and gas storage projects worth a total of £E54bn ($1.1bn), according to a statement released by the country’s cabinet.

    Active developments include expanding El-Hamra Petroleum Port in El-Alamein on the Mediterranean coast, as well as building a jet-fuel storage and transport hub at the Badr depot in Cairo.

    Other projects include constructing new storage tanks at refinery complexes in Amreya, Alexandria; Assiut; and Cairo.

    Over the past 12 years, Egypt has built 84 petroleum storage facilities with a total capacity of 5.2 million tonnes, the cabinet statement said.

    Egypt has invested £E42.7bn ($880m) in developing these facilities, with the aim of bolstering domestic energy security.

    Completed infrastructure projects include facilities in Sohag (Upper Egypt) and Alexandria.

    They also include offshore terminal and storage facilities, a liquid bulk station in Ain Sokhna, and strategic crude oil storage tanks across the country.

    Storage facilities have become a strategic priority for Egypt since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, triggering a regional war that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The disruption has made imports of hydrocarbon products into Egypt less predictable, increasing the importance of strategic stockpiles.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20208195/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Bankability key to Saudi PPP pipeline

    2 October 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) holds structured talks with bidders and lenders before launching transactions to ensure projects in its pipeline are bankable, according to a senior official.

    Speaking on a panel at MEED’s Shaping Mega Projects conference in Riyadh on 28 September, Tariq Alghaziri, executive vice-president at the NCP, said the centre carries out market sounding with potential bidders and debt providers, including commercial and Islamic banks, before announcing deals.

    “Bankability is a key word for us,” he said. “You can structure the deal in the way you want. You can have whatever technicalities and technologies are required, but is it suitable for the private sector to deliver? That’s the big question.”

    Alghaziri said the national privatisation strategy, approved at the end of 2025 and published at the start of 2026, sets the NCP’s targets up to 2030 and outlines its project pipeline. The strategy coincides with the third phase of Vision 2030, which he said is focused on measuring impact after earlier phases established the legal framework and enabled the private sector.

    Public-private partnership (PPP) contracts typically run for 25 years and, in some cases, more than 40 years, he said, which makes early engagement essential. “When we launch it, all the bidders, suppliers, EPC contractors, banks and ECAs are on the same page, and then they just have to align on commercial points and not negotiate legal aspects.”

    Risk transfer

    Jonathan Looker, managing director for Saudi Arabia at UK consultancy Mott MacDonald, said the public and private sectors often perceive risk very differently.

    "Can you put yourself in the shoes of the person you’re trying to transfer risk to?” he said. “There isn’t one single allocation model that is fit for every project.”

    Looker said failure to agree on risk can prevent projects from reaching financial close. "I’ve unfortunately been involved in a number of projects where we just can’t get the deal done because there is not a meeting of minds around a specific aspect of risk.”

    Alghaziri said Saudi regulations now state that the party with the capacity to manage a risk should take it, but that risk carries a cost. “You cannot just give the risk without pricing it,” he said. The NCP has trained more than 300 people over the past five or six years, including through a PPP professional certification it introduced in the kingdom.

    Early planning

    Hesham Ouf, senior director of finance at Roshn Group, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary, said risk management begins at the feasibility stage. “You need to have the stage gates right from the beginning until the project is delivered,” he said.

    Ali Al-Kuwari, senior manager of export development at Qatar Development Bank (QDB), said early disclosure of procurement needs allows lenders to assess project risk. “For me, the answer is very easy. I’ll ask for a sovereign guarantee,” he said.

    Wesley Thomson, partner and head of environmental, social and governance (ESG) at UK property consultancy Knight Frank, said climate exposure is becoming a central risk for long-life assets. “Mitigation is not the right word any more. I prefer to say adaptation, because the truth is you need to adapt to what we’re seeing.”

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20207592/main.png
    Colin Foreman
  • Financing hinders progress at major Iraqi refinery project

    2 October 2026

     

    Financial problems are hindering progress at Iraq’s Al-Faw Investment Refinery project, according to industry sources.

    Despite the main contract being signed more than two years ago, construction of the main refinery units has yet to begin because of ongoing financial issues, sources said.

    In May 2024, a statement released by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office said that Iraq’s state-owned Southern Refineries Company and China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC) had signed a contract to develop the project.

    Iraq’s Oil Ministry previously said the project would be worth $7bn-$8bn.

    The project has struggled to make progress even after direct intervention by Iraq’s previous prime minister.

    On 6 August 2025, 15 months after the May 2024 contract signing with CNCEC, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, then prime minister, chaired a special meeting to resolve administrative and technical obstacles preventing the project from starting.

    At the time, Al-Sudani said the refinery project would have significant financial returns and would be “a breakthrough in the oil industry”.

    While the meeting in 2025 is believed to have solved some of the administrative issues blocking progress, financial problems with the project remain, sources said.

    The Al-Faw project is part of the Iraqi government’s plan to increase Iraq’s refining capacity, attract foreign investment and increase domestic production of petroleum products.

    Under existing plans, the refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets.

    The project will be carried out in two stages.

    The first phase will involve refining operations, while the second will involve constructing a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million tonnes a year.

    The project also includes building a 2,000MW power plant and establishing the Al-Faw Academy for Refinery Technology to train 5,000 Iraqi workers who will eventually work at the facility.

    Hualu, a subsidiary of CNCEC, signed a preliminary principles agreement for the project in December 2021.

    Due to material price inflation since December 2021, some insiders believe the project value may now be significantly higher than the previously estimated $7bn-$8bn.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20207119/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Saudi pre-budget leans on borrowing to fund projects

    2 October 2026

    Saudi Arabia plans to spend SR1.39tn ($371.2bn) in 2027, according to the Finance Ministry’s pre-budget statement. That is 3% less than the estimated outturn for 2026, after regional conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed this year’s expenditure well past its allocation.

    The ministry now expects 2026 spending to reach SR1.44tn, which is SR122bn or 9.3% above the SR1.31tn approved in the budget. Revenues are estimated at SR1.19tn, SR43bn above budget, leaving a deficit of SR245bn, equal to 4.9% of GDP. The original budget assumed a SR165bn deficit, or 3.3% of GDP.

    For 2027, the statement projects revenues of SR1.2tn and a deficit of SR191bn, or 3.6% of GDP. Expenditure is forecast to rise to SR1.48tn in 2028 and SR1.54tn in 2029, with deficits of SR177bn and SR192bn projected for those years. On the ministry’s figures, the kingdom will run cumulative deficits of SR560bn ($149.3bn) between 2027 and 2029.

    The economic backdrop has deteriorated sharply. The ministry expects real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2026, driven by a 21.8% fall in oil activity, while non-oil activity grows by 3.2%. It forecasts a rebound to 12.8% real growth in 2027.

    Capital spending

    The statement does not publish a capital expenditure figure or a sector breakdown. Those will follow with the budget in Q4. It does signal that project spending will continue. As Vision 2030 enters what the statement calls its third phase, the government says efforts will focus on “accelerating the pace of delivery and capitalising on growth opportunities through continued government capital expenditure”. It also wants a stronger role for the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the National Development Fund in stimulating domestic investment.

    The ministry says it will “implement infrastructure-related programmes” and direct resources “towards priority programmes and projects”. It also commits to “maximise the utilisation of existing government assets and investments”. That wording points to a sharper focus on completing and monetising existing schemes rather than launching new ones.

    The medium-term debt strategy is designed to ensure “the continuity of the implementation of priority projects without being linked to the fluctuations of the economic cycle”, according to the statement.

    The government’s revenue scenarios hold expenditure at SR1.39tn in all three cases. Under the lowest revenue case of SR1.13tn, the deficit widens to SR259bn. The highest case of SR1.26tn narrows it to SR132bn. Any change falls on borrowing rather than on spending.

    The ministry says debt will deliberately rise by the end of 2027, and the borrowing plan will be disclosed by the end of this year. Alongside bonds, sukuk and loans, the government plans to expand “alternative government financing, including financing of projects, infrastructure and export credit agencies” in 2027 and over the medium term.

    Private capital

    The statement presents private investment as a growing share of project delivery. Investment in privatisation and public-private partnership (PPP) projects reached about SR180bn by the end of 2025. The National Privatisation Strategy was approved in November 2025. Ten privatisation and PPP projects have been launched under it in the first half of 2026, including the Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz International Airport PPP in Qassim. Contracts were signed for the Sabic Mental Health Hospital and the Jubail Container Terminal, taking the total to 83 partnership contracts. Private capital investment has exceeded SR56.2bn, against a target of SR240bn by 2030.

    The National Infrastructure Fund has committed SR10.5bn since 2022 to projects with a combined value of about SR59.3bn, of which SR44.1bn is private investment. Projects it has backed include the Neom green hydrogen project, the Shuaibah solar photovoltaic plants, the Prince Mohammad Bin Abdulaziz Airport expansion, the Jubail-Buraidah independent water transmission pipeline and the Ezditek data centre. The fund plans to expand into healthcare, education, sports and artificial intelligence.

    PIF’s domestic investments totalled about SR750bn between 2021 and 2025. The statement lists several recent contracts across its portfolio. Diriyah Company, the PIF-owned developer of the Diriyah gigaproject, awarded a SR1.8bn contract to a consortium of local companies to build the Saudi Museum of Contemporary Art. PIF-owned Soudah Development signed a SR1.3bn agreement with National Grid SA, the transmission subsidiary of Saudi Electricity Company, to deliver electricity infrastructure for the Soudah Peaks project. Saudi Entertainment Ventures, also owned by PIF, plans 14 destinations across 13 cities, with investment of more than SR45bn. The Saudi Export-Import Bank plans to provide SR41.6bn of financing and insurance to non-oil exporters in 2027.

    Logistics investment has also become a priority since the disruption to Gulf shipping. The share of non-oil exports passing through Red Sea ports rose to 40.7% during the crisis, from 19.3% before it. In July, the General Ports Authority signed contracts worth up to SR1bn for seven logistics centres at Jeddah Islamic Port and Al-Khumrah. A separate logistics corridors initiative connects Gulf ports to the Red Sea by road and rail.

    The final 2027 budget is due for approval in Q4.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20206117/main.gif
    Colin Foreman