meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Gaza conflict reignites violence in Syria

4 June 2024

 

Since fighting began in the Gaza war in October, Syria’s civil war has been pushed even further down the regional agenda, threatening to turn a largely frozen conflict into a forgotten one.

The intensity of the fighting, which entered its 14th year in March, has atrophied into a near stalemate in recent years, with the regime of President Bashar Al Assad controlling around 70% of the country, while a medley of rebel groups, Turkish forces and Kurdish and Arab militias hold a patchwork of territories across the north and east.

However, the battle between Israel and Hamas has threatened to reignite the Syrian war in new ways.

Assad has been doing his best to avoid getting involved in any regional escalation, but that has not always been easy, with the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on 1 April, in particular, raising the risk of Syria becoming a battleground.

Over the past decade, there have been numerous Israeli attacks in Syria against the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp’s Al Quds force as well as Tehran-backed militias, but the rate of attacks has increased since the Gaza war broke out.

Expanding violence

In March, the UN’s Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria issued a report which said the country has been suffering the worst wave of violence since 2020. “Since October, Syria has seen the largest escalation in fighting in four years,” said commission chairman Paulo Pinheiro at the time. “Syria … desperately needs a ceasefire.”

That analysis has been backed up by the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, which recorded 201 incidents linked to Israeli attacks in Syria involving 236 deaths between October 2023 and March 2024, the highest number since it began tracking the civil war in 2017.

Assad has several reasons to want to avoid being drawn further into conflict with Israel, not least that his own forces are stretched and weakened after years of fighting.

Damascus has also not forgotten that Hamas broke ties with Assad during the Arab Spring, with the Palestinian group’s leader, Khaled Mashal, leaving Damascus in early 2012. Relations were only restored a decade later, when a Hamas delegation travelled to the Syrian capital, but they remain strained.

In contrast to the threat of escalation as a result of Gaza, the Syrian civil war itself has been largely stagnant since 2020, when Damascus abandoned its attempt to recapture the Idlib governorate in the northwest. Since then, the frontlines have stayed largely the same, but the country is far from being at peace and there is the constant threat of fresh fighting breaking out.

In October last year, a drone strike on a military graduation ceremony in the government-controlled city of Homs killed 80 people and wounded 240. In response, government forces launched an offensive against groups in the northwestern Idlib province, where Tahrir Al Sham (a militant group that emerged in 2017 out of several others) and the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front have their strongholds.

In April this year, suspected members of the Islamic State group killed 22 pro-government fighters of the Quds Brigade near the town of Sukhna in central Syria. There were similar attacks the following month.

Diplomatic overtures

Regional powers, including some in the Gulf, have urged Syria to resist being drawn into the Gaza conflict. Relations between Damascus and several Gulf capitals have been improving over the past few years, although the momentum behind that process appears to be slowing down.

Assad was in Bahrain in mid-May to attend the Arab Summit – the second such gathering he has been at since Syria was re-admitted to the organisation in 2023 following a diplomatic push by Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Among the other signs of diplomatic re-engagement, the UAE’s ambassador to Syria, Hassan Ahmed Al Shehi, took up his post in February, and in late May, Saudi Arabia named Faisal Al Mujfel its ambassador to Damascus – its first senior envoy there for 12 years.

The diplomatic outreach by the Gulf countries is motivated in large part by a desire to put pressure on Damascus to restrict the flow of the illegal drug Captagon into their markets, but there has been little sign to date that the Assad regime is willing to end that trade – which, by some measures, is now the largest part of the Syrian economy.

There are problems with other regional powers too, not least Turkey, which maintains control over two areas of northern Syria along their common border, from where it is trying to neutralise the threat of the People’s Defence Units (YPG), the Kurdish group at the core of the Syrian Democratic Forces now in control of some 20-25% of Syrian territory in the northeast of the country. Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist group due to its association with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is banned in Turkey.

“What Damascus wants of Turkey is a full withdrawal; Turkey leaving and moving all its troops from Syria,” said Dareen Khalifa, senior adviser for dialogue promotion at the International Crisis Group, at the same Chatham House event.

“What Turkey wants of Damascus is preventing a new wave of refugees, crushing the Kurdish-led YPG forces and so on. It wants things from Damascus that Damascus can’t really deliver on. So, I think that deadlock is going to continue.”

That looks to be true of the wider civil war, too, with little sign that the Assad regime or the various rebel groups have the ability to force significant changes on the ground.

Less clear is how the situation in Gaza, and the associated Israeli attacks and provocation against Iranian groups on Syrian soil, could yet affect the ongoing conflict in Syria in less predictable ways.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854698/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Accor expects Dubai hotel recovery by mid-2027

    17 July 2026

     

    Paris-headquartered hotel operator Accor expects Dubai’s hotel market to return to pre-conflict occupancy levels by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with room rates lagging the volume recovery by several months.

    Duncan O’Rourke, chief executive for the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific at the hotel operator (pictured right), said the group had maintained profitability across its Dubai portfolio during the conflict period through cost control and revenue management, but acknowledged that rates and occupancy had fallen materially from January and February levels.

    “There is no question that this crisis affected Dubai,” O’Rourke said at a media briefing in Dubai on 26 June. “As for occupancy in Dubai, we managed – through profit protection and cost control – to keep the hotels in a positive position, so we weren’t losing money.”

    He said the arrival of the summer low season provided a degree of relief. “If there is a time to slowly slide out of this crisis, it is the right time, which is now. What I see going forward is that volumes will come back. You will not have the rates immediately that you had in January and February. By the end of Q1 or Q2 next year, I think you will get close to where we were.”

    Luxury first

    O’Rourke said the luxury and upper-upscale segment was likely to lead the recovery, consistent with the pattern observed after previous crises.

    “Generally, when you have a crisis, the first segment to click back quicker is the high-end luxury. People then think: it is not about whether I should go – it is, let’s go. We saw that in Covid. Fairmont is well positioned to do that, and the Sofitel and Maison brands are in the stage of recovery going forward.”

    Jean-Jacques Morin, group deputy chief executive at Accor (pictured right), said the UAE’s underperformance had been contained within Accor’s broader international portfolio that continued to grow.

    “The Middle East is about 10% of the network,” he said. “That also explains why my tone on the capability of the results is so positive – not only do you have the hedging across geographies, but it is also, in the end, only one part of the business.”

    Rate outlook

    Morin dismissed concerns that the conflict had structurally weakened Dubai’s pricing power, drawing a parallel with the period following Covid-19.

    “When we came out of Covid, everybody said those prices would never hold. The question at every analyst call was always the same: your pricing strategy is unsustainable. Guess what? Nothing changed. The prices now, three or four years later, are still the same.”

    He argued that consumers consistently prioritise travel expenditure when reallocating budgets. “What you see when the economy goes sideways is that people reallocate disposable income differently. People are basically redirecting the way they do things and keeping the same amount they want to spend, but spending it differently.”

    Morin also said Dubai has a track record of outpacing expectations after previous disruptions. “The first part of the world, post-Covid, that came back to positive RevPAR was the Middle East – it was Dubai. People forget that. The capacity of this part of the world to rebound, and the capacity of the industry to rebound in general, is always misunderstood.”

    No pullback

    Accor said it had not paused or cancelled any development commitments in the region as a result of the conflict. “We did not change anything from a strategic perspective,” Morin said. “The last thing you want is to pull back, because this is going to rebound.”

    The group has also used the period to accelerate planned refurbishments and redeploy staff across the region rather than reduce headcount.

    “We have 380 hotels here – we are the largest player in the Middle East. Where we accelerated refurbishments, we were able to take key employees and move them to larger hotels elsewhere in the region. What people learned during Covid was the cost of layoffs afterwards – bringing people back and retraining them. There was a massive learning curve. This time, discussions with partners about layoffs were less challenging; it was more about accommodating staffing needs during that period,” O’Rourke said.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17695301/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • GCC downstream operators urged to seek used European equipment

    17 July 2026

     

    The operators of downstream oil and gas facilities in the GCC that are rebuilding after attacks during the regional war are being advised by the insurance industry to procure used equipment from Europe, where a large number of petrochemical facilities have closed down over recent years.

    A wide range of refineries and petrochemical plants in the region are currently undertaking repairs and replacing damaged equipment after attacks by Iran.

    The attacks started after the US and Israel launched attacks on sites in Iran on 28 February.

    Nick Holland, the head of engineering for India, the Middle East and Africa at the US-based insurance broker Marsh, says that many downstream facilities carrying out repairs in the GCC could cut costs and reduce the time it takes to rebuild by making deals with companies in Europe.

    “Many plants have shut down in Europe over the past five years,” he says. “These refinery and chemical-plant closures may create an opportunity for Gulf operators to acquire high-quality used equipment.

    “We have some incredible demand in the Middle East to recover as quickly as possible, and I would certainly be encouraging operators to take the opportunity to procure second-hand equipment from facilities that have closed down in Europe.”

    Earlier this month, Jim Ratcliffe, the chairman of the London-headquartered chemicals company Ineos, wrote an open letter to Ursula Von Der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, saying that the chemical industry in Europe is “highly stressed” and in the midst of a “closure phase”.

    He said that nearly 200 European chemical plants had closed down during the past five years.

    Holland says that companies in the GCC looking to minimise business disruption and rebuild as quickly as possible should reach out to companies in Europe to obtain equipment that would normally take a long time to procure from equipment manufacturers.

    “A new large high-pressure reactor could have a lead time of approximately 110 weeks, so adapting an existing reactor could significantly accelerate recovery,” he says.

    “Other possible items include pumps, compressors, rotating equipment and boilers.

    “Reusing equipment is unusual but not unprecedented. Used equipment would require inspection, remaining-life assessment, re-engineering and confirmation that it is fit for the new operating conditions.”

    Over recent months, there have been reports of downstream oil facilities being hit by Iranian attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17692930/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Medina tenders Quba Mosque expansion

    17 July 2026

     

    Madinah Region Development Authority (MRDA) has tendered a contract to expand Quba Mosque in the Medina region of Saudi Arabia.

    The tender was issued earlier this month, with a bid submission deadline of 31 August.

    MRDA has appointed local consulting firm Jasara as the project management consultant.

    Jasara, in turn, has appointed London-based firm HKA to provide specialist procurement and delivery-model advice and to support the selection of a suitable contracting partner for the project.

    Dar Al-Omran has prepared the design for the expansion.

    Quba Mosque is located about five kilometres south of the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina.

    Project background

    Quba Mosque is considered the first mosque established in Islam, in 622 AD. The proposed expansion will increase the mosque’s area from 5,035 square metres (sq m) to 53,000 sq m and raise capacity to 66,000 worshippers, from 12,000.

    The expansion will also include the restoration of 57 historical sites and the creation of three pathways to enhance Medina’s spiritual and cultural landscape.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17691327/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bahrain taps consultants for studying use of nuclear power

    17 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Bahrain is exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption as well as for potential export of surplus, with state energy conglomerate Bapco Energies tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant.

    According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.

    Under the plan being studied, power to be produced by the nuclear facility will be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the kingdom, such as Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Bapco Refining, for clean production of aluminium and refined products, respectively, in line with Bahrain’s ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.

    BeVentures has, in turn, approached global consultancy firms such as Bechtel, Fluor, Kent, Technip Energies and Wood to assist with concept study and early-stage planning and assessment of the modular or small nuclear power project.

    Bapco Energies and BeVentures are also considering tapping into private financing and/or equity partnerships, in part or in full, for the proposed project, sources told MEED.

    Bapco Energies did not respond to MEED’s request for comment and additional information on the proposed modular nuclear project.

    Mark Thomas, the group CEO of Bapco Energies, told MEED in an interview in April last year that BeVentures was considering investments in “ … new technologies that can both help existing business, as well as prepare … for the future, for the energy transition”. 

    “We’re looking at opportunities principally within our existing businesses around oil and gas production, refining and petrochemicals. But we’re also looking at elements that will prepare us for the future, more into renewables,” Thomas said, without explicitly mentioning nuclear power.

    Case for nuclear power

    Bahrain’s interest in exploring nuclear power has been driven primarily by the limitations of its hydrocarbon endowment. Given its small territorial size – about 786 square kilometres – Bahrain holds relatively modest hydrocarbon reserves compared with its Gulf peers.

    The kingdom produces about 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, of which the Awali Field, also known as the Bahrain Field, contributes approximately 42,400 b/d.

    Most of Bahrain’s crude production – about 145,000 b/d – comes from the offshore Abu Safah field, located in Gulf waters between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and shared between Bapco Energies’ subsidiary Bapco Upstream and Saudi Aramco.

    Bapco Energies has long pursued additional resources to boost oil and gas output. However, the discovery of the Khalij Al-Bahrain basin in 2018 – its biggest find in decades – has yet to live up to its promise. Initially estimated to hold 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the find has not translated into production at the anticipated scale. Other, smaller exploration efforts with foreign players have also yet to yield the desired results.

    The kingdom therefore remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas supplies, importing about 350,000 b/d from Aramco via the AB-4 pipeline.

    At the same time, given its environmental sustainability targets, other forms of renewable energy – mainly solar – are unlikely on their own to enable Bahrain to reach net zero by 2060.

    Bapco Energies published emissions-reduction targets in July 2023, in one of the most detailed disclosures by any state energy enterprise in the GCC. It has also engaged advisers including Boston Consulting Group to help devise a strategy to meet its environmental goals, and Standard Chartered to support financing requirements.

    Using 2017 as a baseline year, Bapco Energies has committed to reducing absolute Scope 3 emissions in Bahrain by 30% by 2035, and to reaching net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2060.

    In addition, Bapco Energies sets out net emissions-intensity reduction targets for Scope 1 and 2 – also using 2017 as a baseline – of 15% by 2025, 25% by 2030, 30% by 2035, 50% by 2040 and 75% by 2050, with the aim of achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2060.

    Bahrain has been laying the groundwork to enable it to tap nuclear power for household and industrial needs in the future.

    The kingdom is already operating under a Country Programme Framework (2024–29) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which establishes regulatory and safety benchmarks that must be in place before any commercial reactor construction begins.

    In July last year, Manama also signed a civilian nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding with the US. Financed under the US Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) programme, the partnership provides Bahrain with technical support to develop secure, weaponisation-free civil nuclear infrastructure.

    Small modular reactor (SMR) technology could be the most viable pathway forward for Bapco Energies in its quest to develop domestic nuclear power. Unlike conventional large-scale, capital-intensive gigawatt reactors, SMR units – typically under 300MW – require only a fraction of the land area needed for solar capacity of an equivalent output.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17689719/main0822.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Qatar seeks to establish new industrial area in Mesaieed

    16 July 2026

    Qatar’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry and state enterprise QatarEnergy have signed an agreement to cooperate on evaluating and allocating hydrocarbon-derived resources to support the establishment of a new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.

    Under the terms of reference signed between the parties, QatarEnergy will implement a governance mechanism for the allocation of hydrocarbon-derived feedstock to qualifying industrial investment opportunities for the proposed new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.

    “The agreed terms of reference stipulate the evaluation and allocation of hydrocarbon-derived resources, natural gas, power and related natural resources to downstream derivative industrial investment opportunities,” QatarEnergy said in a statement.

    “It will also ensure the optimal use of national resources and enhance the added value of the industrial sector by establishing a joint governance framework to evaluate and allocate resources required by qualified industrial investment opportunities,” it added.

    QatarEnergy currently operates crude oil refining facilities, including natural gas liquids units, as well as petrochemical production complexes and other units in the hydrocarbon value chain, in Mesaieed Industrial City, situated around 45 kilometres south of Doha.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17688383/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen