meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Gaza conflict puts region on edge again

26 December 2023

 

For much of 2023, the defining narrative for the Middle East was one of reconciliation. From Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to rekindle diplomatic relations under a China-brokered deal in March, and Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad being welcomed to an Arab League summit in Riyadh in May, leaders favoured diplomacy over division. 

Not all wounds healed, but even in Yemen an unofficial truce between Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed forces largely held throughout the year.

The Hamas assault on Israel on 7 October and Israel’s response dramatically altered the picture, although whether it will lead to lasting regional change remains to be seen.

Prior to the fighting, few minds in the region were focused on the Palestinian issue, with far more attention being paid to developing commercial and security ties. Saudi Arabia was widely thought to be edging closer to normalisation with Israel, with Israeli ministers starting to visit the kingdom regularly. 

Israel’s Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi was in Riyadh on 1 October for a conference. Tourism Minister Haim Katz visited for a World Tourism Organisation event a week earlier.

Such trips are now off the agenda, with Riyadh focused on leading the Islamic world in condemning Israel. On 11 November, it hosted a joint summit of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Among the attendees was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi – the first visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia since 2012. Raisi used the occasion to invite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud to visit Tehran, a sign that the pre-war trend for reconciliatory diplomacy has not entirely disappeared. 

The Gaza conflict has been particularly difficult to navigate for Abraham Accord signatories Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE. Bahrain suspended economic ties with Israel, but there has been no sign from any of the three of wanting to break off relations altogether.

“How far the war goes will determine how the relationship [with Israel] develops,” said one analyst. 

Some other diplomatic gains are also being made against the backdrop of the war. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani travelled to Manama on 17 November as part of an energetic diplomatic push to bring the Israeli/Palestinian war to an end.

Sheikh Mohammed held talks with Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, and they agreed to revive long-abandoned plans to build a ‘friendship bridge’ between the countries.

Navigating the multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead

Another trend evident in recent years has also continued – namely the efforts by some Gulf powers to dilute their ties with Western allies and build stronger links with China, Russia and others.

A clear sign of this came in August when the UAE and Saudi Arabia were invited to join the Brics grouping of major non-Western economies. They are set to formally join in January.

But in an indication of their desire to maintain links with all sides, Saudi Arabia and the UAE then signed up to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (Imec) initiative at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, in mid-September. 

Navigating the increasingly multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead.

Imminent peril

In other parts of the region, the situation holds more immediate peril. In Egypt, the economy is in a parlous state, with President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi relying on Gulf allies to prop up an economy facing over $29bn of debt repayments in 2024. 

Neighbouring Libya remains divided between rival administrations with their own regional allies. Turkiye and Qatar have supported the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE back General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army in the east. 

In Sudan, the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been fighting President General Abdel-Fattah Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces in a vicious civil war since April. Peace talks in Riyadh in late September failed to deliver a ceasefire, and the UAE has been implicated in the delivery of weapons to the RSF.

Tunisia is quieter, but the economy is in a delicate state and the lurch towards authoritarian dictatorship under President Kais Saied is making observers nervous.

Tensions between Algeria and Morocco are also problematic. The two countries have long been at odds over Western Sahara, but relations have become more strained in recent years, with Algiers severing diplomatic ties in 2021. Algerian coast guards killed two Moroccans in August 2023 when they strayed into Algerian waters on their jet skis – an incident that could have readily escalated. 

In Iraq, political disagreements came to the fore in November when the Supreme Court removed parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi – the country’s most powerful Sunni politician – from office. Iran-backed Iraqi militias have also been flexing their muscle since the Gaza war, launching dozens of attacks on US forces in the country.

Other Iraqi court rulings have also caused disquiet, particularly a September decision by the Constitutional Court to annul a bilateral treaty on sharing the Khor Abdullah waterway with Kuwait. 

Iran meanwhile weathered the protests that erupted in the wake of Marsa Amini’s death in September 2022. Tehran’s emerging challenge is in managing the response of its regional allies to the Gaza conflict. The actions of its other allies
in the region – including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon – could set the tone for the whole region in the year ahead.

Image: Smoke rises after Israeli air strikes on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on 10 October 2023

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11342772/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • PPP schemes to drive Jordan construction

    13 June 2025

     

    There is cause for optimism in Jordan’s construction and infrastructure sectors after the government took steps to implement its Economic Modernisation Vision (EMV) 2023-25.

    The EMV – Amman’s flagship vehicle for its reform proposition – aims to increase average real income per capita by 3% a year, create 1 million jobs and more than double the country’s GDP over 10 years. The programme calls for the private sector to take the lead, accounting for 73% of the total $58.8bn of required investment.

    For the vision to be realised, a large pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) schemes is needed, covering areas such as water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport improvement and road construction.

    Earlier this year, the PPP unit at Jordan’s Ministry of Investment announced that it is targeting seven key PPP projects in 2025.

    Construction projects

    One of the primary components of the PPP initiative is the scheme to build 17 schools under a PPP model. Being overseen by the Ministry of Education, the scheme will be developed using a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer model and will be undertaken in several phases across the country.

    The UAE-backed Marsa Zayed mixed-use project in Aqaba is the other large-scale construction scheme that has made a head start this year and is expected to provide opportunities in the short term. In February this year, Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group selected Dubai-based real estate developer Mag Group to lead the first phase of the project, which is called Riviera Heights.

    The scheme will be developed as a beachfront resort and residential community on the Red Sea coast in Aqaba and will cover an area of 3.2 million square metres. The first phase comprises four residential towers, a marina with 1,260 residential and 117 retail units, a hotel and hotel apartments with a beach club, an old souq marketplace with 50 retail shops, a yacht club and a visitors’ centre. It also includes the restoration of Aqaba’s minaret.

    The other major project progressing in Jordan is the second phase of the Abdali mixed-use project in Amman. In May, the client announced that it had started the infrastructure work for the second phase, paving the way for the project to move forward. 

    The second phase is expected to include constructing a multi-use conference centre that can accommodate 25,000 people, as well as two towers housing hotels, residential apartments, commercial centres and advanced medical facilities.

    Infrastructure improvements

    Jordan is also developing some major infrastructure schemes in the country, most on a PPP basis. The most prominent is the construction of a phosphate railway line, which is being developed by the UAE’s Etihad Rail.

    The detailed study on the railway alignment and requirements for handling potash and phosphate is expected to be completed by the end of this year, followed by the main contract tenders early next year.

    In September last year, Etihad Rail announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding worth $2.3bn with Jordan’s Transport Ministry and local companies to develop the project on a build, operate and maintain basis.

    The other significant project out in the market is the new silica terminal in Aqaba. In May, Jordan’s Aqaba Development Corporation set 25 May as the deadline for firms to express interest in developing the project. 

    The project will be developed on a build, operate and transfer (BOT) basis with a 20-year concession period.

    For airports, a key move came in February, when Jordan extended Airport International Group’s BOT concession of Queen Alia International airport until 2039. The agreement is a crucial step in securing long-term investments in the airport’s infrastructure, expansion and operations.

    Some of the key projects that will be undertaken to boost the airport’s passenger capacity to 18 million annually include installing nine security gates, upgrading the water supply, enhancing security checkpoints, developing a solar farm and conducting studies for runway rehabilitation.

    Another major project that is currently in the market is the construction of a light rail between Amman and Zarqa, which will extend to Queen Alia International airport. 

    In July last year, Jordan’s Hejaz Railway Corporation issued a tender to conduct a feasibility study for the project. The rail line will have a length of about 65 kilometres and the capacity to transport 40,000-50,000 passengers daily.

    Other infrastructure PPP schemes that Jordan says it is negotiating this year include the development of the 15.82km-long King Abdullah II Road, the 14.7km-long Amman-Ajloun toll road, the rehabilitation and toll operation of the first segment of the 42km Amman Development Corridor, a bus rapid transit project and the King Hussein bridge land border crossing terminal project.

    On the back of these schemes, the short-term outlook for Jordan’s construction infrastructure market will be buoyed by a confluence of positive opportunities that promise to invigorate what have been largely dormant construction and infrastructure sectors in the past decade. 

    With the government’s commitment to large-scale infrastructure and construction projects, there is a renewed sense of optimism among investors and stakeholders. The anticipated influx of foreign direct investment, coupled with strategic partnerships in public-private ventures, is set to create a ripple effect that will stimulate job creation and enhance Jordan’s economy.

    MEED’s July 2025 report on Jordan also includes: 

    > ECONOMY: Jordan economy nears inflection point
    > GAS: Jordan pushes ahead with gas plans
    > WATER: Record-breaking year for Jordan’s water sector

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14065176/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • African Development Bank backs Egypt solar scheme

    13 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has approved a financing package worth up to $184.1m to support the development of the Obelisk solar photovoltaic (PV) project in Egypt’s Qena Governorate.

    The power project is the largest solar power plant in Africa and comprises a 1GW solar plant, along with a 200 megawatt-hour (MWh) battery energy storage system.

    The total estimated investment in the project will be more than $590m.

    The financing package includes $125.5m from AfDB’s ordinary resources, in addition to concessional funding of $20m from the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa and $18.6m from the Canada-African Development Bank Climate Fund.

    An additional $20m is provided by the Clean Technology Fund under Climate Investment Funds, complemented by further investments from development finance institutions.

    The Obelisk project will encompass design, construction, operation and maintenance of a PV facility.

    The project has been granted a Golden Licence through Egypt’s Nexus of Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) platform due to its importance in addressing energy shortages and advancing the country’s energy transition efforts.

    Egypt’s Minister of Planning, Economic Development and International Cooperation Rania Al-Mashat stated: “The Obelisk solar project is another important milestone for Egypt under the energy pillar of the NWFE programme, which has, since its launch in November 2022 at Cop27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, delivered 4.2GW of privately financed renewable energy investments, worth about $4bn, with the support of partners such as the Africa Development Bank.

    “The goal of NWFE’s energy pillar is to add 10GW of renewable energy capacity with investments of approximately $10bn and phase out 5GW of fossil fuel power generation by 2030.”

    The Obelisk project will be fully operational in Q3 2026 and is expected to produce 2,772GW of electricity annually. In early May, MEED reported that Norwegian renewable energy firm Scatec had commenced construction on the first phase of its 1.1GW Obelisk solar and 100MW/200MWh battery energy storage project.

    It is expected to reduce CO₂ emissions by around 1 million tonnes each year and create 4,000 jobs during the construction phase, with 50 permanent anticipated positions once operational.

    Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company will purchase all generated power from the project under a 25-year agreement.

    African Development Bank power, energy, climate and green growth vice-president Kevin Kariuki stated: “Obelisk is another landmark development under NWFE that leverages on Egypt’s and the African Development Bank’s leadership as well as commitment to harnessing the country’s renewable energy to enhance the resilience of the country’s energy supply to meet its fast-growing energy demand sustainably.

    “This project also contributes to Egypt’s ambition of producing 42% of its power generation capacity from renewable energy sources by 2030 while spurring economic growth and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

    In January 2025, the Mission 300 programme, an initiative launched by the World Bank and the AfDB, secured $8bn in funding pledges.

    The programme aims to supply electricity to 300 million people across Africa by 2030.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14065059/main.jpg
  • UCC and Ashghal start 3D printing schools

    13 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The local UCC Holding, in partnership with the Public Works Authority (Ashghal), has commenced the printing phase of the 3D Printed Schools Project.

    The initiative involves building two public schools, each spanning 20,000 square metres.

    UCC Holding has described it as the world’s largest construction project using 3D printing technology – reportedly 40 times bigger than the largest 3D-printed building constructed to date.

    The schools are part of the second package of the Qatar Schools Development Programme, delivered under a public-private partnership model, which includes 14 schools in total.

    The two schools are being designed as two-storey buildings on plots measuring 100 metres by 100 metres each.

    To achieve this scale, UCC Holding engaged COBOD, a 3D construction printing company based in Denmark, to supply two customised BODXL printers.

    Each printer measures 50 metres in length, 30 metres in width and 15 metres in height, approximately the size of a Boeing 737 hangar.

    After completing preparation, which included site development, equipment assembly and operational simulations, printing operations have now officially begun.

    UCC Holding has put together a 3D construction team comprising architects, civil engineers, material scientists and printer technicians.

    Over the past eight months, this team has conducted more than 100 full-scale test prints using a BOD2 printer at a dedicated trial site in Doha.

    In May 2025, the team completed training alongside COBOD engineers. The training covered printer operation, print sequencing, structural layering strategies and live quality control.

    The schools’ design is inspired by Qatar’s natural desert formations, with curved walls resembling sand dunes.

    The schools are expected to be completed by the end of 2025.

    Earlier this year, Ashghal began construction of the Qatar Sidra Academy project in Education City, which will accommodate nearly 1,800 students.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14065048/main.jpg
  • Morocco appoints contractors for Casablanca stadium construction

    13 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A joint venture of local contractors Travaux Generaux de Construction de Casablanca (TGCC) and Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc (SGTM) has been awarded the $320m contract for the next stage of construction works for the Grand Stade Hassan II stadium, which will serve as one of the venues for the 2030 Fifa World Cup tournament.

    The two contractors submitted the only offer ahead of the tender deadline on 10 June.

    The contract duration will be 30 months from the start of construction.

    SGTM won a $35m contract last year to undertake the early works.

    The stadium is being built on a 100-hectare site in the El-Mansouria area of Benslimane Province, 38 kilometres north of Casablanca.

    In March last year, MEED reported that Morocco had appointed US-based architectural firm Populous and France's Oualalou+Choi to design the stadium.

    The construction works are expected to be completed by 2028.

    State-owned fund Caisse de Depot et de Gestion (CDG) signed a deal worth about $500m to finance the stadium’s construction.

    Six other stadiums will be renovated in the cities of Agadir, Casablanca, Fez, Marrakech, Rabat and Tangier, to host the African Cup of Nations in 2025 and the 2030 Fifa World Cup.

    Morocco will be the second African country to host the World Cup after South Africa in 2010. It is hosting the tournament jointly with Spain and Portugal.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14065044/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • World Bank’s nuclear U-turn is an opportunity for Middle East projects

    13 June 2025

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    The World Bank’s decision to end its 65-year ban on financing nuclear power projects is a significant policy change and has the potential to help planned nuclear projects across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region move forward.

    On 11 June, World Bank President Ajay Banga confirmed the policy revision, which recognises a commonly held view that nuclear energy is an important part of the solution for meeting climate targets and rising electricity demand.

    Planned nuclear projects in the region, like those elsewhere in the world, face complex challenges that include regulatory hurdles, funding, delivery and geopolitics.

    While these issues apply to all projects in the region, the financial challenges differ. For countries such as Egypt and Jordan, the challenge is securing affordable capital for such large-scale projects. In Egypt’s case, this problem was overcome with government support from Russia.

    For the wealthier GCC states, the main challenge is not funding, but rather securing the necessary regulatory approvals, managing the complexities of delivering nuclear projects and attracting the right international partners.

    The World Bank’s return to nuclear may help address both these obstacles. For countries that need funding support, it can be a direct lender. For others, it can be a useful partner offering validation and technical expertise.

    The World Bank could also provide a further catalyst for the development of small modular reactors. Its role as a lender could be crucial in making these projects financially viable. A new source of financing, particularly at the early project development stage, could prove vital in moving these plans into actual projects.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14065033/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman