meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Gaza conflict puts region on edge again

26 December 2023

 

For much of 2023, the defining narrative for the Middle East was one of reconciliation. From Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to rekindle diplomatic relations under a China-brokered deal in March, and Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad being welcomed to an Arab League summit in Riyadh in May, leaders favoured diplomacy over division. 

Not all wounds healed, but even in Yemen an unofficial truce between Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed forces largely held throughout the year.

The Hamas assault on Israel on 7 October and Israel’s response dramatically altered the picture, although whether it will lead to lasting regional change remains to be seen.

Prior to the fighting, few minds in the region were focused on the Palestinian issue, with far more attention being paid to developing commercial and security ties. Saudi Arabia was widely thought to be edging closer to normalisation with Israel, with Israeli ministers starting to visit the kingdom regularly. 

Israel’s Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi was in Riyadh on 1 October for a conference. Tourism Minister Haim Katz visited for a World Tourism Organisation event a week earlier.

Such trips are now off the agenda, with Riyadh focused on leading the Islamic world in condemning Israel. On 11 November, it hosted a joint summit of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Among the attendees was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi – the first visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia since 2012. Raisi used the occasion to invite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud to visit Tehran, a sign that the pre-war trend for reconciliatory diplomacy has not entirely disappeared. 

The Gaza conflict has been particularly difficult to navigate for Abraham Accord signatories Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE. Bahrain suspended economic ties with Israel, but there has been no sign from any of the three of wanting to break off relations altogether.

“How far the war goes will determine how the relationship [with Israel] develops,” said one analyst. 

Some other diplomatic gains are also being made against the backdrop of the war. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani travelled to Manama on 17 November as part of an energetic diplomatic push to bring the Israeli/Palestinian war to an end.

Sheikh Mohammed held talks with Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, and they agreed to revive long-abandoned plans to build a ‘friendship bridge’ between the countries.

Navigating the multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead

Another trend evident in recent years has also continued – namely the efforts by some Gulf powers to dilute their ties with Western allies and build stronger links with China, Russia and others.

A clear sign of this came in August when the UAE and Saudi Arabia were invited to join the Brics grouping of major non-Western economies. They are set to formally join in January.

But in an indication of their desire to maintain links with all sides, Saudi Arabia and the UAE then signed up to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (Imec) initiative at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, in mid-September. 

Navigating the increasingly multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead.

Imminent peril

In other parts of the region, the situation holds more immediate peril. In Egypt, the economy is in a parlous state, with President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi relying on Gulf allies to prop up an economy facing over $29bn of debt repayments in 2024. 

Neighbouring Libya remains divided between rival administrations with their own regional allies. Turkiye and Qatar have supported the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE back General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army in the east. 

In Sudan, the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been fighting President General Abdel-Fattah Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces in a vicious civil war since April. Peace talks in Riyadh in late September failed to deliver a ceasefire, and the UAE has been implicated in the delivery of weapons to the RSF.

Tunisia is quieter, but the economy is in a delicate state and the lurch towards authoritarian dictatorship under President Kais Saied is making observers nervous.

Tensions between Algeria and Morocco are also problematic. The two countries have long been at odds over Western Sahara, but relations have become more strained in recent years, with Algiers severing diplomatic ties in 2021. Algerian coast guards killed two Moroccans in August 2023 when they strayed into Algerian waters on their jet skis – an incident that could have readily escalated. 

In Iraq, political disagreements came to the fore in November when the Supreme Court removed parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi – the country’s most powerful Sunni politician – from office. Iran-backed Iraqi militias have also been flexing their muscle since the Gaza war, launching dozens of attacks on US forces in the country.

Other Iraqi court rulings have also caused disquiet, particularly a September decision by the Constitutional Court to annul a bilateral treaty on sharing the Khor Abdullah waterway with Kuwait. 

Iran meanwhile weathered the protests that erupted in the wake of Marsa Amini’s death in September 2022. Tehran’s emerging challenge is in managing the response of its regional allies to the Gaza conflict. The actions of its other allies
in the region – including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon – could set the tone for the whole region in the year ahead.

Image: Smoke rises after Israeli air strikes on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on 10 October 2023

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11342772/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Chinese contractor appointed for 500MW Oman solar plant

    22 July 2026

    China's Shanxi Installation Group has secured an estimated $222m engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the 500MW Al-Kamil 1 solar independent power project (IPP) in Oman.

    In a filing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, the company said the deal marks its first major project in the Middle East.

    The contract covers the EPC, grid connection, testing and commissioning of the utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant, as well as 2.5 years of operations and maintenance. 

    A consortium comprising France's EDF Power Solutions, Oman National Engineering & Investment Company and OQ Alternative Energy signed the power purchase agreement for the project with Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP) in June.

    Nama PWP is the sole procurer of new electricity generation capacity in Oman.

    The Al-Kamil 1 solar IPP is EDF Power Solutions' third renewable energy project in Oman, following the 500MW Manah 1 solar PV IPP and the 120MW JBB wind IPP.

    As MEED has previously reported, the Al-Kamil 1 project is part of Nama PWP's renewable energy development pipeline, which also includes the 400MW Sinaw and 280MW Marsa solar IPPs.

    Nama PWP is currently tendering supervisory services for the Marsa IPP, with a bid submission deadline of 26 July.

    The pipeline also comprises the 800MW Mahout and 300MW Duqm 2 wind IPPs, both targeted for commissioning between 2027 and 2029.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17725741/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Fluor wins feed contract for key Bahrain aromatics facility

    22 July 2026

    Bahrain’s Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company (GPIC) has awarded US-based consultant Fluor a contract for front-end engineering and design (feed) on an aromatics facility in the country.

    The project will be an expansion of GPIC’s existing petrochemicals facility in Bahrain’s downstream complex in Sitra, which produces ammonia, urea and methanol.

    The new aromatics facility will utilise “commercially-proven process technologies” to produce approximately 1.2 million metric tonnes a year (t/y) of paraxylene and 500,000 metric t/y of benzene, Texas-headquartered Fluor said.

    Paraxylene and benzene are critical building blocks for plastics, polyester fibers and packaging materials, supporting global demand for high‑performance consumer and industrial products.

    Founded in 1979, GPIC is a joint venture of Bahraini state energy enterprise Bapco Energies, known at the time as Nogaholding; chemicals giant Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic); and Petrochemical Industries Company – a subsidiary of state energy conglomerate Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. The three partners hold equal stakes of 33.3% in GPIC.

    GPIC utilises locally available natural gas as feedstock to manufacture high-quality chemicals and fertilisers for domestic consumption and export, including 1,200 metric tonnes a day (t/d) of ammonia, 1,200 metric t/d of methanol and 1,700 metric t/d of granular urea.

    ALSO READ: Bahrain taps consultants for studying use of nuclear power

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17725737/main1255.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Firms submit bids for second Hassyan SWRO pipeline contract

    22 July 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has received bids from three contractors for a second pipeline contract relating to the Hassyan seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) network expansion.

    Project two requires contractors to supply, install, test and commission glass-reinforced epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipelines and associated works for the plant's phase two network.

    Local firm Tristar Engineering & Construction submitted the lowest offer of AED792.59m ($215.8m), according to tender results published by the state utility.

    Green Oasis General Contracting (UAE) submitted a bid of AED800.02m ($217.8m) and Wade Adams Contracting (UAE) made the other compliant offer of AED989.65m ($269.5m).

    In January, Dewa announced that construction of the 180-million-imperial-gallon-a-day phase one of the Hassyan SWRO independent water project was 90% complete.

    Earlier in July, eight contractors submitted bids for project one of the Hassyan pipeline network expansion.

    Dewa also has a third contract out for tender for GRE water transmission pipeline work related to the Hassyan SWRO phase two network.

    Project three was tendered on 26 January and has a bid submission deadline of 29 July.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17723861/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Riyadh seeks contractors for Expo Icon structure

    22 July 2026

     

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), which is tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has asked contractors to express interest in the construction of the Icon, one of the key landmarks at the site.

    The structure will be located at the entrance of the Expo 2030 Riyadh site, within the Collaboration Precinct.

    ERC issued the expressions of interest notice on 20 July. The deadline for submissions of interest is 23 July.

    The structure will be connected to the metro station and will serve as a gateway to the event.

    It will be 66 metres tall and will comprise an observation platform, food and beverage outlets and other features.

    The total built-up area will be approximately 16,279 square metres and it will be able to accommodate more than 1,450 visitors an hour during the event.

    The contract duration is 29 months from the start of construction.

    ERC tendered the contract for the construction of the Saudi Arabia pavilion at the site in May.

    The pavilion is a major asset located within the venue's KSA District, on the eastern side of the Expo 2030 Riyadh masterplan, within the Loop of Nations district.

    Construction progress

    The tendering of the pavilion structure followed swift progress on the site’s infrastructure development works.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site to local firm Al-Yamama Company.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners. That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, and electric vehicle charging stations.

    The overall infrastructure works – covering the construction of main utilities and civil works at Expo 2030 Riyadh – are split into three packages:

    • Lot 1 covers the main utilities corridor;
    • Lot 2 includes the northern cluster of the nature corridor;
    • Lot 3 comprises the southern cluster of the nature corridor. 

    The masterplan encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to landmarks within Riyadh.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17723204/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • EtihadWE tenders $150m Ajman substation project

    21 July 2026

    The UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) has tendered a contract to build three new substations in Ajman.

    Estimated to cost $150m, the project involves the construction of three new 132/11kV substations in the Bahya, Rumaila and Liwara districts. It also includes associated 132kV underground cabling works to connect the substations to the existing transmission network.

    The bid submission deadline is 10 August.

    According to tender documents, the project will add distribution capacity to support load growth and improve the security of electricity supply in the emirate.

    The scope of work includes site preparation, construction of three substation buildings and foundations, installation of 132kV GIS/AIS switchgear, 132/11kV power transformers and 11kV switchgear, as well as protection, control, Scada and telecommunications systems.

    Etihad WE is responsible for electricity and water services in Ajman, Umm Al-Quwain, Ras Al-Khaimah, Fujairah and parts of Sharjah. The utility has been investing in new substations and transmission infrastructure as electricity demand continues to increase across the Northern Emirates.

    This includes a 132/33/11kV substation project on Al-Marjan Island in Ras Al-Khaimah. Construction work is ongoing on the project, with Maetal Dubai serving as the main contractor.

    EtihadWE is also finalising a new masterplan that will cover network capacity requirements and expansion priorities for the next 10 to 15 years.

    In June, Abdulla Al-Khemeiri, chief operations officer, told MEED: “We are currently reviewing it, and we need to obtain shareholder approval first. Once it is approved, it will be released, hopefully by the end of the year.” 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17710661/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall