meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Gaza conflict puts region on edge again

26 December 2023

 

For much of 2023, the defining narrative for the Middle East was one of reconciliation. From Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to rekindle diplomatic relations under a China-brokered deal in March, and Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad being welcomed to an Arab League summit in Riyadh in May, leaders favoured diplomacy over division. 

Not all wounds healed, but even in Yemen an unofficial truce between Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed forces largely held throughout the year.

The Hamas assault on Israel on 7 October and Israel’s response dramatically altered the picture, although whether it will lead to lasting regional change remains to be seen.

Prior to the fighting, few minds in the region were focused on the Palestinian issue, with far more attention being paid to developing commercial and security ties. Saudi Arabia was widely thought to be edging closer to normalisation with Israel, with Israeli ministers starting to visit the kingdom regularly. 

Israel’s Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi was in Riyadh on 1 October for a conference. Tourism Minister Haim Katz visited for a World Tourism Organisation event a week earlier.

Such trips are now off the agenda, with Riyadh focused on leading the Islamic world in condemning Israel. On 11 November, it hosted a joint summit of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Among the attendees was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi – the first visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia since 2012. Raisi used the occasion to invite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud to visit Tehran, a sign that the pre-war trend for reconciliatory diplomacy has not entirely disappeared. 

The Gaza conflict has been particularly difficult to navigate for Abraham Accord signatories Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE. Bahrain suspended economic ties with Israel, but there has been no sign from any of the three of wanting to break off relations altogether.

“How far the war goes will determine how the relationship [with Israel] develops,” said one analyst. 

Some other diplomatic gains are also being made against the backdrop of the war. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani travelled to Manama on 17 November as part of an energetic diplomatic push to bring the Israeli/Palestinian war to an end.

Sheikh Mohammed held talks with Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, and they agreed to revive long-abandoned plans to build a ‘friendship bridge’ between the countries.

Navigating the multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead

Another trend evident in recent years has also continued – namely the efforts by some Gulf powers to dilute their ties with Western allies and build stronger links with China, Russia and others.

A clear sign of this came in August when the UAE and Saudi Arabia were invited to join the Brics grouping of major non-Western economies. They are set to formally join in January.

But in an indication of their desire to maintain links with all sides, Saudi Arabia and the UAE then signed up to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (Imec) initiative at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, in mid-September. 

Navigating the increasingly multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead.

Imminent peril

In other parts of the region, the situation holds more immediate peril. In Egypt, the economy is in a parlous state, with President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi relying on Gulf allies to prop up an economy facing over $29bn of debt repayments in 2024. 

Neighbouring Libya remains divided between rival administrations with their own regional allies. Turkiye and Qatar have supported the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE back General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army in the east. 

In Sudan, the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been fighting President General Abdel-Fattah Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces in a vicious civil war since April. Peace talks in Riyadh in late September failed to deliver a ceasefire, and the UAE has been implicated in the delivery of weapons to the RSF.

Tunisia is quieter, but the economy is in a delicate state and the lurch towards authoritarian dictatorship under President Kais Saied is making observers nervous.

Tensions between Algeria and Morocco are also problematic. The two countries have long been at odds over Western Sahara, but relations have become more strained in recent years, with Algiers severing diplomatic ties in 2021. Algerian coast guards killed two Moroccans in August 2023 when they strayed into Algerian waters on their jet skis – an incident that could have readily escalated. 

In Iraq, political disagreements came to the fore in November when the Supreme Court removed parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi – the country’s most powerful Sunni politician – from office. Iran-backed Iraqi militias have also been flexing their muscle since the Gaza war, launching dozens of attacks on US forces in the country.

Other Iraqi court rulings have also caused disquiet, particularly a September decision by the Constitutional Court to annul a bilateral treaty on sharing the Khor Abdullah waterway with Kuwait. 

Iran meanwhile weathered the protests that erupted in the wake of Marsa Amini’s death in September 2022. Tehran’s emerging challenge is in managing the response of its regional allies to the Gaza conflict. The actions of its other allies
in the region – including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon – could set the tone for the whole region in the year ahead.

Image: Smoke rises after Israeli air strikes on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on 10 October 2023

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11342772/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Engie completes refinancing of Oman power plants

    5 November 2026

    French developer Engie has announced that it has reached financial close on the refinancing of the Sohar 2 and Barka 3 independent power projects (IPPs) in Oman.

    The transaction follows 15-year extensions to the plants’ power purchase agreements (PPAs) in March, securing their long-term operations through to 2043.

    As previously reported by MEED, the new agreements for the 750MW Sohar 2 and 750MW Barka 3 IPPs will take effect on 1 April 2028. 

    The refinancing aligns the projects’ debt profiles with the extended PPA terms and establishes a long-term financing framework to support future capital expenditure. This includes refurbishment works aimed at improving the reliability and long-term performance of both assets.

    Al-Batinah Power Company and Al-Suwadi Power Company operate the Sohar 2 and Barka 3 power plants, respectively.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Nama PWP signed the original PPA for the Barka 3 project in 2010 with a consortium led by Gaz de France (GDF) Suez under a special purpose vehicle called Al-Suwadi Power Company.

    The shareholders comprised GDF Suez (46%), Bahwan Engineering Company (22%), Shikoku Electric Power Corporation (11%), Sojitz Corporation (11%)  and the Public Authority for Social Insurance (10%).

    In 2015, GDF Suez was rebranded as Engie following a strategic shift towards low-carbon energy and utilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21170932/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Aramco seeks to expand East-West crude pipeline

    5 November 2026

    Saudi Aramco is planning to expand its East-West oil pipeline network, aiming to strengthen the kingdom’s ability to transport crude oil while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

    Aramco operates the 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline from Abqaiq in the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. The pipeline currently has an oil transportation capacity of 7 million barrels a day (b/d).

    The pipeline was targeted by Houthi missiles in September and by Iran in April. Aramco resumed crude oil exports through the pipeline at the start of October.

    “With regard to the expansion to our East-West pipeline and the additional networks that we are building, this work has already started,” Amin Nasser, Aramco’s president and CEO, told analysts on a call following the company’s announcement of its Q3 2026 financial results on 3 November.

    Nasser had previously said in an interview with Al Arabiya Business that Aramco had begun engineering work on the East-West pipeline expansion project during the early stages of the US-Iran conflict.

    In October, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman said that the kingdom was looking to expand its crude oil export capacity by pipeline to as much as 10 million b/d. The plans would involve repurposing a domestic gas pipeline and investing in the existing East-West pipeline network.

    Aramco uses three main routes to export crude oil: the Gulf, via the Strait of Hormuz; the Red Sea, via the Bab El-Mandeb strait; and the Mediterranean, via Sidi Kerir in Egypt. The company also uses overseas oil-storage facilities in South Korea, Japan, the Netherlands and Sidi Kerir, and is working with partners to expand storage capacity, particularly in Asia.

    Aramco is also undertaking engineering work on additional export routes, Nasser said.

    He added that the company would not disclose details of the proposed routes until it made final investment decisions.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21156806/main0615.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • SAR tenders railway track design framework

    5 November 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has invited consultants to bid by 14 December for a framework agreement covering railway track design services.

    The state-owned operator is seeking to accelerate the delivery of smaller projects across its network.

    SAR has scheduled a pre-tender meeting for 12 November.

    Under the framework, SAR will appoint a panel of specialist consultants to carry out design work through work orders or task orders issued as required. This will remove the need for SAR to launch a separate tender for each project.

    SAR said a long-term contract with several specialist service providers would benefit all parties, particularly for smaller projects.

    SAR will detail the required works and communicate them to the selected consultants through each work order or task order.

    The scope covers engineering studies, as well as concept, preliminary and detailed design for railway infrastructure. Services will include surveys, alignment design, geotechnical assessments, cost estimation and construction support.

    Consultants will be expected to produce drawings, reports, risk registers, bills of quantities and other design documentation. All deliverables must comply with SAR standards for UIC 60 track systems and associated infrastructure.

    SAR said it is seeking partnerships with competent consultants to supply track and track infrastructure design services under the terms of the tender document.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21168500/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aramco commissions Zuluf field oil increment project

    5 November 2026

    Saudi Aramco has announced the start of oil production at the Zuluf oil increment project in Saudi Arabia, on which it is estimated to have spent about $7bn in 2022.

    The Saudi energy company made the announcement as part of its third-quarter 2026 financial results, in which it reported adjusted net income of $31.2bn, up 9% year on year.

    The Zuluf oil increment project involved substantial onshore and offshore work at the field, located in the Gulf about 40 kilometres off Saudi Arabia’s northeastern coast.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) scope was divided into two onshore packages and five offshore packages.

    Aramco selected Japan’s JGC Holdings Corporation in May 2022 for the two main onshore packages of the Zuluf field development. Together, the packages were estimated to be worth up to $3.5bn.

    Package 1 was estimated to be the larger of the two onshore packages, with a contract value of about $2bn-$2.5bn. It covered EPC work to build hydrocarbon-processing facilities for the Zuluf development, principally an onshore gas-oil separation plant.

    Package 2 covered utilities and water-injection facilities and was estimated to be worth about $1bn.

    Before awarding the onshore contracts, Aramco had awarded more than $4bn of contracts across five main offshore engineering, procurement, construction and installation packages. The awards went to US-headquartered McDermott International; a consortium of India’s Larsen & Toubro Hydrocarbon Engineering and UK-headquartered Subsea7; and Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Energy, then known as National Petroleum Construction Company.

    Since the 2022 EPC awards, Aramco has invested further in maintaining and upgrading infrastructure at the Zuluf field. The work supports the company’s objective of maintaining its maximum sustained crude oil production capacity at 12 million barrels a day (b/d).

    Other upstream projects

    In its Q3 2026 results statement, Aramco also announced EPC progress on other key upstream oil and gas projects, including:

    Jafurah phase two – Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined total of about $12.4bn, on 30 June 2024 for the second expansion phase of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme in the Eastern Province.

    The second phase aims to raise the field’s processing potential to up to 2 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of raw gas. The EPC scope of work includes constructing gas compression facilities and associated pipelines, and expanding the Jafurah gas plant, including the construction of gas processing trains, utilities, sulphur and export facilities, Aramco said in a statement.

    Fadhili gas plant expansion – Through the estimated $7.7bn project, Aramco aims to increase the Fadhili gas plant’s processing capacity from 2.5 billion cf/d to up to 4 billion cf/d. The expansion includes three new processing trains, each with a capacity of 500 million cf/d.

    Aramco awarded contracts for four main EPC packages of the Fadhili gas plant expansion project in April 2024 to South Korean contractors Samsung E&A and GS Engineering & Construction and Saudi contractor Nesma & Partners.

    Dammam development project – The project represents the second development phase of the Dammam field. Its objective is to install infrastructure, including pipelines, trunklines and pumps, to increase the field’s crude oil production capacity by 25,000 b/d and 50,000 b/d in separate phases.

    Al-Khobar-based Denys Arabia won the main EPC contract for the Dammam second field development phase in July 2024. The contract was estimated to be worth more than $500m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21156386/main4222.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen
  • BP and PetroChina cut budgets for Iraq oil projects

    5 November 2026

     

    London-headquartered BP and PetroChina have agreed with Turkish contractor Tekfen to reduce the monthly allocated budgets for two upstream oil projects at the Rumaila field, according to industry sources.

    Rumaila Operating Organisation (ROO) operates the Rumaila field.

    ROO is a joint venture formed by state-owned Basra Oil Company; Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation (Somo); and Basra Energy Company, a joint venture owned by UK-based oil company BP and PetroChina.

    PetroChina is the listed arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation.

    As part of the agreement between ROO and Tekfen, progress on the projects will continue at a slower pace.

    The two projects are both also suffering from delays due to problems importing equipment through the Strait of Hormuz, sources said.

    One source said: “These projects are really barely alive. They are progressing very slowly after the monthly budgets were cut by the client. The project is still continuing, but at a slow pace. The budgets are very limited.”

    Sources said that although the monthly budget payments were reduced, they were still being made on time.

    Most of the problems that the projects at the oil field are facing are connected to the regional war, which started on 28 February when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

    One source said: “The budget issues and financial problems are significant. There are also security concerns connected to reported US plans for a potential strategic nuclear strike on Iran and how that might impact operations at the Rumaila field, which is only around 60 kilometres from the Iranian border.”

    The two projects have a combined value of less than $100m, and the project scopes include developing new facilities as well as upgrading and repairing existing upstream infrastructure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21153848/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp