Gaza conflict puts region on edge again
26 December 2023
For much of 2023, the defining narrative for the Middle East was one of reconciliation. From Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to rekindle diplomatic relations under a China-brokered deal in March, and Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad being welcomed to an Arab League summit in Riyadh in May, leaders favoured diplomacy over division.
Not all wounds healed, but even in Yemen an unofficial truce between Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed forces largely held throughout the year.
The Hamas assault on Israel on 7 October and Israel’s response dramatically altered the picture, although whether it will lead to lasting regional change remains to be seen.
Prior to the fighting, few minds in the region were focused on the Palestinian issue, with far more attention being paid to developing commercial and security ties. Saudi Arabia was widely thought to be edging closer to normalisation with Israel, with Israeli ministers starting to visit the kingdom regularly.
Israel’s Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi was in Riyadh on 1 October for a conference. Tourism Minister Haim Katz visited for a World Tourism Organisation event a week earlier.
Such trips are now off the agenda, with Riyadh focused on leading the Islamic world in condemning Israel. On 11 November, it hosted a joint summit of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Among the attendees was Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi – the first visit by an Iranian president to Saudi Arabia since 2012. Raisi used the occasion to invite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud to visit Tehran, a sign that the pre-war trend for reconciliatory diplomacy has not entirely disappeared.
The Gaza conflict has been particularly difficult to navigate for Abraham Accord signatories Bahrain, Morocco and the UAE. Bahrain suspended economic ties with Israel, but there has been no sign from any of the three of wanting to break off relations altogether.
“How far the war goes will determine how the relationship [with Israel] develops,” said one analyst.
Some other diplomatic gains are also being made against the backdrop of the war. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani travelled to Manama on 17 November as part of an energetic diplomatic push to bring the Israeli/Palestinian war to an end.
Sheikh Mohammed held talks with Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, and they agreed to revive long-abandoned plans to build a ‘friendship bridge’ between the countries.
Navigating the multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead
Another trend evident in recent years has also continued – namely the efforts by some Gulf powers to dilute their ties with Western allies and build stronger links with China, Russia and others.
A clear sign of this came in August when the UAE and Saudi Arabia were invited to join the Brics grouping of major non-Western economies. They are set to formally join in January.
But in an indication of their desire to maintain links with all sides, Saudi Arabia and the UAE then signed up to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (Imec) initiative at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, in mid-September.
Navigating the increasingly multi-polar world will remain a key challenge for Gulf powers in the year ahead.
Imminent peril
In other parts of the region, the situation holds more immediate peril. In Egypt, the economy is in a parlous state, with President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi relying on Gulf allies to prop up an economy facing over $29bn of debt repayments in 2024.
Neighbouring Libya remains divided between rival administrations with their own regional allies. Turkiye and Qatar have supported the Tripoli-based government of Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE back General Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army in the east.
In Sudan, the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been fighting President General Abdel-Fattah Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces in a vicious civil war since April. Peace talks in Riyadh in late September failed to deliver a ceasefire, and the UAE has been implicated in the delivery of weapons to the RSF.
Tunisia is quieter, but the economy is in a delicate state and the lurch towards authoritarian dictatorship under President Kais Saied is making observers nervous.
Tensions between Algeria and Morocco are also problematic. The two countries have long been at odds over Western Sahara, but relations have become more strained in recent years, with Algiers severing diplomatic ties in 2021. Algerian coast guards killed two Moroccans in August 2023 when they strayed into Algerian waters on their jet skis – an incident that could have readily escalated.
In Iraq, political disagreements came to the fore in November when the Supreme Court removed parliamentary speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi – the country’s most powerful Sunni politician – from office. Iran-backed Iraqi militias have also been flexing their muscle since the Gaza war, launching dozens of attacks on US forces in the country.
Other Iraqi court rulings have also caused disquiet, particularly a September decision by the Constitutional Court to annul a bilateral treaty on sharing the Khor Abdullah waterway with Kuwait.
Iran meanwhile weathered the protests that erupted in the wake of Marsa Amini’s death in September 2022. Tehran’s emerging challenge is in managing the response of its regional allies to the Gaza conflict. The actions of its other allies
in the region – including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon – could set the tone for the whole region in the year ahead.
Image: Smoke rises after Israeli air strikes on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on 10 October 2023
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Bahri signs deal for two offshore vessels with Dubai shipyard16 July 2026
Bahri Logistics, a division of Saudi Arabia’s national shipping company Bahri, has placed an order for the construction of two advanced offshore support vessels with Dubai-based Grandweld Shipyard.
Grandweld will custom-build the two vessels to meet Bahri’s operational requirements for offshore activities at Ras Tanura port in Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s busiest oil and gas bunkering and export hubs.
The vessels will be built at Grandweld’s shipyard in Dubai Maritime City and are expected to be delivered in August, following a 12-month building period.
The vessels will feature the latest navigation and safety technologies. They are designed to perform multiple offshore support functions, including vessel clearance, crew changes and emergency response, while adhering to international maritime standards.
The newbuild agreement with Grandweld aligns with Bahri’s broader strategy “to modernise its fleet, enhance technical capabilities, and adopt more energy-efficient and environmentally responsible designs”.
“Through continued investments in technology, infrastructure and fleet diversification, Bahri Logistics aims to deliver smarter, more sustainable logistics solutions that contribute to the Saudi Green Initiative and the kingdom’s long-term economic diversification goals,” the Saudi Stock Exchange-listed (Tadawul) company said in a statement.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17687877/main.jpg -
Qatar seeks to establish new industrial area in Mesaieed16 July 2026
Qatar’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry and state enterprise QatarEnergy have signed an agreement to cooperate on evaluating and allocating hydrocarbon-derived resources to support the establishment of a new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.
Under the terms of reference signed between the parties, QatarEnergy will implement a governance mechanism for the allocation of hydrocarbon-derived feedstock to qualifying industrial investment opportunities for the proposed new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.
“The agreed terms of reference stipulate the evaluation and allocation of hydrocarbon-derived resources, natural gas, power and related natural resources to downstream derivative industrial investment opportunities,” QatarEnergy said in a statement.
“It will also ensure the optimal use of national resources and enhance the added value of the industrial sector by establishing a joint governance framework to evaluate and allocate resources required by qualified industrial investment opportunities,” it added.
QatarEnergy currently operates crude oil refining facilities, including natural gas liquids units, as well as petrochemical production complexes and other units in the hydrocarbon value chain, in Mesaieed Industrial City, situated around 45 kilometres south of Doha.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17688383/main.jpg -
Egypt intensifies efforts to create petroleum stockpile16 July 2026
Egypt is intensifying its efforts to secure and maintain a sufficient strategic stockpile of petroleum products, according to a statement from the country’s cabinet and its Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.
The Egyptian government is closely monitoring regional developments and their potential repercussions on the energy sector, according to the statement.
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that the government is implementing flexible plans and looking at alternative scenarios so that it can respond quickly to emergencies while ensuring the uninterrupted supply of fuel to citizens and key industrial sectors.
Egypt is intensifying its efforts to build up strategic stockpiles amid heightened uncertainty about future global oil and gas supplies.
Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, there has been significant disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key transit route for oil and gas exports from the Middle East.
On top of this, the regional war has involved multiple direct attacks on refineries in the GCC, increasing uncertainty about the future availability of refined products.
Aside from Motafa Madbouly, the meeting was also attended by Hassan Abdullah, who is governor of the Central Bank, Minister of Finance Ahmed Koguk and Minister of Petroleum and Minerals Karim Badawi.
During the meeting, Badawi gave a presentation on the available quantities of different petroleum products and explained the details of the procedures currently being implemented to increase the strategic stock of petroleum products.
A review of the coordination framework and joint work between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank also took place during the meeting.
This was in order to ensure the management of financial tools needed to strengthen the country’s strategic inventory, according to the statement.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17685719/main.jpg -
Tunisia orders $86m of trainsets from Chinese supplier16 July 2026
Tunisian public transport operator Transtu has finalised an $86m agreement with China’s CRRC Nanjing Puzhen.
CRRC will supply 18 new electric trainsets for the capital’s northern suburban rail network, which links Tunis to La Goulette and La Marsa.
Each new trainset will be air-conditioned and capable of carrying up to 400 passengers, including 90 seated riders, with a top speed of 100 km/h. Once operational, the trains are expected to run at six-minute intervals during rush hour and every 12 minutes during off-peak hours.
The deal forms part of a broader fleet renewal effort by Transtu, which has struggled in recent years with operational setbacks that have taken a toll on the quality of public transport across Greater Tunis.
The acquisition is designed to boost capacity on the heavily used line as ridership continues to grow, while also enhancing safety standards and overall service quality.
Funding for the project comes jointly from the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development and the European Investment Bank.
Beyond the trainsets, the contract includes five years of maintenance coverage, a supply of spare parts and maintenance equipment, and an underfloor wheel lathe aimed at improving long-term fleet reliability.
This latest investment fits into Tunisia’s larger railway modernisation strategy, under which the government plans to invest $12bn by 2040 to expand and upgrade the country’s rail infrastructure.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17683957/main.jpg -
PIF developer tenders 365-metre Mecca residential tower16 July 2026
Rua Al-Haram Al-Makki has tendered the main construction package for the Ajyad residential tower, a 365-metre high-rise development in Mecca’s central area, close to the grand mosque.
The bid submission deadline is 30 September.
Rua Al-Haram Al-Makki Company was established in October 2017 and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
The project team includes US-based Marriott International as residential operator, Hanmi Global Saudi as project management consultant, Saudi Diyar Consultants as construction supervision consultant, and PLP Architecture as lead design consultant and construction-stage design guardian.
The tower rises 84 floors with four basement levels. It comprises a total of 212 units, including 82 three-bedroom apartments, 85 four-bedroom units, 29 penthouses and 16 duplex villas.
The scheme has a gross floor area of 209,231 square metres (sq m) and a built-up area of 242,976 sq m.
The site is currently being cleared by a demolition contractor, with the existing mat foundation and retaining walls to be handed over to the main contractor, who will build the new superstructure on the retained raft.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17683664/main.jpg