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  UAE growth expansion beats expectations

  7 October 2025

  

   

  Bolstered by sustained economic diversification and a steady rise in exports, the UAE remains poised for robust growth well above the global average of 3% in 2025 and beyond its own growth projections.

  Following an estimated 4% real GDP expansion in 2024, the UAE economy is expected to accelerate its expansion to 4.8% in 2025, according to the Washington-based IMF. This is being driven by both strong non‑hydrocarbon activity and a rebound in oil output as Opec+ production cuts recede.

  Both GDP figures represent a further step up from the IMF’s April 2025 estimates of 3.8% and 4% for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with the UAE economy consistently outperforming the IMF’s growth expectations.

  Despite global economic uncertainty and rising instability, the UAE economy is expected to remain resilient in the near term, with the fund projecting growth will quicken to 5% in 2026.

  “The UAE has shown strong resilience to global uncertainty, regional conflicts and oil market volatility … supported by sustained diversification and expanding exports,” said the IMF in its latest statement on the country.

  Inflation is expected to remain subdued in 2025, averaging 1.6% – down from an April 2025 IMF estimate of 2.1% – and to hover around 2% in the medium term.

  Housing costs remain the primary source of price pressure and a growing concern for affordability, while prices for tradable goods are expected to remain stable.

  Property market risk

  Concerns over the state of the real estate market are one area where potentially negative assessments hang over the UAE economy.

  These concerns are currently concentrated in Dubai, where soaring prices have outpaced average wage rises and prompted warnings of a possible bubble.

  UBS, in its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 report, has significantly worsened its assessment of risk in the Dubai property market, moving it from 14th to 5th place in its ranking of exposure to a potential market crash.

  The rise in Dubai’s risk assessment was the largest increase of any market since the prior edition of the report, and the overall classification for Dubai was raised from ‘moderate’ to ‘elevated’.

  Property prices in the Dubai housing market have surged about 70% above pre‑pandemic levels in recent years, according to Knight Frank and JLL data, contrasting with more gradual recoveries in other sectors.

  Sales have also shifted towards larger volumes of off‑plan transactions, where prices continue to rise even as growth in ready property prices has levelled off.

  In May 2025, ratings agency Fitch issued an assessment pointing to up to a 15% moderation in prices in H2 2025 through 2026, suggesting the market had reached its peak.

  Future oversupply was the key concern in the report, which expected new construction projects launched between 2023 and 2024 to add about 250,000 units to the market, with a peak of 120,000 handovers in 2026.

  Countering these assessments are arguments that the city’s underlying economic fundamentals and steady population growth will continue to support consistent demand capable of absorbing the expected supply.

  The UAE government is also encouraging net immigration through more flexible residency visa arrangements, which, together with property sale incentive schemes, are expected to continue to drive property demand in the near term.

  Broader momentum

  Other key growth sectors for the UAE include tourism, construction and financial services — all of which continue to support the country’s economic momentum.

  The resilience of the country’s financial markets and capital flows despite recent global and regional shocks remains a positive signal for investors.

  The UAE is also supporting an investor‑friendly environment through agile regulation of fast‑growing areas, including the emerging market for virtual assets.

  This has been complemented by the country’s recent removal from the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, reflecting the government’s enhanced efforts to regulate and combat irregular financial activity.

  In the background, the UAE government continues to expand its Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (Cepa) with other countries — supporting diversification of the country’s global trade relations and networks.

  Support for the UAE’s resilience is also reflected in a positive trend in the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in September, which saw the non‑oil private sector deliver its best performance in seven months.

  After dipping to a recent low in July, the UAE PMI climbed for two straight months to reach its highest level since February in September — buoyed by a resurgence in new order growth as the economy emerged from the softer summer period.

  Despite a weaker year overall, with new order growth in particular falling to its lowest point in four years in August, UAE business sentiment nevertheless hit a 10‑month high that same month, even as new orders dipped.

  Now, the continuation of overall positive momentum in the index for the second month running suggests that recent concerns, including over geopolitical developments in the region in the form of the Israeli attacks in the Gulf, have been largely shrugged off.

  The government appears to be keeping the country’s fortunes on an even keel despite the choppy global economic backdrop.

  Taken together, the government’s firm stewardship, momentum in financial markets and robust public and private activity across key growth sectors help explain why the country’s growth continues to exceed expectations.

  ALSO READ: Public spending ties the UAE closer together

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  John Bambridge
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  Majid Al-Futtaim commits new investments in Saudi and UAE

  7 October 2025

  UAE-based developer Majid Al-Futtaim (MAF) has announced new commercial investments in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

  The firm said it has signed an agreement with Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company to introduce a Vox Cinemas multiplex and seven retail brands to Diriyah Square, part of the Diriyah project in Riyadh.

  The retail outlets will span approximately 5,534 square metres (sq m), while Vox Cinemas will occupy about 7,632 sq m.

  MAF will bring international brands to Diriyah, including Shiseido, Lululemon, Crate & Barrel, Abercrombie & Fitch, AllSaints, CB2 and Hollister.

  The formal signing took place at Diriyah Company’s headquarters and was attended by Jerry Inzerillo, group CEO of Diriyah Company, and Ahmed Galal Ismail, CEO of MAF Holding.

  In Dubai, MAF also announced plans to launch Ghaf Woods Mall within its Ghaf Woods residential community in Dubailand. 

  According to an official statement, once completed Ghaf Woods Mall will become the 30th mall in MAF’s portfolio and its 19th in the UAE.

  In April this year, MAF revealed plans to develop a mixed-use project in Riyadh at an estimated cost of about SR17.5bn ($4.6bn).

  According to media reports, the development will cover an area of 850,000 sq m and will include residential, commercial, office and entertainment components.

  In the same month, the firm said that it will invest AED5bn ($1.4bn) to upgrade Dubai’s Mall of the Emirates with new retail, dining, wellness and entertainment facilities.

  According to an official statement, the 20,000-square-metre expansion will add 100 new stores.

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  READ THE OCTOBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

  Private sector takes on expanded role; Riyadh shifts towards strategic expenditure; MEED’s 2025 power developer ranking

  Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

  > AGENDA 1: A new dawn for PPPs > AGENDA 2: GCC pushes PPPs to deliver $70bn pipeline > CHINA: China’s Belt and Road initiative surges in Middle East  > TUNISIA: Tunisia’s president faces growing challenge from unions > POWER DEVELOPER RANKING: Acwa Power consolidates power sector dominance > IPPs: GCC enters pivotal year for IPPs > ACQUISITION: Wood takeover could boost Sidara profits > INTERVIEW: SLB strives to boost regional standing  > ALEC: IPO is chance for Alec to showcase its capabilities > SAUDI MARKET FOCUS: Riyadh strives for sustainable growth

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  Public spending ties the UAE closer together

  7 October 2025

  

   

  On 6 October, Abu Dhabi Executive Council chairman Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan toured the almost-complete Zayed National Museum – the latest high-profile addition to the capital’s Saadiyat Cultural District, alongside branches of the Louvre and Guggenheim museums.

  The museum is due to officially open its doors in December, with galleries tracing the history of human civilisation and the development of the UAE itself. Mohamed Khalifa Al-Mubarak, chairman of the Abu Dhabi Department of Culture & Tourism, said the museum will “serve as a bridge for dialogue between the UAE and the world” – but the Foster & Partners-designed building, with its cluster of tapered, wing-like towers reaching into the sky, will also play a role in cementing the country’s own self-image.

  Infrastructure blitz

  Other projects are also helping to tie the seven emirates closer together, including the national rail system. Freight trains have been running across the network since early 2023 and the first passenger trains are due to follow next year. They will be operated by a joint venture between the state-owned Etihad Rail and France’s Keolis, in a deal announced during the Global Rail 2025 exhibition in Abu Dhabi in late September.

  There are big ambitions for the new network, with some projections suggesting passenger numbers could reach more than 36 million within four years. The trains will provide a physical connection between the emirates that avoids the often clogged-up roads; officials hope it could lead to greater economic activity too. Azza Alsuwaidi, deputy chief executive of Etihad Rail Mobility, has said the project could contribute some AED145bn ($39bn) to the UAE’s GDP over the next 50 years.

  From the capital it will take less than an hour to travel northeast to Dubai and around 70 minutes to go southwest to Ruwais; the journey from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman cost is expected to take 1 hour 45 minutes. When complete, the network will connect 11 cities in all. The development of a separate high-speed line will cut the journey time between Abu Dhabi and Dubai to just 30 minutes, with trains travelling at up to 350 kilometres an hour.

  Freight services continue to be further developed too. There are plans, for example, to create a new ‘bonded rail corridor’ that will link Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi with Fujairah Terminals and their adjacent free zones.

  In a separate effort to improve inter-emirate links, the Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure announced in late September a AED750m, two-year plan to upgrade the Emirates Road, adding extra lanes and bridges to cut the travel time for those driving between Ras Al-Khaimah, Umm Al-Quwain, Sharjah and Dubai.

  Economic resilience

  Earlier in the month, the Khalifa Fund for Enterprise Development pledged to help 1,000 local entrepreneurs in the next six months, via a national campaign called ‘The Emirates: The Startup Capital of the World’. This was launched on 21 September by federal Prime Minister and Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum.

  Such domestic issues provide a welcome contrast to the often-tense regional situation that policymakers and leaders are having to navigate – including the situation in Gaza and the reimposition of United Nations sanctions on Iran in late September.

  In the face of such geopolitical headwinds, the UAE economy has proved very resilient. In a statement in early October, the IMF said the country’s GDP expanded by 4% last year and should accelerate to 4.8% this year, well ahead of the global average.

  After leading an IMF team on a recent visit to the country, mission chief Said Bakhache said that “expansion in tourism, construction and financial services continues to underpin growth, supported by major infrastructure projects”.

  The economy has also been helped by the ongoing rollout of the UAE’s free trade strategy – the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with Australia and Malaysia were the two most recent to come into force, at the start of October.

  There are, though, some clouds on the horizon, not least in the real estate sector. Bakhache noted that housing costs represented “the main source of price pressures, raising potential affordability concerns”.

  The most recent UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index placed Dubai fifth in its rankings of cities around the world, rating the city as being at an “elevated risk” of a property bubble after seeing a 50% rise in prices over the past five years.

  “Dubai’s bubble risk has surged since 2022 amid an economic boom, leaving the market looking increasingly overheated,” the report said, adding that “incomes are not keeping pace with home prices and affordability has deteriorated”.

  Gentrification pivot

  This risk aside, the authorities are nevertheless working in other ways to try to make quality of life better. For instance, on 26 September, the Dubai authorities set up a new Civility Committee, which will be responsible for improving the look and feel of the city – part of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid’s aim to make Dubai “the world’s most beautiful and advanced city”.

  A few days later, on 29 September, the Abu Dhabi Executive Council took a similar step, when it approved the $11.4bn (AED42bn) next phase of its Liveability Strategy – a policy that aims to improve infrastructure in residential areas, from sports facilities and parks to schools and mosques.

  The emirate’s authorities are also planning to build 40,000 homes for locals over the next five years, across Al-Ain, the Al-Dhafra region and Abu Dhabi city itself. Al-Dhafra will also feature on the Etihad Rail passenger network, making it an option for commuters priced out of the bigger cities.

  Between these different public outlays, the common thread that emerges is that of the UAE’s desire to project an image of itself as a dependable, clear-visioned nation – one of connectivity, civic diligence and social mobility – in an increasingly uncertain world.

  Main image: Construction of the Zayed National Museum in the Saadiyat Cultural District, Abu Dhabi

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  Dominic Dudley
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  Etihad Rail and Masdar sign green hydrogen value chain deal

  7 October 2025

  The UAE’s Etihad Rail and Masdar have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore transportation solutions to support the green hydrogen value chain across the nation.

  According to an official statement: “The MoU will allow companies to utilise Etihad Rail’s national network to enable transportation of feedstocks and products along the green hydrogen and derivatives value chain, including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, sustainable aviation fuel and others.”

  The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the recently concluded GlobalRail event in Abu Dhabi.

  Masdar aims to become a leading producer of green hydrogen and its derivatives globally by 2030, with the company developing and investing in commercial projects and building scalable platforms in key markets worldwide.

  “The agreement is in line with Abu Dhabi’s low-carbon hydrogen policy and the UAE’s National Hydrogen Strategy 2050, which aims to strengthen the nation’s position as a producer and supplier of low-emission hydrogen by 2031, and help reduce emissions in hard-to-abate sectors, such as land, sea and air transport, chemicals and fertilisers, and metals, including aluminum, iron and steel,” the statement added.

  

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  The untapped potential of real estate development frameworks

  7 October 2025

  

   

  In the complex and fragmented real estate sector, establishing a standardised development framework can be a transformative tool for developers.

  An astronomically growing and increasingly profitable real estate sector in the GCC is encouraging greater consolidation. Often times a single master developer gets involved in the full project value chain: from early ideation, market research and planning to subsequent construction, operations and end-of-life activities. 

  But greater exposure to the real estate sector is fraught with perils. For one, real estate is a traditionally fragmented business. It involves a dizzying web of managerial, consulting and construction trades with complicated interdependencies and many unaccounted-for specialised roles. 

  Second, particularities of location, the political, physical, climate and social landscapes make every project a challenging venture. And a multitude of codes, regulations and standards add to the entanglement by requiring compliance at every stage, with gates needing multi-level approvals.

  But a standard real estate development framework can make work significantly simpler. It is a structured approach that defines major stages from site selection and feasibility analysis, to securing financing, design work, construction and eventual sales or operations. 

  The framework describes everything a developer should consider at every stage. Project activities, timelines, interdependencies, risks, types of outputs and financial transactions are outlined in detailed, ensuring projects are executed systematically. Even team and external stakeholders assignments to activities are outlined with clear delegation of authorities.  

  The benefits of deploying such frameworks can hardly be overstated and developers can reap a wide range of major awards from deploying them.

  > Opportunities to boost earnings

  By mapping the complete range of activities, particularly for community developments, downstream revenue-generating assets or services are often revealed. Thus, companies are able to grow by diversifying or spinning off new capabilities that retain earnings.

  Examples of these are waste management services or rental of advertisement boards, or even joint ventures with operators in hospitality, retail or district cooling. Not only do frameworks fish out these white spaces, but they support developers to efficiently design their assets with operations in mind.

  Emaar is one pioneer in this field. In a double-whammy that both ensures maximum returns and high-end flagship and well-serviced communities like Dubai Downtown or Dubai Hills Estate, the master developer bakes the design and operations of its commercial holdings like business parks, golf clubs, malls or community management services early into its planning processes.

  > Optimising designs to save on costs

  Because ad-hoc changes are often expensive, early design optimisation is critical. By pre-planning manufacturing processes, construction logistics or operational specifications through a standard framework, developers can optimise design layouts and construction to achieve significant capital and operational savings. 

  For instance, by leveraging modular prefabrication or standardised details for elements like cladding, windowsills or handrails, project costs can be reduced. Additional savings can come from bulk procurements of standardised products from single source suppliers that frameworks mandate to be onboarded early. 

  Doha’s Stadium 974 is a great example. It is a 40,000-seat World Cup venue that was built from modified shipping containers and modular steel frames. Its “plug-and-play” approach cut overall design costs due to its adoption of modular units and reduction in material waste. Savings were even compounded by lower construction costs due to shortened site works and faster assemblies. 

  > Visibility across all lifecycle stages

  Very frequently major national and city events such as Expos, Olympics and World Cups impose milestones on large-scale projects. Subsequently, all sub-development streams must be highly regimented to meet them.

  By commanding the entire development timeline through a framework, the grand critical path spanning multiple years can be identified. Crashing schedules, overlapping floating activities, and procuring and onboarding contractors for early preparation are common practices.

  To cater to the 2022 Fifa World Cup, Lusail Real Estate Development Company (LREDC) constructed utilities and tram systems in parallel to buildings. Also, LREDC set strict design guidelines to avoid late redesigns, contracted developers simultaneously, and strategised prefabricated components and 24/7 construction shifts to compress schedules.

  > Mapping activities to maximise involvement 

  A codified development process clearly describes the roles of all stakeholders with full transparency. A delegation of authority matrix ensures accountability, maximises employee productivity and approaches partners early for a fully effective contribution. 

  For instance, concept designs are multidisciplinary documents known to benefit greatly from the input of sales and marketing or asset management teams. Even external partners such as retail or hospitality operators should be involved. Knowing this is often overlooked. A standardised manual can enforce these teams’ contributions as conditions for design approval.    

  > Integration for more sustainable design

  Integrated teams are the kernel of sustainable designs. A solid framework with mandated team assignments makes sure engineering, construction, and operations and maintenance personnel all have a seat at the drawing table to design an efficient product from the outset. 

  For instance, incorporating specifications from district cooling operators or heat pump contractors allows engineering teams to design envelopes with appropriate U-values, optimising the performance of mechanical systems. Construction waste can be saved from landfills by designing to finishing standards shared early by suppliers.

  In Abu Dhabi, the Al-Bahr Towers designers had an integrated facade team involved early on. Architects, facade engineers, technical specialists and contractors worked together to design the adaptive solar screens and mashrabiya-inspired automated shading. The result was improved building energy performance, better occupant comfort, lower glare, and a building envelope that is both aesthetic and functional. 

  > Stage gates to guard against deviations

  Deviations from initial design intentions often arise due to constraints or requirements such as building codes, tight budgets, high material costs, communication siloes or contractors’ limited know-how. A structured framework, however, can dictate quality reviews at selected stage gates. This ensures the product remains aligned, not only with the initial business plan and design vision, but also with the organisation’s broader goals. 

  This issue has been of particular interest to megadevelopers in Saudi Arabia. Many are installing quality assessment controls at major stage gates based on standardised real estate delivery frameworks to deliver high-quality communities that remain true to their original visions and rendered perspectives.

  The need for tailor-made solutions

  Although real estate processes and activities are generally similar, there is no single blueprint or a ‘one-size-fits-all’ template for a successful framework. Instead, solutions have to be tailored to each institution and for multiple reasons. 

  For one, the diversity of corporate divisions and reporting structures makes it difficult to apply a single, standardised model of decision-making. 

  Second, smaller developers usually outsource many capabilities, leaving large activity gaps that are not performed internally and cannot be monitored or managed in a similar way to larger corporations.

  Third, different development scales – such as district versus building level – by their nature involve different stakeholders, permitting processes, design scopes and operational protocols that challenge standardisation efforts. 

  Finally, development rarely unfolds in a linear sequence. Iterations, task leapfrogging and improvised activities are almost a daily routine. These incongruencies will ultimately test the framework’s ability to adapt to real-life situations.

  That said, the clear track record of significant gains justifies why developers are stepping forward with the framework initiative regardless of the challenges. It is as the old adage reminds us, “without a master plan, failure is not an accident, it’s an outcome”.

  Main image: Dubai Hills Estate

  

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