meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Foreign policy issues cloud Bahrain’s horizon

8 November 2023

MEED’s December 2023 special report on Bahrain also includes: 

> Bahrain waits for major infrastructure projects
> Bahrain takes renewables strides
> Bahrain charts pathway to net-zero future
> Bahrain banks have cause for cheer

 

Bahrain’s Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad al-Khalifa, first deputy chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth & Sports and head of the Bahrain Olympic Committee, flew into Doha on 28 October to watch his compatriots take on Japan in the final of the Asian Men’s Handball Qualification Tournament for the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Sheikh Khalid was welcomed on arrival by Qatar's Sheikh Thani bin Hamad al-Thani in what was another sign of the ongoing process of rapprochement between the two countries, following the 2017-21 boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The rebuilding of the bilateral relationship has been a slow process. Indeed, Bahraini officials complained on several occasions in 2022 that Qatar had repeatedly declined to take up its offer of talks.

However, the process picked up momentum in early 2023, with several meetings at the headquarters of the Gulf Co-operation Council in Riyadh. In mid-April, the two sides agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, although they have yet to reopen embassies or appoint new ambassadors.

Regional tensions

Other foreign policy issues are causing greater diplomatic headaches these days. As one of the two Gulf countries to sign normalisation deals with Israel, Bahrain has found itself in a difficult position in light of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October and the subsequent heavy bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces.

That issue rose to the fore on 2 November, when the Council of Representatives issued a statement saying the Israeli and Bahraini ambassadors to each other’s country had returned home and there had been a “cessation of economic relations”.

This was initially taken by many commentators to mean that diplomatic relations had been broken off, but the reality appears to be a suspension rather than a formal severance of ties. The Bahrain government subsequently issued a statement confirming its ambassador to Tel Aviv had returned home “some time ago” and the Israeli ambassador to Manama had also left. There had been protests outside the embassy since the Hamas-Israel war began.

In addition, direct flights between Bahrain International airport and Tel Aviv airport “stopped as of several weeks ago”, Manama said.

However, the statement made no mention of diplomatic relations being cut. The Israeli government meanwhile said that bilateral relations were “stable”.

However, there is clear potential for the war to escalate and the Bahrain-Israel relationship to worsen. Speaking at the 10th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on 1 November, Bahrain’s ambassador to the UN, Jamal Fares al-Ruwaei, warned about the risks that Israel’s bombing of Gaza could radicalise a new generation. “Such scenes of death and destruction can create entire generations filled with accumulated anger and thirst for vengeance,” he said.

The authorities in Manama will be watching closely in case future protests against Israeli actions include explicit challenges to the Bahrain regime itself.

Economic headwinds

On the economic front there have also been challenges. Italian energy major Eni recently pulled out of the offshore Block 1 licence it secured in May 2019. An exploratory well was drilled on the block in mid-2021.

Bahrain has also yet to make any significant progress on the Khaleej al-Bahrain offshore field, which was discovered in April 2018.

In a more positive development, a $7bn upgrade of the Bapco refinery is due to enable a ramp-up of production to about 380,000 barrels a day by mid-2024, which should bolster government revenues, though there have been some reports of delays.

Bahrain’s headline real GDP growth estimate for 2023 has meanwhile been curbed to 2.7 per cent in the latest update from the Washington-based IMF, down from an estimate of 3 per cent in April. This is down from an estimated 4.9 per cent growth in 2023 and comes amid an extension of Opec+ oil production cuts. Real GDP is forecast to rise back to 3.6 per cent in 2024.

Although high oil prices have bolstered the country’s fiscal position over the past two years, the government has also had to continue trimming public spending to bring its budget closer to balance. In 2023, Bahrain is running an estimated fiscal deficit of 5 per cent of GDP.

Capital Intelligence sovereign analyst, Dina Ennab, predicts the budget deficit will fall to 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, compared to 6.1 per cent in 2022. It could fall further, to 3.6 per cent of GDP by 2025, “provided the government continues to contain public spending and improves revenue mobilisation”, she wrote in a mid-October ratings review.

This is still a far larger deficit than the government has been aiming for. In early June, the government issued its two-year budget for 2023-24 and said it was targeting a deficit of less than 1 per cent of GDP in 2024.

Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018, the government had initially aimed to balance its books by 2022, but the year before that deadline – and amid the Covid-19 pandemic and lower oil revenues in 2021 – it pushed the target date back to 2024.

The government’s forecast revenues of BD3.1bn ($8.2bn) in 2023 and BD3.5bn in 2024 are based on a conservative target of oil prices averaging $60 a barrel. The IMF estimates that the country will need an oil price of $108.3 a barrel to balance its budget this year, falling to $96.9 a barrel in 2024 – both figures are by far the highest in the GCC.

Should instability spread around the region, there could be the sort of spike in oil prices that would, in theory, bring the budget into balance, but the wider geopolitical and macroeconomic consequences would almost certainly be broadly negative for Bahrain and neighbouring countries.

Image: Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad attends Olympiad qualifier in Doha. Credit: Bahrain News Agency

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11276847/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman invites bids for Musandam renewables study

    25 August 2026

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (PWP) has issued a request for proposals (RFP) for techno-economic consultancy services to assess the feasibility of renewable energy options in Musandam Governorate.

    The study will examine solar photovoltaic (PV), wind and hybrid renewable energy configurations. It will also assess battery energy storage systems (bess) and other renewable energy and energy storage technologies.

    The consultant will be required to determine which technologies are technically and economically justified for the governorate.

    The bid submission deadline is 24 September.

    The Musandam power system is served primarily by the 123MW Musandam independent power plant (IPP), which began operating in 2017. The governorate has historically relied on small diesel-fired units, but has been seeking to move away from diesel-fired power generation for several years.

    Nama PWP has previously said it was exploring renewable energy options in Musandam to meet future additional capacity requirements.

    Its latest seven-year statement, released in March, forecasts peak electricity demand in Musandam to rise from 91MW in 2024 to 130MW in 2031, an average annual increase of 5%. Average demand is forecast to rise from 52MW to 73MW over the same period.

    The plan says demand growth is being driven by distribution-level load and projects aimed at boosting tourism, economic and commercial activity. 

    Separately, the utility recently invited bids for financial and commercial consultancy services covering three 1GW solar IPPs targeted for commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The bid submissions deadline is 10 September.

    The three projects covered by the financial and commercial consultancy tender are understood to also be part of the 4GW programme, for which a technical advisory tender was issued on 15 July.

    Bidding for this tender closes on 26 August.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18983679/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • US launches sanctions campaign against Iran

    25 August 2026

    The US has launched a sweeping sanctions campaign against Iran and the entities that trade with it, imposing measures on almost 60 individuals, companies and vessels while expanding the reach of secondary sanctions across five sectors of the Iranian economy.

    The campaign, named Operation Economic Outcast, was announced on 24 August by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who described it as an economic D-Day for Iran. He said Washington’s objective was to sever every economic lifeline sustaining the Iranian regime.

    The treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) issued five sectoral sanctions determinations under Executive Order 13902, covering digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. The determinations allow Ofac to sanction any person operating in those sectors, regardless of location. Washington said Iran uses cryptocurrency for sanctions evasion, seeks advanced technology for its weapons programmes, uses gold to stabilise the rial, and relies on commercial aviation and shipping networks to move fighters, weapons and oil revenue.

    The measures build on earlier determinations targeting Iran’s financial, petroleum and petrochemical sectors.

    Ofac also sanctioned close to 60 entities, individuals and vessels across multiple jurisdictions, including UAE-based entities, over alleged involvement in nuclear and missile procurement, cyber operations and oil revenue networks. The designations named a network of brokers, companies and shadow fleet vessels operating across the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and other regions to transport Iranian oil and channel revenue to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Among those designated were shipping brokers and bunkering firms based in the UAE that Washington said facilitated Iranian oil shipments and provided services to sanctioned vessels. The treasury also identified several shadow fleet tankers as blocked property, saying they had moved millions of barrels of Iranian crude and petroleum products, mainly to China.

    Separately, the treasury targeted a procurement network spanning the Middle East and East Asia that it said supported Iran’s acquisition of proliferation-sensitive equipment, along with a cyber group directed by Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence & Security.

    Bessent said Washington was pressing governments to shut down Iran-related activity within defined timelines, warning that entities facilitating money laundering or sanctions evasion for Iran risked being cut off from the US financial system. He declined to name specific countries.

    The campaign follows the UAE’s own move against Tehran. On 19 August, the UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran with immediate effect, citing regional escalation. The UAE has historically been one of Iran’s most significant trading partners, with much of the relationship built on re-export trade routed through Dubai.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18983152/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Kuwait tenders $3.3bn gas processing facility

    25 August 2026

     

    State-owned Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC) has issued the tender for the development of an onshore gas plant next to the Al-Zour refinery, according to industry sources.

    The project budget is estimated at $3.3bn, and the bid deadline is 29 December, with a meeting for contractors scheduled for 14 September.

    The tender was issued on 23 August.

    The proposed plant will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cubic feet a day of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra offshore field, located in Gulf waters in the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    In February, MEED reported that at least seven companies had shown interest in participating in the tender.

    Contractors that sent representatives to previous meetings to discuss the project include:

    • Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Hyundai Engineering Company (South Korea)
    • JGC (Japan)

    The tender process is using a fast-track model, which means that Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders (Capt) will not be involved in the tender process.

    Capt typically reviews the technical and commercial evaluations of bids and verifies that the bidding process is competitive.

    It is understood that not requiring Capt to approve this tender is expected to speed up the tender process.

    Iran disputes ownership of the field, referring to it as Arash.

    Iran claims the field partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development.

    The Dorra field’s close proximity to Iran could make development difficult due to current security concerns.

    The offshore elements of the wider Dorra field development project are expected to be especially difficult to protect from attacks from Iran.

    Earlier this month, MEED revealed that Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO) had selected contractors for two major offshore packages under the Dorra field facilities development project.

    KJO, which is jointly owned by Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation subsidiary KGOC, has divided the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) scope for the Dorra gas production project into four packages: three offshore and one onshore.

    US-based McDermott International has secured offshore package 2A, valued at about $1.5bn, according to sources.

    A consortium of India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH) and Italian contractor Saipem has secured package 2B, sources told MEED.

    Estimated at about $3.7bn, package 2B is the largest of the three offshore EPC packages under the Dorra field facilities project.

    MEED reported in March that the LTEH/Saipem consortium had emerged as the lowest bidder for offshore package 2B.

    Contractors submitted bids for offshore packages 2A and 2B by the 9 March deadline, MEED previously reported. Bid validity was understood to expire on 15 August, prompting KJO to issue letters of intent to the selected contractors earlier this month, sources said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18964461/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq-GCC grid link delayed amid security concerns

    25 August 2026

    Iraq has postponed the planned commissioning of its 500MW electricity interconnection with Kuwait despite completing about 96% of the project.

    According to local media reports, Iraq Electricity Ministry spokesman Ahmed Turki said: “The announcement of the completion of the electricity interconnection project with Kuwait has been postponed due to the security situation and the current events in the region.”

    The project had been scheduled to be completed and commissioned in September, connecting Iraq to the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) electricity network.

    The GCC-Iraq grid link involves a double-circuit 400-kilovolt (kV) transmission line from the Wafra station in Kuwait to the Al-Faw station in south Iraq, with a total transmission capacity of 1,800MW and a length of 295 kilometres.

    As MEED previously reported, construction on the project began in June 2023, with an initial completion period of 24 months.

    Earlier that year, the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) awarded contracts to the following contractors: KEC International (local), Kalpataru Power Transmission (India), Calik Enerji (Turkiye), Cegelec Saudi Arabia (local/France) and National Contracting Company (NCC).

    In January 2020, Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding to import 500MW of electricity from the GCCIA.

    The project was initially due to begin operating in April this year. However, in May, Iraq Electricity Ministry spokesman Ahmed Mousain said the interconnection line had reached an area in Kuwait where Kuwaiti forces were deployed because of the US-Iran war, with the security situation disrupting the project’s final stages. 

    Iraq currently produces about 28GW of electricity, according to the Electricity Ministry, but demand during peak summer periods is estimated at more than 50GW. The shortfall continues to cause widespread outages and put pressure on the national grid.

    In parallel, Iraq’s power sector is undergoing one of its largest expansion programmes in decades as the government attempts to address chronic electricity shortages, diversify fuel sources and strengthen regional grid connectivity. As of May, over $40bn-worth of projects were under execution, following $4.2bn in new contracts last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18963936/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • L&T announces Jafurah fourth expansion phase contract award

    24 August 2026

     

    Indian contracting conglomerate Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has announced that its subsidiary, L&T Energy Hydrocarbon Onshore (LTEH Onshore), has won a contract to undertake a gas compression facilities project “for a prestigious client in the Middle East”.

    LTEH Onshore received the letter of award during India’s 2026 financial year, which starts on 1 April, Mumbai-headquartered L&T said in a statement, describing the order as ‘ultra-mega’ – a term the company uses for contracts valued at more than INR150bn ($1.57bn).

    The project involves the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of gas compression plants, comprising gas inlet facilities, gas compression systems, condensate and produced-water handling systems, propane refrigeration systems and all associated utilities, L&T said in its statement on 24 August.

    “The facilities will be developed for new onshore installations to process sour gas in compliance with applicable client standards, codes and project requirements,” the Bombay Stock Exchange-listed company said.

    To meet the power requirements of the gas compression plants, L&T’s Power Transmission & Distribution business will execute two 230kV extra-high-voltage substations, L&T added.

    MEED understands that the contract award relates to the fourth expansion phase of the Jafurah unconventional gas development in Saudi Arabia, for which Saudi Aramco selected LTEH for EPC works earlier this year.

    MEED previously reported that LTEH started work on the Jafurah fourth expansion phase during the second quarter of the year, with sources estimating the contract value at around $1.5bn.

    The main scope of work on the Jafurah fourth expansion phase project involves the EPC of two gas compression trains at the giant gas basin in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Each plant will be able to process up to 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    The detailed scope of work involves the EPC of the following process and utilities units at the south field of the Jafurah reserve:

    • Two gas compression trains of 200 million cf/d capacity each, measuring 400 metres by 400 metres
    • Gas compression plant inlet area
    • Gas compression plant condensate and produced-water handling
    • Instrumentation and plant air unit
    • Nitrogen generation unit
    • Raw/potable/water utilities
    • Chemical injection systems
    • Diesel systems
    • Flare and flare gas recovery systems
    • Gas compression plant burn pit
    • Closed drain system
    • Oily water system
    • Sanitary water system
    • Stormwater system
    • Firewater system
    • Fire and gas protection system
    • All buildings located within the gas compression plant, excluding security buildings
    • Outside battery limit buildings

    Contractors submitted proposals for the Jafurah fourth expansion phase project by the deadline of 15 January 2025, MEED previously reported. After the bids were submitted, Aramco initially asked contractors to extend their bid validity until the end of September, as it needed more time to evaluate the proposals.

    The Saudi energy giant then asked contractors to extend the validity of their base proposals until February this year, and the bidders complied, MEED reported.

    Along with requesting a second bid-validity extension, Aramco also sought an alternative set of commercial proposals from contractors, sources said. Bidders submitted the second price option to the client in December, the sources added.

    The following contractors are among those that are understood to have submitted bids for the Jafurah fourth expansion phase project:

    • China Petroleum Engineering & Construction
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain) / Sinopec Group (China)

    Aramco issued the main tender for the project in July 2024. Contractors invited to bid were initially set a deadline of 15 October that year to submit technical bids and their In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) credentials. Commercial bids were due to be submitted by 31 October, with the deadline extended to 31 December, then to 15 January, 2025.

    Jafurah gas development phases

    The Jafurah basin is the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, spanning around 17,000 square kilometres. The reserve is estimated to contain 229 trillion cubic feet of gas and 75 billion stock-tank barrels of condensate.

    Aramco brought the greenfield Jafurah gas processing plant online in early December, with a production capacity of 450 million cf/d, marking the commissioning of the first phase of its $100bn capital expenditure programme to produce gas from the unconventional resource base.

    The Saudi oil company had earlier said it expected to start gas production at Jafurah in 2025, with the intention of progressively ramping up to 2 billion cf/d of sales gas, 420 million cf/d of ethane and 630,000 barrels a day (b/d) of high-value liquids by 2030.

    Aramco has said that, at peak production, its unconventional gas programme is expected to generate electricity equivalent to displacing 500,000 b/d of oil.

    Along with overseeing EPC works on the Jafurah fourth expansion phase project, Aramco is also nearing a decision on awarding the main EPC contract for the fifth expansion phase of the mammoth Jafurah unconventional gas development programme.

    MEED recently reported that a frontrunner has emerged for the main EPC contract for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase, whose scope is similar to the programme’s fourth phase that has been awarded to LTEH.

    Dubai-headquartered Wood Group has carried out the front-end engineering and design (feed) on the fifth expansion phase.

    Progress on the fourth and fifth expansion phases of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme continues as EPC work on the third phase advances.

    In July 2024, Aramco issued a non-binding letter of intent to a consortium of Tecnicas Reunidas and Sinopec Group for the EPC contract for the Jafurah third expansion phase. The value of the contract is estimated to be $2.24bn.

    The objective of the third expansion phase of Jafurah is similar to that of the fourth phase of development. The main scope of work involves the EPC of three gas compression plants, each with a capacity of 200 million cf/d.

    The third phase’s scope of work also includes building a 230kV substation to power the new gas compression plants and installing other utilities units, piping systems and safety equipment.

    The selection of contractors for the third expansion phase of the Jafurah development came within weeks of Aramco officially awarding EPC contracts for the second expansion phase, which aims to raise its processing potential to up to 2 billion cf/d of raw gas produced from the Jafurah field.

    Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined total of about $12.4bn, for the second expansion phase on 30 June 2024.

    The EPC scope of work on the project involves the construction of gas compression facilities and associated pipelines and the expansion of the Jafurah gas plant, including the construction of gas processing trains, utilities, sulphur and export facilities, Aramco said in a statement.

    The main EPC packages of the Jafurah second expansion phase project, their estimated values and the selected contractors are:

    • Package 1 – gas processing plant and main process units – $2.9bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • Package 2 – utilities and offsites – $2.4bn: Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • Package 3 – gas compression units – $1bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon
    • Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) package 1 – NGL fractionation trains – $1bn: Tecnicas Reunidas / Refining & Chemical Engineering Group (part of China’s Sinopec Group)
    • Riyas NGL package 2 – utilities, storage and export facilities – $2.2bn: Tecnicas Reunidas/Refining & Chemical Engineering Group
    • Riyas NGL package 6 – site preparation works – $107m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners (Saudi Arabia)
    • Riyas NGL package 9 – temporary construction facilities – $80m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners

    Aramco kickstarted EPC works on the first phase of the programme in November 2021 by awarding $10bn-worth of subsurface and EPC contracts.

    In February 2020, Aramco received a capital expenditure grant of $110bn from the Saudi government for the long-term phased development of the Jafurah unconventional gas resource base.

    The Jafurah unconventional gas development programme is central to Aramco’s goal of increasing gas production capacity. The target has recently been raised to 80%, with 2021 as the baseline, up from 60%, to meet rising domestic and global demand. The company expects life-cycle investment in Jafurah to exceed $100bn.

    Prior to the commissioning of the Jafurah gas plant in the last quarter of this year, Aramco completed an $11bn lease-and-leaseback deal in late October for gas processing facilities at the Jafurah unconventional gas reserve with a consortium led by funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), part of US asset manager BlackRock.

    Under the transaction, which Aramco started in August, a newly formed subsidiary – Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC) – will lease development and usage rights to the Jafurah field gas processing plant and the Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation facility.

    After 20 years, JMGC will lease the assets back to Aramco. JMGC will collect a tariff payable by Aramco in exchange for granting Aramco the exclusive right to receive, process and treat raw gas from the Jafurah resource base.

    Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in JMGC, while the GIP-led consortium will hold the remaining 49%. Investors participating in the GIP-led consortium include Hassana Investment Company, The Arab Energy Fund (TAEF) and Aberdeen Investcorp Infrastructure Partners, as well as other institutional investors from North and Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962987/main4448.jpg
    Indrajit Sen