meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Foreign policy issues cloud Bahrain’s horizon

8 November 2023

MEED’s December 2023 special report on Bahrain also includes: 

> Bahrain waits for major infrastructure projects
> Bahrain takes renewables strides
> Bahrain charts pathway to net-zero future
> Bahrain banks have cause for cheer

 

Bahrain’s Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad al-Khalifa, first deputy chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth & Sports and head of the Bahrain Olympic Committee, flew into Doha on 28 October to watch his compatriots take on Japan in the final of the Asian Men’s Handball Qualification Tournament for the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Sheikh Khalid was welcomed on arrival by Qatar's Sheikh Thani bin Hamad al-Thani in what was another sign of the ongoing process of rapprochement between the two countries, following the 2017-21 boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The rebuilding of the bilateral relationship has been a slow process. Indeed, Bahraini officials complained on several occasions in 2022 that Qatar had repeatedly declined to take up its offer of talks.

However, the process picked up momentum in early 2023, with several meetings at the headquarters of the Gulf Co-operation Council in Riyadh. In mid-April, the two sides agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, although they have yet to reopen embassies or appoint new ambassadors.

Regional tensions

Other foreign policy issues are causing greater diplomatic headaches these days. As one of the two Gulf countries to sign normalisation deals with Israel, Bahrain has found itself in a difficult position in light of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October and the subsequent heavy bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces.

That issue rose to the fore on 2 November, when the Council of Representatives issued a statement saying the Israeli and Bahraini ambassadors to each other’s country had returned home and there had been a “cessation of economic relations”.

This was initially taken by many commentators to mean that diplomatic relations had been broken off, but the reality appears to be a suspension rather than a formal severance of ties. The Bahrain government subsequently issued a statement confirming its ambassador to Tel Aviv had returned home “some time ago” and the Israeli ambassador to Manama had also left. There had been protests outside the embassy since the Hamas-Israel war began.

In addition, direct flights between Bahrain International airport and Tel Aviv airport “stopped as of several weeks ago”, Manama said.

However, the statement made no mention of diplomatic relations being cut. The Israeli government meanwhile said that bilateral relations were “stable”.

However, there is clear potential for the war to escalate and the Bahrain-Israel relationship to worsen. Speaking at the 10th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on 1 November, Bahrain’s ambassador to the UN, Jamal Fares al-Ruwaei, warned about the risks that Israel’s bombing of Gaza could radicalise a new generation. “Such scenes of death and destruction can create entire generations filled with accumulated anger and thirst for vengeance,” he said.

The authorities in Manama will be watching closely in case future protests against Israeli actions include explicit challenges to the Bahrain regime itself.

Economic headwinds

On the economic front there have also been challenges. Italian energy major Eni recently pulled out of the offshore Block 1 licence it secured in May 2019. An exploratory well was drilled on the block in mid-2021.

Bahrain has also yet to make any significant progress on the Khaleej al-Bahrain offshore field, which was discovered in April 2018.

In a more positive development, a $7bn upgrade of the Bapco refinery is due to enable a ramp-up of production to about 380,000 barrels a day by mid-2024, which should bolster government revenues, though there have been some reports of delays.

Bahrain’s headline real GDP growth estimate for 2023 has meanwhile been curbed to 2.7 per cent in the latest update from the Washington-based IMF, down from an estimate of 3 per cent in April. This is down from an estimated 4.9 per cent growth in 2023 and comes amid an extension of Opec+ oil production cuts. Real GDP is forecast to rise back to 3.6 per cent in 2024.

Although high oil prices have bolstered the country’s fiscal position over the past two years, the government has also had to continue trimming public spending to bring its budget closer to balance. In 2023, Bahrain is running an estimated fiscal deficit of 5 per cent of GDP.

Capital Intelligence sovereign analyst, Dina Ennab, predicts the budget deficit will fall to 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, compared to 6.1 per cent in 2022. It could fall further, to 3.6 per cent of GDP by 2025, “provided the government continues to contain public spending and improves revenue mobilisation”, she wrote in a mid-October ratings review.

This is still a far larger deficit than the government has been aiming for. In early June, the government issued its two-year budget for 2023-24 and said it was targeting a deficit of less than 1 per cent of GDP in 2024.

Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018, the government had initially aimed to balance its books by 2022, but the year before that deadline – and amid the Covid-19 pandemic and lower oil revenues in 2021 – it pushed the target date back to 2024.

The government’s forecast revenues of BD3.1bn ($8.2bn) in 2023 and BD3.5bn in 2024 are based on a conservative target of oil prices averaging $60 a barrel. The IMF estimates that the country will need an oil price of $108.3 a barrel to balance its budget this year, falling to $96.9 a barrel in 2024 – both figures are by far the highest in the GCC.

Should instability spread around the region, there could be the sort of spike in oil prices that would, in theory, bring the budget into balance, but the wider geopolitical and macroeconomic consequences would almost certainly be broadly negative for Bahrain and neighbouring countries.

Image: Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad attends Olympiad qualifier in Doha. Credit: Bahrain News Agency

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11276847/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Miral commits $3.2bn Yas Island investments

    14 September 2026

    Abu Dhabi’s Miral has announced plans to invest over AED12bn ($3.2bn) in Yas Island over the next five years.

    According to a statement, the investment will fund a pipeline of new projects, as well as expansions and enhancements to existing attractions, supporting Abu Dhabi’s Tourism Strategy 2030.

    The next phase of development will focus on expanding Yas Island’s theme parks and attractions, while introducing new immersive rides and experiences that reflect changing visitor expectations.

    The investment will also strengthen the island’s hospitality offering through additional hotel rooms and enhancements to its overall accommodation portfolio.

    The investment is separate from the previously announced Disney project. 

    Miral recently started the expansion works of its Harry Potter-themed expansion at the Warner Bros World Yas Island entertainment destination in Abu Dhabi.

    The scope of the Warner Bros World phase two expansion includes adding 63,000 square metres (sq m) to the existing theme park.

    This will include a Harry Potter-themed zone with three new rides called Diagon Alley, Hogwarts Castle and The Forbidden Forest, along with retail outlets and food and beverage facilities.

    Yas Waterworld

    Miral has developed a series of theme parks and other entertainment-related attractions on Yas Island, working with several local and international contractors.

    In July last year, Miral opened a new 16,900 sq m expansion of its Yas Waterworld park to the public.

    The expansion added 3.3 kilometres of slide sections to the park. The addition of 18 new rides and attractions, bringing the total number of rides to more than 60, is expected to increase visitor capacity by 20%.

    Construction was carried out by local contractor Alec.

    Disney park

    The Walt Disney Company and Miral signed an agreement in May to build a Disney theme park resort on Yas Island.

    Disney, which is based in the US, said the Abu Dhabi site will be its seventh theme park resort. The others are in California and Florida in the US, Paris in France, Hong Kong and Shanghai in China, and Tokyo in Japan.

    In a statement, Disney noted that the UAE is located within a four-hour flight of one-third of the world’s population, making it a significant gateway for tourism. It is also home to one of the world’s busiest airline hubs, with 120 million passengers travelling through Abu Dhabi and Dubai each year.

    The Disney theme park resort in Abu Dhabi will include entertainment areas, themed accommodations, dining venues and retail experiences.

    In 2023, Miral opened SeaWorld Abu Dhabi, also on Yas Island. Alec was the contractor for the estimated $565m project.

    In 2018, Miral opened the Warner Bros theme park on Yas Island. Belgium’s Besix was the contractor for the estimated $531m project.

    Other Miral projects have included the Etihad Arena and the indoor climbing and skydive centre Clymb. Bam International of the Netherlands was the contractor for the arena and Germany’s Zublin was the contractor for Clymb.

    Yas Island was launched as a project in 2006 by local developer Aldar Properties. The original centrepiece attractions were the Yas Marina Circuit, which hosts Formula 1 motor racing’s annual Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and the Ferrari World theme park.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19645816/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors prepare bids for Oxagon wastewater plant

    14 September 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing to submit bids to build a wastewater treatment plant for Oxagon, Neom’s industrial cluster.

    The industrial wastewater treatment package will have an initial capacity of 35,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d), supplied in modular trains of 5,000 cm/d each. A separate sanitary wastewater treatment package will have a capacity of 1,000 cm/d.

    The contract is structured as a design-build-operate project and covers the supply, installation and commissioning of industrial and sanitary wastewater treatment packages, as well as three years of operation and maintenance.

    Bids are due on 2 October, a source close to the project told MEED.

    It is understood that Neom’s water utility Enowa issued the request for proposals earlier this year. The plant is designed to provide “interim wastewater treatment” capacity for Neom’s Oxagon Industrial Quarter as industrial development in the area progresses.

    Enowa has described the treatment systems as interim and de-mountable, allowing them to be installed and subsequently removed or relocated as requirements at Oxagon develop. The plant can be expanded to a maximum of 45,000 cm/d.

    The tender documents also state that Neom may consider export credit agency (ECA) financing for the project, with the strength of bidders’ ECA financing proposals forming part of the commercial evaluation.

    The project follows an earlier tender for the Oxagon Village Water Recycling Plant, which was cancelled despite contractors submitting bids in 2024.

    MEED reported at the time that Beijing-based PowerChina, the local Alfanar Company and Cairo-headquartered Orascom had submitted bids for the project. It is understood that these firms are also likely to participate in the latest tender.

    The earlier scheme included truck receiving facilities, pretreatment, biological treatment using food chain reactor technology, tertiary treatment, sludge handling and recycled-water storage.

    The latest procurement appears to represent a reworked approach to wastewater treatment at Oxagon Industrial Quarter, with the previous engineering, procurement and construction scheme replaced by an interim, modular and de-mountable facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19640903/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia shuts East-West oil pipeline after drone strikes

    14 September 2026

    Saudi Arabia has temporarily closed its 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline after it was targeted by multiple drones launched from Iraq, disrupting one of the kingdom’s most critical energy export routes and threatening global oil supplies already strained by conflict across the region.

    The Ministry of Energy said the pipeline, which connects the Abqaiq oil field in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was hit in the Riyadh and Medina regions on 12 September. Specialised teams have begun securing the facility and assessing damage. A Foreign Ministry statement said the attack resulted in injuries and “some damage that is currently being addressed”.

    The closure removes about 4 million barrels a day from the global market, representing 4% of world oil supply. The pipeline’s role has become increasingly critical since the US-Iran conflict forced a near-complete shutdown of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in March.

    Saudi Arabia has been using the East-West route to bypass the chokepoint, but the assault has left the kingdom dependent on substantially reduced Hormuz exports and Red Sea shipping routes now threatened by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.

    Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s office confirmed the drone strike on the East-West Pipeline originated in the Maysan province, which borders Iran. The government formally condemned the attack, announced an investigation into the Maysan operations command and dismissed its commander. No armed group has claimed responsibility, but security analysts attribute the strike to Iran-backed militias operating from Iraqi territory.

    Riyadh said it was not retaliating “at this stage”, choosing instead to support Iraqi efforts to prevent further strikes from its territory. 

    The attack comes amid wider regional upheaval. Houthi forces have rapidly advanced along Yemen’s coast, seizing the strategic Mokha port and the Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea, moving closer to the Bab El-Mandab strait. Saudi authorities said the group simultaneously launched dozens of drones and missiles at the southern kingdom on 11 September, striking civilian and economic targets and injuring 73 people.

    Oil analysts and traders reported that Yanbu’s storage capacity, estimated at around 35 million barrels, now holds supplies sufficient for only five to seven days of exports without pipeline operations. Storage facilities at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna and Sidi Kerir ports have similar constraints. Repair timelines remain uncertain, with sources citing estimates ranging from days to five or six weeks.

    The dual disruption of both the pipeline and Red Sea shipping has compressed global energy supplies. Energy analysts warned that without pipeline repairs, oil prices could return to the $120-a-barrel peak reached earlier in the regional conflict.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19641513/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • WSP wins Dammam airport expansion design works

    14 September 2026

    WSP Middle East, the regional arm of Canadian engineering firm WSP, has won a design contract to expand King Fahd International airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

    Dammam Airports Company (DACO) awarded the contract.

    The scope includes designing passenger terminal expansions, facility upgrades, and improvements to airport entrances and access roads.

    It also covers the development of baggage-handling systems, digital services and other associated infrastructure.

    The expansion works will be carried out in line with the airport’s approved masterplan, which targets serving more than 19 million passengers a year by 2030.

    The plan also aims to increase air cargo capacity to more than 600,000 tonnes a year and raise aircraft operational capacity to 77 movements per hour, supported by comprehensive expansions to infrastructure, runways and general aviation facilities.

    This contract forms part of DACO’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the airport ecosystem, enhance operational efficiency, and support the Aviation Programme and Saudi Vision 2030 objectives.

    King Fahd International airport is the kingdom’s third-largest airport by annual passenger traffic, behind Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz International and Riyadh’s King Khaled International.

    DACO was formed in July 2017 to manage, operate and develop King Fahd International airport in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    It was established as part of the broader Saudi Vision 2030 privatisation and economic reform programme to corporatise the aviation sector, increase operational efficiency, upgrade infrastructure, and transition state-run airports into commercially viable, world-class regional aviation hubs.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19639910/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai seeks contractors for multibillion-dollar road scheme

    14 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) is seeking contractors to design and build a multibillion-dollar new road that will run parallel to Sheikh Zayed Road.

    MEED understands that the scope covers the construction of about 30 kilometres (km) of works.

    These include about 15km of viaduct along First Al-Khail Street and more than 14.5km of bridge ramps, along with other associated infrastructure works.

    The RTA floated the expression of interest notice to contractors in early September, with a submission deadline of 10 October.

    The project is another significant initiative aimed at alleviating pressure on the existing Sheikh Zayed Road section from Hadiqa Street to Hessa Street.

    Dubai has previously explored bold concepts to expand capacity on Sheikh Zayed Road, including proposals to introduce double-decker sections to add extra lanes without widening the existing corridor.

    The idea was discussed in the context of rising congestion and limited right-of-way along one of the city’s busiest arterial roads, with elevated decks potentially carrying through-traffic while the existing at-grade lanes served local access.

    The plans ultimately progressed as standalone schemes, with subsequent efforts focusing instead on corridor-wide upgrades, interchange improvements and complementary public transport expansions to manage demand more sustainably.

    The latest project aligns with Dubai’s continued investment in upgrading and expanding its road network to keep pace with rapid population growth and rising commuting demand.

    Planning for growth

    Dubai launched the 2040 Urban Master Plan in March 2021, referencing studies indicating that the emirate’s population will reach 5.8 million by 2040, up from 3.3 million in 2020. The daytime population is set to increase from 4.5 million in 2020 to 7.8 million in 2040.

    In December 2022, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, approved the 20-Minute City Policy as part of the second phase of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. 

    In addition to the road projects, the RTA’s Dubai Metro Blue Line extension and Dubai Metro Gold Line form part of Dubai’s plans to improve residents’ quality of life by cutting journey times, as outlined in the policy.

    The policy aims for residents to have 80% of their daily requirements within a 20-minute journey, on foot or by bicycle. This goal will be achieved by developing integrated service centres with all necessary facilities and increasing population density around mass transit stations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19639621/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal