meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms

7 August 2024

 

The poor state of Kuwait’s public finances was laid bare in late July, when the Ministry of Finance announced it had run up a deficit of KD1.6bn ($5.2bn) for the fiscal year ending on 31 March.

A year earlier, the government had booked a rare budget surplus, following eight straight years in the red, but it seems unlikely that it will be able to return to a surplus any time soon. A combination of lower oil revenues, rising spending commitments and an underpowered non-oil sector means the strain on the public purse is rising rather than falling.

The main culprit for the recent budget shortfall was a 19% drop in oil revenue to KD21.5bn. Non-oil income rose by a little over 1% year-on-year, but at just KD2.1bn it remains a marginal element of the state’s finances.

Even as overall revenues were falling, state spending increased by around 13% to KD25.2bn. The vast majority of that – KD20.4bn – went on public sector wages and subsidies. Capital expenditure accounted for just 8% of the total, at KD1.9bn.

The outcome for the past year was, though, better than some had expected. The local NBK Capital, for example, had predicted a KD3bn deficit. Even so, it highlights how the economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and, by extension, how ill-prepared Kuwait is for a global transition away from hydrocarbons.

While other Gulf governments have been investing heavily in renewable energy projects and seeking to diversify their economies, Kuwait has made negligible progress in these areas.

Structural stagnation

The deficits of the past decade have dealt a significant blow to other elements of the country’s financial health. Speaking at the General Budget Forum in Kuwait in mid-July, Finance Minister Anwar Al-Mudhaf said the assets of the State Reserve Fund had fallen to just KD2bn, down from KD33.6bn a decade earlier.

The persistent failure of the government to push legislation through parliament allowing it to issue more debt has meant that savings have been steadily depleted to cover the budget deficits. The current trend is clearly unsustainable.

Ministry of Finance undersecretary Aseel Al-Munaifi told the same event on 14 July that the size of the budget deficit in the coming years would vary depending on oil prices, but predicted it could total KD26bn over the four years from 2025/26 to 2028/29 – far more than is left in the State Reserve Fund.

Falling oil revenues have also contributed to declines in the country’s GDP. The Washington-based IMF estimates it fell by 2.2% in 2023 and could drop by another 1.4% this year.

Amid all these problems, there have been a few positive signs. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, its lowest level since November 2020, helped by softer prices for food, housing, utilities and transport. UK-based consultancy Oxford Economics predicts it should now stabilise, with a forecast of 2.9% in the coming year.

Kuwait Oil Company also announced a major discovery on 14 July, with an estimated 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas found at the offshore Al-Nokhatha field. More oil reserves will do little to change the economic climate of the country though, particularly when production levels are voluntarily capped under the Opec+ deal.

Controlling spending

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Salah appears to have recognised the need for a more fundamental change in direction, with Al-Mudhaf indicating that more will be done to keep spending under control.

The Ministry of Finance has pencilled in spending of KD24.5bn for the current fiscal year – against revenues of KD18.9bn, meaning a deficit of KD5.6bn. The finance minister has said the government is aiming to keep expenditure at the same level through to 2027/28.

That will be contentious though and may require more political resolve than the government is able to muster. On the other hand, it will find it easier to take unpopular action now than in the past, given the decision by Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah in May to suspend the National Assembly for up to four years, thereby removing a significant block to policy reforms.

The government may also now decide the time is right to follow most of its GCC neighbours and introduce VAT – more than six years after it was introduced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – or other measures such as corporate income tax or ‘sin taxes’ on tobacco and sugary drinks. Such a move could provide a significant boost to non-oil revenues.

“I have been dubious about the prospects of substantial fiscal measures being implemented during the current period while parliament is suspended, given the risk that this would be unpopular and viewed as illegitimate, but the minister’s presentation seems to lay the groundwork for reforms,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.

If the government is to successfully limit its spending over the coming years, it will also need activity to pick up in the private sector, not least to provide more jobs for locals. At the moment, the vast majority of Kuwaitis who are in work are employed by a public sector entity.

The most recent employment market data showed job growth among Kuwaiti nationals of 3.2%, but as NBK Capital pointed out in a report on 23 July, “this was due to a gain in public sector jobs, while private sector employment fell”. Just 15% of working Kuwaitis have jobs in the private sector. Indeed, the public sector wage bill rose by 12% in the most recent financial year.

Al-Mudhaf noted in his comments to the General Budget Forum that public sector salaries are now equivalent to around 30% of Kuwait’s GDP, compared to 7-13% in other GCC states. Among other things, he blamed undisciplined hiring and weak performance evaluations for the rising wage bill.

The situation could get worse before it gets better. Alexander noted that “the expectation is that the pending reforms to equalise employment grades across the public sector will boost salary costs even further”.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12289430/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Egypt signs $420m Gabal El-Zeit wind agreements

    10 June 2026

    Egypt has signed agreements worth $420m for the investment, operation and power purchase of the 580MW Gabal El-Zeit wind power complex in the Red Sea region.

    Gabal El-Zeit 1 has a capacity of 240MW, while Gabal El-Zeit 2 and 3 have capacities of 220MW and 120MW, respectively.

    The agreements were signed between Egypt’s New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) and Dubai-based Alcazar Energy.

    Under the agreements, Alcazar Energy will invest in, operate and manage the farms through a project company established under Egyptian law.

    The company will be responsible for technical operations, maintenance and efficiency upgrades while maintaining a minimum capacity of 580MW throughout the contract period.

    The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company will purchase the electricity generated by the plant.

    The agreements follow earlier efforts to privatise the Gabal El-Zeit wind complex, involving a deal with UK-headquartered private equity firm Actis.

    According to the Egyptian government, the project supports the country’s state ownership policy and national energy strategy, which aim to increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix to 45%.

    The Gabal El-Zeit area on Egypt’s Red Sea coast is one of the country’s most established wind power development zones. The latest Gabal El-Zeit wind farm was completed in 2014, according to MEED Projects data. Germany’s Siemens Gamesa was the main contractor. 

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17170360/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Majid Al-Futtaim awards $545m Ghaf Woods contract to ECC

    10 June 2026

    Majid Al-Futtaim Properties has appointed Engineering Contracting Company (ECC) as the main contractor for the Capria East, Capria West and Maravelle Residences developments at its Ghaf Woods community in Dubai, in a deal valued at AED2bn ($545m).

    The contract covers the construction of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and duplex residences across the two Capria clusters.

    The award adds to a series of major construction contracts Majid Al-Futtaim has issued across its Dubai communities in recent years.

    In May, local contractor Al-Sahel Contracting was awarded a AED700m contract for the Distrikt development, also at Ghaf Woods.

    In 2024, Majid Al-Futtaim awarded AED3bn in contracts for its Tilal Al-Ghaf community, appointing Innovo Build to build 94 waterfront villas at Elysian Mansions and United Engineering Construction (Unec) to deliver 130 villas at the Alaya development.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17170744/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign railway agreements

    10 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have signed two memorandums of understanding (MoUs) to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the railway and logistics sectors, advancing Riyadh’s ambitions to become a global logistics hub.

    Transport and Logistics Services Minister Saleh Al-Jasser and Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu signed the agreements at the ministry’s headquarters in Riyadh on 9 June, following ministerial talks held with a high-level Turkish delegation. Transport General Authority president Fawaz Al-Sahli and officials from the kingdom’s transport and logistics sector were also present.

    Agreement scope

    The first MoU covers logistics services and operations, including the exchange of expertise, policies and regulations. The second focuses on railway technologies, signalling and communication systems, railway digitalisation, human capacity development, the localisation of the railway industry and measures to reduce the sector’s environmental impact.

    More broadly, the agreements cover cooperation on railway standards and related innovations, the exchange of expertise on the design, operation and maintenance of rail projects, and engineering, infrastructure and safety standards.

    The two sides will also cooperate on research and development, with provision for joint workforce training through specialist railway academies.

    Riyadh said the agreements will help support its National Strategy for Transport and Logistics Services and Saudi Vision 2030, which seeks to position the kingdom as a logistics bridge connecting three continents.

    Turkish projects

    Turkish contractors have already established themselves as key players in the region’s rail sector. In 2012, Yapi Merkezi secured a $2.1bn contract for work on the Haramain high-speed rail network in Saudi Arabia, while Turkish firms Mapa and Limak are leading the ongoing civil works on Dubai’s $5.5bn Metro Blue Line project as part of a China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC) consortium. Turkish consultancy Proyapi Muhendislik ve Musavirlik Anonim Sirketi has also won design contracts for the 111km Kuwait National Rail Road project.

    The agreements signed by Saudi Arabia and Turkiye may also give momentum to longstanding discussions around a rail corridor linking the GCC with Turkiye. The route, which has been discussed for years, has gained renewed impetus in recent months as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed regional governments to accelerate the development of overland trade alternatives.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17169958/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Joint venture tenders Algeria field development contract

    10 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Hassi Bir Rekaiz Group (GHBR), which operates Algeria’s Hassi Bir Rekaiz field, has issued a tender for phase 2A of the asset’s field development project.

    GHBR is a joint venture of Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach and Thailand’s national exploration and production company PTTEP.

    The scope of the contract focuses on the “provision of engineering and supervision services”, according to documents published by Sonatrach.

    The tender has been issued with a bid deadline of 16 June 2026.

    In May, GHBR signed a $1.1bn contract for phase two of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz development project.

    The contract was won by a consortium of Egypt’s Petrojet and Italian engineering and contracting company Arkad.

    Petrojet’s portion of the project was estimated to be worth around $600m, and Arkad’s portion was estimated to be worth $500m.

    The contract used the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model.

    The scope of the project contract is focused on the construction of a central processing facility (CPF) capable of processing crude oil and associated gas.

    It also includes developing off-plot pipelines, as well as related utilities and infrastructure.

    The CPF will have the capacity to process 32,000 barrels a day (b/d) and will be designed to support future expansions.

    The related infrastructure will include an extensive pipeline network spanning approximately 217 kilometres, as well as a road network.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17163750/main3325.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Algeria extends deadline for urea-formaldehyde project

    10 June 2026

     

    Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach has extended the bid deadline for a project to develop a new concentrated urea-formaldehyde unit in its Arzew industrial zone.

    The latest bid deadline is 15 June.  

    The contract uses the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model, and the bid deadline for technical tender submissions was originally set for early April.

    The condensed urea-formaldehyde unit will be located at the CP1-Z facility.

    The CP1-Z facility began operations in 1975 and has a capacity of 152,000 tonnes a year. It produces products including methanol, resin and formol.

    It is a two-phase tender. The first phase is a technical bid submission, and the second phase is a commercial bid submission.

    To be eligible to win this contract, companies must specialise in petrochemical industrial installation projects.

    They also need to have a share capital of at least $7m and more than 15 years of relevant experience.

    The new unit, UFC85, will have the capacity to produce 40,000 metric tonnes of concentrated and condensed urea-formaldehyde annually.

    The project’s scope also includes the development of auxiliary equipment and installations.

    Urea-formaldehyde has a wide range of uses, including the production of laminates, textiles and paper.

    In the wood industry, it is used as a thermosetting adhesive to bond wood to create plywood and particleboard. In agriculture, urea-formaldehyde is widely used as a slow-release fertiliser.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17163657/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp