meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms

7 August 2024

 

The poor state of Kuwait’s public finances was laid bare in late July, when the Ministry of Finance announced it had run up a deficit of KD1.6bn ($5.2bn) for the fiscal year ending on 31 March.

A year earlier, the government had booked a rare budget surplus, following eight straight years in the red, but it seems unlikely that it will be able to return to a surplus any time soon. A combination of lower oil revenues, rising spending commitments and an underpowered non-oil sector means the strain on the public purse is rising rather than falling.

The main culprit for the recent budget shortfall was a 19% drop in oil revenue to KD21.5bn. Non-oil income rose by a little over 1% year-on-year, but at just KD2.1bn it remains a marginal element of the state’s finances.

Even as overall revenues were falling, state spending increased by around 13% to KD25.2bn. The vast majority of that – KD20.4bn – went on public sector wages and subsidies. Capital expenditure accounted for just 8% of the total, at KD1.9bn.

The outcome for the past year was, though, better than some had expected. The local NBK Capital, for example, had predicted a KD3bn deficit. Even so, it highlights how the economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and, by extension, how ill-prepared Kuwait is for a global transition away from hydrocarbons.

While other Gulf governments have been investing heavily in renewable energy projects and seeking to diversify their economies, Kuwait has made negligible progress in these areas.

Structural stagnation

The deficits of the past decade have dealt a significant blow to other elements of the country’s financial health. Speaking at the General Budget Forum in Kuwait in mid-July, Finance Minister Anwar Al-Mudhaf said the assets of the State Reserve Fund had fallen to just KD2bn, down from KD33.6bn a decade earlier.

The persistent failure of the government to push legislation through parliament allowing it to issue more debt has meant that savings have been steadily depleted to cover the budget deficits. The current trend is clearly unsustainable.

Ministry of Finance undersecretary Aseel Al-Munaifi told the same event on 14 July that the size of the budget deficit in the coming years would vary depending on oil prices, but predicted it could total KD26bn over the four years from 2025/26 to 2028/29 – far more than is left in the State Reserve Fund.

Falling oil revenues have also contributed to declines in the country’s GDP. The Washington-based IMF estimates it fell by 2.2% in 2023 and could drop by another 1.4% this year.

Amid all these problems, there have been a few positive signs. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, its lowest level since November 2020, helped by softer prices for food, housing, utilities and transport. UK-based consultancy Oxford Economics predicts it should now stabilise, with a forecast of 2.9% in the coming year.

Kuwait Oil Company also announced a major discovery on 14 July, with an estimated 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas found at the offshore Al-Nokhatha field. More oil reserves will do little to change the economic climate of the country though, particularly when production levels are voluntarily capped under the Opec+ deal.

Controlling spending

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Salah appears to have recognised the need for a more fundamental change in direction, with Al-Mudhaf indicating that more will be done to keep spending under control.

The Ministry of Finance has pencilled in spending of KD24.5bn for the current fiscal year – against revenues of KD18.9bn, meaning a deficit of KD5.6bn. The finance minister has said the government is aiming to keep expenditure at the same level through to 2027/28.

That will be contentious though and may require more political resolve than the government is able to muster. On the other hand, it will find it easier to take unpopular action now than in the past, given the decision by Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah in May to suspend the National Assembly for up to four years, thereby removing a significant block to policy reforms.

The government may also now decide the time is right to follow most of its GCC neighbours and introduce VAT – more than six years after it was introduced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – or other measures such as corporate income tax or ‘sin taxes’ on tobacco and sugary drinks. Such a move could provide a significant boost to non-oil revenues.

“I have been dubious about the prospects of substantial fiscal measures being implemented during the current period while parliament is suspended, given the risk that this would be unpopular and viewed as illegitimate, but the minister’s presentation seems to lay the groundwork for reforms,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.

If the government is to successfully limit its spending over the coming years, it will also need activity to pick up in the private sector, not least to provide more jobs for locals. At the moment, the vast majority of Kuwaitis who are in work are employed by a public sector entity.

The most recent employment market data showed job growth among Kuwaiti nationals of 3.2%, but as NBK Capital pointed out in a report on 23 July, “this was due to a gain in public sector jobs, while private sector employment fell”. Just 15% of working Kuwaitis have jobs in the private sector. Indeed, the public sector wage bill rose by 12% in the most recent financial year.

Al-Mudhaf noted in his comments to the General Budget Forum that public sector salaries are now equivalent to around 30% of Kuwait’s GDP, compared to 7-13% in other GCC states. Among other things, he blamed undisciplined hiring and weak performance evaluations for the rising wage bill.

The situation could get worse before it gets better. Alexander noted that “the expectation is that the pending reforms to equalise employment grades across the public sector will boost salary costs even further”.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12289430/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Combined Group signs Kuwait upstream contract

    4 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Kuwait-headquartered Combined Group Contracting Company has signed a contract to repair and revamp production facilities in West Kuwait, according to a company statement.

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) awarded the contract, valued at KD9.7m ($31.4m).

    The contract has a five-year term.

    KOC issued the invitation to bid on 5 October 2025. The initial bid deadline was 4 January 2026, and a pre-tender meeting was scheduled for 4 November 2025.

    The contract award to Combined Group was approved on 13 September 2026.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector is currently in the midst of a major crisis, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced exported crude oil volumes.

    The disruptions are the result of a regional war that started on 28 February when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

    The disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are also creating significant challenges for oil and gas construction projects, which normally import equipment and materials through the waterway.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21120792/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Aramco Q3 profit rises 9% despite attacks on facilities

    3 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Aramco reported a 9% year-on-year increase in adjusted net income to $31.2bn in the third quarter of 2026, supported by stronger financial performance across its businesses, particularly downstream operations, and despite persistent attacks by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels on its facilities across the kingdom.

    The company’s revenue and other income from sales reached $140.492bn in Q3 2026, up from $111.509bn in the same period last year. 

    Downstream adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (ebit) increased by 234% year-on-year, reflecting stronger refining margins.

    Cash flow from operating activities increased to $38.7bn in Q3, compared to $36.1bn a year earlier, while free cash flow rose to $28.2bn from $23.6bn over the same period.

    The company maintained a gearing ratio of 5.5% at the end of the first nine months of the year, compared to 6.2% at the end of the first half of the year.

    Return on average capital employed in Q3 remained the same as in the previous quarter at 22.1%.

    Aramco’s capital expenditure in Q3 2026 declined to $10.52bn from $12.55bn in the same period last year, while capex in the first nine months of the year stood at $35.78bn.

    Commenting on the Q3 financial results, Aramco’s president and CEO, Amin H Nasser, said: “Geopolitical uncertainty and attacks on key energy facilities continued to amplify the global energy supply crisis in the third quarter of 2026, with serious implications for global energy security.

    “Despite challenges, the unwavering dedication of our workforce, our operational excellence, the flexibility of our system and the strength of a supply network built over decades enabled us to continue delivering reliably to our customers through this extraordinary period.

    “We continue to explore additional overseas storage capacity and alternative export routes to further strengthen our global supply network, and our robust operational and financial performance during this volatile period demonstrates the value of our resilience.

    “Backed by our strong balance sheet, we remain focused on the disciplined execution of priority projects and on leveraging advanced technologies to enhance performance and unlock new opportunities. This is how we will continue to meet the world’s evolving energy needs and deliver value for our shareholders and customers.”

    ALSO READ: Sabic swings back to profit in Q3 with $224m net income

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21121169/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • UAE monitors desalination plants after oil spill

    3 November 2026

    State utility Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) says it is monitoring seawater quality at desalination plant intake points following an oil spill off the UAE's northern coast.

    In a statement, the utility said it is continuing to "implement proactive measures to safeguard the water production system" following the spread of an oil slick towards coastal areas in the emirates of Umm Al-Quwain, Ras Al-Khaimah, Ajman and Sharjah.

    The spill involved the tanker Gem No. 2, which was struck by a projectile in UAE territorial waters on 9 October. The resulting oil pollution has raised concerns over potential contamination of seawater used by desalination plants along the northern coast.

    EtihadWE said its measures include continuous monitoring of seawater quality at plant intake points, regular testing of produced and distributed water, and verification of compliance with approved standards before water enters the distribution network.

    The utility added that the precautionary measures will not affect the continuity of water supplies to consumers in the Northern Emirates.

    In an earlier update on 30 October, the Climate Change & Environment Ministry said the oil slick was concentrated off the coast of Umm Al-Quwain, extending partially towards coastal areas in Ras Al-Khaimah, Ajman and Sharjah.

    The ministry said the concentration of pollution had declined significantly and that the leak had been stopped at source. However, surveying, monitoring and clean-up operations are continuing in affected coastal areas.

    The Energy & Infrastructure Ministry said specialised technical teams are continuing work to address technical issues with the tanker, including repairing damaged sections, restoring operational systems and assessing the integrity of its structure.

    The proximity of the oil slick to the Naqa'a desalination plant in Umm Al-Quwain has drawn particular attention. According to media reports, the slick approached to within approximately 2 kilometres of the facility.

    Naqa'a has a production capacity of 150 million imperial gallons a day, equivalent to approximately 682,000 cubic metres a day. The plant supplies water to the Northern Emirates and has been operational since 2022.

    It is owned by Naqa'a Desalination Plant, a special-purpose vehicle established by Mubadala, Acwa and the former Federal Electricity & Water Authority, now known as EtihadWE.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21104534/main3427.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Oman signs 1GW battery storage agreement

    3 November 2026

    Oman's Nama Holding, a subsidiary of Oman Investment Authority (OIA), has signed a framework agreement with China's State Grid International Development to develop battery energy storage systems (bess) with a targeted capacity of 1GW.

    The agreement covers two battery storage systems, each with a capacity of 500MW, at Duqm Industrial Station and Al-Subaikhi (Ibri Solar 3) Station.

    It is understood that both systems will operate at 400kV and connect to Oman's national electricity transmission grid.

    The deal is part of a package of economic and investment agreements signed by OIA with Chinese institutions and companies during the Oman-China conference on 2 November. OIA put the combined value of the bess projects at approximately RO384.5m ($1bn).

    The agreement comes as Oman advances plans to expand its renewable energy capacity and strengthen the electricity transmission network.

    Nama Power & Water Procurement Company is also procuring a separate 950MW standalone bess programme comprising five facilities in the sultanate, as MEED exclusively reported.

    The wider package of agreements, signed during Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq's state visit to China, covers sectors including renewable energy, mining, logistics, digital transformation and space technology.

    In the wind energy sector, Oman's O-Green and Shanghai Electric Wind Power signed a strategic partnership to establish a joint research and development centre and wind turbine testing facility at the Mawarid turbine factory in Duqm.

    The partnership will focus on adapting turbine technologies to Gulf climate conditions, supporting local manufacturing and developing green ammonia projects in Oman.

    The partnership is valued at RO3.85m-RO7.69m ($10m-$20m). It also identifies potential future contracts exceeding $1bn, alongside green ammonia projects and initial investment commitments in Oman exceeding $200m.

    In solar, OIA signed a preliminary term sheet with Chinese firms PCG Power and Hoymiles for a partnership valued at RO38.45m ($100m).

    The partnership aims to develop solar energy projects in Oman and establish a solar inverter manufacturing facility serving markets in the Middle East and North Africa.

    It is also intended to support the localisation of solar-related industries, expand domestic production and develop export markets.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21102638/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Consultants bid for Roshn’s north Riyadh scheme

    3 November 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Roshn Group has received proposals from lead design consultants for its planned flagship development in north Riyadh.

    Consultants submitted proposals on 1 November for detailed design, tender documentation and construction documents for the project’s first plot.

    The planned development covers 13.7 square kilometres and will be a residential-led mixed-use scheme containing retail, office, hospitality, education and civic facilities.

    The consultancy scope for plot one includes infrastructure, utilities, public-realm works and the site adaptation of Roshn’s residential prototypes. It has been divided into two work packages.

    The first package covers phases A, B and E, which cover about 7.8 million square metres (sq m) and will include 17,000 units.

    The second package covers phases C and D, covering about 4.7 million sq m and with more than 15,000 units.

    The site is bordered by the Expo 2030 site, King Abdulaziz Park, the Sports Innovation Lab Zone and National Housing Company’s Khozam development.

    Transport connectivity is a key element of the masterplan. Two metro stations are planned, including a station at the interchange between the existing Line 4 and planned Line 7, and a dedicated Line 7 station. The development could also be served by the planned Qiddiya high-speed rail link and a potential diversion of King Salman Road.

    The scheme will add to Roshn’s existing development pipeline in Riyadh, which includes the multi-phase Sedra community. The developer is expanding its focus from single-family housing to larger mixed-use districts under its Roshn 3.0 strategy.

    Last month, Roshn signed a preliminary agreement with TMG Saudi, the local subsidiary of Egypt’s Talaat Moustafa Group, to establish a joint venture to explore a separate mixed-use project in Riyadh.

    TMG Saudi will hold a 51% stake in the proposed joint venture and Roshn will hold the remaining 49%. The companies said they will undertake detailed masterplanning and prepare a business case for the project, which preliminary studies indicate could include more than 55,000 residential units.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21101503/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal