meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms

7 August 2024

 

The poor state of Kuwait’s public finances was laid bare in late July, when the Ministry of Finance announced it had run up a deficit of KD1.6bn ($5.2bn) for the fiscal year ending on 31 March.

A year earlier, the government had booked a rare budget surplus, following eight straight years in the red, but it seems unlikely that it will be able to return to a surplus any time soon. A combination of lower oil revenues, rising spending commitments and an underpowered non-oil sector means the strain on the public purse is rising rather than falling.

The main culprit for the recent budget shortfall was a 19% drop in oil revenue to KD21.5bn. Non-oil income rose by a little over 1% year-on-year, but at just KD2.1bn it remains a marginal element of the state’s finances.

Even as overall revenues were falling, state spending increased by around 13% to KD25.2bn. The vast majority of that – KD20.4bn – went on public sector wages and subsidies. Capital expenditure accounted for just 8% of the total, at KD1.9bn.

The outcome for the past year was, though, better than some had expected. The local NBK Capital, for example, had predicted a KD3bn deficit. Even so, it highlights how the economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and, by extension, how ill-prepared Kuwait is for a global transition away from hydrocarbons.

While other Gulf governments have been investing heavily in renewable energy projects and seeking to diversify their economies, Kuwait has made negligible progress in these areas.

Structural stagnation

The deficits of the past decade have dealt a significant blow to other elements of the country’s financial health. Speaking at the General Budget Forum in Kuwait in mid-July, Finance Minister Anwar Al-Mudhaf said the assets of the State Reserve Fund had fallen to just KD2bn, down from KD33.6bn a decade earlier.

The persistent failure of the government to push legislation through parliament allowing it to issue more debt has meant that savings have been steadily depleted to cover the budget deficits. The current trend is clearly unsustainable.

Ministry of Finance undersecretary Aseel Al-Munaifi told the same event on 14 July that the size of the budget deficit in the coming years would vary depending on oil prices, but predicted it could total KD26bn over the four years from 2025/26 to 2028/29 – far more than is left in the State Reserve Fund.

Falling oil revenues have also contributed to declines in the country’s GDP. The Washington-based IMF estimates it fell by 2.2% in 2023 and could drop by another 1.4% this year.

Amid all these problems, there have been a few positive signs. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, its lowest level since November 2020, helped by softer prices for food, housing, utilities and transport. UK-based consultancy Oxford Economics predicts it should now stabilise, with a forecast of 2.9% in the coming year.

Kuwait Oil Company also announced a major discovery on 14 July, with an estimated 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas found at the offshore Al-Nokhatha field. More oil reserves will do little to change the economic climate of the country though, particularly when production levels are voluntarily capped under the Opec+ deal.

Controlling spending

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Salah appears to have recognised the need for a more fundamental change in direction, with Al-Mudhaf indicating that more will be done to keep spending under control.

The Ministry of Finance has pencilled in spending of KD24.5bn for the current fiscal year – against revenues of KD18.9bn, meaning a deficit of KD5.6bn. The finance minister has said the government is aiming to keep expenditure at the same level through to 2027/28.

That will be contentious though and may require more political resolve than the government is able to muster. On the other hand, it will find it easier to take unpopular action now than in the past, given the decision by Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah in May to suspend the National Assembly for up to four years, thereby removing a significant block to policy reforms.

The government may also now decide the time is right to follow most of its GCC neighbours and introduce VAT – more than six years after it was introduced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – or other measures such as corporate income tax or ‘sin taxes’ on tobacco and sugary drinks. Such a move could provide a significant boost to non-oil revenues.

“I have been dubious about the prospects of substantial fiscal measures being implemented during the current period while parliament is suspended, given the risk that this would be unpopular and viewed as illegitimate, but the minister’s presentation seems to lay the groundwork for reforms,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.

If the government is to successfully limit its spending over the coming years, it will also need activity to pick up in the private sector, not least to provide more jobs for locals. At the moment, the vast majority of Kuwaitis who are in work are employed by a public sector entity.

The most recent employment market data showed job growth among Kuwaiti nationals of 3.2%, but as NBK Capital pointed out in a report on 23 July, “this was due to a gain in public sector jobs, while private sector employment fell”. Just 15% of working Kuwaitis have jobs in the private sector. Indeed, the public sector wage bill rose by 12% in the most recent financial year.

Al-Mudhaf noted in his comments to the General Budget Forum that public sector salaries are now equivalent to around 30% of Kuwait’s GDP, compared to 7-13% in other GCC states. Among other things, he blamed undisciplined hiring and weak performance evaluations for the rising wage bill.

The situation could get worse before it gets better. Alexander noted that “the expectation is that the pending reforms to equalise employment grades across the public sector will boost salary costs even further”.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12289430/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia approves new procurement law

    17 August 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers has approved a new Government Tenders and Procurement Law (GTPL), introducing changes to public procurement procedures and government contracting.

    The Ministry of Finance announced the approval on 5 August.

    The new law aims to strengthen governance and transparency, improve procurement planning and implementation, and promote fairness and equal opportunities in government contracting.

    The changes give government entities greater flexibility in procurement while introducing new provisions that could affect contractors and suppliers, including contract variations, outstanding payments and procurement procedures.

    Contract flexibility

    According to a Ministry of Finance summary of the key amendments, one of the main changes allows government entities to increase existing contract items by up to 20% of the contract value. Contractor approval is required for increases exceeding 10%, while the total increase from adding new items or increasing existing items cannot exceed 20% of the contract value.

    The amendments also introduce measures addressing outstanding payments to contractors. A government entity cannot make a new award when it has outstanding amounts owed to contractors for works or procurement and the required procedures have not been taken, after notification from the Ministry of Finance.

    Exceptions apply where non-payment relates to ministry procedures or where the government entity has taken the required action on a claim but does not have sufficient budget allocations.

    Single committee

    Under the new law, the committees responsible for opening and examining bids will be merged into a single committee.

    The maximum value for direct procurement will rise from SR100,000 ($26,700) to SR1m ($267,000) while government entities will be required to explain and document their use of direct procurement.

    Direct procurement will also be permitted in cases involving research, development and innovation and certain contracts with professional practitioners.

    The amendments reduce the minimum standstill period following a procurement award from five working days to three working days. Government entities will also be able to negotiate where the best bid exceeds the estimated cost plus the permitted contingency.

    Localisation

    The new framework includes provisions covering industrial localisation and knowledge transfer. The Ministry of Finance said it will issue rules for contracting for these purposes in cooperation with the Local Content and Government Procurement Authority.

    A new regulation will also cover research, development and innovation, including tendering and contracting provisions for these activities.

    Other changes involve contractors’ exposure to penalties. The maximum delay penalty on contracts, excluding supply contracts, will fall from 20% to 15% of contract value. The maximum penalty for non-performance in continuous-performance contracts will also fall from 20% to 15%.

    The value of purchases exempt from providing a final guarantee will rise from SR100,000 ($26,700) to SR300,000 ($80,000). Additional exemptions will apply to contracts with professional practitioners and emergency or urgent cases.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18805103/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • GCC reviews first phase of water interconnection study

    17 August 2026

    The GCC General Secretariat has completed the first phase of a study examining the feasibility of developing water interconnection projects between GCC member states.

    A two-day workshop reviewing the study’s findings concluded on 12 August at the headquarters of the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

    The GCC General Secretariat organised the workshop in cooperation with GCCIA, with representatives from relevant authorities and experts in water, infrastructure and water security taking part.

    Participants reviewed the first phase findings, including an assessment of existing water supply infrastructure and the actual water needs of GCC member states. They also discussed the technical requirements and data needed to complete the study.

    The study is intended to identify practical options and feasible solutions for developing a regional water interconnection network. This includes establishing an implementation roadmap.

    The initiative aims to improve the GCC states’ ability to respond to emergencies and crises and support continuity of water supplies.

    First meeting

    The workshop followed a virtual meeting on 22 July between the GCC General Secretariat and Saudi Arabia’s water authorities as part of the study.

    That meeting, which also involved consultancy Artelia, reviewed the study’s methodology and implementation stages. These include assessing existing water systems across GCC states, their resilience and emergency readiness, and developing technical options for bilateral water interconnection projects.

    In Saudi Arabia, the study is focused primarily on the Eastern Province and Riyadh. It is assessing water production and desalination facilities, transmission pipelines, strategic reservoirs, pumping stations and existing and planned projects.

    The study is also examining potential bilateral connections between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, as well as the possibility of a connection with the UAE.

    The 22 July meeting also discussed potential connection points and routes, water flow directions and the possibility of designing interconnection pipelines to operate in both directions.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18802726/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Neom’s next phase is crucial to green hydrogen pipeline

    17 August 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    The completion of construction at Neom Green Hydrogen comes at an important point for Saudi Arabia’s wider hydrogen ambitions.

    The project has already shown that a large green hydrogen scheme can secure financing by reaching financial close in 2023 with long-term offtake from Air Products.

    With the facility now moving into commissioning ahead of a targeted commercial operations date next year, Neom could soon give lenders and developers real evidence on the performance, costs and risks of a large-scale green hydrogen project.

    That could be important for projects still moving through development. Acwa’s Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub, for example, is targeting commercial operations in 2030.

    The project has brought in Germany’s EnBW as a co-developer and minority investor and Japan’s Itochu as a co-developer, investor and offtaker. Acwa is targeting production of 2.5 million tonnes a year of green ammonia from the hub.

    Saudi Arabia is also putting more of the framework around the industry in place. In July, the government granted Acwa exclusive rights to export green hydrogen produced in the kingdom along with its derivatives, including green ammonia, methanol and fuels.

    However, partnerships and policy support alone will not remove the commercial questions facing projects. Yanbu still needs to progress through development and secure the financing needed to move into construction.

    Neom’s financing structure and 30-year offtake may be specific to the project, but its operating performance should give future developers and lenders a clearer reference point for assessing production, reliability and costs.

    While Neom will not make the next projects bankable on its own, if it stays on track and performs as expected, it could give lenders a stronger basis for assessing projects that follow. In the long-run, this could be one of its most important contributions.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18800285/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Five bid for King Salman Bay construction work

    17 August 2026

     

    Five teams have submitted bids for the contract covering the marine infrastructure works at King Salman Bay on the Red Sea coast, north of Jeddah.

    MEED understands that the bids were submitted on 31 July.

    The bidders include:

    • Deme / Archirodon (Belgium/Netherlands)
    • ⁠Van Oord (Netherlands)
    • ⁠Abdulmohsen Altamimi / NMDC Group (local/UAE)
    • ⁠Urbacon / Negida Contracting  (Qatar/Egypt )
    • ⁠Modern Building Leaders / China Harbour (local/China)

    The scope includes dredging and earthworks, as well as quay wall and edge protection works spanning about 11 kilometres.

    King Salman Bay is expected to be a waterfront development that aims to reshape the city’s northern Red Sea frontage into a mixed-use destination, anchored by public-realm improvements and leisure-led development.

    Saudi gigaproject developer Red Sea Global (RSG) is developing the project.

    The latest development follows RSG’s award of an estimated SR100m ($27m) contract to construct a solid waste management centre at its Red Sea Project. The scope includes four buildings: a materials recycling facility, a transfer station, an administration building and a vehicle maintenance building.

    In October last year, MEED reported that RSG had secured a SR6.5bn ($1.7bn) credit facility to further develop Amaala, its luxury tourism destination on Saudi Arabia’s northwestern Red Sea coast.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18800910/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • PDO allows more time for Al-Ghubar field project prices

    17 August 2026

     

    Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has allowed contractors additional time to prepare commercial bids for a project to build a new facility to handle additional oil production from the Al-Ghubar field in the sultanate.

    The Al-Ghubar field is located in the Ghaba Salt Basin at Qarn Alam, within majority state-owned PDO’s Block 6 concession area.

    The Al-Ghubar gas-oil gravity drainage (GOGD) facility will be designed as a sour (hydrogen sulphide) facility and is expected to handle maximum oil production of 1,800 standard cubic metres a day (cm/d), a maximum total water flow rate of 10,421 standard cm/d, and maximum gas lift of 256,934 standard cm/d. Production from the planned Al-Ghubar GOGD facility will be exported to PDO’s main oil line.

    Following receipt of the technical bids for the project in July, PDO granted contractors additional time – until 16 August – to submit commercial bids for the project, MEED recently reported.

    The project operator has now extended the deadline for submitting commercial bids to 1 September, sources told MEED.

    PDO floated the tender for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project in March, setting an initial bid submission deadline of 4 May, MEED previously reported.

    PDO later extended the deadlines for submission of technical and commercial bids to 26 July and 7 August, respectively. Contractors submitted technical proposals by the revised deadline, according to sources.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the project:

    • Archirodon (Greece)
    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Egypt) / Petrojet (Egypt)
    • Jereh (China)
    • Kent (UAE)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)

    The scope of work on the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project covers the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of the following:

    • On-plot scope consists of:
      • Production separator  
      • Test separator  
      • Concentric wash tank
      • Wet oil pump
      • Water bath heater
      • Surge tank
      • Gas injection/gas lift compressor (centrifugal)
      • Utilities (Instrument Air compressors, chemical injection skids, drain system, vent system) 
      • Suction scrubber
      • Air coolers
      • Discharge scrubbers
      • Condensate flash drum
      • Atmospheric pressure knock-out drum 
      • Flare system
      • Gas heater
      • Water disposal pump
      • Oil shipping pump
      • New 132kV substation and plant substation (housing 6.6kV & 415-Volt switchboard)
      • New control room
         
    • Off-plot scope consists of:
      • Off-plot pipeline network (bulk header, test header, gathering infrastructure/ gathering line header, instrument air header, water disposal header)
      • Two remote manifold stations 
      • Tie-in connection to main oil line
      • Tie-in to gas network pipeline

    PDO previously intended to tender the Al-Ghubar GOGD project under its framework structure with selected EPC contractors, but eventually tendered it separately.

    PDO is the operator of the Block 6 hydrocarbons concession in Oman, which is the sultanate’s largest and most prolific concession. Situated onshore and covering an area of 75,119 square kilometres, Block 6 contains 202 oil fields and 43 gas fields, with PDO producing a total of approximately 680,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil and condensates from those fields.

    The Omani government holds a 60% stake in PDO through Energy Development Oman (EDO). The other shareholders are UK-based Shell (34%), France’s TotalEnergies (4%) and Thailand’s state-owned PTTEP (2%).

    ALSO READ: PDO floats tender for major flare gas monetisation scheme
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18799485/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen