meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms

7 August 2024

 

The poor state of Kuwait’s public finances was laid bare in late July, when the Ministry of Finance announced it had run up a deficit of KD1.6bn ($5.2bn) for the fiscal year ending on 31 March.

A year earlier, the government had booked a rare budget surplus, following eight straight years in the red, but it seems unlikely that it will be able to return to a surplus any time soon. A combination of lower oil revenues, rising spending commitments and an underpowered non-oil sector means the strain on the public purse is rising rather than falling.

The main culprit for the recent budget shortfall was a 19% drop in oil revenue to KD21.5bn. Non-oil income rose by a little over 1% year-on-year, but at just KD2.1bn it remains a marginal element of the state’s finances.

Even as overall revenues were falling, state spending increased by around 13% to KD25.2bn. The vast majority of that – KD20.4bn – went on public sector wages and subsidies. Capital expenditure accounted for just 8% of the total, at KD1.9bn.

The outcome for the past year was, though, better than some had expected. The local NBK Capital, for example, had predicted a KD3bn deficit. Even so, it highlights how the economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and, by extension, how ill-prepared Kuwait is for a global transition away from hydrocarbons.

While other Gulf governments have been investing heavily in renewable energy projects and seeking to diversify their economies, Kuwait has made negligible progress in these areas.

Structural stagnation

The deficits of the past decade have dealt a significant blow to other elements of the country’s financial health. Speaking at the General Budget Forum in Kuwait in mid-July, Finance Minister Anwar Al-Mudhaf said the assets of the State Reserve Fund had fallen to just KD2bn, down from KD33.6bn a decade earlier.

The persistent failure of the government to push legislation through parliament allowing it to issue more debt has meant that savings have been steadily depleted to cover the budget deficits. The current trend is clearly unsustainable.

Ministry of Finance undersecretary Aseel Al-Munaifi told the same event on 14 July that the size of the budget deficit in the coming years would vary depending on oil prices, but predicted it could total KD26bn over the four years from 2025/26 to 2028/29 – far more than is left in the State Reserve Fund.

Falling oil revenues have also contributed to declines in the country’s GDP. The Washington-based IMF estimates it fell by 2.2% in 2023 and could drop by another 1.4% this year.

Amid all these problems, there have been a few positive signs. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, its lowest level since November 2020, helped by softer prices for food, housing, utilities and transport. UK-based consultancy Oxford Economics predicts it should now stabilise, with a forecast of 2.9% in the coming year.

Kuwait Oil Company also announced a major discovery on 14 July, with an estimated 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas found at the offshore Al-Nokhatha field. More oil reserves will do little to change the economic climate of the country though, particularly when production levels are voluntarily capped under the Opec+ deal.

Controlling spending

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Salah appears to have recognised the need for a more fundamental change in direction, with Al-Mudhaf indicating that more will be done to keep spending under control.

The Ministry of Finance has pencilled in spending of KD24.5bn for the current fiscal year – against revenues of KD18.9bn, meaning a deficit of KD5.6bn. The finance minister has said the government is aiming to keep expenditure at the same level through to 2027/28.

That will be contentious though and may require more political resolve than the government is able to muster. On the other hand, it will find it easier to take unpopular action now than in the past, given the decision by Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah in May to suspend the National Assembly for up to four years, thereby removing a significant block to policy reforms.

The government may also now decide the time is right to follow most of its GCC neighbours and introduce VAT – more than six years after it was introduced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – or other measures such as corporate income tax or ‘sin taxes’ on tobacco and sugary drinks. Such a move could provide a significant boost to non-oil revenues.

“I have been dubious about the prospects of substantial fiscal measures being implemented during the current period while parliament is suspended, given the risk that this would be unpopular and viewed as illegitimate, but the minister’s presentation seems to lay the groundwork for reforms,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.

If the government is to successfully limit its spending over the coming years, it will also need activity to pick up in the private sector, not least to provide more jobs for locals. At the moment, the vast majority of Kuwaitis who are in work are employed by a public sector entity.

The most recent employment market data showed job growth among Kuwaiti nationals of 3.2%, but as NBK Capital pointed out in a report on 23 July, “this was due to a gain in public sector jobs, while private sector employment fell”. Just 15% of working Kuwaitis have jobs in the private sector. Indeed, the public sector wage bill rose by 12% in the most recent financial year.

Al-Mudhaf noted in his comments to the General Budget Forum that public sector salaries are now equivalent to around 30% of Kuwait’s GDP, compared to 7-13% in other GCC states. Among other things, he blamed undisciplined hiring and weak performance evaluations for the rising wage bill.

The situation could get worse before it gets better. Alexander noted that “the expectation is that the pending reforms to equalise employment grades across the public sector will boost salary costs even further”.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12289430/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractor appointed for Abu Dhabi Riviera residences

    1 July 2026

     

    Dubai-based real estate developer Mered has appointed Turkiye’s Sera Group as the main contractor for its Riviera Residences project on Al-Reem Island in Abu Dhabi.

    The development will comprise more than 400 one- to three-bedroom apartments and 11 villas.

    Lebanese engineering firm Dar Al-Handasah is the project consultant, while Switzerland’s Herzog & de Meuron is the architect.

    The enabling works are being carried out by local contractor NSCC International.

    Mered and Sera Group are also working together on the Iconic Tower project in Dubai Internet City, where the developer awarded the main contract in December 2024.

    The 67-storey tower is being built on a site covering about 6,368 square metres.

    Local firm Mirage is the project consultant, while Singapore-based Hirsch Bedner Associates is the project architect.

    Dubai-based Chawla Architectural & Consulting Engineers is the architect of record, and Omnium International is the quantity surveyor.

    The foundation works were carried out by local firm Dutch Foundations.

    Mered’s latest contract awards in the UAE market come amid heightened real estate and construction activity, with schemes worth more than $323bn at the execution or planning stages, according to UK-based analytics firm GlobalData.

    GlobalData forecasts that output from the UAE’s residential construction sector will grow by 3% in real terms in 2026-29, supported by infrastructure, energy and utilities developments, as well as residential construction projects.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17509888/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Siemens Energy to supply turbines for Oman IPP projects

    1 July 2026

    Germany’s Siemens Energy has announced it will supply power generation technology and long-term service agreements for the 2.6GW Misfah and Duqm independent power producer (IPP) projects in Oman.

    The scope includes the supply of six F-class gas turbines, six generators and 20-year long-term service agreements for the equipment.

    The combined-cycle gas-fired plants will add almost 20% to the sultanate’s electricity generation capacity. They are expected to provide electricity to more than two million people.

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement (Nama PWP) signed power-purchase agreements (PPAs) for the development and operation of the plants in January.

    The two combined-cycle gas turbine plants are being developed by a consortium comprising Korea Western Power (Kowepo), Qatar’s Nebras Power, the UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) and Oman’s Bhawan Infrastructure Services.

    The Misfah IPP will be led by Nebras Power and located in Wilayat Bousher in Muscat Governorate, with a planned capacity of 1,600MW.

    The Duqm IPP will be led by Kowepo and located in Wilayat Duqm in Al-Wusta Governorate, with a capacity of 800MW.

    In May, MEED exclusively reported that a consortium of China-headquartered Shandong Electric Power Construction No. 3 Company (Sepco 3) and South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility had been appointed as the main contractor.

    The gas turbines will have hydrogen co-firing capability, providing flexibility to increase hydrogen use over time, Siemens said in a statement.

    The turbines will be manufactured at Siemens Energy’s facility in Berlin. The generators will be produced at the company’s plant in Muelheim, Germany.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17506190/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qiddiya awards estimated $1bn racecourse deal

    1 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has awarded an estimated SR4.3bn ($1.1bn) contract for the construction of a racecourse at Qiddiya entertainment city, on the outskirts of Riyadh.

    The contract was awarded to Taj Dhabi, a local subsidiary of UAE-based Trojan Construction.

    The racecourse venue will cover 1.3 million square metres and accommodate 70,000 spectators.

    QIC issued the tender for the construction works in December last year, but formally announced the project only on 10 February. Contractors submitted their bids on 15 February, MEED previously reported.

    According to a statement published on QIC’s website: “The venue will include the region’s first straight-mile turf course, alongside a 2.2 kilometre (km) main turf track and a 2.4km inner dirt track.

    “A 21,000-seat grandstand will anchor the venue, with the ability to expand capacity to up to 70,000 guests through event overlays during major race days,” the statement added.

    A centrepiece of the venue will be a 110-metre central parade ring, located in the middle of the racecourse.

    The project also includes an equine hospital that will provide advanced veterinary services, including diagnostics, surgery, rehabilitation and emergency care for horses.

    The Qiddiya City horse racing venue is one of several major projects within the greater Qiddiya development. Other projects include an e-games arena, the Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a motorsports track, a performing arts centre, the Dragon Ball and Six Flags theme parks, and Aquarabia.

    The project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

    GCC presses ahead with tourism projects

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17506035/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • NCP seeks firms for Saudi Arabia university hospital PPP

    1 July 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Umm Al-Qura University, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has launched an expression of interest for the completion of the construction and operation of the Umm Al-Qura University Hospital in Mecca.

    Issued to contractors on 30 June, the notice has a submission deadline of 21 July.

    The scope includes completing the remaining construction works, as well as the subsequent operation of the hospital.

    Upon completion, the hospital will have a capacity of 391 beds.

    The project will be delivered as a public-private partnership (PPP) under a design, build, finance, operate and maintain model.

    The contract duration is 30 years.

    The project is the latest healthcare project to be procured on a PPP basis in the kingdom. In June, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health and NCP had awarded a PPP contract for the operation and management of the Sabic Specialised Behavioural Healthcare Hospital in Riyadh.

    That contract was awarded to SEH Healthcare, a consortium comprising local firms Specialised Medical Company (SMC Healthcare) and Health Gates Complex, and Germany’s Dr Ebel Fachkliniken.

    In a filing with the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul), SMC Healthcare said the total estimated project value is about SR3.8bn ($1bn).

    In January, Saudi Arabia launched a national privatisation strategy aimed at mobilising $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    Building on the privatisation programme first introduced in 2018, the strategy focuses on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    In a statement, NCP said the strategy comprises 147 opportunities drawn from a broader pipeline of more than 500 projects across 18 sectors.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17506381/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • On-site work starts for $5.4bn gas project in Algeria

    1 July 2026

    On-site work has started for the $5.4bn gas project in Algeria’s Illizi South block, days after a key meeting between Algeria’s Oil and Gas Minister Mohamed Arkab and the chief executive of the Saudi company Midad Energy, Sheikh Abdulelah Bin Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Aiban.

    The total investment of about $5.4bn will be fully financed by Midad Energy, including approximately $288m allocated to the exploration phase.

    It is being developed in partnership with Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach.

    Structured under Algeria’s Hydrocarbon Law No. 19-13, the agreement spans 30 years, with a 10-year extension option. It includes a seven-year exploration phase.

    The initial exploration phase is worth $288m and will involve 2D and 3D seismic exploration as well as drilling more than 13 appraisal wells, according to a report by the local news service Algerie360.

    The second phase, with an investment value of approximately $5.1bn, will involve drilling approximately 60 wells and constructing four natural gas compression units.

    The project is projected to produce a cumulative total of 125 billion cubic metres of natural gas and 204 million barrels of liquid hydrocarbons over 30 years.

    This will include 103 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas and 101 million barrels of condensate.

    Midad Energy has also stated its intention to further expand its investment in Algeria’s oil and gas industry and explore new joint investment opportunities with Sonatrach.

    Algeria’s president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, signed a presidential decree ratifying the development agreement in March.

    Presidential Decree No. 26-113 was issued on 8 March 2026 and underpinned by Articles 91-7 and 141.

    It approved a contract signed in Algiers on 13 October 2025 between Sonatrach and Midad Energy.

    The contract granted both companies the rights to explore and exploit hydrocarbons in the Illizi South area. Algeria’s National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (Alnaft) announced the contract award on 11 October 2025.

    The block is located about 100 kilometres south of In Amenas, which was raided by Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists in 2013, leading to a hostage crisis.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17505309/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp