meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms

7 August 2024

 

The poor state of Kuwait’s public finances was laid bare in late July, when the Ministry of Finance announced it had run up a deficit of KD1.6bn ($5.2bn) for the fiscal year ending on 31 March.

A year earlier, the government had booked a rare budget surplus, following eight straight years in the red, but it seems unlikely that it will be able to return to a surplus any time soon. A combination of lower oil revenues, rising spending commitments and an underpowered non-oil sector means the strain on the public purse is rising rather than falling.

The main culprit for the recent budget shortfall was a 19% drop in oil revenue to KD21.5bn. Non-oil income rose by a little over 1% year-on-year, but at just KD2.1bn it remains a marginal element of the state’s finances.

Even as overall revenues were falling, state spending increased by around 13% to KD25.2bn. The vast majority of that – KD20.4bn – went on public sector wages and subsidies. Capital expenditure accounted for just 8% of the total, at KD1.9bn.

The outcome for the past year was, though, better than some had expected. The local NBK Capital, for example, had predicted a KD3bn deficit. Even so, it highlights how the economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and, by extension, how ill-prepared Kuwait is for a global transition away from hydrocarbons.

While other Gulf governments have been investing heavily in renewable energy projects and seeking to diversify their economies, Kuwait has made negligible progress in these areas.

Structural stagnation

The deficits of the past decade have dealt a significant blow to other elements of the country’s financial health. Speaking at the General Budget Forum in Kuwait in mid-July, Finance Minister Anwar Al-Mudhaf said the assets of the State Reserve Fund had fallen to just KD2bn, down from KD33.6bn a decade earlier.

The persistent failure of the government to push legislation through parliament allowing it to issue more debt has meant that savings have been steadily depleted to cover the budget deficits. The current trend is clearly unsustainable.

Ministry of Finance undersecretary Aseel Al-Munaifi told the same event on 14 July that the size of the budget deficit in the coming years would vary depending on oil prices, but predicted it could total KD26bn over the four years from 2025/26 to 2028/29 – far more than is left in the State Reserve Fund.

Falling oil revenues have also contributed to declines in the country’s GDP. The Washington-based IMF estimates it fell by 2.2% in 2023 and could drop by another 1.4% this year.

Amid all these problems, there have been a few positive signs. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, its lowest level since November 2020, helped by softer prices for food, housing, utilities and transport. UK-based consultancy Oxford Economics predicts it should now stabilise, with a forecast of 2.9% in the coming year.

Kuwait Oil Company also announced a major discovery on 14 July, with an estimated 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas found at the offshore Al-Nokhatha field. More oil reserves will do little to change the economic climate of the country though, particularly when production levels are voluntarily capped under the Opec+ deal.

Controlling spending

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Salah appears to have recognised the need for a more fundamental change in direction, with Al-Mudhaf indicating that more will be done to keep spending under control.

The Ministry of Finance has pencilled in spending of KD24.5bn for the current fiscal year – against revenues of KD18.9bn, meaning a deficit of KD5.6bn. The finance minister has said the government is aiming to keep expenditure at the same level through to 2027/28.

That will be contentious though and may require more political resolve than the government is able to muster. On the other hand, it will find it easier to take unpopular action now than in the past, given the decision by Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah in May to suspend the National Assembly for up to four years, thereby removing a significant block to policy reforms.

The government may also now decide the time is right to follow most of its GCC neighbours and introduce VAT – more than six years after it was introduced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – or other measures such as corporate income tax or ‘sin taxes’ on tobacco and sugary drinks. Such a move could provide a significant boost to non-oil revenues.

“I have been dubious about the prospects of substantial fiscal measures being implemented during the current period while parliament is suspended, given the risk that this would be unpopular and viewed as illegitimate, but the minister’s presentation seems to lay the groundwork for reforms,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.

If the government is to successfully limit its spending over the coming years, it will also need activity to pick up in the private sector, not least to provide more jobs for locals. At the moment, the vast majority of Kuwaitis who are in work are employed by a public sector entity.

The most recent employment market data showed job growth among Kuwaiti nationals of 3.2%, but as NBK Capital pointed out in a report on 23 July, “this was due to a gain in public sector jobs, while private sector employment fell”. Just 15% of working Kuwaitis have jobs in the private sector. Indeed, the public sector wage bill rose by 12% in the most recent financial year.

Al-Mudhaf noted in his comments to the General Budget Forum that public sector salaries are now equivalent to around 30% of Kuwait’s GDP, compared to 7-13% in other GCC states. Among other things, he blamed undisciplined hiring and weak performance evaluations for the rising wage bill.

The situation could get worse before it gets better. Alexander noted that “the expectation is that the pending reforms to equalise employment grades across the public sector will boost salary costs even further”.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12289430/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia tenders next phase of King Saud Air Base

    10 September 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence & Aviation has started the tendering process for the next phase of the King Saud Air Base in the kingdom.

    Contractors have been given until 20 October to submit their bids.

    The scope of works covers the construction of the headquarters building, administrative buildings, operations and maintenance area, police camp facilities, weapons and ammunition area, residential facilities, airfield facilities and other associated facilities.

    The project duration is three years.

    The air base spans an area of 383 square kilometres (sq km) in the Hafr Al-Batin area of the kingdom’s Eastern Region.

    Contracts worth about SR6.6bn ($1.8bn) for the project’s first phase were awarded early last year.

    The joint venture of local firms Isam Khairi Kabbani Group and Alfanar Projects was appointed as the main contractor for the first package, which was worth about SR2.9bn ($783m).

    The consortium comprising Riyadh-based Albawani, Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting and Kuwait’s Alghanim International won the second package, worth about $1bn.

    According to GlobalData, Saudi Arabia’s defence budget is projected to grow from $68bn in 2027 to $86.3bn by 2031, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1%.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19544241/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Sabic awards $3.47bn contract for ammonia and urea complex

    10 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients, an affiliate of chemicals giant Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic), has awarded the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for its seventh project in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Industrial City, which will significantly expand its ammonia and urea production capacity.

    South Korea’s Samsung E&A has won the contract for the project known as San VII, valued at $3.465bn, Sabic Agri-Nutrients said in a filing with the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) on 10 September. It added that its board approved the final investment decision on the project on 9 September.

    The San VII project in Jubail Industrial City, in the kingdom’s Eastern Province, will have a production capacity of about 1.2 million metric tonnes a year (t/y) of conventional ammonia and 2.6 million metric t/y of urea. The complex will also feature a post-combustion carbon capture unit.

    Sabic had earlier announced receiving approval for feedstock allocation from the Saudi Ministry of Energy in March for the project, which will expand Sabic Agri-Nutrients’ urea production capacity by 54%, from approximately 4.8 million metric t/y to 7.4 million metric t/y.

    The San VII project replaces a previously planned low-carbon or blue ammonia project with a conventional ammonia and urea facility. The project, which was previously known as San VI, was slated to produce 1.2 million metric t/y of low-carbon ammonia and 1.1 million metric t/y of urea and specialised agri-nutrients.

    Before being restructured into its current form, MEED reported in March last year that Samsung E&A was the frontrunner to win the main EPC contract for the project.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients expects construction on the San VII project to begin in Q4 2026, with commissioning scheduled to start in Q3 2030. The commissioning period will last four months, ahead of the start of commercial production and completion of the project in Q4 2030.

    The San VII project “is also expected to represent a significant step toward enhancing the company’s competitiveness and sustainability through the integration of advanced carbon capture technologies and the reduction of emissions intensity across its operations. This will contribute to reducing the carbon footprint of its products, supporting the company’s sustainability and carbon neutrality ambitions”, Sabic Agri-Nutrients said in its Tadawul filing.

    “The project is considered one of the key pillars of the company’s 2040 strategy, which aims to strengthen the kingdom’s position in the agricultural nutrients export market and contribute to global food security, in line with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030,” it added.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients

    Formerly Saudi Arabian Fertiliser Company (Safco), Sabic Agri-Nutrients was the first petrochemicals company to be established in Saudi Arabia in 1965.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients, in which Sabic owns the majority 50.1% share, is one of the leading global fertiliser producers, with a portfolio that includes urea, ammonia, phosphate and other specialised products.

    For the second quarter of 2026, the company reported a sharp decline in profitability, primarily driven by a drop in revenue and lower sales volumes compared with both the previous quarter and the same period last year.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients saw its net profit fall by 64.25% to $101m, compared with $282.66m in the second quarter of last year, and by 69.11% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

    The company’s Q2 revenues were down by 26.65% year-on-year at $643m, and by 16.11% quarter-on-quarter. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) in Q2 stood at $165m, a drop of 51% year-on-year and 55% quarter-on-quarter.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients further said its profitability suffered from a 31% quarterly decline in agri-nutrient sales volumes, recorded at 960,000 metric tonnes. Although global supply chain disruptions triggered a 27% price increase for agri-nutrients during the second quarter, the short-lived macro-driven bump was not enough to fully offset the slide in sales volumes.

    In December 2022, Saudi Aramco and Sabic Agri-Nutrients delivered the world’s first commercial-grade blue ammonia cargo to South Korea. Locally based Lotte Fine Chemicals received the shipment of 25,000 metric tonnes of independently certified blue ammonia in the southern city of Ulsan.

    Following that milestone, the company struck several deals in 2023 with customers worldwide to supply low-carbon ammonia and urea.

    In April 2023, Sabic Agri-Nutrients shipped the first independently certified low-carbon ammonia from Saudi Arabia to Japan, where it is being used as fuel for power generation. The ammonia cargo was produced with feedstock from Saudi Aramco, sold by Aramco Trading Company to Fuji Oil Company and transported by Mitsui OSK Lines.

    After that, Sabic Agri-Nutrients shipped 5,000 metric tonnes of low-carbon ammonia in May 2023 to a customer in India, Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative.

    The company then shipped 5,000 metric tonnes of low-carbon ammonia to Taiwan Fertiliser Company in June 2023.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients’ latest shipment is believed to have been in July 2023, when it shipped a 2,700-tonne cargo of low-carbon urea to Ravensdown, a New Zealand farmer-owned agricultural co-operative company.

    Separately, Sabic Agri-Nutrients announced signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Maaden Integrated Fertiliser Company (MIFC) on 18 August to explore potential collaboration opportunities.

    The non-binding MoU, which is valid for three years, “aims to establish a general framework for cooperation between the two parties in developing and investing in opportunities within the integrated value chain of agri-nutrients, including the production and manufacturing of value-added products”, Sabic Agri-Nutrients said in a Tadawul disclosure.

    MIFC is a limited liability company wholly owned by Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden). MIFC serves as the holding entity for all subsidiaries within Maaden’s phosphate business vertical.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19539503/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Contractor wins Riyadh airport sewage plant deal

    10 September 2026

     

    The local Safari Company has been selected to build a sewage treatment plant at the King Salman International airport (KSIA) development in Riyadh.

    The contract for the facility is yet to be formally signed with King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC), a source close to the project told MEED.

    The facility will have a treatment capacity of 92,000 cubic metres a day and is estimated to be worth SR700m ($187m).

    In July, MEED reported that Safari was one of seven contractors awaiting a decision on a contract to build the sewage treatment plant.

    It is understood that bids were submitted in March, following the tender’s release earlier this year.

    The plant will treat wastewater generated by the airport and surrounding developments, including passenger terminals, runways, residential districts, commercial facilities and logistics areas.

    The bidders (all local) are:

    • Al-Rawaf Trading & Contracting
    • Almajal Alarabi
    • Nesma Water & Energy
    • Safari Company
    • Saudi Services for Electro-Mechanic Works
    • Washnah Contracting
    • Water & Environment Technologies (Wetico)

    The project scope includes the construction of the treatment plant, the installation of preliminary, secondary and tertiary treatment systems, sewage collection and conveyance pipelines, pumping stations, and electrical and control systems.

    US-headquartered Jacobs is acting as the main project consultant. Commercial operations for the plant are scheduled for 2029.

    The sewage treatment plant is one of several water infrastructure packages planned for the airport. KSIADC is also evaluating bids for a separate $30m engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract covering potable water and fire water tanks and an associated pumping station. The same seven companies submitted bids for that package.

    Earlier in July, MEED exclusively reported that a joint venture of Beijing-headquartered China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and Dammam-based Mofarreh AlHarbi & Partners had won a deal to undertake the enabling and substructure works for Terminal 6 at KSIA.

    That same month, MEED exclusively reported that contract details were being finalised for the main construction contract for the expansion of Hail airport. It is understood that Safari Company was appointed as the contractor for this project.

    The terminal expansion works include the south expansion, which encompasses the construction of a new building covering 5,600 square metres. This building will connect to the existing terminal from the southern side.

    The expansion will increase the airport’s capacity to about 1.7 million passengers a year by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19539284/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Azizi to announce $8bn Sharjah residential community

    10 September 2026

    Dubai-based real estate developer Azizi Developments is preparing to launch Azizi Florence, a AED30bn ($8bn) masterplanned community in Sharjah.

    Named Azizi Florence, the project will mark the developer’s first venture in the emirate of Sharjah.

    The community will include 1,130 villas, over 6,000 townhouses and 3,500 apartments.

    Planned as a fully integrated destination, Azizi Florence will combine residential, retail, hospitality, education, leisure, and wellness components, anchored by a 1.7 million-square-foot central park.

    The development will be organised into six residential clusters, each featuring its own park, clubhouse, community centre and landscaped gardens.

    Azizi Florence is another major addition to the developer’s UAE portfolio. 

    In April last year, Azizi announced plans to develop the Azizi Milan community in Dubai’s City of Arabia area.

    According to media reports, the project will be developed at an estimated cost of AED75bn ($20bn) and will offer over 81,200 residential units.

    The developer said the project will cover an area of about 40 million square feet, making it one of the largest mixed-use communities in the UAE.

    In 2023, Azizi launched the Azizi Venice project in the Dubai South area. The estimated AED30bn ($8.17bn) mixed-use development will offer more than 30,000 residential units, including 100 mid-rise apartment complexes and 400 villas, two five-star hotels and an opera house.

    The development will also include schools, a hospital, cycling and jogging tracks, a 3-kilometre-long swimmable lagoon, water features and landscaped parks.

    Dubai real estate developments dominate the UAE’s construction market, with schemes worth over $323bn in the execution or planning stages.

    This is in line with a forecast by GlobalData, which projects that the output of the UAE construction sector will grow by 4.2% in real terms in 2025, supported by developments in infrastructure, energy and utilities and residential construction projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19535526/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows

    10 September 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s power market has seen a sharp fall in contract awards in 2026 following a major wave of renewable energy investment last year.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, about $3.38bn of power sector contracts were awarded in the kingdom as of early September, compared with $27.5bn in 2025, $54.2bn in 2024 and $26.1bn in 2023.

    The relatively low level of contract awards this year has partly been influenced by a shift towards wider infrastructure such as battery energy storage systems (bess) and transmission projects, alongside delays in the procurement of renewable energy projects under the National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP) Round 7.

    In September, Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) awarded four Group 1 storage service agreements representing more than SR4.35bn ($1.16bn) of investment. The projects will provide a combined 2,000MW of capacity and 8,000MWh of storage.

    Three bess projects, Al-Muwyah, Haden and Al-Kahafa, were awarded to a consortium of Saudi Energy, Acwa and Al-Sharif Contracting & Commercial Development Company. Another consortium of France’s Engie and Haji Abdullah Alireza & Co won the contract for the remaining Al-Khushaybi bess project.

    Transmission awards

    The battery storage projects are part of a broader shift towards the infrastructure needed to support Saudi Arabia’s expanding power system, with transmission accounting for most of the contracts awarded this year, reaching $3.35bn in new awards.

    The largest is the estimated $500m contract awarded to Alfanar Projects in March for the 500kV overhead transmission line linking Saudi Arabia’s Eastern and Central operating areas. The 508-kilometre project will have a transmission capacity of 3,000MW.

    Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company, is implementing a $58.7bn grid investment programme through 2030, including 130 high-voltage substations, about 12,900km of overhead transmission lines and 1,100km of underground cables.

    Saudi Energy is the largest owner by value so far this year, accounting for about $1.9bn of contract awards, while SPPC has awarded more than $1.1bn in new contracts.

    The focus on storage and transmission follows strong growth in renewable generation investment in 2025. Wind power contract awards reached $4.4bn, while 11 major solar contracts were also awarded.

    In May 2025, developers signed $8.3bn of power purchase agreements with SPPC for five solar plants and two wind farms with a combined capacity of 15,000MW, somewhat inflating last year’s figures. The projects, backed by the Public Investment Fund, reached financial close in November.

    Renewables projects

    The next major phase of renewable procurement is now moving through the tender process. The seventh round of NREP, tendered in January, will add 5,300MW through four solar and two wind projects.

    Based on the procurement timeline for the Round 6 projects, which were tendered and awarded in 2026, it was reasonable to expect Round 7 to follow a similar schedule.

    However, according to one developer, rising supply costs have been a factor in recent deadline extensions for these projects, with those involved “waiting till these come down”.

    With the latest bid submission deadlines set for September, the timing of the procurement process means contracts from NREP Round 7 may now fall into 2027 rather than materially lifting this year’s total.

    The solar projects comprise the 1,400MW Tabarjal 2, 600MW Mawqqaq, 600MW Tathleeth and 500MW South Al-Ula independent power projects (IPPs). The round also includes the 1,300MW Bilgah and 900MW Shagra wind IPPs.

    This helps explain why Saudi Arabia’s power sector contracting could remain relatively subdued in 2026 despite a substantial volume of projects progressing through procurement.

    Project pipeline

    According to MEED Projects, about $5.1bn of power projects are currently under bid evaluation and a further $7.3bn are at the main contract tender stage.

    Solar projects make up the largest share, at about $5.1bn, or 41% of the total. There continues to be relatively strong diversification, with cable and overhead-line projects accounting for about $3bn, followed by wind at $2.2bn, oil and gas-fired power at $1.1bn and substations at about $1bn.

    Renewable energy remains a particularly significant part of the development programme. Saudi Arabia raised its renewable energy target to 130GW by 2030 in 2023 and needs to add roughly 20GW of capacity a year to meet it.

    Large-scale storage is also expected to continue expanding. The latest SPPC projects build on five bess facilities awarded by Saudi Energy through National Grid Saudi Arabia to Alfanar in 2025. The facilities have a combined capacity of up to 2,500MW, equivalent to about 10,000MWh.

    SPPC has also issued the request for proposals for the second phase of its independent bess programme in Saudi Arabia. The Group 2 programme comprises six independent storage provider projects with a total capacity of 3GW, equivalent to 12,000MWh based on a four-hour storage duration. Developers are due to submit bids in October. 

    The timing means the Group 2 projects could contribute to contracting activity in 2027, alongside this next batch of renewable projects under NREP Round 7.

    Nuclear power could provide another potential source of activity over the next 12 months. The US and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement in July, providing the legal foundation for a long-term, multibillion-dollar nuclear partnership.

    While the agreement is unlikely to translate immediately into major contract values, further progress on Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme could add another area of activity in the sector as the kingdom moves into 2027.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19535830/main.gif
    Mark Dowdall