meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Fiscal deficit pushes Kuwait towards reforms

7 August 2024

 

The poor state of Kuwait’s public finances was laid bare in late July, when the Ministry of Finance announced it had run up a deficit of KD1.6bn ($5.2bn) for the fiscal year ending on 31 March.

A year earlier, the government had booked a rare budget surplus, following eight straight years in the red, but it seems unlikely that it will be able to return to a surplus any time soon. A combination of lower oil revenues, rising spending commitments and an underpowered non-oil sector means the strain on the public purse is rising rather than falling.

The main culprit for the recent budget shortfall was a 19% drop in oil revenue to KD21.5bn. Non-oil income rose by a little over 1% year-on-year, but at just KD2.1bn it remains a marginal element of the state’s finances.

Even as overall revenues were falling, state spending increased by around 13% to KD25.2bn. The vast majority of that – KD20.4bn – went on public sector wages and subsidies. Capital expenditure accounted for just 8% of the total, at KD1.9bn.

The outcome for the past year was, though, better than some had expected. The local NBK Capital, for example, had predicted a KD3bn deficit. Even so, it highlights how the economy remains almost entirely dependent on oil revenues and, by extension, how ill-prepared Kuwait is for a global transition away from hydrocarbons.

While other Gulf governments have been investing heavily in renewable energy projects and seeking to diversify their economies, Kuwait has made negligible progress in these areas.

Structural stagnation

The deficits of the past decade have dealt a significant blow to other elements of the country’s financial health. Speaking at the General Budget Forum in Kuwait in mid-July, Finance Minister Anwar Al-Mudhaf said the assets of the State Reserve Fund had fallen to just KD2bn, down from KD33.6bn a decade earlier.

The persistent failure of the government to push legislation through parliament allowing it to issue more debt has meant that savings have been steadily depleted to cover the budget deficits. The current trend is clearly unsustainable.

Ministry of Finance undersecretary Aseel Al-Munaifi told the same event on 14 July that the size of the budget deficit in the coming years would vary depending on oil prices, but predicted it could total KD26bn over the four years from 2025/26 to 2028/29 – far more than is left in the State Reserve Fund.

Falling oil revenues have also contributed to declines in the country’s GDP. The Washington-based IMF estimates it fell by 2.2% in 2023 and could drop by another 1.4% this year.

Amid all these problems, there have been a few positive signs. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June, its lowest level since November 2020, helped by softer prices for food, housing, utilities and transport. UK-based consultancy Oxford Economics predicts it should now stabilise, with a forecast of 2.9% in the coming year.

Kuwait Oil Company also announced a major discovery on 14 July, with an estimated 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas found at the offshore Al-Nokhatha field. More oil reserves will do little to change the economic climate of the country though, particularly when production levels are voluntarily capped under the Opec+ deal.

Controlling spending

The government of Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Salah appears to have recognised the need for a more fundamental change in direction, with Al-Mudhaf indicating that more will be done to keep spending under control.

The Ministry of Finance has pencilled in spending of KD24.5bn for the current fiscal year – against revenues of KD18.9bn, meaning a deficit of KD5.6bn. The finance minister has said the government is aiming to keep expenditure at the same level through to 2027/28.

That will be contentious though and may require more political resolve than the government is able to muster. On the other hand, it will find it easier to take unpopular action now than in the past, given the decision by Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah in May to suspend the National Assembly for up to four years, thereby removing a significant block to policy reforms.

The government may also now decide the time is right to follow most of its GCC neighbours and introduce VAT – more than six years after it was introduced in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – or other measures such as corporate income tax or ‘sin taxes’ on tobacco and sugary drinks. Such a move could provide a significant boost to non-oil revenues.

“I have been dubious about the prospects of substantial fiscal measures being implemented during the current period while parliament is suspended, given the risk that this would be unpopular and viewed as illegitimate, but the minister’s presentation seems to lay the groundwork for reforms,” said Justin Alexander, director of Khalij Economics.

If the government is to successfully limit its spending over the coming years, it will also need activity to pick up in the private sector, not least to provide more jobs for locals. At the moment, the vast majority of Kuwaitis who are in work are employed by a public sector entity.

The most recent employment market data showed job growth among Kuwaiti nationals of 3.2%, but as NBK Capital pointed out in a report on 23 July, “this was due to a gain in public sector jobs, while private sector employment fell”. Just 15% of working Kuwaitis have jobs in the private sector. Indeed, the public sector wage bill rose by 12% in the most recent financial year.

Al-Mudhaf noted in his comments to the General Budget Forum that public sector salaries are now equivalent to around 30% of Kuwait’s GDP, compared to 7-13% in other GCC states. Among other things, he blamed undisciplined hiring and weak performance evaluations for the rising wage bill.

The situation could get worse before it gets better. Alexander noted that “the expectation is that the pending reforms to equalise employment grades across the public sector will boost salary costs even further”.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12289430/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Neom’s industrial pivot gathers pace

    1 October 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Reprioritisation has been the buzzword in Saudi Arabia over the past two years and nowhere has that been more evident than at Neom. 

    The slowdown of development at The Line and the postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games at Trojena have dominated international headlines. As these projects scale back, Oxagon’s industrial and logistics base has become the $500bn gigaproject’s flagship development. There are tangible results: in August, the $8.5bn Neom Green Hydrogen project was commissioned, marking Neom’s most significant completion to date. 

    Construction activity elsewhere at Oxagon supports this trend. The AI data-centre campus being developed by Humain and DataVolt has broken ground on its first 100MW phase, backed by $5bn of investment and targeted for service in 2028. Neom has issued an expression of interest for a rail line linking the Port of Neom to Saudi Arabia Railways’ North-South network, tenders are out for an industrial wastewater plant and the upgrade of Highway 55, and the port itself is advancing towards a 2030 capacity target of 1.5 million TEUs. 

    The regional conflict that began in February has strengthened the business case by giving Oxagon’s Red Sea port added strategic weight as a second maritime gateway outside the Strait of Hormuz, at a time when Riyadh has committed to directing about 80% of the Public Investment Fund’s portfolio into domestic investment.

    These developments reflect a kingdom recalibrating rather than retreating

    Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s wider projects market is holding steady despite conflict-related disruption, with contract awards reaching $68bn so far this year. The regional power market is also diversifying, with Aljomaih, EDF and Kepco all more than tripling net capacity in recent years as Acwa retains its lead.

    These developments reflect a kingdom recalibrating rather than retreating, with priority given to projects capable of delivering commercial returns.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20178338/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Contractor wins Dammam airport water infrastructure deal

    1 October 2026

    Saudi Arabia-based Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies has won an SR80m ($21.3m) contract to rehabilitate water and wastewater infrastructure at King Fahd International airport in Dammam in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The contract was awarded by Dammam Airports Company (DACO), and work is scheduled to be completed within 18 months, the firm said in a disclosure to the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) on 29 September.

    The scope covers the design, construction, supply, installation, replacement, rehabilitation and integration of water and wastewater infrastructure.

    It includes pumps, storage tanks and reservoirs, reverse osmosis facilities, piping and tie-ins, as well as electrical and instrumentation works.

    The award comes as DACO advances a wider programme of investment at King Fahd International airport.

    DACO signed more than SR1.2bn ($320m) in agreements in June covering airport infrastructure, including a new power station, a medium-voltage distribution network and upgrades to the existing electrical grid. 

    In September, it also appointed WSP Middle East, the regional arm of Canadian engineering firm WSP, to develop the airport’s expansion under its masterplan.

    The expansion is intended to increase annual passenger capacity to more than 19.3 million by 2030, with a longer-term target of 32 million passengers. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20169118/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait tenders LNG project

    1 October 2026

     

    State-owned Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (Kipic) has tendered a project to develop a reliquefaction unit at the Al-Zour liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal.

    The project focuses on developing a boil-off gas (BOG) unit at the terminal, with bids due on 22 December.

    A meeting for contractors to discuss the project is scheduled for 18 October.

    The project scope includes engineering, procurement and construction works, along with pre-commissioning, commissioning and performance testing services.

    The list of prequalified companies is:

    • Fluor (US)
    • GS Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
    • Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Samsung Engineering (South Korea)
    • Sinopec Engineering (China)
    • JGC Holdings (Japan)
    • KBR (US)
    • China National Petroleum Corporation (China)
    • Technip (France)

    A BOG unit at an LNG facility captures, compresses and processes natural gas vapours that evaporate from cryogenic storage tanks, enabling the gas to be recycled back into the system rather than flared.

    In April, MEED revealed that contractors expected the project to be worth about $200m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20168625/main2005.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Riyadh approaches contractors for 2km tower

    1 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has reached out to contractors as part of a market-sounding exercise for the construction of the proposed 2-kilometre megatall tower project.

    MEED understands that a PIF subsidiary, the Tower District Real Estate Development Company, is undertaking the process.

    It is understood that several experienced international contractors, as well as some prominent local contractors, have been approached.

    The latest development follows PIF receiving offers in June last year from firms seeking a contract to provide project management consultancy (PMC) services for a new central business district (CBD) on the outskirts of Riyadh, which includes the proposed 2km tower.

    The PMC role covers both the tower and the surrounding district.

    Firms understood to have been invited to bid include US-based Aecom, Jacobs, Parsons and Turner, as well as the UK’s Mace.

    UK-based Foster & Partners is working as the architect for the tower after winning a design competition launched in late 2022.

    Record breaker

    The proposed tower would be more than double the height of the world’s tallest building, Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, which stands 828 metres tall. It is expected to be at least several hundred metres taller than the 1,000-metre-plus tower under construction in Jeddah.

    Contractors that have priced megatall towers in the region say a 2km-tall structure could cost about $5bn to construct, depending on the final design.

    The 2km tower and the surrounding CBD – known as Project Rise – sit within a larger masterplanned development to the north of Riyadh called the North Pole.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20156496/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Singapore’s Temasek plans Middle East expansion

    1 October 2026

    Singapore’s Temasek plans to open offices in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi early next year as it targets investment and partnership opportunities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and the wider region.

    The state-owned investor had a net portfolio value of S$518bn ($401bn) as of 31 March 2026.

    It said the new offices will serve as regional hubs for Temasek and its portfolio companies, with some businesses expected to co-locate to work more closely with partners and pursue deals alongside the group. The openings are subject to regulatory approvals.

    Temasek said it will also step up engagement with institutions in Qatar, although it has not announced plans to establish an office there.

    The company said the expansion reflects its confidence in the region’s long-term fundamentals and the economic transformation being driven by national diversification programmes.

    It added that a presence in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will also support investment activity beyond the region by improving access to opportunities across the wider Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

    Several Temasek-owned or Temasek-backed companies are already active in the GCC, providing a platform for the group’s planned expansion.

    These include Singapore-headquartered engineering and consultancy firm Surbana Jurong, which has been involved in masterplanning and advisory work on major regional developments, alongside other portfolio companies with interests spanning infrastructure, logistics, financial services and technology.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, Surbana Jurong is involved in several major projects in Saudi Arabia, including King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) in Jeddah, Jeddah Islamic Port, Red Sea Global’s Amaala masterplan, the Trojena dams scheme, Oxagon, King Salman International airport and Saudi Arabia Railway’s North-South Phosphate Railway 3.

    The firm has also worked on projects in the wider region, including the West Link project, Urban Loop, Musaffah Innovation District masterplan, Etihad Rail’s high-speed rail programme and Abu Dhabi airport’s Midfield Terminal.

    Surbana Jurong has also secured masterplanning contracts from Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities & Transport and Abu Dhabi Ports.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20157511/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal