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  Gulf aviation ambitions face uncertain future

  26 June 2026

  

   

  The Iranian drone strike on Kuwait International airport on 3 June was a reminder of the severity of the threat that Gulf aviation has faced. The attack caused significant structural damage to Terminal 1 and wounded several individuals. It was the third drone strike on the hub in recent months.

  Kuwait has not been alone. After the conflict erupted on 28 February, Iranian strikes targeted some of the region’s most important aviation infrastructure. Dubai International airport, Zayed International airport in Abu Dhabi and Hamad International airport in Doha have all been hit. The attacks caused unprecedented disruption: between 28 February and 5 March alone, more than 15,000 flights were cancelled across seven major regional airports, affecting over 1.5 million passengers. 

  Although the Gulf’s national carriers have resumed services, many international airlines have yet to return.

  Aviation is crucial for the region. The sector is one of the most important drivers of economic growth across the GCC. In Dubai, it contributed an estimated AED137bn ($37bn), or 27% of GDP, in 2024 and supported 631,000 jobs. Those figures are expected to rise to AED196bn and 816,000 jobs by 2030. In Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030 targets 330 million annual passengers, connectivity to more than 250 destinations and air freight capacity of 4.5 million tonnes a year. The sector’s economic contribution is targeted to reach $74.6bn by 2030, up from $21.3bn.

  Sector deteriorating

  The financial community has been quick to update its assessment of the sector’s prospects. Fitch Ratings revised its global airport sector outlook from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ in early June. The agency said the conflict has increased uncertainty over regional airspace availability, airline operations and travel demand, with implications for route stability and traffic quality.

  Fitch’s assessment is a warning sign for the Gulf. The region’s major airports have built their business models on international connectivity, long-haul flying and transfer traffic – precisely the categories Fitch identifies as most exposed to rerouting risk and weaker visibility on demand. Gulf hub operators also face the prospect of further airspace restrictions affecting routes linking Asia, Europe and Africa.

  The knock-on effects extend beyond airline revenues. Transfer passengers are also the highest-spending travellers in duty-free, retail and food and beverage outlets. Fitch noted that some Asia-Pacific airports have already begun benefiting from the redistribution of transit and long-haul traffic away from disrupted Gulf hubs.

  The global body representing airlines, the International Air Transport Association (Iata), was equally downbeat when it released its latest financial outlook on 8 June. The organisation now expects the global airline industry to achieve a combined net profit of $23bn in 2026 – roughly half the $41bn previously projected and about half the $45bn estimated for 2025. The net profit margin is forecast at 2%, compared with the earlier projection of 3.9% and last year’s 4.2%. Net profit per passenger is expected to be $4.50, down from $9.10 in 2025.

  “War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse,” said Willie Walsh, Iata’s director general. “At the regional level, all are in the black but with sharply reduced financial performance, with the exception of the Middle East. The Gulf carriers face operational uncertainty following a near complete shutdown of airspace at the outbreak of the war. These carriers are doing an amazing job maintaining connectivity, but major financial impacts are unavoidable.”

  Fuel costs are a key part of the problem. Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel for the year – an increase of almost 70% on the $90-a-barrel average recorded in 2025. The crack spread, or the premium for jet fuel over Brent crude oil, is expected to average $57 a barrel, an historic high. Total fuel costs for the global airline industry are forecast to rise by nearly 40% from $252bn in 2025 to $350bn in 2026. This is based on an expected average Brent crude oil price of $95 a barrel for the year, up 37% from $69 in 2025. Overall, industry operating expenses are expected to grow by 13% to $1.117tn, outpacing total revenue growth of 9.4% to $1.165tn.

  Fitch also raised concerns about the availability of jet fuel in Europe, noting potential disruption to Middle Eastern supply chains. While the agency expects European fuel reserves to cover the summer months even if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it cautioned that winter operations could prove more challenging if the disruption persists. Higher airfares and fuel surcharges could further weigh on near-term demand – a headwind for Gulf airports that have benefited in recent years from the restoration of long-haul leisure travel following the Covid-19 pandemic.

  The insurance market adds another layer of complexity. Aviation policies typically grant insurers the right to cancel cover during active conflict, and the terms on which cover is being extended in a region that has seen airports repeatedly targeted are likely to be materially more expensive than before.

  Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel for the year – an increase of almost 70% on the $90-a-barrel average recorded in 2025

  Carrier optimism

  The Gulf’s airlines are more optimistic about the future. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways said in early June that it is operating at 90% of its pre-war available seat kilometres – the key industry capacity metric – and that by 15 June the airline will surpass 100%. Planes are 84% full, and crucially, fares are back at pre-war levels. Officials at the airline say that demand for transit through Abu Dhabi from Paris to Asia is running so strongly that the airline is laying on two of its A380 aircraft a day on that corridor from July. 

  While the expectation in the industry outside the Gulf had been that carriers such as Etihad and Emirates would need to discount heavily to entice passengers back after the ceasefire, Etihad has said that it does not expect prices to come down.

  The airline will not be entirely unscathed. Etihad had been on course to deliver a 10% operating margin in 2026, up from 8% in 2025, but that target will now be missed. The airline was badly hit in March, April and May and will not be fully back on track until August.

  Dubai’s Emirates Group released its 2025-26 annual results in May, which confirmed the airline’s status as the world’s most profitable carrier for the reporting year. The group posted a record profit before tax of AED24.4bn ($6.6bn), up 7% year-on-year, on revenues of AED150.5bn, also a record. 

  Unprecedented situation

  The context is important: the results cover the financial year to 31 March 2026, meaning only the final month of March was affected by the conflict. For the first 11 months, the group was surpassing its targets every month. March then brought what Emirates’ chairman and chief executive Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum described as an “unprecedented situation”. Emirates was flying just 58% of its capacity by 31 March.

  Despite the disruption, the results illustrate the depth of the financial cushion the group has built. Emirates also announced a 20-week salary bonus for employees – far exceeding the 13-week payout that had been linked to performance targets. For the year ahead, Sheikh Ahmed said Emirates would continue taking aircraft deliveries and pressing ahead with its retrofit programme, without resorting to “knee-jerk cost control measures”. The group has hedged its fuel exposure through to 2028-29. “Our fundamentals are strong,” he said.

  On 8 June, Riyadh Air – the airline backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund – announced five new destinations: Cairo, Dubai, Jeddah, Madrid and Manchester, coinciding with the arrival of its first three Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft. The airline also moved up its inaugural London flight from 1 July to 10 June. 

  The airline will play a key role in delivering Saudi Arabia’s ambition to develop Riyadh into a global aviation hub and to position the kingdom as a major connecting point between East and West. The carrier has set a target of connecting Riyadh to more than 100 destinations worldwide by 2030. Pressing ahead with new routes and aircraft deliveries amid regional turbulence sends a signal that Saudi Arabia’s aviation ambitions are not for deferral.

  Future direction

  Looking ahead, there appears to be diverging fortunes for the sector. Globally, analysts say point-to-point leisure airports are typically better positioned than large hubs reliant on transfer traffic and international corridors, and this may also play out across the Middle East. Airports with a large share of local origin-and-destination demand may prove better insulated compared with the major connecting hubs whose business models depend on stable long-haul routings. 

  For the Gulf’s flagship hub carriers, including Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, state ownership and strong backing mean that the question is less about survival and more about how long it will take to restore the full confidence of international airlines and their passengers. 

  Much remains uncertain. A ceasefire is in place and, as Sheikh Ahmed noted in the Emirates annual report, there are hopes for “a clear resolution to the hostilities soon, and a return to market stability”. But the drone attack on Kuwait shows that the threat from Iran to the region’s aviation infrastructure has not been neutralised. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of Gulf aviation. 

  Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions

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  Colin Foreman
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  Seven bidders selected to participate in Algerian gas project tender

  26 June 2026

  Seven bidders have been selected to participate in a gas project tender from the state-owned Algerian Electricity & Gas Company (Sonelgaz).

  The bidders were selected after Sonelgaz opened the submitted technical bids.

  The project is focused on the development of four gas transmission network monitoring centres in the North African country.

  The scope of work for the contract will include studies, engineering, supplies, training, construction work and commissioning of the facilities.

  The facility will include one national gas transmission network monitoring centre located in Algiers.

  It will also include three regional gas transmission network monitoring centres. These will be located in Blida, Oran and Constantine.

  The seven companies that prequalified to participate in the tender are:

  • Giza Systems (Egypt)
  • Emerson (US)
  • Honeywell (US)
  • China National Machinery Import & Export Corporation (China)
  • Dongfang Electronics (China)
  • Zepdi (China) with Yokogawa (Japan)
  • China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China) with China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (China) and CPLH Group (China)

  Gas transmission network monitoring centres are typically used to monitor physical gas transportation, including gas flow and pressure.

  They are usually staffed around the clock, and the operators can address faults in gas transmission systems by opening and closing valves remotely.

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  Wil Crisp
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  Kuwait prepares to retender fuel depot project

  26 June 2026

  

   

  State-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) is preparing to retender the contract to develop a new fuel depot in Kuwait’s Al-Mutlaa area and is seeking expressions of interest (EoIs) from contractors.

  KNPC issued the latest EoI request on 24 June, setting a deadline of 2 July for contractors to submit responses.

  Lebanon’s Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) originally submitted a low bid of KD357.3m ($1.16bn) for the project ahead of a deadline on 22 December 2024, but the contract was never awarded.

  In May last year, MEED reported that the contract had come in 43% over its allotted budget.

  The scope of the latest version of the project has changed compared to the version for which bids were submitted in 2024.

  According to the latest documents circulated by KNPC, the scope of the project’s latest version focuses on four main areas.

  The first is the Matlaa Depot itself, where the new facilities will include:

  • 11 storage tanks
  • Distribution facilities
  • A terminal automation system
  • Road tanker loading and unloading facilities with vapour recovery
  • New offices and facilities buildings
  • Electrical substations
  • Utilities
  • Fire water tanks and pumps
  • Effluent treatment facilities

  The second scope area is a range of utilities for the depot, which include:

  • Overhead lines (with a total approximate length of 20 kilometres)
  • Four transformers
  • Associated works to supply the Matla depot with electricity
  • A 20km water pipeline with a diameter of 14 inches

  The third scope area is two parallel cross-country pipelines. One will have a diameter of 12 inches, the other 10 inches, and both will extend for around 130km.

  These pipelines will transport unleaded gasoline with octanes of 91 and 95 from the tank farm located next to the Mina Abdullah and Mina Al-Ahmadi refineries.

  The scope of work associated with these pipelines will include eight block valve stations as well as a new 14-inch pipeline with a diameter of 14 inches that will tie in with existing 20-inch pipelines to supply the depot with diesel.

  The fourth scope area is focused on developing new infrastructure and modifying infrastructure at the tank farm located next to the Mina Abdullah and Mina Al-Ahmadi refineries.

  This work will include:

  • Tank modification for tie-in works
  • New pumps
  • New flow lines
  • Electrical substations
  • Extensions to existing buildings

  Ahead of the previous tender for the main contract for this project, there were long-running debates within KNPC over the types of fuel to be transported to the depot.

  The facility will store fuels for distribution within Kuwait.

  Some officials wanted fuel that does not meet European import standards to make up a high volume of the fuel transported to the facility, so that more export-quality fuel can be sold to foreign markets.

  Other officials wanted the European-standard fuel to be used more widely in Kuwait due to its lower environmental impact.

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  Wil Crisp
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  Etihad Rail to begin passenger rail operations from 30 June

  26 June 2026

  Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

  Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Rail is set to begin passenger rail operations on 30 June 2026, launching an introductory operational phase on the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah route. Tickets are already on sale through the operator’s digital platforms.

  The passenger roll-out marks a major milestone for Etihad Rail, the developer and operator of the UAE’s National Rail Network. Established in 2009, the company was tasked with delivering a roughly 900-kilometre railway linking key cities, ports and industrial hubs from Ghuwaifat to Fujairah on the eastern coast.

  The launch comes less than five years after the UAE announced its ambition to create a national passenger railway under the country’s “Projects of the 50” programme, which aims to support economic diversification and sustainable development.

  According to Etihad Rail, passenger services will be introduced in planned phases through 2026 and 2027:

  • 23 June 2026: Passenger tickets went on sale via the Etihad Rail app and a dedicated booking website (as well as the contact centre for certain fares)
  • 30 June 2026: Introductory operational phase begins with services between Abu Dhabi and Fujairah only
  • 30 September 2026: Passenger rail services formally commence and expand to include Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Al-Dhaid and Fujairah
  • 30 December 2026: Services extend to Al-Dhafra stations
  • 30 March 2027: Services expand further to include Sharjah

  Customers can book tickets up to four weeks before travel. Tickets for new destinations will be released in line with the phased roll-out.

  Once fully operational, Etihad Rail’s passenger service will connect 11 cities and regions across the UAE, supported by a station network that links key urban and economic centres. The station list includes:

  • Abu Dhabi – Mohamed Bin Zayed City Station
  • Dubai – Al-Yalayis Station
  • Sharjah – University City Station
  • Fujairah Station
  • Al-Dhaid Station
  • Al-Dhannah Station
  • Madinat Zayed Station
  • Liwa Station
  • Al-Mirfa Station
  • Al-Sila Station
  • Al-Faya Station

  For the initial Abu Dhabi–Fujairah service starting 30 June, Etihad Rail said fares will start from AED55 for Comfort class and AED120 for Premium class. The operator added that future fares and routes will be announced separately.

  The operator will offer two travel classes:

  • Comfort: guaranteed seating, Wi‑Fi, power at every seat and luggage space
  • Premium: wider reclining seats, extra legroom and complimentary refreshments

  Within each class, passengers can choose from three fare types based on flexibility:

  • Saver: lowest fare for fixed plans; available only via the app, booking website and contact centre
  • Value: includes complimentary seat selection and ticket changes
  • Flex: includes seat selection, ticket changes and refunds

  Etihad Rail said introductory fares are designed to encourage early uptake and will be available for a limited period, with pricing expected to transition “towards a more advanced fare structure and, ultimately, a broader fare framework” as the service matures.

  Etihad Rail’s passenger trains will have a maximum speed of 200km/h and, once fully operational, each train will carry up to 400 passengers, with an expected annual ridership of about 10 million.

  The journey times are as follows:

  • Abu Dhabi to Fujairah: 105 minutes
  • Abu Dhabi to Dubai: 57 minutes
  • Dubai to Fujairah: 69 minutes

  Train features include generous legroom, Wi‑Fi, power at every seat, foldable tray tables, overhead storage, space for larger baggage and accessibility provisions. Station features include clear signage, comfortable waiting areas, staff assistance, accessibility features and parking.

  Etihad Rail said the onboard experience is designed around “comfort and time well spent”, enabling passengers to work, relax or switch off in a “calm and spacious environment” with guaranteed seating, Wi‑Fi and charging points.

  Etihad Rail’s network currently supports freight operations across 11 terminals and four major ports, underpinning supply chain efficiency, emissions reduction and national connectivity.

  The company also pointed to the broader economic value of the UAE Railway Programme, stating that it creates opportunities worth AED200bn, while passenger rail is expected to generate around AED91bn in economic and social benefits over the next 50 years, driven by faster, safer and more efficient travel.

  Etihad Rail also differentiated the new passenger service from the UAE’s future high-speed rail plans, saying passenger rail is intended to connect more communities across the country with an affordable and comfortable service, while high-speed rail is being designed for “very fast journeys between central points of our major cities”, describing the two as “different products and services designed for different types of journeys”.

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  Saipem sells Saudi jack-up drilling business to ADES for $285m

  26 June 2026

  Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

  Italian oil and gas contractor Saipem has signed a binding agreement to sell its Saudi Arabia-based shallow-water drilling subsidiary to Al-Khobar-based ADES Holding Company for $285m.

  Under the deal, ADES Saudi, an indirect subsidiary of Saudi Exchange-listed ADES Holding, will acquire Saudi Arabian Saipem, which operates a fleet of five jack-up rigs.

  The fleet includes three owned rigs – Perro Negro 7, Perro Negro 8, and Perro Negro 10 – as well as two leased rigs, Perro Negro 11 and Perro Negro 13.

  The transaction is structured on a debt-free, cash-free basis and will be settled entirely in cash upon closing. Completion is expected in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals and other closing conditions.

  The purchase of Saudi Arabian Saipem by ADES Holding follows the company’s takeover of Dubai-based, Oslo-listed Shelf Drilling in November last year, in a transaction valued at $379m. Following the completion of the cash merger, Shelf Drilling was wholly delisted from the Oslo Stock Exchange.

  The combined Shelf Drilling-ADES entity has been operating as a strong global player in shallow-water drilling with a fleet of 83 offshore jack-ups, including 46 premium jack-ups and 40 onshore rigs, across the world’s most prolific basins. The acquisition expanded ADES Holding’ global footprint from 13 to 19 countries, allowing entry and deeper operational integration into Southeast Asia, India, West Africa, the North Sea and the broader Mediterranean.

  Saudi Arabian Saipem generated revenues of SR636m ($170m) during 2025, highlighting the scale of the business being transferred.

  As part of the agreement, Saipem will retain operational access to the Perro Negro 10 rig through a bareboat charter arrangement after the sale closes. The arrangement will allow the company to continue fulfilling existing commitments in Mexico without disruption.

  The divestment aligns with Saipem’s broader industrial strategy of reducing exposure to mature shallow-water drilling markets and concentrating resources on deepwater and harsh-environment offshore projects, where technical complexity and barriers to entry are generally higher.

  These segments have attracted growing investment in recent years as operators pursue offshore developments in regions such as the North Sea, Brazil, West Africa and the US Gulf of Mexico.

  For ADES, the acquisition further expands its presence in the Middle East offshore drilling market, particularly in Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest offshore jack-up rig markets, driven by activity from Saudi Aramco.

  Saipem said proceeds from the transaction will be used in accordance with the objectives outlined in its industrial plan. The Milan-listed company was advised on the transaction by Moelis & Company as financial adviser and Clifford Chance, together with AS&H Clifford Chance, as legal counsel.

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  Indrajit Sen