Familiar realities threaten Egypt’s energy ambitions
7 February 2024
This package on Egypt's power sector also includes:
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> Egypt president and Putin mark El Dabaa construction
> EBRD invests in 1.1GW Egypt wind farm
> Scatec in talks for Nagaa Hammadi solar project
> Team signs land deal for 1.1GW Egypt wind project
> Acwa Power moves forward with Egypt green hydrogen project

As of early 2024, Egypt appears to have come full circle in terms of providing electricity services to its citizens.
The country faced severe power shortages in 2013-14, which gave way to the fast-tracked construction of 14.4GW of gas-powered generation capacity in 2018. This, along with the increase in renewable energy capacity, resulted in a surplus of up to 25%, yet since late last year consumers have once again been experiencing power outages lasting up to two hours.
This time, however, the power outages – which began in the summer of 2023 and are expected to last until March this year – are not due to a capacity deficit.
The government-initiated load-shedding programme initially aimed to rein in rising electricity consumption and reduce pressure on the country's gas network.
According to the country’s Electricity & Renewable Energy Ministry, national electricity consumption reached 43,650MW in mid-July last year, up significantly from previous highs of about 31,000MW.
While the record-high consumption level is still way below the official generation installed capacity of close to 60,000MW, consumption levels of between 34,000MW and 36,000MW will require around 129-146 million cubic metres of gas and diesel a day.
Barring load-shedding, any increase in consumption beyond 36,000MW will require a commensurate increase in gas and diesel, which is understood to be beyond the government’s capacity to procure.
Crucially, the other side of the electricity rationing initiative has to do with the need to save gas for exports, to boost the government’s dollar reserves in the face of the ongoing currency crisis.
Frustration over the power cuts and their impact on job productivity and the overall economy has been growing over the past few months.
There are no magic pills, however, and any solution needs to start with broader economic and energy sector reforms, to improve the prospects of attracting investments, notes Jessica Obeid, a partner at Dubai-headquartered New Energy Consult.
“Reducing reliance on gas for domestic power generation and increasing renewable energy plus storage are critical, not only to reduce the shortage gap but also to improve energy security, since one gas field, Zohr, feeds almost half of the domestic needs,” she explains. “In the immediate term, doubling down on energy-efficient measures and demand-side management is needed.”
It is an awkward and unprecedented situation for the North African state, which has espoused a clear intention – and started executing relevant projects – to establish itself as a regional energy hub, exporting natural gas and electricity to neighbouring countries, as well as to Europe.
“The government has signaled its prioritisation of exports, although no economy can grow nor become a hub while dealing with energy shortages,” Obeid says.
“The Egyptian government has showcased that the focus is on economic revenues from gas exports, even if that is at the expense of the living conditions of the citizens. However, Egypt cannot realise its hefty regional ambitions without efficient measures and reforms to mend the high domestic reliance on gas, and the lower gas production prospects.”
Another expert on Egypt’s energy policies notes that the country is in a tough spot and “needs ideas to move ahead from this”.
In addition to its energy hub plans, Egypt could look into other opportunities such as setting up repair hubs for ships, as well as education centres to cater to the needs of those hubs, the expert suggests, while noting – as Obeid does – the need for wide-ranging reforms, including improving the rule of law and developing alternative sources of wealth and income.
Important milestones
Six months of electricity rationing makes it easy to overlook the cumulative – though, in hindsight, insufficient – steps that Egypt has taken to avoid falling once again into the power outage trap.
Egypt has one of the highest renewable energy penetration rates in relation to overall installed capacity in the Middle East and North Africa region. While this is commendable, it has only served to highlight the weakness of the country's electricity grid when it comes to handling intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.
Nonetheless, the country is continuing to build additional renewable energy capacity, including hydropower, and with the help of Russian financing, it has also embarked on the construction of its first nuclear power plant. These projects could replace the ageing oil and gas fleet, lowering the sector's emissions while also supporting the country's energy diversification and security agendas.
Egypt aims to be a global green hydrogen and ammonia hub, and signed preliminary agreements for over a dozen such schemes when it hosted the UN global climate summit, Cop27, in November 2022.
If these projects reach the execution stage, not only do they have the potential to advance the country’s ambition to be a global green energy hub, they will also help to attract much-needed dollars to fund its economic diversification plans.
However, the ability to implement reforms and develop bankable projects lies at the heart of the deployment of any technology in Egypt, points out Obeid.
“Egypt’s existing experience in hydrogen, and being part of that trade market, along with abundant renewable energy resources, a vast land [area] and the country’s geographic location are enablers of a hydrogen market," she says.
“Yet, Egypt’s economic and financial challenges have led to higher interest rates, lower lending capacity and higher costs for system components, and these need to be addressed first.”
Never say die
Despite a bleak short- to medium-term outlook, some projects are moving ahead in Egypt.
The European Bank for Reconstruction & Development will invest $75m in equity in the Netherlands-based subsidiary of Egypt's Hassan Allam Utilities, which along with Saudi utility developer Acwa Power is co-developing a wind independent power producer scheme in the country's Gulf of Suez and Gabal El Zeit area.
Acwa Power also reached financial close for a 200MW solar photovoltaic facility in Kom Ombo in August last year, two years after the project was put on hold due to rising solar panel and freight costs.
Even the 505MW Amunet wind farm project, located in Ras Ghareb in the Gulf of Suez on the Red Sea coast, is moving ahead. A consortium of the UAE-based Amea Power and Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation last year enlisted Shanghai-headquartered Envision Energy to supply wind turbines for the project.
According to the New & Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), solar and wind projects with a total capacity of close to 3.5GW were under development in Egypt as of the end of 2023, while schemes totalling 39GW are in the planning stage.
Hydrogen and ammonia
In November, Abu Dhabi-based Fertiglobe delivered what might have been the world's first internationally certified renewable ammonia from its pilot electrolyser site in Egypt to India. The ammonia will be used to produce near-zero-emissions synthetic soda ash – a key ingredient in laundry powder – for Unilever.
Several planned integrated green hydrogen projects in Egypt are in the pre-front-end engineering and design (pre-feed) stage.
One of the green ammonia projects is being developed by Germany's DAI Infrastruktur. To be located in East Port Said, the Ra green ammonia project will have a total production capacity of 2 million tonnes a year (mtpa) of green ammonia, of which 1.65 mtpa is expected to be based purely on renewable energy resources when complete.
DAI has signed a preliminary agreement with Siemens Energy, which plans to supply electrolysers, auxiliary plant systems and critical equipment making up the hydrogen island of the project.
DAI and UK-headquartered Freepan Holding are also understood to have signed an offtake agreement for the ammonia produced at the Ra plant. The 10-year offtake agreement covers 800,000 tonnes a year of ammonia, with the first green ammonia delivery to Freepan expected in 2028.
A similarly sized project is being developed by Amea Power in the coastal town of Ain Sokhna in the Suez governorate. The company is in the process of appointing pre-feed consultants and contractors that will undertake geotechnical, topography and environmental studies for the project.
Detailed studies are also under way for interconnections transporting clean energy from Egypt to Europe, as the latter seeks alternatives to Russian energy exports.
Stakeholders in these projects will continue to monitor the Egyptian government's management of its energy policies at home and abroad over the next few months as they decide the next steps in their investment plans.
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Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority (SPGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has invited expressions of interest from firms to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organisation (SASO) headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.
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War undermines business case for Middle East LNG13 April 2026

The US and Israel’s conflict with Iran is undermining the business case for Middle East LNG projects by driving up prices, destroying demand for the super-chilled fuel, damaging infrastructure and eroding confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers.
By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has removed around 20% of global LNG supply from the market and, for some importers, has effectively doubled prices.
Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict.
The current wave of high prices has exacerbated concerns about LNG price volatility and has already changed the minds of some countries and businesses that were planning to make large investments to facilitate LNG imports.
If these projects do not go ahead as planned, it could limit future global LNG demand, dimming the long-term outlook for businesses that depend on LNG export revenues.
As well as facing longer-term demand likely to fall short of previous expectations, LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar are also being hit in the short term as infrastructure has been damaged by Iranian strikes and sales are being blocked by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The lost revenues and ongoing security issues are casting a shadow over major LNG export expansion plans in the GCC, collectively worth more than $35bn, which could now face significant delays.
Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict
Affordability issues
LNG production stopped in Qatar on 2 March 2026 and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, removing around 80 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG supply from global markets.
The North Field East expansion project, currently under construction and expected to add 32 million t/y, was anticipated to start up in November 2026, but could now face considerable delays.
The project is estimated to be worth $28.8bn, making it the biggest LNG project ever sanctioned
In a statement released last month, Daniel Toleman, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz lasting five to six months would push annual global LNG supply into a year-on-year decline.
“Even if supply were maintained at 2025 levels, the market would still face demand destruction in Asia, lower storage injections in Europe, and sustained upward pressure on gas and LNG prices,” he added.
“Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.”
Beyond the closure of the strait, Qatar’s LNG business has also been dealt a significant setback by Iranian attacks on infrastructure.
Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and minister of state for energy affairs, said the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.
Repairs to damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.
UAE setbacks
The UAE has also seen significant disruption to its LNG operations, with shipments from its only LNG export terminal, located on Das Island, severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Although it has not formally declared force majeure, virtually all of its LNG output has been removed from global markets because it has no pipeline or alternative routes for LNG exports.
The ongoing energy crisis has increased uncertainty about the UAE’s planned $5.5bn LNG export terminal, being developed at the Ruwais industrial complex.
In recent weeks, the Ruwais industrial complex was targeted by Iran, causing a fire at the site. The location could also face similar shipping problems to the Das Island facility in the future, as it too requires LNG exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oman exports
With its LNG export terminals located on the country’s northeast coast, Oman’s exports do not require the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and it has escaped most of the negative impacts that have hit the UAE and Qatar.
However, Oman’s state-owned integrated energy company, OQ, has still been affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to its activities as an LNG trader.
Last month, OQ Trading, the company’s international trading and marketing arm, declared force majeure on LNG shipments to Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla.
Replacing LNG
Analysts say the demand destruction now taking place in LNG-importing nations is likely to have a long-term impact on future LNG demand.
Countries where planned LNG import-related projects have been cancelled or are being reconsidered include Vietnam, China and New Zealand.
Christopher Doleman, a gas specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa), believes that long-term demand for LNG will be eroded by the current crisis.
“Prior to the war, a lot of countries were already somewhat hesitant to develop new LNG import infrastructure,” he said.
“There were existing concerns about the high price of LNG and potential volatility, and these concerns have increased significantly since the war began, leading several developers to consider other options, which in some cases include renewables projects.
“Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years.”
On 30 March, China’s state-owned energy company Sinopec said it was terminating a planned LNG import terminal project worth 5.6bn yuan ($820m) and reallocating the money to developing domestic gas resources.
The company said developing domestic resources was more cost-effective than developing LNG import infrastructure.
In Vietnam, conglomerate Vingroup has asked the government to allow it to replace a planned $6bn LNG power project – previously set to be the country’s largest – with a renewable energy project, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
US-based GE Vernova, which had been selected to supply gas turbines and generators for the 4.8GW project, was informed of Vingroup’s revised plans in a document sent on 25 March.
Instead of the LNG-powered plant, Vingroup asked Vietnam’s industry ministry to consider an investment plan for a hybrid renewable energy project combined with a battery energy storage system (bess).
A bess stores electricity from renewable sources to maximise its use by discharging power during peak demand.
The document did not specify the type of renewable energy to be used, but estimated the cost of the bess project at around $25bn, saying it would be a viable alternative to the LNG-powered plant if equipped with appropriate transmission infrastructure.
If Vietnam follows through on its pivot away from LNG towards renewables, it could directly affect future export deals for Qatar, which is currently one of the country’s LNG suppliers.
Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years
Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial AnalysisSecond thoughts
In New Zealand, plans announced last year for a new LNG terminal on the country’s North Island are becoming increasingly uncertain.
In February, the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki. But on 30 March, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the government would only approve the project if the business case made sense.
“If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. Until we see the commercials on it, we’ll make the decision then,” he said.
Mike Roan, chief executive of New Zealand’s Meridian Energy, said US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on 28 February had made the project much less likely to go ahead.
“It feels like the Americans might have put a bazooka, literally, through that proposal,” he said.
It has been reported that ministers are considering replacing the project with a major hydroelectric power station, which was referred to the country’s fast-track consent panel in the last week of March.
The future of a planned $3bn project to develop an LNG import terminal and gas power plant in South Africa is also now in doubt after executives delayed the final investment decision (FID).
Speaking at a conference on 4 March, Oliver Naidu from Netherlands-based Royal Vopak said the company now plans to decide on the $3bn terminal in the first quarter of 2028.
The power station and regasification complex, slated for development in the Durban area, would have had the capacity to produce 1.0-1.8GW of electricity.
Nuclear and coal
In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) restarted unit 2 at its Kori nuclear power plant this month.
The facility had been offline for three years since its original 40-year operating permit expired in April 2023.
Commenting on the restart, KHNP president Kim Hoe-Cheon said: “In a situation where energy supply instability persists, the continued operation of nuclear power plants based on safety is an important means of securing national energy security.”
Across Asia, there has also been a surge in the use of both solar and coal amid high LNG prices.
In Pakistan, the country’s Power Minister, Awais Leghari, said that the country would pivot away from LNG to focus on domestically produced coal.
“With a reduction in LNG generation, plants running on locally mined coal will be able to produce more during off-peak hours,” Leghari told Reuters.
Similar coal ramp-ups are also taking place in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.
Coleman believes increased use of both coal and renewables could mean LNG’s role in the global energy mix falls short of previous expectations over the coming years.
“It’s possible that we will see a dual surge – where both renewables and coal use are ramped up,” he said.
“This is an interesting prospect because it will effectively remove gas as a so-called ‘bridge-fuel’ and we may see the transition progressing more directly to the use of renewables and battery storage, with less of a role for gas than was previously expected.
“Really, it’s turned out that LNG was just a bridge to volatility and insecurity compared to something like solar, which is very reliable and predictable.”
Eroded outlook
The demand destruction in LNG-importing countries driven by the current energy crisis is likely to mean that the long-term market for LNG exports could be significantly smaller than previously thought, negatively impacting LNG producers worldwide.
Qatar and the UAE are likely to be hit harder than producers in other regions for several reasons.
Attacks on infrastructure and disruptions to shipping are preventing them from capitalising on the current period of high prices, while producers in other regions are recording windfall profits.
In addition, dealing with the logistical and financial consequences of the conflict is likely to divert resources away from progressing new projects, pursuing efficiencies and securing future customers.
Another factor likely to weigh on LNG operators in Qatar and the UAE is the persistence of customer concerns about the reliability of shipping LNG via the Strait of Hormuz.
This could compel Adnoc Gas and QatarEnergy to sell at a relative discount compared with sellers in other regions, or to increase contractual flexibility.
It could even push these producers to rethink future projects to diversify export routes. For Qatar, this could take the form of a gas pipeline via neighbouring countries. For the UAE, one option could be developing an LNG terminal on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing reliance on the bottleneck controlled by Iran.
While the current conflict is a major setback for LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and security risks diminish, it is likely that exports will ramp up relatively quickly and former clients will return.
However, questions remain about when this will happen. If safe passage for LNG tankers can be secured within days or weeks, the long-term impact is likely to be limited.
If disruption continues for longer, it could transform the outlook for the Middle East’s LNG sector for years to come.
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