Events in January will shape Saudi market in 2024
1 February 2024
Register for MEED's guest programme
January was a pivotal month for Saudi Arabia with a series of significant events that will shape how the market performs in 2024.
The month started well with major project deals signed that boosted confidence further after the market recorded its best-ever total value of contracts awarded. That optimism was tempered later in the month as fresh concerns over the outlook for project spending emerged after a high-profile corruption case and a government directive instructing Saudi Aramco to halt its plans to increase the kingdom’s oil production capacity.
Oil decision
In a statement on 30 January, Aramco said it had received a directive from the energy ministry to maintain its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) at 12 million barrels a day (b/d). The state energy giant had previously been set a target of achieving an oil output spare capacity of 13 million b/d by 2027.
While some have interpreted the decision as a political move aimed at propping up the global oil price, others say it has been made to reduce capital expenditure commitments so Aramco can make larger dividend payments to its shareholders. The government holds a 90% share of the company, the PIF owns an 8% stake, and the remaining 2% of the shares are listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul).
Building boom
For construction, the largest contract award in January was the $4.7bn deal signed by Italy’s WeBuild to deliver three dams at the Trojena mountain resort in Neom that will host the 2029 Asian Winter Games. Other major deals included the SR1.8bn deal signed by Dubai-based Alec for constructing the Ilmi Centre at Misk, and the local MBL being selected for the contract to build the opera house at Jeddah Central.
Meanwhile at Al Ula, the kingdom’s Oversight & Anti-Corruption Authority (Nazaha) has suspended the CEO of the Royal Commission for Al Ula Governorate on the grounds of corruption and money-laundering charges. The charges against the executive, Amr Bin Saleh Abdul Rahman Al Madani, relate to his activities both before and during his role at the Royal Commission, involving the awards of contracts to a company named National Talents Company (TalentS).
Economic forecasts
These developments came amid a backdrop of mixed economic data. In mid-January, the Washington-based IMF revised the expected real GDP growth figure for Saudi Arabia in 2024 to 2.7%, down from the projection of 4% that it made three months earlier in October. The downgraded forecast reflects Saudi Arabia’s deepening oil production cuts.
Saudi Arabia’s additional voluntary cuts are by far the deepest by Opec+, with Riyadh agreeing to cut its oil production by a further 1 million barrels a day (b/d) through to the end of Q1 2024 – a cut double the size of the voluntary 500,000 b/d reduction by Russia – the next largest – for the same period.
Despite Western sanctions, Russia has also overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest source of oil imports in 2023. According to Chinese customs data released on 22 January, China – the largest oil importer in the world – purchased a record 107.2 million tonnes of crude oil from Russia last year, about 25% more than in 2022. Falling by 1.8%, China imported about 86 million tonnes of oil from Saudi Arabia.
A more positive indicator for Saudi Arabia is FDI. The kingdom’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows increased by 29.1% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous three months, according to the Saudi Central Bank.
FDI inflows reached SR7.99bn ($2.13bn), rising from SR6.2bn recorded in the previous quarter. The announcement follows last year’s amendment of the country’s FDI calculation methodology by the government in Riyadh, showing that inflows doubled from 2015 to 2022.
Debt deals
As the economic outlook cools, Riyadh has tapped the debt markets. At the start of January, the Finance Ministry said it expects to borrow $23bn in 2024. The financing will be used to finance the deficit in the state budget and to pay existing debt that matures. The ministry added that by the end of 2024, it expects the kingdom’s total debt portfolio to reach SR1.115tn, which is about 29 per cent of GDP. That announcement was quickly followed by the issuance of $12bn of bonds under Saudi Arabia’s Global Medium-Term Note Issuance Programme (GMTN). Later in January, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) completed a $5bn bond issuance.
Both the government and the PIF could receive a cash boost from selling more shares in Saudi Aramco on the Tadawul. On 31 January, Bloomberg reported that the kingdom is working with a group of advisers and is seeking to potentially raise at least $10bn.
These developments are important for the projects sector. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, there are contracts valued at $181bn at the tender stage in the kingdom. The prospects for many of these pending deals will be shaped by what happened in January.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Oman’s Barka 5 IWP solar plant begins full operations1 May 2026
Spain’s GS Inima has begun permanent operations at the solar photovoltaic (PV) plant serving the Barka 5 independent water project (IWP) in Oman.
The solar facility is the third of its kind in Oman to power a large-scale desalination facility through a self-supply model.
In a statement, GS Inima said it will provide up to 50% of the desalination plant’s electricity needs during daytime operations, improving efficiency and reducing reliance on external power sources.
The PV plant has an installed capacity of 6.5MWp. It is designed to optimise energy consumption at the adjacent reverse osmosis desalination facility.
The project was developed by GS Inima in collaboration with local firm Nafath Renewable Energy as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor. China-based OCA Global provided owner’s engineering services.
The Barka 5 IWP has a desalination capacity of approximately 100,000 cubic metres a day.
GS Inima won the contract to develop the Barka 5 IWP project in November 2020. As previously reported, financial close was reached in 2022, and construction of the facility was completed in 2024.
The self-supply solar PV plant is equipped with 10,504 bifacial modules supplied by China’s Jinko Solar. These are mounted on fixed structures provided by Mibet Energy.
Power is managed through 18 Sungrow inverters with a total capacity of 320kWac each, while electricity is fed into the desalination plant through an 11kV connection.
The integration of solar power supports the efficiency of the Barka 5 facility, which has an energy consumption rate of 2.7kWh per cubic metre.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16645971/main.jpg -
Qiddiya receives high-speed rail PPP prequalifications1 May 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.
This follows the submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) package on 16 April, as reported by MEED.
The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.
The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of the city.
In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project, including 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.
In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.
Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16641057/main.gif -
Bid deadline extensions hint at tighter project market1 May 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorThere has been a steady run of bid deadline extensions across major power and water projects in recent weeks.
The latest is the Al-Dibdibah and Al-Shagaya solar independent power producer (IPP) plant in Kuwait, where the submission date has been moved again to 31 May, following an earlier shift from February to the end of April. Similarly, bidding for the first phase of the Al-Khairan IWPP has also been extended.
In Bahrain, bidding for the 1.2GW Sitra IWPP has been pushed back by another month to 17 May, having already been under main contract tender since last August.
Meanwhile, in Dubai, contractors have been given additional time to submit bids for both the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant expansion and a dams rehabilitation project in Hatta.
Individually, these shifts are not unusual, and extensions are a routine part of the procurement cycle, especially with large, capital-intensive schemes.
However, amid regional tensions and increasingly complex risk profiles, stakeholders are having to weigh up how much they can absorb, whether that is performance guarantees, financing exposure or delivery risk.
For contractors and developers, this could mean looking more closely at supply chains, insurance costs and the potential for disruption. Lenders, too, are likely taking a more measured view on long-term exposure.
This caution can show up in the bid process. More internal approvals, more conservative pricing, and in some cases, perhaps a hesitation to commit altogether.
At the same time, strong pipelines across the GCC mean contractors are not short of work. Firms can afford to be selective, focusing on projects where risk and return are better aligned.
Clients, in turn, face a choice. Push ahead with more limited competition or extend and try to draw in stronger participation. Most appear to be opting for the latter.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640998/main.jpg -
Saudi Arabia launches $2bn Jawharat Al-Arous project1 May 2026
Saudi Arabia has launched Jawharat Al-Arous, an SR8bn ($2bn) private-sector-led residential development in north Jeddah.
The scheme covers 107 million square metres and comprises 18 residential neighbourhoods planned to accommodate more than 700,000 residents. It will provide more than 80,000 residential and commercial plots.
The masterplan also includes 41 government-backed infrastructure and service zones to support large-scale urban expansion.
The project was unveiled by Mecca Region Governor Khalid Al-Faisal and will be overseen by Saud Bin Mishaal Bin Abdulaziz.
According to a recent report by real estate firm Cavendish Maxwell, Jeddah’s residential stock stood at about 1.09 million units at the end of 2025, following the completion of around 4,000 units that year.
An expanding pipeline of about 18,000 units in 2026 and 22,000 units in 2027 is expected to bring total stock to around 1.14 million units by 2027, gradually adding supply without destabilising market equilibrium.
GlobalData expects the Saudi construction industry to grow by 3.6% in real terms in 2026, supported by increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
The residential construction sector is forecast to grow by 3.8% in real terms in 2026 and to record an average annual growth rate of 4.7% between 2027 and 2030, supported by Saudi Vision 2030’s goal of increasing homeownership from 65.4% in 2024 to 70% by 2030, including through the delivery of 600,000 homes by 2030.
MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:
> COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
> GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
> BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
> UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
> POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
> WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
> CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
> TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure pushTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640863/main.png -
Damage to US bases in region expected to cost more than $15bn1 May 2026
The $25bn estimate a Pentagon official gave US lawmakers on 29 April did not include the cost of repairing damage to US bases in the Middle East, and the real cost of the war is likely to be between $40bn and $50bn, according to CNN.
That would put the cost of repairing bases and replacing destroyed assets at between $15bn and $25bn.
Jules Hurst III, the Pentagon official serving as the agency’s comptroller, told the House Armed Services Committee that “most” of the $25bn he cited had been spent on munitions. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declined to say whether the figure included repairs to damaged US bases.
Iranian strikes across the Gulf in the early days of the war significantly damaged at least nine US military sites in 48 hours, hitting facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar.
Six US servicemembers were killed in an attack on a command post in Kuwait, and 20 more were injured.
Three sources told CNN that the figure provided to the House Armed Services Committee did not include the cost of rebuilding US military installations and replacing destroyed assets.
One source said the true cost would likely be between $40bn and $50bn.
US contractors such as KBR and Fluor, as well as local firms, are likely to be among the leading contenders for contracts to repair and rebuild US bases in the region.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16638663/main.gif