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  Mergers loom over Bahrain’s banking system

  5 November 2025

  

   

  The memorandum of understanding signed between National Bank of Bahrain (NBB) and Bank of Bahrain and Kuwait (BBK) on 2 November, advancing talks towards a formal merger, provides a welcome boost to a banking sector that has felt the headwinds of Bahrain’s challenging economic situation.

  Building scale is a key ambition for Bahraini banks, and recent merger activity has helped local lenders find synergies, sometimes through acquisition from non-Bahraini peers. 

  The Kuwait Finance House (KFH) acquisition of Ahli United Bank (AUB) in October 2022 helped forge one of the Gulf’s largest players. The local Al-Salam Bank completed the acquisition of the consumer banking business of Ithmaar Bank that year, building one of the island’s largest sharia-compliant lenders.

  More recently, HSBC Bank’s Bahrain branch has transferred its retail banking business to BBK, an example of a domestic player taking assets off a foreign institution. Kuwait’s Burgan Bank, meanwhile, completed in Q1 2025 the acquisition of Bahrain’s United Gulf Bank (UGB) for $190m.    

  NBB and BBK would make for a robust marriage of two large conventional Bahraini lenders. The former saw its assets grow 8% year-on-year to BD5.97bn ($15.8bn) in H1 2025, while BBK’s assets as of the end of September 2025 stood at BD4.6bn ($12.2bn), up 9.6% on the same period last year. 

  This looming combination would have heft in a banking system marked by a large number of institutions (83 in total in September).

  A joint statement from the two banks said that should the merger proceed, it “has the potential to create a stronger, more dynamic and forward-looking entity with enhanced scale, agility, and capabilities”.

  Market adjustment

  The likely outcome of a stronger bank with a higher market share is a positive for Bahrain. And yet, given the banks’ continued exposure to a sovereign with weak finances and an overreliance on oil revenues, the simple fact of merging does not override existing challenges. 

  Although Manama boasts some of the Gulf’s longest-established banking institutions, these are still subject to a rating environment reflective of a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio forecast to rise to 136% in 2026, according to Fitch Ratings. The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 9% of GDP through 2026, driven by high interest costs and reliance on oil revenue.

  This has real-world impacts on the banking system. In April 2025, Fitch revised Bahrain’s outlook to negative, noting that while it benefits from strong financial support from GCC partners, the ratings agency identified low foreign reserves and high external debt as posing significant risks.  

  By way of illustration, NBB’s main exposure is to the Bahraini sovereign (at BD1.8bn – $4.8bn – or 3.3x common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital, at end-2024), mostly in the form of debt securities, but also in lending to the government and Treasury bills. NBB is also exposed to the sovereign through lending to quasi-government entities, notes Fitch.

  Fitch-rated Bahraini banks are constrained by the sovereign rating of ‘B+’ or capped by Bahrain’s country ceiling. “Despite this, these banks’ standalone financial profiles and metrics in particular compare well with some higher-rated GCC peers,” says Amin Sakhri, director, Financial Institutions for Fitch Ratings.

  “We see a lot of common features in relation to the operating environment to the rest of the GCC,” says Sakhri. “Bahrain is highly dependent on government spending, and highly dependent on oil prices. But the difference is that, in the case of Bahrain, the sovereign rating is lower, which leads to a less dynamic operating environment – particularly in terms of the ability of the sovereign to stimulate the economy relative to other GCC banking sectors.”

  Sustained asset strength

  Although this has a detrimental effect on the operating environment relative to other countries, Bahraini banks have sufficient armoury to protect themselves from sovereign-linked fiscal challenges.

  “Looking at the metrics, capital buffers have remained fairly sound in 2025 and the performance has also been stable relative to 2024, so there’s nothing to cause concern. One of the key strengths of the banking sector remains capitalisation levels,” says Sakhri.

  According to the analyst, banks such as NBB and BBK are showing strong capital buffers, comparing favourably with GCC peers, and asset quality metrics are not necessarily weaker than at banks in the banking sectors of Qatar (BB operating environment), the UAE (BBB+) or Saudi Arabia (BBB+).

  Another source of comfort is that two out of the five Fitch-rated Bahraini banks are very little exposed to the domestic operating environment and their ratings are not constrained by Bahrain’s sovereign rating. 

  The financial sector remains a prop of the Bahraini economy. Central Bank of Bahrain governor Khalid Humaidan told a meeting of regional bank governors in mid-October that financial services was the largest sectoral contributor to the national economy, accounting for 17% of GDP.

  Humaidan also noted that digital advancements are helping to enhance credit access and support small businesses.

  “Projects are being deployed by the Bahraini government, albeit at a more modest level than in other places in the GCC, given the sovereign’s weaker financial flexibility,” says Sakhri.

  While credit growth is well below the high rates seen in some neighbouring economies, analysts see room for a respectable performance.

  “A lending growth of about 5%-6% next year for the sector can be expected, despite the weaker operating environment score relative to other GCC countries,” says Sakhri. 

  One new lending opportunity may come through a government plan to boost housing. The  Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning launched a new financing option, Tasheel+, earlier this year, in collaboration with local banks. Lenders will provide financing, while the ministry will cover government support payments directly to the banks.

  The CBB is also looking to burnish its reputation as a leading regulator, having established the region’s first fintech sandbox as far back as mid-2017. It has recently developed a new framework for stablecoins. More recently, the CBB announced the launch of an SME Fund, after a strategic agreement between Bahrain Development Bank, NBB, BBK and Al-Salam Bank.

  These initiatives, combined with recent M&A moves, should give added impetus to a banking sector that is looking to exert a more dynamic impact on the local and regional economy.

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  James Gavin
• 
  Emaar launches Terra Gardens project in Expo City

  5 November 2025

  Dubai-based real estate developer Emaar Properties has launched the Terra Gardens residential project in partnership with Dubai World Trade Centre at Expo City Dubai.

  The development will offer 560 one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and townhouses.

  Terra Gardens will be located adjacent to Expo Mall.

  The development is part of the Expo Living masterplan, which spans 451,295 square metres. The masterplan comprises five residential communities with a total of 3,555 residential units.

  Terra Gardens follows the launch last month of Emaar Hills, a new masterplanned community adjacent to Dubai Hills Estate.

  Emaar Hills will offer more than 40,000 residential units.

  It will include a limited collection of mansions ranging from 10,000 to 20,000 square feet.

  Emaar Hills will also feature a golf course, retail amenities, and other wellness and leisure facilities.

  Emaar has also purchased a land bank in the Ras Al-Khor area adjacent to its Dubai Creek Harbour masterplan, as disclosed in its H1 2025 financial report. Emaar plans to launch another masterplanned community on that plot in the near future.

  Emaar’s latest project launch reflects increased activity in the UAE real estate market, which has led major developers to report record revenues in recent years. 

  Dubai Financial Market‑listed Emaar Properties reported a net profit of AED7.1bn ($1.9bn) in H1 2025, a 33% increase compared with the same period last year.

  The developer's revenues surged to AED19.8bn in the first half of this year, which is a 38% increase from H1 2024.

  Emaar said that this was driven by “robust performance across development, retail, hospitality and international operations".

  Emaar has sold inventory worth AED46bn in H1 2025, which is 46% higher than the same period last year.

  UK-based data analytics firm GlobalData predicts the UAE construction sector to grow by 4.2% in real terms in 2025, driven by infrastructure, energy, utilities and residential construction projects. It is also estimated that projects worth more than $323bn are in the execution or planning stages in the UAE.

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  READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

  Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

  Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

  > AGENDA 1: Gulf LNG sector enters a new prolific phase > AGENDA 2:  Mena LNG infrastructure spending rises > INDUSTRY REPORT 1: Region sees evolving project finance demand > INDUSTRY REPORT 2: Iraq leads non-GCC project finance activity > PPPs: NCP showcases private sector project opportunities in Saudi Arabia > GREEN STEEL: Abu Dhabi takes the lead in green steel transition > DIGITISATION: Riyadh-based organisation drives digital growth > LEADERSHIP: Saudi Arabia’s housing boom risks leaving citizens behind  > UAE MARKET FOCUS: Investment shapes UAE growth story

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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  Yasir Iqbal
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  Decision imminent for UAE West Link project

  5 November 2025

  

   

  The UAE’s Etihad Rail is expected to finalise the contract by next month to build the 40-kilometre West Link project, which will connect the Abu Dhabi mainland to islands in the Gulf near Qatar.

  “The early contractor involvement (ECI) bid evaluation is in advanced stages, and the decision is expected in a few weeks,” sources close to the project told MEED.

  In June, MEED reported that the UAE had engaged two contracting groups on an ECI basis for the project.

  The two contracting groups selected are: Greece’s Archirodon partnering with local Western Bainoona Group (with Hewson Consulting as design firm), and Beijing-based China Harbour Engineering Corporation partnering with local NMDC (with Subana Jurong as design firm).

  The project involves constructing a 40km road link with two lanes in each direction. The road is planned to start near Ras Ghumais in the Western Region and extend to a ferry terminal on Makasib Island, which will then connect to Qatar.

  The ECI process requires selected contractors to submit methodologies for the project and a design proposal during the initial stages of procurement. It is understood that the conceptual design and social, economic and business case studies commenced early last year.

  The project is being overseen by the UAE’s Etihad Rail.

  Previous plans

  In 2005, Abu Dhabi and Doha were reported to have been setting up a joint company to oversee the implementation of a proposed UAE-Qatar causeway.

  The crossing would have significantly cut journey times. At present, traffic between Qatar and the UAE has to pass through 125km of Saudi Arabian territory.

  Back then, the causeway was planned to start near Sila in Abu Dhabi and extend to the south of Doha.

  The scheme ultimately stalled. Problems included difficulties with the route, which infringed on Saudi Arabia’s territorial waters.

  In June 2017, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar, preventing any potential joint infrastructure projects.

  In January 2021, the Al-Ula Declaration restored diplomatic ties, and economic cooperation has gradually resumed.

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  READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

  Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

  Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

  > AGENDA 1: Gulf LNG sector enters a new prolific phase > AGENDA 2:  Mena LNG infrastructure spending rises > INDUSTRY REPORT 1: Region sees evolving project finance demand > INDUSTRY REPORT 2: Iraq leads non-GCC project finance activity > PPPs: NCP showcases private sector project opportunities in Saudi Arabia > GREEN STEEL: Abu Dhabi takes the lead in green steel transition > DIGITISATION: Riyadh-based organisation drives digital growth > LEADERSHIP: Saudi Arabia’s housing boom risks leaving citizens behind  > UAE MARKET FOCUS: Investment shapes UAE growth story

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15022762/main.jpg

  Yasir Iqbal
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  Libya plans to tender $1bn pipeline project next year

  5 November 2025

  

   

  Libya’s Waha Oil Company, a subsidiary of state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), is planning to issue an invitation to bid for a major oil pipeline next year, according to industry sources.

  The pipeline will extend from oil fields in the south of Libya to the oil export terminal of Es Sider, and has an estimated value of between $1bn and $1.25bn.

  The 700-kilometre pipeline will have a diameter of 32 inches and the capacity to transport 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil.

  One source said: “At the moment, Waha is planning to issue this tender at some point in 2026. There have been a lot of delays with this project, but this should be possible.”

  Last month, MEED reported that the front-end engineering and design (feed) work for the project had been completed.

  In October, NOC announced that Libya’s crude oil production had reached 1,383,430 b/d.

  The company said that natural gas production was 2,519 million cubic feet a day (cf/d), while condensate production was 49,013 b/d.

  NOC said it aimed to further increase production capacity to approximately 1.6 million cf/d by 2026.

  ---

  READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

  Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

  Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

  > AGENDA 1: Gulf LNG sector enters a new prolific phase > AGENDA 2:  Mena LNG infrastructure spending rises > INDUSTRY REPORT 1: Region sees evolving project finance demand > INDUSTRY REPORT 2: Iraq leads non-GCC project finance activity > PPPs: NCP showcases private sector project opportunities in Saudi Arabia > GREEN STEEL: Abu Dhabi takes the lead in green steel transition > DIGITISATION: Riyadh-based organisation drives digital growth > LEADERSHIP: Saudi Arabia’s housing boom risks leaving citizens behind  > UAE MARKET FOCUS: Investment shapes UAE growth story

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15017758/main.jpg

  Wil Crisp
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  Aramco registers marginal jump in third quarter profit

  4 November 2025

  Saudi Aramco has registered a 0.9% jump in third-quarter 2025 profit on the back of higher production, even as oil prices remained under pressure.

  The Saudi energy giant’s adjusted net income in the third quarter stood at $28bn compared to $27.7bn in the same period of last year.

  The company recorded revenues of $111.5bn in the third quarter versus $109.66bn in the same period last year.

  “We increased production with minimal incremental cost, and reliably supplied the oil, gas and associated products our customers depend on, driving strong financial performance and quarterly earnings growth,” Aramco president and CEO Amin Nasser said.

  The world’s largest oil company reported a free cash flow of $23.6bn compared with $22bn a year earlier.

  Aramco’s board also declared the 2025 base dividend of $21.1bn and performance-linked dividend of $200m to be paid in the fourth quarter.

  Aramco’s capital expenditure (capex) in the third quarter of 2025 stood at $12.55bn, a marginal year-on-year increase of 2%. For the first nine months of the year, the firm registered capex of $37.41bn, an increase of 3.38% compared to the same period of last year.

  The company had earlier announced a capital investment guidance in the range of $52bn to $58bn for 2025, excluding around $4bn of project financing.

  The results come as Aramco faces a profit squeeze amid weaker oil prices, except for a short-lived surge in the second quarter triggered by tensions between Israel and Iran.

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15013288/main5503.jpg

  Indrajit Sen