Egypt gas project activity collapses amid energy crisis
27 February 2025

The total value of active Egyptian gas projects has fallen by 79% despite a steep decline in domestic gas output that has ramped up the need for costly imports.
At the start of 2019, the total value of active gas projects in Egypt was $41.5bn. This has now sunk to $8.6bn, according to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects.
Despite the billions of dollars of investment that has been sunk into upstream projects in Egypt’s gas sector in recent years, production has been dropping after it peaked in 2021, according to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
In 2021, Egypt produced 67.8 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas. This fell to 64.5 bcm in 2022 and 57.1 bcm in 2023.
In May 2024, Egypt’s domestic gas output hit a six-year low, down by about 25% from its 2021 peak.
Declining domestic production has led to a severe energy shortage in Egypt.
Last year, the North African country had to resort to load-shedding to keep its grid functioning amid a lack of gas supply and rising demand, while the deepening energy crisis strained Cairo’s budget as it grappled with a heavy subsidies bill.
In the past 12 months, Gulf countries have had to help Egypt finance liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports worth billions of dollars to try and ease the country’s crisis.
Egypt had planned to become a regional gas hub and a major exporter after Italy’s Eni discovered the Zohr offshore field in 2015.
When Zohr started production in 2017, Egypt’s oil and gas ministry said that the field would produce 2.7 billion cubic feet a day (bcf/d) until 2039, but after rising to a peak at 3.2 bcf/d in 2019 output fell to just 1.9 bcf/d in the first half of 2024.
Production outlook
The collapse in the total value of gas projects in Egypt does not bode well for future domestic gas production – and signals that the country may remain reliant on costly gas imports for some time to come.
In addition, many of Egypt’s biggest active gas projects remain at the study stage with significant uncertainty about when execution will start and new production will be brought online.
A total of $5.1bn of all of Egypt’s active gas projects are currently in the study stage, making up 60% of active gas projects in the country.
Meanwhile, 12% of active gas projects are at the bid evaluation stage and 27% are currently under execution.
Last year, the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company launched an international bid round for the exploration and exploitation of natural gas and crude oil across 12 blocks in the Mediterranean and Nile Delta, as part of an initiative to try to boost production.
The 12 blocks were comprised of 10 offshore blocks and two onshore blocks.
While this initiative is promising, it is expected that Egypt’s efforts to attract bidders could be held back by recent problems with prompt payments to international oil companies (IOCs).
The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) has accrued arrears to IOCs, estimated at $4bn-$5bn.
These debts have arisen due to a combination of foreign exchange shortages, as well as other structural issues, including declining domestic gas production, rising domestic consumption that limits gas export opportunities, and increased subsidies provided by EGPC to the electricity sector.
While gas project activity has plummeted since the start of 2019, oil project activity has seen a slight uptick, according to MEED Projects.
At the beginning of 2019, the total value of all active oil projects in Egypt was $15.2bn. As of 11 February 2024, this had risen by 15% to $17.6bn.
Economic issues are expected to hamper the development and execution of projects in the oil and gas sectors in 2025.
Inflation is rising, the Egyptian pound is continuing to lose value and millions of Egyptians are grappling with a cost-of-living crisis.
Inflation stood at 24% in December 2024 and Egypt’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains high, at 89% for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
The low value of the Egyptian pound is likely to cause significant problems to those that want to execute large-scale projects in Egypt’s oil and gas sectors, as it is likely to increase the cost of importing raw materials and equipment.
In December, the European Commission announced a plan to disburse €1bn ($1.05bn) in loans to help Egypt cover part of its financing needs for the fiscal year 2024-25 and “ensure macroeconomic stability”.
Financial support has also been provided by the IMF, the World Bank and the UAE.
However, with Egypt’s perilous economic situation hampering project development and a failure to execute strategic projects constraining economic growth, it is possible that the North African country will be reliant on significant assistance from its foreign partners for energy imports for some time to come.
MEED’s March 2025 special report on Egypt includes:
> COMMENT: Egypt battles structural issues
> GOVERNMENT: Egypt is in the eye of Trump’s Gaza storm
> ECONOMY: Egypt’s economy gets its mojo back
> OIL & GAS: Egypt gas project activity collapses amid energy crisis
> POWER & WATER: Egypt’s utility projects keep pace
> CONSTRUCTION: Coastal city scheme is a boon to Egypt construction
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Libya signs three oil deals after licensing round17 June 2026
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US–Iran deal sets Hormuz road map17 June 2026
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
US President Donald Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, authorising the "toll-free opening" of the strait and the immediate removal of the blockade, with formal signing set for Geneva on 19 June – with vice-president JD Vance to sign for Washington and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf for Tehran in the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the text was finalised but said Tehran would not implement it until signing, with the strait staying closed in the interim.
Signing versus substance
The signing on 19 June is merely the starting line that will set in motion a partial reopening to traffic alongside a clearance operation to remove the mines laid by Tehran across key sections of the strait.
The memorandum gives Iranian forces 30 days from signing to clear the strait of mines. At the same time, the Pentagon’s estimates appear to suggest that a full minesweeping could take up to six months, even with three dedicated vessels in the region.
Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
Shipping associations are no less cautious, with the Baltic and International Maritime Council calling for verified mine-free routes before volume traffic resumes.
Insurance underwriters are likewise unlikely to relent on prices until clearance is confirmed.
Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
The distinction is legal, not rhetorical, with international maritime law barring tolls on passage through natural straits but permitting the imposition of service fees on vessels passing through territorial waters.
It is through this terminology that Iran is now consistently framing its plans to charge fees from passing vessels through the office of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority – established 5 May and since sanctioned by the US Treasury.
For the Gulf, a 60-day waiver that resolves into an Iranian (and possibly joint Omani) fee regime is a pause in Iran’s tollgate economy, not its end – and would represent a strategic concession for the US, the Gulf and the globe.
Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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